alexander e. macdonald, ph.d . deputy assistant administrator for labs and cooperative institutes
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Global Change and its Effect on the Arctic. Alexander E. MacDonald, Ph.D . Deputy Assistant Administrator for Labs and Cooperative Institutes & Director, Earth System Research Laboratory National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration. TALK SUMMARY. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Alexander E. MacDonald, Ph.D.Deputy Assistant Administrator for Labs
and Cooperative Institutes & Director, Earth System Research Laboratory
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
Global Change and its Effect on the Arctic
Human caused climate change is accelerating.
Arctic: The place of maximum change.
Earth System Science can deliver better predictions.
NOAA and the national climate service.
TALK SUMMARY
Human caused climate change is accelerating.
Arctic: The place of maximum change.
Earth System Science can deliver better predictions.
NOAA and the national climate service.
TALK SUMMARY
The World Has Warmed
Widespread warming has occurred. Globally averaged, the planet is about 0.75°C warmer than it was in 1860, based upon dozens of high-quality long records using thermometers worldwide, including land and ocean.
IPCC WG1 (2007)Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon
The World Is Still Warm (post-IPCC 2007)
La Nina
www.realclimate.org Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon
What About 2008?
• Recently: Relatively cool in the Americas (due to La Nina in Pacific ocean) but warm elsewhere.
• 2008: likely to be in the top ten globally warmest years. (NCDC, UKMO, others) NASA GISS analysis
Temperature Change Compared to the Average for 1951-1980
Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon
Rising atmospheric temperature
Rising sea level
Reduction in NH snow cover
And……
Atmospheric water vapor increasing
Glaciers retreating
Arctic sea ice extent decreasing
Extreme temperatures increasing
………….
Warming is Unequivocal
Many Changes Signal A Warming World
IPCC WG1 (2007)Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon
CARBON DIOXIDE
• A critical greenhouse gas
• Dramatic increase in industrial era, ‘forcing’ climate change
• Higher concentration than for more than 600,000 years
Human Drivers of Climate Change: Unprecedented
IPCC WG1 (2007)Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon
Mauna Loa De-Seasonalized Post-Industrial Carbon Dioxide
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Pa
rts
per
Mill
ion
(log
arith
mic
sca
le)
30
40
50
60708090
100
150
200
300
Observations(278 ppm
pre-industrial subtracted)
2 X CO2
Exponential Increase:Doubling Time = 32 years
2 X CO2 = 2 x 278 ppm = 556 ppmYear at 556 ppm ~ 2050
Human caused climate change is accelerating.
Arctic: The place of maximum change.
Earth System Science can deliver better predictions.
NOAA and the national climate service.
TALK SUMMARY
Model projection for 2100
Continents Warm 40% more than oceans
IPCC AR4 Projected Patterns
of Precipitation Changes 2007
• Summer and Winter
There are large amounts of carbon in the Arctic that could be released in a rapidly warming world.
Permafrost (CCSM)Sept. sea-ice (CCSM)Sept. sea-ice (Observed)
One of the latest models of the Arctic predicts the end of the Arctic as we know it during the 2030s.
(Holland et al, 2006)
Human caused climate change is accelerating.
Arctic: The place of maximum change.
Earth System Science can deliver better predictions.
NOAA and the national climate service.
TALK SUMMARY
Arctic Research
Earth System Research Laboratory
Mission: To observe and understand the Earth system and to develop products through a commitment to research that will advance NOAA’s environmental information and service on global-to-local scales.
LEADEX 1992: Be careful when nature calls!!!
ARCPAC: NOAA airborne science.
Earth System models will allow improved prediction of long term climate.
Human caused climate change is accelerating.
Arctic: The place of maximum change.
Earth System Science can deliver better predictions.
NOAA and the national climate service.
TALK SUMMARY
• We are developing a comprehensive & coordinated NOAA Arctic effort.
• NOAA is working with partners now to develop official long-term sea ice projection products.
• NOAA is proposed to be the U.S. Government single authoritative source for climate information – National Climate Service.
Potential NOAA Role in Arctic Long Term Prediction
• Observed changes far exceed model projections
• Sea ice forecast improvements are essential to better understanding regional and global causes and consequences of Arctic change
• Decadal & centennial sea ice forecasts are not currently produced and many users & stakeholders need the information for planning
• Gov’t & commercial marine transportation safety
• Marine commerce operations / planning• Offshore oil & gas extraction• Coastal erosion / coastal zone management• Survival of ice-dependent species• Emergency & spill response
Fisheries & ecosystem management Environmental info for regulation & policy Security & governance Transportation / seasonal shipping routes Energy development Tourism industry
