advisory council on small business and agriculture...advisory council on small business and...

Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

10th

Floor, Paul Volcker Boardroom

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

AGENDA

10:30am

10:40am-11:00am

11:00am-11:20am

11:20am-11:40am

11:40am-12:00pm

12:00pm

12:15pm

12:15pm-1:55pm

Welcome

Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President

The National Economy, Richard Peach, Senior Vice President

Regional Update, Jason Bram, Officer

NYC Community Credit, Kausar Hamdani, Senior Vice President and

Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President

Facilitated Discussion, Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President

Adjourn to NWC Room-10F

Lunch

Round Table Discussion with John Williams, President

Introductory Remarks and Welcome from President Williams

Group Discussion

Your experiences provide insight into current economic conditions.

In considering each question, please reflect on the experiences of

your firm, firms of similar size, and firms in your industry. Please

provide a rationale for each answer.

Sales

Have sales volumes increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the

second half of 2018?

What are your expectations for 2019?

Investment

Has investment (e.g. plant, equipment, technology) increased,

decreased, or stayed the same in the second half of 2018?


Employment

Has employment increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the


Have you faced any recent labor shortages that have limited the

ability to meet demand? Please explain.

What are your employment expectations in 2019?

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/outreach-and-education/community-development/credit-conditions/new-york-city-credit-profile-2018.pdf



10th

Floor, Paul Volcker Boardroom


Prices Have input prices increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the



Have prices of products/services sold increased, decreased, or stayed

the same in the second half of 2018?

Do you expect prices of products/services sold to increase in 2019?

Financing Conditions

Over the past two quarters, please describe the financing conditions

for firms of your size and in your industry.

How have the terms and conditions for obtaining financing changed

(tightened, eased, not changed)?

Outlook

What is the most significant business opportunity you see in 2019?

What is the chief growth barrier or concern facing your firm in

2019?

Concluding Remarks from President Williams

2:00 pm Adjourn




ATTENDEE LIST

Council Members

Adenah Bayoh

Founder

Adenah Bayoh & Companies

Jassi Chadha

President & CEO

Axtria, Inc.

Kevin Ellis

CEO

Cayuga Milk Ingredients

Sarah LaFleur

Founder & CEO

MM.LaFleur

Ranjini Poddar

Founder & CEO

Artech Information Systems, LLC


John Williams

Jack Gutt

Kausar Hamdani

Richard Peach

Matthew Higgins

Anand Marri

Claire Kramer Mills

Rosanne Notaro

Jason Bram

Jessica Battisto

President

EVP, Communications & Outreach

SVP, Communications & Outreach

SVP, Research & Statistics

VP, Research & Statistics

VP, Outreach & Education

AVP, Outreach & Education

AVP, Legal

Officer, Research & Statistics

Sr. Analyst, Outreach & Education

US Macro OverviewNovember 20, 2018

Overview• Growth in the US has firmed since 2016 with real GDP up 3%

over the four‐quarters ending in 2018Q3. • Fiscal stimulus is contributing to this pick up in growth.

• Several indicators suggest that the economy is at or near full employment, with clearer evidence that the rate of increase of wages/compensation has moved higher.

• Underlying inflation has moved up to the FOMC’s objective of 2%. But at this time we do not see evidence of building inflation pressures.

1

-5-4-3-2-10123456

-5-4-3-2-10123456

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Growth of Real GDPFour Quarter Percent Change Four Quarter Percent Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.2

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Industrial Production: Manufacturing

Industrial Production: Total and Manufacturing% Change, Year to Year

Source: Federal Reserve Board3

Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Industrial Production: Total

% Change, Year to Year

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Real PCE and the Personal Saving Rate12 Month % Change %

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Real PersonalConsumption Expenditures

Personal Saving Rate

4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

450 500 550 600 650 7000

2

4

6

8

10

12

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board

Households’ Net Worth as a Percent of Disposable Income

2012Q1 to present

Note: Fitted line is from 1983Q1 to 2005Q4.

Personal Saving Rate and Household Net WorthPersonal Saving Rate (Percent) Personal Saving Rate (Percent)

1983Q1 to 2005Q4

5

2018Q2 (691.87, 6.8)

1983Q1-2018Q2

2006Q1 to 2011Q4

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1980 1990 2000 2010

Household Liabilities over Disposable IncomeRatio

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

6Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Ratio

Single Family Housing Market

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

020406080

100120140160180200220

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Index Level Months

Source: CoreLogic, National Association of Realtors, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Single Family House Price Index

(Left Axis)

Months’ Supply

(Right Axis)

7

Housing Starts

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Thousands, 3 MMA Thousands, 3 MMA

Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Total Multifamily(Left Axis)

Single Family(Right Axis)

8

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Business Fixed Investment FirmingFour Quarter Percent Change Four Quarter Percent Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.9

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

4 Quarter % Change 4 Quarter % Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Federal

State and Local

Real Government Consumption and Gross Investment

10

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Average 1962-2007

–2.1%

% of GDP % of GDP

CBO Projection-June 2017

Source: Congressional Budget Office, FRBNY staff calculations

Federal Deficit

Actual

CBO Projection-April 2018

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Projection

Gross Federal Debt as a Percentage of GDPPercent

Source: CBO; Haver. Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Gross Federal

Debt(Left Axis)

Gross Federal Debt Held by

the Public(Right Axis)

Percent

Aug 2018

Aug 2018June 2017

June 2017

12

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Real Net Exports as a % of GDPPercent

Source: BEA; Haver Analytics. Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Percent

13

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Labor Market IndicatorsPercent Percent


Unemployment Rate(Left Axis)

Labor Force Participation Rate

(Right Axis)

Employment to Population Ratio

(Right Axis)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statisticsvia Haver Analytics

14

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Annual % change Annual % change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Average Hourly Earnings

Employment Cost Index:

Private Sector Wages & Salaries

Growth of Average Hourly Earnings and ECI

15

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101

1.5

2

2.5

3

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + (SA, %)

Employment Cost Index and the Unemployment Rate% Change, Year to Year % Change, Year to Year

EC

I: W

ages

& S

alar

ies

for P

rivat

e In

dust

ry W

orke

rs (S

A)

Note: Data reported quarterlyfrom Q1-2009 to Q3-2018

16

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Labor Share (Right Axis)

Unemployment Rate and Labor Share of National IncomeSA, %

Source: Bureau of Labor Statisticsvia Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Unemployment Rate (Left Axis)

Labor Share Ratio

17

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Core PCE Deflator

FOMC Objective for Headline PCE Inflation

Measure of Underlying PCE Price Inflation

18

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Core PCE6-Mo % Change, Annualized

Source: BEA; Haver Analytics.19


Core

Goods excl. Food & Energy

Services excl. Energy

6-Mo % Change, Annualized

1

Global Economic Outlook

Small Business and Agricultural Advisory CouncilMatthew Higgins, 20 November 2018

The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System

Roadmap

Update on the global economic and industrial cycle

China’s economic slowdown

Italy’s fiscal and economic struggles

2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

China

Percent SAAR

Other EMEs

Advanced Economies

excluding U.S.

Sources: national sources, staff calculations. Q3 growth rates for some foreign economies reflect staff estimates.

Global GDP Growth

0.6

2.7

6.4

3rd quarter

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Percent SAAR

Global GDP Growth and Composite PMI

GDP Growth

Composite PMI

Correlation = 0.83

Sources: national sources, Markit Economics

Oct.

Diffusion Index

3

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

01-17 04-17 07-17 10-17 01-18 04-18 07-18 10-18

Percent positive or negative*

Citigroup Economic Surprise Indexes

Advanced Economies

Emerging Economies

*Weighted by series’ historical FX impact

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2016 2017 2018

Percent, CY/CY

2019

20182017

Sources: Blue Chip Economics, Consensus Economics. Figures are GDP-weighted averages for five AEs (counting the euro area as one economy) and 24 EMEs. The latest vintage surveys are from early to mid October.

2019

2018

2017

EMEs ex. China

Advanced Economies

Evolution of Global Market Growth Forecasts

4

90

100

110

120

130

140

17-01 17-04 17-07 17-10 18-01 18-04 18-07 18-10

Indexes, January 2016 = 100

S&P500FTSE EME equity index

Note: Index values are in dollar terms

U.S. and EME equity performance

47.5

50.0

52.5

55.0

57.5

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Diffusion Index

Source: Markit Economics, JPMorgan.

51.9

Oct.

49.9New Export

Orders

New Orders

Manufacturing New Orders

5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Percent change from year ago

G-3: Core Consumer Price Inflation

Japan

United States

Euro Area

Sources: BEA, Eurostat, BoJ. U.S. inflation measured using the PCE index.

2.0

1.1

0.3

2

4

6

8

10

12

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Percent change from year ago

G-3 Unemployment Rates

Japan

United States

Euro Area

Sources: BLS, CBO, Eurostat, BoJ.

Official NAIRU estimates

6

Credit to the private non-financial sector

Percent of GDP, end of period

2018:Q1 2017:Q4 Change

China 208 110 99

Other EMEs 83 63 20

Advanced Economies 167 171 -4

United States 151 168 -17

Euro Area 162 151 10

Japan 156 161 -5

Sources: Bank for International Settlements, IMF.

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

14 15 16 17 18 19

Percent change from a year earlier

China: Credit growth

Sources: CEIC, PBoC, Moody’s.

Total social financingBank lending

Shadow credit + corporate bonds

7

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Percent change from a year earlier

China: Fixed Asset Investment

Source: Monthly index computed from official year-year year-to-date changes. Real series deflated by linearly interpolated quarterly FAI price series.

Real

Nominal

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

14 15 16 17 18 19

Percent change from a year earlier, 3-mo. basis

China: Merchandise Trade Growth

Source: National Bureau of Statistics.

Exports Imports

8

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Basis points, 5-year maturities

Sources: Reuters.

Italy and Spain: sovereign spread vs. bunds

Spain Italy

90.0

92.5

95.0

97.5

100.0

102.5

105.0

107.5

110.0

112.5

115.0

08 09 10 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Indexes, 2008:Q1 = 100

France

Germany

Source: Eurostat

Euro area: major economy real GDP

Spain

Italy

9

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Percent of GDP

Gross Debt

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2018 edition. Figures refer to general government. Figures for end-2018 are projections.

Primary Balance

Italy: Fiscal performancePercent of GDP

Higher GDP growth (+0.5 ppt.)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Higher interest rate (+1.4% ppt.)

Baseline

Italy: Government gross debt projections

Percent of GDP Percent of GDP

Source: OECD, Economic Survey 2017. Baseline scenario assumes 1% real GDP growth, 1.5% of GDP primary surplus, effective interest rate of 3.2%, and inflation in GDP deflator of 1.5%.

The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

Regional Economic ConditionsJason Bram, Research Officer

Small Business & Agriculture Advisory Group Meeting – November 20, 2018

Overview

• A quick look at state economies across the U.S.

• An overview of the 2nd District’s economy

• Trends in the finance & tech sectors

• Housing markets

• Update on Puerto Rico’s recovery

2

Private-Sector Job TrendsPercent Change From Previous Peak to October 2018

AL

Down Flat Up to 3% Up 3% to 7% Up More Than 7%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.

AKFL

HI

PR

AZ AR

CA CO

CTNJDEMD

GA

ID

IL IN

IA

KSKY

LA

ME

VTNHMARIMI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NENV

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

3

Recent Private-Sector Job TrendsYear-Over-Year Percent Change as of October 2018

AL

Down Flat Up to 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up More Than 2%


AKFL

HI

PR

AZ AR

CA CO

CTNJDEMD

GA

ID

IL IN

IA

KSKY

LA

ME

VTNHMARIMI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NENV

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

4

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2007 2008 2009

Shading indicates NBER recession

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

New York

New York City

U.S.

New Jersey

Puerto Rico

Total EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Index

Oct

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff.

Index (Dec2007=100)

5

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2007 2008 2009 2019

Total Employment


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Orange-Rockland-Westchester

New York City

Long Island

United States

Fairfield

Seasonally Adjusted Index

Oct

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff.

Index (Dec2007=100)

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990


1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

New York State

New York City

United States

New Jersey

Unemployment RatesSeasonally Adjusted

Oct


Percent

7

55

60

65

70

1990


1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

New York State

New York City

United States New Jersey

Labor Force ParticipationSeasonally Adjusted


Percent

8

Shading indicates timebetween securities

peak and trough

SecuritiesEmployment

(left axis)Total EmploymentMinus Securities

(right axis)

50

110

170

230

290

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20202,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

NYC Securities EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Levels

Oct

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations.

Thousands Thousands

9

New York City’s New Growth SectorNumber of Jobs in Thousands

10Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moody’s Economy.com.

0

50

100

150

200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

SecuritiesEmployment

TechnologyEmployment

Thousands


Jan10 to Mar18 +71,000

+17,000

Technology Employment• Computer manufacturing• Electronic shopping• Software publishing• Data processing, hosting• Internet/web search portals• Internet publishing• Computer systems design• Scientific R&D services

NYC Tech Employment in Select IndustriesNumber of Payroll Jobs, 2007 and 2017

11Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and FRBNY Staff Calculations.

3,368

6,189

1,587

5,394

39,706

14,148

4,468

3,889

12,731

7,036

8,920

63,491

16,478

30,189

Computer Mfg

Electronic Shopping

Software Publishers

ISPs; Search Portals; Data Processing

Computer Systems Design & Related

Scientific R&D

Internet Publishing

20172007

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2007 2008 2009

FRBNY Business Surveys, Current ConditionsDiffusion Index

60

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Empire StateManufacturing Survey

Business LeadersSurvey

Current Economic Conditions

12

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Empire StateManufacturing Survey

Business LeadersSurvey

Future Economic ConditionsFRBNY Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead

Diffusion Index

13

Wage Growth Picking Up in the RegionFRBNY Supplemental Survey

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 14

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Jan2017

Feb2018

Nov2018

Jan2017

Feb2018

Nov2018

Business Leaders Survey Empire State Manufacturing Survey

By about what percentage, on average, has a typical worker’s wage/salary (not including benefits) changed over the past 12 months?

60

70

80

90

100

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

United States

NYC Metro

Fairfield

WestchesterRockland

Home Prices

110

Sep

Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).

CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally AdjustedIndex (Mar2006=100)

120

15

60

70

80

90

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

USA

Bergen

Hudson

Passaic

EssexUnion

Home Prices

110

Sep

100


CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally AdjustedIndex (Mar2006=100)

120

16

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

United States

Albany

Rochester

Upstate NY

Buffalo

Home PricesCoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted

Index (Mar2006=100)160


Sep

17

60

80

100

120

140

160

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

SuffolkUnited States

Kings

Nassau

Queens

Manhattan

Home PricesCoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted

Index (Mar2006=100)180


Sep

18

• The economy had already been in decline for over a decade.• Public debt in 2016 was roughly 100% of GNP.• The Island had defaulted on debt payments and could no longer borrow.• U.S. Congress implemented PROMESA in 2016 to restore long-term

economic growth and fiscal balance, creating a fiscal oversight board and a bankruptcy-like process.

19

Puerto Rico’s Economy Before MariaIndexes of Economic Activity, Employment, and Population

80

85

90

95

100

105

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Population

Real GNP

Employment Since 2006:• Population down 12%• Employment down 16%• Real GNP down 15%

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Planning Board of Puerto Rico, and Moody’s Economy.com.

Index (2006=100)

Puerto Rico’s Economy in 2018• Biggest blackout in U.S. history (in terms of Kw hours lost).• Post-storm out-migration—initially roughly 200,000 residents left.

– An estimated 70-100,000 have returned.

• Economy hit hard in late-2017; since then it’s rebounded.• Mixed signals on magnitude of economic recovery:

– Private-sector (payroll) employment initially fell by 48,000 (7%), but has since rebounded strongly—still down 11,000 (1.8%) from before Maria.

– Government employment down more sharply (about 3½%).– Unemployment rate has tumbled to record low of 8.0%.– Government revenues have been strong in recent months & bond prices

have rebounded. – Construction, manufacturing industries doing fairly well.

• Heavy investment in power (and water) infrastructure needed.– This was true before Maria and now even more so.

20

900

920

940

960

980

1000

1020

1040

1060

1080

1100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018

Thou

sand

s

Percen

t of Lab

or Force

Puerto Rico Employment & Unemployment RateBased on Household Survey

MARIA

Unemployment Rate(LEFT SCALE)

Household‐Survey Employment(RIGHT SCALE)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

21

22

900

920

940

960

980

1000

1020

1040

1060

1080

1100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


Thou

sand

s

Percen

t of Lab

or Force

Puerto Rico Employment & Unemployment RateBased on Household Survey

MARIA

Unemployment Rate(LEFT SCALE)

Household‐Survey Employment(RIGHT SCALE)

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100


Thou

sand

s of Job

sPuerto Rico Employment:

Household vs Payroll Survey

Household Survey

Payroll Survey


MARIA

23

205

210

215

220

225

230

580

600

620

640

660

680

Jan‐16 Apr‐16 Jul‐16 Oct‐16 Jan‐17 Apr‐17 Jul‐17 Oct‐17 Jan‐18 Apr‐18 Jul‐18 Oct‐18

Puerto Rico EmploymentThousands of Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted

Government (right scale)

Private Sector (left scale)

MARIA


24

‐20

‐15

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

Aug‐17 Oct‐17 Dec‐17 Feb‐18 Apr‐18 Jun‐18 Aug‐18 Oct‐18

Puerto Rico Sectoral Job Trends Since MariaThousands of Jobs lost/gained since Aug. 2017 (Before Maria), S.A.

Leisure & HospitalityRetail Trade

Manufacturing

Education & Health

Prof & Business Services

Construction

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY staff calculations.

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