airline economics growth frontiers - dublin january 2017 · source: airbus global market forecast...

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Airline Economics Growth Frontiers - Dublin January 2017

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Airline Economics Growth Frontiers - Dublin

January 2017

“Provide Innovative Financing Solutions to our Customers and become the Largest and Most Profitable Aviation Fund in the World”

Stellwagen Capital – What’s the Mission?

Pillars of Success

Experienced, Incentivised Management

Team

InnovativeInvestment

Products

Aviation Debt Market Opportunity

Globally Sourcing Investors & Capital

Exceptional Returns

Unique Capability

1 2 3 4

Highly Efficient Low Cost Structure

5

Stellwagen Group Structure

StellwagenTechnology

(“StellTec”)

Guardian

Holdings

Stellwagen

Capital

(“StellCap”)

Stellwagen

Group

StellwagenFinance

(“StellFin”)

Seraph

Aviation Management

(“Seraph”)

Loan Origination

Portfolio Management

Asset Management

Technology

It’s About People’s Attitude…………

88 years

Management/Background Professional Experience

Howard Millar: CEO - Ryanair, Almarai 28 years

Edward Hansom: CRO - AerFi/GPA Group, SMBC 28 years

Pradeep Hathiramani: CIO - Fifth Street, KKR, GATX 23 years

Michelle O’Toole: Inv. Rel. - Blackstone, Lehman Brothers 9 years

Highly Experienced & Incentivised Management Team

Average of 20 years experience

All invested & incentivised via bonus & shares

Total:

Traffic Growth Drives Opportunity

Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2015-2034 (presentation), p.10.

Aircraft are a Low Risk Investment Asset

Loss and Recovery Rates for All EETCs (1994-2014)(2)

Over 20 years of EETC loss history demonstrates very stable collateral price performance despite high levels of airline corporate defaults

TrancheApproximateCumulative

Loss Rate

Cumulative Recovery Rate

A 0.1% 99.9%

B 1.4% 98.6%

C 3.0% 97.0%

Aircraft Returns Compare Favourably to Other Asset Classes

(1) Sources: Seraph, Ascend, Guardian, NCREIF Real Estate Index, Bloomberg.(2) This analysis includes 38 passenger aircraft types, including both single- and twin-aisle models. Aircraft performance figures would be better on both

measures (annual return and volatility) with simple asset selection. (3) US real estate is more volatile by region than the national figures reflected in the NCREIF index used here.

During periods of higher airline stress and defaults, aircraft values weakened, but for shorter periods and to a lesser extent than most other asset classes

Asset Class Analysis (1986-2016)(1)

Asset ClassAverage Total Return

(CAGR)Volatility of Returns

Correlation with Aircraft

Aircraft(2) 6.8% 9.3% 1.00

S&P 500 7.4% 14.9% 0.52

US Real Estate(3) 7.9% 7.9% 0.48

Aviation Debt Market Opportunity

Aviation Banks retreat due to Basel III & IV and capital requirements

US and EU export credit banks closed

$127 billion of new aircraft deliveries in 2016, rising to $172 billion by 2020

$70 billion worth of aircraft to be re-financed annually

Senior loan economics attractive for both airlines and lessors – Operating Lease Killer

Very restricted competitive offerings from just a few banks

Senior Loan Investment Opportunity

Provides secured financing to both airlines and lessors

Very attractive balloon structure – cash flow light

10 year closed end investment grade fund

Target return with leverage of 7%

Innovative loan trading drives returns to over 10%

A dynamic investment with significantly higher returns than competitors

Highly Efficient – Low Cost Structuring

Highly efficient tax structure

No withholding tax on

distributions

Low fees negotiated with

all service providers

Use technology and outsourcing to keep costs low

Ensure maximum

returns generated for investors and

Group

It’s Never Plain Sailing

Stellwagen Capital Summary

World leader in aviation investment funds

Create and deliver innovative investment products

Source capital & investors globally

Unique opportunity in aviation financing

Generate exceptional returns for investors

Create and deliver innovative investment products

Source capital & investors globally - $120m equity hard circled

Unique opportunity in aviation financing

Generate exceptional returns for investors

Deliver highly profitable business