1 Challenge the future

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Agent-based modelling

and simulation

for energy scenario’s

Energy & Industry Section

9-10 October 2014

dr. ir. Zofia Lukszo

with contributions from

Emile Chappin

Igor Nikolic

Reinier van der Veen

Jorge Moncada

Technology, Policy and Management

2 Challenge the future

Existing research

on energy transition

Transition research

•Focus on process aspects: how to organize

the agenda, create visions. Few systematic

analyses/simulations/technological aspects.

We focus on

•Shaping the future… by

• Understanding the technicalities

• Understanding the markets

• Understanding behaviour

• Designing appropriate policies

• With games and models

Chappin & Ligtvoet, 2014 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032113007624

3 Challenge the future

Our approach

• The world in interconnected “layers”:

• institutions: laws and regulations & values

• social processes - actors (multi-actor processes)

• physical systems (physical networks)

• Strong Complex Adaptive Systems perspective • Socio-technical complexity

• Evolution / coevolution / dynamics

• Multi level / Multi actors / Multi criteria / Multi time scale

4 Challenge the future

Agent-Based Model (ABM)

Basics to illustrate the concept

agent agent

tech. tech.

Koen H. van Dam, Igor Nikolic and Zofia Lukszo (Eds.), Agent-based modelling

of socio-technical systems, 275 p., Springer, 2013

5 Challenge the future

Power sector complex socio-technical

system

6 Challenge the future

Agent-Based Modelling

• Actors are modelled as individual agents who make autonomous

decisions

• E.g. an energy producer agent decides on investment

• Agents make decisions based on the others: they interact

• E.g. investment decision is based on expected power prices, which are

affected by past investments

• The decisions together determine to system-wide developments and

performance

• E.g. electricity prices are influenced by the bids of individual players in

the market, which base those on their portfolio

8 Challenge the future

Simulating Energy Transitions. Emile Chappin, 2011, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. Thesis, 2011. ISBN: 9789079787302

9 Challenge the future

Example (2): bio jet fuel supply chains

• Systematically exploring the emergence of renewable jet fuel supply chains.

• How do the biomass markets for food, transportation fuels, green electricity and industrial products interact, and how do biomass support schemes in different countries interact?

• Which (constellation of) incentive system(s) is/are most likely effective for the emergence of a renewable jet fuel supply chain?

10 Challenge the future

Biofuel supply chain

Biomass Market

Oil market biodiesel

biodiesel market

Blend biodiesel market

Biomass Market

Oil Market food

Fossil fuel Market

Government

Mass flow

Incentives flow

Economic flow

Information flow

Ownership

Farmers Oil mill companies Biodiesel producers Distributors

Gas stations

11 Challenge the future

Example (3): Modelling gas interconnectors

and gas trading at border points

Under what conditions can (emerging) institutions lead to reduced congestion and increased trading at gas border points?

12 Challenge the future

Example (4) – Car as a Power Plant

• design, assess and analyse the fuel cell car as power plant

(CaPP) in integrated transport and energy systems

• investigate and design robust control systems of CaPP-based

smart energy systems

• explore effective incentive and organizational structures for

the emergence of CaPP integrated energy and transport

system

13 Challenge the future

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14 Challenge the future

• Agent-based models • Linked open data • Serious games

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