aerosols and their relevance to forecasts by the hungarian meteorological service
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Aerosols and their relevance to forecasts by the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Tamás Tóth Hungarian Meteorological Service Phone: +36 62/624-042 E-mail: [email protected]. Aerosols. Def. : dispersion of the solid and liquid particles suspended in gas. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Aerosols and their relevance
to forecasts by the Hungarian Meteorological Service
Tamás Tóth
Hungarian Meteorological Service
Phone: +36 62/624-042
E-mail: [email protected]
Aerosols
Def. : dispersion of the solid and liquid particles suspended in gas.
source: http://my.opera.com/nielsol/blog/2008/11/11/atmospheric-dust-aerosols
Incidence: everywhere in the atmosphere
- Three types on basis of diameter:• Nuclei mode: particle size < 0.1 μm• Accumulation mode: 0.1 μm < p.s.< 2.5 μm• Coarse-particle mode: particle size > 2.5 μm
-Natural and antropogenic sources
-Most important effect: direct and indirect influences for the Earth’s radiation budget
Aerosols: natural sources
Source: http://climatechange.wikispaces.com/5.+Aerosols
Primary: continuously emit
- Soil dust - Sea salt - volcanic ash - botanical debris
Secondary particles are formed by chemical reaction in the air:-Volatile Organic Compounds such as monoterpenes
Antropogenic aerosols
Concentrate in industrial areas (mainly in the Northern Hemisphere)
Most important: sulphates originating from the burning of coal and oil
Nitrogen-oxides from transportation
CFCs originating from sprays, fridges
source: http://climatechange.wikispaces.com/5.+Aerosols http://climatechange.wikispaces.com/5.+Aerosols
Health effects
The atmospheric aerosol has significant influences on our health. They can cause reduced lung functions, increased respiratory symptoms, cardiovascular diseases, irritants for eyes, etc.Small particles can enter in the deeper parts of the lung (alveoli), where the transfer of O2 and CO2 take place.
Climatological effects
Source: http://suzaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GCOM_C/w_gcomc/temp_f1.html
Climatological effects 2
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/29/prediction-is-hard-especially-of-the-future/
Sources: http://benvironment.org.uk/post/8217302379/pinatubo
Mt. Pinatubo: major eruption in 1991
Droplets of sulfuric acid are spread in the stratosphere by the wind.
They reflect sunlight, reducing solar energy.
At least 0.2-0.3 degrees cooling for years.
How can the Hungarian Meteorological Service use aerosol forecasts?
Hungarian „speciality”
• Hungary : problem with air pollution in winter, especially PM10 (aerial dust)
• Cold air pad situation: foggy and misty weather with low level clouds (stratus)
• Forecast: weather prediction models usually indicate clear conditions
• Reality: may be totally different – fog and durable low level clouds
First day
After a cold front: cold air settles
Very low temperature at night with strong ground radiation up to space
Developing low-level
inversion
Lack of upstreams
Thickness of boundary layer is absolutely 0!
Later
Stratiform clouds gradually cover the whole Carpathian Basin.
The top of this cloudmass is usually at 600-1000 metres, sometimes at 1500 metres.
Highest peaks tower above the stratus
The inversion layer is slowly lifting; coldest place near the cloud top
Experiences above the clouds
Low-polluted air
Sunny and at least 5-8 degrees warmer conditions
Very dry air (relative humidity 10-20%), high visibility
Spectacular landscape with ”sea of clouds”
Suffering in the plains
Source: http://owww.met.hu/pages/20111120_szmoghelyzet_november/
• High concentrations of polluting materials • Foggy or misty air
• The sky is overcast
• Low temperature
• Little diurnal temperature variation
• Increasing number of asthma and lung diseases
Is it forecastable?
Although weather prediction models are usually unable to forecast the amount of low level clouds, the inversion layer will usually indicate it. Forecasters’ experiences can help recognizing similar synoptic situations in time, and the developing cold air pad is usually predicted successfully. We usually measure the highest concentration of air pollution in the beginning of similar periods.
CHIMERE model
• Time step: 1-hour
• Prediction system for CO2, NOx, O3, PM10 conc. variability
• The concentration values are strongly influenced by weather
• The weather parameters come from WRF limited area model
• On the other hand, we know the emission sources, (power plants, factories, transportation)
• The model calculates estimated emission data (based on early measured average data), and average daily transportation conditions.