Accepted refereed manuscript of:

Shepherd J, Monroig O & Tocher DR (2017) Future availability of raw

materials for salmon feeds and supply chain implications: the case of

Scottish farmed salmon, Aquaculture, 467, pp. 49-62.

DOI: 10.1016/j.aquaculture.2016.08.021

© 2016, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-

NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

1

Future availability of raw materials for salmon feeds and supply chain1

implications:thecaseofScottishfarmedsalmon2

3

C.JonathanShepherda,OscarMonroigb*,DouglasR.Tocherb4

5

aBluetailConsultingLtd.,Richmond,SurreyTW93NL,UK6bInstituteofAquaculture,SchoolofNaturalSciences,UniversityofStirling,StirlingFK94LA,UK7

8

*Correspondingauthor:oscar.monroig@stir.ac.uk9

10

2

Abstract11

ThecurrentrangeofScottishsalmonfeedsisadaptedtoadifferentiatedsupplyofsalmonproducts,12

includingdifferingomega-3content,differingcontentofmarinerawmaterials,etc.Theprogressive13

replacementofmarinefeedingredientsbyplantproteinsandoilsisreducingthecontentofomega-314

long-chainpolyunsaturated fattyacids (LC-PUFA).However thebenefitsareamoresecureand less15

volatilerawmaterialsupply,togetherwithenvironmentalfeedcontaminantsatloworundetectable16

levels in the resulting salmonproduct. There iswidespreadadoptionof standards and certification17

schemes by Scottish salmon farmers and feed suppliers in order to demonstrate environmental18

sustainability. Thishas focused inparticularonuseof certified ingredients from sustainable supply19

sources(‘responsiblesourcing’).FuturevolumeestimatesofScottishsalmonproduction,hencefeed20

requirements, are insufficient to threaten raw material supply compared with global markets,21

although it is argued this is likely to involve greater use of locally grown plant proteins and an22

increasedproportionoffishmealmanufacturedfromby-producttrimmings(derivedfromprocessing23

fish for human consumption). However, UK retail chains will remain reluctant to allow salmon24

suppliers to utilise land animal by-products due to negative consumer perceptions, with resulting25

implications for formulation cost and flexibility. Given its world-wide scarcity, the main strategic26

concern relates to future availability of sufficient omega-3 LC-PUFA, in particular eicosapentaenoic27

acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), in order to maintain the healthy image of Scottish28

salmon.Tomaintainitslonger-termreputationandproductbenefits,theScottishindustrymayneed29

toconsideradoptingamoreflexibleattitudetousingnewalternativestofishoil(e.g.EPAandDHA30

derived from transgenic oil seed crops,when commercially available). It is concluded that Scottish31

salmon farming is a successful example of sustainable feed development and the industry can be32

confident that the changing rawmaterial base will support continuing production of high quality,33

healthyfarmedsalmon,butthelong-termsecurityofsupplyofomega-3LC-PUFAremainsanissue.34

35

36

Keywords:Atlanticsalmon;sustainablefeeds;fishmeal;fishoil;alternativeproteins;alternativeoils;37

omega-3;EPA;DHA;supplychains38

1.IntroductiontoScottishsalmonfeeds39

40

1.1 Studyaimsandmethodology41

3

Farmed Scottish salmon has a distinct market position, which has implications for feed42

requirements. The purpose of this study was to consider trends in the change in composition of43

Scottishsalmonfeedswithregardtotheavailabilityanduseofkeyfeedingredients,andtoconsider44

theresultingimplicationsforfarmedsalmonsupplychains.Inparticularthestudyaimwastoidentify45

the nutritional, ethical, marketing, and sustainability issues surrounding reduced reliance of the46

salmonfarming industryonmarine ingredients. Inorder toachievethis,over theperiod fromApril47

2014toMarch2015,meetingsandtelephoneinterviewswereconductedwith industryexpertsand48

stakeholdersintheUK,Norway,Denmark,France,Ireland,andtheUSA.49

50

1.2GlobalfarmedsalmonindustryandthedifferentiatedsupplyofScottishsalmonandfeeds51

Salmon farming is themosthighlydeveloped formof large-scale intensiveaquacultureowing to its52

productivitygrowthandtechnologicalchangesincetheindustrystartedinthe1970’sinNorwayand53

Scotland; it represents a highly efficient mechanism for transforming marine resources into high54

quality food that is available on a year round basis (Hognes et al., 2011; Ytrestøyl et al., 2011).55

EstimatedglobalproductionoffarmedAtlanticsalmonin2013wasapprox.1.8milliontonnesandis56

dominated by Norwaywith 1.1million tonnes (Kontali, 2013). Themuch smaller Scottish industry57

(163,234tonnesin2013,Table1)closelyparallelsNorwayintermsoffarmingtechnologyandisnow58

mainly in Norwegian ownership. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for farmed Atlantic59

salmonwas6%onaglobalbasisfrom2003–2013,butisnowdecreasing(MarineHarvest,2014).In60

both Scotland andNorway the growth in salmon farming has resulted in year-round availability of61

cost-efficient, affordable salmon products on a greatly increased scale, while creating wealth and62

sustainable employment, including to remote rural locations; the industry therefore demonstrates63

cleareconomicandsocialbenefits(AscheandBjørndal,2011).64

Table1comparesScottishwithNorwegianfarmedsalmonproduction,feedsupply,andfeed65

conversionrate(FCR)for2013and2014.Atc.13%ofcombinedScottishandNorwegianproduction66

volumein2014,itisclearthatScottishproductionisrelativelysmall.AlsotheScottishGovernment’s67

targetforsustainablegrowthofmarinefinfishis210,000tonnesby2020.Itshouldbenotedthat68

2014Scottishsalmonproductionwasboostedbypremature4thquarterharvestingforhealthreasons;69

asaconsequenceanFCRof1.23appearsunrealisticallylowandindustrysourcesindicateitwasclose70

tothe2013valueatc.1.3.Feedcostsdominateproductioncostsforfarmedsalmonwiththe201371

costofsalmonfeedinNorwayandScotlandforMarineHarvest(thelargestglobalsalmonproducer)72

4

estimatedat50%and46%respectivelyofproductioncosts;thecorrespondingfiguresof41%and73

43%respectivelyforCanadaandChilearemainlyduetolowerfeedcostslinkedtouseoflandanimal74

by-products(MarineHarvest,2014).75

Despite being relatively small in volume compared with Norway and Chile, the Scottish salmon76

industry holds a distinctive position in world markets. Whereas the Norwegian salmon farming77

industryistheleadingworldproducerandexporteroffarmedsalmonasastandardisedcommodity78

product, including to theUKmarket, the Scottish industry, lacking comparableeconomiesof scale,79

supplies more differentiated products at higher unit value to offset potentially higher production80

costs.Theserangefromstandardtohighperformanceproducts1,includingbespokesupplyforniche81

marketsintheUKandoverseas(mainlytotheUSAandFrance).Scottishproductionthereforerelies82

onavarietyofdifferentfeedproducts,includingspecialistformulationstosupportapremiumsalmon83

segment, i.e. higher price salmon products with quality characteristics, including label claims on84

Scottishprovenance,thecontentofomega-3LC-PUFAinregardtoEUintakerecommendations,and85

others(e.g.compliancewithresponsiblefarmingstandards).86

87

2.Changingsalmonfeedcomposition88

2.1Historicalpictureandtrends89

Historicallythetwomostimportantingredientsinsalmonfeedhavebeenfishmealandfishoil,having90

favourable nutrient compositions and reflecting a major food item for a carnivorous species like91

salmon (NRC, 2011). Apart from a need for low levels of essential fatty acids for salmon growth,92

supplied via small quantities of (the oil present in) fishmeal or via fish oil, fishmeal itself is not an93

essential feed ingredient for aquacultureper se, but it provides a near optimal complete feed in a94

convenient, cost-effective, and highly digestible product form (Tacon andMetian, 2008).However,95

thepatternofstagnatingwildfisheriesandthefastgrowthofaquacultureriskedover-dependenceon96

a limited range of feed ingredients, especially fishmeal and fish oil, while the issues involved in97

replacementbyalternativeproteinsandoilsweresoonrecognised(SargentandTacon,1999;Naylor98

etal.,2000).Forreasonsofcostreductionandsecurityofsupply,cheaperalternativeingredients(e.g.99

soyabean meal; rapeseed oil) have therefore been researched and progressively substituted in100

commercial feed formulations, where technically and economically feasible, and after further101

1‘highperformancediets’aredefinedasdietswithhighnutrientdensity,typicallycontainingrelativelyhighlevelsofenergyanddigestibleprotein

5

processing as required (NRC, 2011). At the same time increasingly higher inclusion of oil has been102

madepossiblebyextrudedfeedtechnologyanddrivenbytheproteinsparingeffectofoilpromoting103

growth(NRC,2011).104

105

2.2 SalmonfeedcompositioninScotlandandNorway106

InformationaboutsalmonfeedformulationismorewidelyavailableinNorwaythanScotlanddue107

to reporting requirements and policy issues. However, until recently the same three fish feed108

companiesdominatedfeedmanufactureinbothcountries(i.e.BioMar,EwosandSkretting,although109

Marine Harvest has now also entered feed manufacture in Norway). Therefore, the two salmon110

farming industries are similar with some key differences in response to UK market focus, e.g. on111

omega-3. Thus feed formulation trends are broadly comparable between the two countries, with112

Scottish salmon feeds being more conservative in terms of rate of change and more varied in113

reflecting bespoke customer requirements. Fig. 1 shows the large changes in composition of114

Norwegiansalmonfeedsince1990whenc.90%ofthedietcamefrommarineingredientscompared115

with29.2%in2013(Ytrestøyletal.,2014,2015).116

ThefeedcomparisonbetweenScotlandandNorwayiscomplicatedbytheproliferationofbespoke117

dietsinScotland,someofwhicharedrivenbyexternalstandards(e.g.Organic,LabelRougeetc.),but118

mostly by farm customer requirements linked in turn to retail requirements. Although the119

consultationrevealedaverageScottishsalmondietsfor2013/14comprisedapproximately60%plant120

and 40 %marine ingredients, this obscures the large range of different Scottish formulations; for121

instancein2014c.7,000tonnes(4%)ofsalmonproductionwasmadeforexporttotheLabelRouge122

salmon specificationwith amarine feed content of 51%,whereas there is also significant salmon123

volumebeingproducedapproximatingtolowerNorwegiandietspecifications.Atthesametimethere124

has been amove in Scotland during 2013/2014 towards use of high performance diets of variable125

specification, but generally higher use of fishmeal. The consultation also revealed that nearly all126

Scottishfeedsarebeingcurrentlyformulatedtogivenotlessthan22MJ/kginordertoachievefaster127

growthand improved feed conversion. Typically thisentailsdietswith37% lipidand36%protein128

(with11%carbohydrate/fibre,9%ashand7%moisture),withhighsalmonpricesallowingfarmersto129

invest inhigherspecificationdietsathighercost inordertoyieldhighermarginalproductivity.Asa130

consequencetheoverallaveragemarineproteinandoilcontentofScottishsalmondietsisprobably131

around25%and15%, respectively, (c.f.around20%and10%, respectively inNorway),andwith132

6

higher average eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA, 20:5n-3) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, 22:6n-3)133

required for Scottish farmed salmon. In Scotland (andNorway) there is no use of land animal by-134

products, which account for over 20 % dietary inclusion in Chile and Canada, or of genetically135

modified(GM)ingredients(e.g.ChileandCanadauseGMsoya).136

ThefollowingingredientsarecommonlyusedinScottishsalmonfeeds:soyproteinconcentrate(SPC);137

rapeseedoil;fishmeal;wheatstarch;fishoil;wheatgluten;sunflowermeal;fababeans;peastarch;138

maize; pea protein concentrate; and other ingredients have been used in minor proportions, e.g.139

rapeseed protein concentrate, palm oil, tapioca starch etc., with usage based on least cost140

formulation in order to optimise recipe cost. The volatility of ingredient costs is illustrated by the141

patternofchangingingredientpricesforfivekeyrawmaterialsinsalmonfeedduringtheperiodfrom142

2006to2013,witharisingtrendforfishmeal,fishoil,andsoya,comparedwithmorestablepricesfor143

rapeseedoilandwheat(Fig.2).144

145

2.3Effectofreducedmarineingredientinclusiononfeedsustainability146

The replacement of finite marine feed resources by plant-based ingredients (and fishery by-147

products),isenablingsalmonfarmingtoachievenetfishproteinproductionandpossiblynetmarine148

oil production (Cramptonet al., 2010; Bendiksen et al., 2011; Sandenet al.,2011).This continuing149

trend towards substitutionofmarine ingredients, togetherwith increasing evidence that reduction150

fisheriesarenotbeingoverexploited,contradicts thetraditionalviewthatsalmonfarmingrelieson151

theunsustainableuseofmarineingredients(ShepherdandLittle,2014).Forglobal‘fed’aquaculture,152

thereisanoverallplateauinfishmealandfishoilusedespiteincreasingaquacultureproduction(Fig.153

3),whichhasnotbeenrestrictedby,atbest,astaticsupplyofmarineingredientssince2009.Rising154

demandforfishfeedingredientshasnotthereforeincreasedpressureonwildfishresourcesbecause155

of increaseduseofplantresources.Atthesametimethere isnoevidencethatplantresourcesare156

inherentlymoresustainableforfarmingsalmon,providedmarinefeedingredientsaresourcedfrom157

sustainably managed stocks (or from fishery by-products); hence an increased utilisation of plant158

ingredients may not be as sustainable as generally assumed (Torrissen et al., 2011). However, all159

marineingredientssuppliedtotheScottishsalmonfeedindustryarerequiredbythesupplychainsto160

showthattheyareresponsiblymanagedandrenewable(seesection6).161

162

2.4Effectofreducedmarineingredientinclusiononsalmonnutritionandwelfare163

7

IftheavailableEPAandDHAforglobalsalmonfeedfallsbelow4%ofthetotaldietaryoilfraction164

(equivalenttoc.1.2%oftotal feed), this thenapproachesthe1%riskareaforessential fattyacid165

deficiencyinsalmonandcouldpredisposetohealthproblemsorreducedperformance(Ruyteretal.,166

2000a,b).Thisrisk is likelytobeexacerbatedbythe increaseduseofhigherperformancedietsand167

resulting higher growth rates (NRC, 2011). The implications of falling omega-3 LC-PUFA levels for168

salmonconsumersareconsideredinsection4.Inthecaseofincreasedplantproteinusage,itiswell169

recognisedthattherisksrelatetotheneedtosupplementwithcertainaminoacids(e.g. lysineand170

methionine), whereas the presence of anti-nutritional compounds requires prior processing of the171

raw materials (e.g. by concentration or heat treatment) (Gatlin III et al., 2007). As regards172

micronutrients,increasedplantproteinlevelsmayleadtosuboptimallevelsofcertainminerals(e.g.173

selenium,iodine)andvitamins(e.g.vitaminsA,D,andsomeBvitamins)(NRC,2011).174

175

2.5Effectofreducedmarineingredientinclusiononcontaminantlevels176

The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food Safety concluded that the benefits of eating fish177

clearly outweigh the negligible risk presented by current levels of contaminants and other known178

undesirablesubstances(VKM,2014).Asregardsfarmedsalmon,concentrationsofdioxinsanddioxin-179

likepolychlorinatedbiphenyls(PCBs),aswellasofmercury,havedecreasedbyabout30%and50%,180

respectively, comparedwith the corresponding levels in 2006, due to replacement ofmarine feed181

ingredients by plant ingredients. New fish feed contaminants, such as the pesticide endosulfan,182

polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and mycotoxins are unlikely to be a safety issue, since the183

concentrationsarevery lowandnotdetectablewithsensitiveanalyticalmethods (VKM,2014).The184

health risk associatedwith brominated flame-retardants (PBDEs) is low. In contrast to their earlier185

conclusions, VKM stated that there is now no reason for specific dietary limitations on fatty fish186

consumptionforpregnantwomen. It is likelythatthecontaminantspicture inScottishsalmonfeed187

closely parallels the Norwegian experience, with themain differences due to local UK sourcing of188

fisheryby-products, theslowerrateof replacementofmarine ingredients inScottishdiets,andthe189

greateruseofbespokesalmondietsinScotlandwithhighermarinecontent.Theswitchfrommarine190

to predominately plant-based diets will notmean a greater risk of pesticide contamination of the191

feed, since any such contamination is unlikely to penetrate through the hull, which is normally192

discardedfromoilseedsduringprocessing.193

194

8

3.Globalsupplyandlocaldemandforproteinsandoils195

3.1 Marineingredients196

Fishmeal and fish oil are globally traded commodities similar to other rawmaterials or primary197

agriculturalproductsthathavelongbeenproducedandmarketed;aquaculturegrewtobecomethe198

biggestcustomerforthesemarineresources(JacksonandShepherd,2012).Figs.4and5detailannual199

worldfishmealandfishoilproduction,respectively,byproducingregionfrom2006to2015,withPeru200

the dominant world supplier followed by Chile. There may be a decreasing trend for marine201

ingredientproduction(e.g.fishmealproductionin2012and2013wasaround12%lessthanthe11202

year mean at 4.56 and 4.68 million tonnes, respectively (IFFO, 2014)). Production is subject to203

environmentalinfluencesand,whereasthepotentialimpactofclimatechangeisnotwellunderstood204

(Callawayetal.,2012),acutephenomena,suchasElNiño,havewell-knownconsequences,especially205

for thePeruviananchovy fishery (Shepherdand Jackson,2013).Given thesesupplyuncertainties in206

the dominant southern Pacific anchovy fishery, compounded by increased regulatory focus on207

precautionary catch quotas, continuing growth by major users of marine ingredients (including208

salmonfarming)hasonlybeenpossiblebytheincreasedsubstitutioninfeedsbyotheringredients.209

Basedona2014Scottishsalmonfeedvolumeofc.220,000tonnes,thecorrespondingestimated210

usageofmarineingredientsat40%offeedis88,000tonnes(i.e.requirementsforfishmealat25%211

being55,000tonnesandforfishoilat15%being33,000tonnes).UKandIrishproductionoffishmeal212

in 2014 was c. 39,000 tonnes (T. Parker, United Fish Products, personal communication), but in213

practice at least 50 % of fishmeal requirements need to be imported as some of this domestic214

production is from salmon processing offal and therefore cannot be fed back to salmon. Logistics215

favourScottishfishmeal importsfromIcelandandNorway,whilefishoil isalso importedfromPeru216

andChiletoobtainhigherlevelsofEPAandDHAthanwouldbeavailablefromfisheriesintheNorth217

EastAtlantic.218

219

3.2Plantingredients220

3.2.1Plantproteins221

US World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (October 2015) have updated 2015/2016222

globalcropestimates,asfollows:wheat-732.8milliontonnes;corn-988milliontonnes(basedon223

38,898millionbushels);andsoybeans-320.5milliontonnes(USDA,2015).224

9

The requirement for feeds with a high nutrient density ordinarily favours using plant protein225

concentrates.Thesearemostreadilyavailablefromoilseeds,includingrapeseedandsunflowerseed,226

but the most widely used is SPC. Although their global availability as bulk commodities is not a227

constraint on fish feed (e.g. 2015/2016 estimated global supply of oilseeds is 531 million tonnes;228

USDA,2015),theavailabilityofproteinconcentratesisless.229

Norway’s salmon industry requirements for non-GM soy (as SPC) were 365,000 tonnes in 2013230

(Ytrestøyletal.,2014)andcurrentplantproteinrequirementsforScotlandareestimatedat77,000231

tonnes,over50,000tonnesasSPC.Althoughestimatedglobalproductionofsoybeansfor2015/2106232

is320.5milliontonnes,thisismostlyGMmaterial,whereasEuropeansalmonfeedusesonlynon-GM233

soya products (see 6.1). Currently 5.5 million tonnes of non-GM soya are being grown, mainly in234

Brazil,andsuppliedtoworldmarketsatapricepremiumofUS$80–US$100orc.10%overGMsoya235

(C.Meinich,Chr.HoltermannANS,personalcommunication).GiventhatGMsoyaisusedinChilean236

andNorthAmericansalmonfeeds,requirementfornon-GMsoyforScottishsalmonfeedisc.1%of237

global supply and totals only 7.5 % for combined Norwegian and Scottish salmon production;238

however,theseareunderestimatesastheyieldofconcentratesisc.61.5%ofharvestedsoya.Despite239

itbeinganicheproductandall importedmainly fromBrazil, thereareno indicationsor reasonsto240

suspectthatavailabilityofnon-GMsoyawilldeclineintheshorttomediumterm.241

242

3.2.2 Plantoils243

Plantoilsareincorporatedintosalmonfeedstoprovideenergyandblendedwithsufficientfishoil244

oftheappropriatequalitytogivetherequiredcontentofEPAandDHA.Thepreferredingredient is245

rapeseedoil,whichisgrownintheEU(includingtheUK),butmainlyinNorthAmerica.Rapeseedhas246

beencross-bredtoreducelevelsoferucicacidandglucosinolatesandissafeforhumanconsumption247

(e.g. Canola). Global production of rapeseed oil for 2014/15 was 26.98 million metric tons and248

availability of non-GM rapeseed oil is not a constraint, including from UK crop material (Statista,249

2015).Otherplantoils,includingsoyaoilandpalmoil,havebeenusedatlowlevels(e.g.tohelppellet250

integrity).251

252

4.Omega-3LC-PUFAscarcity253

4.1Introduction254

10

Worldusageof fishoil from2003 to2013 is given in Fig. 6,with increasingdemand fromdirect255

human consumption (so-called ‘nutraceuticals’) appearing to be at the expense of aquaculture.256

Aquacultureuseaveragedaround800,000tonnesperannumuntil2012,butdeclinedtojustbelow257

700,000 tonnes per annum in 2013. Therefore around 75 % of total global supply was used in258

aquaculture,with21%goingfordirecthumanconsumptionin2013.Around83%offishoilusedin259

aquaculturefeedsin2013wasconsumedbysalmonids(60%,mainlysalmon)andmarinefish(23%)260

(Fig.7).261

Althoughpricesforfishoilandrapeseedoilwerebroadlysimilaradecadeago,demandforfishoil262

isnowlargelyaderiveddemandforomega-3LC-PUFA.ThisisshowninFig.2,whichindicatesthatthe263

fishoilpricehasbeenatanincreasingpremiumoverrapeseedoilsince2009whichisdirectlylinked264

toitscontentofEPAandDHA(ShepherdandBachis,2014).Thusrapeseedoil,whichhasnoEPAand265

DHA,isincludedasamorecost-effectivesourceofdietaryoilforenergypurposesonly.266

267

4.2Acuteshortagein2014/2015andlikelyrecovery268

AsaresultofPeru'sindustrialfleetbeinggivenlowanchovyfishingquotasin2014,thefleetcaught269

only2.25milliontonnesin2014,whichisaround1/3ofthecatchinrecentyears(Reuters,2015).This270

severelyimpactedontheglobalavailabilityofEPAandDHAresultinginrecordpricelevelsreaching271

US$2,500 - US$3,000/tonne for high omega-3 Peruvian fish oil delivered into Europe (IFFO,272

unpublished).Table2a indicates2014globalproductionwasonly140,000tonnesofcombinedEPA273

and DHA (compared with a ‘normal’ year of up to c. 200,000 tonnes) giving total availability of274

170,000 tonnes including year-end stock carry-over (afterMeinich, 2014). Table 2b indicates total275

consumptionofcombinedEPAandDHAforsalmonfeedin2014wasc.50,000tonnes,equatingtoan276

inclusion rate in the oil fraction of global salmon feed of around 6 % after taking account of277

consumptionbynon-salmonidaquaculture,directhumannutrition,andtechnicaluses(afterMeinich,278

2014).279

Although the total Peruvian anchovy catch increased to 3.69million tonnes in 2015 (E. Bachis,280

IFFO,personalcommunication),theanchovywereleanerwithaloweroilyieldthan2014duetothe281

ElNiñoeffect;thereforeitisconsideredthatthecurrentanchovyoilscarcityiscontinuingandglobal282

EPAandDHAsuppliesin2015orearly2016maybenomorethanin2014(E.Bachis,IFFO,personal283

communication).284

11

Due to high fish oil prices, non-traditional sources are now appearing on world markets, e.g.285

Sardinellaspp fromnorth-westAfrica (C.Meinich,Chr.HoltermannANS,personal communication),286

although such sources areunlikely tobe satisfactory in regard to certification requirements forUK287

salmon feeduse (see5.1).Highpriceswill tend todampendemand fromprice sensitive segments.288

Demandgrowthforhumannutritionandnon-salmonaquaculturewouldbeexpectedtobearound289

2.5% -5%perannum;however,humannutritiongrowthhas stalled since2013 (A. Ismail,GOED,290

personal communication) and fish oil inclusion in non-salmonid feeds can be expected to fall at291

currentprices.292

Historical precedent provides confidence of a likely strong rebound in Peruvian anchovy stocks293

followingthecurrentoceanicconditionsofElNiño,witharecoverynowlikelyduring2016,inwhich294

caseannualglobalfishoilsupplywillthenincreasetowardsmore‘normal’annualproductionlevels295

approaching c. 1 million tonnes of crude fish oil (corresponding to up to a maximum of 200,000296

tonnesofcombinedEPAandDHA).Historyalsosuggeststhatsuch ‘normal’ levelswillbesustained297

until the next El Niño event, which is unlikely to occur before 2020. Assuming a 2.5% compound298

annualgrowthrate(CAGR)forbothdirecthumannutritionandsalmonfarmingand5%CAGRfornon-299

salmonaquaculturefrom2016,thiswillpermitpro-ratagrowthinEPAandDHAdemand,withtotal300

consumption of 170,000 tonnes in 2016 increasing to 192,000 tonnes in 2020 (including 55,000301

tonnes for salmonbutwith spare capacity to increase to63,000 tonnes). If anotherElNiñooccurs302

soonafter2020,bythentheresultingscarcitycouldpossiblybeoffsetbyanincreasedsupplyofEPA303

andDHAfromnovelsources(see4.6)304

305

4.3MarketsignificanceofchangingEPAandDHAcontentofsalmon306

Onozakaetal.(2012)surveyedthepositionoffarmedsalmoninfiveEuropeancountries(including307

theUK)andfoundthatconsumersregardsalmonassuperiorinhealthinesscomparedtoothermeats.308

CertainUKretailersreportedthattheircustomerstakehealthbenefitsofsalmonintoaccountintheir309

purchasingdecisions,hencenegativepublicityonthehealthbenefitsoffarmedsalmonmightreduce310

demand. However, the health benefits of farmed salmon consumption are not restricted to its311

contentofomega-3LC-PUFA(GalliandRisé,2009;Tocher,2009).Salmoncompriseshighlydigestible312

proteinandessentialaminoacidsandmarinelipids,aswellasvitaminsandminerals,soconsumption313

ofsalmonismorenutritiouscomparedwithconsumingomega-3supplementsalone.314

12

TheGlobalOrganisationforEPAandDHA(GOED)summarizedtheinternationalrecommendations315

forEPAandDHAintake(GOED,2014),whileShepherdandBachis(2014)showedthat,asaresultof316

thecombinedEPAandDHAcontentofaddedoilinNorwegianfeedsfallingfrom20%in2002to7.2317

%in2012,thenumberofdaysrecommendedrequirementmetbyoneportionofNorwegiansalmon318

had fallen proportionately to approximately 6 days (EFSA at 250 mg/day), 3.4 days (SACN at 450319

mg/day),and3days(ISSFALat500mg/day).TheaverageUKconsumereatslessfishthanNorwegians320

andaUKsurveyshowedthat,foroilyfish,averageconsumptionwaswellbelowtherecommended321

one(140g)portionperweekinallagegroups,withmenandwomenaged19to64eatingjust52g322

and54g/weekofoilyfish,respectively(HMGovernment,2014).323

In a recent study of different farmed and wild salmon products available during 2013 in retail324

outlets inScotland,Henriquesetal. (2014)showedthat,althoughwildsalmonproductshadhigher325

relativevaluesofEPAandDHA,farmedsalmonproductsgenerallydeliveredahigherdoseofEPAand326

DHA compared to thewild salmonproducts, due to their higher lipid content, andwere therefore327

betterable todeliver recommendeddietary intake levels than thewildsalmonproducts; thestudy328

alsoconfirmedtheelevatedlevelsofomega-6PUFA,specificallylinoleicacid(18:2n-6),butconcluded329

that18:2n-6doesnothaveamajorimpactonthenutritionalqualityoffarmedsalmonanddoesnot330

outweighthebenefitsofthehighomega-3LC-PUFAlevelsrecorded.331

332

4.4 Omega-3LC-PUFAdifferentiationbyUKretailers333

The consultation revealed there is clear segmentation inUK farmed salmon supply between those334

retailerswillingtoclaimthatoneportionprovidestheweeklyrequiredintake(‘formulatedtodeliver335

high levels of healthy omega-3 long-chain fatty acids’ or similarwording) and those simply stating336

‘variable omega-3 content’ or similar wording. Currently four (out of nine) UK retailers (so-called337

‘premium suppliers’) claimon thepackof someor all of their products that consuming the stated338

portionswilldelivertheinternationallyrecommendedintakeofEPAandDHA,forwhichEFSAwould339

appeartobethe(minimum)targetreferenceofchoice.Forthesepremiumsuppliers/products,there340

isaclear linkbeingmadebetweenthecontentofomega-3LC-PUFAonofferandthehealthof the341

consumer, with the premium suppliers specifying Scottish farmed provenance, i.e. omega-3 has342

becomesomethingofaUniqueSellingPoint(USP)linkedtoScottishproduction.Thisdifferentiationis343

usedasacompetitivetoolbyretailers,butraisesrelatedquestions,suchas:344

13

• The term ‘omega-3 fatty acids’ may justifiably include more than EPA and DHA, e.g.345

docosapentaenoicacid(DPA).Inevaluatingcompetingproductclaims,caremustbetakento346

ensurelike-for-likecomparisons,sinceusingtotalomega-3LC-PUFAcontentgiveshigherflesh347

valuesthanonlyEPAandDHA.348

• Thereisnoindicationwhetherpremiumsalmonisformulatedwithanoverageofomega-3LC-349

PUFAto takeaccountof the reduction in levelsdue tocooking theproduct (whichwill vary350

withcookingmethodandfatloss,etc.),whileintakerecommendationlevelsarebasedonan351

assumptionofwhatisactuallyconsumed.352

• Thereisnoreferencetoomega-6fattyacidlevelsthathaveincreasedinfarmedsalmondueto353

vegetableoilinclusionlevels.354

355

4.5Thechallengetofeedformulation356

Theexistenceofa rangeofbespokesalmonproducts in response to retailmarketdifferentiation357

representsacomplexchallengeforfarmsandfeedsuppliers.FromtheconsultationitappearsthatUK358

feedmillsaddbetween6.5%and8.5%ofcombinedEPAandDHAintheoilfractionofthefeedto359

achieve1.75gina130gfilletportionofsalmon(EFSAtarget),dependingonsalmonbodyweightand360

fat level (orproportionatelymoreassuminga100gportion).The lowerendof theScottish farmed361

rangeisinthenormalrangeofstandardNorwegianpracticeduring2014andisclaimedtobetypical362

ofcurrentUKimportsofNorwegiansalmon(supplyinganestimated60%oftheUKmarket).Atthese363

lowerlevelsthereisnocertaintythattheEFSAclaimwillbemetconsistently(unlessconsumerseat364

more salmon each week) and this lower range corresponds to themajority of UK (non-premium)365

salmonvolumelabelledonthebasisof‘variableomega-3levels’.366

4.6FutureavailabilityofLC-PUFAsources367

GMsourcesofLC-PUFA(EPAandDHA),suchasEPA-containingGMyeast,arebeingusedinChilean368

salmon feeds; ‘Verlasso salmon’ (http://www.verlasso.com/). In addition, commercialproduction of369

EPAandDHAfromGMoilseedscouldbearealitybyaround2020(section8.2.2)(Tocher,2015).Other370

potentialsourcesofLC-PUFAare:371

4.6.1 Fisheryandaquacultureby-products372

Increasing use of fishing industry by-productswill continue to supplymarine ingredients,373

includingfishoil.Therecyclingofsalmonoilforsalmonproduction,whichisprohibitedby374

somecodesofpractice,isbeingusedinaquaculturefeeds(e.g.forgiltheadbream,Sparus375

14

aurata) and could potentially supply c. 150,000 tonnes of global salmon oil. With 70 %376

vegetableorigin itwouldcontainamaximum10,000 tonnesof EPAandDHA, but itsuse377

wouldreducethetotaldemandfromnon-salmonidaquaculture,makingmoreEPAandDHA378

available for salmon. In conclusion, increasedEPAandDHA from fisheryandaquaculture379

sourcesisunlikelytohavemajorvolumesignificanceintheshorttomediumterm(Tocher,380

2015).381

4.6.2 WholecellDHA-richalgalbiomass382

‘DHAGold’ (http://www.dhagold.com/) is a dry biomass sold by DSM as a non-GM feed383

productapprovedforsaleintheEU.384

4.6.3 MicroalgalDHA385

Fermentation of heterotrophic organisms (e.g. Schizochytrium) (Tocher, 2015) requires386

fermentation use of energy-dependent organic substrates (e.g. sugar), with current387

commercialdevelopmentsbyDSM,ADM,Alltech,etc.ThepotentialapplicabilityofDHAto388

salmonfeed isbyblendingfishoil toachieveasimilar1:1ratioofEPAtoDHAasseen in389

wildAtlanticsalmon.AsPeruviananchovyhasan18:12ratioofEPAtoDHA,DHAcanbe390

added toanchovyoil toachievea1:1EPA toDHAratio,beforebalancing theblendwith391

rapeseedoil;hence25-30%oftheresulting‘fishoil’cancomefrommicroalgalDHAbutstill392

remaininthenaturalrangeoffishoilcompositionofwildAtlanticsalmon.393

4.6.4 Longertermoptions394

In the long term it is recognised that cultivationof autotrophic/phototrophic algaeusing395

photosynthesisisthemostefficientsolution,butitisprovinghighlycomplexanddifficultto396

scaleup(Tocher,2015).397

398

4.7OptionsandimplicationsfortheScottishsalmonindustry399

The current shortage of marine sources of LC-PUFA (EPA and DHA) (section 4.2) should start to400

reversesoonandsuppliesare likely tobecomenormalduring2016andthereafteruntil thenextEl401

Niñooccursaround2020,bywhenalternativenovelsourcesofEPAandDHAmaybeavailablefrom402

GMandnon-GMsources;otherwise the current acute shortagebecomesa chronic shortage. Total403

2015supplyoffishoil(includingfarmedsalmonoil) isestimatedat834,800tonnes(E.Bachis,IFFO,404

personal communication) and the expectation is that average salmon feed inclusion will have405

remainedcloseto6%combinedEPAandDHAlevelinfeedoil,correspondingtothebareminimum406

15

needed tomeet EFSAweekly intake recommendation. Themain difficulty for the Scottish industry407

fromthecurrentshortageisifthepremiumsegmentneedstoreassessitsclaimaboutoneportionof408

fish meeting weekly recommended requirements for omega-3 LC-PUFA; if product relabelling409

becomesnecessary,thiscouldnegativelyimpactsalmon’simageasahealthyproduct.410

It is relevant forthe industrytoconsiderthemarginalcostofadditionalEPAandDHA inScottish411

feed.Forexample,assumingthereplacementcostofanchovyoil(c.26%combinedEPAandDHA)is412

US$3,000/tonne and it is necessary to add 7% of the oil fraction of the feed as EPA and DHA to413

reliablymeettheEFSAclaim,thisisequivalentat30%oilinclusionto2.1%ofthetotalfeed,hence414

costingUS$240/tonne.Onthisbasisshouldthemarketbesupplyingonly5%oftheoilfractionofthe415

feed to conserve material, the additional 2 % to regain scope for the EFSA claim would cost c.416

US$69/tonne (or US$34.50 for each percent inclusion of combined EPA and DHA), which may be417

viewedasaminorcostpremiumsetagainstthereputationalcostandrisksofdoingotherwise.Onthe418

samebasis, ifcurrentsalmonfeedcost/tonne isc.US$1,250/tonne,anadditional2%ofcombined419

EPAandDHAatUS$69/tonnewouldincreasefeedcostby5.5%.Note(i)calculationsshouldtakeinto420

accounttheinclusionoffishmeal,whichcontains9%oilwithhighlevelsofEPAandDHA;(ii)ifsome421

producersareusingmoreEPAandDHA,otherswillhavetouselessduetoscarcitylimits.422

423

5.Roleofcertificationandstandardsinresponsiblesourcing424

5.1.Demonstratingresponsiblesourcingofmarinefeedingredients425

Standardsandcertificationschemeshavebecomeimportanttoolstomanageconcernissues,suchas426

economic,socialandenvironmentalsustainability(e.g.GailSmith,2008).ThemainfocusforScottish427

salmon is long-termsustainability fromanenvironmental standpoint,especiallyuseofmarine feed428

ingredients.Anoverviewofthesustainabilityofreductionfisheriesispublishedannually(Sustainable429

FisheriesPartnership,2015)andtherearewell-establishedfoodchainstandardscontrollingprocess430

quality,foodsafety,andaparticularfocusonfishwelfareinScotland(MunroandWallace,2015).431

Indevelopingaconsensusapproachtoresponsiblepractice,theCodeofGoodPracticeforScottish432

finfishaquaculture(CoGP)seeks‘toenhancetheindustry’sreputationforrespectingtheenvironment433

throughadoptionofbestpracticeandgreenertechnologiesandreducingtheimpactonwildfisheries434

byincreasinguseofalternativefeedsources’(CoGP,2015).Inadditiontorecommendationsonfeed435

formulation and use, the CoGP requires that fish-catch supplies used in fishmealmanufacture are436

fromfisherieswhichareresponsiblymanaged,eitherbyreferencetotheFAO(FoodandAgriculture437

16

OrganisationoftheUnitedNations)CodeofConductforResponsibleFisheries(FAOCRF;FAO,2015)438

or the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO) RS scheme (IFFO, 2015), or by another globally439

recognisedstandard.TheCoGPalsomakesfishwelfareprovisions,whichareinfluencedbyhusbandry440

conditions,includinguseofsuitablefeedsandfeedingmethods.441

Todemonstrateresponsiblesourcing,theuseofcertifiedingredientshasbeenadoptedbyScottish442

feedsuppliersandfarmers(SSPO,2013).Formarinefeedingredientsused inaquaculturethereare443

sixcommonlyusedstandards;GlobalGapismorefocusedonfoodsafety,whiletheotherfiveclaimto444

bebasedonthekeyprinciplesunderlyingtheFAOCRF(FAO,2015).TheyareAquacultureStewardship445

Council (ASC) (http://www.asc-aqua.org), Best Aquaculture Practice (GAA BAP)446

(http://www.gaalliance.org/bap/standards.php),FriendoftheSea(http://www.friendofthesea.org/),447

IFFORS,andMarineStewardshipCouncil (MSC)(http://www.msc.org).Formarineingredients, IFFO448

RScertificationisprobablyuniversalinScotlandprovidingevidenceoftraceabilitybacktoresponsibly449

managedfishstocks,avoidanceofillegal,unreported,andunregulatedfish(IUU),andcontrolofby-450

productrawmaterial,withanassociatedchainofcustody.Forsourcingoffishmealandfishoil,the451

followingwererequiredfortheprocessorsandretailersinterviewedduringthisstudy:452

• Traceabilitytospeciesandcountryoforigin453

• Noendangeredspeciesused,asdefinedbytheInternationalUnionforConservationofNature454

(IUCN)‘RedList’(IUCN,2015)455

• Preferenceforfeedmanufacturerstoprovideevidenceofresponsiblesourcing456

• AvoidanceofIUUfish457

458

5.2Demonstratingresponsiblesourcingofplantfeedingredients459

ThreestandardsarecurrentlyusedforplantingredientsforScottishsalmonfeeds:460

• TheRoundtableonResponsibleSoy(RTRS)AssociationapproveditsStandardforResponsible461

SoyProductionversionsin2010(RTRS,2011)462

• ThenewProTerraFoundationStandardVersionbecameeffectiveinJanuary2015andincludes463

soya(ProTerra,2015).464

• Cert ID is focusedonNon-GMOcertification andhasbecome thebenchmark forNon-GMO465

identitypreservation(CertIDEuropeLtd.,2015).466

Theuseofthesethreeschemesforfishfeed,primarilyforsoya,isseenasworkinprogress.Giventhe467

growingrecognitionofpotentialenvironmentalproblems(e.g.rainforestdegradationassociatedwith468

17

uncontrolled soya production, especially in South America), it is perhaps surprising that469

environmentalist pressure has focused on use of marine ingredients in aquaculture and largely470

ignoredplantingredientsuntilrecently.471

472

5.3UKsupplychainperspective-salmonfarmersandfeedmanufacturers473

Itwasclearfromtheconsultationthatsustainabilityissuesareastrategicconcernfortheownersof474

the three principal UK salmon feed companies and lie at the heart of their day-to-day operations,475

includingrawmaterialspurchase;alsothatsalmonpurchasingfirmsincreasinglyobligetheirsuppliers476

to provide evidence demonstrating responsiblemanagement and use of renewable resources. The477

salmon farm and feed-related certifications used currently by Scottish salmon farms and their478

associatedsupplychainsaregiveninSupplementaryFile1.Keyfindingsincludethefollowing:479

(i) Over 90 % of Scottish salmon farms are members of the Scottish Salmon Producers480

Organisation(SSPO)andsubscribetotheCoGP.481

(ii) Widespread adoption of ‘Freedom Food’/’RSPCA Assured’ certification482

(http://www.freedomfood.co.uk/)isaninternationaldifferentiatorspecifying‘sustainable483

feed’andIFFORScertificationofmarineingredients484

(iii) The most widely (but not exclusively) used Scottish salmon farming certification is485

GlobalGap (http://www.globalgap.org/uk_en/),which is focusedon foodsafetyand feed486

assurance.487

(iv) TheASCsalmonstandard(http://www.asc-aqua.org/index.cfm?lng=1)hasreceivedglobal488

endorsementbyMarineHarvestwithtwoScottishsalmonfarmsnowcertified.ASCislikely489

tobeadoptedbyotherScottishproducers490

(v) IFFORScertificationiscurrentlyonlyacceptedinachainofcustodyrolebytheASCsalmon491

standard.492

(vi) TheGAABAPcertification isnot currentlyadoptedbyanyScottishproducersdespite its493

leadingpositioninNorthandSouthAmericanaquaculture(http://gaalliance.org/what-we-494

do/bap-certification/).495

(vii) Greater harmonisation between different standards would be beneficial; the Global496

Sustainable Seafood Initiative plans to benchmark them to facilitate sourcing decisions497

(http://sustainableseafoodcoalition.org/news/new-gssi-website-launches).498

499

18

5.4UKsupplychainperspective-salmonprocessorsandretailers500

To discover salmon sourcing policies of leadingmultiple retailers andprocessors, eight of the nine501

majorUK retailers and two leadingUK seafoodprocessorswere consulted. This confirmed thatUK502

retailsalmonstandardsareacomplexsetofcompetingcodesaimedat increasingretailers’control503

overthesupplychain.AquaculturefocusonsustainablefeedissuesispartlydrivenbycompetingUK504

retailersand is influencedbypressure fromenvironmentalNGOs,whichoftencompete for support505

fromconsumersandsupplychains.Theexistenceofdifferentprivatestandardscancauseconfusion506

(e.g.toretailfishbuyers)andispoorlyunderstoodbyconsumers.Itappearssustainabilityissuesare507

being used as a competitive tool by firms highlighting responsible sourcing credentials, so salmon508

farming and feed standards continue to be driven up; however, this has implications in restricting509

choiceamongdifferentrawmaterialsources.510

511

5.5Relevanceofinput/outputindicesformarineresourceuse512

Althoughthemaindriverforreplacementofmarineingredientsbyplantrawmaterialshasbeenthe513

combinationofnutritional innovationandmarketforces inthefaceoffluctuatingsupplyandhighly514

volatileprice,replacementhasimpactedonthedifferentindicatorsusedtorelatemarineingredient515

input to farmedsalmonoutput.These ‘marinesustainability indicators’ include fish-in fish-out ratio516

(FIFO),marineproteindependencyratio(MPDR),foragefishdependencyratio(FFDR),etc.,andtheir517

usehasbeenreviewedbyvariousauthors(e.g.Ytrestøyletal.,2015).AlthoughFIFOandFFDRhave518

beenusedasaproxyforsustainability,itisnotclearwhythisshouldbesincesustainabilitymustbe519

based on responsible harvesting of fish that are used for fishmeal and fish oil according to520

international regulations (backed up by private standards if necessary).Nor has the FIFO ratio any521

obviousnutritionalbasisanditisnotthereforeameasureofproductionefficiency(Tocher,2015).522

AsoneofitsindicatorsASChasincludedFFDR,calculatedasthequantityofforagefishrequiredto523

produce the amount of fishmeal and fish oil to produce a unit of farmed fish. For 2013 the524

corresponding FFDRs forNorwegian salmonwere 1.54 and0.69 for fish oil andmeal, respectively,525

wellwithintheASCstandardsof<2.95forfishoiland<1.35forfishmeal(Ytrestøyletal,2014);by526

comparisontheequivalent(unpublished)valuesforoneScottishproducerin2013of2.09forfishoil527

and0.76forfishmealwerehigherthanNorway,butwellwithintheASCpermittedrange.528

529

5.6Effectofchangingrawmaterialsonsalmonfarmingsustainability530

19

Asregardsproteinretention,Torstensenetal.(2008)andBendiksenetal.(2011)havefoundsimilar531

levels inAtlanticsalmon fedeithermainlymarinedietsormainlyplant-baseddiets,explainingwhy532

salmon can be produced with feeds containing high inclusions of plant ingredients and only low533

inclusionsofmarineingredients.Changingthesalmondietcompositionfrom88%marineingredients534

to85%plantingredientsresultedinalmostthesamecarbonfootprint(Ytrestøyletal.,2011),which535

supports the view of Torrissen et al. (2011) that increased utilisation of plant ingredientsmay not536

provide an increase in sustainability as often claimed. The increased use of fishery by-products537

influencessustainability;althoughtheyhavelittle,ifany,alternativeuse,theeffectondietarycarbon538

footprintwill dependonwhether the life cycle analysis (LCA) calculationadoptseconomicormass539

allocation. As stated by Ytrestøyl et al. (2015), several methods must be used to evaluate eco-540

efficiencyandsustainabilityofsalmonproductionasnosinglemethodissufficientlyrobust.541

542

6.Scopeforalternativefeedingredients,includinglandanimalproducts,geneticallymodified,and543

fermentationproducts544

Considerableresearchhasbeenperformedtoassessa largerangeofalternativeproteinandoil/fat545

sourcesas ingredientsforaquaculturefeeds, includingsalmon(Gatlin IIIetal.,2007;Turchinietal.,546

2011).Focusherewillbeonalternativecurrentandemergingproteinandoil ingredientsthathave547

large-scale potential in Scottish salmon farming, butwhere there are supply chain concerns about548

theiruseorthetechnicalbasisisnotsufficientlyestablished.Foralternativeproteinfeedingredients549

foundtobesuitableandcost-effective,itisimportanttobeabletoconcentratetheproteininorder550

forittoreplaceSPCinpracticalfeedmanufacture.551

552

6.1Landanimalby-products(LAPs)553

6.1.1CurrentstatusandavailabilityofLAPsinEurope554

Before year 2000 animal proteins were widely used in fish feeds, but due to Bovine Spongiform555

Encephalopathy(BSE),mostanimalproteinswerebannedfromterrestrialandaquaticanimalfeeds.556

From June2013,due to improved testingmethods,useofnon-ruminantProcessedAnimalProtein557

(PAP)hasbeenapprovedforuseinaquacultureintheEU(Regulation56/2013).Thefollowingarethe558

mainnon-ruminantPAPproductsintheUKandEUnowlegallyavailableforinclusioninaquaculture559

feeds: Poultry PAP; Feather meal PAP; Porcine PAP; Porcine blood meal PAP; and Porcine blood560

products.EUproductionofpoultry-derivedPAPandofporcinePAPandbloodproductsin2013was561

20

365,000 tonnes and 275,000 tonnes, respectively (Woodgate, 2014). To ensure lack of ruminant562

proteincontamination,segregation,security,andtraceabilityof‘Category3’animalby-productsisthe563

subjectofdetailedcontrolsattheslaughterhouseanddownstream.564

565

6.1.2.CurrentuseofLAPsinsalmonfeed566

Despitethelegalrelaxation,since2001noLAPshavebeenusedinsalmonfeedsinEurope,witha567

markedreluctancebysupplychainstoincorporateanimalby-productsinfeedforfarmedsalmon(see568

6.1.4), despite technical benefits (e.g. blood meal’s histidine content preventing cataracts). The569

situation outside Europe with fewer BSE-related problems is very different (e.g. current Chilean570

salmondietformulationswith3%poultryoiland19%LAPs).571

A voluntary ban on use of LAPs in salmon feed in UK (and Norway) is reinforced by the CoGP572

prohibiting useof LAPs in Scottish salmon. This strict policy appears contradictory in viewof retail573

supplyofimportedfarmedwarmwaterprawns(Penaeusspp.),‘RiverCobbler’(Pangasiusspp.),and574

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) from enhancement programmes,whichmay all have been fed575

LAPs. The rationale of the ban is fear of negative consumer reaction, variously linked to: BSE576

concerns,thehorsemeatcontaminationissue,thesupposed‘unnaturalness’ofsuchingredients,and577

associationsofanimalby-productswithuseofwastematerialotherwisedestinedforlandfilldisposal.578

The retailers consulted pointed out this is not a food safety issue andwould give access to global579

salmon production, but accept their customers do not wish the policy to change. All respondents580

referredtotheconstraintsofhalalandkosherrequirements,whichprohibituseofporcinematerial581

(e.g.pigblood),hencefurthersupplychainsegregation.Inpracticethismeansthatusecouldonlybe582

made of poultry products, such as poultry offal meal, feather meal and poultry oil. The non-583

governmental organisations (NGOs) consulted supported the use of LAPs in salmon feed as584

representingasustainablesolution;alsotheASCsalmonfarmingstandardsupportstheuseofLAPs.585

586

6.1.3ConclusionsandimplicationsforLAPs/PAP587

Consultation,especiallywithretailers,showedstrongresistancetousingLAPsinsalmonfeedbyUK588

andcontinentalEuropeanconsumers. It isthereforenotunderconsideration inScotlandandthis is589

unlikelytochangeintheforeseeablefuture,despitetheEUhavingremovedlegalobstaclesforPAP590

use.Ifthisisreconsideredinthefuture,robustsourceassuranceguaranteeswouldberequiredand591

porcine material would need to be excluded. As regards cost savings from an open salmon feed592

21

formulationwithpoultryby-products,estimatesfromfeedcompaniesconsultedwereintherangeof593

£60-£80/tonne(i.e.upto10%offeedcost),dependingonfeedsizeandspecification.594

595

6.2.Useofgeneticallymodifiedfeedingredients596

6.2.1ScopeforGMproteiningredients597

6.2.1.1UKuseinlandanimalfeedsversussalmonfeeds598

Following supply concerns about non-GM soybeans in 2013, all but one of the eight UK retailers599

consultedchangedtheirsourcingpoliciestopermittheinclusionofGMplantingredientsinterrestrial600

livestockfeeds,especiallyforchicken.AlthoughinclusionofapprovedGMfeedingredientsis legally601

permissible intheUK,currentlysalmonproducersandfeedcompanieshaveastrictnon-GMpolicy.602

Thisappearstoreflectthefollowing:603

(i) NegativeconsumerattitudestoGMinEurope,especiallyinFrance,Germany,Austriaand604

Italy,withpotentiallysevereexportimplicationsforScottishsalmon.605

(ii) Thecurrentlackofaclearcommercialdisadvantagetosourcingnon-GMingredients,such606

asreducedavailabilityandsubstantiallyincreasedcostfornon-GMSPC.607

(iii) Thecurrentconsensustomaintainingnon-GMfedsalmonstatusinScotlandbeingshared608

by the SSPO, someNGOs, and the Scottish Government, as part of a ‘green and clean’609

stance(whileEnglishandWelshGovernmentpoliciesonGMaremoreflexible).610

(iv) TheNorwegiansalmonfarmingindustryhasanon-GMpolicy.611

However,sevenoftheeightUKretailrespondentsconsultedwerewillingtoconsideradoptingamore612

flexibleGMfeedpolicyifmarketcircumstanceschanged.TheyacceptedthatUKconsumerattitudes613

werebecoming lesshostiletoGM,butthe largestsupplychainconcernrelatestotheriskof losing614

keyexportmarkets,especiallyFrance.615

616

6.2.1.2 Availabilityofnon-GMproteins617

Asshownin3.2.1,althoughthe5.5milliontonnesofnon-GMsoyprotein is lessthan3%ofglobal618

soyasupplies,dominatedbyGMmaterial,thereisnocurrentthreattoavailability,orsufficientofa619

price driver for switching to GM SPC in salmon feeds. Discussions in Norway about whether it is620

logistically possible to supply GM and non-GM feed at the same time by using different mills621

concluded this ismore amatter of policy and additional cost than logistics, but itwould bemore622

difficult(butpossible)tosegregatetheresultingfishstreamspost-harvest.This isnotseenasbeing623

22

feasibleinScotlandandanymovetoabandonthenon-GMpolicywouldneedtobeagreedjointlyby624

allthreeUKfeedproducers.625

626

6.2.2ScopeforGMoilcontainingEPAandDHA627

Commercial productionof so-called ‘Verlasso’ salmon in Chile involves theuseof yeast,whichhas628

beengeneticallymodifiedtoproduceEPA(Xueetal.,2013).Thetransgenicyeastcellsareproduced629

byfermentationusingglucoseandkilledbeforethewholedeadcellsareaddedtosalmonfeedasa630

partialreplacementforfishoil(Hatlenetal.,2012;Bergeetal.,2013).631

Camelinaoil(fromtheoilseedcropFalseFlax,Camelinasativa)hasbeensuggestedascommercially632

suitableforsalmonfeedssinceitcontainsabout30%α-linolenicacid(aprecursorofEPAandDHA),633

with relatively low levelsofomega-6PUFA,andhasbeenusedexperimentally to replace fishoil in634

salmon diets (Hixson et al., 2014). However, it is the recent success in producing EPA andDHA at635

levels equivalent to those in fish oil by inserting algal DNA into Camelina that has aroused most636

interest(Ruiz-Lopezetal.,2014)(http://www.rothamsted.ac.uk/camelina).Ithasbeenestimatedthat637

1hectareofthenewtransgeniccropwouldproduceabout750kgofoilcontainingaround12%EPA638

and8%DHAanditshouldbehighlyscalable,hence1millionhectarescouldproduce750,000tonnes639

ofoilor150,000tonnesofEPAandDHA(Ruiz-Lopezetal.,2014).OilfromtransgenicCamelinahas640

been demonstrated to successfully replace fish oil in feeds for Atlantic salmon (Betancor et al.,641

2015a,b). Although the European Parliament agreed in January 2015 to allow individual member642

states todetermine theirGMpolicy, regulatoryapproval forgrowing the transgenic cropwouldbe643

simpleroutsidetheEU(e.g.inCanadaorUSA).TransgenicoilmightbecomeavailableintheUK(and644

NorwayviaitsEUagreements)byaround2020,subjecttocommercialagreementsandtoregulatory645

approval in the country where the crop is grown and in the EU as a GM feed additive. A similar646

timescaleseemslikelyfortheproductionofEPAandDHAfromtransgeniccanola(rapeseed)byajoint647

venture between BASF and Cargill. In Australia the focus on transgenic canola is mainly on DHA648

(Kitessaetal.,2014)withclaimsthatcommercialsupplycouldbeavailableby2017(CSIRO,2013).The649

existenceofanentire logisticalsystemforhandlingoilseedproductsmeansthatthesupplychain is650

already present and GM oil’s production cost need be no higher than conventional oilseeds. The651

continuing decline in EPA and DHA levels is a potential driver for change if GM oil becomes652

commerciallyavailableandthe lackofanycellularmaterial,protein,ornucleicacid inoilmayhelp653

marketacceptance.654

23

655

6.2.3ConclusionsandimplicationsforGMfeedingredients656

Unless non-GM protein becomes less competitive in terms of supply and price, given the current657

premiumfornon-GMSPC(usedat20%-30%ofthediet) isunder10%,thereis littlecommercial658

incentive for the Scottish industry to change policy today. The position with omega-3 LC-PUFA is659

differentasthepotentialcommercialavailabilityofGMoilseedcropsourcesbyaround2020offersa660

potential technical solution to a chronic shortage, which might otherwise undermine the healthy661

profileofScottishfarmedsalmon.AswitchtousingGMoilmightbeseenasworthwhiletoavoidthe662

riskoffishoilsupplyinterruptions,ifandwhentransgenicoilsbecomecommerciallyavailable.Ifthe663

nextElNiñocausesarepeatofthecurrentacutescarcity,andconsumerattitudescontinuetosoften,664

itmightbecomeappropriateforpolicy-makersandtheindustryinScotlandtoreviewcurrentpolicy,665

butthepotentialrisktosalmonexportmarkets,especiallyFrance,fromusingGMfeedingredientsis666

likelytobeakeycommercialconsideration.667

668

6.3 Useofnovelnon-GMfeedingredients669

6.3.1Insect-basedfeedingredients670

Sincewild salmoneat insectsduring the freshwater stage, there is currentR&D investmenton the671

potential of using insects as safe and healthy ingredients for salmon feed. Makkar et al. (2014)672

reviewedexistingresearchonfivemajorinsectspeciesthatareclaimedtohavepotentialforanimal673

feedconcludingthatblacksoldierflylarvaehavemostpromiseforreplacingsoybeanmealinpigand674

poultrydiets.Therecent‘Aquafly’projectinNorwayisexploringthepotentialtotailorinsectnutrient675

profile to meet salmon nutritional requirements (http://nifes.no/en/counting-insects-future-fish-676

feeds/). It is claimed that many insect species are highly nutritious and their production has less677

environmentalimpactcomparedwithtraditionalsourcesofanimalprotein.AtanEUlevel,EFSAhas678

beencommissionedtoreviewavailablesafetyevidencearoundinsectprotein,whiletheCommission679

is fundingthePROteINSECTproject to investigatequality,safety,processes,andhumanacceptance680

around the use of insects in animal feed (http://www.proteinsect.eu). In addition to salmon681

nutritional studies, there is a need for cost-effectivemass insect-rearing facilities and a regulatory682

frameworkand sanitaryprocedures for the safeuseofbio-wastes (includingmanaging the risksof683

diseases, heavy metals and pesticides, etc.). The scope for insect use as a potential protein684

replacementinsalmonfeedsisclearlyatanearlystageofevaluation.685

24

686

6.3.2Fermentationproducts687

As an alternative to DHA-rich algal biomass produced by fermentation of non-GM heterotrophic688

organisms,thecurrentlowcostofenergyhasrenewedinterestinnaturalproprietaryfermentationas689

ameansofproducingmicrobialproteinbasedonmethaneasthemainsourceofcarbonandenergy.690

InparticularMethylococcuscapsulatus,anaturallyoccurringsinglecellorganism,isnowbeingused691

toproduceastablepowderordrypelletedproductwith71%protein,10%fat,and<1%fibre,anda692

shelflifeofoverayear.Theresultingproduct(‘FeedKind’TM)isalreadyapprovedforuseintheEUand693

itisclaimedthatitwillbereleasedcommerciallyin2018andproveasuperioralternativetofishmeal694

and soy in aquaculture diets (http://calystanutrition.com/feedkind-protein/). Assuming the product695

provescost-effectiveinuse,thishassomeclearadvantagestoconventionalproteinsourcesinsalmon696

feeds. Itremainstobeseen if theproductwill remainfeasible inpractice ifandwhenenergycosts697

escalateoncemore, although themanufacturers claim they could switch to alternative feedstocks,698

suchasbiogas.699

700

7.Projectedforwardrequirementsforsalmonfeedingredients701

7.1 Futurefarmingandfeedrequirements702

TheScottishGovernment’sfarmedsalmontargetof210,000tonnesby2020,(see1.2)representsa703

realisticCAGRof c.2.5%,providednewproductionsitesareavailable,etc.This isalso in linewith704

globalsalmonprojectionswhereannualgrowthratehasrecentlydiminished,resultinginaprojected705

3%CAGRfrom2013to2020(Kontali,2013).IftheoverallFCRin2013/2014wasc.1.3(see1.2),and706

annualsalmonharvestvolumeisexpectedto increasefromc.165,000tonnesto210,000tonnes in707

2020, it seems not unreasonable to assume an improved FCR within the range of 1.1 - 1.2,708

correspondingtoa2020Scottishsalmonfeedrequirementintherangeof231,000-252,000tonnes.709

710

7.2Forwardsupplyofmarineingredients711

OECD-FAO(2013)constructedanannualglobalforecastfrom2013to2022oftotalfishmealandfish712

oil production, production fromwhole fish, consumption, variation in stocks, and price. Using the713

OECD-FAOfishmodelfor2022,FAO(2014)projectedtotalfisheryproduction,aquaculture,fishmeal714

and fishoil production assuming that about 16%of capture fisheryproductionwill be reduced to715

fishmealandfishoil(down7%onthe2010-2012average,thebaseperiod),buttotal‘baseline’2022716

25

productionwillbe7.02milliontonnesand1.08milliontonnes,respectively(i.e.up15%and10%on717

thebaseperiod,withalmost95%oftheadditionalgainforfishmealcomingfromimproveduseof718

fish waste, cuttings and trimmings) (Table 3). OECD-FAO estimate that fishmeal from by-products719

should represent49%of total fishmealproduction in2022and that,withglobaldemand stronger720

than supply, prices of fishmeal and fish oilwill increase by 6% and23%, respectively, in nominal721

terms by 2022 (OECD-FAO, 2013). Although the OECD-FAOmodel is the best available, this is no722

guarantee of its predictive ability, especially if there is a possibility that the base period may be723

somewhatoverstated.For instanceIFFOdatagive lowerestimatesforthe2010–2012baseperiod724

thanFAOwith4.92million tonnesof fishmealas the2010–2012yearaverageversus6.10million725

tonnesfromFAO(duemainlytolowerassumptionsonChineseproductionbyIFFO),whileIFFOdata726

forfishoiliscloseat0.96milliontonnesversus0.98milliontonnesforthesame3-yearaverage(IFFO,727

2014).AlsoIFFOdataaresuggestiveofarecentdownwardtrendinfishmealproductionmost likely728

linked to more precautionary fishing (Fig. 4). Although this is less evident in the data on fish oil729

production,thetrendwillbeforlessfishoilbeingavailableforaquacultureduetocompetitionfrom730

thehumannutritionsector(Figs.5and6).731

Supplyanddemandforecastsforfishmealandfishoilneedtotakeintoaccountinteraliademand732

for pelagic fish for direct human consumption, the effect on reduction fisheries of increased733

regulatory curbs, climatic events (e.g. ElNiño), increased exploitation of fish processingwastes for734

reductionpurposes,etc.Atthesametimedemandforfishmealandfishoilisafunctionofpriceand735

availabilityofalternativeproteinsandalternativeoils,particularlynovelsourcesofomega-3LC-PUFA,736

aswellastherateofgrowth,notonlyoffedaquaculturespecies,butalsoofyoungpigsandday-old737

chicks (Shepherd and Jackson, 2013). This is in turn influenced by innovation of feed formulators,738

plantproteinprocessors,andgeneticists,astheyseektoreducefishmeal inclusionratestosaveon739

scarce, fluctuating, and costly ingredients, and also by the efforts of civic society (e.g. NGOs) to740

discourage use of marine ingredients on alleged sustainability grounds. Since fish oil demand has741

becomeaderiveddemandforEPAandDHA,salmonfeedbuyerscompetestronglywiththehuman742

nutritionmarket,whilesupplyislinkedtothatofitsco-productfishmeal,withbothproductssubject743

to the volatility of the dominant Peruvian catch due to ElNiño.However,Olsen andHasan (2012)744

concluded that the limited supply of pelagic fishmealwill not be amajor obstacle for a continued745

moderategrowthinglobalaquacultureproduction; it isreasonabletomakethesameconclusionin746

regardtoglobalsalmonproduction.747

26

Onthesomewhatconservativeassumptionofa30%marine/70%plantcontentoffeedingredients748

(lower inmarinecontent thantoday’sScottishaverage,but thesameascurrentNorwegian feeds),749

231,000-252,000tonnesofsalmonfeedforScotlandin2020wouldrequireannually69,000-76,000750

tonnes ofmarine ingredients and 162,000 - 176,000 tonnes of plant ingredients.On this basis the751

reduced fishmeal inclusion rate projected for 2020 will more than offset the increased feed752

production.IftheUKannualfishmealrequirementin2020is45,000-50,000tonnes(comparedwith753

c.55,000tonnesdemandand39,000tonnessupplyin2014,–see3.1)anddomesticsupplyislikelyto754

riseover time,most, ifnotall, fishmeal requirementscouldbesourced locally ifdesired.However,755

salmon by-products could not be recycled (3.1) and sourcing criteria for farm certification (e.g. by756

ASC),maybecomemoreexactingovertime(5.2),restrictingrawmaterial.757

758

7.3Forwardplantproteinandoilsupply759

OECD and FAO secretariats analysed the price ratios of aquaculture species relative to oilseed760

products and concluded that tight supplies of fishmeal and fish oil are likely to contribute to an761

increased price ratio between fish and oilseed products over themedium term due to continuing762

demandfromearlyrearingofpigsandsalmonfarmingandfromcontinuingomega-3demand(OECD-763

FAO,2013).TheyrecognisedthepriceratioswillbeexacerbatedinElNiñoyears,furtherconstraining764

supplyandsupportinghigherprices.Alsotheyprojecta26%increaseinworldproductionofoilseeds765

and a switch in distribution of land from coarse grains to oilseeds. Global protein meal output is766

projected to increaseby25%or67million tonnesby2022; thisenvisages consumptiongrowthof767

proteinmeal slowing somewhat due to slower absolute growth in global livestock production and768

slowergrowthintherelativeuseofproteinmealinfeedrations.Theoverallavailabilityandpriceof769

terrestrialingredientswillalsodependonfactorssuchasfreshwateravailability.770

Intheshort-term,demandfromScottishandglobalsalmonproductionfortheprincipalplantfeed771

ingredient, non-GM soy (as SPC) is only c. 1% or 7.5%, respectively, of global supply, suggesting772

securityofsupply isnotan issue.TheEuropeansalmon industry importsnon-GMsoyamainly from773

Brazilasalreadycrushedconcentrate (see3.2.1),payingapremiumwhichmay increaseover time.774

Hence the strategic logic of avoiding over-reliance on imported soya products by greater focus on775

locally grown protein substitutes, including legumes, beans and peas, aswell as focusing on novel776

sourcesofEPAandDHA,especiallyfromalgalfermentationandtransgenicoilseedcrops.Ifmicrobial777

27

protein (e.g. FeedKindTM) is shown to be cost-effective and available on a large scale, this could778

potentiallystarttoreplacefishmealandSPCinsalmonfeedsfromasearlyas2018.779

780

8.Overallconclusions781

8.1 The Scottish salmon farming industry occupies a distinctive international market position782

supplyingadifferentiatedproductrangetooffsetpotentiallyhigherproductioncostscomparedwith783

themuchlargerandmorestandardisedNorwegianindustry.Scottishproductionthereforereliesona784

variety of feed products, including specialist formulations with a higher than standard content of785

marine ingredientsandomega-3LC-PUFA,etc.Despite its recognisedeconomicandsocialbenefits,786

thishasraisedquestionsabouttheindustry’senvironmentalsustainabilityinregardtosalmonfeed.787

788

8.2Finitemarinefeedresourcesarenowbeingreplacedbyplant-based ingredients insalmonfeed,789

henceenablingsalmonfarmingtoachievenetfishproteinproduction.Althoughitiscontinuingtofall,790

therelativelyhighermarinecontentofsomeScottishfeeds(averagingaround40%marineand60%791

plant ingredients) compared with Norwegian farmed salmon reinforces a ‘healthy and natural’792

reputationandmaybeseenasanecessarytrade-offagainstincreasedfeedcosts.793

794

8.3 There is no evidence that terrestrial agricultural animal and plant feed resources are more795

sustainable for farmingsalmonthanusing feed ingredientsbasedonwild-caughtmarineresources,796

providedtheyaresourcedfromsustainablymanagedstocks(orfromthegrowingproportionoffish797

processing by-products, which currently represent 25 – 30 % of marine ingredients); hence an798

increased utilisation of plant ingredients in salmon feed may not be more environmentally799

sustainable.800

801

8.4TheScottishsalmonindustryhassoughttoadoptbestfarmingpracticeinresponsetoitsproducer802

organisationandtosupplychainpressures,includingresponsiblesourcing.Scottishcertificationfocus803

on sustainable raw materials has helped to counter claims of an unsustainable use of marine804

ingredients,hencethegrowingrecognitionthatsustainability issues for farmedScottishsalmonare805

nowmore related to sea lice rather than feed ingredients. Certifiedevidenceonuseof renewable806

feed ingredients is underpinned by third party auditing. Retailers require suppliers to complywith807

external certification schemes as well as their in-house standards, with the result that farming808

28

standardsaredemandingandcontinuetobedrivenup.TherecentASCcertificationoftwofarmsites809

inScotlandsuggeststhatthismaybecomeafuturebenchmarkofresponsiblepractice.Inadditionthe810

Scottishethicalcommitmenttofishwelfare(viaFreedomFood/RSPCAAssuredstatus)demonstrates811

theindustry’swillingnesstostepbeyondtraditionalboundariesofbestpractice.812

813

8.5 Increaseddemandfor fishoil fromaquacultureandthehumannutrition industryhascoincided814

withacutescarcityduetoElNiñoconditionsaffectingtheanchovyfishery inPeruandChile. Inthe815

short-term this issuewill temporarily resolve itself in Peru as the anchovy fishery recovers. In the816

medium-term interim solutionsareneeded tomanage this situation cost-effectively andDHA from817

algalfermentationisnowavailablealbeitatrelativelyhighcostandbeingstudiedasonesolution.In818

thelongerterm,inviewofthefoodsecurityandconsumerhealthimplications, it isappropriatefor819

theScottishindustrytoconsiderreviewingitspolicyonGMfeedingredientsforwhennewtransgenic820

plant sources of EPA and DHA become available. However, it is recognised that, use of GM feed821

ingredients at the present timewould risk lost sales to France,which is the secondmost valuable822

exportmarketforScottishsalmon.823

824

8.6There isevidencesomeconsumers take intoaccount thehealthbenefitswhenchoosingtobuy825

salmonandsomeUKretailpacks indicate thateatingaproductportionwillallowtheconsumer to826

meetinternationalrecommendationsforweeklyconsumptionofomega-3LC-PUFA.Thiscreatesarisk827

forScottishsalmonsincethecontentofEPAandDHAhasfallenbecauseofincreasingreplacementof828

fishoilbyplantoilsinsalmonfeed.Incurrentscarcityconditionsfishoilsupplementationoffeedto829

meet the label claim is costly and difficult, butmay be necessary tomaintain industry and brand830

reputations.At thesametimethehealthattributesofScottishsalmonarenotsolelybasedonEPA831

andDHA,butcouldtakemoreaccountofthecontentofaminoacids,vitaminsandminerals,etc.,as832

well as extremely low levels of environmental contaminants due to replacing marine by plant833

ingredients.834

835

8.7Despiteitspotentialbenefits(e.g.costsavingsandformulationflexibility),anditswidespreaduse836

insalmonfarmingintheAmericas,thereisstrongsupplychainresistancetoincorporatingterrestrial837

by-productsintosalmonfeedsintheUK.EUapprovalhasbeengrantedforuseofPAPinaquaculture838

feeds,althoughincommercialpracticethiswouldmeanpoultrymaterialasporcineby-productsare839

29

problematicforreligiousandculturalreasons.However,UKretailersarecurrentlyunwillingtoaccept840

thehigh riskofanegativecustomer reaction. It is recognised that thispolicy restricts sourcingand841

runscountertosustainabilityoptions,but isunlikelytochangeinthenearfuture.Thepotentialfor842

insect-based ingredients has yet to be evaluated and developed, but couldmeet similar consumer843

objections.844

845

8.8As regards theuseofGM feed ingredients, a similarembargoexists today inEuropean salmon846

farming.ThisisdespitetheiruseinUKchickenfeeds,signsofaweakeninginUKconsumerhostilityto847

theGMissue,andamoreflexibleapproachbytheEUandtheEnglishandWelshgovernments.Given848

theavailabilityofnon-GMsoyaatarelativelysmallpricepremiumtoday,thereisnocurrentincentive849

to alter this policy on grounds of protein availability, although this situation could change in the850

future. The positionwith omega-3 LC-PUFA is different as the likely commercial availability of GM851

oilseed crop sources by around 2020 from outside Europe offers a possible solution to a chronic852

shortage.AvoidingGMcouldmeanthat theScottish industry isaccusedof supplyinga lesshealthy853

product than in those countries using GM feed ingredients. It does not appear to be logistically854

feasible for theUK fish feedand fish farming industries tomaintainbothGM fedandnon-GM fed855

supplylinesatthesametime.856

857

8.9Althoughforwardsupplyofproteinsisnotseenasamajorissue,thereshouldbecontinuingfocus858

on cost-effective local alternatives to non-GM SPC in particular. Provided it becomes available on859

schedule and remains cost-effective, the development ofmicrobial protein is of strategic interest,860

offeringanovelalternativetofishmealandSPCofstrategicinterest.861

862

8.10Asregardsresearchbottlenecks,continuingfocusisrequiredonhowbesttomaintainEPAand863

DHA levels in farmed salmon given the increased price and reduced availability of fish oil of864

appropriatecertificationstatusandlackofcontaminants.Themostfeasiblealternativesourcemaybe865

GMoilby2020,butalgalandmicrobialsourcesshouldbekeptunderreviewandinterimsolutionsare866

requiredtomanagethissituationcost-effectively.Althoughalternativeplantproteinfeedingredients867

(e.g.beansandpeas)arebeingstudied,especiallythosethatcanbegrownintheUK,itisimportant868

to be able to concentrate the protein in order for it to replace SPC. The technical process and869

associatedlogisticsthereforeneedtobedefinedandofferacost-effectivesolution.870

30

Acknowledgements871Thispaperisbasedonarecentstudybytheauthorsconductedon‘Theproductionofhighquality872

healthyfarmedsalmon(Salmosalar)fromachangingrawmaterialbase,withspecialreferencetoa873

sustainable Scottish industry’ (Shepherd et al., 2015).Weacknowledge the support of the Scottish874

AquacultureResearchForum(SARF),whichcommissionedthisstudy(ProjectSP007),andafulllistof875

allindividualsandstakeholderorganisationstowhomwearegratefulisincludedintheoriginalstudy876

report(Shepherdetal.,2015).877

878

879

31

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1033

35

Tables10341035

Table 1. Comparison of farmed salmon production (tonnes), feed supply volume (tonnes), and1036correspondingfeedconversionratio(FCR)forScotlandandNorwayinyears2013and2014(source:1037KontaliAS).1038

1039

1040

Table2.Estimatedglobalproduction(a)andconsumption(b)ofcombinedEPAandDHA(tonnes)in2014(after1041Meinich,2014).1042

Table2a1043

Estimatedglobalproductionofcrudefishoil 800,000EstimatedglobalproductionofEPA+DHA 140,000Estimatedglobalyear-endcarryoverofEPA+DHA 30,000EstimatedglobalavailabilityofEPA+DHA 170,0001044

Table2b1045

EstimatedglobalconsumptionofEPA+DHAinsalmonfeed 50,000EstimatedglobalconsumptionofEPA+DHAbynon-salmonaquaculture 50,000EstimatedglobalconsumptionofEPA+DHAfordirecthumanconsumption 61,000EstimatedtechnicalusageofEPA+DHA(e.g.hardening,tanning,energy) 9,0001046

1047

2013 2014

Farmedsalmonproductionaswholefishequivalent

Salmonfeedsupply

FeedConversionRatio

Scotland

163,234

214,000

1.31

Norway

1,143,500

1,487,600

1.30

Scotland

179,022

221,000

1.23

Norway

1,198,900

1,598,800

1.33

36

Table3.FAOfishmodel:overalltrendsto2022forworld(milliontonnesinliveweightequivalent)(FAO,2014).1048

Baseperiod 2022scenarios

2010-2012Baseline Intermediate

OptimisticMixed

Totalfisheryproduction(World) 153.940 181.070 188.093 194.800 194.792

Aquaculture 62.924 85.124 92.402 99.330 99.330

Capture 91.016 95.946 95.692 95.474 95.462

Fishmealproduction(productweight) 6.103 7.021 7.358 7.679 7.734

Fishoilproduction(productweight) 0.980 1.079 1.0871.094

1.088

Fishtradeforhumanconsumption 36.994 45.08245.566

46.237 46.566Fishsupplyforhumanconsumption

131.741 160.514167.397

173.969 174.032

Percapitaapparentfishconsumption(kg)

18.9 20.7 21.6 22.4 22.4

1049

1050

37

Figures1051

1052

1053

Fig.1.NutrientsourcesinNorwegiansalmonfarmingfrom1990to2013.Eachingredienttypeisshownasits1054percentageofthetotaldiet(Ytrestøyletal.,2015).1055

1056

1057

65.4

33.524.8 19.5 18.3

24.0

31.1

16.611.2 10.9

22.2

35.5

36.7 36.7

12.518.3 19.2

9.6 11.2 8.4 11.1 11.2

1.0 2.0 2.2 3.1 3.7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2012 2013

Ingredientsources(%)1990-2013

microingredients

starch

plantoil

plantprotein

marineoil

marineprotein

38

1058

Fig. 2. Prices of fishmeal, fish oil, rapeseed oil, soymeal and wheat delivered Europe, from 2006 to 20131059(source:MarineHarvest,2014,afterChr.Holtermann).1060

1061

Fig.3.Worldfishmealandfishoilconsumptionbyaquaculture(rightaxis)(---)comparedwithgrowthin‘fed’1062aquaculture(lefthandaxis)(___)2000–2012(milliontonnes)(sources:IFFOdataandFAO,2014).1063

1064

1065

1066

39

1067

1068

Fig.4.Annualworldfishmealproductionbymajornationalproducerfrom2006to2015(tonnesx1000).1069

1070

1071

Fig.5.Annualworldfishoilproductionbymajornationalproducerfrom2006to2015(tonnesx1000).1072

5,2865,698

5,1614,903

4,648

5,854

4,743 4,9304,509

4,787

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Peru Chile Thailand U.S.A Japan Scandinavia* Others

*IncludesDenmarkandNorwaysource:IFFOandISTAMielkeGmbH,OILWORLD

9781,064 1,082 1,046

905

1,098

935 922 929846

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Peru Chile Scandinavia* U.S.A Japan Other

*IncludesDenmark,Norway&Icelandsource:IFFOandISTAMielkeGmbH,OILWORLD

40

1073

Fig.6.Worldfishoilconsumption(tonnesx1000)byaquaculture,directhumanconsumption(DHC),andother1074usesfrom2005to2015(source:IFFO).1075

1076

Fig.7.Use(%oftotalaquacultureuse)offishoilbydifferentcategoriesoffarmedfishandcrustaceansin20131077(source:IFFO).1078

60%

4%

23%

6%0%

2%5%

Salmonids Other Marinefish Crustaceans Cyprinids Eels Tilapias