2019-03-301

ALBERTA’S SOLAR PV VALUE CHAIN OPPORTUNITY

16 January 2020, Calgary, Alberta

Solas Solar PV Value Chain Study2

1. Identify the solar PV value chain opportunity for Alberta

2. Determine Alberta’s ability to capture the solar PV value chain.

3. Identify the jobs associated with potential deployment scenarios to 2030

4. Identify the existing training opportunities

What is a Value Chain?3

A value chain is a set of activities completed within an industry to deliver a valuable product or service for the market.

This study focused on Solar Photovoltaics only Rooftop solar PV and

ground-mount solar PV Does not include

Building Integrated Solar PV

Energy Storage

Global Solar Industry

2019-03-30

4H

isto

ry

Solar PV cost is plummetingBetween 2009 and 2017, the levelized cost of energy for utility-scale solar PV fell by 86 percent

Solar PV historic growth has been meteoric

Cur

rent 2018 global solar PV capacity is

over 500 GW (Gigawatts)

Fore

cast

Solar PV cost continues to decreaseThe levelized cost of solar energy is expected tocontinue to decrease by 25 percent between 2017 and 2022.

Solar PV deployment continues to growDeployment is expected to grow globally at about 20 percent per year by 2022.

1 Lazard, “Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis — Version 11.0” (report, 2017), 10.

GLOBAL43%ANNUAL GROWTH

SOLAR PV MARKET 1990-2016

GLOBAL20%ANNUAL GROWTH

SOLAR PV MARKET 2017-2022

Alberta and Solar PV5

30%ALBERTA’S SOLAR RESOURCESIMILAR TO MIAMI, FLORIDARIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL

CLIMATE LEADERSHIP PLAN SOLAR RESOURCE

ENERGY FROMRENEWABLESBY 2030DEPLOYED

Alberta’s Current Solar PV Market6

43 MWDEPLOYEDTOTAL

ALBERTA

AESO CONNECTION QUEUE

Solar PV

67 PROJECTS3,794 MW

305 SOLAR COMPANIES83% supportROOFTOP

DEPLOYMENT TODAY’s BUSINESSES

TRAINING

16TRAINING

PROVIDERSDecember 2019

Alberta’s Deployment Scenario to 20307

MW DC

UTILITY 2,081

COMMUNITY 389

FARM/COMMERCIAL

224

RESIDENTIAL 5660

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

MW

DC

Dep

loye

d

Utility - Ground Mount (MW) Community Generation (Distribution Connected - Ground Mount) (MW) Farm - Ground Mount (MW) Commercial - Rooftop (MW) Residential - Rooftop (MW)

Utility

CommunityFarm/CommercialResidential

P. McGarrigle, L. Olien, C. Chiu, Alberta Solar MarketOutlook — A view to 2030, Version 5.0, November 25, 2017.

Deployment and Growth Rates based on study U.S. Solar Market Insight Full Report 2016 Year in Review 3

3 U.S. Solar Market Insight Full Report 2016 Year in Review, GTM Research and Solar Energy Industries Association.3,261 DEPLOYED

BY 2030

SOLAR PVMWDC

8

Red Deer 4,433

Lethbridge 3,642

Calgary 38,428

Edmonton 34,238

Potential Rooftop Installations by 2030

GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONPotential Ground-mount

Installations by 2030

Only about 10% difference in resource

across Alberta.

Within 10 km of existing transmission, distribution systems and substations

Most rooftop applications will be in the major citiesGround-mount will be along utility corridors

Six Life Stages of Solar PV9

Development Design Manufacturing Install Operations & Maintenance Decommission

Alberta’s 2030 Solar PV Value 10

$4.1

VALUE CHAIN MARKET VALUE SOLAR PV DEPLOYMENT

3,261SOLAR PVBILLION DOLLARS

VALUEBY 2030

SOLAR PVMWDC

DEPLOYEDBY 2030

Alberta’s Current Capacity to Access the Solar PV Market Value is 15% ($630M) of Total Market Value

11

ROOFTOP & GROUND-MOUNT (2019-2030)

CURRENT CAPACITY$630M

1 CURRENTCAPACITYALBERTA’s

Alberta Solar PV Market Value by Opportunity12

1 CURRENTCAPACITY

ALBERTA’s2 GROWTHOPPORTUNITY

ALBERTA’s

VALUE

3 VALUEEXTERNAL

Alberta’s Growth Opportunity Value13

• Growth Opportunity: $537 million. • Legal, Finance and Commercial, Technical Advisers, Site

and System Design segments: Over $100 million each

Development and Design

• Growth Opportunity: $1.3 billion. • Balance-of-system segment: $0.77 billion• Mounting system segment: $0.52 billion.

Manufacturing

• Growth Opportunity: $377 million• Electrical works segment: $218 million. Installation

2 GROWTHOPPORTUNITY

ALBERTA’s

VALUE

Potential Solar PV Jobs

JOB OPPORTUNITIES

15

Over 60 different types of jobs associated with the Solar PV industry.Jobs are diverse and leverage existing skills in Alberta.

Solar PV Specific Jobs: A Sample

2019-03-30

16

Manufacturing System Design Project Development Installation and Operations

• Computer Numerical Control Operator

• Advanced Manufacturing Technician

• Instrumentation and Electronics Technician

• Process Control Technician

• Instrumentation and Electronics Technician

• Quality Assurance Specialist

• Electrical Engineer

• IT Specialist• Residential PV System

Designer• Engineering Technician• Utility Interconnection

Engineer• Civil Structural Engineer• Power Systems Engineer• Solar Energy Systems

Designer

• Solar Site Assessor• Solar Marketing

Specialist• Solar Sales

Representative• Code official with Solar

Expertise• Electrical Inspector with

Solar Expertise• Building Inspector with

Solar Expertise• Solar Utility

Procurement Specialist

• Solar Assembler/Basic Installer

• Roofer with Solar Expertise

• Solar crew chief• Solar PV Installer• Solar Service Technician

(residential)• Solar PV Technician

(commercial/utility)• Electrician with Solar

Expertise

https://www.irecsolarcareermap.org/

17

Rooftop Groundmount TotalOperations 159.0 786.0 945.0Induced 546.0 1317.0 1863.0Other direct 573 1250 1823Manufacturing 387.0 916.0 1303.0Construction and Installation 1067.0 2755.0 3822.0

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,000

Jobs

in 2

030

(FTE

)

2,732

7,024

9,756 Construction and Installation employment is the largest sector.

Almost 9,800 Solar jobs required by 2030

TRAINING ASSESSMENT

Training Opportunities19

Specific courses are available for rooftop solar PV: Designing solar PV rooftop Installing solar PV modules Commissioning residential rooftop

installations Several institutions offer classes or

options that contain renewable energy or sustainability content.

Nine Rooftop Solar Training Providers (7 Alberta based)

20

Name Location Duration CertificationEverblue Online and USA Online and 2 days in-person NABCEP

Grid Works Energy Edmonton 5-day course CSA

Light up the World Edmonton 40 hours training N/A

NAIT Edmonton 2-year program N/ASolar Energy International Online and Colorado,

USA5-day course NABCEP

Solar Installers Canada Calgary 35 hours CSA

SAIT Calgary 40-hour course for certified journeyman electricians

N/A

Solar Energy Society of Alberta

Edmonton Various courses N/A

Northern Lakes College Slave Lake 5-day course CSA

Sustainability Training & RE Options

2019-03-30

21

Institution Course

MacEwan University Business 201 — Introduction to Sustainable BusinessLakeland College Renewable Energy and Conservation (Certificate/Diploma)

Lethbridge College Solar 101 for homeownersMedicine Hat College Introduction to SolarMount Royal Strategic Sustainability and the Energy IndustryRed Deer College Alternative Energy LabUniversity of Alberta Faculty of Engineering – Energy and Environment

Graduate courses – MEC E 643 Renewable energy Engineering & Sustainability

University of Calgary Continuing Education – BMC 252 – Renewable Energy TechnologiesFaculty of Engineering – ENG 355 Introduction to Energy and the EnvironmentFaculty of Engineering – ENG 507 Introduction to Sustainable DevelopmentFaculty of Engineering – ENG 575 Alternative Energy SystemsFaculty of Business – Energy Management 301 – Electricity ManagementFaculty of Business – FNCE 559 Renewable Power Generation FinanceGraduate degree – Masters in Sustainable Energy Development

Energy Efficiency Training & RE Options22

Name Provider Location Duration CertificationIntroduction to Measurement & Verification

Canadian Institute for Energy Training (CIET)

Various across Canada 1-day N/A

Efficient Building Envelope (EBE)

CIET Various across Canada 2-days N/A

Energy Efficiency for Building Operators & Maintenance Staff

CIET Various across Canada 2-days N/A

Certified RETScreenExpert (CRE)

CIET Various across Canada 3-days CRE

BOMA e-Energy Training

Building Owners & Managers Association of BC

Online 6-months N/A

Conclusions23

Worldwide, global solar PV market is one of the fastest growing technologies for power generation.

Alberta has an opportunity to be part of this global industry. Alberta solar PV market value could be over $4 billion by 2030,

with over $3 billion accessible to Alberta based businesses. Market opportunity can be increased by accessing export

opportunities. Taking key steps now will ensure that Alberta has a place on the

global stage for this industry sector that complements its current energy base.