achieving breakthrough status of the international lunar decade international astronautical...
TRANSCRIPT
ACHIEVING BREAKTHROUGH
STATUS OF THE INTERNATIONAL LUNAR DECADE
INTERNATIONAL ASTRONAUTICAL FEDERATION CONGRESS
12-16 OCTOBER 2015
TOPICS• Vision
• What is ILD
• Why a decade. Why start in 2017?
• Necessity of international collaboration
• 2030 and beyond
• Evolution of an idea and status
• Planetary Society proposal
• Role of ILEWG
• Engaging international collaboration
• Funding and alternative scenarios
• No ILD –significant International collaboration cannot be marshalled
• ILD without COPUOS / UN endorsement – essentially initiative of ILEWEG and ISECG
• ILD with UN endorsement but without significant financing and involvement by US and other major space agencies
• ILD funded comparable to ISS - $150 billion in 2010 US dollars
• ILD funded to achieve breakthrough to self-sustaining space economy beyond Earth orbit.
ILD VISION
Achieve breakthrough to sustainable operations in space.
The capacity to create wealth in space is a necessary precondition for sustainable human presence in space.
LUNAR BREAKTHROUGH
Before• No property rights on Moon
• Absence of agreement on claims to ownership or governance of commerce
• Resources not mapped
• Lack of Technologies for ISRU
• Lack of infrastructure for communications, transport, logistics, energy
• Absence of financing instruments for lunar development
After• Mining and other property rights agreed to
• Governance mechanism in place to manage commerce and related activities on the Moon
• Resources mapped and process developed to assign and regulate exploitation rights
• Infrastructure under development to meet long term needs to 2050 and beyond
• Growing number and kinds of financing instruments to address diverse lunar development needs
WHAT MARKS THE BREAKTHROUGH?
• Good business environment – predictable government policy, mining rights and other forms of property rights necessary to conduct business
• Manageable level of risk• Investments in lunar projects can generate predictable cashflow• Returns on investment attract increasing investments
We will know the breakthrough has taken place when • Space projects can be funded from revenue generated in space• ROI from space projects will be comparable or better than
terrestrial projects• Missions to Mars carrying large 100+ teams can be economically
justified
ILD is a process to achieve the breakthrough to wealth creation beyond Earth orbit.
• The key is industrial development of the Moon• Smart money would not be chasing asteroids if business was
easier on the Moon• ILD addresses barriers to lunar development
ILD IS A SYSTEMATIC PROGRAM TO OVERCOME BARRIERS TO WEALTH CREATION IN SPACE
BARRIER RESPONSE
No mining or property rights on Moon Develop property rightsLunar resource base largely unknown Explore, identify and map resourcesNo infrastructure to support lunar operations
Develop infrastructure
Lack of technologies to process lunar resources
Develop required technologies
Lack of space manufacturing capacity Develop required manufacturing capacity
Uncertain financing for lunar exploration & development
Develop financing mechanisms
WHEN?
The faster the better.Because the result is lower cost and risk for Mars and all other activities beyond LEO.
BY WHEN?
There is no known insurmountable barrier to achieving breakthrough in a decade
Every barrier to lunar development can be overcome.
Needed:
an agreed to plan to achieve breakthrough and
commitment by participating states to implement the plan
ILD: A dynamic framework for international collaboration to achieve breakthrough
Concurrent development of policies, technologies, infrastructures, financing methods and public support required for the emergence of a sustainable space economy beyond Earth orbit.
WHAT ILD IS NOT
ILD is not central planning for global space development.
ILD elements can largely be initiated and managed through existing organizations. ISECG, UNCOPUOS, COSPAR, G20 process, NASA and other national space agencies are effective. ILD is about coordination and working together to achieve more with available resources
ILD is not a scheme to expand government spending on space.
ILD is intended to engage private business through public – private partnerships and where possible private investment
ILD ELEMENTS ELEMENT PROCESS
Develop international agreement on property rights and governance of commercial activity on the Moon and in cislunar space
No agreed to process. UN COPUOS??
Identify and map location, quality and extent of lunar resources
Underway with some coordination via ILEWG
Develop enabling technologies to process lunar resources, energy systems, space manufacturing
Preliminary, largely hypothetical research. Need process to define technical requirements, call for development
Develop infrastructure to support lunar operations. Start with ISS as part of the plan.
Need long range plan that identifies infrastructure requirements in cislunar space, lunar surface
Human presence requirements Shelter, food, atmosphere, water, low gravity effects, radiation. Use ISS as a testbed.
Financing for lunar development G20, sovereign wealth funds, private-public partnerships, venture capital, agency budgets
WHY A DECADE?
• Breakthrough can be achieved in a decade – by 2030
• A decade is more than the sum of ten years. A decade is a span of time in which large scale projects can be brought to fruition. Activities in space are inherently long term.
• A decade is longer than the 2 terms of an American president
• Technologies advance very rapidly. Milestones beyond a decade, even in space, become iffy.
• But planning should not stop at a decade. What comes after ILD??
WHY NOW? WHY START IN 2017?
• 2017 marks 60 years since IGY and the dawn of the space age.• More importantly – we, humankind, now have the technical, financial and
organizational capacity to make the breakthrough to permanent human presence in space.
China’s GDP already exceeds US GDP during the construction of ISS, India is approaching US GDP of the 1990-2010 period. The EU exceeds US GDP. Other nations are advancing rapidly. Global GDP in 2015 is nearly $80 trillion. Achieving breakthrough is affordable.
• Collaboration in space during the Cold War left a positive legacy.
• Building large-scale collaboration in space now may have a disproportionate unifying impact countering powerful forces disrupting world order.
Global crises can destroy the capacity for joint action.
If we don’t achieve breakthrough now, we may never do it…
IMPACT OF ILD
Agreement to proceed with ILD by US, EU, China, India, Japan, Russia, others will signal a commitment to sustainable human presence in space.
• Immediate bump in market cap of space businesses• Surge in business formation of space businesses• Inflow of investment into space related venture funds
WHAT WILL BREAKTHROUGH COST?
$150 billion over a decade? $1.5 trillion? More?
The ISS has cost $150 billion – much of it from the US.
Now much more bang for the buck than in 1990s.
Future –• 10 fold reduction of launch costs
• more than 10 fold improvement in performance and capabilities
• Savings from collaboration and coordination with pooled resources
COST OF ILD
• What missions, projects and tasks must be in the shortest path to achieve breakthrough to a sustainable space economy?
• Cost out the steps• Assess financing options• Reiterate until a financeable solutions becomes apparent
NECESSITY OF INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION
• Policy issues can only be resolved in an international context• Level of knowledge required beyond capacity of any country• Level of investment required calls for public-private partnership
with international partners
HISTORY
• The Planetary Society first proposed an International Lunar Decade in 2006 endorsed by COSPAR, ILEWG, IAF, and the Secure World Foundation.
• Friedman February, 2007 presentation to COPUOS sought UN endorsement• Session attendees showed enthusiasm but no member state championed
ILD
• All missions and collaboration anticipated in ILD planning in 2006 completed
COPUOS• UN Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space is the UN body concerned
about space policy.
• COPUOS endorsement is necessary for UN sponsorship of ILD.
• David Dunlap of NSS is scheduled to make case for ILD to COPUOS, February 2016.
• If COPUOS endorses ILD in 2016, then UN General Assembly endorsement will become possible• Initiatives can only be proposed by member states not NGOs
• Decision by unanimous consent
• Plan – seek several member states to sponsor ILD proposal
ISECG
International Space Exploration Coordinating Group created in 2006 by 14 space agencies.
a voluntary, non-binding international coordination 11 mechanism through which individual agencies may exchange information regarding 12 interests, objectives, and plans in space exploration with the goal of strengthening both 13 individual exploration programs as well as the collective effort.
Anticipated role in ILD
• General coordination of missions
• Planning of shared infrastructure in cislunar space / lunar surface
• Guidance regarding technology requirements
ENGAGING INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION
ISS • Engaged NASA, Roscosmos, ESA,
JAX, Canada to build the largest technological collaboration thus far
• Cost - $150 billion, mainly US
ILD• Engage all states with interest
and capabilities to make a contribution. G20? COPUOS?
• Build on ISS and all previous collaborations
• Cost shared by all participants
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
• No ILD –significant International collaboration cannot be marshalled
• ILD without COPUOS / UN endorsement – essentially initiative of ILEWEG and ISECG
• ILD with UN endorsement but without significant financing and involvement by US and or other major space agencies
• ILD funded comparable to ISS - $150 billion in 2010 US dollars
• «Moonrush» ILD funded to achieve breakthrough to self-sustaining space economy beyond Earth orbit.
ILD2 FUNDED COMPARABLE TO ISS
• $150 billion (2010 USD) • Include all G20 members plus major emerging economies such as
Nigeria• Create opportunities for all other countries - Lunar Cubes, other
projects for small countries, small business and universities• Address infrastructure in cislunar space• Lay the foundations for industrial development post 2030
POTENTIAL RESULTSISS integrated with lunar research and development
Policies developed that encourage private investment beyond Earth orbit, primarily Moon and cislunar space.• Property rights• Dispute resolution mechanisms• System for establishing mining claimsKey enabling technologies
Infrastructure to lower cost, increase reliability, reduced risks
The 21st Century unfolds as the century of space…
CAN WE AFFORD IT?
• The global economy will be a multiple of the US economy when $150 billion was marshalled to build ISS.
• Private investment will comprise an increasing portion – if the policy issues can be resolved.
RESOLUTION OF POLICY ISSUES
Three approaches:
• Moon Treaty – offers a defined, international process to develop an «international regime» including property rights for industrial development of the Moon.
• Private initiative - Establish law and practices through customary law. Begin with processing asteroids, establish business practices, as these get accepted over time they get the status of customary law.
• COMSAT type of entity chartered by US Congress – Lunar Development Corp that engages international partners much as COMSAT led to INTELSAT
CONCLUSIONS• The ILD provides a framework for concurrently addressing enabling technologies,
infrastructures, policies, financing and overall coordination for breakthrough to sustainable operations in space.
• No single community or entity can resolve the range of issues that must be addressed. Some issues could be addressed by the following:
• ISECG – key infrastructure linking low Earth orbit, cislunar space, lunar operations -- overall roadmap
• ILEWG – overall coordination of lunar research operations
• COPUOS / UNOOSA – space policy, means to engage smaller space partners / support for national level space celebrations, linkage with space advocacy groupss
• COSPAR, other research fora – reporting of research results, interacting with global scientific community
• Financing issues – G20? Lunar Development Corporation? Lunar Development Fund?
