air pollution and climate change short lived climate forcers Øystein hov
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UNEP and WMO 2011 – Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers. Temperature evolution for the scenariosTRANSCRIPT
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Air pollution and climate change Short lived climate forcers
Øystein Hov
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Is it useful to control short-lived climate forcers?
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UNEP and WMO 2011 – Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers.
Temperature evolution for the scenarios
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Methane measuressuggested to be effective
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Black Carbon Measuressuggested to be effective
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Global benefits from full implementation of identified measures in 2050/2030 compared to reference scenario
UNEP and WMO 2011 – Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers.
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Can we trust in these results?
• Emission scenario uncertainty?• Impact calculation uncertainty• Black Carbon forcing range assumed 0.3-0.6 Wm-2
(being on the high side of model results)• Estimated RF effect of the CH4 & BC measures
O3 0.18 / CH4 0.21 / BC 0.14 Wm-2 • Only two models used (GISS, ECHAM)
and simplified temperature response function
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Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
Contributions from European countries to Arctic pollution
(2006)31%
12%
9%
9%6%
2%
18%
4%4%2% 3%
RU NO FI ATL SE GB PL FR NOS DE Rest
Secondary inorganic aerosols:
SO4, NO3, NH4
Primary PM25
8%5%
9%5%4% 2% 2%
4%
19%38%
4%
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AMAP Assessment 2006: Acidifying pollutants, Arctic haze, and acidification in the Arctic www.amap.no
BC north of the Polar Circle 1991-2001 average
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Impact on instantaneous forcing of 1 kt BCSource: EMEP/MSC-W, UniOslo, IIASA
EMEP domain0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35
ALAT
BASBYBE
BLSBABGHRCYCZDKEEFIFRMKDEGRHUISIEIT
KZLVLTLUMTMEMENL
NOSNOPLPT
MDRORURSSKSIESSECHTRUAUK
mWm2/kt BCNorthern Hemisphere
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10ALAT
BASBYBE
BLSBABGHRCYCZDKEEFIFRMKDEGRHUISIEIT
KZLVLTLUMTMEMENL
NOSNOPLPT
MDRORURSSKSIESSECHTRUAUK
mW m2/kt BCArctic
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15ALAT
BASBYBE
BLSBABGHRCYCZDKEEFIFRMKDEGRHUISIEIT
KZLVLTLUMTMEMENL
NOSNOPLPT
MDRORURSSKSIESSECHTRUAUK
mW m2/kt BC
Instantaneous forcing over
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05/03/23
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Surface temperature response to forcings by natural factors, anthropogenic GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols NorESM (→ GFCS via downscaling)
All forcings Anthropogenic GHGNatural (Solar + volcanoes)Anthropogenic Aerosols
global Arctic
S/N the fourth decade aheadHawkins and Sutton BAMS 2009
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IPCC AR4 (2007) projected surface temperature changes 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 (multi-AOGCM average projection A1B SRES scenario)
Climate reanalysis and projections