aaron davis - sintercafe...coffee atlas single page example •shows all humid forest ......
TRANSCRIPT
Aaron Davis
Royal Botanic Gardens Kew UK
Building a climate resilient coffee economy
RESILIENCEthe capacity to adapt successfully
in the face of threats or disaster
Understand the risk
LONDON 2100
Coffee product offerings from Harar
Coffee brewing in SW Ethiopia
15,000,000In Ethiopia
depend on coffee
A CLIMATE RESILIENT COFFEE ECONOMY FOR ETHIOPIATHE STRATEGIC CLIMATE INSTITUTIONS PROGRAMME (SCIP)
Sponsored by the Governments of the UK (DFID), Denmark and Norway
The issues
Ethiopia: increase in mean temp.
1.3 ˚C An increase of 0.28˚C per decade
UNDP Climate Change Profile Ethiopia. Lizcano et al. (2008)
Decrease in season precipitation
15% reduction main growing-season rainfall
Funk et al. 2008. PNAS 105: 11081–11086
© RBG Kew
J. Williams
The challenges
The forest coffee (FC) system
The semi-forest coffee (FC) system
Agro-forestry systems
Sun coffee systems
Ethiopian Major coffee climate zones
Altitude range for Ethiopian Arabica: 1000 to 2200 m a.s.l
East of Rift
West of Rift
The coffee growing environment
Plant biology and physiologyThe coffee landscape
Climate and growing year
Methods and analyses
GIS Specialist Cartographer Coffee Specialist Climate Modeller
Spatial Analyst Vegetation Specialist Spatial data analyst Coffee Producers
Remote sensing via Landsat 8
Coffee forest (maximum)
Niche modelling
Robusta coffee
Distribution data
Niche distribution
Environmental data per grid square
Environmental layers (bioclims)
Potential coffee areas
NMA climate station data
Recording micro-climate variables
Measurement of micro-climate
Data-logger
Mini CS-logger
Coffee model testing and farming survey
Car routes
© RBG Kew
Talking to farmers and communities
© RBG Kew
Assessing stress and vulnerability
© RBG Kew
Bale Mts. Mean temp. to 2100
Outcomes
Adaptation Strategy
WHEREWHAT
WHEN
HOW ?WHO ?
Coffee Atlas
Coffee Atlas
Page layout
•40 pages
•Covering all coffee areas
Coffee Atlas
Single page example
•Shows all humid forest
• Coffee growing suitability
overlaid on forest
• Other GIS map layers
What else did we learn?
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Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jimma
Gore
Badele
Gelemso
Boquete
Ethiopian coffee areas: temperature profiles
Months of the year
Av
era
ge
te
mp
era
ture
in
C
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600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jimma
Dembi
LimuG
Agaro
Sekoru
Tepi
Masha
Gore
Badele
Uka
Metu_Hospital
Supe
Nekemete
Gimbi
Arjo
Dedessa
Bahir Dar new
BahirDarAir
Debre Markos
Bullen
Dembi Dollo Prec
Gelemso
Ethiopian coffee areas: rainfall profiles
Months of the year
Ra
infa
ll in
mm
Start of wet season
Temperature vs. rainfall (soil moisture)
Problem period
Yirgacheffe (Sidamo)1500 m asl
Seasonality is critically important
330 mm140 mm
410 mm
Months of the year
Ra
infa
llin
mm
Bale Mts. Precipitation to year 2100 (warmest qtr)
© RBG Kew
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Jimma
Gore
Badele
Alemaya
Gelemso
Dinkiti
Boquete
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Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jimma
Gore
Badele
Gelemso
Boquete
Months of the year
Ave
rage
Tem
pe
ratu
r
Resilient Arabica cultivars
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a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x z aa ab ac ad ae
Jimma
Arabica selections
Cle
an c
off
ee
kg/h
ect
are
Multi-location variety trials in Ethiopia
Mekasha et al. 2014
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a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x z aa ab ac ad ae
Metu
Jimma
Multi-location variety trials in EthiopiaC
lean
co
ffee
kg
/he
ctar
e
Arabica selections Mekasha et al. 2014
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a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x z aa ab ac ad ae
Metu
Agaro
Jimma
Multi-location variety trials in EthiopiaC
lean
co
ffee
kg
/he
ctar
e
Arabica selections Mekasha et al. 2014
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Metu
Agaro
Jimma
Rai
nfa
ll in
mm
Months of the year
The use of other coffee species
Tricaly sia sp 12320Tricaly sia v erdcourtiana 16183Cof f ea rhamnif olia 13848 TanzPsilanthus bridsonii 19856 IndiaPsilanthus trav ancorensis 19857 IndiaPsilanthus ebracteolatus 15352Psilanthus manii 15351 Mt CamPsilanthus sapinii 16688Psilanthus semseii 15392Psilanthus sp A 20014Cof f ea montekupensis 15353 CamCof f ea liberica 16675 Trop Af ricaCof f ea bakossi 15399 CamCof f ea liberica v ar Dewev rei 16140Cof f ea magnistipula 10Cof f ea may ombensis Kumba 15361 CamCof f ea kapakata 15393 AngolaCof f ea canephora 15368 Trop.Af rCof f ea congensis 15395 W.Af .&.CongoCof f ea brev ipes Kupe 15355 CamCof f ea heterocaly x Nkolbisson 15373 CamCof f ea humilis 16684 West AfCof f ea stenophy lla 15394 W.&.WC.Af ricaCof f ea togoensis 16188 West AfCof f ea eugenioides 13847 TanzCof f ea kiv uensis 16685 ZaireCof f ea sp Congo Mouloundou 19441Cof f ea kimbozensis 13773 TanzCof f ea muf indiensis 13775 TanzCof f ea lulandoensis 13822 TanzCof f ea kihansiensis 13835 TanzCof f ea mongensis 13774 TanzCof f ea f adenii 13772 TanzCof f ea zangeberiae 16162 TanzCof f ea spG 16160 TanzCof f ea schliebenii 13846 TanzCof f ea salv atrix 19445 SW.Tanz & ZimbCof f ea pseudozanguebariae 13776 TanzCof f ea bridsoniae 13845 clone a TanzCof f ea bridsoniae 13845 clone b TanzCof f ea bridsoniae 13845 clone c TanzCof f ea racemosa 15391 Natal.&.MozCof f ea racemosa 19862 Natal.&.MozCof f ea sessilif lora 13777 TanzCof f ea costatif ructa 16157 TanzCof f ea pocsii 13823 clone c TanzCof f ea pocsii 13823 clone d TanzCof f ea millotti 12250 W.MadCof f ea heimii 12324 clone a N.MadCof f ea heimii 12324 clone b N.MadCof f ea tetragona 12232 N.W.MadCof f ea dubardii 12344 N.W.MadCof f ea littoralis 12484 N.E.MadCof f ea mcphersonii 12272 clone b N.E.MadCof f ea mcphersonii 12272 clone a N.E.MadCof f ea mcphersonii 12272 clone d N.E.MadCof f ea augagneurii 12341 N.& C.N.MadCof f ea tsirananae 12729 N.MadCof f ea labatii 19868 MadCof f ea humbertii 12478 W.MadCof f ea grev ei 12256 N.W.MadCof f ea labatiana 12274Cof f ea decary ana 12322 W?MadCof f ea arboinensis 12234 W.MadCof f ea ambongensis 12263 clone b W.MadCof f ea ambongensis 12263 clone d W.MadCof f ea ambongensis 12263 clone e W.MadCof f ea homollei 12227 MadCof f ea lancif olia 12228 E.MadCof f ea kianjav atensis 16692 SE.MadCof f ea commersoniana 12330 S.E.MadCof f ea v ianney i 12345 E.MadCof f ea arenesiana 12482 MadCof f ea v otav ov y ensis 12251 S.E.MadCof f ea resinosa 12321 E.MadCof f ea rakotonasoloi 12259 E.MadCof f ea coursiana 12260 E.MadCof f ea boiv iniana 12317 clone e N.& E.MadCof f ea boiv iniana 12317 clone a N.& E.MadCof f ea boiv iniana 12317 clone d N.& E.MadCof f ea buxif olia 12728 C.MadCof f ea leroy i 12230 clone a MadCof f ea bertrandii 12273 S.MadCof f ea pierrieri 12318 MadCof f ea sakarahae 12481 S.C.MadCof f ea liaudii 12343 MadCof f ea abbay esii 12479 S.E.MadCof f ea andrambov atensis 12270 Mad E.MadCof f ea moratii 21266 MadCof f ea mangoroensis 21267 MadCof f ea humblotiana 12252 ComCof f ea perv illeana 12253 N.MadCof f ea ratsimamangae 12730 N.E.MadCof f ea my rtif olia 16293 MauritiusCof f ea campaniensis 15401 MauritiusCof f ea mauritiana 15400 MauritiusCof f ea macrocarpa 15402 MauritiusCof f ea richardii 12258 E.MadCof f ea manombensis 12732 MadCof f ea leroy i 12230 clone b MadCof f ea f araf angensis 12231 W.MadCof f ea ankaranensis 12233 N.MadCof f ea monthis sacrii 12323 E.MadCof f ea perrieri 20015 MadCof f ea sahaf ary ensis 12254 N.MadCof f ea sambav ensis 12262 N.E.MadCof f ea betamponensis 12268 clone a E.MadCof f ea betamponensis 12268 clone b E.Mad
2117
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112 15
103 11
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42 15
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2 45
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1 24
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5 47
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67 3
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21 7
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311
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32 9
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155
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1366
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102 2
0
West Africa [Canephora group]
East Africa [including Eugenioides group]
Maurin et al. (2007)
Davis et al. (2013)
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There are now 124
species of coffee
across Africa and Asia
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The value of good agronomy
Intervention < Temperature >Soil moisture
1. Mulching ++ (soil) ++
2. Terracing + (soil) +(+)
3. Irrigation ++ (soil), + (air) +++
4. Pruning + (air)
5. Shade ++ (soil), ++ (air) +
Thank you Sintercafé
Thank you