a systems approach to modelling water-energy-food nexus slobodan p. simonović department of civil...
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A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLINGWATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS
Slobodan P. SimonovićDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering
The University of Western OntarioLondon, Ontario, Canada
WEF ModellingConclusions2|
• WEF nexus• New challenges• High level of integration• High level of complexity• Common concerns
• Systems approach • Modelling of the whole system• System dynamics simulation (and optimization)
• Modelling of various scales• Global• Regional• ….
• ANEMI model example
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
WEF ModellingOutline3|
• Challenges of the new/old context• Integration• Systems approach • Example
• ANEMI model• Lessons learned
• Conclusions
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
WEF ContextDefinitions4|• Nexus?
• A center point of something!• A center of various connections!
• Water, energy and food – pillars of global security, prosperity and equity
• Perspectives• Water perspective – food and energy systems are users of resources• Food perspective – water and energy are inputs • Energy perspective – water is the input and food is the output
• Vast individual areas• Policy and regulations often create sub-optimal solutions
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
WEF ContextChallenges5|
• Water-Energy-Food common concerns• Access to services• Environmental impacts• Price volatility
• Growing population• Poverty• Health
• Climate change• Mitigation – energy• Adaptation – land and water
• Management • Enormous opportunities for higher efficiency• Study of the whole complex system• Understanding interactions – it is all about feedbacks
• Scale• 1.4 billion people without access to electricity• 3 billion with out access to modern fuels or technologies for cooking and heating• 900 million people without access to safe drinking water• 2.6 billion do not have sanitation• 900 million people are chronically hungry• 2 billion people lack food security
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
WEF ModellingSystems approach7|
• Consideration of all three areas together• Systems view
• Complexity• Whole system approach• Difficult to translate into government policy making processes
• System structure• Feedbacks• System behavior
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
WEF ModellingExample ANEMI8|
• NSERC Discovery Grant (2005 – 2007) ANEMI ver 1• NSERC Strategic Grant (2007 – 2011) ANEMI ver 2• Project objectives
i. To develop system dynamics-based model of society-biosphere-climate system
ii. To provide support for communication between the science and policy communities.
iii. To examine the effects of climate change on socio-economic and environmental sustainability through the model outputs.
• Interdisciplinary team• Systems modelling – engineering• Climate policy – geography and political science• Economics – economics
• Partners• Environment Canada• Natural Resources Canada• Department of Finance• Department of Fisheries and Oceans• Department of Agriculture
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
WEF ModellingExample ANEMI9|
• Selection of the methodological approach• First workshop • ANEMI model development
• Structure• Sectors• Preliminary results
• Identification of key issues• Communication with the project
collaborators• Selection of simulation scenarios
• Second workshop • ANEMI model expansion
• Economy-energy integration• Model regionalization
• Model use• Scenario analyses• Model limitations
• Third workshop • Model transfer• Future work
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
Water stress Effects: Canada
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Time (Year)
Wat
er S
tres
s E
ffec
ts (d
imen
sion
less
)
Base Condition 2 degree with transfer3 degree with transfer 4 degree with transfer2 degree 3 degree4 degree
WEF ModellingExample ANEMI10|
Carbon
Climate
+
+
Land Use
+
+
Population
Energy-Economy
Surface Flow
-
+
+ Water QualityWater Demand
−
−
+
+
+
+
−
−
Food Production
+
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
Clearing and Burning
Land Use Emissions
Temperature
Atmospheric CO2
Water Stress
Surface Water
Availability
Water Consumption
Temperature
Consumption and Labour
GDP per capita
WastewaterTreatment
WastewaterReuse
WastewaterTreatment and Reuse
Water use Intensity
Industrial emission
Water use efficiency
Pollution Index
Per capita food
Water Stress
Arable Land
Agricultural allocation
Emission Index
Fertility
+
Temperature
1. Carbon cycle
2. Climate
3. Water Use
4. Water Quality
5. Surface Flow
6. Population
7. Land Use
8. Food Production
9. Energy-Economy
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
WEF ModellingExample ANEMI - Equations12|
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
Available water resources Two stocks (oceans and land surface) Flows (evaporation, evapotranspiration, advection, precipitation,
snow and ice melt, percolation, ocean runoff)
dtPAdvEA OMM
dtPPETAdvA SRL dtGPSFETPLS R dtEMPGDSFO MO
dtGDGPGS
dtMPIS S
feedbackMM TEE 0
100/10 advAdvAdv
00
M
MOO AAPP
wlSLR CPPP
gwCLSLSGPGP
00
GWGSGSGDGD
00
WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – global and regional14|
• Global model• Regional model – Canada and rest-of-the-world (ROW)
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – policy scenarios15|
• Policy communication process• Set of interviews• Identification of policy questions by the research team• Identification of scenarios
• Initial set of scenarios• Carbon pricing• Economic growth rate• Water pricing• North American water stress• Irrigation• Energy subsidies and pricing• Land use change
• Final choice• Carbon tax• Increased water use• Food production increase
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – Carbon tax scenario (global)16|
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1011
GJ
Time
Energy Used for Electricity Production
Base
With Tax
0
100
200
300
400
500
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GD
P (
trill
ion
$)
Time
GDP
With Tax
Base
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO
2co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
pp
m)
Time
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
With Tax
Base
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Pop
ula
tion
(B
illio
n)
Time
Global Population
With Tax
Base
WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – Increased water use scenario (global)17|
15200
15300
15400
15500
15600
15700
15800
15900
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Surf
ace
wat
er (
km^3
)
Time
Available Surface Water
Water use increaseBase
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Wat
er S
tres
s (d
imen
sion
less
)
Time
Water Stress
Water use increase
Base
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Foo
d(t
rilli
on k
iloca
lori
e /y
r)
Time
Food Production
Water use increaseBase
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Pop
ula
tion
(B
illio
n)
Time
Global Population
Water use increase
Base
WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – Increased food production scenario (global)18|
15200
15300
15400
15500
15600
15700
15800
15900
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Su
rfac
e w
ater
(k
m^
3)
Time
Available Surface Water
Increase in food production
Base
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO
2co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
pp
m)
Time
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Increase in food productionBase
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Po
pu
lati
on
(B
illi
on
)
Time
Global Population
Increase in food production
Base
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – conclusions19|
• WEF nexus• New challenges• High level of integration• High level of complexity• Common concerns
• Systems approach • Modelling of the whole system• System dynamics simulation (and optimization)
• Modelling of various scales• Global• Regional• ….
• ANEMI model example
Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović
WEF ModellingResources20|
• Simonovic, S.P., and E.G.R. Davies (2006). “Are we modeling impacts of climate change properly?”, invited commentary, Hydrological Processes Journal, 20, pp.431-433.
• Davies, E.G.R. and S. P. Simonovic (2009). Energy Sector for the Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Economic-Climatic Model. Water Resources Research Report no. 063, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 191 pages. ISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2712-1; (online) 978-0-7714-2713-8.
• Davies, E.G.R, and S.P. Simonovic, (2010). “ANEMI: A New Model for Integrated Assessment of Global Change”, the Interdisciplinary Environmental Review special issue on Climate Change, 11(2/3):127-161.
• M. Khaled Akhtar,M.K., S. P. Simonovic, J. Wibe, J. MacGee and J. Davies (2011). An Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Energy-Economy-Climate System: Model Description. Water Resources Research Report no. 075, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 211 pagesISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2896-8; (online) 978-0-7714-2903-3.
• Davise, E.G.R. and S.P. Simonovic (2011). “(2011) “Water Resources and Integrated Assessment Modeling – the ANEMI Model”, Advances in Water Resources (available online: 18 February 2011), 34:684-700.
• www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> fidsExeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović