advanced energy technology for sustainable development. part 4

Satoshi Konishi

Institute for Sustainability Science,

Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University

Aug.12-13, 2011

Advanced energy technology for

sustainable development - Analysis of energy for sustainability-

Summer School AACIMP-2011

Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Ukraine

International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science

5．Impact of energy technology

research

－ As an example, economical ｅｆｆｅｃｔ of the Fusion research

is analyzed

－ energy sales is not the only outcome of the research.

→economical effect out of the market. ”Externality”

is important;

.

－ “Impact pathway” shows 4 effects of the fusion R&D.

1) The direct effect of the purchase ;

The increase of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) as a

measure.

Input-Output table is usually used .

research benefits public? International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science

2) The growth of local community and its economy.

Secondary and further effect of purchase.

Employment.

Some of these effects can be estimated with

local community effect out of input-output table.

Evaluation procedure is established.

3) Improvement of technical capability of the industry

Technical spin-offs as part of Externality.

Results usually appears slow and occasional.

Not obtained from the market. Contribution.

4) Energy and related technology.

Appears decades later.

Contribution of industry is mach larger than

Original R&D.

Contribution to the global environment problem.

Mechanism of R&D impact

①direct Energy R&D

Direct purchace equipment

construction

②social Community growth employment

③external

Industrial

technology Spin-offs

High-techs

④future

Energy

technology

Energy

market

Impact pathway

Energy sales

Specific equipment Energy security

environment

example Category

Local

community


③Impacts on technology

In industry

④commercial value

of energy

Year

2000 2020 2040 2080 2100 2060

Mark

et scale

①Direct economical

Effect by research

Investment

②impacts on local

community

Energy research affects four paths. International Symposium on Global Sustainability

Institute of Sustainable Science

Investment source

・various sponsors provide funding

・different purpose, different phase of development

・investment for research is a certain fraction of total sales

→investment must yield benefit

1960

transfer

６．２％

For R&D

industry

utility Research

institute

Basic

research

Fission reactor case sales

Further competitiveness improvements

commercialization

Research

institutes


basic

5.4%

2.4%

1.9%

1.4%

4.0%

5.9%

5.7%

6.8%

8.4%

14.7%

8.1%

6.3%

4.0%

5.4%

5.8%

2.7%

4.0%

0.7%

59.3%

68.4%

78.0%

85.0%

71.6%

66.7%

83.8%

73.5%

95.1%

40.7%

31.6%

22.0%

15.0%

28.4%

33.2%

16.3%

26.6%

5.0%

26.0%

23.5%

15.7%

11.0%

23.0%

27.4%

13.6%

22.6%

4.3%

R&D/

total sales

Basic

research

applied

research

commercial

development Industry

Chemical

ceramics

steel

Metal

machinery

electrical

Electronic/ instruments

Fine machinery

softwares

Research

contribution

R&D budget to total sales International Symposium on Global Sustainability


Spin-offs from fusion research

Fusion R&D

microwaves

Telecommuni-

cation

Semiconductor

industry High temperature

devices

Energy storage

superconductor

Power

supply

Ion beam

divertor

utility

Analytical

instruments

Ultra-high

vacuum

materials

Surface

modification


The spin-off technology is studied with actual fusion R&D project performed in the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute.

Total 66 billion Yen (inflation corrected) was spent in 40years.

Products were identified (ca180)by the researchers and industry.

Then their market sizes were evaluated by a third party

(business consulting institute).

Impact on the market is estimated to be 2.7x109 Yen.

Contribution of research institute is 1.2x108 Yen.

Technical spin-offs International Symposium on Global Sustainability


Future energy mix was analyzed to consider the entire market.

Environmental constraint requires reduced carbon dioxide emission.

Fusion will not have chance in “business as usual” scenario.

Fusion electricity is estimated to have ca. 30% of global market.

It is possible to supply same amount of electricity without fusion.

Difference of total electricity cost corresponds a benefit of fusion.

While reduction of the expense benefits consumer

Reduction of the electricity cost can lead to loss in GDP.

Future Energy Market

Market under environmental constraint


This methodology can be used for any energy

Energy supply without fusion

coal

oil Unconventional oil

gas Unconventional gas nuclear

hydro

0

10

20

30

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 year

Renewable hydrogen

renewables

actual estimated

Gto

n oi

l equ

ival

ent/y

ear

・Future energy market is analyzed to fill the demand with minimal cost.

・Fusion will not appear in “Business as usual” scenario.

・Market can be filled without fusion.


Fusion Electricity Share

Fusion is estimated to have 10% share at 2100 under

environmental constraint if successfully used for electricity.

0

10

20

30

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

GTOE

Coal

Oil

UnConventional Oil

Gas

Nuclear Hydro

Fusion

Renewables

UnConventional Gas


Economical impact of fusion development

by the energy market till 2100.

Electricity

sales

Fusion

devices

(domestic)

Fusion

devices

(export)

Electricity

cost

saving

direct 37 4.5 47.1 35

Indirect

effect

By I/O

table

73 14 149 -

(in 1012 yen-close to 10 billion Euro or &,billion UAH.

discount rate 2%, integrated from 2050 to 2100.)

Question: benefit measured by GDPs?


In the sales value of electricity, 35% is generation cost.

Contribution of the research is evaluated according to the current

Japanese electricity market.

Fusion reactor and accompanied plant are the product of the

research.

Fusion specific devices have global export market.

(on the other hand fission reactor is assumed to have difficulty in

global market because of nuclear proliferation, fuel cycle and

social acceptance)

For the long period up to 2100, 2% discount rate was applied.

- reduces to 10% as present value equivalent.

Fusion market analysis International Symposium on Global Sustainability


Supply chain of energy

Difference from LCA：dynamic. Not the estimation of inventory

→constraints may occur with ample resource

→constraints without material, by externality

→market growth can be also limited.

Energy

Technology

resource waste

demand

Energy

production

Social

requirements

externality

Waste

management

Fuel

supply

stock

flow

Large quantity

Cheap price

Logistics

inevitable


Demand

(time,place)

Waste

disposal

Management

Plant construction

Transport energy

transport

Storage

Supply

Energy

Generation

(conversion)

Transport cost

resource

infrastructure

transport

Supply chain constraint

Supply chain limits energy sales by various reasons.

Product

sales

Transport system

Time, place

fund

Changing needs

Supply chain is a dynamic process.

Site/location

Storage

Storage


Large demand

City, industry

Long Plant

construction time

Fusion plant

Small quantity

Fuel D and Li

Rare metals

Advanced

technology

Base load

Supply chain of fusion

Fusion has some advantages (and disadvantages)

electricity

Large fund

Supply chain is a dynamic process.

Limited location


Rad Waste

disposal

Management

Safety concern

Changing demand

Waste only from

Production and

aged

Plant construction

Transport energy

Solar

wind Resource

uncontrollable

Limit of renewables

Supply chain limits energy sales by various reasons.

electricity

Time, place

High cost

Changing needs

Site/location limited

Storage

needed


Electric grid capacities

Physics Today, vol.55, No.4 (2002)

Stability of the grid is region specific.

Eastern Grid

~500GW

Texas Grid

~53GW

Western Grid

~140GW

East Japan

~80GW

West Japan

~100GW

UTPTE ~270GW

Thailand ~20GW

Vietnam ~8GW

Extremely large Grids in a country Internationally connected Grids Delicately controlled grids - these are all exceptional in the future energy market.

Electric grid is a national security issue and

cannot be easily integrated.


Forecast of power demand

Thailand

Peak

Po

wer

(MW

)

Vietnam

* Source JBIC report 18

Cambodia Lao

Peak

Po

wer

(MW

)

Peak

Po

wer

(MW

) P

eak

Po

wer

(MW

)


Difference in Grid Composition

Kansai, night ： 14GWe

Kansai, daytime ： 30GWe

Thai ： 15GWe

Composition of grid

Frequency change

Grid Capacity

・Grid in Thailand is smaller than

Kansai, but has more capacity to

accept fusion load.

Change of the Load 200MW, 200MW/sec

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Kansai,night Kansai,day Thai

out

put(

GW

) Nuclear

Hydro

Fossil fire

-0.16 -0.14 -0.12 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00

0 10 20 30 time(sec)

frequ

ency(

Hz)

Kansai, Night Kansai, daytime Thai

・Large and fast load affects grid.

Small capacity cannot respond.


Influence to the power grid

The grid capacity of 10-20GW is required to supply startup

power of regular size fusion reactor.

The influence also depends on the grid configuration, as

response time of each power station is different.

Response speed

Hydro fast 10%/min

Oil 5%/min

Coal slow 1%/min

Nuclear not allowed now

Solar/Wind No response

Fusion requires large power Can small grid respond?


Fusion role in the grid Thailand

Solar/Wind

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Japan

Solar/Wind

Fusion

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Solar/Wind

Fission

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Solar/Wind

Fission

Fusion

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Fusion will respond to increased demand in developing country

While only replaces old stations in Japan.


3 stages of selection by feasibility

• Technology is evaluated by technically, socially and economically. These 3 stages sometimes overwrap.

• In each stages selection criteria and stakeholder are different.

Technical-researchers

Socialーgovernment, society,public

commercialーbusiness, company

consumer

• Due to the difference in

criteria, winners could be

different.

Cost is not the only measure.


Technology selection

Technical feasibility

Social feasibility

Commercial

feasibility

Technical success

Social value

benefit

Researcher

institute

Government

public company

Temperature Thermal Efficiency coolant

300

5 0 0

8 0 0

Light water Heavy water 、

Liquid metal

Molten salt

Helium

30%

4 0 %

5 0 %

N P D

1 9 6 2

CalderHall 1956

CO2

F E R M I

1 9 6 3 （商用）

Obninsk(RBMK) 1954

Shippingport

P W R 1 9 5 7 V B W R

1 9 5 7

E B R 1

1 9 5 1

A G R

1 9 7 6

SGHWR

1968 EL-4

1966

Variety of fission reactors developed


Selection by various reasons

○Fusion is suitable for growing economy after 2050.

・large scale

・unban electricity supply

・little problem of fuel cycle

・self-reliance, free from resource constraint

○ Development of advanced system is a key issue for fusion

・economy – compete with renewables and fossil with CCS

・environment - low activation, short life of rad-waste

○fusion provides significant contribution for global environment

・carbon free electricity

・replaces fossil based fuel.

Summary of fusion market International Symposium on Global Sustainability


advanced energy technology for sustainable development. part 4

Education

global market

institute of advanced

energy supply

actual fusion rd

sustainability science

benefit of fusion

fusion researchis

global environment problem