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A translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis data Wicha SG, Svensson R, Clewe O, Simonsson USH Pharmacometrics Research Group Dept. of Pharmaceutical Biosciences Uppsala University, Sweden

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Page 1: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

A translational modelling and simulation approach

to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis data

Wicha SG, Svensson R, Clewe O, Simonsson USHPharmacometrics Research Group

Dept. of Pharmaceutical BiosciencesUppsala University, Sweden

Page 2: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Global TB drug development pipeline

1

Page 3: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Model-informed Drug Discovery and Development (MID3)

2

Target Authorization and Mechanistic Understanding

Human PK and Dose Prediction

Study Design Optimization

Prediction from/of Early Clinical Responses

Dose Selection and Label Recommendations

Development of a model-based approach to exploit in vitro TB information for translational predictions along the drug development process

Marshall et al. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst. Pharmacol. 5. 2016.

Page 4: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

In vitro rifampicin time-kill curves

3Clewe et al. JAC. 2016.

Rifampicin (RIF) treated log- and stationary phase cultures of M. tuberculosis (H37Rv)

log stationary

In vitro data:Yanmin Hu & Anthony CoatesSt. Georges University London, UK

Page 5: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

The Multistate Tuberculosis Pharmacometric model

4

Culturable

Non-culturable (hidden)

Clewe et al. JAC. 2016.

F Fast growingS Slow growingN Non growing

Page 6: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

in vitro

Hollow-fiber system (HFS)

Translational predictions to streamline MID3

5animal

Murine lung infection model

clinical

Early bactericidalactivity (EBA) trial

Translational predictionin vitro

5

Page 7: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Translational factors

6

Drug-specificMycobacterial growth properties

System carrying capacity

Susceptibility of the mycobacterial isolate

System-specific Isolate-specific

Pharmacokinetics• murine• human

Page 8: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

0 50 100 150 200

02

46

8

Time [days]

Mycobacterial growth properties

System-specific!• Maximum growth “Bmax”• Pre-incubation period of

target system, e.g.– Hollow-fiber: 4 days– Animal: 20-40 days– Clinical: >150 days

F-dominated culture

S / N-dominated culture

Bmax

FSNCFU(F+S)

7

log1

0 Ba

cter

ial N

umbe

r [/m

L]

Page 9: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Consideration of mycobacterial isolate susceptibility

Translational target

Origin OriginMIC distribution

TargetMIC distribution

8

Clinical – reported MIC values for rifampicin

TargetMIC distribution

Page 10: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Postantibiotic effects (PAE)

9

effect cmtCRIF

Gumbo et al. AAC. 51 2007.

Page 11: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

in vitro

Hollow-fiber system (HFS)

Translational predictions to streamline MID3

10animal

Murine lung infection model

clinical

Early bactericidalactivity (EBA) trial

Translational prediction

10

in vitro

Page 12: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Prediction of Hollow fiber system (HFS) experiments

11

600 mg2100 mg4200 mg

Rifampicin regimen

Gumbo et al. AAC 51 2007.

Page 13: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Prediction of HFS experiments

12

Phar

mac

odyn

amic

s

O HFS observations

Phar

mac

okin

etic

s

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

0.0

0.5

1.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 120

24

68

No treatment 600 mg RIF daily

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

0.0

1.0

2.0

RIF

[mg/

L]

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

02

46

8

Time [days]

log1

0 Ba

cter

ial N

umbe

r [/m

L]

FSNCFU(F+S)

Page 14: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

02

46

80 2 4 6 8 10 12

02

46

8

Prediction of HFS experiments

13O HFS observations

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

01

23

4

RIF

[mg/

L]

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

02

46

8

Time [days]

log1

0 Ba

cter

ial N

umbe

r [/m

L]

4200 mg RIF once weekly2100 mg RIF twice weekly

FSNCFU(F+S)

Phar

mac

odyn

amic

sPh

arm

acok

inet

ics

Page 15: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

in vitro

Hollow-fiber system (HFS)

Translational predictions to streamline MID3

14animal

Murine lung infection model

clinical

Early bactericidalactivity (EBA) trial

Translational prediction

14

in vitro

Page 16: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

15

log

10 C

FU/m

L at

day

6

1e-02 1e+00 1e+02 1e+04

12

34

56

7

R2 = 0.96

1 100 10000

12

34

56

7

R2 = 0.98

0 20 40 60 80 100

12

34

56

7

R2 = 0.68

1e-02 1e+00 1e+02 1e+04

12

34

56

7

Cmax/MIC

R2 = 0.78

1 100 10000

12

34

56

7

AUC24/MIC

R2 = 0.93

0 20 40 60 80 100

12

34

56

7

%T>MIC

R2 = 0.04

Murine lung infection model • 4 weeks post infection• 2 - 4860 mg/kg

given 1-6 times in 144 h• unbound murine

plasma PK

Prediction of PK/PD indices from animal studies

Jayaram et al. AAC 47 2003.

Model-predicted PK/PD indices

Observed PK/PD indices

Page 17: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

in vitro

Hollow-fiber system (HFS)

Translational predictions to streamline MID3

16animal

Murine lung infection model

clinical

Early bactericidalactivity (EBA) trial

Translational prediction

16

in vitro

Page 18: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Prediction of clinical EBA studiesrifampicin

17

PharmacokineticsGeneral Pulmonary Distribution Model[1]

PharmacodynamicsMultistate Tuberculosis Pharmacometric model[2]

[1] Clewe et al. Eur. J. Clin. Pharmacol., 2015.[2] Clewe et al. JAC. 2016.

Plasma

Target site

Page 19: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Prediction of clinical EBA studiesrifampicin

18

observed clinical mean EBApredicted mean EBA (p0.05- p0.95)

Page 20: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Prediction of clinical EBA studiesrifampicin

19predicted mean EBA (p0.05- p0.95)observed clinical mean EBA values (p0.05- p0.95)

Page 21: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Prediction of clinical EBA studiesisoniazid

20

observed clinical mean EBApredicted mean EBA (p0.05- p0.95)

Page 22: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Importance of combining in vitro log-and stationary phase data for

predictions

21

Rifampicin EBA day 0-2 Isoniazid EBA day 0-2

Page 23: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Conclusions and Perspectives

The developed translational approach with efficacy estimates only from in vitro time-kill experiments predicted rifampicin effects observed

– across in vitro systems (hollow-fiber), – in animal studies to determine PK/PD indices,– in clinical early bactericidal activity studies

Perspectives– Evaluation of the approach with further TB drugs/combinations– Extension of the translational framework to prediction of relapse

22

Page 24: A translational modelling and simulation approachregist2.virology-education.com/2016/9TBPK/15_Wicha.pdfA translational modelling and simulation approach to exploit pre-clinical tuberculosis

Acknowledgements

23

The research leading to these results has received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking (www.imi.europe.eu) under grant agreement

n°115337, resources of which are composed of financial contribution from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) and EFPIA

companies’ in kind contribution.

Research conducted within the PreDiCT-TB consortiahttp://www.predict-tb.eu