Adapting to climate change: lessons from the Peruvian
pelagic fishery
Milena Arias SchreiberMiguel Ñiquen CarranzaMarilú Bouchon Corrales
Peruvian pelagic fishery• almost 10% of worldwide marine fisheries landings (FAO 2008)• world’s largest mono-specific fishery (99% of landings of one species)• most sustainable fisheries worldwide (Mondoux et al. 2008)• 99% of landings processed to fishmeal • 1200 fishing vessels, 140 processing plants, 23000 employees, fishery
management based on Total Allowable Catches, since 2009 by Individual Vessel Quotas
0,0·107
0,2·107
0,4·107
0,6·107
0,8·107
1,0·107
1,2·107
1,4·107
Anch
ovy
land
ings
(met
ricto
nnes
)
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Seasonal variabilityPeruvian pelagic fisheries bears:
Strategy: since 1965 a closed season was established during the winter months when anchovy spawning reaches its peak
0·105
2·105
4·105
6·105
8·105
10·105
12·105
Anch
ovy
land
ings
(met
ricto
nnes
)
winter months
1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
0·106
2·106
4·106
6·106
8·106
10·106
12·106
14·106
Anc
hovy
land
ings
(met
ricto
nnes
)
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
ENSO years
Inter-anual variabilityPeruvian pelagic fisheries bears:
Strategy: at least four adaptations
Extreme events:
ENSO 1972-73
ENSO 1982.83
ENSO 1997-98
Multidecadal variability or „regime shifts“:Peruvian pelagic fisheries bears:
First papers appear during present century, supported by paleo- oceanographic data (Alheit and Ñiquen 2004).
0·106
2·106
4·106
6·106
8·106
10·106
12·106
Ave
rage
anch
ovy
land
ings
±SD
1959-1971 1972-1984 1985-present
"sardine regime"
0,0
4,0
8,0
12,0
16,0
50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04
Anc
hovy
land
ings
(103
tonn
es)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0 Sardine landings (10 3 tonnes)
ANCHOVY SARDINE
What happens during extreme ENSOs?
1. Migration of target species
2. Invasion of tropical fish species
3. Management plans (quotas, fishing season, etc) no longer valid
4. Export fishmeal price fluctuations
For the Peruvian anchovy fishery:
0 1 0 2 0 3 0
1 9 7 1
5 °6 °7 °8 °9 °
1 0 °1 1 °1 2 °1 3 °1 4 °1 5 °1 6 °1 7 °1 8 °
0 1 0 2 0 3 0
1 9 7 2
5 °6 °7 °8 °9 °
1 0 °1 1 °1 2 °1 3 °1 4 °1 5 °1 6 °1 7 °1 8 °
0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0
1 9 7 3
5 °6 °7 °8 °9 °
1 0 °1 1 °1 2 °1 3 °1 4 °1 5 °1 6 °1 7 °1 8 °
0 1 0 2 0 3 0
1 9 7 4
5 °6 °7 °8 °9 °
1 0 °1 1 °1 2 °1 3 °1 4 °1 5 °1 6 °1 7 °1 8 °
0 2 0 4 0 6 0
1 9 8 1
56789
1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8
0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0
1 9 8 2
56789
1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8
0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5
1 9 8 3
56789
1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8
0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0
1 9 8 4
56789
1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8
0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0
1 9 9 6
56789
1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8
0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5
1 9 9 7
56789
1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8
0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0
1 9 9 8
56789
1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8
0 1 0 2 0 3 0
1 9 9 9
56789
1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 8
1971-1974 1981-1984 1996-1999
1. Migration of target species
Adaptation: the decentralized industry
Tecnología de Alimentos S.A. Pesquera Austral Pesquera Copeinca Pesquera Hayduk Pesquera Diamante
Unloading platform
2250
km
1. Migration of target species
AnchovySardineHorse mackerelPeruvian Jack mackerelLongnose anchovy
1971-1975 1981-1985 1995-1999
0
20
40
60
80
100
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
0
20
40
60
80
100
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Fishmeal processing in comparison with human consumption industries, like the canning or frozen industry, has the major advantage of being independent of only one fish species for its production and marketing.
Landing‘s species composition
Adaptation: the opportunistic industry
Since 2001 the use of human consuption fish species for fishmeal has been banned.
2. Invasion of tropical fish species
Adaptation: Flexible formal institutionsPeruvian General Fisheries Act (1992) requires the use of marine resources according to a management system based on current knowledge on biological, economic and social components.
Management plans:• 2001 giant squid fishery• 2001 and 2003 high migratory species (tuna) fishery • 2001 and 2007 pelagic jack and horse mackerel fishery • 2003 demersal hake fishery
The lack of a management plan for the anchovy fishery is not accidental or unintended but captures the intention of the government to avoid legal instruments that could restrict or delay a rapid management decision process.
Anchovy is managed according to “Provisional Fishing regimes” enacted without any approval of the parliament or the president with a solely signature of the Minister of Fisheries.
3. Management plans no longer valid
Adaptation: Rapid response
3. Management plans no longer valid
It takes two and a half days to close the anchovy fishery following written recomendations from the Peruvian Research Institute.
Adaptation: Monitoring through Eureka operations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Num
bero
fres
earc
hve
ssel
s
Febr
uar6
6
Juli
66
Mär
z67
Mär
z68
Febr
uar6
9
Juli
69
Mär
z70
Febr
uar7
1
April
72
Juli
72
Sept
embe
r72
Janu
ar73
Nov
embe
r73
Augu
st74
Febr
uar7
5
Sept
embe
r75
Augu
st76
Juli
77
Augu
st78
Sept
embe
r79
Okt
ober
81
Sept
embe
r82
• Before 1982, monitoring was carried out through contractual arrangements between the Marine Research Institute and the fishing industry (Eureka operations).
• After 1982, at least 2 monthly cruises for anchovy plus Eureka operations.
3. Management plans no longer valid
Adaptation: Discounting external uncertainty
4. Export fishmeal price fluctuations
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
dolla
rs/m
etric
tonn
e
Apr8
5
Apr8
6
Apr8
7
Apr8
8
Apr8
9
Apr9
0
Apr9
1
Apr9
2
Apr9
3
Apr9
4
Apr9
5
Apr9
6
Apr9
7
Apr9
8
Apr9
9
Apr0
0
Apr0
1
Apr0
2
Apr0
3
Apr0
4
Apr0
5
Apr0
6
Apr0
7
Apr0
8
Apr0
9
Fishmeal
Soybean meal
• Fishmeal prices in theory depend on the balance between demand and offer and should rise during extreme ENSO
• Fishmeal prices were depending also on soybean meal prices.• 1990s started the industrial conversion in Peruvian fishmeal processing (from
flame dried to steam dried)• “Fair quality Meal” with 65% protein to “Prime Steam Fishmeal” with 68-72%
protein content• 2000, Peru was offering almost 1 million tonnes of Prime Steam Fishmeal
Synthesis
Coping with extreme ENSOs
Commercial pelagic fisheries in Peru have developed strategies to cope with extreme ENSOs, which lead to substantial reduction of economic losses during the 1997-98 event.
Feeding fish, poultry or pigs with fishmeal will be remain economically attractive under future currently climate change scenarios and until there is not a significant change in strong cultural human consumption habits.
In the phase of SST increments in currently pelagic fishing grounds, governments should be prepared to be flexible and change their fishing policies adaptatively, rapidly and according to strong scientific and monitoring efforts.
To alleviate the impact of future uncertain climate scenarios in economic activities, additional human induced external uncertainties should be reduced or eliminated.