adaptation of biodiversity to climate change in southern africa
DESCRIPTION
Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern Africa. CSIR, National Botanical Institute, University of Pretoria & Kruger National Park. The ‘Biodiversity sector’. Biodiversity. Intrinsic value. Protection. Off-reserve. State. Private. ecotourism. Goods and services. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern
Africa
CSIR, National Botanical Institute, University of Pretoria & Kruger National Park.
The ‘Biodiversity sector’
Tourism
Biodiversity
ProtectionState
Private
Intrinsic value
Goods and services ec
otou
rism
Off-reserve
Objectives of the Southern Africa AIACC Biodiversity study
Advance the state of the science (entails publishing papers)
Explore adaptation optionsDevelop tools for wider useRaise capacity and awareness
Study area
Three case studies– Cape: data rich, diverse, mountains, patchy– Karoo: data poor, geology– ‘Kruger’: large mammals and birds
3 Case studies2. North Eastern Lowveld
1. Succulent Karoo
3. Cape Floral Kingdom
Key Analyses:Step 1
Work with stakeholders to identify project plan
Key Analyses:Step 1
Work with stakeholders to identify project plan
Step 2Determine:
Current knowledge (literature search)Past/present biodiversity management
Species distributions
Key Analyses:Step 1
Work with stakeholders to identify project plan
Step 2Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)Past/present biodiversity management
Species distributions
Step 3Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios
Determine species environmental envelopesModel species responses (dynamic models)
Key Analyses:Step 1
Work with stakeholders to identify project plan
Step 2Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)Past/present biodiversity management
Species distributions
Step 3Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios
Determine species environmental envelopesModel species responses (dynamic models)Step 4
Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools)
Key Analyses:Step 1
Work with stakeholders to identify project plan
Step 2Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)Past/present biodiversity management
Species distributions
Step 3Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios
Determine species environmental envelopesModel species responses (dynamic models)Step 4
Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools)Step 5
Case studies
Key Analyses:Step 1
Work with stakeholders to identify project plan
Step 2Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)Past/present biodiversity management
Species distributions
Step 3Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios
Determine species environmental envelopesModel species responses (dynamic models)Step 4
Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools)Step 5
Case studiesStep 6
Synthesis, recommendations and training
Current vulnerabilityIdentify threatened species by expert
opinion (Red Data species will be included in the analysis)
Establish extent of occurrence of speciesOverlay land use data to assess current
vulnerability
Current vulnerability (continued)
Define coping ranges and threshold limits using various climatic and socio-economic variables (using basic statistical techniques, e.g. probability analysis)
Explicit identification of uncertaintiesDefine current biodiversity management
practices and policies
Individuals to target (to factor climate change in) e.g:Nature Reserve Network (individuals concerned with the conservation of natural resources)Government Departments (e.g. DWAF, DEAT, NDA, DACST) UniversitiesPrivate sector &Local people.
Future vulnerability
Projecting future climate scenarios (From Hewitson group)
Model future extent of occurrence of species (statistical techniques)
Use Multi-Agent Systems to assess species ability to relocate under future climate predictions. Includes Bayesian networks
Future vulnerability (continued)
Explicit identification of uncertainties… – Future climate scenarios – Predictions of species – Habitat distribution– Species ability to adapt (genetic and
behavioural adaptive capacity)
Future vulnerability (continued)
Define coping ranges, threshold limits, and vulnerability using various future climatic and socio-economic variables (using basic statistical techniques)
Identify those species and habitats which are sensitive and non-sensitive to change.
Recommend adaptive biodiversity management practices and policies
Defining Adaptation Options:
Impacts of climate change and reversibilityStrategic planning Identify adaptation options that are site-
specific and vary for different scales.Focus on adaptation options which
increase coping range of spp & habitats
Adaptation options (costs and benefits)not mutually exclusive
Do nothingEncourage biodiversity-friendly land use
between protected areasFacilitated dispersalProtected area realignmentEx-situ conservation
Use Cost-Benefit Analysis and Multi-Criteria Analysis to examine adaptation options
How many species does each option protect?
How robust are the options to different climate and socio-economic conditions?
Adaptation options (continued)
Plan of papers to be published:Climate change impacts on biodiversity in
southern Africa.Adaptation options to climate change in
the biodiversity sector in three different southern African environments
Total Economic Value of biodiversity goods and services in specific case study areas.
Integrative and comparative conclusions
Questions