act biodiversity adaptation pathways project - … · act biodiversity adaptation pathways project...
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Acknowledgements
This report was developed by the ACT Government, drawing on the draft ACT Biodiversity Adaptation Pathways
Project Workshop Report received from Mark Siebentritt, Seed Consulting, and includes additional analysis
undertaken by NRM Planning for the ACT Government Environment Division.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be
reliable and accurate. The authors accept no legal liability for the accuracy of field data, analytical results or
mapping data provided as part of this report or for any associated loss in productivity, land value or such like
through third part use of this data. The authors accept no legal liability for failure of the client to obtain any
necessary government or other agency permits or approvals with respect to management of the said land.
The material and opinions in this report may include the views or recommendations of third parties, which may
not necessarily reflect the views of the authors, or indicate the author’s recommendation regarding a particular
course of action. The authors do not provide advice of an investment or commercial valuation nature. The
authors do not accept any liability for investment decisions made on the basis of information provided in this
report.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Executive summary ................................................................................................ 4 1.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 4
2 Context .................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Policy context .............................................................................................................................. 5
3 Key concepts .......................................................................................................... 6 3.1 BAP Project overview .................................................................................................................. 6
3.1.1 Values- rules-knowledge framework ...................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Scenario planning in the BAP Project .................................................................................................... 7 3.1.3 AdaptNRM goals and actions for biodiversity adaptation....................................................................... 8 3.1.4 Identifying appropriate adaptation measures in the BAP Project ......................................................... 11 3.1.5 Adaptation pathways in the BAP Project ............................................................................................. 11
4 BAP project key findings ..................................................................................... 12 4.1 General findings ........................................................................................................................ 12 4.2 Grasslands ................................................................................................................................ 12
4.2.1 Values attributed to grasslands ........................................................................................................... 12 4.2.2 Grassland adaptation options .............................................................................................................. 12 4.2.3 Grassland adaptation pathways .......................................................................................................... 12 4.2.4 Priorities for climate ready grasslands ................................................................................................. 13
4.3 Woodlands ................................................................................................................................ 17 4.3.1 Values attributed to woodlands ............................................................................................................ 17 4.3.2 Woodland adaptation options .............................................................................................................. 17 4.3.3 Woodland adaptation pathways ........................................................................................................... 17 4.3.4 Priorities for climate ready woodlands ................................................................................................. 17
4.4 River corridors and wetlands ..................................................................................................... 21 4.4.1 Values attributed to river corridors and wetlands ................................................................................. 21 4.4.2 River corridors and wetland adaptation options ................................................................................... 21 4.4.3 River corridors and wetland adaptation pathways ............................................................................... 21 4.4.4 Priorities for climate ready river corridors and wetlands ...................................................................... 21
4.5 Knowledge management .......................................................................................................... 25 4.5.1 Data, information and knowledge ........................................................................................................ 25 4.5.2 Technological innovation and governance arrangements.................................................................... 25 4.5.3 Potential actions in support of knowledge management ...................................................................... 25
4.6 Potential barriers/challenges affecting climate adaptation ........................................................ 26 4.6.1 Values- rules- knowledge barriers and challenges .............................................................................. 26 4.6.2 Values .................................................................................................................................................. 26 4.6.3 Rules ................................................................................................................................................... 26 4.6.4 Knowledge ........................................................................................................................................... 26 4.6.5 Knowledge management ..................................................................................................................... 27
5 Next steps ............................................................................................................. 28 5.1 Climate appropriate biodiversity adaptation .............................................................................. 28 5.2 Changing values underpinning biodiversity conservation ......................................................... 28 5.3 Biodiversity conservation into the future ................................................................................... 28 5.4 Priority work to support climate adaptation ............................................................................... 30
5.4.1 Climate ready objectives ...................................................................................................................... 30 5.4.2 Climate refugia .................................................................................................................................... 30 5.4.3 Monitoring for biodiversity climate adaptation ...................................................................................... 31 5.4.4 Managing data and information to improve decision-making and collaboration ................................... 31
6 References ............................................................................................................ 32
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1 Executive summary
1.1 Overview
The Biodiversity Adaptation Pathways Project (BAP Project) provided an opportunity to
engage in a conversation around managing now for an uncertain future. It engaged around
60 participants through two consecutive workshops (with most attending both workshops) to
consider climate adaptation options for three ecosystems – grasslands, woodlands, and river
corridors and wetlands.
The BAP project introduced participants to a number of climate adaptation tools and
frameworks, such as
values-rules–knowledge framework
scenario planning
AdaptNRM strategic goals and actions for biodiversity adaptation
UK Climate Impacts Programme identifying adaptation options guide (no-regrets, low regrets, win-win and flexible options) and
adaptation pathways.
Using these tools, BAP workshop participants:
Identified a range of reasons why nature is currently valued by society, including for biodiversity, ecosystem services, aesthetics, recreational opportunity, and a sense of belonging (while recognising that these values may change over time)
discussed possible management options and generated a list of options to support biodiversity adaptation for the three ecosystems
assessed whether listed options were business as usual, novel and/or preferred for each of the climate scenarios and
considered timeframes for implementation of preferred management options and plotted these options as adaptation pathways for each ecosystem.
In addition, the BAP Project gave participants the opportunity to consider the critical role of
knowledge management in supporting evidence-based decision making and regional
collaboration by ensuring timely access to the best available information. This process
enabled BAP Project participants to propose priority actions to strengthen knowledge
management in the ACT and Region.
Following the BAP Project, consideration was given to future challenges and confronting
questions that remain unanswered, such as:
for what values and where should the ACT and Region manage biodiversity in the future? and
how do we identify thresholds and triggers to know when to change course?
In responding to these questions, the following four areas of priority work were identified:
strengthening climate ready objectives of policies, strategies and plans in order to support the implementation of adaptive management principles
identifying climate refugia for key species
monitoring for biodiversity climate adaptation and
managing data and information to strengthen decision-making and collaboration.
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2 Context
2.1 Background
This document represents a synthesis of the findings of the ACT Biodiversity Adaptation
Pathways Project (BAP Project) (2015-16), and follow up analysis on climate adaptation
options for biodiversity conservation and management in the ACT and Region.
The BAP Project considered the implications of future climate scenarios, and other drivers of
long term change, on grasslands, woodlands, river corridors and wetlands. It also explored
opportunities and challenges around knowledge management as a cross-cutting theme.
The BAP workshops were organised by ACT NRM, which is the ACT’s natural resource
management regional body under the Australian Government’s national regional delivery
model.
2.2 Policy context
In the ACT, the integration of climate change considerations in biodiversity and natural
resource management has been formally mainstreamed through the ACT’s legislation and
policies, notably:
ACT Nature Conservation Act 2014 which requires updates of conservation strategies and statutory action plans in the ACT to explicitly consider the implications of climate change
ACT Nature Conservation Strategy 2013-23 (NC Strategy) which highlights climate change as a challenge likely to considerably magnify the effects of existing pressures in coming decades. The NC Strategy also directly specifies the following climate adaptation outcome and target:
o Outcome 2 - Landscapes are more resilient, including to climate change.
o Target 4 - Impacts from threatening processes, and climate change refugia in the ACT, are better understood and appropriately managed.
ACT Climate Change Adaptation Strategy – Living with a warming climate which identifies the following commitments:
o Action 20 - Biodiversity conservation at a landscape scale a) Enhance resilience and adaptive capacity of our ecosystems b) Identify, protect and manage potential climate refugia across the region.
o Action 21 - Safeguard species c) Facilitate and undertake targeted interventions to safeguard species
under climate change
o Action 22 - Care for land and water resources a) Improve land managers’ knowledge and understanding of climate impacts
and adaptation actions b) Contribute towards landscape resilience under climate change through
coordinated pest animal and plant control and c) Monitoring of climate impacts on ecosystems in our bioregion.
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3 Key concepts
3.1 BAP Project overview
The BAP Project considered the implications of climate change for grasslands, woodlands,
and river and wetlands in the ACT and Region. It also recognised knowledge management
for its critical role in facilitating evidence based decision making and regional collaboration,
and considered it as a cross-cutting theme.
The BAP Project integrated a range of tools and frameworks notably:
i) Values-rules-knowledge (vrk) framework – to evaluate the plausibility of adaptation options within current and potential social, institutional and knowledge boundaries (refer 2.2.1)
ii) Scenario planning - to explore contrasting, plausible climate futures for the region (refer 2.2.2)
iii) AdaptNRM goals and actions for biodiversity adaptation - to help assess viable conservation and management options under the four scenarios (refer 2.2.3).
iv) Adaptation pathways - to investigate flexible and appropriate responses for adapting to future change under four plausible future scenarios (refer 2.2.4)
v) UK Climate Impacts Programme identifying adaptation options guide – to distinguish between options that are (i) no-regrets (i.e. options that deliver net socio-economic benefits irrespective of the extent of climate change); (ii) low regrets (i.e. low cost/high benefit), (iii) win-win (i.e. minimise climate risks or exploit opportunities, and have other social, environmental or economic benefits); and (iv) flexible (i.e. introducing adaptation measures incrementally as opposed to adopting large-scale adaptation) (refer 2.2.4).
The BAP Project was delivered through two participatory workshops attended by ACT and
Region representatives from government, not-for-profit organisations, research
organisations, conservation groups, community groups and volunteers.
While the BAP Project participant responses are not considered to be conclusive, they
provide an important contribution to strengthening the ACT’s approach to climate adaptation.
In addition, responses ranged from high-level broad suggestions, to on-ground specific
actions, and were, therefore, not always readily comparable.
3.1.1 Values- rules-knowledge framework
Delivering adaptation actions requires consideration of purpose and social, economic,
technological and environmental feasibility. Participants were introduced to the values-rules-
knowledge (vrk) framework (Gorddard et al. 2015) which highlights that climate adaptation
options that have values, rules and knowledge aligned are easy to implement. Where this
alignment does not occur, barriers to implementation are likely to exist, and will need to be
addressed before actions can be implemented. (refer Figure1).
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Figure 1. Values-rules-knowledge framework (Gorddard et al. 2015)
‘values’ capture behaviour change
barriers (e.g. institutional cultures,
conflicting values between interest
groups or generations, etc)
‘rules’ capture policy barriers (e.g.
jurisdictional constraints, conflicting
policy goals between government
agencies, etc)
‘knowledge’ captures research gaps
(e.g. uncertainties about the efficacy
of management interventions,
potential climate impacts and/or
species-level responses).
3.1.2 Scenario planning in the BAP Project
Scenario planning was used to illustrate plausible alternative climate futures that the ACT
and Region is likely to face, and to challenge current assumptions about how best to
manage biodiversity under these scenarios. In developing the scenarios for the BAP
workshops, other social and economic drivers of change were also included as these drivers
define the range of biodiversity climate adaptation options that would be considered socially
acceptable and economically feasible under any given scenario.
In Workshop 1, participants considered how four long-term drivers of change, namely
climate change (impact), economic growth and urbanisation, extent of resourcing, and extent
of collaboration (responses), combine as four plausible, contrasting future scenarios (Table
1a).
Table 1a. Workshop 1 scenario framework for developing future scenarios (2065)
Today
(2015)
High Climate
Impact, High
Response
High Climate
Impact, Low
Response
Moderate
Climate Impact,
Low Response
Moderate
Climate Impact,
Mixed Response
Un
ce
rtain
tie
s
Climate
Change#
Moderate High High Moderate Moderate
Growth and
Urbanisation Moderate High High Low Low
Resourcing Moderate High Low Low Low
Collaboration Moderate High Low Low High
# Refer Table 2 which describes the climate change profiles used in this table.
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In Workshop 2, the scenarios were simplified to more easily identify adaptation options
through the pathways process. Climate change was retained as a key driver. However,
growth (urbanisation), resourcing and collaboration were aggregated into ’social values
toward biodiversity’ (Table 1b). The rationale behind this aggregation was that these drivers
were identified as being indirect consequences of social values towards biodiversity.
Table 1b. Workshop 2 scenario framework for developing future scenarios (2065)
Today
(2015) Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D
Un
ce
rta
inti
es Climate
Change# Moderate High High Moderate Moderate
Social Values
Toward
Biodiversity
Moderate High* Low** Low** High*
# Refer Table 2 which describes the climate change profiles
* Social values ‘high’ implies that society values nature for its own sake
** Social values ‘low’ implies that society only values nature for the services it provides to people.
Table 2 describes the distinctions between moderate and high climate change impacts used in the BAP workshop scenarios.
3.1.3 AdaptNRM goals and actions for biodiversity adaptation
The AdaptNRM Helping Biodiversity Adapt guide (Prober et al. 2015) was used in the BAP Project to stimulate discussion on options for biodiversity adaptation.
AdaptNRM’s nationally recognised strategic goals and actions (refer Table 3), were used by
BAP workshop participants to categorise the management actions they identified. As
AdaptNRM’s focus was on on-ground actions predominantly, where participants identified
other actions, such as actions to build institutional capacity, these actions were classified as
“novel” for the purposes of the BAP Project exercise. These “novel” actions complement the
AdaptNRM actions, and relate to governance, strategic planning, prioritisation,
communications and/or engagement type issues, and institutional arrangements. BAP
workshop participant responses are documented in Section 4 (refer tables 5, 7 and 9 on
consolidated management options).
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Table 2. Projected impacts of climate change for the ACT and Region. Information sources are noted as footnotes at the base of the table
Impact of climate change – High
2030
Canberra climate resembles Adelaide, Bendigo and Bathurst today 4
Increasing temperatures (across all indices) 1,2
Summer daily highs up 1.7°C, plus 3 more days > 35°C 2
Reduction (>30%) in cold nights (below 2°C) per annum 2
Shifts in seasonal moisture availability 1,2
Drier springs (-18%); drier autumn (-12%) 2
Increase in severe fire weather during spring (~25%) and summer (~100%)
2
Longer fire seasons and shorter HR burn windows 3
Frequency of extreme drought triple 1st half of 20
th century (~3 droughts
/ 20 years) 1
2070
Canberra climate resembles Condobolin, Forbes and Jurien today 4
Increasing temperatures (across all indices) 1,2
Summer daily highs up 3°C, plus 6 more days > 35°C 2
Reduction (>50%) in cold nights (below 2°C) per annum 2
Shifts in seasonal moisture availability 1,2
Drier springs (-19%); drier autumn (-9%) 2
Increase in severe fire weather during spring (~80%) and summer (~90%)
2
Doubling of fire frequency and 20% increase in fire intensity 3
Frequency of extreme drought triple 1st half of 20
th century (~3 droughts
/ 20 years) 1
Impact of climate change – Moderate
2030
Canberra climate resembles Albany, Melbourne, Bendigo and Merimbula today
4
Increasing temperatures (across all indices) 1,2
Summer daily highs up 0.5°C, plus < 1 more day > 35°C 2
Reduction (~10%) in cold nights (below 2°C) per annum 2
Shifts in seasonal moisture availability 1,2
Drier springs (-4%); wetter autumn (+48%) 2
Reductions in severe fire weather in spring (~5%) and summer (~50%) 2
Frequency of extreme drought similar to 1st half of 20
th century (~1
drought / 20 years) 1
2070
Canberra climate resembles Perth, Toowoomba and Parkes today 4
Increasing temperatures (across all indices) 1,2
Summer daily highs up 1.8°C, plus 3 more days > 35°C 2
Reduction (>15%) in cold nights (below 2°C) per annum 2
Minor reduction in severe fire weather in spring (<5%) and summer (~5%)
2
Shifts in seasonal moisture availability 1,2
Drier springs (-6%); wetter autumn (-54%) 2
Frequency of extreme drought similar to 1st half of 20
th century (~1
drought / 20 years) 1
1 www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
2 www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au
3 www.climatecouncil.org.au/be-prepared-climate-change-the-act-bushfire-threat
4 www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/climate-analogues/analogues-explorer/
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Table 3. Summary of biodiversity options for ”Practical Implementation” from the AdaptNRM Toolbox for helping biodiversity adapt to climate change.
Category Strategic goals Actions **
No
-re
gre
ts o
pti
on
s
Help nature take its course
(Facilitate resilience and
adaptability)
1a. Maintain large populations
1b. Promote species-level genetic diversity in
plantings
1c. Manage and restore connectivity to
support migration and range shifts
1d. Minimise human-induced non-climatic
stressors
1e. Monitor and accept change
Manage change in key
ecosystem services
2. Identify and manage ecosystem services
* Promote re–assembly with
native species (A)
3a. Manage nationally alien species
3b. Continue to include ‘local species’ in
plantings, as some might survive
3c. Introduce non-local native species using
the proximity principle
Identify, manage, and
protect refugia
4. Identify, manage, and protect refugia
Manage for diversity and
monitor what works
5. Promote resilience through diversity
Use ‘CAR’ principles to
conserve environment types
6. Use ‘Comprehensive, Adequate,
Representative’ principles to protect the full
range of Australian environments (at a
national scale)
Encourage positive land use
changes for biodiversity
7. Favour land use changes with positive
rather than negative biodiversity outcomes
Inte
ns
ive o
pti
on
s
Actively manage ecological
processes
8a. Assisted dispersal
8b. More intensively manage fire regimes at
site and landscape scales to favour desired
trajectories
8c. Consider landscape engineering solutions
8d. Intensively manage natural pressures to
help conserve highly valued species or
ecological communities
Intensively manage
‘museums’
9a. Maintain ex situ populations and breeding
programs for iconic species
9b. Create reserves with hard boundaries and
intensively manage within them
* Promote re–assembly with
native species (B)
3d. Introduce non-local native species using
the proximity principle
* In the Toolbox, “Promote re–assembly with native species” describes a number of actions that are spread
between “no-regrets” (A) and “intensive” (B).
** ‘No regrets’ approaches are considered to be suitable now, or for lesser degrees of climate change, whereas
intensive options are higher risk or expensive options, and could be applied when the pressure to change
increases and decision points are reached. An assessment of the extent to which options identified by
participants address the full range of AdaptNRM options is contained in Tables 4-6.
Note: Bold numbering has been assigned to actions to assist with determining alignment between options
identified through the BAP Project and documented in Tables 4-6, and actions recommended by AdaptNRM and
presented in Table 3.
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3.1.4 Identifying appropriate adaptation measures in the BAP Project
In identifying appropriate adaptation measures, it is necessary to evaluate options based on
a range of feasibility factors, such as appropriateness, cost effectiveness, and other
associated risks and uncertainties.
BAP participants used the UK Climate Impacts Programme framework to undertake this
assessment and to identify preferred/priority options (refer Figure 2).
Figure 2. UK Climate Impacts Programme – Adaptation options
No-regrets options – adaptive measures that are worthwhile (i.e. they deliver net socio-economic benefits) whatever the extent of future climate change Low-regrets options – adaptive measures for which the associated costs are relatively low and for which the benefits, although primarily realised under projected future climate change, may be relatively large. This category is also described as low cost – high benefit Win-win options – adaptation measures that have the desired result in terms of minimising the climate risks or exploiting potential opportunities, but also have other social, environmental or economic benefits Flexible options – involve putting in place incremental adaptation options, rather than undertaking large-scale adaptation in one fell swoop Source: UK Climate Impacts Programme (CIP) Identifying adaptation options guide (UK CIP 2007)
3.1.5 Adaptation pathways in the BAP Project
The approach used to develop adaptation pathways is outlined in User Guide for Applied
Adaptation Pathway (Siebentritt and Stafford Smith, 2016).
The BAP Project used adaptation pathways to enable workshop participants to sequence the
implementation of preferred management options under different climate futures. The
adaptation pathways developed by BAP workshop participants for the three ecosystem
themes are included in Section 4.
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4 BAP project key findings
4.1 General findings
Overall, BAP workshop participant responses indicated that the ACT is undertaking and/or
trialling a broad range of biodiversity adaptation actions across grasslands, woodlands, and
river corridors and wetlands. These actions are well aligned with the AdaptNRM toolbox
(refer Table 3), which participants recognised as a useful framework for identifying a broad
range of management options for biodiversity adaptation.
BAP workshop participants identified a range of ‘what’ management options under different
climate change scenarios. They also considered operational issues relating to ‘when’ and
’how’ to implement management options. However, due to the limited time given to this
exercise, it is recognised that significant additional work is required to inform ‘when’ and
‘how’ management decisions. Participants found it difficult to identify current management
practices that should cease, despite the recognition that biodiversity would experience
considerable changes in the future. The adaptation pathways presented in this report aim to
illustrate the workshop process, rather than provide definitive adaptation pathways for the
ACT and Region.
4.2 Grasslands
4.2.1 Values attributed to grasslands
Participants attributed a range of values to grasslands, as listed in Table 4, which range from
biodiversity and ecosystem services, to aesthetics, recreational opportunity, and a sense of
belonging.
Table 4. Values attributed to woodland ecosystems identified by BAP Project participants.
Grasslands
aesthetic and visual non-urban space
agriculture quality or extent
biodiversity rare - iconic - unique species
bird watching real estate
economic opportunity - not specified recreation
flowers reptiles
food research and education
human health + wellbeing social gatherings
hunting support and regulation services
identity - sense of belonging - heritage tranquility - space - relaxation
livestock walking, running, cycling
4.2.2 Grassland adaptation options
Adaptation options for grasslands, identified by participants for each of the scenarios outlined in Table 1b, are summarised in Table 5. Of particular interest moving forward are the options put forward under high climate scenarios A and B.
4.2.3 Grassland adaptation pathways
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Symbolic adaptation pathways were developed by participants for each of the scenarios
outlined in Table 1b.
Figures A and B show adaptation pathways for grasslands under high climate scenarios,
developed by participants.
4.2.4 Priorities for climate ready grasslands
In further developing the ACT’s adaptive management regime for grasslands, participants
identified the following key options:
Identify, monitor and minimise threats to natural temperate grasslands
Prepare and implement management plans for active conservation of remnants
Re-introduce disturbance regimes in reserves to create habitat mosaics
Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of conservation projects to guide investment
Develop site specific guidance for prioritisation of conservation actions
Identify and introduce climactically resilient native species from the surrounding region or preferably provenance variants of species
Promote resilience through diversity specific site focus
Further discussion within ACT Government has also identified the need to:
Identify and manage climate refugia
Develop principles to guide investment in species conservation under high climate scenarios
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Table 5. Adaptation options for grasslands identified for Scenarios A, B, C and D.
“Timing” indicates whether implementation is immediate or delayed. “Business as usual” indicates whether an action is part of existing management practices. The numbers in the “AdaptNRM” column relate to the numbering of actions in Table 3.
Grasslands - consolidated adaptation options
Bu
sin
es
s a
s
usu
al
Tim
ing
Pre
ferr
ed
Scenario
No
reg
rets
Lo
w c
ost – h
igh
ben
efi
t
Win
-win
Fle
xib
le
Hig
h c
ost-
hig
h
ben
efi
t
Hig
h c
ost-
low
ben
efi
t
Ad
ap
tNR
M
A
B
C
D
Captive breeding programs Yes Now
x
x x 9a
Continue 'seed' banking for 'priority' species Yes Now
x
x
9a
Create buffers outside grassland of less intensive management Yes Now P x
x x x x
Novel
Greater community involvement in the management and monitoring of
reserves Yes Now P x x x
x
7
Identify, monitor and minimise threats to natural temperate grasslands Yes Now P x x
x x
1d
Prepare and implement management plans for active conservation of
remnants Yes Now P x x x x x x
x x
9
Prioritise weed management options, focusing on C4 species and
other critical weeds Yes Now
x
x
x x 3a
Re-introduce disturbance regimes in reserves to create habitat
mosaics Yes Now P x x x x
x x x
8d
Restore natural temperate grasslands by managing for diversity and
monitoring what works (“resilience through diversity) Yes Now
x
5
Engineering of artificial habitats Yes Now
x
x
8
Community breeding of established grasslands species No Now
x
x
9a
Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of conservation projects to guide
investments No Now
x x x x
x
x
Novel
Develop site specific guidance for prioritisation of conservation actions No Now P x x x x
x
x
Novel
Identify and introduce climactically resilient native species from
surrounding region or preferably provenance variants of species No Now
x x
x
x x
3c
Invest in infrastructure around grasslands to increase human No Now
x
x
Novel
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Grasslands - consolidated adaptation options
Bu
sin
es
s a
s
usu
al
Tim
ing
Pre
ferr
ed
Scenario
No
reg
rets
Lo
w c
ost – h
igh
ben
efi
t
Win
-win
Fle
xib
le
Hig
h c
ost-
hig
h
ben
efi
t
Hig
h c
ost-
low
ben
efi
t
Ad
ap
tNR
M
A
B
C
D
interaction compatible with conservation
Investigate more compatible recreation opportunities in grassland
reserves No Now x
x
7
Strategic re-introductions of locally extinct fauna (re-wilding) No Now
x
x x Novel
Increase the size and connectivity of grassland No 5 years P x
x 1a, 1c
Explore opportunities for irrigation of natural values No 10 years
x
x
Novel
Create reserves and protected areas with hard boundaries and
intensively manage few key sites Yes Now P
x
x
x
x
9b
Make greater use of technology for environmental benefit Yes Now
x
x
Novel
Promote resilience through diversity specific site focus Yes Now
x x x
x
5
Support and facilitate knowledge sharing and collaboration Yes Now P
x
x x
Novel
Increase Government commitment to compliance No Now
x
x
Novel
Sell kangaroo meat from reserves to fund environmental management No 10 years
x
x
Novel
Figures A and B: Legend for adaptation pathways map:
a solid, dark green line indicates the time period over which an option is considered useful
A lighter green line indicates time before an action occurs where preparatory work is required
circles indicate a critical decision point
yellow lines with arrows indicate preferred pathways that need to be further assessed
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Figure A. Grassland adaptation pathway for Scenario A (High climate change and high social values toward biodiversity).
Figure B. Grassland adaptation pathway for Scenario B (High climate change and low social value toward biodiversity).
Identify and monitor threats
to natural temperate grassland
Support and facilitate knowledge
sharing and collaboration
Design approach to evaluate and
prioritise conservation projects
Implement management plans for
active conservation of remnants
Strengthen regional partnerships and
community stewardship
Create reserves with hard boundaries
and manage intensively at key sites
Re-introduce disturbance regimes in
reserves to create habitat mosaics
Make greater use of technology for
environmental benefit
Sell kangaroo meat from reserves
to fund environmental management
Introduce climactically resilient native
species from surrounding region
0 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 yrs
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4.3 Woodlands
4.3.1 Values attributed to woodlands
Participants attributed a range of values to woodlands, as listed in Table 6, which range from
biodiversity and ecosystem services, to aesthetics, recreational opportunity, and a sense of
belonging.
Table 6. Values attributed to woodland ecosystems identified by BAP Project participants.
Woodlands
aesthetic and visual identity - sense of belonging - heritage
agriculture photography
amenity - not specified positive emotions
economic opportunity quality or extent
existence rare - iconic - unique species
flowers recreation
food research and education
fuel wood social gatherings
human health + wellbeing trees
hunting walking, running, cycling
4.3.2 Woodland adaptation options
Adaptation options for woodlands, identified by participants for each of the scenarios outlined in Table 1b, are summarised in Table 7. Of particular interest moving forward are the options put forward under high climate
scenarios A and B Figures C and D show adaptation pathways for woodlands under high
climate scenarios, developed by participants.
4.3.3 Woodland adaptation pathways
Symbolic woodland adaptation pathways were developed by participants for each of the
scenarios outlined in Table 1b. Figures C and D show adaptation pathways for woodlands
under high climate scenarios.
4.3.4 Priorities for climate ready woodlands
In further developing the ACT’s adaptive management regime for woodlands, participants
identified the following key options:
Increase funding for monitoring and management research
Manage native vegetation based on fire risk – planning and review
Strengthen management research partnerships
Collaborate with existing land uses/users where biodiversity is a co-benefit
Increase communication, engagement and education with the public
Rehabilitate woodland with a focus on high connectivity and recreation value
Develop new markets for ecosystem services (e.g. soil ecosystem services)
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Table 7. Adaptation options for woodlands identified for Scenarios A, B, C and D.
“Timing” indicates whether implementation is immediate or delayed. “Business as usual” indicates whether an action is part of existing management practices.
The numbers in the “AdaptNRM” column relate to the numbering of actions in Table 3.
Woodland adaptation options
Bu
sin
es
s a
s
usu
al
Tim
ing
Pre
ferr
ed
Scenario
No
reg
rets
Lo
w c
ost
- h
igh
ben
efi
ts
Win
-win
Fle
xib
le
Hig
h c
ost-
hig
h
ben
efi
t
Hig
h c
ost-
low
ben
efi
t
Ad
ap
tNR
M
A
B
C
D
Create artificial habitat for threatened species Yes Now P x
x
8c
Identify translocation sites and provide resources for maintenance Yes Now P x
6
Increase economic gain from biodiversity friendly activity Yes Now
x
Novel
Increase funding for monitoring and management research Yes Now P x x
x x
x
1e
Invest in iconic species Yes Now
x
Novel
Manage native vegetation based upon fire risk - planning and review Yes Now
x x x
x 8b
Manage natural pressures Yes Now
x
8d
Promote ecotourism in nature reserves Yes Now
x
Novel
Identify synergies between woodland priorities and other conservation
objectives (e.g. water quality, fire management, etc) Yes Now
x
x
Novel
Promote conservation across public and private lands (tenure-blind) Yes Now
x
x
Novel
Re-assess woodland connectivity priorities in light of climate change Yes Now P x
x
1c
Strengthen management-research partnerships Yes Now P x x
x x
x
Novel
Target control of invasive species and pathways e.g. biological control Yes Now P x
x
3a
Develop marketing strategy to support conservation actions No Now
x
x
Novel
Link decision-making across sectors No Now
x
x
Novel
Review conservation goal of maintaining natural integrity to consider
new objectives that allow for structural change No Now P x
Novel
Engage stakeholders to better understand social values No Now
x
x
Novel
Change policy on activities permitted in reserves No 5 years P x
x
Novel
Convert softwood plantations to reserves with native vegetation and
biodiversity focus No 5 years P x
x
x x
7
Page 19
Woodland adaptation options
Bu
sin
es
s a
s
usu
al
Tim
ing
Pre
ferr
ed
Scenario
No
reg
rets
Lo
w c
ost
- h
igh
ben
efi
ts
Win
-win
Fle
xib
le
Hig
h c
ost-
hig
h
ben
efi
t
Hig
h c
ost-
low
ben
efi
t
Ad
ap
tNR
M
A
B
C
D
Focus policy guidance on site-specific management recommendations No 5 years
x
Novel
Develop methods for biological invasive species control No 5 years
x
3a
Develop policy for encouraging conservation actions on recoverable
lands e.g. hobby farming No 5 years
x
7
Legislate and develop culture of threatened plants in gardens No 5 years
x
x
9a
Invest in large natural areas not specifically sanctuaries No 15 years P x
1a
Invest in threatened species likely to persist No 20 years
x
9
Prioritise threatened species most likely to persist in reserves No 20 years P x
Novel
Change building codes for houses to cope with extreme weather No 25 years
x
Novel
Collaborate with existing land uses where biodiversity is a co-benefit Yes Now P
x
x
7
Increase communication, engagement and education with the public Yes Now P
x
x x
x
Novel
Maintain threatened species for conservation tourism value (e.g. the
Mulligans Flat Wildlife Sanctuary model) Yes Now
x
x Novel
Manage parks based on priority ecosystem services for human benefit
e.g. fire, recreation Yes Now
x
x 2
Rehabilitate woodland with a focus on high connectivity and recreation
value Yes Now P
x x x
x
Novel
Develop new markets for ecosystem services (e.g. soil ecosystem
services) No Now P
x
x
2
Target urban planning for biodiversity benefit No 15 years P
x
Novel
Figures C and D: Legend for adaptation pathways map:
a solid, dark green line indicates the time period over which an option is considered useful
A lighter green line indicates time before an action occurs where preparatory work is required
circles indicate a critical decision point
yellow lines with arrows indicate preferred pathways that need to be further assessed
Page 20
Figure C. Woodland adaptation pathway for Scenario A (High climate change and high social values toward biodiversity).
Figure D. Woodland adaptation pathway for Scenario B (High climate change and low social value toward biodiversity).
Evaluate conservation objectives
given changes in climate and social
values
Strengthen management-research
partnerships
Create artificial habitat for
threatened species
Transition mixed value and production
areas to biodiversity areas
Change policy on activities permitted
In reserves
Identify translocation sites and
provide resources for maintenance
Targeted control of invasive species
and pathways e.g. biological control
Develop policy for conservation on
recoverable lands e.g. hobby farms
Shift priority locations for on-ground
connectivity enhancement
Invest in large natural areas not
specifically sanctuaries
Prioritise threatened species most
likely to persist in reserves
0 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 yrs
Collaborate with existing land uses
where biodiversity is a co-benefit
Rehabilitate woodland with high
connectivity and recreation value
New markets for ecosystem services
Increase communication and
engagement with the public on the
importance of woodlands
Partnership model for research and
monitoring
Manage native vegetation based
upon fire risk
Manage parks based on priority
ecosystem services for human benefit
Maintain threatened species for
conservation tourism value
Targeted planning for biodiversity
benefit
0 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 yrs
Page 21
4.4 River corridors and wetlands
4.4.1 Values attributed to river corridors and wetlands
Participants attributed a range of values to river corridors and wetlands, as listed in Table 8,
which range from biodiversity and ecosystem services, to aesthetics, recreational
opportunity, and a sense of belonging.
Table 8. Values attributed to river corridors and wetland ecosystems identified by BAP
Project participants.
River corridors and wetlands
aesthetic and visual non-urban space
amenity positive emotions
birds real estate
boating and swimming recreation
economic opportunity research and education
fish support and regulation services
food tranquility - space – relaxation
human health and wellbeing walking, running, cycling
identity - sense of belonging - heritage water
livestock
4.4.2 River corridors and wetland adaptation options
Adaptation options river corridor and wetlands, identified by participants for each of the scenarios outlined in Table 1b, are summarised in Table 9. Of particular interest moving forward are the options put forward under high climate scenarios A and B.
4.4.3 River corridors and wetland adaptation pathways
Symbolic river corridors and wetland adaptation pathways were developed by participants
for each of the scenarios outlined in Table 1b. Figures E and F show adaptation pathways
for river corridors and wetlands under high climate scenarios.
4.4.4 Priorities for climate ready river corridors and wetlands
In further developing the ACT’s adaptive management regime for river corridors and
wetlands, participants identified the following key options:
Adopt water quality improvement measures in both rural and urban areas
Better manage surface flows and groundwater across catchments
Improve cross-border implementation of environmental flows
Identify and manage for ecosystem services
Identify, establish, manage and protect refugia
Protect and rehabilitate banks and instream habitat (not always vegetation)
Intensively manage pressures to conserve valued species
Raise awareness of links between human activities and environmental impacts
Page 22
Table 9. Adaptation options for river corridors and wetlands identified for Scenarios A, B, C and D.
“Timing” indicates whether implementation is immediate or delayed. “Business as usual” indicates whether an action is part of existing management practices. The numbers in the “AdaptNRM” column relate to the numbering of actions in Table 3.
River corridors and wetlands adaptation options
Bu
sin
es
s a
s
usu
al
Tim
ing
Pre
ferr
ed
Scenario
No
reg
rets
Lo
w c
ost
- h
igh
ben
efi
ts
Win
-win
Fle
xib
le
Hig
h c
ost-
hig
h
ben
efi
t
Hig
h c
ost-
low
ben
efi
t
Ad
ap
tNR
M
A
B
C
D
Adopt water quality improvement measures in both rural and urban
areas Yes Now x x x
x
x x x
1d
Better manage surface flows and groundwater across catchments Yes Now x x x
x x
x
7
Control aquatic pests (e.g. carp, Gambusia) Yes Now
x
x x
3a
Control invasive pest plants (including willows) Yes Now
x x x
x x x 3a
Better understand local management needs for groundwater Yes Now
x
Novel
Implement angling (fisheries management) tools to protect aquatic
fauna Yes Now
x
x
x x
Novel
Improve cross-border implementation of environmental flows Yes Now x x
x x x x
x
Novel
Manage threatened plants and animals through artificially maintained
populations (stocking and translocation) Yes Now
x
x x
9a
Protect and rehabilitate banks and instream habitat (not always
vegetation) Yes Now x x x x x x x x x
x 1c, 1d
Rehabilitate and expand (cold water) fish habitat and enhance in-
stream connectivity Yes Now x x
x
x x
1c
Mine sand to reduce areas of deposition caused by human intervention
in the catchment Yes Now
x
x
1d
Research transitional and transformational management actions for
riparian zones under climate scenarios No Now
x
Novel
Identify and manage ecosystem services No 5 years
x x
x
2
Identify, establish, manage and protect refugia (including use of cold
water dam releases) No 10 years x x
x x
x x x
4
Re-introduce threatened aquatic species from NSW which have been No 10 years
x
x x
3c
Page 23
River corridors and wetlands adaptation options
Bu
sin
es
s a
s
usu
al
Tim
ing
Pre
ferr
ed
Scenario
No
reg
rets
Lo
w c
ost
- h
igh
ben
efi
ts
Win
-win
Fle
xib
le
Hig
h c
ost-
hig
h
ben
efi
t
Hig
h c
ost-
low
ben
efi
t
Ad
ap
tNR
M
A
B
C
D
lost in the ACT
Increase social values of aquatic biodiversity from low to high Yes Now x
x
x
x
Novel
Intensively manage pressures to conserve valued species Yes Now x
x x x
x x
8d
Raise awareness of links between human activities and environmental
impacts Yes Now x
x x
x x
Novel
Stock fish in lakes to take pressure off rivers Yes Now
x
x
Novel
Maintain functional vegetation cover No Now x
x
x
3b, 3c
Support succession of native vegetation - trial and error No 10 years
x
x
8a
Figures E and F: Legend for adaptation pathways map:
a solid, dark green line indicates the time period over which an option is considered useful
A lighter green line indicates time before an action occurs where preparatory work is required
circles indicate a critical decision point
yellow lines with arrows indicate preferred pathways that need to be further assessed
Page 24
Figure E. River corridors and wetlands adaptation pathway for Scenario A (High climate change and high social values toward biodiversity).
Figure F. River corridors and wetlands adaptation pathway for Scenario B (High climate change and low social value toward biodiversity).
Protect and rehabilitate banks and
instream habitat
Catchment management (surface
and groundwater)
Expand fish habitat and enhance
in-stream connectivity
Adopt water quality improvement
measures
Improve cross-border implementation
of environmental flows
Implement angling management
tools to protect aquatic fauna
Control invasive pest plants and
animals
Maintain existing threatened species
(e.g. artificial populations)
R&D into transitional and
transformational options
Identify, manage and protect refugia,
including with cold water releases
Sand mining to reduce areas of
deposition and increase habitat
Introduce (translocate) species from
outside of the ACT
0 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 yrs
Catchment management
Raise awareness of impact of human
activity on environmental values
Increase social values for biodiversity
Maintain functional vegetation
cover and support succession
Control invasive plants
Rehabilitate banks
Improve water quality in urban and
rural areas
Stock fish in lakes and rivers
Intensively manage natural
pressures to conserve valued
species
Identify and manage ecosystem
services
Support succession of vegetation
0 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 yrs
Page 25
4.5 Knowledge management
4.5.1 Data, information and knowledge
Participants distinguished between data, information and knowledge.
Figure G. Definitions for data, information and knowledge
Data – which can range from personal undocumented observations, paper records, digital records and media records
For example, when considering
climate change:
Data = climate projections
Information - which can be described as data that is consolidated, analysed or presented, and
Information = drought and
bushfire impacts
Knowledge – which is data and information used to inform decision-making for planning, policy, programs and research.
Knowledge = management and
policy responses
4.5.2 Technological innovation and governance arrangements
Participants identified technological innovation as a key driver of change in knowledge
management which is creating opportunities to:
Collect higher quality and a broader range of data
Reduce the cost and ease of data collection
Harmonise data management systems so that they can complement one another at local, regional and national scales
Improve reliability and accuracy of data collection
Improve accessibility to data, information and knowledge
Improve sharing and communication between data curators and
Communicate more effectively with decision-makers.
It was also recognised that supportive institutional and governance arrangements are
required in order to take advantage of technological innovation. Participants identified two
such important new governance arrangements:
ACT and Region Catchment Management Coordination Group (identified as an immediate priority) and
Compliance with the ACT Government’s Open Data Policy.
4.5.3 Potential actions in support of knowledge management
Participants identified a range of potential actions that could support more effective knowledge management as listed in Table 10.
Page 26
Table 10. Summary of options for knowledge management in the ACT and Region identified by BAP Project participants.
Immediate actions
Identify critical knowledge gaps and assumptions
Define and review key questions and objectives (e.g. in light of climate change)
Develop an ACT Knowledge Strategy ( identify key roles and responsibilities)
Improve communication on biodiversity adaptation (extinction, captive breeding, translocations, etc) and
Expand roles and responsibilities of statutory Inter-Jurisdictional Catchment Coordination Group (e.g. NRM, conservation).
Delayed actions
Report on 'ACT State of Knowledge' (e.g. values, trends, indices, workflows, learnings, decision making processes)
Capture institutional / corporate knowledge (e.g. from long-serving staff)
Promote applications of remote ecosystem surveillance (e.g. TERN, long-term monitoring sites);
Develop and deploy real-time modeling and evaluation (e.g. bushfire risks, restoration priorities, state of environment)
Unpack NRM knowledge (communications, awareness, sharing)
Develop environmental accounting rules and reporting
Build capacity in assessing complex trade-offs
Develop pricing of NRM, conservation and catchment management to help build the business case for prioritising environmental information
Use online ACT Government profiles to help target engagement to assess social values and
Develop web tools to aggregate and integrate information from disparate online portals.
4.6 Potential barriers/challenges affecting climate adaptation
4.6.1 Values- rules- knowledge barriers and challenges
Participants identified perceived potential barriers to implementation of priority adaptation
responses, using the values-rules-knowledge framework:
4.6.2 Values
Conflicting values and a lack of coherence between the principles of natural resource management, and the wants of the community and business
Other priorities competing with climate change – e.g. household and health costs and
Lack of financial value placed on biodiversity, which results in failure to develop an economically viable natural resource management sector.
4.6.3 Rules
Inter-jurisdictional inconsistencies in objectives, priorities and implementation strategies e.g. between ACT and surrounding regions
Lack of cohesion within government resulting in cross-sectoral win-lose outcomes, instead of win-win, and resulting in the implementation of options which are not in accordance with management plans and
Constraints on the generation of financial returns due to the limited types of partnerships that are permitted.
4.6.4 Knowledge
Risks associated with the use of citizen science in co-management arrangements
Page 27
Mismatch in the timing of the demonstrable long term benefits of new or existing policy and management options and decision-making cycles
Lack of knowledge on the effectiveness of management regimes due to an absence of a structured monitoring framework
Absence of an ACT and national data system for natural resource management similar to what is available for socio-economic metrics, i.e. lack of transparency in relation to environmental performance, and
Uncertainty about climate change impacts, how they will interact with other non-climate change impacts, and how different species will respond.
4.6.5 Knowledge management
Participants identified the following challenges that impact on knowledge management:
disruptions caused by periodic restructuring of government agencies
perceptions that environmental data, information and knowledge are not a organisational priority
a culture of data ownership rather than open access
lack of policies on data standards, including guidelines for recording metadata
rapid changes in technology are difficult to keep abreast of, and integrate into current practices and systems
lack of guidance for contracts and
slow delivery of information required to meet decision-making needs.
Page 28
5 Next steps
5.1 Climate appropriate biodiversity adaptation
Moving forward, it is important to focus biodiversity adaptation responses on the most
plausible scenarios for climate change. Based on current modelling of greenhouse gas
emission trajectories, this means planning for high climate change scenarios.
Figure H. Greenhouse gas emissions
Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/
5.2 Changing values underpinning biodiversity conservation
Conservation efforts have conventionally been pinned to the rarity value of species and
communities. Under climate change these values will be tested, for example, climate change
impacts could modify the suitability of the region to support certain species or communities.
Similarly, other drivers, such social needs and values, are expected to exert a stronger
influence on what is acceptable or desirable as biodiversity conservation. Potential barriers
and challenges expected to affect climate adaptation were highlighted in section 4.6.
5.3 Biodiversity conservation into the future
It is recognised that climate change is expected to lead to significant ecological change. As
climate change impacts become more apparent, there is likely to be an increased need and
urgency to respond to questions that support the transition of “managing what is known”, i.e.
under current climate, to also “managing for what might be”, under plausible future climates.
Adaptation responses and decisions can be categorised as measures and strategies that
contribute either to:
Building adaptive capacity – creating the information (research, data collecting and monitoring, awareness raising), supportive social structures (organisational
Page 29
development, working in partnership, institutions), and supportive governance (regulations, legislations, and guidance) that are needed as a foundation for delivering adaptation actions or
Delivering adaptation actions – actions that help to reduce vulnerability to climate risks, or to exploit opportunities.
These two categories reflect the range of adaptation measures and strategies from which a
good adaptation response can be developed.1
In investigating the opportunities, risks and issues arising from expected changes in climate
and social values, decision makers face questions such as how can the ACT and Region:
preserve and/or improve ecosystem function and health?
ensure ecosystem services, as natural systems transition in response to changes in climate and/or other drivers of change?
mitigate risks of maladaptation? and
promote win-win outcomes for the environment and society at a landscape scale?
In responding to these questions, the ACT and Region will need to be prepared to consider
some of the more challenging issues such as how to:
better integrate “climate-ready objectives” into policies and plans
respond to situations where a species or community that today is characteristic of the region, may be lost to the region, due to climate and/or other drivers of change?
respond when faced with trade-offs? E.g. when forced to choose between saving one species over another
protect and manage sites for climate refugia values
choose between management options. E.g. choosing between when to cease, continue or commence a management action? These choices would require a consistent decision-making framework which might include tools such as cost-benefit analysis, risk management assessments, likelihood of success measures and assessment of the effectiveness and adequacy of the package/suite of management actions being implemented
monitor system changes.
Addressing risks associated with a changing climate and taking anticipatory actions to
address risks and opportunities associated with longer-term climate change requires a
commitment to an adaptive management model.
As climate impacts become more apparent, decision-making for planning and managing for
climate adaptation is likely to require more flexible and responsive policy, budgetary and
management regimes. Additionally, value-based principles and thresholds for transitional
and transformative management strategies will need to be specified. The need for long-term
thinking, which includes the identification of strategies that could be implemented over long
periods of time, alongside short-term goals, will need to become the norm. These ideas are
central aspects of the decision sequencing/timing concepts of adaptation pathways, which
were explored through the BAP Project.
1 Source: UK Climate Impact Programme – Identifiying Adaptation Options
Page 30
5.4 Priority work to support climate adaptation
In order for the ACT and Region to respond to its policy commitments (refer section 2.2) it
would benefit from addressing some of the more complex questions around biodiversity
adaptation that were highlighted in section 5.3.
Appropriate adaptation responses rely on improved understanding about how the future
unfolds. Increased knowledge on how threats and opportunities are likely to change and
critical thresholds and triggers will provide decision makers with additional guidance on
‘when to stay the course’ versus ‘when to change tack’.
The focus of this section is to build on the process that was initiated by the BAP Project, and
to identify further work that can support climate adaptation in the ACT and Region.
5.4.1 Climate ready objectives
The ACT’s legislation and policies promote the integration of climate considerations in
planning and implementation. Climate ready objectives in policies, strategies and plans is an
effective way of guiding future actions and creating an operating environment that is better
suited to decision-making under climate change..
It is also beneficial to regularly assess the suite of current management actions for their
appropriateness and effectiveness, and to update them to improve biodiversity adaptation
outcomes. Applying national best practice frameworks and tools, such as the AdaptNRM
strategies and actions (refer Table 3), is considered an effective way to continuously improve
the ACT and Region’s approach.
Recommendation 1
The ACT Government include climate ready objectives in its future policies, strategies and
plans for biodiversity conservation.
Recommendation 2
The ACT Government apply national best practice frameworks and tools for identifying and
continually improving adaptation management options in the ACT and Region.
5.4.2 Climate refugia
In moving forward, additional work is required to establish a clear understanding of the
implications of climate change on our native species and ecological communities. Identifying
climate refugia has been highlighted as a key pillar of the ACT’s approach to biodiversity
adaptation in its existing policies and strategies (refer section 1.2). Notably, it is specified
under Strategy 3, Action 4 of the ACT Nature Conservation Strategy 2013-23, and remains a
critical knowledge gap.
By identifying climate refugia for threatened, rare and keystone species, it is possible to
establish what is plausible within given climate futures. This work is, therefore, an important
precursor to the development of any decision-support framework for biodiversity adaptation.
Information on climate refugia also complements existing datasets that the ACT Government
has recently invested in, such as datasets for vegetation type and structure, soil and
hydrogeology.
Page 31
Knowledge of climate refugia can be an important input to action plans, management plans
and operational guidance. It can provide a basis for land managers to undertake further work
into better understanding the management needs and long-term conservation values of
these critical areas. Used in conjunction with information related to other relevant drivers of
change and threatening processes, it can inform investment decision-making.
Recommendation 3
The ACT Government undertake spatial analysis to fill a knowledge gap around potential
climate refugia in the ACT.
5.4.3 Monitoring for biodiversity climate adaptation
Identification and monitoring of lead indicators will be a critical element of an adaptive
management regime. They can help track progress against a range of plausible future
trajectories shown to influence decision-making, help identify critical thresholds, and alert
when practice change is required. In addition to observing and tracking system changes in
this way, we can also ground truth information and management practices, and provide an
evidence base for future policy development and for the selection and implementation of
management options. Ensuring that this feedback loop is built into decision making
processes is critical to ensuring that potential maladaptation outcomes are avoided and/or
effectively managed.
Recommendation 4
The ACT Government to explore methods for observing and tracking climate related system
changes.
5.4.4 Managing data and information to improve decision-making and
collaboration
Ensuring timely access by decision makers to accurate information has become
technologically feasible. Knowledge managers are expected to play an increasingly
important role in the setting up of harmonised information systems to collect, maintain,
manage, analyse and report on data and information about climate resilience of native
species and communities, and transitional and transformational options and opportunities to
safeguard ecosystem services and landscape function.
Recommendation 5
The ACT Government continue to strengthen collaboration in working with key stakeholders
to improve availability and accessibility of critical data and to support biodiversity adaptation
across south east Australia.
Page 32
6 References Costanza, R., I. Kubiszewski, S. Cork, P. Atkins, A. Bean, A. Diamond, N. J. Grigg, E. Korb,
J. Logg-Scarvell, R. Navis, and K. Patrick. 2015. Scenarios for Australia in 2050: A
Synthesis and Proposed Survey. Journal of Futures Studies 19:49-76.
Dunlop, M., Parris, H., Ryan, P. and Kroon, F. 2013. Climate-ready conservation objectives:
a scoping study. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast,
pp. 102.
Gorddard, R., Colloff, M.J., Wise, R.M., Wareb, D. and Dunlop, M. 2015. Values, rules and
knowledge: Adaptation as change in the decision context. Environmental Science & Policy
57: 60–69.
Jäger, J., D. S. Rothman, C. Anastasi, S. Kartha, and P. van Notten. 2007. GEO Resource
Book: A training manual on integrated environmental assessment and reporting. Training
Module 6. Scenario Development and analysis., UNEP and IISD.
Prober, S.M., Williams, K.J., Harwood, T.D., Doerr, V.A.J., Jeanneret, T., Manion, G.,
Ferrier, S. 2015. Helping Biodiversity Adapt: Supporting climate-adaptation planning using a
community-level modelling approach. CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Canberra.
Stockholm Environment Institute and CIFOR. 2009. Multiple-Scale Participatory Scenarios:
Visions, Policies, and Pathways. Stockholm Environment Institute and Center for
International Forestry Research, Stockholm.
http://adaptnrm.csiro.au/biodiversity-options/the-biodiversity-adaptation-toolbox/
http://adaptnrm.csiro.au/biodiversity-options/the-biodiversity-adaptation-toolbox/practical-
implementation/
UK Climate Impacts Programme. 2007. Identifying adaptation options. Environmental
Change Institute, University of Oxford.
Siebentritt, M.A. and Stafford Smith, M. 2016. A User’s Guide to Applied Adaptation
Pathways. In preparation.