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Achievement Standard 3.4 Describe aggregate economic activity.

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Achievement Standard 3.4. Describe aggregate economic activity. Aggregate?. The amount or total formed from separate units. Aggregate refers to a total, everything added up. Aggregate = Total The economy can be viewed as a series of aggregates, flowing together to make a working whole. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Achievement Standard 3.4

Achievement Standard 3.4

Describe aggregate economic activity.

Page 2: Achievement Standard 3.4

Aggregate?

The amount or total formed from separate units. Aggregate refers to a total, everything added up.

Aggregate = Total

The economy can be viewed as a series of aggregates, flowing together to make a working whole

Page 3: Achievement Standard 3.4

The Circular Flow Model

Shows the economic transactions that occur between households, firms and other sectors in the economy.

Money flows- We will only focus money flows as it is simpler than trying to account for the physical flows.

Page 4: Achievement Standard 3.4

The Circular Flow of Income and Spending

The simplest form of circular flow

HouseholdsProducers

Incomes $ rent wages interest profit

$ Consumption

Goods and Services

Factors of production

Page 5: Achievement Standard 3.4

Introduction of the Financial Sector

a

b

d

c

Households Producers

Financial Institutions

C (Payments for goods and services)

Y (Income)

S (savings)

I (Investment)

Page 6: Achievement Standard 3.4

An Open Economy

a

b

c

d

f

g

HouseholdsProducers

Financial Institutions

Overseas Sector

C (consumption)

Y (Income)

S (Savings)

I (Investment)

X (Export receipts)

M (Import payments)

Page 7: Achievement Standard 3.4

Role of the Government

a

b

c

d

f

g

HouseholdsProducers

Financial Institutions

Overseas Sector

C (consumption)

Y (Income)

S (Savings)

I (Investment)

X (Export receipts)

M (Import payments)

Government

a b

c

tr (transfers)

T (taxes)

G (Government Spending)

Page 8: Achievement Standard 3.4

The Circular Flow Model

a

b

c

d

e

f

h g

i

C (consumption)

HouseholdsProducer

Financial Institutions

Overseas Sector

Y (Income)

S (Savings)

I (Investment)

X (Export receipts)

M (Import payments)

T (taxes)

tr (transfers)

G (Government Spending)

Government

Page 9: Achievement Standard 3.4

The Circular Flow model Y= Incomes including rent wages interest and profit C= Consumption spending- the payment for goods and

services S= Savings – income not spent on consumption this is a

withdrawal from the economy I= Investment spending-purchase of capital goods. This is

an injection into the economy X= Export receipts- Money received for exports sold M= Import payments- Payments made for imports

purchased G= Government Spending- on collective goods T= Taxes the government collects from households and

firms. These are used to fund G and Tr. Tr= Transfer money from one group to another, because of

this transfer payments are not true expenditure.

Page 10: Achievement Standard 3.4

Page 138

Questions 1-3

Page 11: Achievement Standard 3.4

The Circular Flow Model

a

b

c

d

e

f

h g

i

C (consumption)

HouseholdsProducer

Financial Institutions

Overseas Sector

Y (Income)

S (Savings)

I (Investment)

X (Export receipts)

M (Import payments)

T (taxes)

tr (transfers)

G (Government Spending)

Government

Page 12: Achievement Standard 3.4

Calculating National Output

What is national output? National Output =Total quantity of goods and services

demanded in an economy in a year.

Y= National outputY = C +I +∆R

Where ∆R is changes in stocksStocks are caused from unplanned investment where there

is a build up of inventories/ stocks ready for sale. Negative unplanned investment also occurs however when there is a rundown of stocks.

Page 13: Achievement Standard 3.4

Calculating National Output

The value of incomes always equals the value of what is produced

National Output= C +I+ ∆RNational Income=C +S

Where national incomes is the total incomes resulting from the production of goods and services in an economy in a year.

Because outcome equals income, it follows that

C+S=C+I+ ∆RS=I + ∆R

Page 14: Achievement Standard 3.4

Calculating national Output using the Circular flow model. Output Y = C + I + ∆R + G + (X-M) Income Y= C + S +T

Output = Income I + ∆R + G +X = S + T + M(Injections= Withdrawals)

For the economy to be in equilibrium planned injections must equal planned withdrawals. (∆R=0)

Page 15: Achievement Standard 3.4

Calculating national Output using the Circular flow model. Changes in any of the flows in the circular flow

diagram will result in the changes in national income.

E.g What do you think would happen if people saved more?

C would decrease and this would result in a reduction in national income

Page 16: Achievement Standard 3.4

Aggregate Demand

What does aggregate mean? Aggregate refers to a total, everything added up.

Aggregate demand is the total demand in the economy. AD shows how many goods and services will be demanded in an economy given the general price level and the level of income.

Aggregate demand is equivalent to national output What are the components of national output? Output Y = C + I + ∆R + G + (X-M)

AD=C+I +G + (X-M)

Page 17: Achievement Standard 3.4

Components of Aggregate demand

AD=C+I +G + (X-M)

C= ConsumptionTotal demand for all final goods and services. This is shown by the household sector through its spending

$ Consumption

Households

Page 18: Achievement Standard 3.4

Household Consumption Expenditure 1995-2000

Food and beverages

Clothing and footwear Housing Transport Other G&S

$ Million

1995 8922 2486 11083 7934 5499

1996 9306 2523 11243 8699 5941

1997 9428 2639 11395 9389 6080

1998 9595 2696 11548 8974 6317

1999 9714 2758 11701 9429 6459

2000 10164 2934 11879 9966 6806

1. In 2000, Real GDP was $102445million. What proportion of the 2000 GDP was made up of household consumption?

2. Which item of expenditure accounted for the largest proportion of household consumption spending over the period 1995-2000?

3. Why is savings not on the table?

Page 19: Achievement Standard 3.4

AD=C+I +G + (X-M)

I=Investment = Expenditure by businesses as they demand investment/capital goods.

Investment is exogenous. It is not influenced by the level of income but by

other elements in the circular flow model. Three main reasons why firms invest?• Expect high demand in the future• Existing capital has depreciated and needs replacing• Changes in government policies make it favourable to invest. The main determinant of the level of investment

is the market interest rate

Page 20: Achievement Standard 3.4

Gross Capital Fixed Formation

Expenditure of producers on investment on new plant and machinery

New capital spending by the govt e.g. motorways, roading

Investment spending by households on housing.

Page 21: Achievement Standard 3.4

Capital Goods- 2002 calendar year $ (million)

01000200030004000500060007000

Machinery and plant Transportequipment

Total

Capital goods

$(m

illio

n) Exports

Imports

1. What are capital goods?

2. Using the information above, analyse the links between, imports and investment.

3. Why do you think this link exists?

4. Why do you think Investment is important for economic growth?

Page 22: Achievement Standard 3.4

AD=C+I +G + (X-M)

G= Government spending as it demands goods and services. Also exogenous (not dependent on level of national income)The government decides on what it is going to spend the money on then goes about raising the money necessary.

Major items of expenditure in NZ are • Health • Education• Welfare

Page 23: Achievement Standard 3.4

AD=C+I +G + (X-M)

(X-M)= Net exports We use net exports as we are interested in

what NZ economy produces. M>X (X-M)? + or – This is a withdrawal from the circular flow M<X (X-M)? + or - This is an injection from the circular flow.

Page 24: Achievement Standard 3.4

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GDP= the money value of final goods and services produced in an economy in a year.

Three ways to measure GDP • Production• Income• Expenditure

Why do you think we would want to measure GDP?

Page 25: Achievement Standard 3.4

GDP An economies standard of living is measured by

the number of goods and services that it has available to use and enjoy.

An economies growth can be measured by the increase in the number of goods and services it makes

Why do you think investment and savings are so important in an economies growth?

Page 26: Achievement Standard 3.4

Measuring GDP The Expenditure Approach- by adding up selling prices

of all goods and services bought in the economy then making allowances for goods and services bought overseas.

Formula= C + I + ∆R + G + (X-M)

Consumption excludes buying new houses- this is investment

Investment includes govt investment (Roading)• Change in inventories are included as these represent goods

available for sale and represent an increase in investment spending

• A decrease in stocks will reduce GDP because they represent expenditure on goods that were produced in the previous year.

Page 27: Achievement Standard 3.4

Measuring GDP

The income approach- by adding up incomes generated in the production process.

Income includes wages, salaries (Compensation to employees) profits, dividends, rents, interest (Gross operating surplus)

Then make final adjustments to account for govt intervention. (Add taxes on production e.g. GST and imports e.g. tariffs then takeaway subsidies)

Y= C+ S + T

Page 28: Achievement Standard 3.4

The production approach- measures the value added by producers, by deducting the value of goods and services used up in the production from the total value of goods and services produced.

To calculate find the value that each sector/producer adds to the value of the product during the production process.

A problem that can occur with this approach is that of double counting.

We will focus on the other two approaches

Measuring GDP

Page 29: Achievement Standard 3.4

Find GDP for the following data using the income and expenditure approaches

Grower Miller Baker

Wages 30 45 75

Intermediate goods

- 30 75

Sales price

30 75 150

Values of output at each stage of Bread production

Page 30: Achievement Standard 3.4

• The expenditure approach= value of the final product = $150 million

Wheat Grower Miller Baker

Wages 30 45 75

Intermediate goods

- 30 75

Sales price 30 75 150

•The incomes approach totals wages at each stage of production= 30+45+75=$150million

Page 31: Achievement Standard 3.4

NSNA The New Zealand System of National Accounts

(NZSNA) provides an international standard of measure of GDP that enables international comparisons

Sometimes there will be a statistical discrepancy in the NSNA this is

Basically it is used to make Income and Expenditure approaches balance

Statistical discrepancy = Income Approach GDP – Expenditure Approach GDP

Page 32: Achievement Standard 3.4

NZSNA Terminology

Table 6.2

Consumption

Investment

Government Spending

Net Exports

Final private expenditure

Gross fixed capital formation

Government final expenditure

Exports of goods and services – Imports of goods and services.

Page 33: Achievement Standard 3.4

NZSNA Terminology

Table 6.2

Wages and salaries

Gross Profits

Depreciation

Net Indirect Taxes

Compensation of Employees

Operating Surplus

Consumption of fixed capital

Indirect taxes minussubsidies.

Page 34: Achievement Standard 3.4

Important things to remember when calculating GDP Include only G&S produced in NZ economy

Include G&S produced only within that time period. (inventories included in time period they were made not when they were sold)

Avoid double counting (second hand goods not counted)

Page 35: Achievement Standard 3.4

Questions What is GDP? What is the formula for calculating expenditure on GDP? Draw the simple circular flow diagram With reference to the model explain three ways GDP can be

measured Calculate GDP from the data below using the Income and

Expenditure methods

Item $m Item $mExports of G$S 4000 Indirect taxes 1000Compensation employees 10000 Imports of G&S 4000Gross fixed capital formation 2500 Subsidies 800Private spending 12000 Increase in stocks 200

Gross Operating surplus 7500

Government spending 3000

Page 36: Achievement Standard 3.4

Nominal GDP VS Real GDPQuantity of Pizzas

Price of pizzas

Quantity of pies

Price of pies

2000 10 $10 15 $5

2004 20 $12 30 $6

Imagine the economy only produces pizzas and pies.

Calculate GDP in year as the market value of production

GDP 2000=(10pizzasX$10/pizza) +(15piesX$5/pie)=$175

GDP 2004=(20pizzasX$12/pizza) + (30piesX$6/pie)=$420

Looking at these two GDPs what would you conclude?BUT

Looking closely you can see the quantities produced of pizzas and pies in 2004 are twice that produced in 2000

If eco activity exactly doubled why do the calculated values of GDP show a greater increase?

Prices as well as quantities rose!

Page 37: Achievement Standard 3.4

Nominal and Real GDP Notes Nominal GDP= the actual dollar value of all

goods and services produced in a year

Inflation =

These values cannot be meaningfully compared from year to year

Increase’s in the price level

Page 38: Achievement Standard 3.4

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Measures the price level of a ‘basket’ goods and services

purchased by the average NZ household

The data on prices comes from household surveys conducted by Statistics New Zealand

CPI is then released quarterly

Used as a general measure of inflation

Indicates the effect of price changes on the purchasing power of households

To calculate and index =Expenditure Now Expenditure Base Year

Page 39: Achievement Standard 3.4

Consumer Price IndexYear CPI % price

level change

2002 1000

2003 1222

2004 1300

2005 2300

22.2%

30%

130%

Measures rate of change in price level from the base year (2002).

Rate of change between 2003 and 2004 is

1300 – 1222 * 100 12226.4%

Page 40: Achievement Standard 3.4

Change in CPI

An increase in the CPI is called inflation. The price level increases. The purchasing power of money decreases.

A decrease in the CPI is called deflation.

Disinflation refers to a decrease in the inflation rate. The CPI is increasing at a decreasing rate.

Page 41: Achievement Standard 3.4

Real Values

Calculated using constant prices. –prices used for one year is used to calculate values for all years

Are inflation adjusted. Can be meaningfully compared from year to

year Real Income= Nominal Value X 1000

CPI

Page 42: Achievement Standard 3.4

Real GDP and Nominal GDP

Nominal GDP= the actual dollar value of all goods and services produced in a year

Real GDP= is nominal GDP adjusted for inflation. This measure allows for comparison of changes in the value

of national output without price changes distorting the data.

Page 43: Achievement Standard 3.4

Real GDP In order to calculate RGDP the effect of price

increases need to be removed.

We will use the CPI index to do this: both the base year value (1000) and the value for the year we are calculating the RGDP for.

The part of the equation in which this is taken into account is the GDP deflator: (taking inflation out of GDP value)

CPIbase

CPIyear1

Page 44: Achievement Standard 3.4

Real GDP equation

RGDP = GDPyear1 × CPIbase (GDP deflator)

CPIyear1

NOTE: Year 1 refers to the year you are calculating the RGDP for.

Page 45: Achievement Standard 3.4

Real GDPQuantity of Pizzas

Price of pizzas

Quantity of pies

Price of pies

2000 10 $10 15 $5

2004 20 $12 30 $6

Using the data in the table above and assume year 2000 is the base year find real GDP fro years 2000 and 2004

How much did real output grow between 2000 and 2004

Year 2000 real GDP=(10pizzasX$10/pizza) +(15piesX$5/pie)=$175

Year 2004 real GDP=(year 2004 quantity pizza's X year 2000 pizza prices) + (Year 2004 quantity pies X year 2000 pie prices)

= (20X$10) + (30X$5)

=$350

By using real GDP we have eliminated the effects of price changes and obtained a reasonable measure of actual change in physical production

Page 46: Achievement Standard 3.4

Measuring the rate of Economic Growth

Rate of growth= GDP 2nd year-GDP 1st year x 100

GDP 1ST year

Rate of inflation= CPI 2ND year - CPI 1ST year x 100

CPI 1ST year

Calculating the rate of inflation

Page 47: Achievement Standard 3.4

Limitations to GDP In groups give an opinion into how well GDP is as

a measure of the standard of living.

Think about Unpaid work? Non-market activities? If it is not sold it

is not counted Merit and demerit goods The distribution of wealth.

Standard of living - the degree to which people have access to goods and services that make their lives easier, healthier, safer and more enjoyable

Page 48: Achievement Standard 3.4

Limitations to GDP as a measure of Standard of Living

Non market activity GDP excludes

Voluntary Labour Cash transactions, barter Illegal transactions

Relative Merits of production There is no distinction in GDP whether goods being produced are

merit goods or demerit goods e.g. a dollar spend on cigarettes has the same weight as a dollar spent on education

Distribution of Income GDP is a total. Does not tell us how this total is distributed

e.g. a country may have high GDP but there also may be large numbers of people living in poverty.

Page 49: Achievement Standard 3.4

GDP per capita

Use GDP per capita (per head of population).

GDP per capita = GDP

Total Population

Shows how much of the economies total production each person would receive if it was divided equally

Page 50: Achievement Standard 3.4

The Business (Trade Cycle

Over time fluctuations in economic activity occur.

The trade cycle shows us how fluctuations in the levels of output, employment, income and trade affect the level of real GDP.

Page 51: Achievement Standard 3.4

A Typical Trade Cycle

Time

Real

GDP

Boom

Peak

Recession

Trough/Depression

Recovery

Page 52: Achievement Standard 3.4

Trade Cycles Boom

Rising interest rates High eco activity “Full” employment Great optimism Businesses operating at capacity

Peak (Turning point) Eventually rate of growth must slow down. Even if economy is still

growing t is now doing so at a decreasing rate

Recession Rising unemployment and business failures Savings may increase as people fear unemployment Business activity slows down

Page 53: Achievement Standard 3.4

Trade Cycle Depression (Trough)

Unemployment stabilised Low level eco activity Excess capacity Interest rates low Low consumption , low saving

Eventually some major piece of capital equipment will need replacing- injection of investment lead to recovery

Recovery Rise in real GDP slow at first, speeds up Rehiring of workers as demand increases Unemployment falls Consumption increases

Page 54: Achievement Standard 3.4

Ryan’s Thinker Keys

The Variations Key

How many other ways can you think of that may be used as a measure of standard of living if GDP was not used?

Page 55: Achievement Standard 3.4

National Income statistics for New Landzia 2050

National income statistics for Ecotopia 2050

Exports of G$S 51 Exports of G$S 51

Compensation employees

75 Change in inventories

7

Gross fixed capital formation

43 Gross fixed capital formation

43

Final consumption expenditure: private

57 Final consumption expenditure: private

57

Final consumption expenditure: government

36 Final consumption expenditure: government

36

Subsidies 8 Imports of goods and services

54

Gross operating surplus

76 Statistical Discrepancy

3

Indirect taxes 30 Taxes on production and imports

30

Page 56: Achievement Standard 3.4
Page 57: Achievement Standard 3.4

SLO: Describe, Explain and anaylse

Aggregate demand The AD curve, reasons for its slope Factors that move AD

Page 58: Achievement Standard 3.4

Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply The AD/AS model is used to demonstrate equilibrium

national income

Actual level of national income may be above or below the AD/AS equilibrium but economic forces will act on national income and force it to equilibrium.

AD/AS can help explain inflation and unemployment and shows us the impact of Government policies Exchange rate Other influences

Page 59: Achievement Standard 3.4

Aggregate Demand

AD= is national output and represents total demand in the economy

AD= C + I + G + (X-M) + ∆ R

Look at your circular flow diagram which half does AD relate to?

The AD curve shows us the quantity of output demanded at each price level.

Page 60: Achievement Standard 3.4

Aggregate Demand Curve

Real GDP (Y)

Price Level

AD

AD curve bows towards the origin

AD should not be confused with market demand curve for a commodity

The axes are different and reasons for AD curves shape very different.

Page 61: Achievement Standard 3.4

Reasons for downward sloping of AD curve An increase in the price level

Means all goods and services are more expensive. Less can be bough with a given quaintly of income C

Leads to an increase in the rate of interest. Costs of borrowing increases C I AD

Exports now relatively more expensive, means decrease in demand for exports, (X-M) low

Page 62: Achievement Standard 3.4

Shifts along the AD curve

Change in price level causesMovement along the AD curve

AD

PL1

PL

YY1

Page 63: Achievement Standard 3.4

Shifts of the AD curve Change in any variable in the AD equation

(AD=C+ I+ G+ (X-M)) will move the AD curve itself.

Shift to the right

C G X

Shift to the Left

C G X

Page 64: Achievement Standard 3.4

Aggregate Supply Shows the quantity of national output that all

producers are willing to supply at each price level.

Micro- Price increases quantity supplied increases- Upwards sloping supply curve

Macro- Upwards sloping also. But it is relatively flat at low levels and gets steeper as it approaches capacity

Price Level

Real GDP (Y)

ASAggregate Supply Curve

Page 65: Achievement Standard 3.4

Shifts in AS curve

Y Y1

PL1

PL

A change in the price level will cause a movement along the supply curve.

AS

Page 66: Achievement Standard 3.4

Pric

e Le

vel

Real Income (Y) ,output, employment Good X

Goo

d Y

A

A

B

B

Yf

C

C

Aggregate Supply CurveEconomies Production Possibilities Curve

1. At very low levels of output there is excess capacity (idle factories, machinery and unemployed workers). Shown by point A, we are well inside our PPC curve. Production could be increased with very little cost, meaning prices don’t need to increase as much

2. As production increases diminishing returns sets in. Output will only rise at a higher price level shown by upwards sloping of the curve, point B

3. At greater levels of output, businesses are being pushed to their maximum and production becomes inefficient. Overtime will be paid as there are less people to be employed as we move towards Yf. The economy is operating on its PPC. The economy can operate at point C only in the short run.

Page 67: Achievement Standard 3.4

Shifts of the AS curveShift to the

right:Wages

Imported raw

materials

Productivity

Shift to the leftWages

Imported raw materials

Productivity

Page 68: Achievement Standard 3.4

Shifts of the AS curve Any shifts of the AS curve is caused by changes to:Wage rates

Increases in wages would increase the costs of production.

Imported Factor Costs Are a cost of production. E.G. If cost of Oil increases then

cost of production increases.

Changes in Productivity Can be due to improved technology or processes. This

reduces costs of production and more can be produced at the existing price.

Page 69: Achievement Standard 3.4

Long Run AS curve

SRAS

The SRAS can operate at a level above full capacity for limited periods of time.

This will lead to increased competition for scarce resources as producers attempt to increase output.

This then causes resource costs to increase (e.g. higher wages) and will Shifts SRAS to the left back to Yf.

The Long-run AS curve is at full employment level.

LRAS

YYf

Price level

Page 70: Achievement Standard 3.4

Work Books page 151

Questions 1-2

Page 71: Achievement Standard 3.4

Questions to think about

Which two categories in the National Accounts make up the investment flow on the circular flow income model?

Briefly explain the difference between these two categories

Page 72: Achievement Standard 3.4

Underlying causes of changes in AD

We know that AD=C+I+G+(X-M) If either of these components increase AD also

increases, but what will cause either of these components to increase?

Group 1 – Consumption spending will increase if? Group 2- Investment spending will increase if? Group 3 – Government spending will increase if? Group 4 – Expenditure on net exports will increase if?

Report back to the class on your findings in 10mins.

Page 73: Achievement Standard 3.4

Equilibrium

YfYe

PLe

Full employment (economic potential)

Occurs where AD=AS and the price level PLe.

This level also indicates the level of employment.

Equilibrium represents where the economy will tend to move towards. Once we are at this equilibrium the economy will stay here unless AD or AS moves

This means that if there is unemployment at the equilibrium level, it is likely to be chronic and will not go away by itself. Unless AD or As alters, the unemployment level will stay the same.

Equilibrium AD/AS

Page 74: Achievement Standard 3.4

Changes to Equilibrium A change in either aggregate demand or aggregate supply results in a change in the equilibrium price level and a change in the level of national income, output and employment.

Y

Price Level

An increase in AS•A decrease in the price level

•An increase in real income, output and employment

AS’

PL

PL’

Ye Ye’

AS’’

Ye’’

PL ‘’

A decrease in AS

An increase in the price level

A decrease in real income, output and employment levels

Page 75: Achievement Standard 3.4

Changes in AD and AS

What will happen if there is an increase in AD?

Increase in price level Increase in real income, output and employment What will happen if there is a decrease in AD? A decrease in price level A decrease in real income, output and

employment.

Page 76: Achievement Standard 3.4

Disequilibrium

Real Income (Y) ,

output, employment

Pric

e Le

vel

PLe

Ye

If AD>AS

If AD<AS

Lead to an unplanned build up of stock. Producers will cut back on production. Workers will be laid off causing income to fall. This leads to prices falling

Lead to an unplanned rundown of stocks. Producers will respond by increasing output but may also have to pay for more resources. Goods become scarce which causes price to increase.

Equilibrium AD/AS

Page 77: Achievement Standard 3.4

YfYe Y

Pl

Price Level

Actual GDP

PL2

Actual GDP is below full employment level of GDP.

There is excess production because of a lack of demand.

AD is at a point where a price level of PL1 is needed to increase demand.

BUT

AS is operating at PL2

What will be the result?

Stocks will build up

Businesses will lay off workers

National output will fall and unemployment will rise

PL1

Page 78: Achievement Standard 3.4

Page 153 question 3-4

Page 79: Achievement Standard 3.4
Page 80: Achievement Standard 3.4

AD/AS analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy. Full employment is where the economy is

operating on the PPC and all existing productive capacity is used.

Often this is not the same as Ye

Page 81: Achievement Standard 3.4

Deflationary Gap

Real GDP

Price Level

YfY

Unemployment

Deflationary GapPL

AD and AS meet at a level of Real GDP that is below economic capacity. Therefore we have unemployment.

Unemployment is shown by Y being less than Yf

This level of unemployment is also called the deflationary gap.

(As prices will have to fall to reach full employment)

In conditions like this the characteristics of a recession can be seen! (also called a recessionary gap)

We are operating well within the PPC.

How would the government intervene to try and close this gap?

Page 82: Achievement Standard 3.4

Why is a Recessionary (Defaltionary) gap unfavourable?

Equilibrium income is below full employment level of income resulting in Unemployment Idle Factories

This is a concern to the government because, even though the economy is in equilibrium there is under-utilised resources in the economy i.e. unemployed workers

Page 83: Achievement Standard 3.4

Expansionary Fiscal Policy The government can run an expansionary

fiscal policy by increasing government spending and reducing taxes.

This will result in a budget deficit or a reduction in the surplus.

Page 84: Achievement Standard 3.4

Tax Cuts A reduction in income taxes increases

consumers disposable income, leading

to an increase in consumption spending

(C)

A reduction in company taxes enable companies to distribute more after tax income to shareholders in the

form of dividend increasing income (Y) To increase investment spending (I)

An increase in C and I lead to AD increasing

Page 85: Achievement Standard 3.4

Price Level

YfY

Deflationary Gap

PL

Expansionary Fiscal Gap

Lower tax rates or increase in govt spending to increase aggregate demand.

This is called operating a budget deficit

How this deficit is funded will depend on how much the AD moves.

If the govt borrows from the banks or the public (non monetised). There will be a greater transaction demand for money which will push the interest rate up. This will then decrease I and C causing AD to move back but not as much as the initial shift left.

Page 86: Achievement Standard 3.4

Inflationary Gap

YeYf

PL

Ye is now greater than Yf

The economy is trying to achieve a level of real GDP that is beyond its capacity.

AD>AS This gap is called an output gap.

Inflationary Gap

How would the government intervene to try and close this gap?

Page 87: Achievement Standard 3.4

Why is a Inflationary gap unfavourable? National income is temporarily at an over-

full level of income, and there is full employment and inflationary pressure.

This is a concern to the government because there will be pressure for resource costs to rise leading to inflation.

Page 88: Achievement Standard 3.4

Contractionary Fiscal Policy The government will run a contractionary fiscal policy

by increasing taxes or reducing spending in key areas such as health, education and cutting benefits.

This will result in a budget surplus or a reduction in the deficit.

Increases in Tax leads to less disposable income meaning less consumption.

Lower Government spending and lower consumption will cause the AD curve to move to the left.

Page 89: Achievement Standard 3.4

PL

Inflationary Gap

Contractionary fiscal policy would mean running a budget surplus (This is done through reducing government spending or increasing tax)

AD would be reduced through less consumer spending and/or less govt spending

Conctractionary Fiscal Policy

Page 90: Achievement Standard 3.4

Fiscal Policy Refers to the governments revenue and expenditure

decisions. These decisions are shown in the Budget. The Budget sets out the sources of govt revenue and the

areas of expenditure.

Page 91: Achievement Standard 3.4

The Impact of Fiscal Policy

The govt raises most of its revenue as taxation from individuals and firms

Raising revenue through collection of taxes is a withdrawal from the economy. T disposable incomes and after tax incomes of

businesses C I

So an increase in the tax rate to increase govt revenue will have a negative effect on economic activityT increases disposable incomes and after tax incomes of businesses C I

Page 92: Achievement Standard 3.4

Impact of Fiscal Policy

However, Govt spending has a considerable impact on the economy.

Govt spending is an injection into the economy. G increases the incomes of individuals and

businesses. C I

G decreases the incomes of individuals and businesses C I

Page 93: Achievement Standard 3.4

How is your Thinking Shaping Up?Copy one shape into your books and answer the questions.

What is squaring your thinking?

What d

o you ag

ree with?

What is the most important thing you have learnt?W

hat is at the top of your head?

Wha

t is

goin

g ar

ound

you

r hea

d? W

hat are your questions?

How do you feel about your learning? J.Wilson & K Murdoch 2006,

How to succeed with thinking, Curriculum Corporation

Page 94: Achievement Standard 3.4

These are answers and your job is to think of a question for each one

Government revenue and expenditure decisions

Expansionary fiscal gap

Wages increase, cost of imported raw materials increase, productivity decreases

At very low levels of output there is excess capacity

Will move the AD curve to the right

The government raises most of its revenue through taxation.

Page 95: Achievement Standard 3.4

LI- Understand the role of the RBNZ and its implementation

of Monetary Policy.

Define money supply and explain how financial

institutions can affect this.

Page 96: Achievement Standard 3.4

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

The RBNZ has five roles It implements Monetary policy aimed at price

stability.To issue currency It acts as the Governments Banker It is the Central Bank. It is the banker for

banks and hold their settlement cash. Banks can only be called registered banks if they

hold settlement cash with the RBNZ It supervises the banking system

Page 97: Achievement Standard 3.4

What is Money?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjTs-rjVkB8&feature=related

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x871et_real-world-economics-barter-bank-no_school

Page 98: Achievement Standard 3.4

Barter Banknotes and Beyond1. What was the problem with barter?

1. Double coincidence of wants

2. What characteristics does money need to have?1. Long Lasting2. Easily divisible3. Reasonably scarce4. Easy to store

3. What other items have been used as money in the past?1. Salt 2. Cloth3. Shells4. Tabacco

4. What was an early problem with money? Burglars

Page 99: Achievement Standard 3.4

What were the first banks called? GoldSmiths

Name major functions of banks Look after customers money (Savings) Lending money to customers

If all depositors wanted their money back from the bank at once what would happen?

The bank would go bankrupt Why would people be no better off if the nation’s money

supply increased? If the money supply doubles, the prices will double (inflation) we

would be no better off What causes the money supply to change?

Banks increasing net lending Government spending increases Spending > Taxation ----- Money supply will increase

Page 100: Achievement Standard 3.4

Money Supply

The official money supply has three measures

1. M1-Notes and coins in circulation plus other funds that are immediately accessible by deposit holders without making a trip to the bank

2. M2=M1 + other on call funds at registered banks and non-bank financial institutions (e.g. savings, eftpos)

3. M3=M2+ term deposits at registered banks and non-bank financial institutions

Page 101: Achievement Standard 3.4

Financial Institutions and Money Supply

What determines the amount of money in the economy?

If the nations money supply consisted entirely of currency the answer would be simple: The supply of money would just be equal to the value of the currency created and circulated by the government.

However, in modern economies money supply consists not only just currency but also deposits balances held at private banks

Page 102: Achievement Standard 3.4

Example- Gorgonzola land Originally no commercial banking system Barter becomes a problem- Govt directs central

bank to put into circulation $1million.

Printed and distributed to the public Money supply =$1million But notes may be lost or stolen- public unhappy

Page 103: Achievement Standard 3.4

Example- Gorgonzola land In response some people set up a system of commercial banks

At first- banks only storage vaults People need to withdraw $ - physically withdraw $

or write a cheque gives banks permission to transfer $

Suppose all $1million is deposited as people prefer bank deposits to cash

Page 104: Achievement Standard 3.4

Example- Gorgonzola landBalance sheet of Gorgonzolan Commercial Banks

Assets Liabilities

Currency $1’000’000 Deposits $1’000’000

Cash held by banks are called bank reserves. In this example banks reserves for all the banks equal 1000000. Banks hold reserves to meet their depositors demands for cash withdrawals.

In this situation 100% reserve banking.

Bank reserves are held in vaults rather than circulated among the public and thus are not counted as part of the money supply.

But bank deposit balances are counted as money.

Money supply= $1million

Page 105: Achievement Standard 3.4

Example- Gorgonzola land Commerical banks decide they only need to keep

reserves equal to 10% of deposits. The remaining 90% can be lent out to borrowers to earn interest.

Balance sheet of Gorgonzolan Commercial Banks

Assets Liabilities

Currency=reserves

100’000 Deposits 1’000’000

Loans 900’000

Notice $900,000 have flown out of the banking system into the hands of the public. We assume citizens prefer bank deposits to cash ao will redeposit the $900’000

Page 106: Achievement Standard 3.4

Example- Gorgonzola land

Balance sheet of Gorgonzolan Commercial Banks

Assets Liabilities

Currency= reserves

1’000’000 Deposits 1’900’000

Loans 900’000

Money supply now equals $1’900’000!

The existence of the commercial banking system has permitted the creation of new money

Page 107: Achievement Standard 3.4

Example- Gorgonzola land Bankers see they are keeping to many reserves With deposits of $1’900’000 and a 10% reserve

deposit ratio, banks need only $190’000 in reserves. $810’000 too much.

Banks lend out an extra $810’000 These are eventually redeposited into banks

Balance sheet of Gorgonzolan Commercial Banks

Assets Liabilities

Currency= reserves

1’000’000 Deposits 2’710’000

Loans 1’710’000

Page 108: Achievement Standard 3.4

Example- Gorgonzola land Money supply=2’710’000 The process of expansion of loans and deposits

will only end when reserves equal 10% of bank deposits.

Balance sheet of Gorgonzolan Commercial Banks

Assets Liabilities

Currency= reserves

1’000’000 Deposits 10’000’000

Loans 9’000’000

Money supply= 10’000’000

Page 109: Achievement Standard 3.4

Money supply

Desired reserve-deposit ratio= Bank reserve

Bank deposit

Bank deposits = Bank reserves

Desired reserve-deposit ratio

Bank reserves = $1’000’000

Reserve deposit ratio =0.10

Bank deposits = 10’000’000

Page 110: Achievement Standard 3.4

Money Supply with both currency and Deposits

• Assumed money is held in the form of deposits• Citizen decide to hold 500’000 in the form of currency and to deposit the rest

into banks • Banks keep reserves equal to 10% of deposits

• Money supply= sum of currency in the hands of the public and the bank deposits.

• Currency =500’000• Remaining 500’000 available as bank reserves• 500’000/0.10=5’000’000

• Total money supply= $5’500’000

Money Supply=Currency held by public + Bank reservesDesired reserve-deposit ratio

Page 111: Achievement Standard 3.4

Questions Money Aggregates

Transaction account balances 65

NZD funding 20

Currency in circulation 10

Other on call funds 140

1. From the above calculate M1, M2 and M3.

2. Place the following in order in terms of liquidity-from the most liquid to the least liquid. Term deposit, Cash, Transaction account balance, On call account balance.

3. Calculate the change in the money supply in each of the following cases.

a) A new deposit of 20000 and a reserve ratio of 25%

b) A new deposit of $40000 and a reserve ratio of 10%

c) New deposits exceed withdrawals by $100000 and the reserve ratio is 20%

Page 112: Achievement Standard 3.4

Questions Fiscal Policy revision

Price Level

YfY

PL

Y

1. What is the name of the gap shown in the graph?

2. What characteristics are shown in this graph for you to recognise that it is the gap you identified above?

3. The government decides that it will implement fiscal policy to try and close this gap. What type of fiscal policy will the government use? Fully explain the effects this policy will have on the economy.

Page 113: Achievement Standard 3.4

Page 170

Page 114: Achievement Standard 3.4

An increase in Money Supply (Primary Expansion)

The reserves of the banking system increase and the money supply increases when Deposits from the public exceed withdrawals The govt repays its debt The RBNZ engages in Open Market Operations

purchasing of stock

The reserves of the banking system decrease and the money supply decreases whenOpposite of above occurs

Page 115: Achievement Standard 3.4

Secondary Expansion

When a primary expansion occurs banks are holding more reserves than prudence requires.

They are then able to extend lending which is a secondary expansion in credit.

This lending goes into transaction accounts and because these form a high proportion of M1 the money supply is increased.

Page 116: Achievement Standard 3.4

Demand for money

The demand for money has two parts

1. Transaction demand (For money to make purchases) . The more purchases that takes place the higher the transaction

demand for money (seen periods high eco activity)

2. Asset demand (Demand on assets used to be sold later or for precautionary reasons) Higher dependent on the interest rate. The higher the interest rate

the lower the asset demand for money

Page 117: Achievement Standard 3.4

Money demand and Money Supply

MD

MS

r

Quantity

Interest rate

Why do you think MS is a vertical line?

The RBNZ controls the supply of money and is fixed at any point in time. (Market forces have no effect)

Page 118: Achievement Standard 3.4

The NZ Financial System

Government Banks with

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)

The Public Banks with

Registered banks:

e.g. ANZ, BNZ. National Bank etc

Non-Bank deposit-taking institutions

e.g. saving institutions, finance companies

Page 119: Achievement Standard 3.4

Maintaining Price Stability • The Reserve Bank ensures that money retains its buying

power. – It is responsible for maintaining price stability i.e. guarding

against inflation or deflation in order to protect the value of people’s incomes and savings.

Inflation = an increase in the general level of prices over a period of time.

Inflation = Change CPI x 100

Original CPI

e.g. Year CPI

2006 985

2007 1010

Inflation = 1010 – 985 x 1000

985

= 2.54%

Page 120: Achievement Standard 3.4

Inflation, Disinflation and Deflation• Inflation = increase in general price level

• Disinflation = rate of inflation is decreasing

• Deflation = decrease in average price level

+ve

-ve

% c

hang

e in

pric

e le

vel

A

B

C

D

Years

Text Book Activity C3.6

Page 325 10mins

Page 121: Achievement Standard 3.4

Why do we need stable prices?• Key reason is to keep export prices competitive. • Rising prices make NZ exports more expensive compared

with competing products

Low inflation also means Businesses can plan for the future People are encouraged to save rather than borrow Firms more likely to invest in new production Wages and prices are consistent

Page 122: Achievement Standard 3.4

Policy Targets Agreement

• The Reserve Bank’s responsibilities are set out in the Policy Targets Agreement: a contract between the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the RBNZ

Policy Targets Agreement: required to keep inflation between 1% and 3% in the medium term.

Page 123: Achievement Standard 3.4

Monetary Policy • Monetary Policy – Changing interest rates or the

money supply to influence the level of economic activity.

Page 124: Achievement Standard 3.4

Monetary Policy

• Official Cash Rate (OCR) – Interest rate set by the Reserve bank to implement monetary policy, so as to maintain price stability

The Reserve Bank in NZ now directly influences interest rates using the OCR.

By setting the OCR the RBNZ is able to substantially influence short term interest rates.

Short term interest rates have a big impact on

the overall level of economic activity in the

country and therefore on inflation.

Page 125: Achievement Standard 3.4

Influence on Interest rates by OCR

• The reserve bank pays financial institutions 0.25% below the OCR for money deposited in the Reserve Bank settlement accounts

• The reserve bank charges interest at 0.25% above the OCR for overnight cash to banks.

• The Reserve Bank also sets no limit on the amount of cash it will take in or let out.

Page 126: Achievement Standard 3.4

OCR

• The Reserve Bank reviews the OCR eight times a year.

• Only in exceptional circumstances would the Reserve Bank make unscheduled adjustments to the OCR.

• The OCR is much more simpler and easier understood than earlier systems.

Page 127: Achievement Standard 3.4

Effects of the OCR

Reserve Bank increases OCR from 2.5% to 3%

Financial Institutions pay 3.25% on loans, up from 2.75%

Financial Institutions get 2.75% on settlement accounts up from 2.25%

Various Financial Institutions will then increase their own interest rates to consumers and producers.

Consumption rate falls as consumers will begin to save more.

Investment will fall as producers pay more interest on loans

Aggregate demand for goods and services in the economy falls

The Inflation Rate will fall

Page 128: Achievement Standard 3.4

Monetary Polices

• Loose Monetary Policy – Lowering the OCR to stimulate the economy

and encourage economic growth

• Tight Monetary Policy– Increasing the OCR to dampen economic

activity

Page 129: Achievement Standard 3.4

Open Market Operations (OMO) • The buying and selling of government securities (bonds) in

the open market in order to expand or contract the amount of money in the banking system.

Purchases by the government of government bonds owned by banks inject money into the banking system and stimulate growth

Sales of government bonds by the government withdraw money from the banking system and contract the economy.

Sell stock to reduce money supply and buy back stock to increase money supplyhttp://www.nzdmo.govt.nz/securities/govtbonds

Page 130: Achievement Standard 3.4

Moral Suasion

• The Reserve Bank lets the market know about what its expectations are for the future.

• This then lets markets predict as to what the RBNZ might do in the future and thus people will change behaviours to favour themselves in the future.

• The RBNZ Monetary Policy Statements are one example of how the RBNZ tells the financial markets (banks etc) about its actions.

Page 131: Achievement Standard 3.4

Building a Cycle way the Length of NZ to Beat the Recession (2009 external examination)

A national cycle way funded by Central Government at an estimated costs of $50 million and built throughout the country, would have a multiplied impact on local economies. For example, the 152km Central Otago Rail Trail attracted 12000 riders last year and a survey of local businesses estimated that 90 full-time staff and 240 part-time staff are currently employed in jobs as a result of the Rail Trail.

(a) Predict the effects of the government spending $50million to build a national cycle way by ticking the appropriate box in each of the columns in Table 2 below

Aggregate Demand

Aggregate Supply

Price Level Real GDP

b) What type of policy that this government spending on a national cycle way would best represent?

Increase Increase

Decrease

Increase Increase

No Change No Change

Expansionary Fiscal Policy

c) Based on your predictions in the table above explain the initial impact the government spending would have on the level of unemployment

Page 132: Achievement Standard 3.4

As government spending increases on a cycle way, workers will be demanded to build the cycle way and thus more and more people will be employed. There will also be flow on jobs being created from the building of the cycle way, as there is likely to be an increased demand for local businesses products. Therefore with the creation of jobs due to the development of a cycle way the initial level of unemployment in the new Zealand economy will decrease.

c) Based on your predictions in the table above explain the initial impact the government spending would have on the level of unemployment

Page 133: Achievement Standard 3.4

The Money Market and Interest Rates The RBNZ influences interest rates through OCR Interest rates have a large impact on economic activity and inflationary pressure The demand for money is created by those wanting to make transactions or to

hold it as an asset

Quantity of Money

Interest

rate

MD1

MS1

An increase in GDP or eco activity

-Results from an increase in any component of AD

-Results in increased production and sales therefore transactions

-Increase in transactions means an increase in demand for money

-Increase in interest rates

r1

MD2

r2

Page 134: Achievement Standard 3.4

Interest Rate Changes An increase in the interest rate will

Decrease household consumption spending as consumer confidence falls and they now prefer to save rather than spend.

Household income may also fall as eco activity slows

A decrease in business investment spending as business confidence falls. Sales and revenue may also fall as eco activity

slows

An increase in the exchange rate which will reduce net exports. Export volumes and receipts decrease while

import volumes and payment may increase.

All of these changes will cause the AD to fall and thus inflation will fall.

Page 135: Achievement Standard 3.4

The Money Market and the OCR

Quantity of Money

Interest rate

MD

MS1

r1

An increase in the OCR

( Tight Monetary Policy)

r2

Interest rates rise from r1 to r2

ms2

AD

As I and C falland net exports fall. Causing a decrease in AD

ASAS moves out as the appreciated exchange rate causes a fall in imported materials costs

Money supply decreased, Price level falls inflationary pressure is reduced.

YY’

PL

PL’

Page 136: Achievement Standard 3.4

A rise in the OCR

Increased retail interest rates

Credit more expensive

Existing borrowers face increased costs

Lower demand for credit

Increased demand for the NZD

Adverse effects on net exports

Appreciation of the exchange rate

Downward pressure on AD curve

Less new

Investment

spending

Less new

Borrowing for

consumption

Holders of existing mortgages have less disposable income leading to lower consumption spending of more elastic G&S

Downward pressure on the AD curve

Higher costs on existing borrowing for investment

Increased costs of production

AS moves to the left

Reduction in Real GDP

Rising unemployment

Page 137: Achievement Standard 3.4

A rise in the OCR

Increased retail interest rates

Credit more expensive

Existing borrowers face increased costs

Lower demand for credit

Increased demand for the NZD

Adverse effects on net exports

Appreciation of the exchange rate

Downward pressure on AD curve

Less new

Investment

spending

Less new

Borrowing for

consumption

Holders of existing mortgages have less disposable income leading to lower consumption spending of more elastic G&S

Downward pressure on the AD curve

Higher costs on existing borrowing for investment

Increased costs of production

AS moves to the left

Reduction in Real GDP

Rising unemployment

Page 138: Achievement Standard 3.4

Monetary Policy and the Inflationary Gap

YeYf

PL

Inflationary Gap

Economic activity is too high and unsustainable.

There is pressure on price levels.

Tight Monetary Policy will be used.

Increase OCR

Interest rates increase

Reduces lending and increases saving

I and C decrease

AD falls

Inflation is reduced

Page 139: Achievement Standard 3.4

Monetary Policy and the Deflationary Gap

Real Income, Output Employment

Pric

e Le

vel

AD

AS

PLe

Ye Yf

There is under-utilsed productive capacity in the economy and therefore unemployment

Loose Monetary Policy will be used

OCR reduced

Reduces interest rates

Reduces saving and increases lending

Increase in C and I

AD increases

Inflation increases

Ad’

Pe’

Page 140: Achievement Standard 3.4

Official Cash Rate (OCR) decisions and current rate

Change in OCR OCR rate 29 July 2010 +0.25 3.00 10 June 2010 +0.25 2.75 29 April 2010 No change 2.50 11 March 2010 No change 2.50 28 January 2010 No change 2.50 10 December 2009 No change 2.50 29 October 2009 No change 2.50 10 September 2009 No change 2.50 30 July 2009 No change 2.50 11 June 2009 No change 2.50 30 April 2009 -0.50 2.50 12 March 2009 -0.50 3.00 29 January 2009 -1.50 3.50

Page 141: Achievement Standard 3.4

List of Registered Banks in NZ as at 4 May 2010 Name of registered bank Registration Date Name of credit rating agency and rating

ANZ National Bank Limited1 April 1987 AA AA-Aa2 ASB Bank Limited 11 May 1989 AA -Aa2 Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (B)5 January 2009 AA AA-Aa1 Bank of Baroda (New Zealand) Limited1 September 2009 -BBB— Bank of New Zealand1 April 1987 AA-Aa2 Citibank N A (B)22 July 1987 A+A+A1 Commonwealth Bank of Australia (B)23 June 2000 AAAAAa1 Deutsche Bank A G (B)8 November 1996 A+AA-Aa3 JPMorgan Chase Bank NA (B)1 October 2007 AA-AA-Aa1 Kiwibank Limited29 November 2001 AA--- Kookmin Bank (B)14 July 1997 A-A1 Rabobank Nederland (B)1 April 1996 AAAAA+Aaa Rabobank New Zealand Limited 7 July 1999 AAA— Southland Building Society7 October 2008 -BBB- The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (B)1 March 2004 A+AAa2 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (B)22 July 1987 AAAAAa1 TSB Bank Limited 8 June 1989 BBB+-- Westpac Banking Corporation (B)1 April 1987 AAAAAa 1Westpac New Zealand Limited31 October 2006 AAAAAa2

Page 142: Achievement Standard 3.4

Exercises page 170

Questions 1-4

Page 143: Achievement Standard 3.4

What type of gap would you expect the economy to be in by looking at the above picture?

What tools are there available for the government to try and close this gap?.

Page 144: Achievement Standard 3.4

Economic Problem Solving Sheets

Page 145: Achievement Standard 3.4

Balance of Payments

Where New Zealand's international transactions are summarised

International transactions include the value of Inflows and outflows of moneyFinancial assets and liabilities

Page 146: Achievement Standard 3.4

Balance of Payments

Financial AccountCapital Account

Current Account

Page 147: Achievement Standard 3.4

Current Account

Balance on goods

Balance On services Balance

on income

Balance on current ‘transfers

Value of exported goods minus value imported goods

Usually positive

Includes all tangible items that can be seen, moved or stored

Value exported services minus value of imported services

e.g. Transport, insurance, education etc.

Tourists from overseas who spend money in NZ contribute to our exports of services

Value of investment income received from investments overseas minus investment income paid to foreign investors

e.g. Interest on savings loans and dividends on shares

Value of transfers received by NZlanders minus value of transfers paid to others overseas.

e.g. Money transfers from Govt aid, gifts etc

Page 148: Achievement Standard 3.4

FORMULA TO CALCULATE CURRENT ACCOUNTBALANCE

BoG=Xg-Mg BoS= Xs-Ms BoII= net investment income BoCT= net transfers CAB=BoG + BoS + BoII + BoCT

Page 149: Achievement Standard 3.4

Current account balance 1999-2006

Positive balances indicate a surplus, negative balances are in deficit

-The goods balance has gone from a surplus of $2.1 billion in 2001 to a deficit of $4.2 billion in 2006

-- Mainly driven from rising imports

-- Service balance went from deficit to small surplus

-- Investment income deficit increased to over 11billion in 2006

-- result of increasing income earned by foreign investors (high foreign investment)

Page 150: Achievement Standard 3.4

Item Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Xg 32 33 32 35 36

Mg 28 29 33 36 38

Xs 18 20 25 29 30

Ms 23 24 24 26 26

Investment income

-3 -4 -7 -8 -10

Net transfers 2 1.5 2 2.5 1

1. Calculate the current account balances for Ecotania

2. Describe how these events will affect the CA balance

(a) Air NZ buys another plane from the US

(b) There is an economic downturn in NZ’s main export markets

(c) Profits of foreign-owned companies in NZ increase

(d) NZlanders donate large sums to help with disaster relief overseas

Ecotonia’s current account statistics, years 1 to 5

Page 151: Achievement Standard 3.4

Capital Account

Balance of Transfers made by immigrants

e.g. Aid moneyRelatively small impact on the

Overall BOP

Think of capital in an accounting sense of transfers of money

Page 152: Achievement Standard 3.4

Financial Account

Capital InflowsAssets brought in NZ by

overseas investors (Foreign investment)

-NZ borrowing overseas

Capital OutflowsAssets brought overseas

by NZ investors ( NZ Investment Abroad)

-Debt repayment

Capital Inflows- Capital Outflows

If NZ sells more assets to foreigners than it buys from foreigners, there will then be a financial account surplus.

Page 153: Achievement Standard 3.4

Is set out using these categories Direct investment

Investments that make up over 10% of the equity in a company

Portfolio investment Includes investments that make up under 10% of the equity

in a company Other capital investment

All other investment flows (including those from govt) Reserve assets

Financial Account

Page 154: Achievement Standard 3.4

Current Account Balance Is consistently in deficit.

NZ has experienced current account deficits since the 1970s. Due to too much domestic demand, a lack of domestic savings and

an over-valued exchange rate

This deficit has to be paid for in some way, from overseas borrowing, foreign investment or assets sales

Which account do all these components appear in?

Financial Account Balance Is consistently in surplus – Generally considered undesirable as

these are liabilities that have to be paid in the future.

Thus the current account balance will be the opposite of the financial account balance.

Page 155: Achievement Standard 3.4

Balance of Payments

2005 2006 2007 2008(1) 2009(1)

Current Account

   Export receipts 31,114 31,581 35,636 38,720 44,259

   Import receipts 33,343 35,685 38,464 40,515 45,594

   Merchandise BALANCE (2,228) (4,104) (2,828) (1,796) (1,337)

   Services BALANCE 1,200 522 433 184 (1,119)

   Investment income BALANCE (9,384) (11,065) (11,906) (13,343) (13,035)

   Transfers BALANCE 293 144 774 828 919

Current account BALANCE (10,120) (14,504) (13,527) (14,128) (14,568)

    Deficit as % OF GDP (6.7) (9.0) (8.0) (7.8) (7.9)

Financial Account (net)

   Foreign investment in NZ  13,870 10,421 23,370 26,795 (8,853)

   NZ investment abroad 3,222 (3,790) 11,120 12,500 (16,122)

   Reserves (914) 4,850 6,744 5,763 (9,947)

   Financial account BALANCE 10,648 14,211 12,250 14,295 7,269

Capital Account

   BALANCE OF Capital Account 108 (326) (457) (773) (579

New Zealand’s Balance of Payments 2005-2009 dollars amounts in millions) Year ended 31 March

Page 156: Achievement Standard 3.4

Work book page 177 Question 1-4

Page 157: Achievement Standard 3.4

Trade Accounts

Statistics NZ has upgraded the way it calculates and presents trade statistics to bring NZ statistics into line with IMF guidelines.

NZ stats can be meaningfully compared with those of other countries.

Page 158: Achievement Standard 3.4

The Foreign Exchange Market

Foreign currency is required for international trade. e.g. Before NZ importers can buy a shipment of Japanese cars, they

must first buy Japanese yen.

Forces of demand and supply will interact to establish the equilibrium quantity and price. Those who create supply in one foreign exchange market create demand in another. e.g. a NZlander travelling to Australia supplies $NZ to the foreign

exchange market and demands $AU.

The price is referred to as the exchange rate

The exchange rate is referred to as how much of another currency $1 NZ buys

Page 159: Achievement Standard 3.4

Foreign Exchange Market

Demand for $NZ foreign exchange is mainly created by

Exporters Foreign tourists Foreign investors

Supply of $NZ foreign exchange is mainly created by Importers NZ tourist travelling aboard NZ investors investing internationally.

Page 160: Achievement Standard 3.4

Exchange rates

Supply ($NZ)

Demand ($NZ)

Q1

0.72 USD or 62.41JPY or 0.77 AUD

Price of each NZD in terms of overseas currency

Quantity of

NZ dollars

If people from overseas wish to buy our exports or deposit money in our banks, they must first buy our dollars to do this.

Page 161: Achievement Standard 3.4

The price of the Australian dollar September 2010

Q1

Demand

(AUS $)

Supply

(AUS $)

Price in NZD

Quantity of Australian dollars

$1.29

The price of one Australian dollar is $1.29 NZ.

What would the price of one NZ dollar cost in Australian currency?

1AUS = 1.29 NZ

1.29 = 1.29

0.77AUS= 1NZD

If a NZ importer wished to import a shipment worth $100’000 AUS what would it cost them in NZD?

100000X 1.29

= $129’000 NZ

Page 162: Achievement Standard 3.4

Supply and Demand of NZD

The Supply curve of NZD is influenced by Demand for imports (price of imports, incomes etc) Investment by NZlanders overseas Tourism by NZlandes overseas Repayment of overseas debts Investment earnings by foreign owned businesses in

NZ Business and consumer confidence

Page 163: Achievement Standard 3.4

Supply and Demand of NZD

Demand of NZD is influenced byDemand for NZ exports (price of exports,

incomes etc)Foreign investment in NZ

Influenced by OCR and interest ratesOverseas borrowing Overseas earning of NZ owned assetsOverseas confidence in NZ ecnomy

Page 164: Achievement Standard 3.4

Trade Weighted Index (TWI) Measures the overall changes in the

exchange rate, of our major trading partners.

It shows if the NZ $ has appreciated or depreciated overall against our trading partners. Our dollar could appreciate against some but depreciate against others.

Appreciation- when the value of $NZ INCREASES against another currency Could be due to an increase in demand or a reduction in the supply caused by things like high interest rates, increased demand for NZ exports, low inflation.

Depreciation- when value of $NZ DECREASES against another currency. Could be due to a decrease in demand or an increase in supply. Caused by things like, low interest rates, high inflation.

Page 165: Achievement Standard 3.4

Impacts on Imports and Exports Appreciation

This impacts on exports by making them more expensive (to foreigners) causing exports to reduce

This impacts on imports by making them relatively more cheaper, as the $NZ now buys more, imports increase

Negative effect on BOP (X-M) as BOP surplus’s are reduced but BOP deficits will increase.

Deprecation This impacts on exports by making them cheaper in other

currencies- exports will increase This impacts on imports by making them more expensive thus

imports will decrease. Positive effect on BOP (X-M)

Page 166: Achievement Standard 3.4

What would happen if tourist numbers to NZ decreased?

Q $NZ

S $NZSupply ($NZ)

Demand ($NZ)

Q

P

1. Show the effects on the graph. Will the exchange rate appreciate or depreciate?

Explain why falling tourist numbers cause this effect?

What effect will this have on the

Balance of goods

Current Account

Aggregate demand

Page 167: Achievement Standard 3.4

Other Factors effecting Imports and Exports Demand for exports will depend on

Price of the product Income levels of the countries we export to Tastes and preferences for our product The price of substitutes and compliments Access to foreign markets (Trade barriers prevent

access) Trade agreements free up access.

Demand for imports will depend on The price Income levels in NZ The price of substitutes and compliments.

Page 168: Achievement Standard 3.4

Terms of Trade

Terms of = Total Exports Price Index x 1000 Trade Total Imports Price Index

Is an index of export and import prices

• Show what a given amount of exports can purchase in the way of imports

•The higher the index the more competitive our exports are

•If the terms of trade rise (favourable increase) a given amount of exports can now purchase a greater amount of imports than before.

Page 169: Achievement Standard 3.4

Average for USA UK Aust. Japan Euro TWI TWI

period ended Base June Monthly

  Mid-rates all quoted to NZ$1 1979 = 100 % change

Aug 2009 0.6754 0.4082 0.8089 64.14 0.4736 62.9 3.7

Sep 2009 0.7024 0.4304 0.8166 64.29 0.4827 64.3 2.3

Oct 2009 0.7383 0.4566 0.8157 66.58 0.4986 66.5 3.4

Nov 2009 0.7309 0.4400 0.7943 65.26 0.4901 65.2 -1.9

Dec 2009 0.7162 0.4407 0.7929 64.15 0.4902 64.7 -0.9

Jan 2010 0.7277 0.4500 0.7959 66.38 0.5092 66.1 2.3

Feb 2010 0.6974 0.4455 0.7868 62.93 0.5094 64.6 -2.3

Mar 2010 0.7032 0.4670 0.7712 63.66 0.5178 65.1 0.8

Apr 2010 0.7124 0.4644 0.7685 66.52 0.5304 66.1 1.6

May 2010 0.6992 0.4761 0.8019 64.36 0.5557 67.0 1.3

Jun 2010 0.6928 0.4696 0.8105 62.96 0.5665 67.1 0.1

Jul 2010 0.7111 0.4657 0.8134 62.31 0.5572 67.2 0.2

Aug 2010 0.7154 0.4566 0.7944 61.17 0.5541 66.6 -0.9

Page 170: Achievement Standard 3.4

The Fluctuating value of NZD using TWI Base June 1979 = 100

60.061.062.063.064.065.066.067.068.0

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Year

Ind

ex