acucar guarani q3 09/10 earnings presentation
DESCRIPTION
Acucar Guarani Q2 09/10 earnings presentationTRANSCRIPT
Q3 09/10 ResultsFebruary 12th, 2010
This presentation contains forward-looking statements related to the prospects of our business and estimates foroperating and financial results. Those related to growth prospects of Açúcar Guarani S.A. are merely projections and,as such, based exclusively on the expectations of the management concerning the future of the business. Suchforward-looking statements depend substantially on changes in market conditions, government regulations,competitive pressures, the performance of the Brazilian and international economies and the industry and aretherefore subject to change without prior notice.
Disclaimer
� Record 9M Net Revenues: +14.3% (+1.3% quarter-on-quarter) on higher sugar and ethanol prices
� Adjusted EBITDA: +8.2% (YTD basis) to R$208.3 million
� Brazilian operation with a 23.8% Adjusted EBITDA margin in 9M and 30.1% in Q3 09/10
� Net profit of R$15.7 million
� R$ 80.3 million Net Profit in Brazilian operations
� R$ 64.6 million loss in Mozambique (lower production and currency depreciation)
Key Financial HighlightsStrong overall performance, impacted by drop in Mozambique
� Net debt at R$1.1 billion: decrease of 12.8% compared to the same period last year
� Positive outlook
� Domestic prices
� Higher sugar production
� Increase of cogeneration
� Higher own sugarcane
3
Key Financial HighlightsStrong overall performance, impacted by drop in Mozambique
R$ Million
Q3 YTD YTD Brazil1
09/10 08/09 09/10 08/09 09/10 08/09
Revenues 363.8 359.1 970.7 849.2 928.9 802.4
Adjusted EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
93.525.7%
116.032.3%
208.321.5%
192.522.7%
220.723.8%
174.421.7%
4
Note: (1) ex-Mozambican operations
EBITDA Margin 25.7% 32.3% 21.5% 22.7% 23.8% 21.7%
Net Income
Net Margin
1.8
0.5%
(113.0)
-31.5%
15.7
1.6%
(241.4)
-28.4%
80.3
8.6%
(240.1)
-29.9%
CAPEX 44.3 37.1 109.3 183.2 87.5 177.4
Net Debt 1,101.5 1,263.0 1,101.5 1,263.0 935.1 1,124.5
� World sugar prices at their highest levels in 28 years
� Strong sugar prices, supported by forecasts of a continued imbalance between world supply and demand and byreduced inventory levels
� poor crop in India and eastern Africa (Mozambique)
� rains in Brazil, with reduced sugar content on sugarcane
� Domestic prices higher than international prices due to lower than expected Brazilian production of white/refined sugar
� Increase in Brazilian exports, with India as main destination
Key Business Highlights – Q3 09/10 Sugar Market OverviewStrong world prices and growth in Brazilian exports
Guarani’s Sugar Prices (R$/ton)
5
Prices (R$/ton)
Note: Actual average price net of taxes
400
600
800
1000Q
1 0
7/0
8
Q2
07
/08
Q3
07
/08
Q4
07
/08
Q1
08
/09
Q2
08
/09
Q3
08
/09
Q4
08
/09
Q1
09
/10
Q2
09
/10
Q3
09
/10
Key Business Highlights – Q3 09/10 Ethanol Market OverviewHigher prices and strong domestic demand during the year
� Significant appreciation of ethanol prices due to lower product output
� Continued growth in domestic consumption, supported mainly by the growth of the flex fuel fleet and strong car sales
� Limited impact of the 20% reduced blending (300,000 m³)
� Price increases in all other major markets, such as US and European Union
Guarani’s Ethanol Prices (R$/m³
6
Prices (R$/m³)
Note: Actual average price net of taxes
400
600
800
1000Q
1 0
7/0
8
Q2
07
/08
Q3
07
/08
Q4
07
/08
Q1
08
/09
Q2
08
/09
Q3
08
/09
Q4
08
/09
Q1
09
/10
Q2
09
/10
Q3
09
/10
Sugarcane Crushed (MM t) 9M 09/10
Sugarcane Crushed (MM t) Q3 09/10
� Sugarcane crushing reduced by 2.2% in 9M 09/10, mainly due to:
� Drought in Mozambique, resulting in 0.2 million tons less sugarcane crushed
� Heavy rains in Brazil resulting in 0.1 million tons less sugarcane crushed
� Current production of TRS reduced by 11.0% compared to 9M 08/09, mainly due to a decrease of 6.6% in the sugar contentmeasured in TRS, although yields have increased by 14.8% to 93 ton/ha
� Sugarcane from 3rd parties represented 72.5% of the total crushing in 9M 09/10
� Sugarcane processing to resume on March, 2010 on three of Guarani industrial plants
Sugarcane CrushingHeavy rains in Brazil and drought in Mozambique
4.1 3.9
10.3 10.2
9M 08/09 9M 09/10Own 3rd Party
14.114.4
1.51.0
2.73.1
Q3 08/09 Q3 09/10Own 3rd Party
4.14.2
9M 09/10 Q3 09/10
7
� Sugar production fell by 15.2% in 9M 09/10 impacted by lower sugar content (TRS) in the sugarcane, while ethanol reduced by4.8%
� Priority on crystal and refined sugar due to higher margins. Refining operations to continue during the inter-crop
� Mix with 56% sugar and 44% ethanol
� Increase of own sugarcane for next crop
Sugar and Ethanol ProductionImpact of poor sugar content on sugarcane due to rainfalls
Sugar Production (’000 t) 9M 09/10
Ethanol Production (’000 m³) 9M 09/10
8
9M 09/10 9M 09/10
111 117
385 355
9M 08/09 9M 09/10Anhydrous Hydrous
472496
493 455
512453
149
71
9M 08/09 9M 09/10Ref ined Crystal VHP
1,154979
Net RevenuesRecord YoY net revenues driven by higher prices
� Net revenues rose 14.3% to R$970.7 million in 9M 09/10 and 1.3% to R$363.8 million in Q3 09/10
� Sugar revenues rose by 10.2% in Q3 09/10 with a 35.2% price increase and a 18.5% volume decrease
� Ethanol revenues increased by 17.7% in Q3 09/10 with a 21.0% price increase to R$916.3/m³
� Focus on domestic market to benefit from higher prices:
� Sugar: 64.7% domestic market and 35.3% export
� Ethanol: 95.1% domestic market and 4.9% export
Net Revenues (R$ MM) Q3 09/10
Net Revenues (R$ MM) 9M 09/10
9
Q3 09/109M 09/10
504632
27227173
67
9M 08/09 9M 09/10Sugar Ethanol Others
849971
245 240
93 11022 14
Q3 08/09 Q3 09/10
Sugar Ethanol Others
359 364
Adjusted EBITDAImpacted by higher prices in Brazil and lower operations in Mozambique
� Adjusted EBITDA: R$93.5 million and 25.7% Adjusted EBITDA margin in Q3 09/10 vs. 32.3% in Q3 08/09:
� In Brazil: Positive impact of higher prices and reduced costs of own sugarcane, offset by increased thirdparty sugarcane costs based on CONSECANA and lower sugar content. Adjusted EBITDA Margin of30.1%
� In Mozambique: -R$9.8 million Adjusted EBITDA, affected by reduced volume of crushed sugarcane
� In Q3 09/10, negative hedging effect of R$15.0 million vs. a positive R$12.9 million in Q3 08/09, due to highersugar prices
� YTD basis: R$208.3 million Adjusted EBITDA and 21.5% margin
� For Brazilian operations alone, Adjusted EBITDA of R$220.7 million and 23.8% Adjusted EBITDA margin
Adjusted EBITDA (R$ MM) 9M 09/10
10
9M 09/10
174.3220.7
18.2
(12.4)
22.7%21.5%
1,0%
3,0%
5,0%
7,0%
9,0%
11,0%
13,0%
15,0%
17,0%
19,0%
21,0%
23,0%
25,0%
-20,0
30,0
80,0
130,0
180,0
230,0
280,0
9M 08/09 9M 09/10
Brasil Moçambique Margem EBITDA Ajustado
Net ResultsReturn to net profit despite loss in Mozambique
Net Profit (R$ MM) Q3 and 9M 09/10
� YTD net profit of R$15.7 million vs. net loss of R$241.4 million in 9M 08/09, including R$80.3 million profit in Brazil
Offset by:
� Net loss in Mozambique of R$64.6 million caused by reduction in production and non-cash currency depreciation
(39.9)(64.6)
41.7 80.3
Q3 09/10 9M 09/10
Mozambique Brazil
11
Consolidated Net
Profit
R$15.7 million
Q3 and 9M 09/10
R$1.8 million
Net DebtAt R$ 1.1 billion
� Net debt of R$1.1 billion as of December, 2009 representing 2.4% increase over previous quarter due to:
� Higher working capital reflecting Guarani’s normal business cycle to increase inventories
� Net debt/Adjusted EBITDA ratio stood at 4.5x on December, 2009 vs. 4.0x on September, 2009 due to seasonality of thebusiness
� Short-term debt represented 55.4% of total net debt (excluding intercompany loans)
� Debt in foreign currencies totaled R$758.4 million, equivalent to 68.9% of total net debt
� Effective average interest rate in Q3 09/10 of 7.7%
Net Debt per Currency Net Debt per Term
12
Net Debt per Currency
Foreign Currency
69%
BRL31%
Net Debt per Term
Current55%
Non-Current
45%
Note: Includes debt related to SHL in Mozambique Note: Excludes intercompany loans. Net of cash & cash equivalents
… to take advantage of higher sugar prices:
� Increase of Tanabi’s crushing capacity from 1.4 million tons during this crop to 1.7 million tons for next crop and anew sugar factory to allow the plant to produce 100,000 tons of sugar
� São José plant to increase capacity to 3.2 million tons of sugarcane crushed with a 50,000 tons increase in sugarproduction. Expected growth in energy sold to the grid
CAPEXIncreased sugarcane crushing and sugar production capacity
� Increase of mechanical harvesting and planting capacity as well as to improve field yields
� Increase of plantation area in Mozambique and irrigation to ensure sugarcane availability
� Cogeneration in Andrade plant
13
� Total renovation of sugarcane fields by 2011/12 (15,900 ha)
� Extension of irrigation to a further 5,000 ha (total of 10,000 ha in 2012)
� 1,500 ha in 2010
� 1,600 ha in 2011
� 1,900 ha in 2012
� Refinancing of debts in 2010 to restructure current financing in
MozambiqueInvesting to increase yields
� Refinancing of debts in 2010 to restructure current financing inSouth African Rand
14
Sugar Market OutlookPrices supported by decrease in production and lower yields
� Global demand may exceed production by 6 million tons in this world crop
� Historically high prices to remain at least for 18 to 24 months
� Future sugar prices to be adjusted according to weather at the start of the Brazilian crop and the next Indian crop startingin October, 2010
� Good prospects for white sugar prices with the expectation of a significant deficit both for refined and crystal sugars
World Sugar BalanceRaw Sugar Prices (NY 11)
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
8
12
16
20
24
28
01
-Ap
r-0
8
01
-Ju
l-0
8
01
-Oct-
08
01
-Ja
n-0
9
01
-Ap
r-0
9
01
-Ju
l-0
9
01
-Oct-
09
01
-Ja
n-1
0
ce
nts
R$
/lb
ce
nts
US
$/lb
cents US$/lb cents R$/lb
Q209 Q110Q109 Q309 Q409
Source: ICE
Q310Q210
15
World Sugar BalanceRaw Sugar Prices (NY 11)
100
120
140
160
180
30
40
50
60
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01
/02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
E Pro
du
cti
on
/Co
ns
um
pti
on
(M
M t
on
)
Inv
en
tori
es
(M
M t
on
)
Inventories Production Consumption
Source: LMC
Ethanol Market OutlookStrong consumption and prices expected for Q4 09/10 and next crop
Domestic market:
� Ethanol prices supported by lower stocks than in previous crop
� Strong flex fuel vehicle sales – currently 85% of all vehicle sold – will be a key driver for ethanol consumption growth
International market:
� Higher prices in US and EU suggest a possible window for Brazilian exports from the beginning of next crop
� Although world production has increased, supply will struggle to meet demand because of record sugar prices that favoursugar production
Vehicles Sales per Fuel Type Hydrous and Anhydrous Ethanol Prices (SP State)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Ap
r-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Oct-
08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Oct-
09
'00
0 u
nit
s
Ethanol + Flex-Fuel Gas + Diesel
Q209 Q110Q109 Q309 Q409
Source: Anfavea
Q210 Q310
0,55
0,65
0,75
0,85
0,95
1,05
1,15
1,25
01
-Ap
r-0
8
01
-Ju
l-0
8
01
-Oct-
08
01
-Ja
n-0
9
01
-Ap
r-0
9
01
-Ju
l-0
9
01
-Oct-
09
01
-Ja
n-1
0
R$
/lit
er
Hydrous Anhydrous
Q209 Q110Q109 Q309 Q409
Source: Esalq
Q210 Q310
16
(Brazil)Prices (SP State)
OutlookGuarani well positioned to seize market opportunities…
… and benefit from the positive market scenario:
� Positive scenario for sugar prices for the 2010/11 crop due to higher demand than supply
� Positive scenario for ethanol prices in Q4 09/10 due to lower supply and strong demand in Brazil. Prices fornext crop expected to be more stable, with more sugarcane derived to sugar production
17
� Increased volumes of own sugarcane
� Support from controlling shareholder Tereos for growth strategy
Thank You!
� phone: +55 (11) 3544-4900
� e-mail: [email protected]
� website: www.acucarguarani.com.br/ir
� Jacyr S. Costa FilhoCEO
� Reynaldo F. BenitezCFO and Investor Relations Officer
� Alexandre L. MenezioInvestor Relations Manager
� Felipe F. MendesInvestor Relations Analyst
� Renato N. Zanetti NetoInvestor Relations Analyst