Accessing ASEAN Markets
Geoff Howie Markets Strategist, Singapore Exchange 11May 2013
SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway
Private Investment share of GDP to moderately rise (+1.1%), while private savings
rate to moderately fall (-1.8%) over next 5 years according to annual IMF Country
Report*.
Real Estate or Stocks?
– Over a ten year period ending March 2013, the average annualised return of the Urban
Redevelopment Authority Property Price Index by residential type amounts to +6.4%.
– Over the same timeframe the average annualised return of the STI was +10.4% not
including dividend distributions.
Investment Choices
1
IMF Article IV Report – Singapore July 2012
SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway
In the April 2013 IMF World Economic Outlook, GDP growth of ASEAN-5 was revised
upwards versus downward revisions for United States, Europe, China and India.
Alongside listing a number of stocks and trusts that generate a large percentage of
their revenue in ASEAN neighboring states, SGX offer a number of ETFs that provide
exposure to the performance of ASEAN equity indices.
While the majority of the ETFs are US Dollar denominated, the majority of the stock
offerings are denominated in the Singapore Dollar (SGD). Furthermore, the strong
external position of reserves at 100% of GDP means Singapore is one of three
countries in the world outside Europe & UK to maintain the highest sovereign rate by
Fitch, S&P and Moody’s.
Coinciding with increased physical trade flows between ASEAN and China, the
largest IPO in Asia in the 2013 YTD has been a REIT which holds assets in Greater
China and is managed by a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mapletree Investments.
ASEAN Market Highlights
2
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ASEAN Growth
Global Context
3
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IMF 2013 Global Growth Forecast
+3.3%
International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook, April 2013, ‘Hopes, Realities, Risks’
World Output downwardly revised by 0.2%, 2012 Level was 3.2%, Forecast for 2014 is 4.0%.
SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway 5
IMF 2013: 1.2% Advanced World Growth Forecast
+1.9% -0.3%
Unemployment Rate 7.5%
Quantitative Easing
Unemployment Rate 12.1%
Outright Monetary Transactions
US and Europe both downwardly revised by 0.2% in April. US growth was 2.2% in 2012, Europe was -0.6%, forward estimate is 3.0% and
1.1% for US and Europe respectively.
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IMF 2013: 7.1% forecast for Developing Asia Growth
+8.0% +5.7%
The 2015 ASEAN Economic
Community (AEC) with the freer
flow of capital objective is the
largest integration effort attempted
in the developing world.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Average Inflation rate, average consumer prices (Annual percent change)
Nominal GDP (Trillions of U.S. dollars)
Nom
ina
l GD
P ($
US
Trillio
n)
Ave
rag
e In
flatio
n R
ate
Estimates
Combined ASEAN GDP & Average Inflation (1998 – 2016E)
+5.9%
ASEAN-5 2013 Growth update was revised Upward by 0.3%, China was revised
down 0.1% and India was revised downwards by 0.2%. In 2012, China growth was
7.8%, India was 4.0% and ASEAN-5 was 5.1%.
SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway
Strong domestic demand and consumer confidence
Investment and Infrastructure requirements
Growing wages and rising middle class
Further subsidization reforms
Low Inflation and accommodative Monetary Policy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
United States Asia and Pacific Europe Developing Asia
No
min
al G
DP
($U
S T
rillion)
Common ASEAN growth drivers
7
+5.9%
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ETF Application
8
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CIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 ETF is a non-SIP ETF that adopts a full replication strategy,
that is the fund holds the physical underlying stocks.
Gained 18.2% in 2012, with a five year annualised return of 11.5% as of 28 March
2013.
The ETF was established as an ASEAN government initiative to position ASEAN
markets as a regional asset class in Sep 2006.
This Index represents 40 of the largest stocks listed across Singapore, Malaysia,
Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines.
Of the 40 stocks that are held by the ETF, there are 19 different sectors as
represented as categorised by the ICB.
An original ASEAN asset
9
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Banks-heavy FTSE ASEAN 40 Index
10
Banks make up the largest Supersector of the FTSE ASEAN 40
Index, accounting for 12 constituents and 41.4% of the Index
weighting as of April 30, 2013.
Singapore's three locally-listed banks - DBS Group Holdings,
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. and United Overseas Bank -
accounted for half of Singapore's 11 stock - 36% weighting in
the FTSE ASEAN 40 Index as of April 30.
FTSE Index as of 30 April 2013
Num
of
Cons
YTD Total
Retn %
1Y Total
Retn % 1Y Vol
5Y 5Y p.a.
Vol
Div
Yield Total Retn
%
FTSE Asian Banks Index 30 5.9 17.3 14.4 11.3 29.9 3.5
FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS - Banks 9 4.4 17.1 6.9 90 17.9 3.6
FTSE ST Banks Index 3 11.4 21.6 12.1 30.6 27.9 3.1
FTSE SET Banks Index 10 12.9 30.2 18.9 137.3 29 2.4
SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway 11
Name Local
Exchange
Symbol
Exchange
Location
ICB Sector Name Mkt Cap (S$m)
SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD Z74 Singapore Mobile Telecommunications 61,861
DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD D05 Singapore Banks 42,465
OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP O39 Singapore Banks 37,148
UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD U11 Singapore Banks 34,304
WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD F34 Singapore Food Producers 21,172
KEPPEL CORP LTD BN4 Singapore Oil Equip, Services & Distribution 19,149
GENTING SINGAPORE PLC G13 Singapore Travel & Leisure 18,092
JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE LTD C07 Singapore General Retailers 17,163
CAPITALAND LTD C31 Singapore Real Estate Investment & Services 15,582
SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING S63 Singapore Aerospace & Defense 13,682
SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD C6L Singapore Travel & Leisure 12,920
CITY DEVELOPMENTS LTD C09 Singapore Real Estate Investment & Services 10,284
12 of 40 stocks listed on Singapore Exchange
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11 of 40 stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia
12
Name Local
Exchange
Symbol
Exchange
Location
ICB Sector Name Mkt Cap (S$m)
MALAYAN BANKING BHD 1155 Kuala Lumpur Banks 32,870
AXIATA GROUP BERHAD 6888 Kuala Lumpur Mobile Telecommunications 23,112
PUBLIC BANK BERHAD 1295 Kuala Lumpur Banks 23,102
CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD 1023 Kuala Lumpur Banks 23,070
SIME DARBY BERHAD 4197 Kuala Lumpur General Industrials 22,816
PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD 5183 Kuala Lumpur Chemicals 20,851
MAXIS BHD 6012 Kuala Lumpur Mobile Telecommunications 20,393
TENAGA NASIONAL BHD 5347 Kuala Lumpur Electricity 17,664
PETRONAS GAS BHD 6033 Kuala Lumpur Oil & Gas Producers 15,634
IOI CORPORATION BHD 1961 Kuala Lumpur Food Producers 12,814
GENTING MALAYSIA BHD 4715 Kuala Lumpur Travel & Leisure 8,412
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Nine of 40 stocks listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange
13
Name Local
Exchange
Symbol
Exchange
Location
ICB Sector Name Mkt Cap (S$m)
ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK PT ASII Indonesia Automobiles & Parts 36,932
BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK PT BBCA Indonesia Banks 33,582
TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA PER TLKM Indonesia Fixed Line Telco 29,886
BANK MANDIRI PERSERO TBK PT BMRI Indonesia Banks 29,416
BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA PERSER BBRI Indonesia Banks 28,912
UNILEVER INDONESIA TBK PT UNVR Indonesia Personal Goods 24,604
PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA PERSER PGAS Indonesia Gas, Water & Multiutilities 18,890
GUDANG GARAM TBK PT GGRM Indonesia Tobacco 12,482
UNITED TRACTORS TBK PT UNTR Indonesia Industrial Engineering 8,484
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Six of 40 stocks listed on Stock Exchange of Thailand
14
Name Local
Exchange
Symbol
Exchange
Location
ICB Sector Name Mkt Cap (S$m)
ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PCL ADVANC Bangkok Mobile Telecommunications 33,149
SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PUB CO SCB Bangkok Banks 26,290
PTT EXPLOR & PROD PUBLIC CO PTTEP Bangkok Oil & Gas Producers 25,697
SIAM CEMENT PUBLIC CO LTD SCC Bangkok Construction & Materials 24,354
KASIKORNBANK PCL KBANK Bangkok Banks 21,088
BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC CO LTD BBL Bangkok Banks 17,696
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Two of 40 stocks listed on Stock Exchange of Thailand
15
Name Local
Exchange
Symbol
Exchange
Location
ICB Sector Name Mkt Cap (S$m)
SM INVESTMENTS CORP SM Philippines General Retailers 22,320
PHILIPPINE LONG DISTANCE TEL TEL Philippines Mobile Telecommunications 20,357
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Portfolio Managers that wish to combine the benefits of a
passive portfolio with their expertise or experience in specific
sectors or market genre can adopt the Core Satellite strategy.
Core Satellite Portfolio Management is comprised of:
– a core portfolio, generally in the form of a passive investment that
provides a comparable performance to an investment benchmark
such as a stock market index or commodity price.
– a satellite portfolio, generally in the form of active investments in
stocks and securities that provide portfolio alpha.
– in this context investment alpha refers to the return of these active
investments, adjusted for their associated trading risks.
Core Satellite Strategy
16
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Two Year Raw Beta of FTSE ASEAN 40 Constituents
17
1.94 1.53 1.52 1.52
1.42 1.41 1.40
1.36 1.33 1.32 1.31
1.25 1.23
1.18 1.18
1.16 1.15
1.12 1.11
1.06 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03
1.00 0.96 0.95
0.93 0.86 0.86 0.85
0.81 0.65
0.57 0.57 0.56
0.49 0.43
0.40
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00
NOBLE GROUP LTDGENTING BHD
BANK MANDIRI PERSERO TBK PTCAPITALAND LTD
MISC BHDKEPPEL CORP LTD
BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA PERSERCITY DEVELOPMENTS LTD
CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHDGENTING SINGAPORE PLC
ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK PT
SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK P-NVDRPTT PCL-NVDR
BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC CO-NVDRPHILIPPINE LONG DISTANCE TEL
SIAM CEMENT PCL-NVDRKASIKORNBANK PCL-NVDR
PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA PERSER
IOI CORPORATION BHDDIGI.COM BHD
DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTDUNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD
AXIATA GROUP BERHADWILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD
PTT EXPLOR & PROD PCL-NVDR
OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPSINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD
BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK PTPETRONAS GAS BHD
TENAGA NASIONAL BHDMALAYAN BANKING BHD
SIME DARBY BERHADSINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING
SINGAPORE TELECOM LTDUNILEVER INDONESIA TBK PT
PUBLIC BANK BHD-FOREIGN MKTTELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA PER
ADVANCED INFO SERVICE-NVDRMAXIS BHD
Source: Bloomberg Jan 2013
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The DB x-trackers MSCI Thailand TRN Index ETF (LG7) tracks the MSCI Thailand
TRN Index, appreciated by 34.88% in 2012. The underlying index consist of 21
constituents, with a large weighting to the financials and energy sector of Thailand.
The DB x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF (HD9) tracks the FTSE Vietnam TRN Index,
appreciated 20.11% in 2012. The underlying index consists of 23 constituents,
heavily weighted towards the financial sector of Vietnam.
The DB x-trackers MSCI Indonesia TRN Index ETF (KJ) tracks the MSCI TRN
Indonesia Index, appreciated 2.78% in 2012. The underlying index consists of 25
constituents, with a large weighting to the financial and consumer discretionary sector
of Indonesia.
Most liquid ASEAN ETFs after STI ETF in 2012
18
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Together, five countries of Developing Asia, India, China,
Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia accounted for half of the
world’s gold bar and gold coin investments in 2012.
SPDR® GOLD SHARES trade the same way ordinary stocks
do. SPDR Gold Shares represents an ownership interest in a
Trust, the sole assets of which are gold bullion, and, from time
to time, a portion of cash.
SPDR Gold Shares are intended to lower a large number of
the barriers preventing investors from using gold as an asset
allocation and trading tool.
– Barriers include the logistics of buying, storing and insuring
gold. In addition, lower minimum notional value relative to
other gold markets make SPDR® GOLD SHARES
(exchange code O87), accessible to most investors.
The CIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 ETF is cash-based with a
management fee of 0.65%.
Core Satellite: SPDR® GOLD SHARES
19
SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway
ETF Portfolio
2013 2012
Total
Return
2011
Total
Return
2010
Total
Return YTD Total
Return
SPDR STI ETF (1000)
+6.86% +21.00% -14.02% +12.46%
CIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 (200 & SGD adj) +9.19% +11.03% -3.57% +18.35%
SPDR Gold Shares ETF (20 & SGD adj) -10.38% -8.60% +21.92% +16.70%
Combined Portfolio Return +0.56% +7.91% +2.32% +15.63%
Education – Portfolio Combinations up to 2 May 2013
20
STI, ASEAN & Gold: 2010 - 2012, annualised return +10.2%
Note this is purely and education example on diversification application with
ETFs. Past performances do not guarantee future results.
SPDR STI ETF & SPDE Gold Shares are SIPs
SGX The Asian Gateway
Relevant Stocks and Trusts
21
SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway
Stock/Trust SGX
Code Market
Cap S$M
ASEAN (Excl
SG) GEO Seg
Rev %
12 M Price
Chng % to
11 April 13
PARKSON RETAIL O9E 1,118 100 13.80%
TOTAL ACCESS-FRN B2W 9,495 100 20.80%
FIRST RESOURCES EB5 2,954 100 -6.30%
BUMITAMA AGRI LT P8Z 1,784 100 34.70%
GALLANT VENTURE 5IG 1,351 100 -8.20%
LIPPO MALLS D5IU 1,152 100 26.80%
YOMA STRATEGIC Z59 949 100 58.90%
KENCANA AGRI F9M 356 100 -11.40%
RH PETROGAS LTD T13 310 100 4.10%
INTERRA RESOURCE 5GI 234 100 36.50%
GLOBAL PALM RESO K6J 76 100 -20.40%
LION ASIAPAC LTD L08 75 99 -3.10%
CONSCIENCE FOOD L1D 74 98 -11.40%
HEALTH MGMT INTL 588 72 97 18.40%
THAI BEVERAGE Y92 15,443 96 104.90%
JB FOODS LTD Q0W 221 93 53.30%
KHONG GUAN FLOUR K03 55 92 18.10%
SINARMAS LAND LT A26 1,338 92 24.30%
FIRST REIT AW9U 863 91 48.00%
JARDINE CYCLE & C07 18,287 91 9.60%
RIVERSTONE HLDGS AP4 173 90 10.20%
STRAITS TRADING S20 1,499 86 15.20%
SEROJA INVESTMEN IW5 66 82 -23.20%
INDOFOOD AGRI RE 5JS 1,692 82 -23.20%
Stocks & Trusts that generate ASEAN revenue
According to Bloomberg, there are
24 Mainboard stocks listed on SGX
that maintain a market capitalisation
above S$50 million and have
specifically reported that more than
80% of their revenue was generated
in one or more neighboring ASEAN
states.
This is based on their most recent
financial year report and the table
below details the revenue that was
reported to be generated in ASEAN
economies other than Singapore.
22
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ASEAN and China Interconnectiveness
23
China & ASEAN are two of just three regions
to see GDP double over 8 years.
Both have different structural challenges.
Rebalancing focus is raising Consumption in
China, while focus is on raising investment in
ASEAN.
ACTFA is planned to grow to US$500 billion by
2015 making ASEAN China’s largest trading
partner by value.
US$ Billion 2010 2011 2012
China-ASEAN
Trade Value 292.8 363.8 400.9
YOY change (%) 37.5 24.2 10.2
Source: China Daily
SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway
There are a number of businesses in
Singapore with revenue or assets ties to
China.
The FTSE ST China Top Index (China
Top) represents the top 20 stocks within
the FTSE ST All Share Index by full
market capitalisation that either:
– Derive at least half of their sales revenue
from Mainland China; or
– Have at least half of their operational
assets located in Mainland China.
2012 total returns:
FTSE ST China Top Index +17.1%
FTSE China A50 Index +14.6%
FTSE China Top Index
24
Stock SGX
Code
Mkt
Cap
($m)
YTD Total
Return
(%)
2012
Total
Return
(%)
Dvd Ind
Yld
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS
LTD*
H78 21555 0.08 58% 2.30
WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD F34 21300 -0.01 -32% 1.52
HUTCHISON PORT HOLDINGS
TR-U*
NS8U 8903 0.09 38% 8.45
KEPPEL LAND LTD K17 6322 4.53 93% 2.93
YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING BS6 3621 -1.56 11% 5.26
YANLORD LAND GROUP LTD Z25 2796 -4.34 59% 1.32
BIOSENSORS INTERNATIONAL
GRO
B20 2073 0.41 -11% NA
COSCO CORP SINGAPORE LTD F83 1825 -6.32 5% 2.30
CAPITARETAIL CHINA TRUST AU8U 1289 5.47 56% 1.75
HYFLUX LTD 600 1182 12.96 8% 3.62
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Growing infrastructure requirements and cross border trade growth with ASEAN has
coincided with GDP growth in recent years.
On the Infrastructure side, according to the Asia Development Bank (ADB), there are
15 projects under the Master Plan of ASEAN Connectivity, of which six involve
physical infrastructure.
ADB have estimated that ASEAN needs US$600 bn between 2010 and 2020 to build
power, transport, water and sanitation and telecommunications infrastructure.
Conventional methods to raise funds include government funding, foreign direct
investment, public and private partnerships and capital markets.
REITs or Business Trusts can pay distributions to investors out of operating cash
flows and can thus be an appropriate structure for an organisation with high initial
capital expenditures with stable operating cash flows. The Business Trust structure is
more suited for businesses with stable growth and cash flow, such as infrastructure
and utilities businesses, vehicle leases and charters.
Possible capital market implications into 2020
25
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In 2012, the number of Business Trusts listed on SGX grew
30% with the listing of Ascendas Hospitality Business Trust,
Far East Hospitality Business Trust and Religare Health Trust.
The combined full market capitalisation of the 13 Business
Trusts listed on SGX currently amounts to S$18.6 billion.
According to the MAS’s OPERA database, two Business
Trusts, Global Telecommunications Infrastructure Trust and
Croesus Retail Trust have lodged listing prospectuses.
A Business Trust is an alternative structure of a commercial
operation which might otherwise be legally incorporated as
company. Typically, a Business Trust holds and manages
assets for the Trust beneficiaries. These assets can be related
to property, infrastructure, utilities and shipping.
Recent Business Trust Highlights
26
SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway
Mr Arjun Goswami (Head of Regional
Cooperation of the Southeast Asia
Department of ADB) on regional
infrastructure noted last year that "in the
medium- to longer-term, improved
infrastructure would contribute to lowered
costs of doing business, increased market
accessibility and enhanced competitiveness."
Similarly through cross border trading, the
ASEAN trading link enhances accessibility of
ASEAN assets, reduces entry costs for
emerging brokers and promotes the ASEAN
asset class.
Objectives of the ASEAN Trading Link
27
Current Members of the Trading Link:
Bursa Malaysia
Stock Exchange of Thailand
Singapore Exchange
SGX The Asian Gateway SGX The Asian Gateway
How diverse are Singapore Stocks and Sectors?
P
E
R
F
O
R
M
A
N
C
E
F
T
S
E
S
T
S
E
C
T
O
R
I
N
D
I
C
E
S
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Utilities RE D & H RE D & H Utilities Utilities Telco Oil & Gas Healthcare Telco RE D & H
138.29% 41.90% 33.75% 65.22% 118.42% -36.78% 160.58% 64.60% 4.99% 56.04%
Technology REITs Healthcare RE D & H Oil & Gas Cons Services Technology Industrials Healthcare Financial
84.76% 30.84% 30.53% 54.54% 78.03% -43.39% 115.23% 25.58% 3.70% 36.84%
Cons Goods Cons Services Oil & Gas REITsBasic
MaterialsSTI Healthcare Cons Services REITs REITS
62.07% 23.37% 28.52% 41.45% 57.12% -49.17% 114.79% 17.63% -16.04% 36.67%
Telco Healthcare Telco Financial Industrials Financial Cons Goods Oil & Gas STI Industrials
55% 22.46% 20.53% 38.04% 39.55% -51.43% 103.20% 11.14% -17.04% 27.34%
Oil & Gas Telco Industrials Cons Goods Cons Goods RE D & H RE D & H REITs Oil & Gas Oil & Gas
54.76% 22.35% 17.95% 36.25% 22.12% -56.78% 89.94% 10.62% -17.40% 23.79%
Industrials STI Financial Cons Services Telco REITs Utilities STI Industrials STI
53.01% 15.58% 14.99% 31.36% 21.61% -59.03% 81.38% 10.09% -18.57% 19.68%
Basic
MaterialsFinancial STI STI STI Technology Industrials Cons Goods Cons Services Utilities
46.41% 14.68% 14.04% 27.97% 18.74% -60.02% 76.35% 9.80% -18.83% 14.99%
Healthcare Cons Goods REITs Telco Cons Services Industrials Financial Technology Cons Goods Telco
41.54% 12.32% 13.11% 25.09% 14.30% -60.08% 75.09% 9.56% -23.05% 8.55%
REITs Industrials Cons ServicesBasic
MaterialsRE D & H Healthcare REITs RE D & H Financial Technology
34.65% 10.35% 10.10% 24.99% 13.97% -60.15% 69.35% 6.36% -23.41% 4.44%
STIBasic
MaterialsCons Goods Industrials Financial Cons Goods STI Utilities RE D & H Cons Services
32.81% 2.48% 9.29% 19.20% 9.61% -63.28% 64.49% 4.62% -33.24% 4.43%
RE D & H Oil & Gas Utilities Healthcare Healthcare UtilitiesBasic
MaterialsFinancial
Basic
Materials
Basic
Materials27.51% 0.32% 2.22% 16.79% 9.43% -72.72% 58.85% 2.38% -40.47% 2.18%
Financial Technology Technology Technology Technology Oil & Gas Cons Services Telco Technology Healthcare
27.28% -29.75% -0.47% 10.01% 1.63% -73.17% 58.35% 0.01% -41.78% -4.13%
Cons Services UtilitiesBasic
MaterialsOil & Gas REITs
Basic
MaterialsTelco
Basic
MaterialsUtilities Cons Goods
18.75% -59.82% -11.69% 2.75% -2.59% -74.13% 21.87% -3.87% -45.12% -17.55%
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