agents of change 1

8/3/2019 Agents of Change 1

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Agents of ChangeComputer simulationsand empirical data

Andrzej NowakFlorida Atlantic UniversityWarsaw University


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Bubble model of social change

Bubbles ofNEW apprear in the sea ofOLD andgrow

Social influence underlies individual choices in

social transitions


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individual in a social context

each individual affectsand is affected by asocial context


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How can we conceptualize socialinfluence

A number of peoplegathered in an auditorium

to vote on an issueThey can discuss theiropinions with othersbefore they voteHow will the discussion

change the outcome ofthe vote?


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How social interactions changeattitudes in a group

Imagine that 400 individuals are to vote whether toprivatize their company

The individuals are sitting in a conference room. Thereare 20 rows of 20 seats in each row.

Each individual comes with an attitude concerningprivatization

Individuals differ in strength: some are morepersuasive than others


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Initial attitudes in a social groupColor = attitudeHeightof bars= strength


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Influence and Change, GenocidePrevention, Columbia U.

Dynamics

Chose an individual, check if thisindividual will change his/her opinion

Each individual adopts the opinion, thatis prevalent among his/her neighbors


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The role of distanceLatane, Bonavento, Nowak, Liu

Probability of interaction decreaseswith the square of the distanceResults general across cultures:USA, China, Poland, scientists

Latane, B., Liu, J., Nowak., A., Bonavento, & M., Zheng, L (1995). Distance matters:Physical distance and social impact. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , 21,795-805

Results confirmed in Internet communication study

Distance

N


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The role of leaders

Leadersohighly credibleostrongly connected


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ommunityManaement


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Social influence

Influence is proportional tooNumber of sourcesoStrength of sourcesoDistance between sources and the target


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Dynamics

Chose an individual,check if this individual willchange his/her opinion

Each individual adoptsthe opinion, that is mostprevalent among his/herneighbors


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Initial attitudes in a social groupColor = attitudeHeightof bars= strength


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Final attitudes as the result of social interaction1. Number of individuals having minority opinion hasdecreased (polarization)

2. Clustered

Conclusion: Minority opinion can survive by forming clusters


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Clustering and polarization in socialreality

Polarizationo attitude polarization in social groupsovoting behavior

Clusteringolanguageoreligionsofashionsoopinions


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Clustering in the choice of food


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lustering in marketingrediction ofcampaign success (15/17)\Goldenberg

Air-view of a sub-urban neighborhood; crosses on the roofs indicatconditioner purchase


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Generality of the model

Robust properties of the model Critical factors for the emergence of polarization

and clusteringolocal influenceonon linearity of influence processoindividual differences in the strength of persuasion


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Leader + followers


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Stronghold


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Wall


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Influence and Change, Genocide

Prevention, Columbia U.

Structure of contacts

The effects of social influence depend on thestructure of contacts betwen individuals

Opinion clusters follow communication patterns


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Social influence

Leads to clustering Development of local pockets of coherent reality

obelief systemso

local cultureocritical role of leaders


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Minority influence insocial change


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When minority has stronger influence thanmajority, social change may occur

For minority to be stronger it needs tooHave strong argumetso

B

e consistent among themselves and in time Minority influence takes a different route thanmajority influence

It is processed in a more rational wayLeads to private acceptance

Is delayed in time


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Simulating minority influence

Add a constant term to the influence of selectedopinion

The minority grows as a bubble of new in the

sea of old The social change happens as these bubblesconnect and the old becomes confined toislands

These islands are in fact strongholds Double social reality during transitions


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Bias favors the minority


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Bias withdrawn

Bias reversed


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Conclusion

Social transitions occus as bubbles of new in thesea of old

They resemble a process of nucleation in physics During the transition two distinct, separated in space,

internally coherent realities exist. The transiton occurs as the island of new reality

expand at the expence of the old reality


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Practical advises for facilitating change

Concentrate on leaders and introduction of alocal change

Identify leaders who are likely to adopt the new

position Form a social network connecting the leaders Give a lot of outside support in the beginning,

gradually withdraw the support as the group

growth Form a social network around the leaders Form a social network connecting the group Natural experiment (1600 participants) shows

the effectiveness of the method


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Testing the theory


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Complex Systems Dynamics

The Polish reform

Balcerowicz plan introduced in 1990 transformed theeconomic system from ineffective central planning to afree market economy


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1989 1990

Number of enterprises per capita


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1991 1992

Number of enterprises per capita


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Education and economic growth


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Voting for pro-reformistparties

Number of enterprisesper capita

Double reality of social transitions:Regions of new and old, political and economic data


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EU referendum 2002


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Dynamics of the economic transition

The critical importance of local processes A global model cannot explan the dynamics

The importance of the social factors in economicprocesses: education, culture, history, politics

This approach allows us to connect complexmacroscopic collective trends to their simple localcauses.

Nowak A. Vallacher R.R., Kus, M., Urbaniak, J., (2005) The Dynamics of Societal Transition:Modeling Non-Linear Change in the Polish Economic System, International Journal of Sociology.

Nowak, A, Kus, M. Urbaniak J, Zarycki T. (2002) Simulating the coordination of individual

economic decisions. Physica A, 297, 613-630 Yarri., G., Nowak A., Rakocy, K., Solomon S., (2008) Microscopic Study Reveals the SingularOrigins of Growth European Physics Journal B, 62, 4


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As for prevention, they have developed an early-warning mechanism, whichalerts the communities to trouble signs, and ways to immediately defuse thesituation that is provoking the tension. For instance, the most recent cartoonriots did not spread to many parts of the north because Ashafa and Wuyeimmediately asked the head of the Christian Association of Nigeria in thestates they work in, to go on the radio to condemn the explosive matter of thecartoons and asked the chief imams to accept the condemnation and appealfor calm.

To sustain their initiatives in the states where they practice, Wuye and Ashafaset up committees and advisory councils comprising religious leaders andcommunity heads to monitor peace-building efforts and provide feedback.Their initiatives have also been sustained through support from international

donor, government, and religious organizations.


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How to build social capital?

Sequence of actions where the next actionbuilds on the previous one

Each action increases the level of trust among

the local society, willingness for cooperation andthe belief in success


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Social change in Chmielnik (analysis by Praszkier)

KazimierzJaworskiChmielnik

Schools

Localgoverment

Businessman

Firmshigh-tech

Chmielnik ZdrjMineral water

Sewage

treatment

Teachinglanguagesand IT

200 900Enterprises

Change of attitudes

MisantrophytoTrust and cooperation

Growth ofSocial capital

Economicgrowth

Direct sales offarmers

products

Local telephonenetwork

Telekardiomat

Increase inEntreprenourship

and socialinvolvement

Farmers

oung people conduct a courtase against alcoholism

wichboard at the telephone system


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Dagmeara Bienkowska: Zegocin: cookbookoFailure of previous attmpts of change

dissintegtration Dorota Komornicka: nienik: very small local

funds invested in financing children projects,exhibitions, education


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Pastor James Wuye & Imam Mohammed Ashafa,Nigeria

Deeply ingrained, intractable religious conflict,full of hate and eagerness to shed blood.Multiple lurking and conspicuous conflicts,

including burning mosques, churches, killing,exiling, etc. Result: multiple conflicts over power and

control, decreasing the regions ability to

develop.


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Dimenensions of conflict

Conflict around the religious issues:unstructured, existing, and direct

Conflict around building peace through

education: unstructured, potential, andapproached in a direct way (organizingChristian/Muslim camps, influencing the schoolscurriculum)


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Solution

Pastor James Wuye, a Christian priest, and Imam Mohammed Ashafa, aMuslim cleric, are bringing peace and peace-building education to Nigeria.

In the past, they were members of militant youth groups, chasing, hating, andharming each other (e.g., James Wuye lost his arm in a clash withMohammed Ashafas group). At some point, in a moment of mutualenlightenment, they understood that operating together they could bring peaceand understanding between their respective religions.

They are now using the power of their faith and the example of interfaithcooperation to prevent and intervene in religious and politically motivatedconflicts in Nigeria, and especially to educate youth in building avenues topeaceful cooperation. Through TV programs and a portfolio of educationalprojects, they are changing the model of reacting to any stimulus with violence

into a model of dialogue and understanding.


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Results

Their other early-warning techniques include deprogramming of violentyouth through Christian and Islamic instruction, which teaches forgivenessand nonviolence. They also help communities identify and use traditionallyaccepted peace-building methods that may have been forgotten orabandoned.

To ensure that their ideas are passed on to the next generation, they haveset up peace clubs in pre-school, primary, secondary, and tertiary institutions.Each child who goes through the training is encouraged to plant a tree tosymbolize their commitment to building, and not destroying, their communities.They have also developed a peace-education curriculum, which is used inschools and by other organizations interested in peace-building, as well as theEthical Code for Religious Instructions in Schools.


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As for prevention, they have developed an early-warning mechanism, whichalerts the communities to trouble signs, and ways to immediately defuse thesituation that is provoking the tension. For instance, the most recent cartoonriots did not spread to many parts of the north because Ashafa and Wuyeimmediately asked the head of the Christian Association of Nigeria in thestates they work in, to go on the radio to condemn the explosive matter of thecartoons and asked the chief imams to accept the condemnation and appealfor calm.

To sustain their initiatives in the states where they practice, Wuye and Ashafaset up committees and advisory councils comprising religious leaders andcommunity heads to monitor peace-building efforts and provide feedback.Their initiatives have also been sustained through support from international

donor, government, and religious organizations.


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Questions?

agents of change 1

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