AIP-2 CC&Bio WGUse scenarios

Stefano Nativi (CNR) and Gary Geller (NASA/JPL)

OGC TC MeetingValencia, Spain

2 Dec 2008

Selected use scenarios

• CC impact on Pika distribution

• CC impact on Polar Ecosystems

• Vegetation changes in Arctic Ecosystems

CC IMPACT ON PIKA DISTRIBUTION

Abstract

• This scenario is driven primarily by scientific research on the distribution of pika and how it is changingdistribution of pika and how it is changing.

• From the GEOSS infrastructure perspective, an important objective is to investigate the interoperability process to to investigate the interoperability process to determine valuable predictors for the impact of climate change determine valuable predictors for the impact of climate change on biodiversityon biodiversity

• Use observations of pika over the last 20 years, plus existing modeling demonstration systems, to model pika distributions to model pika distributions and how they may change with climateand how they may change with climate

Users• Scientist and decision makers.

Context and pre-conditionsArea of Interest• The US Great Basin region• Other regions in Asia may be considered

Scientific patrons• Dr. Chris Ray (University of Colorado - CO USA)• Dr. Falk Huettmann– EWHALE lab- Biology and Wildlife Dept., Institute of Arctic Biology,

University of Alaska Fairbanks

Context and pre-conditions

Resources• IPCC data (WMO)• Biodiversity datasets (GBIF)• Biodiversity datasets (Univ. Colorado)

• Local CC model: TOPS (NASA/JPL)• IP3 ENM server (IP3)• IP3 community distributed catalog (IP3)

General Approach

CC IMPACT ON BIODIVERSITY/ECOSYSTEMS FOR THE POLAR AREA

Abstract

• The scenario output will be as maps of Arctic biodiversity, habitat maps of Arctic biodiversity, habitat and ecological service changesand ecological service changes, as well as a summarized scenario a summarized scenario runs with all relevant metrics runs with all relevant metrics provided in a simple to comprehend table. – All outputs will carry statistical confidence, and should allow to

feed directly into policy making.• The scenario models will allow to assess the amount and quality of The scenario models will allow to assess the amount and quality of

Ecological Services provided by the ArcticEcological Services provided by the Arctic. • The activities are intended to be linked with all relevant

components of the IPY (International Polar Year).

Users• This scenario will cater the needs for

– the global public, scientistsglobal public, scientists, and more specifically, the local decision-the local decision-maker maker for achieving best sustainability options.

Context and pre-conditionsPredict Future conditions• To predict the future scenarios, we will create quantitative associations of create quantitative associations of

biodiversity and habitat with the current and long-termbiodiversity and habitat with the current and long-term, and then apply these apply these to known and assumed future conditionsto known and assumed future conditions.

• Possible biodiversity topics include– Polar Bears presence– plankton, selected benthos species, ringed seals, walrus, narwhale, arctic

codand endemic plants.

Area of Interest• The Arctic (as defined as the 60 degree latitude circle)

Scientific patrons• Dr. Falk Huettmann– EWHALE lab- Biology and Wildlife Dept., Institute of Arctic Biology,

University of Alaska Fairbanks

Context and pre-conditions

Resources• IPCC data (WMO/NCAR)• Biodiversity datasets (GBIF)• Landasat data (USGS)

• IP3 community distributed catalog (IP3)• IP3 ENM server (IP3)

General Approach

VEGETATION CHANGES IN ARTIC ECOSYSTEMS

Abstract

• This scenario seeks to identify the extent and degree identify the extent and degree of vegetation changes in response to climate change of vegetation changes in response to climate change in arctic ecosystems, and in particular, the boreal-tundra ecotone.

• Users– Scientist

• with expertise in – use of remote sensing

– image processing

Context and pre-conditions

Area of Interest• The Arctic (as defined as the 60 degree latitude circle)– with sites where consistent historical satellite data (Landsat) exist

Scientist patrons• Dr. Douglas Nebert (USGS)

Context and pre-conditions

• Resources– Landsat MSS, 4-band data

• the primary long-term source of EO data– Climate and weather data records for polar observation sites

• help establish a local baseline for estimation and comparison.

– Elevation data • Help understand and extrapolate terrestrial temperature

lapse rates from observation sites to test sites.

– GeoBrain by GMU– GloVis or Z39.50 client

General Approach