activities and future works on climate change and water ... · pdf fileactivities and future...

2012. 3. 142012. 3. 14

Activities and Future Works on Climate Change and Water Extremes in Korea

Activities and Future Works on Climate Change Activities and Future Works on Climate Change and Water Extremes in Koreaand Water Extremes in Korea

JapanJapan--ChinaChina--Korea Green Technology ForumKorea Green Technology Forum

DegDeg--Hyo Bae ([email protected])Hyo Bae ([email protected])

Professor, Dept. of Civil & Env. Engrg., Sejong Univ., KoreaProfessor, Dept. of Civil & Env. Engrg., Sejong Univ., Korea

Sejong University, Civil & Environ. Eng., Water Resources &GIS Laboratory

Necessity of this study

Korea has experienced many water-related problems

Sustainable development and climate change

Clean water, etc.

Backgrounds of this studyBackgrounds of this studyBackgrounds of this study

insufficient water supply

flood and drought

river restoration, etc.

Water extremes (flood and drought) are one of the important issues on green growth development

15 Global Challenges of the Millennium Project

<http://www.rakahn.com/millennium/index.html>

<Water & Green Growth>


Flood, drought and green growth technologies

The objectives of this study

To introduce the current activities for the enhancement of flood and drought problems

To suggest and discuss the specific topics for collaborating the researches and technology

Floods & Droughts in Korea

대치 3동

GeumRiver

HanRiver

NakdongRiver

YeongsanRiver

Large National Projects


Currnet Activities on Water Extremes in KoreaCurrnet Activities on Water Extremes in KoreaCurrnet Activities on Water Extremes in KoreaFlood control & management

Flood Control Office

River regime : 170-330 (Europe : 8-30)

Two-thirds of annual precipitation is concentrated on summer season.

River condition : steep slope, short length10-year averaged flood damage

KMA

Numerical Weather Forecasts data

Radar data

Observed Meteorological data

K-Water

Dam outflow

Dam storage level

Ministry of Construction & Transportation

Central Disaster Prevention & Safely Countermeasures Headquarters

Flood Control Office

Announcement and cancellation of flood forecast

To estimate possible outflow at several locations

Announcement to Public Related Agencies Resident in the

Regions


Current flooding causes and their remedies

Abnormal Weather & Climate Change ImpactsAbnormal Weather & Climate Change ImpactsFlood vulnerability analysis, structural and nonstructural adaptation measures

Short Forecast Lead TimeShort Forecast Lead TimeUse of numerical weather forecast information for real-time short-term flood forecast

Urban Flood Damage ReductionUrban Flood Damage ReductionDevelopment of the coupled radar rainfall and urban flooding modeling system

Improvement of the Existing Forecasting ModelsImprovement of the Existing Forecasting ModelsDevelop a state space form of stochastic and dynamic Kalman filtering model for real-time prediction and updating system

Flash Flood Damage ReductionFlash Flood Damage ReductionIn addition to classical forecasting system, develop a new floodforecasting model


RDAPS 48 hours forecast

GDAPS 10 days forecast

Han Basin

Nak Basin

SeomjinBasin

Youngsin Basin

Geum Basin

Threat score

Bias Score : 0.8~0.9Threat Score : 0.4Accuracy : 0.8RMSE : 2mm/12hr

~12hour : underestimate

~48hour : overestimate

~ 24hour : most accurate

Threat Score : 0.7 until 3days

Numerical Weather Prediction at KMA/MOST

Use of Numerical Weather Forecast for RealUse of Numerical Weather Forecast for Real--Time Flood Time Flood ForecastingForecasting

GDAPS for 110×110 and 220×220km

RDAPS for 30×30km (5-km res. Test)

Short-term(48hr), Weekly(48hr-7days), long-term(monthly, seasonal, bi-annual) weather forecast information are provied

Evaluation (date:2003.7.18.00-07.24.12)

Need to increase the spatial resolution from 30 km to 5kmEnhance the numerical weather forecasting accuracy and develop some adjustment techniquesUse of weather radar and satellite data for flood management

OBS 12hr 24hr 48hr


Development of Radar Rainfall & Flood Forecasting System Development of Radar Rainfall & Flood Forecasting System for Urban Watershedsfor Urban Watersheds

Schematic of urban flood forecasting system for Jung-rang watershed

0 10 20 30 40 50Hours. Since 2003.6.11 00:00

0

2

4

6

8

DIS

CH

AR

GE

(cm

s)

Adj.CASE I_DischargeObs. Q(Jung-ranggyo)Sim. from AWSSim. from Radar_Adj.WPMMSim. from Radar_Adj.M&PSim. from Radar_Adj.LSF

048

12Adj.WPMM MAP

121086420

RA

INFA

LL (m

m)AWS MAP

048

12

RA

INFA

LL (m

m)

Adj.M&P MAP

048

12

Adj.Least-Square MAP

Method

Meterorlogical Forecasting ProcessHydrologic Observation ProcessHydrologic Modeling PreocessUrban Flood Frecasting & Warning Process

Major outcomes

To estimate and forecast real-time radar-driven rainfallsTo provide alogrithms for real-time flood forecast

Need to install local dual polarmetric X-band radar

Develop a coupled system between radar-based rainfall forecast and urban flooding system

AWS 1hr Accumulated Rainfall

LSF Radar Rainfall

Key Map 240 km150 km

50 km


Enhancement of Operational Flood Forecasting ModelEnhancement of Operational Flood Forecasting Model

Deterministic continuous flood forecasting model (Sejong Univ. Rainfall Runoff, SURR)

Model applicationNakdong river basins

D01 B01

B02B03

C02C03

안동댐

B04

B05

C06

D02

임하댐

B06

B07

C08

B08

C09

B09

M01

지보

M02

죽전

B11

B10

C11B12

C13

B14

C15C16A

C16B

B16*α

M04낙동

B16*(1-α)

C19

C20

B19

M05

선산

B18

B17

C18

M06왜관

B20

B15

M03

용곡

B22

B23B24

C23C24C21

B25

C26B

C30

B26*(1-α)

M10

죽고

B29

C29

D03

합천댐

B28

B27

C28

M09

개진1

M08현풍

M07

동촌

C26A B26*α

B30

M12진동

C38

D04

남강댐

M11

거룡강C37

B36 C36

B34

C33

B35

B32

C39A

밀양2

C41 B41

B40

B39*α

삼랑진

B39*(1-α)

C39B C42

B42

M15

구포

C43

B21

B31

12

3

456

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1415

16

17

2019

18

27

22

23

24

25 26

29

28

M14

M13

30 31 32

xx Node

Sub-basin

Channel

Dxx Dam site

Mxx Stream f low gaug e C32

B33

B37 B38

B43

B13

21

Verification PeriodSiteREV(%) REPF(%) RMSE(m3/s) ME(-)

Ji-bo -4.40 -3.08 79.40 0.90Yonggok 0.75 -9.48 81.28 0.90Nakdong -0.18 -10.34 144.55 0.97

Wae-gwan -3.50 -14.59 239.89 0.94Dongchon 27.37 -7.45 54.19 0.93

Hyeonpung 0.65 -9.20 201.69 0.98Jindong 13.01 34.71 557.66 0.91

Samrangjin 1.72 4.50 574.39 0.93Andong dam 8.11 9.83 79.33 0.73

Imha dam 11.62 -19.70 52.09 0.89Hapcheon dam 26.96 -14.76 102.05 0.70Namgang dam 9.64 -18.99 372.09 0.75

0 300 600 900 1200 15000

500

1000

1500

2000

Measured QSimulated Q

0 300 600 900 1200 15000

1500

3000

4500

6000

0 300 600 900 1200 15000

500

1000

1500

2000

0 300 600 900 1200 15000

300

600

900

1200

0 300 600 900 1200 15000

400

800

1200

1600

0 300 600 900 1200 15000

500

1000

1500

2000

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s)

Jibo Wae-Gwan Dongchon

Andong Imha Hapcheon

Time(hr)


Stochastic dynamic flood forecasting model (Sejong Univ. River Forecast, SURF)

ㆍㆍㆍn

ㆍㆍㆍn

ㆍㆍㆍn

ㆍㆍㆍn

1itx −− 1

itx +−

itx − i

tx +1

itx −+ 1

itx ++

1 1 1i it t ty y η− − −= +

1ty −

…

i it t ty y η= +

ty…

1 1 1i it t ty y η+ + += +

1ty +

…

1t − t 1t +

Ense

mb

le

mem

bers

of

observ

ati

on

Ens

em

ble

m

em

bers

of

sta

te v

ari

able

1itu − 1

itθ −

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s)

Qobs

Qsim,det

Qsim,sto

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200Time (hr)

0x100

1x105

2x105

CA

E (m

3 /s)

Det.Sto.

Nakdong

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s)

Qobs

Qsim,det

Qsim,sto

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200Time (hr)

0x100

2x105

4x105

CA

E (m

3 /s)

Det.Sto.

Wae-gwan

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s)

Qobs

Qsim,det

Qsim,sto

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400Time (hr)

0x100

5x104

1x105

CA

E (m

3 /s)

Det.Sto.

Nakdong

0

1400

2800

4200

5600

7000

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s)

Qobs

Qsim,det

Qsim,sto

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400Time (hr)

0x100

1x105

2x105

CA

E (m

3 /s)

Det.Sto.

Wae-gwan

Need to couple SURF model with radar-rainfall forecast

Enhancement of SURF considering beam’s effect for 4 major rivers restoration project


Development of Flash Flood Guidance System in KoreaDevelopment of Flash Flood Guidance System in Korea

Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)

RainfallRainfall FFGFFG

Soil Moisture Accounting ModelSoil Moisture Accounting Model

Excess RainfallExcess Rainfall

Routing ModelRouting Model

Flood StageFlood Stage

Threshold RunoffThreshold Runoff

Unit HydrographUnit Hydrograph

QQpeakpeak

>>BankfullBankfull

Peak FlowPeak Flow

SAC, TOPSAC, TOP

Amount of rainfall needed in a specified period of time to initiate flooding on small streams


Radar Rainfall

Need to develop FFG system considering man-made channel and urban drainage network Need to increase accuracy of flash flood forecast Need to combine technology among mesoscale forecast, radar and satellite information

Flash Flood Guidance

Forecast Rainfall

Flash Flood Threat

RDAPS

Satellite

Radar

MeteorologicalComponents

Observation

Hydrologic Components

• Manning’s Bankfull Discharge• Two Years Return Period Flow • Snyder’s Synthetic Unit Hydrograph• GIUH

• Manning’s Bankfull Discharge• Two Years Return Period Flow • Snyder’s Synthetic Unit Hydrograph• GIUH

Estimation of Soil Moisture

• DEM, Landuse, Soilproperties• Natural or Man-made channel• Urban drainage network

Geographical DataThreshold Runoff

THRESHOLD RUNOFF: Runoff neededto raise water level to bankfull stage

Current Water Level

Bankfull Stage

THRESHOLD RUNOFF: Runoff neededto raise water level to bankfull stage

Current Water Level

Bankfull Stage

Rainfall( mm/∆t )

Current Time

Runoff( mm/∆t )

t

Rainfall-RunoffRelationship

RainfallFFG

Run

off

Rainfall-RunoffRelationship

RainfallFFG

Run

off

Compare between FFGand forecasted rainfall

Rainfall Forecast

Flash FloodWatching &

Warning

Compare between FFGand forecasted rainfall

Rainfall ForecastRainfall Forecast

Flash FloodWatching &

WarningFFG Computation

Flash FloodWatching

& Warning

The development of FFG system is essential for mitigation of flood disaster


Drought management and problems in Korea

KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration)

K-Water(Korea Water Resources Corporation)

KRC (Korea Rural Community Corporation)

NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency)

Drought Mornitoring & Management

Information : precipitation, temperature, long-term weather forecast, DDI, SPI, PDSI, PN, Decile

Compute various meteorological drought indices considering precipitation &temperature conditions

Information : MSWSI, Dam Storage Rate, Soil Moisture Index

Develop drought information system with hydrological drought indices (2006yr)

Information : Reservoir Drought Index, Integrated Agricultural Drought Index, Soil Moisture Index

Information : Socioeconomic Drought Index

Provide agriculture drought information on web site

Develop drought disaster info. system and contribute to reduce the drought damages

Insufficient understanding of each agency’s drought tasks

Inconsistent drought information between agencies

Drought monitoring is active, but drought outlook technology is primitiveProb

lem

s


Considerations for real-time drought early warning system development

Construct DB for hydro-meteorological and geographical dataDevelop computation sub-modules for providing drought informationDevelop web-based real-time drought outlook system

Hydrometeorology

Analysis

Drought

Characteristics

Analysis

Field Operation

Drought Mornitoring & Outlook

LongLong--term Weather term Weather ForecastForecast

증발산량

자연유량

토양수분

Development of Drought Monitoring and Outlook Development of Drought Monitoring and Outlook System on East Asia DomainSystem on East Asia Domain

Develop land surface model in East Asia domainSpatial interactions analysis for drought phenomena within the domainContinental-scale drought outlook information in the domain

Generate high quality long-term weather forecast Interactions between atmosphere and hydrology simulation


System structure & main information

Generate drought monitoring & outlook information by combining meteorological & hydrologic data

System Login & Main Page

Need to increase ensemble members for long-term weather forecastDevelop a real-time drought outlook evaluation method Improve the accuracy of drought oulook

Drought conditions are provided before & after 3 months on everyday

Meteorological Data

ASOS, AWS, GTS, United Model

PRCP Max Temp Min Temp Windspeed

지형자료

DEM

LanduseSoil Properties

Land Surface Model Drought Index Model

Runoff

HydrologicalInformation

Soil Moisture

Evapotranspiration

동아시아 및 한반도입력자료로 전환

Geographical Data

Missing & Error Data Quality Control

Convert the Input Data for East Asia & Korea

HydrologicalDrought Information

SRI

MeteorologicalDrought Information

SSI

Natural Drought Index

DDI

SPI(6)

SPI(3)

PDSI


Analysis & estimation of recent heavy rainfall characteristics

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 960

20

40

60

80

100

Rai

nfal

l(mm

)

0

160

320

480

640

800 Accum

ulatedR

ainfall(mm

)

RainfallAccumulated Rainfall

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Time (hr)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Rai

nfal

l(mm

)

0

160

320

480

640

800 Accum

ulated Rainfall(m

m)


0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Time (hr)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Rai

nfal

l(mm

)

0

100

200

300

400

500 Accum

ulatedR

ainfall(mm

)


0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Time (hr)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Rai

nfal

l(mm

)

0

100

200

300

400

500 Accum

ulated Rainfall(m

m)


Seoul : 286mm

Kangseo : 315mm

Seoul : 578mm

Kwanak : 493mm

2010 & 2011year heavy rainfall status

YearYear Rainy daysRainy days(Rate, %)(Rate, %)

Rainfall amountRainfall amount(mm)(mm)

2001 33 days ( - ) 981.1 mm

2010 56 day (69.70) 1394.6 mm

2011 47 day(42.42) 1640.1 mm

YearYear 33--hr max rainfall hr max rainfall regionregion

33--hr min rainfall hr min rainfall regionregion

2001 213.0 mm 155.0 mm

2010 198.5 mm 78.0 mm

2011 202.0 mm 100.0 mm

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

서울

강북

강동

서초

관악

구로

은평

0

1000

2000

0

1000

2000

0

1000

2000

0

1000

2000

0

1000

2000

0

1000

2000

0

1000

2000

Amount of Rainfall for Flood Season

2001yr2010yr2011yr

Current Abnormal Weather & Climate ChangeCurrent Abnormal Weather & Climate ChangeCurrent Abnormal Weather & Climate Change

Increase of rainy days Increase of rainfall amount

Increased 3-hr rainfallRemarks

higher spatial rainfall difference among regions


Downscaling Method (RegCM3, Sub-bats)

Climate Projection (ECHO-G/S)

Bias Correction

Frequency analysis

Estimation of Design Rainfall

Selection of emission scenarios (A2) D(duration, min)D(duration, min)Return Return Period(yr)Period(yr) 6060 180180 240240 360360 720720 14401440

10 76.5 142.5 157.5 182.6 223 282.7

30 93.5 176.7 195.6 225.4 273.9 354.5

50 101.2 192.3 212.9 245.0 297.2 387.3

80 108.3 206.6 228.8 262.9 318.5 417.3

100 111.7 213.3 236.3 271.3 328.6 431.5

S0S0

200 122.1 234.3 259.7 297.6 359.8 475.5

10 95.9 179.9 183.4 195.7 251.7 407.6

30 121.7 232.7 230.9 242.5 314.2 539.1

50 133.5 147.8 252.4 263.9 342.8 599.5

80 144.2 271.3 272.2 283.5 369.0 654.7

100 149.4 280.8 283.3 292.7 381.4 681.0

S1S1

200 165.3 310.5 310.8 321.4 419.7 762.3

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6Reduced Variate

0

100

200

300

400

500

Rai

ndep

th(m

m)

3H Rainfall Freq. AnalysisS0:1971-2000S1:2011-2040S2:2041-2070S3:2071-2100

S0 S1• In 60min design rainfall, 30-year return period of S0

is similar to 10-year return period design rainfall of S1 period.•In 240, 360min design rainfall, 100-year return period of S0 is similar to 50-year return period design rainfall of S1 period.

Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water ExtremesClimate Change Impact Assessment on Water Extremes

Future design rainfall analysis using high resolution climate change scenariosMethodology

Produce 5x5 km climate scenario using RegCM3 and Sub-bats algorismPerform future design rainfall analysis after bias correction of climate scenario


Develop our own urban flood design method through domestic and

international case studies

Re-evaluate urban design rainfall & discharge computation

Perform the flood risk assessment & optimal allocation for design flood

Develop a flash flood forecasting technology in Seoul

Mannual for urban drainage system management considering climateMannual for urban drainage system management considering climate changechange

Operation of the Urban Experimental Basin

< Urban Experimental Basin : Junrang river>

The main measure for flood prevention in Seoul


Future Works & Collaborations on Water Extreme

Future Works & Collaborations on Water Future Works & Collaborations on Water ExtremeExtreme

Activities & Experiences

Storm

Needs Requirements

WaterExtreme

FloodFlood

DroughtDrought

ClimateClimateChangeChange

Share the predicted storm path information

Share the design method of flood control structures

Share the long-term weather data & drought index

Share drought outlook in East Asia

Share the AR5 high resolution climate change scenarios & hydrologic results Promote joint project on climate change adaptation strategies

Future Works & Collaborations

Share the technology of radar rainfall estimation


모전교 오간수교 무학교고산자교

계획홍수위(2.57m)

위험홍수위(2.11m)

허리 높이(1.86m)

경계홍수위(1.78m)

무릎 높이(1.36m)

산책로(0.86m)

Flood control & management

Nonstructural MeasuresNonstructural MeasuresShare the predicted storm

path information

Development of urban flash flood Guidance (FFG)

Structural MeasuresStructural Measures

Share the technology of radar rainfall estimation

Share the design technologies of flood control structures

CountryCountry PurposesPurposes SpecificationsSpecifications

Wadayayoi,Japan

(Main) D8.5mX2.2km(Branch) D3.0mX4.7km

Seoul, Korea

Improve water qualityMitigate flood risk (Main) D 3.5m X 2.0km

Before After


Drought control & management

DEM

Landuse

Soil

InternetNetwork

IntranetDatabase WebModel Process

External Network

Server

SPI

SRI

SSI

PDSI

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Time(Month)

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

PN(%

)

KyungGiKangwonChungCheongCheonNamKyungSang

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Time(Month)

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

PN(%

)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Time(Month)

0

30

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90

120

150

180

PN(%

)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Time(Month)

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

PN(%

)


Report

CRED

AWCI

LSM1

LSM2

LSM3

LSMn

t

t

t

t

Korea

China

Japan

GCM1

GCM2

GCM3

GCM13

RCM

Sharing the Observation Data

Domain for Drought Estimation

Need to develop a technology for hydro-meteorological & drought outlook in East Asia domain through collaboration of 3 countries

Drought occurs progressively, but damage scale is extensive in comparison with flood


Future works on Climate Change

Sharing the high resolution climate change scenarios and their hydorologic results

Performing joint projects on climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies in tri-countries

Sharing the ideas for design rainfall and their hydrologic analysis

To develop the adaptation technique for water resource fields


Thank youThank you

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