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Adaptive Planning

Joint Staff, J-7

Joint Operational War Plans Division

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Title 10 Authorities for Planning

Cohen-Nunn ActCohen-Nunn Act: Civilian Oversight of War Plans: Civilian Oversight of War Plans

SECDEF ROLE, sec. 113:Secretary of Defense (SECDEF), with President of the United States (POTUS) approval, and after consultation with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS), shall provide CJCS written policy guidance for the preparation and review of contingency plans.

Such guidance shall be provided every two years or more frequently as needed …

USD(P) ROLE, sec. 134:The Under Secretary of Defense for Policy [USD(P)] shall assist the SECDEF in preparing written policy guidance for the preparation and review of contingency plans and in reviewing such plans.

CJCS ROLE, sec. 153:CJCS shall be responsible for…

…providing for the preparation and review of contingency plans which conform to policy guidance from the President and SECDEF…

... advising the SECDEF on critical deficiencies and strengths in force capabilities identified during the preparation and review of contingency plans and assessing the effect of such deficiencies and strengths…

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Strategic Guidance for Planning

COMBATANTCOMMANDERS

CJCS

SECDEF/CJCS

PRESIDENT

SECDEF

Combatant Command Combatant Command (COCOM) Campaign (COCOM) Campaign and Contingency and Contingency

PlansPlans

Combatant Command Combatant Command (COCOM) Campaign (COCOM) Campaign and Contingency and Contingency

PlansPlans

National Security Strategy

National Security Strategy

National Defense StrategyNational Defense StrategyNational Military StrategyNational Military StrategyNational Defense StrategyNational Defense StrategyNational Military StrategyNational Military Strategy

Joint Strategic Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan Capabilities Plan

(JSCP)(JSCP)

Joint Strategic Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan Capabilities Plan

(JSCP)(JSCP)

Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF)Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF)

Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF)Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF)

CJCSI 3141.01DCJCSI 3141.01D

Management and Review Management and Review of Campaign and of Campaign and

Contingency PlansContingency Plans

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Operation Iraqi Freedom

““Today’s environment demands a system that quickly produces Today’s environment demands a system that quickly produces high-quality plans that are adaptive to changing circumstances.”high-quality plans that are adaptive to changing circumstances.”

-- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, -- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Adaptive Planning RoadmapAdaptive Planning Roadmap, 13 Dec 2005, 13 Dec 2005

““Today’s environment demands a system that quickly produces Today’s environment demands a system that quickly produces high-quality plans that are adaptive to changing circumstances.”high-quality plans that are adaptive to changing circumstances.”

-- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, -- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Adaptive Planning RoadmapAdaptive Planning Roadmap, 13 Dec 2005, 13 Dec 2005

• Options Civilian leaders wanted multiple

options

Civilian leaders wanted relative risk assessments for each option

• Assumptions/Assessments Some wrong or not applicable

• Cumbersome planning process and outdated planning technology Difficult to modify plan quickly and put

into execution

• Bottom Line: Extraordinary effort to adapt plan to

rapidly changing strategic circumstances

CoalitionGround Forces

CoalitionGround Forces

Ground Forces and

SOF

Ground Forces and

SOF

Ground Forces and Special Operations

Forces (SOF)

Ground Forces and Special Operations

Forces (SOF)

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• Cold War Planning Assumed forces would be ready and available Static conventional threats Forces postured to mitigate time-distance challenges and convey resolve Assumed little strategic change during a 2-3 year planning cycle Deliberate plans informed force structure/sizing analysis

• Contemporary Planning Long-term commitment of large portion of forces to Counterinsurgency (COIN) Operations Force rotations regardless of posture Dynamic/global unconventional and conventional threats ~ 6 month planning cycle with continuous assessments – “Living Plans” Contingency plans relevant and executable within resource constraints

Revolution in Planning

Implications for planning Joint Operations:

- Need a force management construct that decrements apportioned forces not only for allocated forces but also for forces otherwise not available due to other constraints

- Need a mission-based readiness reporting system and a global visibility capability

- Need capability to rapidly adapt and assess plans in light of changing guidance and assumptions…and, if necessary, rapidly transition to deployment and execution

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• Department of Defense (DoD) initiative to transform the way we plan and execute Joint Operations:

Better plans, with more options, more quickly; more SECDEF interaction with planning

Keep plans relevant in a rapidly changing environment; easily adapt plans for execution

Leverage technology to maximize planner intellectual effort (art) and minimize the labor intensive effort (science)

• AP process provides COCOM planners with better initial guidance, more opportunities to articulate risk:

JSCP directs combatant commands to use AP process for all top-priority contingency plans

Provokes discussion and provides a vehicle for gaining in-depth understanding of strategic and operational problems

The joint capability to create and revise situationally relevant plans The joint capability to create and revise situationally relevant plans rapidly and to a high level of quality, as circumstances requirerapidly and to a high level of quality, as circumstances require

The joint capability to create and revise situationally relevant plans The joint capability to create and revise situationally relevant plans rapidly and to a high level of quality, as circumstances requirerapidly and to a high level of quality, as circumstances require

Adaptive Planning (AP)

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Go From Here...Go From Here...Go From Here...Go From Here...

Base Plan(1 COA)

Operational Plan (OPLAN) 9999

Single Course of Action (COA) Single Course of Action (COA) with One or Two Brancheswith One or Two Branches

Single Course of Action (COA) Single Course of Action (COA) with One or Two Brancheswith One or Two Branches

Branch Plan 1

Branch Plan 2

Multiple Courses of ActionMultiple Courses of Action with Multiple Branches with Multiple Branches

Multiple Courses of ActionMultiple Courses of Action with Multiple Branches with Multiple Branches

……To HereTo Here……To HereTo Here

OPLAN 9999A

OPLAN 9999B

OPLAN 9999C

Transforming The Way We Plan

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Go from here….Go from here….

To here….To here….

• Near-parallel planning across echelons• Continual collaboration in virtual space

• Sequential planning by echelon• Periodic collaboration in physical space Detailed Feasibility Analysis

Done Late in Process

Detailed Feasibility Analysis Done Early in the Process

• Process jump-started by detailed, Process jump-started by detailed, clear guidance – up frontclear guidance – up front

• Planning benefits from iterative Planning benefits from iterative discussions between SECDEF and discussions between SECDEF and combatant commanderscombatant commanders

• Process jump-started by detailed, Process jump-started by detailed, clear guidance – up frontclear guidance – up front

• Planning benefits from iterative Planning benefits from iterative discussions between SECDEF and discussions between SECDEF and combatant commanderscombatant commanders

t

t

Transforming The Way We Plan

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Campaign Planning Construct

DoD began to address shortcomings of “contingency-centric” planning …

– Introduced “Phase 0” to address pre-conflict “shaping” activities

– Increased emphasis on security cooperation … with an interagency perspective

– Introduced “transition-to-stability” objectives to set conditions for lasting peace

– Expanded contingency planning collaboration with other agencies / international partners

e.g. recent collaboration w/State & USAID on Concept Plan (CONPLAN) guidance

While these initiatives took steps in the right direction, they required an overarching strategy to ensure proper prioritization, integration, and balance of effort

A strategy-centric approach requires a A strategy-centric approach requires a newnew planning construct planning construct

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Key LinkagesKey LinkagesKey LinkagesKey Linkages

The Paradigm Shift

The campaign plan becomes the mechanism for organizing, integrating and prioritizing security cooperation and shaping activities

– Security cooperation activities nested within the larger set of shaping activities

Security Cooperation/shaping activities should be designed to create effects that support the achievement of regional endstates

– Regional objectives, in turn, support the global objectives of the National Defense and Military Strategies

Security Cooperation/

Shaping Activity

SupportsSupports

Security Cooperation/

Shaping Effect

SupportsSupports

Regional orFunctionalEndstate

SupportsSupportsGlobal

Endstate

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Campaign Plan Summary

Strategy. A COCOM comprehensively integrates its steady-state, peacetime activities via the framework of a regional or functional strategy

Campaign Plan. The COCOM “operationalizes” its strategy by means of a campaign plan that:

– Integrates and synchronizes its steady-state activities and operations to achieve its strategic endstates.

– Ensures its various Phase 0 activities do not work at cross purposes with each other or shaping / security cooperation activities

– Provides a mechanism for interagency collaboration in a region or functional area

Contingency Plans. Under this construct contingency plans become branches to the overarching campaign plan

– Account for the possibility that broader campaign endstates cannot be achieved peacefully

New Planning ConstructNew Planning Construct

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6-Phase Planning Construct: Activities and Phases

Lev

el o

f M

ilit

ary

Eff

ort

Phase 0

PhasesOPLAN termination

Theater Shaping

DeterPhase I

Seize theInitiativePhase II

DominatePhase III

StabilizePhase IV

EnableCivilAuthorityPhase V

Shape Shape

OPLAN xxxx

Shaping

Phase 0

OPLAN xxxx

Shaping

Shaping Activities

Deterring Activities

Seizing the Initiative Activities

Dominating ActivitiesStabilizing A

ctivities

Enabling Civil

Authority A

ctivities

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Global Shaping

OPLAN Activation

Trigger Event

Campaign Plan

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Legacy Planning Process

The 24-month deliberate planning cycle – too long

Too little SECDEF influence, too late in planning cycle

Feasibility analysis time consuming and too late in the process

Plans one-dimensional – need multiple options

Plans “static” and difficult to adapt – need flexibility and periodic updating to stay relevant

No technology to support ongoing collaboration – horizontally and vertically

Traditional deliberate planning is insufficiently Traditional deliberate planning is insufficiently responsive and relevant to the demands of a responsive and relevant to the demands of a

dynamic security environmentdynamic security environment

Traditional deliberate planning is insufficiently Traditional deliberate planning is insufficiently responsive and relevant to the demands of a responsive and relevant to the demands of a

dynamic security environmentdynamic security environment

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In Progress Reviews (IPR)

6 Months to 1 Year

Refine, Adapt, Terminate or Execute Plan

Develop Plan

DevelopConcept

AnalyzeMission

IPR-A(Assumptions)

IPR-A(Assumptions)

PlanningPlanningGuidanceGuidancePlanningPlanningGuidanceGuidance

GEF/JSCP

StrategicGuidance

Guidance Guidance Guidance,as required

PlanApproval

Requires regular COCOM involvement with Joint Staff, Requires regular COCOM involvement with Joint Staff, Office of Secretary of Defense, and SECDEFOffice of Secretary of Defense, and SECDEF

Requires regular COCOM involvement with Joint Staff, Requires regular COCOM involvement with Joint Staff, Office of Secretary of Defense, and SECDEFOffice of Secretary of Defense, and SECDEF

Plan Development ProcessPlan Development Process

IPRs are central to AP and offer multiple opportunities to IPRs are central to AP and offer multiple opportunities to ensure plans are relevant, feasible, & politically acceptableensure plans are relevant, feasible, & politically acceptable

IPR-C(Concept)

IPR-C(Concept)

IPR-F(Final)IPR-F(Final)

IPR-R(Review)

IPR-R(Review)

9 mo

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Networked on the Networked on the Global Information GridGlobal Information GridNetworked on the Networked on the Global Information GridGlobal Information Grid

RetailRetailSystemsSystems

RetailRetailSystemsSystems

WholesaleWholesaleSystemsSystems

WholesaleWholesaleSystemsSystems

ServicesServicesLogisticsLogisticsSystemsSystems

ServicesServicesLogisticsLogisticsSystemsSystems

MilitaryMilitarySealiftSealift

CommandCommand

MilitaryMilitarySealiftSealift

CommandCommand Surface Surface Deployment and Deployment and

Distribution Distribution CommandCommand

Surface Surface Deployment and Deployment and

Distribution Distribution CommandCommand

AirAirMobilityMobility

CommandCommand

AirAirMobilityMobility

CommandCommand

AlliedAlliedIntelIntel

AlliedAlliedIntelIntel

TheaterTheaterIntelIntel

TheaterTheaterIntelIntel

Nat’lNat’lIntelIntelNat’lNat’lIntelIntel

DefenseDefense LogisticsLogistics SystemsSystems

DefenseDefense LogisticsLogistics SystemsSystems

DefenseDefenseTransportationTransportation

SystemSystem

DefenseDefenseTransportationTransportation

SystemSystem

GlobalGlobal ForceForce MgmtMgmt

GlobalGlobal ForceForce MgmtMgmt

DefenseDefenseReadiness Readiness

SystemSystem

DefenseDefenseReadiness Readiness

SystemSystem

DefenseDefenseIntelligenceIntelligence

SystemSystem

DefenseDefenseIntelligenceIntelligence

SystemSystem

SECDEFSECDEFStrategicStrategicDirectionDirection

SECDEFSECDEFStrategicStrategicDirectionDirection

COCOMCOCOM““Living Plans”Living Plans”

COCOMCOCOM““Living Plans”Living Plans”

POTUSPOTUSPOTUSPOTUSNationalNationalSecuritySecurityStrategyStrategy

NationalNationalSecuritySecurityStrategyStrategy

Defense Defense StrategyStrategyDefense Defense StrategyStrategy

USUSCoastCoast GuardGuard

USUSCoastCoast GuardGuard

USUS Air Air

ForceForce

USUS Air Air

ForceForce

USUSMarineMarineCorpsCorps

USUSMarineMarineCorpsCorps

USUSNavyNavyUSUS

NavyNavy

USUSArmyArmyUSUS

ArmyArmy

AP E

X

At full maturity, Adaptive Planning will integrate situation monitoring, At full maturity, Adaptive Planning will integrate situation monitoring, readiness, global force management, intelligence, planning, and executionreadiness, global force management, intelligence, planning, and execution

At full maturity, Adaptive Planning will integrate situation monitoring, At full maturity, Adaptive Planning will integrate situation monitoring, readiness, global force management, intelligence, planning, and executionreadiness, global force management, intelligence, planning, and execution

Networked System of Systems

AutomaticTriggersAutomaticTriggers Automatic

TriggersAutomaticTriggers

TransportationTransportationCommandCommand

(TRANSCOM)(TRANSCOM)

TransportationTransportationCommandCommand

(TRANSCOM)(TRANSCOM)