aagw3 zhe guo3

Spatial modeling, analysis and its applications in IFPRI

Zhe Guo ([email protected])

Africa Agriculture GIS Week 2013(AAGW3)

March 11-March 16, 2013

Overview Spatial price modeling

Mapping crop calendar

Trends and spatial patterns of Ag. Productivity

Spatial production allocation model (SPAM)

Poverty mapping

Mapping livestock from household and census data

2

Arabic spatial

Modeling Farmers’ Agricultural Knowledge Spillover

The Economics of Land Degradation: A Way Forward for An Action-Oriented Global Economic Assessment





Poverty mapping


3

Arabic spatial



Fertilizer policy options in East Africa

When developing its regional fertilizer strategy, AGRA requested an assessment of the impacts of three strategies on local fertilizer prices:

1. Reducing the landed cost of fertilizer through collective bulk purchasing by Eastern and Southern Africa countries.

2. Reducing transport costs through improved road and related transportation infrastructure and transport fleet.

3. Reduced transactions costs through improved harmonization and streamlining of border crossing/customs procedures.

Methodology/Data Development

1. Capture Heterogeneity of Location-Specific Effects over a Large Geographic Region. Recognizing that adoption is driven by local realities, such as the effective farmgateprices of inputs and outputs, and site-specific impacts of technologies.

2. Regional Application of a Site-Specific Crop Yield Model (DSSAT) driven by location-specifc estimates of weather, soils and crop management.

3. Collection and analysis of regional transport and market prices (on-going for SSA)

DualCarriageway

SingleCarriageway

Port

Farm

Off-road

FarmgateFertilizer Price?

Pfert, farm = Pfert, port + Build-up costs(Handling + “Barriers” + Transport Costs)

Farmgate Fertilizer Price:

Pfert, farm

Pfert, port

SeasonalRoad

X

NationalBorder

Assessing Farm-gate Prices: 1. Imported Inputs

Core is a transport cost model

Input parameters can include spatial and non spatial data

Involves simulating every transportation path option from starting point to the end point.

The model first identifies all possible paths from the starting point to the end point.

The model calculates the cost of all possible pathways

Only the least cost path is selected

DualCarriageway

SingleCarriageway

Port

Farm

MaizeMarket

Off-road

FarmgateFertilizer Price?

FarmgateMaizePrice?

Pfert, farm = Pfert, port + Build-up costs(Handling + “Barriers” + Transport Costs)

Farmgate Fertilizer Price:

Pfert, farm

Pfert, port

Farmgate Maize Price

Pmaize, farm = Pmaize,market - Transport Costs

Pmaize, farm

Pmaize,market

SeasonalRoad

X

NationalBorder

Assessing Farmgate Prices: 2. Output Surplus to Local Markets

Estimating Farm-gate Maize PricesTransport Costs to Markets Final Farmgate Price

10

IFPRI HPC (80 CPU’s)

CULTIVAR

• Phenology

• Max # of kernels

• Kernel filling rate

*DSSAT Cropping System Model Ver. 4.0.2.000 May 21, 2009; 16:32:33

*RUN 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN MODEL : MZCER040 - MAIZE EXPERIMENT : UFGA8201 MZ NIT X IRR, GAINESVILLE 2N*3I TREATMENT 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN CROP : MAIZE CULTIVAR : McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 STARTING DATE : FEB 25 1982 PLANTING DATE : FEB 26 1982 PLANTS/m2 : 7.2 ROW SPACING : 61.cm WEATHER : UFGA 1982 SOIL : IBMZ910014 TEXTURE : - Millhopper Fine Sand SOIL INITIAL C : DEPTH:180cm EXTR. H2O:160.9mm NO3: 2.5kg/ha NH4: 12.9kg/ha WATER BALANCE : IRRIGATE ON REPORTED DATE(S) IRRIGATION : 13 mm IN 1 APPLICATIONS NITROGEN BAL. : SOIL-N & N-UPTAKE SIMULATION; NO N-FIXATION N-FERTILIZER : 116 kg/ha IN 3 APPLICATIONS RESIDUE/MANURE : INITIAL : 1000 kg/ha ; 0 kg/ha IN 0 APPLICATIONS ENVIRONM. OPT. : DAYL= 0.00 SRAD= 0.00 TMAX= 0.00 TMIN= 0.00

RAIN= 0.00 CO2 = R330.00 DEW = 0.00 WIND= 0.00 SIMULATION OPT : WATER :Y NITROGEN:Y N-FIX:N PHOSPH :N PESTS :N

PHOTO :C ET :R INFIL:S HYDROL :R SOM :G MANAGEMENT OPT : PLANTING:R IRRIG :R FERT :R RESIDUE:N HARVEST:M WTH:M *SUMMARY OF SOIL AND GENETIC INPUT PARAMETERS

SOIL LOWER UPPER SAT EXTR INIT ROOT BULK pH NO3 NH4 ORG DEPTH LIMIT LIMIT SW SW SW DIST DENS C cm cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 g/cm3 ugN/g ugN/g %

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------0- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 2.00 5- 15 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 15- 30 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.70 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 30- 45 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 60- 90 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.05 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.60 0.10 90-120 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.03 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.10 120-150 0.029 0.130 0.230 0.101 0.130 0.00 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.04 150-180 0.070 0.258 0.360 0.188 0.258 0.00 1.20 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.24

TOT-180 6.2 22.2 45.3 16.1 21.4 <--cm - kg/ha--> 2.5 12.9 87080 SOIL ALBEDO : 0.18 EVAPORATION LIMIT : 2.00 MIN. FACTOR : 1.00 RUNOFF CURVE # :60.00 DRAINAGE RATE : 0.65 FERT. FACTOR : 0.80

MAIZE CULTIVAR :IB0035-McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 P1 : 265.00 P2 : 0.3000 P5 : 920.00 G2 : 990.00 G3 : 8.500 PHINT : 39.000

*SIMULATED CROP AND SOIL STATUS AT MAIN DEVELOPMENT STAGES

RUN NO. 1 RAINFED LOW NITROGEN

CROP GROWTH BIOMASS CROP N STRESS DATE AGE STAGE kg/ha LAI kg/ha % H2O N

------ --- ---------- ----- ----- --- --- ---- ----25 FEB 0 Start Sim 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0026 FEB 0 Sowing 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0027 FEB 1 Germinate 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.009 MAR 11 Emergence 29 0.00 1 4.4 0.00 0.0027 MAR 29 End Juveni 251 0.43 4 1.6 0.00 0.091 APR 34 Floral Ini 304 0.44 4 1.5 0.00 0.50






-------------------------------------------------------------------------------0- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 2.00 5- 15 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 15- 30 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.70 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 30- 45 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 60- 90 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.05 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.60 0.10 90-120 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.03 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.10 120-150 0.029 0.130 0.230 0.101 0.130 0.00 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.04 150-180 0.070 0.258 0.360 0.188 0.258 0.00 1.20 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.24












-------------------------------------------------------------------------------0- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 2.00 5- 15 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 15- 30 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.70 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 30- 45 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 60- 90 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.05 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.60 0.10 90-120 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.03 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.10 120-150 0.029 0.130 0.230 0.101 0.130 0.00 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.04 150-180 0.070 0.258 0.360 0.188 0.258 0.00 1.20 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.24







OUTPUT

Phenologyflowering, grain/seed/tuber,

maturity

Yield componentgrain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI

Growthgrain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI

Soilnitrogen balance, water balance,

carbon balance

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 50 100 150 200

Yield(t/ha)

Fertilizer (kg[N]/ha)

Maize Yield Simulation Settings

Resolution: 5 arc-minutes ( 10 km gridcells)

Extent: Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda

Climate: 50 realizations of daily weather from historical monthly mean climate

Yield Model: CERES-Maize in DSSAT-CSM v4.5

Soil: FAO HWSD v1.1 + ISRIC WISE v1.1

Maize Variety: OPV (medium maturity)

Planting window: HC Growing Seasons + IIASA GAEZ v3.0

Fertilizer rate: Basal and topdressing of urea (0, 10, 20, …, 100 kg*N+/ha)

Water: Not managed (i.e., rainfed system)

Estimating Value Cost Ratios (VCRs)

“Fertilizer markets have failed in Africa”

Why?– Scattered and small size of local market

– Weak demand for use with food staple crops

– High transportation cost – poor road and rail infrastructure, particularly in landlocked countries

– Low profitability

Value-Cost Ratio (VCR)

N = fertilizer application rate (kg/ha) y(N) = maize yield with fertilizer at N rate (t/ha) y(N) = y(N) – y(0) (t/ha)

“…IFDC suggests VCR>2 to accommodate price and climatic risks and still provide an incentive to farmers”

World Bank ARD NoteIssue 21 (2007)

fertilizer

x,y

maize

x,yx,y

x,yPrice N

Price y(N)VCR

Maximum VCRs and Corresponding N Application Rates

VCRs in Northern and Central Corridors

Northern Corridor

CountryVCR

(av. max)

Av. N appl. at max VCR(kg/ha)

Maize yield (kg/ha)

Urea price (US$/Ton)

Maize price (US$/ton)

Kenya 3.31 26.0 1,650 446 186

Rwanda 1.54 20.0 1,473 587 156

Uganda 2.17 30.3 2,274 544 114

Corridor 2.80 27.1 1,849 489 160

Central Corridor

CountryVCR

(av. max)

Av N appl. at max VCR(kg/ha)

Maize yield (kg/ha)

Urea price (US$/Ton)


Burundi 4.03 28.9 3,343 601 198

Rwanda 1.71 22.2 1,808 601 146

Tanzania 2.09 27.5 2,607 499 90

Corridor 2.24 27.0 2,584 521 108

Urea Use VCRs: Country Means

Country VCR

(av. max)Av. N appl. at

max VCR (kg/ha)Maize yield

(kg/ha)Urea price (US$/Ton)


Burundi 3.95 29.4 3,266 600 195

Kenya 1.59 26.4 1,203 513 126

Rwanda 1.67 22.4 1,795 601 146

Tanzania 2.18 31.8 2,821 549 117

Uganda 2.38 37.6 2,925 556 104

Region 1.93 29.9 1,943 534 121

Urea Use VCRs: AEZ means

Avg. Max. VCR

Av. Yield at Max. VCR

(kg ha-1)

Av. Fert. Rateat Max. VCR

(kg[N] ha-1)

Lowlands Arid 0.74 897 34

Lowlands Semi-Arid 2.00 1,636 30

Lowlands Sub-Humid 1.97 2,154 26

Lowlands Humid 2.90 3,243 39

Highlands Semi-Arid 2.31 2,414 30

Highlands Sub-Humid 2.65 2,530 29

Highlands Humid 2.80 2,255 28

Region 2.19 2,161 31

(2) Reduce transport

costs

(1) Reduce landed

cost of urea

(3) Streamlinecustoms/

border regulations

Baseline 20% change 50% change

SCEN

AR

IO A

NA

LYSI

S

RA

INFE

D W

HEA

T

1. A

gro

-clim

atic

su

itab

ility

RecommendedFertilizer Rate

No Fertilizer

2.

Yiel

d r

esp

on

ses

to f

erti

lizer

High : 8000

Low : 1

Mean Yield (kg/ha)

4000

3.

Mo

del

ing

of

farm

-gat

e p

rice

s Transport cost: Port toFarm-gate

Transport cost: Capital to Farm-gate

Wheat farming enterprise data

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Wh

eat

pri

ce (

US$

/to

n)

Nominal world wheat price Real world wheat price

International wheat and fertilizer prices

4.

Pro

fita

bili

ty a

nal

ysis

Profitability Sensitivity AnalysisTool (Excel)

Variety: Digelu Variety: Veery

Ke

nya

Eth

iop

ia

Yield Yield

No fert.

100% Rec. Fert.

No fert.

100% Rec. Fert.

Net Economic Return and Potential Production

Country Net economic return (US $/Ha) Incremental net economic return

(%)

T0 T1 T2 T0 to T1 T0 to T2 T1 to T2

Angola -198.60 -85.75 -22.11 56.82 88.87 74.22

Burundi 753.11 1096.98 1362.42 45.66 80.91 24.20

Ethiopia 59.62 173.80 233.87 191.51 292.27 34.56

Kenya 741.03 976.46 1160.50 31.77 56.61 18.85

Madagascar 161.46 239.31 267.92 48.22 65.94 11.96

Mozambique -46.94 29.15 39.20 162.10 183.51 34.48

Rwanda 1131.30 1377.55 1566.96 21.77 38.51 13.75

Tanzania 379.00 554.67 658.47 46.35 73.74 18.71

DRC 171.67 347.30 454.33 102.31 164.65 30.82

Uganda 639.29 903.64 1103.94 41.35 72.68 22.17

Zambia 67.72 310.20 449.48 358.06 563.73 44.90

Zimbabwe -25.72 236.49 400.16 1019.48 1655.83 69.21

Source: CIMMYT – HarvestChoice “Wheat Potential for Africa “ (2011)

General Conclusions• Fertilizer import, transport, and transactions cost have a very strong influence on farm-gate fertilizer prices• Consequently, policies and investments that reduce these costs can have very broad-scale economic benefits• There is high spatial variation in the response to nitrogen application as a consequence of the variation in climate and soils• The confounding of local variation in input and output prices, weather and soil leads to greater spatial variation in the profitability of production and, consequently, on the incentives to adopt new technologies.• While undergoing further validation and calibration, there appear to be many locations in in East Africa where nitrogen application appears not to be profitable** Analysis was limited to urea use only and higher N response can be obtained through a range of

complementary inputs and management practices

Issues and Next Steps On-going validation and refinement using a broader range of

empirical data, e.g., – Improved road network and fertilizer cost build up data– Observed farm-gate prices– Farm level fertilizer use efficiency data– Including P as well as N in crop simulation– Household survey data

Improved empirical estimation approach under development (e.g. Media, vector+ raster) including seasonality (temporal change in surplus/deficit regions)

Now running crop model with historic weather record to assess (climate-induced) temporal variability in productivity and profitability

No plans (yet!) to assemble historic prices and assess joint impacts of climate and price volatility on profitability

Extending data and analytical base to most of SSA

Feedback and collaborative opportunities to improve, extend and apply approach welcomed by HarvestChoice team!





Poverty mapping


21

Arabic spatial



Background

Crop calendar is important:1. to a large number of organizations and individuals who

are concerned with production, marketing, processing and trade of food and feed products.

2. to seed and input suppliers

3. To crop growth modeler

4. To the stakeholders and farmers

Background

FAO (2007) - Many countries, with an emphasis on developing countries, especially Africa. Mostly national-level data, but some

large countries are divided into two or three regions USDA (2006) - Many countries, with an emphasis on Europe, Asia

and North America. Mostly national-level data, but some largecountries are divided into two regions

USDA-FAS (2008) - High-resolution, sub-national data for Russia and Ukraine. National-level data for Argentina, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia,

Iran, Iraq, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, Tanzania, Turkey and Zimbabwe

USDA-NASS (1997) - State-level data for the United States IMD-AGRIMET (2008) Very high-resolution, district-level data for

India USDA-FAS (2003) - State-level data for Australia

Source: Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE)

FAO crop calendarCountry Agro-ecological zones Administrative areas Agricultural practices Crop Additional InformationPlanting period - onsetPlanting period - endSowing / Planting rateSowing/Planting rate unitPreferred sowing/planting periodLength of the cropping cycleHarvesting period - onsetHarvesting period - end

Benin Barre Land Zone Municipalities: Allada, Zè, Tori-Bossito, Kpomassè, Djakotomè, Klouékanmè, Bopa, Dogbo, Houéyogbé, Sakété, ifangni Avrankou, Adjara, Akpro-missérété, Porto-Novo, Agbangnizou, Abomey , Bohicon, Ouinhi,Main crops: cassava, sweetpotato, taro, maize, rice, sorghum, groundnut, cowpea, angole pea, soybean, dohi, Bambara groundnut, goussi, tomato, pepper, okra, oil palm.Maize First season 15/03 20/04 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90 days 25/06 31/07

Benin Barre Land Zone Municipalities: Allada, Zè, Tori-Bossito, Kpomassè, Djakotomè, Klouékanmè, Bopa, Dogbo, Houéyogbé, Sakété, ifangni Avrankou, Adjara, Akpro-missérété, Porto-Novo, Agbangnizou, Abomey , Bohicon, Ouinhi,Main crops: cassava, sweetpotato, taro, maize, rice, sorghum, groundnut, cowpea, angole pea, soybean, dohi, Bambara groundnut, goussi, tomato, pepper, okra, oil palm.Maize Second season 01/08 31/08 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90 days 10/11 10/12

Benin Cotton-Producing Zone of the North Municipalities: Ségbana, Banikoara, Gogounou, Kérou Kouandé. Kandi SouthMain crops: maize, sorghum, rice, yam, cassava, sweetpotato, cowpea, groundnut, soybean, tomato, pepper, okra. Maize cultivation is mostly fertilized.Maize 01/06 15/07 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90-120 days15/09 30/10

Benin Cotton-producing Zone of Centre Benin Municipalities:Bassila, Tchaourou South, Kétou, Main crops: yam, cassava, sweetpotato, maize, sorghum, rice, groundnut, cowpea, soybean, Angola pea, dohi, goussi, tomato, pepper, okraMaize First season 20/03 20/04 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90 days 01/07 31/07

Benin Cotton-producing Zone of Centre Benin Municipalities:Bassila, Tchaourou South, Kétou, Main crops: yam, cassava, sweetpotato, maize, sorghum, rice, groundnut, cowpea, soybean, Angola pea, dohi, goussi, tomato, pepper, okraMaize Second season 01/08 31/08 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90 days 10/11 10/12

Benin Depression Zone Municipalities: Toffo, Lalo, Adja-Ouèrè, Pobè.Main crops: cassava, sweetpotato, taro, maize, rice, sorghum, groundnut, cowpea, Angola pea, soybean, dohi, Bambara groundnut, goussi, tomato, pepper, okra, oil palm.Maize First season 15/03 20/04 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90 days 25/06 31/07

Benin Depression Zone Municipalities: Toffo, Lalo, Adja-Ouèrè, Pobè.Main crops: cassava, sweetpotato, taro, maize, rice, sorghum, groundnut, cowpea, Angola pea, soybean, dohi, Bambara groundnut, goussi, tomato, pepper, okra, oil palm.Maize Second season 01/08 31/08 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90 days 10/11 10/12

Benin Far North Municipalities: Karimama, Malanville, North Kandi MunicipalityMain crops: sorghum, millet, maize, cowpea, soybean, groundnut, okra, rice, potato, tomato, pepper, onion. Rice, potato, tomato. onion is irrigatedMaize 01/06 05/07 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90 days 15/09 20/09

Benin Fishing Zone Municipalities: Ouidah, Abomey-Calavi, Sô-Ava;Lokossa, Athiémé, Comè, Grand-Popo, Sèmè-Kpodji; Aguégué, Dangbo, Adjohoun, BonouMain crops: cassava, sweetpotato, taro, maize, rice, cowpea, groundnut, Angola pea, onion, tomato, pepper, okra, oil palm and coconut.Maize First season 15/03 20/04 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90 days 25/06 31/07

Benin Fishing Zone Municipalities: Ouidah, Abomey-Calavi, Sô-Ava;Lokossa, Athiémé, Comè, Grand-Popo, Sèmè-Kpodji; Aguégué, Dangbo, Adjohoun, BonouMain crops: cassava, sweetpotato, taro, maize, rice, cowpea, groundnut, Angola pea, onion, tomato, pepper, okra, oil palm and coconut.Maize Second season 01/08 31/08 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90 days 10/11 10/12

Benin Food-Producing Zone of South Borgou Municipalities: Péhunco, Parakou, N'dali, Pèrèrè, Nikki, Kalalé, Sinendé, Bembèrèkè, Tchaorou NorthMain crops: yam, cassava, sweetpotato, maize, sorghum, rice, cowpea, soybean, groundnut, voandzou, tomato, pepper, okra.Maize 01/05 15/07 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90-120 days15/08 30/11

Benin Northwest Atacora Zone Municipalities: Ouaké, Copargo, Djougou West, Tanguiéta, Cobly, Matéri, Boukoumbé, Toucountouna.Main crops: yam, cassava, sweetpotato, taro, maize, sorghum, millet, fonio, rice, cowpea, soybean, groundnut, voandzou, sesame, tomato, pepper, okra, goussi.Maize 01/05 15/07 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90-120 days15/08 30/11

Burkina FasoCentre Zone (Central Plateau) The zone covers the provinces of Kadiogo, Bazèga, Boulkiemdé, Ziro, Sapouy, Sissili, Boulgou, Koulpelgo, Nahouri, Zounwégo, Ganzourgou, Oubritenga, Sanmatenga, Kouritenga, Sanguié, and Namentenga.Pluvial agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, cowpeas, tubers), cash crops (cotton) and irrigated crops (rice, vegetable crops) as well as sedentary livestock comprised mainly of small ruminants and bovines. Maize Variety: FBC 6, early for semi-intensive agriculture, roasting maize01/06 30/06 20-25 kg/ha null-null 90 days 01/09 30/09

Burkina FasoCentre Zone (Central Plateau) The zone covers the provinces of Kadiogo, Bazèga, Boulkiemdé, Ziro, Sapouy, Sissili, Boulgou, Koulpelgo, Nahouri, Zounwégo, Ganzourgou, Oubritenga, Sanmatenga, Kouritenga, Sanguié, and Namentenga.Pluvial agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, cowpeas, tubers), cash crops (cotton) and irrigated crops (rice, vegetable crops) as well as sedentary livestock comprised mainly of small ruminants and bovines. Maize Variety: K.E.J. Barka, extra early for traditional agriculture15/06 15/07 20-25 kg/ha null-null 75 days 01/09 30/09

Burkina FasoCentre Zone (Central Plateau) The zone covers the provinces of Kadiogo, Bazèga, Boulkiemdé, Ziro, Sapouy, Sissili, Boulgou, Koulpelgo, Nahouri, Zounwégo, Ganzourgou, Oubritenga, Sanmatenga, Kouritenga, Sanguié, and Namentenga.Pluvial agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, cowpeas, tubers), cash crops (cotton) and irrigated crops (rice, vegetable crops) as well as sedentary livestock comprised mainly of small ruminants and bovines. Maize Variety: K.P.B. Wari, early for semi-intensive agriculture01/06 30/06 20-25 kg/ha null-null 90 days 01/09 30/09

Burkina FasoEast Zone The zone covers the provinces of Gourman, Gnagnan, Tapoa, Kompienga and Komandjari.Extensive rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, groundnut, cowpea, cotton...) and irrigated agriculture (rice, vegetables) and extensive livestock rearing (bovine, small ruminant and poultry).Maize Variety: Espoir, medium cycle for semi-intensive agriculture15/05 31/05 20-25 kg/ha null-null 100 days 01/09 15/09

Burkina FasoEast Zone The zone covers the provinces of Gourman, Gnagnan, Tapoa, Kompienga and Komandjari.Extensive rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, groundnut, cowpea, cotton...) and irrigated agriculture (rice, vegetables) and extensive livestock rearing (bovine, small ruminant and poultry).Maize Variety: FBC 6, early for semi-intensive agriculture, roasting maize01/06 30/06 20-25 kg/ha null-null 90 days 01/09 30/09

Burkina FasoEast Zone The zone covers the provinces of Gourman, Gnagnan, Tapoa, Kompienga and Komandjari.Extensive rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, groundnut, cowpea, cotton...) and irrigated agriculture (rice, vegetables) and extensive livestock rearing (bovine, small ruminant and poultry).Maize Variety: K.E.J. Barka, extra early for traditional agriculture15/06 15/07 20-25 kg/ha null-null 75 days 01/09 30/09

Burkina FasoEast Zone The zone covers the provinces of Gourman, Gnagnan, Tapoa, Kompienga and Komandjari.Extensive rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, groundnut, cowpea, cotton...) and irrigated agriculture (rice, vegetables) and extensive livestock rearing (bovine, small ruminant and poultry).Maize Variety: K.P.B. Wari, early for semi-intensive agriculture01/06 30/06 20-25 kg/ha null-null 90 days 01/09 30/09

Burkina FasoEast Zone The zone covers the provinces of Gourman, Gnagnan, Tapoa, Kompienga and Komandjari.Extensive rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, groundnut, cowpea, cotton...) and irrigated agriculture (rice, vegetables) and extensive livestock rearing (bovine, small ruminant and poultry).Maize Variety: SR 21, medium cycle for semi-intensive agriculture15/05 15/06 20-25 kg/ha null-null 95 days 20/08 20/09

Burkina FasoEast Zone The zone covers the provinces of Gourman, Gnagnan, Tapoa, Kompienga and Komandjari.Extensive rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, groundnut, cowpea, cotton...) and irrigated agriculture (rice, vegetables) and extensive livestock rearing (bovine, small ruminant and poultry).Maize Variety: SR 22; Obatampa, medium cycle for semi-intensive agriculture01/05 15/05 20-25 kg/ha null-null 105-110 days01/09 15/09

Burkina FasoNorthwest Zone The zone covers the provinces of Yatenga, Bam, Passoré, Sourou, Nayala, Kourwéogo, Loroum, and Zandoma.Rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, cowpeas), cash crops (cotton) and irrigated crops (rice, vegetable crops) as well as extensive livestock rearing that comprises bovine, ovine, caprine, asinine and poultry rearing.Maize Variety: FBC 6, early for semi-intensive agriculture, roasting maize01/06 30/06 20-25 kg/ha null-null 90 days 01/09 30/09

Burkina FasoNorthwest Zone The zone covers the provinces of Yatenga, Bam, Passoré, Sourou, Nayala, Kourwéogo, Loroum, and Zandoma.Rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, cowpeas), cash crops (cotton) and irrigated crops (rice, vegetable crops) as well as extensive livestock rearing that comprises bovine, ovine, caprine, asinine and poultry rearing.Maize Variety: K.E.J. Barka, extra early for traditional agriculture15/06 15/07 20-25 kg/ha null-null 75 days 01/09 30/09

Burkina FasoNorthwest Zone The zone covers the provinces of Yatenga, Bam, Passoré, Sourou, Nayala, Kourwéogo, Loroum, and Zandoma.Rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, cowpeas), cash crops (cotton) and irrigated crops (rice, vegetable crops) as well as extensive livestock rearing that comprises bovine, ovine, caprine, asinine and poultry rearing.Maize Variety: K.P.B. Wari, early for semi-intensive agriculture01/06 30/06 20-25 kg/ha null-null 90 days 01/09 30/09

Burkina FasoWest Zone The zone covers the provinces of Houet, Kénédougou, Comoé, Léraba, Balé, Mouhoun, Kossi, Banwa, Bougouriba, Ioba, Noumbiel, Poni, and Tuy.Rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, cowpeas, roots and tubers, fonio), cash crops (cotton) and irrigated crops (rice, sugarcane, vegetable crops) as well as an extensive livestock rearing.Maize Variety: Espoir, medium cycle for semi-intensive agriculture15/05 31/05 20-25 kg/ha null-null 100 days 01/09 15/09

Burkina FasoWest Zone The zone covers the provinces of Houet, Kénédougou, Comoé, Léraba, Balé, Mouhoun, Kossi, Banwa, Bougouriba, Ioba, Noumbiel, Poni, and Tuy.Rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, cowpeas, roots and tubers, fonio), cash crops (cotton) and irrigated crops (rice, sugarcane, vegetable crops) as well as an extensive livestock rearing.Maize Variety: SR 21, medium cycle for semi-intensive agriculture15/05 15/06 20-25 kg/ha null-null 95 days 20/08 20/09

Burkina FasoWest Zone The zone covers the provinces of Houet, Kénédougou, Comoé, Léraba, Balé, Mouhoun, Kossi, Banwa, Bougouriba, Ioba, Noumbiel, Poni, and Tuy.Rainfed agriculture (millet, maize, sorghum, cowpeas, roots and tubers, fonio), cash crops (cotton) and irrigated crops (rice, sugarcane, vegetable crops) as well as an extensive livestock rearing.Maize Variety: SR 22; Obatampa, medium cycle for semi-intensive agriculture01/05 15/05 20-25 kg/ha null-null 105-110 days01/09 15/09

Burundi Central Plateaux Regions It covers 54.5% of the total arable land of the country and comprises the following 9 provinces: 1. Gitega (Mutaho, Bugendana, Gihogazi, Giheta, Gishubi, Bukirasazi and Itaba municipalities) 2. Mwaro (kayokwe, Nyagµbihanga and Bisoro municipalities) 3. KaMixed cropping practices because of limited land and human overpopulation. Irrigation is difficult because of steep slopes. Intensive exploitation of marsh lands. Mixed cropping practices, poultry and goats.Maize 15/09 30/09 40-45 kg/ha null-null 100-120 days01/01 31/01

Burundi High Altitude Region It covers 248,795 ha (9.6% of the total area of the country. It extends to the following 5 provinces: 1. Kayanza in the North of the region (Kabarore, Muruta and Bukinanyana municipalities) 2. Muramvya in the Centre-West (Bukeye and Bugarama municipalitieExtensive bovine rearing. Mainly monoculture because of the existence of large unexploited lands. Irrigation is difficult because of high mountains.Maize First season 15/09 30/09 40-45 kg/ha null-null 120-160 days15/01 15/04

Burundi High Altitude Region It covers 248,795 ha (9.6% of the total area of the country. It extends to the following 5 provinces: 1. Kayanza in the North of the region (Kabarore, Muruta and Bukinanyana municipalities) 2. Muramvya in the Centre-West (Bukeye and Bugarama municipalitieExtensive bovine rearing. Mainly monoculture because of the existence of large unexploited lands. Irrigation is difficult because of high mountains.Maize Marshy season 15/07 15/08 40-45 kg/ha null-null 120-160 days15/12 15/01

Burundi Imbo Plain It covers 175,505 ha (6.7% of the total arable area of the country)It extends to 4 provinces which are: 1. Cibitoke in the Northeast of the country (Rugombo and Buganda municipalities) 2. Bubanza (Gihanga and Mpanda municipalities) 3. Bujumbura-Rural in tVery suited for gravitational irrigation. Relatively reduced cropping cycle because temperature and humidity are favourable for crops. Extensive zone for bovine grazing because of availability of natural pastures. Zone for cultivation of upland rice and oil palm without irrigation.Maize First season 15/09 31/10 40-45 kg/ha null-null 75-90 days15/12 31/12

Burundi Imbo Plain It covers 175,505 ha (6.7% of the total arable area of the country)It extends to 4 provinces which are: 1. Cibitoke in the Northeast of the country (Rugombo and Buganda municipalities) 2. Bubanza (Gihanga and Mpanda municipalities) 3. Bujumbura-Rural in tVery suited for gravitational irrigation. Relatively reduced cropping cycle because temperature and humidity are favourable for crops. Extensive zone for bovine grazing because of availability of natural pastures. Zone for cultivation of upland rice and oil palm without irrigation.Maize Second season 15/03 15/04 40-45 kg/ha null-null 75-90 days01/07 30/07

Burundi Mumirwa Foothills It covers 272,317 ha (10.5% of the total arable land of the country). It extends to the same provinces as the Imbo Plain region and also includes the municipalities: Murwi and Mugina in the Cibitoke province in the north of the country; Musigati, Mabayi, Steep slopes make irrigation impossible. Intensive mixed cropping practices because of overpopulation.Maize 15/09 30/09 40-45 kg/ha null-null 90-100 days15/12 15/01

Burundi Northeast and East Depressions It covers 7.6 % of Nord-East depressions and 11.1% of the depressions is the total arable land of the country. It comprises 3 provinces: 1. Kirundo (Bugabira, Busoni, Ntega,Vumbi and Gitobe municipalities) 2. Ruyigi (Gisuru, Kinyinya, Giharo and Bukemba mSuitable for irrigation in the bordering side of the East with weak slopes dominated by several industrial sugar cane plantations. North regions difficult to irrigate because of small undulating hills with average slopes. Mixed farming cropping especially in the North, monoculture in the East and bovine rearing because of natural pastures. Intensive exploitation of marsh lands in the northern depressionsMaize 15/09 30/09 40-45 kg/ha null-null 100-120 days01/01 31/01

Cameroon Adamawa Plateau Divisions of Adamawa Region: Djérem, Faro and Déo, Mbéré, Mayo Banyo, VinaManual agriculture, with animal traction, monoculture on maize, fertilizer use on maize, mixed cultivation for the other food crops. Mechanized maize cultivation by specialized farmers. Cropping on burnt land.Maize 01/04 31/07 20-25 kg/ha null-null 120-130 days01/10 30/11

Cameroon Coastal Lowlands Divisions of the Littoral Region: Wouri, Nkam, Sanaga Maritime, Mungo. Divisions of the Southwest Region: Manyu, Ndian, Fako, Meme, Lebialem, Kupe-Manenguba.Manual agriculture, mixed cropping for the food crops. Industrial plantations of rubber, tea, banana and oil palms. Flat ploughing.Maize First season 01/03 30/04 20-25 kg/ha null-null 100-125 days01/06 30/07

Cameroon Coastal Lowlands Divisions of the Littoral Region: Wouri, Nkam, Sanaga Maritime, Mungo. Divisions of the Southwest Region: Manyu, Ndian, Fako, Meme, Lebialem, Kupe-Manenguba.Manual agriculture, mixed cropping for the food crops. Industrial plantations of rubber, tea, banana and oil palms. Flat ploughing.Maize Second season 01/07 31/08 20-25 kg/ha null-null 100-125 days01/12 31/12

Cameroon Southern Plateau Divisions of the Centre Region: Mfoundi, Nyong and Kéllé, Upper Sanaga, Lékié, Nyon and So'o, Mefou and Afamba, Mbam and Inoubou, Mbam and Kim, Mefou and Akono. Divisions of the South Region: Dja and Lobo, Ocean, Ntem Ntem, Mvilla. Divisions of the East RManual agriculture, and with animal traction, mixed cropping for food crops. Flat manual plough.Maize First season 01/05 15/04 20-25 kg/ha null-null 100-125 days01/06 31/08

Cameroon Southern Plateau Divisions of the Centre Region: Mfoundi, Nyong and Kéllé, Upper Sanaga, Lékié, Nyon and So'o, Mefou and Afamba, Mbam and Inoubou, Mbam and Kim, Mefou and Akono. Divisions of the South Region: Dja and Lobo, Ocean, Ntem Ntem, Mvilla. Divisions of the East RManual agriculture, and with animal traction, mixed cropping for food crops. Flat manual plough.Maize Second season 01/08 15/10 20-25 kg/ha null-null 100-125 days01/12 15/12

Cameroon Sudano-sahelian Zone Divisions of the Far North Region: Diamaré, Mayo-Kani, Logone and Chari, Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, Mayo-Danay. Divisions of the North Region: Bénoué, Mayo-Louti, Mayo-Rey, Faro.Manual agriculture, with animal traction, monoculture is generally practiced; fertilizer and chemical pest control used on cotton and irrigated rice. Rice irrigation is practiced in Lagdo and in SEMRY company.Maize 15/05 31/07 20-25 kg/ha null-null 90-110 days01/08 30/09

Cameroon Western Highlands West Region: Divisions: Mifi, Menoua, Bamboutos, Ndé, Upper-Nkam, Koung-Khi, High-Plateaux. Divisions of the Northwest Region: Mezam, Menchum, Dongang-Mantung, Bui, Momo, Ngoketunjia, Boyo.Manual agriculture, planting on ridges, animal traction, mixed cropping for food crops. Ploughing in contour lines on hill slopes.Maize 15/03 15/04 20-25 kg/ha null-null 120-130 days01/06 31/08

Cape VerdeLow Altitude Arid Zones Sal (Terra Boa); Boa Vista (Rª de Sta Isabel, Bofareira, Estância de Baixo, João Galego, Cabeça dos Tarafes, Fundo Figueira, Rabil); Maio (Laje Branca- Cascabulho, Figueira Horta- Rª Chico Vaz, Rª Lagoa). São Vicente (Rª Vinha, Rª Madeiral, Rª Calhau, RªRainfed agriculture is marginal. Horticultural production hydroponic greenhouse is in full expansion.Rainfed cultivation of maize, common beans, date palms, watermelon, coconut, and melon. Horticultural production on a small scale.Rainfed maize, common beans. Water distribution not even.Potential for irrigated cultivation of onions and roots and tubers.The pluvial agriculture is limited. Irrigation from wells situated in valleys. Pumping with wind energy from shallow well. Very high salinity especially at the end of season (May - July). The majority of horticultural crops (lettuce, beetroot, coriander, cabbage,..) are cultivated with the dripper irrigation. Very strong winds. Use of wind breaks and cultivation in insect-proof greenhouses (tomato, lettuce, cabbage,..). Maize 15/08 15/09 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90-120 days30/11 15/01

Cape VerdeLow-Medium Altitude Semi-Arid Zones S. Nicolau (Fajã, Rª das Pratas-Fragata, Rª Brava, Caleijão, Queimadas, Juncalinho, Água das Patas)S. Antão: Porto Novo (Rª da Cruz, Alto Mira, Martiene, Lagedos, Rª Fria, Rª dos Bodes, Casa de Meio) - Sud et Ouest; Fogo: S. Filipe (Achada Malva, Patim, FRainfed cultivation in maize and common beans. Pluvial land (35 ha) converted to irrigated areas (Faja Galery). Irrigated crops on wind-protected valleys with micro-climate that is favourable for sugar cane and fruit production. Fruits (mango) on the sides of the valleys with complementary irrigation. High water deficit in some zones according to season. Gravitational irrigation with water from streams and wells. Moderate micro-climate in hot humid season (July - Oct.) conducive for fruit and vegetable production (potato, cabbage, sweetpotato, citrus and mango). Little or no pests with the exception of millipedes. Insufficient rainfall. Irrigation of small farms with water bored more than 100 m deep on slopes. Water pumping from the sea level with several intermediate stations. Potential for roots and tuber production, pineapple, pawpaw and horticultural crops with micro-irrigation. Very high price of water.Maize 15/07 15/08 15-20 kg/ha null-null 90-120 days15/10 15/12

Cape VerdeLow-Medium Altitude Semi-Arid and Sub-Humid ZonesSantiago: Praia (Rªs de Cidade Velha, S. Martinho Grande e Pequeno); S. Domingos (Rª de Baía, Rª de Acahada Baleia, Monte Negro, Lagoa); Santa Cruz (Rª Seca, Rª da Picos, Rª de Santa Cruz); Santa Catarina (Rª Flamengos, Rª do Charco, Rª da Barca, Rª Boa EIrrigated zone especially in the valleys and on terrace slopes. Irrigation from water sources, wells and borings. In the recent years, fruit production has been market-driven with modernization of the irrigation system with drippers.Maize Dry season 01/10 31/05 15-30 kg/ha null-null 75-90 days15/12 30/06

Cape VerdeLow-Medium Altitude Semi-Arid and Sub-Humid ZonesSantiago: Praia (Rªs de Cidade Velha, S. Martinho Grande e Pequeno); S. Domingos (Rª de Baía, Rª de Acahada Baleia, Monte Negro, Lagoa); Santa Cruz (Rª Seca, Rª da Picos, Rª de Santa Cruz); Santa Catarina (Rª Flamengos, Rª do Charco, Rª da Barca, Rª Boa EIrrigated zone especially in the valleys and on terrace slopes. Irrigation from water sources, wells and borings. In the recent years, fruit production has been market-driven with modernization of the irrigation system with drippers.Maize Wet season 15/07 15/08 15-20 kg/ha null-null null null 15/10 15/12

Cape VerdeSub-Humid and Humid High Zones Brava: (Vila, Covoada, N. Sra do Monte, Campo Baixo, Sorno, Ferreiros); S. Antão: Ribeira Grande (Rª Grande, Rª da Torre, Rª de garça); Paul (Rª de Paul, Campo, Chã d'Igreja) - Nord; Fogo: (Mosteiros - Pai António, Igreja). Rainfed cultivation is developed, especially with maize/common beans, manioc, sweet potato and mango. Potential zone for horticulture (especially temperate crops). Sugar cane is the most cultivated. This limit the cultivation of other crops (cabbage, potato, onion, carrot, cassava, potato). Irrigation is mostly gravitational from water sources. Presence of pests, especially millipedes. Rainfed production of maize/beans, cassava, sweet potato and mango. Maize Dry season 01/10 31/05 15-30 kg/ha null-null 75-90 days15/12 30/06

Cape VerdeSub-Humid and Humid High Zones São Vicente (Monte Verde); S. Nicolau (Monte Gordo, Fajã de Riba); S. Antão (Cova, Corda, Covão, Fundão, Pintão, Lombo Branco, Figueiral, Pico da Cruz, Santa Isabel,..) - Centre; Fogo: Mosteiros (Monte Velha, Rª do Iheu, Atalaia Campanas, Galinheiro) - NoRainfed cultivation of some food crops (maize, common beans, roots and tubers, groundnuts and some vegetables (2 cropping season/year). In the altitude there is cultivation of maize/common beans, sweetpotato, and temperate fruits (apple, peach, grape, quince). Rainfed cultivation at the altitude of 600-700 m crops such as maize/common beans, tubers, coffee. Rainfed cultivation of maize, common beans, cucurbits, roots and tubers predominate. The mixed system (pluvial/irrigated is very developed in this zone. There are pre-rainfed crops such as cabbage, potato, lettuce, etc) and some experience with harvesting surface waters and clouds (S. malagueta). Maize Dry season 01/10 31/05 15-30 kg/ha null-null 75-90 days15/12 30/06

Cape VerdeSub-Humid and Humid High Zones Brava: (Vila, Covoada, N. Sra do Monte, Campo Baixo, Sorno, Ferreiros); S. Antão: Ribeira Grande (Rª Grande, Rª da Torre, Rª de garça); Paul (Rª de Paul, Campo, Chã d'Igreja) - Nord; Fogo: (Mosteiros - Pai António, Igreja). Rainfed cultivation is developed, especially with maize/common beans, manioc, sweet potato and mango. Potential zone for horticulture (especially temperate crops). Sugar cane is the most cultivated. This limit the cultivation of other crops (cabbage, potato, onion, carrot, cassava, potato). Irrigation is mostly gravitational from water sources. Presence of pests, especially millipedes. Rainfed production of maize/beans, cassava, sweet potato and mango. Maize Wet season 15/07 15/08 15-20 kg/ha null-null null null 15/10 15/12

Cape VerdeSub-Humid and Humid High Zones São Vicente (Monte Verde); S. Nicolau (Monte Gordo, Fajã de Riba); S. Antão (Cova, Corda, Covão, Fundão, Pintão, Lombo Branco, Figueiral, Pico da Cruz, Santa Isabel,..) - Centre; Fogo: Mosteiros (Monte Velha, Rª do Iheu, Atalaia Campanas, Galinheiro) - NoRainfed cultivation of some food crops (maize, common beans, roots and tubers, groundnuts and some vegetables (2 cropping season/year). In the altitude there is cultivation of maize/common beans, sweetpotato, and temperate fruits (apple, peach, grape, quince). Rainfed cultivation at the altitude of 600-700 m crops such as maize/common beans, tubers, coffee. Rainfed cultivation of maize, common beans, cucurbits, roots and tubers predominate. The mixed system (pluvial/irrigated is very developed in this zone. There are pre-rainfed crops such as cabbage, potato, lettuce, etc) and some experience with harvesting surface waters and clouds (S. malagueta). Maize Wet season 15/07 15/08 15-20 kg/ha null-null null null 15/10 15/12

Central African RepublicCentre Covers the majority of the national territory, between 5° and 9° N and the towns of Bouar (Nana Mambéré), Bossembélé (Ombella M'Poko), Bozoum (Ouham Péndé), Bossangoa (Ouham), Kaga Bandoro (Nana Gribizi), Sibut (Kémo), Bambari (Ouaka), Ndélé south, Bria (Fallowing is practised with bush burning. In some areas the density of trees and shrubs limits deep ploughing. Animal traction is used in the savannah and cotton zones for ploughing and transportation. The cropping calendar depends on rainfall regime. Fertilizers are not used in food crop cultivation. The soil is placed on fallow for more than 4 years. Maize First season 15/03 30/04 15-25 kg/ha null-null 90-120 days15/06 31/07

Central African RepublicCentre Covers the majority of the national territory, between 5° and 9° N and the towns of Bouar (Nana Mambéré), Bossembélé (Ombella M'Poko), Bozoum (Ouham Péndé), Bossangoa (Ouham), Kaga Bandoro (Nana Gribizi), Sibut (Kémo), Bambari (Ouaka), Ndélé south, Bria (Fallowing is practised with bush burning. In some areas the density of trees and shrubs limits deep ploughing. Animal traction is used in the savannah and cotton zones for ploughing and transportation. The cropping calendar depends on rainfall regime. Fertilizers are not used in food crop cultivation. The soil is placed on fallow for more than 4 years. Maize Second season 01/07 15/08 15-25 kg/ha null-null 90-120 days15/11 31/12

http://www.fao.org/agriculture/seed/cropcalendar/welcome.do

The Crop Calendar provides information for more than 130 crops, located in 283 agro-ecological zones of 44 countries.

http://www.fao.org/agriculture/seed/cropcalendar/welcome.do

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars http://www.fas.usda.gov/peca

Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE)

Crop calendar for Maize

Vegetation Index

L is the canopy background adjustment that addresses non-linear, differential NIR and red radiant transfer through a canopy, and C1, C2 are the coefficients of the aerosol resistance term, which uses the blue band to correct for aerosol influences in the red band. The coefficients adopted in the MODIS-EVI algorithm are; L=1, C1 = 6, C2 = 7.5, and G (gain factor) = 2.5.

Crop calendar- Planting date(first season)

Legend

Planting date

0 - 70

71 - 120

121 - 170

171 - 210

211 - 260

261 - 300

301 - 365

Maize area





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Arabic spatial



What is “Productivity”?

Partial Factor Productivity

– Land Productivity

Yield = Output / Harvested area

– Labor Productivity

LP = Output / Total hours worked

Useful measures but: do not measure productivity of all resources

can lead to misleading policy prescriptions

Land and Labor Productivity in SSA, 1961-2009

Labor productivity (2004-06 US$ PPP)Lan

d p

rod

uct

ivit

y (2

00

4-0

6 U

S$ P

PP

)

SSA as a whole: labor productivity >> land productivity; butland productivity increased much faster, more than tripled

As expected, different picture when consider different sub-regions of Africa

Labor productivity (2004-06 US$ PPP)

Lan

d p

rod

uct

ivit

y (2

00

4-0

6 U

S$ P

PP

)

Western

SSAEastern &

Central

Southern

Again, different picture when consider different countries

Labor productivity (2004-06 US$ PPP)

Lan

d p

rod

uct

ivit

y (2

00

4-0

6 U

S$ P

PP

)

Nigeria

South Africa

Ethiopia,1993-2009

Kenya

Ag. Mkt Pop

Pot. Access Density Potential Development Strategies

High High High HHH Perishable cash crops

HHH Dairy, intensive livestock

HHH Non-perishable cash crops

HHH Rural non-farm development

Low High HLH Non-perishable cash crops

HLH High input perennials

HLH Livestock intensification, improved grazing

Medium High High MHH High Input cereals

MHH Perishable cash crops

MHH Dairy, intensive livestock

MHH Rural non-farm development

Low High MLH High Input cereals

MLH Non-perishable cash crops

MLH Livestock intensification, improved grazing

Low High High LHH with irrigation investment

LHH High Input cereals

LHH Perishable Cash Crops

LHH Dairy, intensive livestock

LHH Rural non-farm development

Low Low LLL Low input cereals

LLL Limited livestock intensification

LLL Emigration

Example of Potential Regional Development Strategies

Source: ASARECA Strategy. Omamo et al. 2006

A. Regional Spatial Characterization of

Agricultural Productivity Opportunities &

Challenges

B. Key System Typologies for focusing productivity

efforts (e.g. country x farming system)

C. Representative Farm Analysis of Productivity

Enhancing Options

D. Case Study Analysis of Factors Affecting the Scale

and Sustainability of Productivity Growth

Strategic Opportunities for

Productivity Enhancing Policies &

Investments

Focus Geographies/Systems

Overview of Framework and Sequence





Poverty mapping


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Arabic spatial



Objectives

Providing policy-makers and analysts with reliable and detailed information on livestock

Improving the spatial resolution of information

Showing how integration of different data sources can greatly enhance analysis and knowledge

Using alternative method based on a wide array of data (surveys, census, satellite, FAO…)

Contact: Carlo Azzarri, [email protected]

Data

UNPS 09/10: 2,975 (2,375)* HHs from 322 EAs (out of 783 of the UNHS 05/06), nationally + Kampala&other urban, and rural Central, Eastern, Western, Northern representative. Two visits (one for cropping season), twelve-month period

UNLC 08: 964,047 HHs from all 80 districts (for a total of 8,870 EAs with at least 50 HHs/EA). Visit in February only

(ILRI, IFPRI/HarvestChoice, FAO spatial database)

*45 interviews were not complete; 555 hhs are mover (364 are split-offs and 191 original movers)


Agro-Ecological Zones

Tropic - cool / humid

Tropic - cool / subhumid

Tropic - warm / humid

Tropic - warm / subhumid

Source:


NDVI (Annual mean)

* 10000

< 2000

2,001 - 4,000

4,001 - 5,000

5,001 - 6,000

6,001 - 7,000

7,001 - 8,000

> 8,000


Amount

Stover available for feed = Crop Residue x Utilization Factor

Utilization Factorfrom Uganda HH Survey

Maize: 0.812

Sorghum: 0.840

Millet: 0.776

Rice: 0.485

Global crop-livestock simulation model: stover as feed source

Stover dry matterutilizable as

feed source*

M. Herrero, P.K. Thornton, A. Notenbaert, S. Msangi, S. Wood, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D. Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H.A. Freeman, X. Li, and P.P. Rao. 2012. Drivers of Change in Crop-Livestock Systems and their Potential Impacts on Agro-ecosystems Services and Human Well-being to 2030.

Fodder availability

Source: ILRI (Herrero et al.)

High resolution cattle density from FAO

Source: Gridded livestock of the world, FAO (2005)Data are at 5 km2 resolution (sum of the pixels is scaled to match FAO country total cattle headcount)


Sub-county cattle density from FAO


Sub-county cattle density from NLC 08


Model/1


Model/2


Findings: density of large ruminants/1

survey

census


Findings: density of large ruminants/2

actual predictedR2 .56Adj-R2 .56






Poverty mapping


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Arabic spatial



Arab Spatial: An online database and web-mapping tool with more than 150 food security and development-related indicators

Arab Spatial Development and Food Security Atlas

Clemens Breisinger, [email protected]

Based on consistent conceptual framework of food security for development

Innovative mapping concept and technology Flexible to accommodate any number of layers at national, subnational,

and pixel levels

Dynamic display of indicators over time

Download of maps (as .csv) and meta data (as .xlsx)

Going forward Add tools for cross- and inter-country correlation and trend analyses and

comparative statistics (e.g., scatter plots, bar charts, summary tables)

Link to e-libraries for improved use as data sharing platform

Expand to incorporate country-specific atlases (e.g. “Egypt Spatial”)

Expand to countries in other world regions (e.g. Africa and Central Asia)

www.arabspatial.org

Arab Spatial: What is Special?

Clemens Breisinger, [email protected]





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Why Spillover Matters?

Spillover occurs when knowledge created and acquired by one farmer can be used by another;• Free-rider is a farmer who receives the benefit of a

particular knowledge through spillover but “avoids” paying for it;

• Free-rider causes the private market to supply an amount that is sub-optimal;

• If a third party decides that the total benefits exceed the costs, it can provide the agricultural knowledge and pay for it

John M. Ulimwengu, [email protected]

Our Contributions

Modeling knowledge spillover as a networking process among farmers;

Using seven different knowledge measures;

Computing direct, indirect and total spatial effects of covariate


Ugandan Nat’l Household Survey 2005/2006

• Nationally representative • Covered 7,426 households• Used GPS for households and crops

locations


Ugandan Nat’l Household Survey 2005/2006:

Knowledge Questions & Answers

1. Which of the following crops improve soil fertility by capturing nutrients; making food and putting it back it to the soil? (Answer: Beans)

2. Which of the following cassava planting methods provides better yields? (Answer: Vertically planted sticks)

3. Which of the following methods increase susceptibility of crops to pests and diseases? (Answer: Late season planting)

4. Which of the following crops would follow beans better in a rotation? (Answer: Maize)

5. For best results banana should be left with a total____________ plants in each stool (stand)? (Answer: Three)

6. _________ is the most common pest on bananas? (Answer: Banana weevils)

7. What is the recommended quantity of DAP that has to be applied per hill/hole when planting maize? (Answer: One bottle top)


Empirical model


Concluding Remarks

Failure to account for spillover biases estimation of policy effects;

Free-riding reduces both the willingness and the amount to pay for agricultural services;

Free-riding can reduce both the quantity and the quality of agricultural services;

Possible solutions to free-rider problem:

1. Set up coordination mechanisms such as Federal Business Opportunities (FBO’s);

2. Clearly define and adequately enforce property rights: irrelevant in the case of farmer-to-farmer knowledge spillover;






Poverty mapping


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Arabic spatial



Objectives of the IFPRI-ZEF background study

Assess the current state of knowledge on Land Degradation and its Economics (ELD)

Propose methodological approaches for an integrated global assessment of ELD

Use case studies to illustrate the proposed ELD approaches

Propose a global partnership for the implementation of a global ELD assessment

63 Ephraim Nkonya, [email protected]

64

Quite often, the relationship between poverty and land degradation is not uniform, but context-specific, which necessitates comprehensive approaches involving SLM packages, rather than isolated SLM options.

Land Degradation and Poverty

Cartography: Zhe Guo, using Data from Global Land Cover Facility, Tucker et al (2004), NOAA AVHRR NDVI data from GIMMS

Ephraim Nkonya, [email protected]

Variable Resolution Baseline End line Source of data

NDVI 8km x 8km 1982–84 2003–06 Global Land Cover Facility (www.landcover.org), Tucker, Pinzon,

and Brown 2004); NOAA AVHRR NDVI data from GIMMS

Population

density

0.5o x 0.5o 1990 2005 CIESIN (2010)

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Land Degradation and Population Density


Variable Resolution Baseline End line Source of data

NDVI 8km x 8km 1982–84 2003–06 Global Land Cover Facility (www.landcover.org), Tucker, Pinzon, and

Brown 2004); NOAA AVHRR NDVI data from GIMMS

Government

effectiveness

Country 1996–98 2007–09 Worldwide Governance Indicators:

http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp

Land Degradation and Government Effectiveness


Is it worth taking action against land degradation? (bench marked against Costs of Inaction)

What are the costs of Action against land degradation?

Where and when should Action take place?

– Where costs of Action are lowest?

– Where cost of Inaction are highest?

– Where the impact on human well-being is highest?

– Prevention is better than cure

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Costs of Action vs Costs of Inaction


68

Comparing Action vs Inaction:Some Case Study Results

- Action is less costly -


aagw3 zhe guo3

Documents

local fertilizer prices

transport fleet

analysis of regional

landed cost of fertilizer

market transport costspmaize

regional fertilizer

port buildup costs

market prices ongoing