adapta tion to climate ch ange and the worl d bank

Adaptation to tion to Climate Change and ange and

the World Bankd Bank

Adaptation to tion to Climate Change and ange and

the World Bankd Bank

Ian Noble Ian Noble

The poor will face the greatest challenges from climate change.

0%

20%

40%

60%

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100%

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Pe

rce

nta

ge

aff

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LDC

Dev'ing

CIT

Dev'ed

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1,000

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1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Nu

mb

er

aff

ec

ted

(M

illio

ns

)

Dev'ed

CIT

Dev'ing

LDC

2 Billion people in developing countries affected by a climate related disaster in the 1990s.

Double in the 2000s?

40 to 80% of the population in developing countries versus a few % in more developed countries

Guidance for TNA

Identify vulnerable sectorsIdentify vulnerable sectors

Prioritise the Prioritise the list of measureslist of measures

Compile list of measuresCompile list of measures

PrioritisePrioritise

Developing

Country

Development decision

Other Lenders

& Donors

World Bank

Local social, economic, environmental and political

pressures

Climate Climate ChangeChange

Most development decisions

Investment flow

Billions $ "invested" in developing countries annually

0 50 100 150 200 250

Private

ODA

WB

IDA

Mitigation

Adaptation

0 2 4 6 8 10

UN

FC

CC

U

NF

CC

C

Climate change is already affecting natural and social systems

Messages to my Bank Messages to my Bank colleaguescolleagues

And is relevant to project planning

Implicit: “And your project could be next!”

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year

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rainfall variability

GDP growth

Ag GDP growth

EthiopiaA water rich developing country, but

with GDP still tied to yearly

rainfall variations

Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia

From Claudia Sadoff

Climate variability is already a major impediment to development.

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GDP Growth rate Ag GDP Non-Ag GDP

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ates

Smoothed

Drought

Variability

Model of 12 years of growth using

•Smoothed (average rainfall)

•A simulated 2-year drought

•Realistic variability

Including climate variability gives a different picture of growth prospects

Ethiopia

1%1%

GDP Growth w/Smoothed Rainfall

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1

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Base Irrig. Roads Irri&Roads

An

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row

th

GDP grow th rate

Ag GDP grow th rate

NAg GDP grow th rate

GDP Growth w/Variable Rainfall

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Base Irrig. Roads Irri&RoadsA

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ual

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wth

GDP grow th rate

Ag GDP grow th rate

NAg GDP grow th rate

EthiopiaUsing variable rainfall gives a more

balanced outcome for investments in irrigation versus roads

Climate change is a development issue – right nowright now

Should we use the term “climate

proofing”?

A climate risk approachClimate risk management means that the

Bank should assess,

and where necessary act upon,

the threats and opportunities that result from

both existing and future climate variability,

including those deriving from climate change,

in all project and country level activities.

Sub text: Climate volatility is Sub text: Climate volatility is another factor that must be another factor that must be

taken into account in taken into account in development planningdevelopment planning

How are we going?

Currently only

17 out of 73 CASs and

4 out of 35 completed PRSPs

refer to the potential effects of climate change.

Of the 17 CASs only 8 have a clear statement about adaptation

Pitfalls• “Projectisation” of adaptation

– Separates adaptation form core development planning

– Often embroils adaptation in institutional rivalries

• Not appreciating the immediacy• Endless loop of “better

information”– Downscaling & impact modelling

• Seeking the ideal at the expense of the pragmatic– E.g. Seeking only ‘adaptation with mitigation’

synergies

Next steps

• Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries

• Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation

• Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA

Next steps

• Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries– Simple screening tool– Readily available tools for ‘downscaling’ and impact

assessment– Linking the biophysical and the socio-economic

analyses



Structure of AP Analysis

Hydrological data

Meteorological data

Agricultural data

Agro-meteorological model

Crop yield and production, livestock losses model

Drought mitigation strategies

Probabilistic drought risk assessment model

Direct agricultural loss estimates

Macro Economic analysis

Direct and indirect

economic losses

State fiscal exposure

Risk financing arrangements

Rainfall simulator

Climate change scenarios

Planting areas model

Hydrological model

Integrated Tool

Next steps


• Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation– Effective use of GEF resources– These are critical “pump priming” funds


Next steps



• Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as Country Assistance Strategies (CASs) and PRSPs– Approach with caution– Let’s provide the “carrots” first (e.g. the tools etc)

before appearing to threaten with a “stick”

Next steps




Ultimately climate volatility should be treated as other volatilities (commodity prices, exchange rates, social volatilities etc) in development planning

A Screening & Design Tool A Screening & Design Tool for Considering Adaptation to for Considering Adaptation to

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Screening & design tool

• Target Audience: Project developers (national, bilateral and multilateral) and assessors; NGOs

• Not community level decision making– This is a different, and

critically important task– Seek compatibility and

synergies

Contact Ian Noble World Bank [email protected]

• Purpose: Provide a first, quick check of potential issues that might arise in project design or implementation

• Provide a lead into appropriate knowledge & experience

• Increase awareness of the issues of climate variability and change

Screening & design tool

• Levels of advice provided– Red flagRed flag – adaptation

issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended

– Yellow flag Yellow flag – some concerns, which should be checked

– Orange Orange – Not enough known to assess

– Green flagGreen flag – No adaptation issues foreseen

– Blue flagBlue flag – Positive action for adaptation

Contact Ian Noble World Bank [email protected]

• Based on existing knowledge

• Captured via expert systems to identify key activities that might be sensitive to climate variability & change

• Qualitative climate change data based combining models and current trends

• Qualitative assessment of risks and opportunities

• Pointers to appropriate literature, projects, tolls and experts

A framework for a screening & design tool

User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation

options

What do project managers need?



options

Good Practice

Interpretation

Bring together the expanding database of information

Additional tools

Document database

Project database Experts



options

Provide a screening tool to guide user to appropriate material

Additional tools

Document database


Risk elements

&Location

Direction of climate change

(increase, no change, decrease, unknown)

Activities

Climate sensitivi

ty

Climate paramete

r

(eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc)

Climate sensitivity for an

activity

Climate paramet

erLo

cati

on

Projected direction of

climate change

Technical complexity –

Multiple models – changing

data bases



options

Based on best expert advice?

Additional tools

Document database


Risk elements

&Location



Activities

Climate sensitivi

ty

Climate paramete

r



activity

Climate paramet

erLo

cati

on


climate change

Selected scenarios

and current trends

Expert assessment of

relevant activities

Expert ass

essment o

f

sensit

ivities



options

What does the user see?

Additional tools

Document database


Risk elements

&Location



Activities

Climate sensitivi

ty

Climate paramete

r



activity

Climate paramet

erLo

cati

on


climate change

Relevant Relevant guidance guidance to …to …

gdfsgfd

gdfsgfd

gdfsgfd

gdfsgfd

Leading to …

A series of questions

about their

project

Tool fo

r A

dap

tati

on t

o C

limate

Ch

an

ge

TA

CC

Help about the question and about

each option

Ability to change

ones mind

Users are asked to identify the location of their project.

This can either be via lat-long coordinates or pointing to a map

The underlying climate change data base will be based on expert assessment of the various models and of recent trends.

A composite map representing climate change for each variable over the next 20 to 30 years will be prepared.

RptClim

Climate SummaryAnnual rainfall

Rainfall variability

Annual temperature

To be added

To be added

RptOutC Flag Activity Code

We have identified the following activities in your project that may be sensitive to climate change: Explanation

Fla

g if

clim

ate

chan

ge

grea

ter

than

cur

rent

ly

Be

st P

roje

ctio

n

Fla

g if

clim

ate

chan

ge le

ss

than

cur

ren

tly p

roje

cted

R

A_AS_Seas planting seasonal crops, fruit, vegetables or herbs.

The rainfall is expected to change in either amount or variability at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate. ..... Higher temperatures are expected at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate.

R R Y

RA_ir_Tank construction of earthen dams or

tanks.Your project site is projected to have increased rainfall and/or increased rainfall variability. Ensure that the design of the check dams and or eathern dams (tanks) will cope with heavier flows of water.

R R Y

Y

A_ir_drip drip irrigation. Your project site is projected to have significantly increased rainfall variability. This could lead to extended dry spells. Drip irrigation is a very valuable coping mechanism, but note that if water supplies fail, then extended periods without use can lead to deterioration and blockage of the drip system. Discuss appropriate designs with irrigation engineers.

Y Y G

Y

A_ir_flood flood irrigation. You are planning flood irrigation, but temperatures are projected to increase significantly at your project site. The higher temperatures will increase evaporative losses and probably demand for water by the crops. Reconsider more efficient irrigation systems such as drip or sprinkler.

Y Y Y

Y

A_ir_ShallowWell construction of shallow ground wells. Your project site is projected to have decreased rainfall and/or increased rainfall variability. This may reduce recharge rates to shallow wells. You should take this into account in considering whether more shallow wells are justified within the region.

Y Y G

Project

Run Northern Regions Version 2

No significant change in annual rainfall is expected

Rainfall variability is expected to increase moderately This will result in more frequent periods of unusually wet or dry conditions.

Annual mean temperatures are expected to increase moderately (e.g. by 0.5 to 1 °C by 2050).

NOTE: The coding to identify the location and best climate projections has NOT yet been implemented in this prototype.Summary of climate projections for your site ...

Indian Agricultural Reconstruction

Printed summary

Y A_ir_drip drip irrigation.

Your project site is projected to have significantly increased rainfall variability. This could lead to extended dry spells. Drip irrigation is a very valuable coping mechanism, but note that if water supplies fail, then extended periods without use can lead to deterioration and blockage of the drip system. Discuss appropriate designs with irrigation engineers.

Author & Date Source Title Summary Location37 Srivastava, R.C. and

Upadhayaya, A. 1998Agricultural Water Management, Vol. 36Pp: 71-83

Study on Feasibility of Drip Irrigation in Shallow Groundwater Zones of Eastern India

The authors discuss some factors affecting the economics of drip irrigation in plain areas of Eastern India with good quality groundwater at shallow depths. They found that no criteria were being used for drip irrigation in this area, other than subsidy and interest on part of the farmer. Through a study of sugarcane, they identified yield grain ratio, electricity charges, irrigation requirement and depth of groundwater as important factors affecting application method.

.\KB - Sci lit India\Feasibility_drip_irrigation_SrivastavaRC&UpadhayayaA_AgWaterMngmnt_Vol36_Issue1_1998.pdf

Y A_ir_flood flood irrigation.

You are planning flood irrigation, but temperatures are projected to increase significantly at your project site. The higher temperatures will increase evaporative losses and probably demand for water by the crops. Reconsider more efficient irrigation systems such as drip or sprinkler.

Author & Date Source Title Summary Location3 Goyal, R.K. 2004 Agricultural Water

Management, Vol. 69. Pp. 1-11Sensitivity of Evapotransipiration to Global Warming: A Case Study of Arid Zone of Rajasthan

The author studied the effects of change in temperature, solar radiation, windspeed and vapor pressure on evapotranspiration in arid areas of Rajasthan. Based on the research, he suggests roughly a 14% increase in total ET demand with a 20% increase in temperature. Evapotranspiration seemed to be less sensitive, however, to net changes in solar radiation, windspeed, and vapor pressure.

.\KB - Sci lit India\Sensitivity_evapotranspiration_global_warming_Rajasthan_GoyalRK_AgWtrManmt_69_2004.pdf

57 Hillel, D. 2000 World Bank No. 20842Pgs: 92

Salinity Management for Sustainable Irrigation: Integrating Science, Environment and Economics

This report discusses the ways in which poor irrigation and drainage practices can result in waterlogging and salinity. It looks at salinity control and waterlogging reduction as well as at early warning systems that can detect incipient land degradation. The paper emphasizes that irrigation can only be sustainable when used in the proper circumstances with appropriate measures.

.\KB - General\Salinity_management_irrigation_Hillel_WB_20842_2000.pdf

YA_ir_ShallowWell

construction of shallow ground wells.

Your project site is projected to have decreased rainfall and/or increased rainfall variability. This may reduce recharge rates to shallow wells. You should take this into account in considering whether more shallow wells are justified within the region.

Author & Date Source Title Summary Location4 Shah, T. and Raju,

K.V. 2001Water Policy, Vol. 3. Pp. 521-536.

Rethinking Rehabilitation: Socio-ecology of Tanks in Rajasthan

Regarding plans to rehabilitate 1200 large tanks in Rajasthan, the authors believe a change in thinking is required from viewing tanks as irrigation structures to seeing them as multi-use socio-ecological constructs. In recognizing various stakeholder groups, their social value is likely to increase.

.\KB - Sci lit India\Rethinking_tank_rehabilitation_ShahT&RajuKV_WaterPolicy_3_2001.pdf

5 Sharma, A. 2003 International Water management Institute (IWMI), Working Paper 62.Pgs: 16

Revitalizing Irrigation Tanks: Empirical Findings from Ananthapur District, Andhra Pradesh

The study assesses the reasons behind the decline of tank irrigation in Andhra Pradesh. The author claims that most current tank irrigation projects – including those carried out by the World Bank – are promoting a culture of community-based management that diverges from traditional, historic patterns of tank use. He believes that innovative ideas and solutions need to be considered, and that tanks should be viewed as more than flow irrigation structures.

.\KB - Sci lit India\Revitalizing_irrigation_tanks_SharmaA_IWMI_WorkingPaper_62.pdf

19 Selvarajan, S. 2001 Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)Pgs: 7

Sustaining India's Irrigation Infrastructure

This paper provides a brief overview of the status of canal, tank and groundwater irrigation in India. The author claims that the deterioration of irrigation infrastructure can be improved through stakeholder participation and institutional development.

.\KB - General\Sustaining_India_irrigation_infrastructure_ICAR_PolicyBrief15_2001.pdf

24 Sakurai, T. and Palanisami, K. 2001

Agricultural Economics, Vol. 25Pp: 273-283

Tank Irrigation Management as a Local Common Property: the Case of Tamil Nadu, India

This study uses twelve sample villages in Tamil Nadu to compare the efficiency of rice production between tank irrigation and well irrigation systems, and thus arrive at an appropriate management scheme for water. The analysis indicates that producers will use a combination of both tanks and wells, in evolutionary-stable equilibrium, rather than predominantly use one or the other.

.\KB - Sci lit India\Tank_irrigation_managament_SakuraiT&PalanisamiK_AgricEconomics_2001.pdf

Printed list of

documents

Most documents can be displayed

from the Tool

An identified climate

sensitive activity – yellow

flag

An explanation of the rating Useful

documents

R A_AS_Seas

planting seasonal crops, fruit, vegetables or herbs.

The rainfall is expected to change in either amount or variability at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate. ..... Higher temperatures are expected at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate.

Author & Date Source Title Summary Location48 World Bank 2004 Project performance

Assessment ReportNo. 29124

Uttar Pradesh Sodic Lands Reclamation Project

The project carried out large-scale reclamation of sodic soils, thereby increasing returns to many small and marginal farmers. Large tracts of agricultural land in the command areas of major canals had become increasingly waterlogged, saline, and alkaline over time. Through provision of effective drainage networks, improved foodgrain and salt-tolerant horticulture production techniques, and land tenure security as an incentive to farmers to participate, the project was able to surpass its physical targets. However, the project faced problems in implementation, partly due to institutional constraints. For various reasons, the project is not likely to be sustainable.

.\KB - WB India\Uttar_Pradesh_sodic_soils_AssmtReprt29124_WB_04.pdf

Simple Expert System

Simple Expert System

The tool is being designed and implemented initially in Excel.

It has a number of tools to help users to expand or modify the knowledge base.

Later it will be converted to a web-based script.

The tool and many of the documents will fit on a CD

Adaptation in the Bank

• Climate change is already a threat to development

• A risk management approach (tackle current climate variability and climate change)

• Learn through pilots and ESW• Develop good practice guidance

and tools for project designers• Goal to treat climate volatility as

an essential part of development planning

adapta tion to climate ch ange and the worl d bank

Documents

climate volatility

future climate variability

term climate proofing

climate related disaster

planning tools

roadsclimate change

project managers

project planning