accessing asean markets - ocbc securities · 2013. 5. 17. · ioi corporation bhd dbs group...

Accessing ASEAN Markets

Geoff Howie Markets Strategist, Singapore Exchange 11May 2013

SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway

Private Investment share of GDP to moderately rise (+1.1%), while private savings

rate to moderately fall (-1.8%) over next 5 years according to annual IMF Country

Report*.

Real Estate or Stocks?

– Over a ten year period ending March 2013, the average annualised return of the Urban

Redevelopment Authority Property Price Index by residential type amounts to +6.4%.

– Over the same timeframe the average annualised return of the STI was +10.4% not

including dividend distributions.

Investment Choices

1

IMF Article IV Report – Singapore July 2012


In the April 2013 IMF World Economic Outlook, GDP growth of ASEAN-5 was revised

upwards versus downward revisions for United States, Europe, China and India.

Alongside listing a number of stocks and trusts that generate a large percentage of

their revenue in ASEAN neighboring states, SGX offer a number of ETFs that provide

exposure to the performance of ASEAN equity indices.

While the majority of the ETFs are US Dollar denominated, the majority of the stock

offerings are denominated in the Singapore Dollar (SGD). Furthermore, the strong

external position of reserves at 100% of GDP means Singapore is one of three

countries in the world outside Europe & UK to maintain the highest sovereign rate by

Fitch, S&P and Moody’s.

Coinciding with increased physical trade flows between ASEAN and China, the

largest IPO in Asia in the 2013 YTD has been a REIT which holds assets in Greater

China and is managed by a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mapletree Investments.

ASEAN Market Highlights

2

SGX The Asian Gateway

ASEAN Growth

Global Context

3

SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway 4

IMF 2013 Global Growth Forecast

+3.3%

International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook, April 2013, ‘Hopes, Realities, Risks’

World Output downwardly revised by 0.2%, 2012 Level was 3.2%, Forecast for 2014 is 4.0%.


IMF 2013: 1.2% Advanced World Growth Forecast

+1.9% -0.3%

Unemployment Rate 7.5%

Quantitative Easing

Unemployment Rate 12.1%

Outright Monetary Transactions

US and Europe both downwardly revised by 0.2% in April. US growth was 2.2% in 2012, Europe was -0.6%, forward estimate is 3.0% and

1.1% for US and Europe respectively.


IMF 2013: 7.1% forecast for Developing Asia Growth

+8.0% +5.7%

The 2015 ASEAN Economic

Community (AEC) with the freer

flow of capital objective is the

largest integration effort attempted

in the developing world.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Average Inflation rate, average consumer prices (Annual percent change)

Nominal GDP (Trillions of U.S. dollars)

Nom

ina

l GD

P ($

US

Trillio

n)

Ave

rag

e In

flatio

n R

ate

Estimates

Combined ASEAN GDP & Average Inflation (1998 – 2016E)

+5.9%

ASEAN-5 2013 Growth update was revised Upward by 0.3%, China was revised

down 0.1% and India was revised downwards by 0.2%. In 2012, China growth was

7.8%, India was 4.0% and ASEAN-5 was 5.1%.


Strong domestic demand and consumer confidence

Investment and Infrastructure requirements

Growing wages and rising middle class

Further subsidization reforms

Low Inflation and accommodative Monetary Policy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

United States Asia and Pacific Europe Developing Asia

No

min

al G

DP

($U

S T

rillion)

Common ASEAN growth drivers

7

+5.9%


ETF Application

8


CIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 ETF is a non-SIP ETF that adopts a full replication strategy,

that is the fund holds the physical underlying stocks.

Gained 18.2% in 2012, with a five year annualised return of 11.5% as of 28 March

2013.

The ETF was established as an ASEAN government initiative to position ASEAN

markets as a regional asset class in Sep 2006.

This Index represents 40 of the largest stocks listed across Singapore, Malaysia,

Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines.

Of the 40 stocks that are held by the ETF, there are 19 different sectors as

represented as categorised by the ICB.

An original ASEAN asset

9


Banks-heavy FTSE ASEAN 40 Index

10

Banks make up the largest Supersector of the FTSE ASEAN 40

Index, accounting for 12 constituents and 41.4% of the Index

weighting as of April 30, 2013.

Singapore's three locally-listed banks - DBS Group Holdings,

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. and United Overseas Bank -

accounted for half of Singapore's 11 stock - 36% weighting in

the FTSE ASEAN 40 Index as of April 30.

FTSE Index as of 30 April 2013

Num

of

Cons

YTD Total

Retn %

1Y Total

Retn % 1Y Vol

5Y 5Y p.a.

Vol

Div

Yield Total Retn

%

FTSE Asian Banks Index 30 5.9 17.3 14.4 11.3 29.9 3.5

FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS - Banks 9 4.4 17.1 6.9 90 17.9 3.6

FTSE ST Banks Index 3 11.4 21.6 12.1 30.6 27.9 3.1

FTSE SET Banks Index 10 12.9 30.2 18.9 137.3 29 2.4


Name Local

Exchange

Symbol

Exchange

Location

ICB Sector Name Mkt Cap (S$m)

SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD Z74 Singapore Mobile Telecommunications 61,861

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD D05 Singapore Banks 42,465

OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP O39 Singapore Banks 37,148

UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD U11 Singapore Banks 34,304

WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD F34 Singapore Food Producers 21,172

KEPPEL CORP LTD BN4 Singapore Oil Equip, Services & Distribution 19,149

GENTING SINGAPORE PLC G13 Singapore Travel & Leisure 18,092

JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE LTD C07 Singapore General Retailers 17,163

CAPITALAND LTD C31 Singapore Real Estate Investment & Services 15,582

SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING S63 Singapore Aerospace & Defense 13,682

SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD C6L Singapore Travel & Leisure 12,920

CITY DEVELOPMENTS LTD C09 Singapore Real Estate Investment & Services 10,284

12 of 40 stocks listed on Singapore Exchange


11 of 40 stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia

12

Name Local

Exchange

Symbol

Exchange

Location


MALAYAN BANKING BHD 1155 Kuala Lumpur Banks 32,870

AXIATA GROUP BERHAD 6888 Kuala Lumpur Mobile Telecommunications 23,112

PUBLIC BANK BERHAD 1295 Kuala Lumpur Banks 23,102

CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD 1023 Kuala Lumpur Banks 23,070

SIME DARBY BERHAD 4197 Kuala Lumpur General Industrials 22,816

PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD 5183 Kuala Lumpur Chemicals 20,851

MAXIS BHD 6012 Kuala Lumpur Mobile Telecommunications 20,393

TENAGA NASIONAL BHD 5347 Kuala Lumpur Electricity 17,664

PETRONAS GAS BHD 6033 Kuala Lumpur Oil & Gas Producers 15,634

IOI CORPORATION BHD 1961 Kuala Lumpur Food Producers 12,814

GENTING MALAYSIA BHD 4715 Kuala Lumpur Travel & Leisure 8,412


Nine of 40 stocks listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange

13

Name Local

Exchange

Symbol

Exchange

Location


ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK PT ASII Indonesia Automobiles & Parts 36,932

BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK PT BBCA Indonesia Banks 33,582

TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA PER TLKM Indonesia Fixed Line Telco 29,886

BANK MANDIRI PERSERO TBK PT BMRI Indonesia Banks 29,416

BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA PERSER BBRI Indonesia Banks 28,912

UNILEVER INDONESIA TBK PT UNVR Indonesia Personal Goods 24,604

PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA PERSER PGAS Indonesia Gas, Water & Multiutilities 18,890

GUDANG GARAM TBK PT GGRM Indonesia Tobacco 12,482

UNITED TRACTORS TBK PT UNTR Indonesia Industrial Engineering 8,484


Six of 40 stocks listed on Stock Exchange of Thailand

14

Name Local

Exchange

Symbol

Exchange

Location


ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PCL ADVANC Bangkok Mobile Telecommunications 33,149

SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PUB CO SCB Bangkok Banks 26,290

PTT EXPLOR & PROD PUBLIC CO PTTEP Bangkok Oil & Gas Producers 25,697

SIAM CEMENT PUBLIC CO LTD SCC Bangkok Construction & Materials 24,354

KASIKORNBANK PCL KBANK Bangkok Banks 21,088

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC CO LTD BBL Bangkok Banks 17,696


Two of 40 stocks listed on Stock Exchange of Thailand

15

Name Local

Exchange

Symbol

Exchange

Location


SM INVESTMENTS CORP SM Philippines General Retailers 22,320

PHILIPPINE LONG DISTANCE TEL TEL Philippines Mobile Telecommunications 20,357


Portfolio Managers that wish to combine the benefits of a

passive portfolio with their expertise or experience in specific

sectors or market genre can adopt the Core Satellite strategy.

Core Satellite Portfolio Management is comprised of:

– a core portfolio, generally in the form of a passive investment that

provides a comparable performance to an investment benchmark

such as a stock market index or commodity price.

– a satellite portfolio, generally in the form of active investments in

stocks and securities that provide portfolio alpha.

– in this context investment alpha refers to the return of these active

investments, adjusted for their associated trading risks.

Core Satellite Strategy

16


Two Year Raw Beta of FTSE ASEAN 40 Constituents

17

1.94 1.53 1.52 1.52

1.42 1.41 1.40

1.36 1.33 1.32 1.31

1.25 1.23

1.18 1.18

1.16 1.15

1.12 1.11

1.06 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03

1.00 0.96 0.95

0.93 0.86 0.86 0.85

0.81 0.65

0.57 0.57 0.56

0.49 0.43

0.40

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00

NOBLE GROUP LTDGENTING BHD

BANK MANDIRI PERSERO TBK PTCAPITALAND LTD

MISC BHDKEPPEL CORP LTD

BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA PERSERCITY DEVELOPMENTS LTD

CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHDGENTING SINGAPORE PLC

ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK PT

SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK P-NVDRPTT PCL-NVDR

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC CO-NVDRPHILIPPINE LONG DISTANCE TEL

SIAM CEMENT PCL-NVDRKASIKORNBANK PCL-NVDR

PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA PERSER

IOI CORPORATION BHDDIGI.COM BHD

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTDUNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD

AXIATA GROUP BERHADWILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD

PTT EXPLOR & PROD PCL-NVDR

OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPSINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD

BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK PTPETRONAS GAS BHD

TENAGA NASIONAL BHDMALAYAN BANKING BHD

SIME DARBY BERHADSINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING

SINGAPORE TELECOM LTDUNILEVER INDONESIA TBK PT

PUBLIC BANK BHD-FOREIGN MKTTELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA PER

ADVANCED INFO SERVICE-NVDRMAXIS BHD

Source: Bloomberg Jan 2013


The DB x-trackers MSCI Thailand TRN Index ETF (LG7) tracks the MSCI Thailand

TRN Index, appreciated by 34.88% in 2012. The underlying index consist of 21

constituents, with a large weighting to the financials and energy sector of Thailand.

The DB x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF (HD9) tracks the FTSE Vietnam TRN Index,

appreciated 20.11% in 2012. The underlying index consists of 23 constituents,

heavily weighted towards the financial sector of Vietnam.

The DB x-trackers MSCI Indonesia TRN Index ETF (KJ) tracks the MSCI TRN

Indonesia Index, appreciated 2.78% in 2012. The underlying index consists of 25

constituents, with a large weighting to the financial and consumer discretionary sector

of Indonesia.

Most liquid ASEAN ETFs after STI ETF in 2012

18


Together, five countries of Developing Asia, India, China,

Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia accounted for half of the

world’s gold bar and gold coin investments in 2012.

SPDR® GOLD SHARES trade the same way ordinary stocks

do. SPDR Gold Shares represents an ownership interest in a

Trust, the sole assets of which are gold bullion, and, from time

to time, a portion of cash.

SPDR Gold Shares are intended to lower a large number of

the barriers preventing investors from using gold as an asset

allocation and trading tool.

– Barriers include the logistics of buying, storing and insuring

gold. In addition, lower minimum notional value relative to

other gold markets make SPDR® GOLD SHARES

(exchange code O87), accessible to most investors.

The CIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 ETF is cash-based with a

management fee of 0.65%.

Core Satellite: SPDR® GOLD SHARES

19


ETF Portfolio

2013 2012

Total

Return

2011

Total

Return

2010

Total

Return YTD Total

Return

SPDR STI ETF (1000)

+6.86% +21.00% -14.02% +12.46%

CIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 (200 & SGD adj) +9.19% +11.03% -3.57% +18.35%

SPDR Gold Shares ETF (20 & SGD adj) -10.38% -8.60% +21.92% +16.70%

Combined Portfolio Return +0.56% +7.91% +2.32% +15.63%

Education – Portfolio Combinations up to 2 May 2013

20

STI, ASEAN & Gold: 2010 - 2012, annualised return +10.2%

Note this is purely and education example on diversification application with

ETFs. Past performances do not guarantee future results.

SPDR STI ETF & SPDE Gold Shares are SIPs


Relevant Stocks and Trusts

21


Stock/Trust SGX

Code Market

Cap S$M

ASEAN (Excl

SG) GEO Seg

Rev %

12 M Price

Chng % to

11 April 13

PARKSON RETAIL O9E 1,118 100 13.80%

TOTAL ACCESS-FRN B2W 9,495 100 20.80%

FIRST RESOURCES EB5 2,954 100 -6.30%

BUMITAMA AGRI LT P8Z 1,784 100 34.70%

GALLANT VENTURE 5IG 1,351 100 -8.20%

LIPPO MALLS D5IU 1,152 100 26.80%

YOMA STRATEGIC Z59 949 100 58.90%

KENCANA AGRI F9M 356 100 -11.40%

RH PETROGAS LTD T13 310 100 4.10%

INTERRA RESOURCE 5GI 234 100 36.50%

GLOBAL PALM RESO K6J 76 100 -20.40%

LION ASIAPAC LTD L08 75 99 -3.10%

CONSCIENCE FOOD L1D 74 98 -11.40%

HEALTH MGMT INTL 588 72 97 18.40%

THAI BEVERAGE Y92 15,443 96 104.90%

JB FOODS LTD Q0W 221 93 53.30%

KHONG GUAN FLOUR K03 55 92 18.10%

SINARMAS LAND LT A26 1,338 92 24.30%

FIRST REIT AW9U 863 91 48.00%

JARDINE CYCLE & C07 18,287 91 9.60%

RIVERSTONE HLDGS AP4 173 90 10.20%

STRAITS TRADING S20 1,499 86 15.20%

SEROJA INVESTMEN IW5 66 82 -23.20%

INDOFOOD AGRI RE 5JS 1,692 82 -23.20%

Stocks & Trusts that generate ASEAN revenue

According to Bloomberg, there are

24 Mainboard stocks listed on SGX

that maintain a market capitalisation

above S$50 million and have

specifically reported that more than

80% of their revenue was generated

in one or more neighboring ASEAN

states.

This is based on their most recent

financial year report and the table

below details the revenue that was

reported to be generated in ASEAN

economies other than Singapore.

22


ASEAN and China Interconnectiveness

23

China & ASEAN are two of just three regions

to see GDP double over 8 years.

Both have different structural challenges.

Rebalancing focus is raising Consumption in

China, while focus is on raising investment in

ASEAN.

ACTFA is planned to grow to US$500 billion by

2015 making ASEAN China’s largest trading

partner by value.

US$ Billion 2010 2011 2012

China-ASEAN

Trade Value 292.8 363.8 400.9

YOY change (%) 37.5 24.2 10.2

Source: China Daily


There are a number of businesses in

Singapore with revenue or assets ties to

China.

The FTSE ST China Top Index (China

Top) represents the top 20 stocks within

the FTSE ST All Share Index by full

market capitalisation that either:

– Derive at least half of their sales revenue

from Mainland China; or

– Have at least half of their operational

assets located in Mainland China.

2012 total returns:

FTSE ST China Top Index +17.1%

FTSE China A50 Index +14.6%

FTSE China Top Index

24

Stock SGX

Code

Mkt

Cap

($m)

YTD Total

Return

(%)

2012

Total

Return

(%)

Dvd Ind

Yld

HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS

LTD*

H78 21555 0.08 58% 2.30

WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD F34 21300 -0.01 -32% 1.52

HUTCHISON PORT HOLDINGS

TR-U*

NS8U 8903 0.09 38% 8.45

KEPPEL LAND LTD K17 6322 4.53 93% 2.93

YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING BS6 3621 -1.56 11% 5.26

YANLORD LAND GROUP LTD Z25 2796 -4.34 59% 1.32

BIOSENSORS INTERNATIONAL

GRO

B20 2073 0.41 -11% NA

COSCO CORP SINGAPORE LTD F83 1825 -6.32 5% 2.30

CAPITARETAIL CHINA TRUST AU8U 1289 5.47 56% 1.75

HYFLUX LTD 600 1182 12.96 8% 3.62


Growing infrastructure requirements and cross border trade growth with ASEAN has

coincided with GDP growth in recent years.

On the Infrastructure side, according to the Asia Development Bank (ADB), there are

15 projects under the Master Plan of ASEAN Connectivity, of which six involve

physical infrastructure.

ADB have estimated that ASEAN needs US$600 bn between 2010 and 2020 to build

power, transport, water and sanitation and telecommunications infrastructure.

Conventional methods to raise funds include government funding, foreign direct

investment, public and private partnerships and capital markets.

REITs or Business Trusts can pay distributions to investors out of operating cash

flows and can thus be an appropriate structure for an organisation with high initial

capital expenditures with stable operating cash flows. The Business Trust structure is

more suited for businesses with stable growth and cash flow, such as infrastructure

and utilities businesses, vehicle leases and charters.

Possible capital market implications into 2020

25


In 2012, the number of Business Trusts listed on SGX grew

30% with the listing of Ascendas Hospitality Business Trust,

Far East Hospitality Business Trust and Religare Health Trust.

The combined full market capitalisation of the 13 Business

Trusts listed on SGX currently amounts to S$18.6 billion.

According to the MAS’s OPERA database, two Business

Trusts, Global Telecommunications Infrastructure Trust and

Croesus Retail Trust have lodged listing prospectuses.

A Business Trust is an alternative structure of a commercial

operation which might otherwise be legally incorporated as

company. Typically, a Business Trust holds and manages

assets for the Trust beneficiaries. These assets can be related

to property, infrastructure, utilities and shipping.

Recent Business Trust Highlights

26


Mr Arjun Goswami (Head of Regional

Cooperation of the Southeast Asia

Department of ADB) on regional

infrastructure noted last year that "in the

medium- to longer-term, improved

infrastructure would contribute to lowered

costs of doing business, increased market

accessibility and enhanced competitiveness."

Similarly through cross border trading, the

ASEAN trading link enhances accessibility of

ASEAN assets, reduces entry costs for

emerging brokers and promotes the ASEAN

asset class.

Objectives of the ASEAN Trading Link

27

Current Members of the Trading Link:

Bursa Malaysia

Stock Exchange of Thailand

Singapore Exchange


How diverse are Singapore Stocks and Sectors?

P

E

R

F

O

R

M

A

N

C

E

F

T

S

E

S

T

S

E

C

T

O

R

I

N

D

I

C

E

S

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Utilities RE D & H RE D & H Utilities Utilities Telco Oil & Gas Healthcare Telco RE D & H

138.29% 41.90% 33.75% 65.22% 118.42% -36.78% 160.58% 64.60% 4.99% 56.04%

Technology REITs Healthcare RE D & H Oil & Gas Cons Services Technology Industrials Healthcare Financial

84.76% 30.84% 30.53% 54.54% 78.03% -43.39% 115.23% 25.58% 3.70% 36.84%

Cons Goods Cons Services Oil & Gas REITsBasic

MaterialsSTI Healthcare Cons Services REITs REITS

62.07% 23.37% 28.52% 41.45% 57.12% -49.17% 114.79% 17.63% -16.04% 36.67%

Telco Healthcare Telco Financial Industrials Financial Cons Goods Oil & Gas STI Industrials

55% 22.46% 20.53% 38.04% 39.55% -51.43% 103.20% 11.14% -17.04% 27.34%

Oil & Gas Telco Industrials Cons Goods Cons Goods RE D & H RE D & H REITs Oil & Gas Oil & Gas

54.76% 22.35% 17.95% 36.25% 22.12% -56.78% 89.94% 10.62% -17.40% 23.79%

Industrials STI Financial Cons Services Telco REITs Utilities STI Industrials STI

53.01% 15.58% 14.99% 31.36% 21.61% -59.03% 81.38% 10.09% -18.57% 19.68%

Basic

MaterialsFinancial STI STI STI Technology Industrials Cons Goods Cons Services Utilities

46.41% 14.68% 14.04% 27.97% 18.74% -60.02% 76.35% 9.80% -18.83% 14.99%

Healthcare Cons Goods REITs Telco Cons Services Industrials Financial Technology Cons Goods Telco

41.54% 12.32% 13.11% 25.09% 14.30% -60.08% 75.09% 9.56% -23.05% 8.55%

REITs Industrials Cons ServicesBasic

MaterialsRE D & H Healthcare REITs RE D & H Financial Technology

34.65% 10.35% 10.10% 24.99% 13.97% -60.15% 69.35% 6.36% -23.41% 4.44%

STIBasic

MaterialsCons Goods Industrials Financial Cons Goods STI Utilities RE D & H Cons Services

32.81% 2.48% 9.29% 19.20% 9.61% -63.28% 64.49% 4.62% -33.24% 4.43%

RE D & H Oil & Gas Utilities Healthcare Healthcare UtilitiesBasic

MaterialsFinancial

Basic

Materials

Basic

Materials27.51% 0.32% 2.22% 16.79% 9.43% -72.72% 58.85% 2.38% -40.47% 2.18%

Financial Technology Technology Technology Technology Oil & Gas Cons Services Telco Technology Healthcare

27.28% -29.75% -0.47% 10.01% 1.63% -73.17% 58.35% 0.01% -41.78% -4.13%

Cons Services UtilitiesBasic

MaterialsOil & Gas REITs

Basic

MaterialsTelco

Basic

MaterialsUtilities Cons Goods

18.75% -59.82% -11.69% 2.75% -2.59% -74.13% 21.87% -3.87% -45.12% -17.55%


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accessing asean markets - ocbc securities · 2013. 5. 17. · ioi corporation bhd dbs group...

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