Adapting to climate change: lessons from the Peruvian

pelagic fishery

Milena Arias SchreiberMiguel Ñiquen CarranzaMarilú Bouchon Corrales

Peruvian pelagic fishery• almost 10% of worldwide marine fisheries landings (FAO 2008)• world’s largest mono-specific fishery (99% of landings of one species)• most sustainable fisheries worldwide (Mondoux et al. 2008)• 99% of landings processed to fishmeal • 1200 fishing vessels, 140 processing plants, 23000 employees, fishery

management based on Total Allowable Catches, since 2009 by Individual Vessel Quotas

0,0·107

0,2·107

0,4·107

0,6·107

0,8·107

1,0·107

1,2·107

1,4·107

Anch

ovy

land

ings

(met

ricto

nnes

)

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

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1980

1982

1984

1986

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1994

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2002

2004

2006

2008

Seasonal variabilityPeruvian pelagic fisheries bears:

Strategy: since 1965 a closed season was established during the winter months when anchovy spawning reaches its peak

0·105

2·105

4·105

6·105

8·105

10·105

12·105

Anch

ovy

land

ings

(met

ricto

nnes

)

winter months

1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964

0·106

2·106

4·106

6·106

8·106

10·106

12·106

14·106

Anc

hovy

land

ings

(met

ricto

nnes

)

1951

1953

1955

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1959

1961

1963

1965

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1973

1975

1977

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1981

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2003

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2007

2009

ENSO years

Inter-anual variabilityPeruvian pelagic fisheries bears:

Strategy: at least four adaptations

Extreme events:

ENSO 1972-73

ENSO 1982.83

ENSO 1997-98

Multidecadal variability or „regime shifts“:Peruvian pelagic fisheries bears:

First papers appear during present century, supported by paleo- oceanographic data (Alheit and Ñiquen 2004).

0·106

2·106

4·106

6·106

8·106

10·106

12·106

Ave

rage

anch

ovy

land

ings

±SD

1959-1971 1972-1984 1985-present

"sardine regime"

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4,0

8,0

12,0

16,0

50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04

Anc

hovy

land

ings

(103

tonn

es)

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0 Sardine landings (10 3 tonnes)

ANCHOVY SARDINE

What happens during extreme ENSOs?

1. Migration of target species

2. Invasion of tropical fish species

3. Management plans (quotas, fishing season, etc) no longer valid

4. Export fishmeal price fluctuations

For the Peruvian anchovy fishery:

0 1 0 2 0 3 0

1 9 7 1

5 °6 °7 °8 °9 °

1 0 °1 1 °1 2 °1 3 °1 4 °1 5 °1 6 °1 7 °1 8 °

0 1 0 2 0 3 0

1 9 7 2

5 °6 °7 °8 °9 °

1 0 °1 1 °1 2 °1 3 °1 4 °1 5 °1 6 °1 7 °1 8 °

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0

1 9 7 3

5 °6 °7 °8 °9 °

1 0 °1 1 °1 2 °1 3 °1 4 °1 5 °1 6 °1 7 °1 8 °

0 1 0 2 0 3 0

1 9 7 4

5 °6 °7 °8 °9 °

1 0 °1 1 °1 2 °1 3 °1 4 °1 5 °1 6 °1 7 °1 8 °

0 2 0 4 0 6 0

1 9 8 1

56789

1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0

1 9 8 2

56789

1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8

0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5

1 9 8 3

56789

1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8

0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0

1 9 8 4

56789

1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0

1 9 9 6

56789

1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8

0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5

1 9 9 7

56789

1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0

1 9 9 8

56789

1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8

0 1 0 2 0 3 0

1 9 9 9

56789

1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8

1971-1974 1981-1984 1996-1999

1. Migration of target species

Adaptation: the decentralized industry

Tecnología de Alimentos S.A. Pesquera Austral Pesquera Copeinca Pesquera Hayduk Pesquera Diamante

Unloading platform

2250

km

1. Migration of target species

Fishmeal processing plants in Namibia

1500

km

Fishmeal processing plants in the Gulf of Mexico

1800km

Adaptation: low cost unloading facilities

1. Migration of target species

2. Arrival of warmer water fish species

Biomass of pelagic species

AnchovySardineHorse mackerelPeruvian Jack mackerelLongnose anchovy

1971-1975 1981-1985 1995-1999

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100

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

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1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

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Fishmeal processing in comparison with human consumption industries, like the canning or frozen industry, has the major advantage of being independent of only one fish species for its production and marketing.

Landing‘s species composition

Adaptation: the opportunistic industry

Since 2001 the use of human consuption fish species for fishmeal has been banned.

2. Invasion of tropical fish species

Adaptation: Flexible formal institutionsPeruvian General Fisheries Act (1992) requires the use of marine resources according to a management system based on current knowledge on biological, economic and social components.

Management plans:• 2001 giant squid fishery• 2001 and 2003 high migratory species (tuna) fishery • 2001 and 2007 pelagic jack and horse mackerel fishery • 2003 demersal hake fishery

The lack of a management plan for the anchovy fishery is not accidental or unintended but captures the intention of the government to avoid legal instruments that could restrict or delay a rapid management decision process.

Anchovy is managed according to “Provisional Fishing regimes” enacted without any approval of the parliament or the president with a solely signature of the Minister of Fisheries.

3. Management plans no longer valid

Adaptation: Rapid response

3. Management plans no longer valid

It takes two and a half days to close the anchovy fishery following written recomendations from the Peruvian Research Institute.

Adaptation: Rapid response

3. Management plans no longer valid

Adaptation: Monitoring through Eureka operations

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Num

bero

fres

earc

hve

ssel

s

Febr

uar6

6

Juli

66

Mär

z67

Mär

z68

Febr

uar6

9

Juli

69

Mär

z70

Febr

uar7

1

April

72

Juli

72

Sept

embe

r72

Janu

ar73

Nov

embe

r73

Augu

st74

Febr

uar7

5

Sept

embe

r75

Augu

st76

Juli

77

Augu

st78

Sept

embe

r79

Okt

ober

81

Sept

embe

r82

• Before 1982, monitoring was carried out through contractual arrangements between the Marine Research Institute and the fishing industry (Eureka operations).

• After 1982, at least 2 monthly cruises for anchovy plus Eureka operations.

3. Management plans no longer valid

Adaptation: Discounting external uncertainty

4. Export fishmeal price fluctuations

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US

dolla

rs/m

etric

tonn

e

Apr8

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8

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Fishmeal

Soybean meal

• Fishmeal prices in theory depend on the balance between demand and offer and should rise during extreme ENSO

• Fishmeal prices were depending also on soybean meal prices.• 1990s started the industrial conversion in Peruvian fishmeal processing (from

flame dried to steam dried)• “Fair quality Meal” with 65% protein to “Prime Steam Fishmeal” with 68-72%

protein content• 2000, Peru was offering almost 1 million tonnes of Prime Steam Fishmeal

Synthesis

Coping with extreme ENSOs

Commercial pelagic fisheries in Peru have developed strategies to cope with extreme ENSOs, which lead to substantial reduction of economic losses during the 1997-98 event.

Feeding fish, poultry or pigs with fishmeal will be remain economically attractive under future currently climate change scenarios and until there is not a significant change in strong cultural human consumption habits.

In the phase of SST increments in currently pelagic fishing grounds, governments should be prepared to be flexible and change their fishing policies adaptatively, rapidly and according to strong scientific and monitoring efforts.

To alleviate the impact of future uncertain climate scenarios in economic activities, additional human induced external uncertainties should be reduced or eliminated.

3. Management plans no longer valid