alice chow_3d printing change the world_april 2012

8/13/2019 Alice Chow_3D Printing Change the World_April 2012

1/16

Thomas CampbellChristopher Williams

Olga IvanovaBanning Garrett

IDEAS. INFLUENCE. IMPACT.

T ransformative technologies are the stuff of history. Thesteam engine, the light bulb, atomic energy, themicrochipto name a fewunalterably changed ourworld. Such breakthroughs often take decades from initialinvention to changing the way we do things and theirpotential impact can be nearly unimaginable early in theprocess. It is doubtful that even Tim Berners-Lee in hiswildest dreams imagined what the World Wide Web woulddo to our global operating system when he invented it 20years ago.

Now another new technology is gaining traction that maychange the world. 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing (AM)is a revolutionary emerging technology that could up-end

the last two centuries of approaches to design andmanufacturing with profound geopolitical, economic, social,demographic, environmental, and security implications.

As explained in this brief, AM builds products layer-by-layeradditivelyrather than by subtracting material froma larger piece of material like cutting out a landing gearfrom a block of titaniumthat is, subtractivemanufacturing. This seemingly small distinctionaddingrather than subtractingmeans everything.

Assembly lines and supply chains can be reduced

or eliminated for many products. The nalproductor large pieces of a nal product like acarcan be produced by AM in one processunlike conventional manufacturing in whichhundreds or thousands of parts are assembled.And those parts are of ten shipped from dozens offactories from around the worldfactories whichmay have in turn assembled their parts from partssupplied by other factories.

Designs, not products, would move around theworld as digital les to be printed anywhere by anyprinter that can meet the design parameters. TheInternet rst eliminated distance as a factor inmoving information and now AM eliminates it for thematerial world. Just as a written document can beemailed as a PDF and printed in 2D, an STL

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT REPORT

Could 3D Printing Change the World?Technologies, Potential, and Implications of Additive Manufacturing

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT INITIATIVE

OCTOBER 2011

THE STRATEGIC FORESIGHT INITIATIVE

The Strategic Foresight Initiative seeks to enhanceunderstanding of the potential impact and policyimplications of long-term global trends, disruptivechange, and strategic shocks. The Initiative publishesarticles, blogs, and reports and convenes workshopsthat bring together policymakers, academic and thinktank specialists, and business leaders to analyzelong-term threats and challenges ranging from climatechange, water and food shortages, and resourcescarcities to the impact of urbanization and newtechnologies. It also analyzes how these trends

interact with social, political, economic, and securityfactors, often to produce disruptive changes to theglobal strategic environment affecting all nations. TheInitiative provides a hub for an expanding internationalcommunity of global trends experts that seeks toenhance public policy making in the United States andother key countries. The Initiative has been workingwith the US National Intelligence Council for the last sixyears on preparation of its long-term trends reports,including Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World , and the upcoming Global Trends 2030 report that will

be released in late 2012.
http://www.acus.org/publication/global-trends-2025-transformed-worldhttp://www.acus.org/publication/global-trends-2025-transformed-worldhttp://www.acus.org/publication/global-trends-2025-transformed-world


2/16

2 ATLANTIC COUNCIL

design le can be sent instantly to the other side ofthe planet via the Internet and printed in 3D.

Products could be printed on demand without theneed to build-up inventories of new products andspare parts.

A given manufacturing facility would be capable ofprinting a huge range of types of products withoutretoolingand each printing could be customizedwithout additional cost.

Production and distribution of material productscould begin to be de-globalized as production isbrought closer to the consumer.

Manufacturing could be pulled away frommanufacturing platforms like China back to thecountries where the products are consumed,reducing global economic imbalances as exportcountries surpluses are reduced and importingcountries reliance on imports shrink.

The carbon footprint of manufacturing andtransport as well as overall energy use inmanufacturing could be reduced substantially andthus global resource productivity greatlyenhanced and carbon emissions reduced.

Reduced need for labor in manufacturing could bepolitically destabilizing in some economies whileothers, especially aging societies, might bene t

from the ability to produce more goods with fewerpeople while reducing reliance on imports.

The United States, the current leader in AMtechnology, could experience a renaissance ininnovation, design, IP exports, and manufacturing,enhancing its relative economic strength andgeopolitical in uence.

The following article, co-authored with three of the top AMresearchers in the United States, provides a brief technicalintroduction to AM and then addresses some of the above

geopolitical, economic and environmental implications.

Banning Garrett

Background

AM offers a new paradigm for engineering design andmanufacturing which will have profound geopolitical,economic, demographic, environmental and securityimplications. AM is perhaps at the point of the earliestdevelopment of personal computers or at the beginnings of

the Internet and World Wide Web. In those previous cases,there was little if any sense of the game-changing impactand ubiquity of these emerging technologies fteen totwenty years in the future. But the Internet and PC examplesenable us to foresee a signi cant potential for this newtechnology, even if only rough outlines of that disruptivefuture can be sketched at this point. AM could prove tohave as profound an impact on the manufacturing world asthe PC and the Internet on the information world. It couldalso provide a step forward in environmental protection andresource productivity. Here we discuss the state of the ar t,

promises, limitations, and policy implications to AM,including how the ability to locally print almost any objectcould profoundly affect the course of the global economy.

I. Additive Manufacturing Basics

Traditional manufacturing has fueled the industrial revolutionthat has enabled our world today, yet it contains inherentlimitations that point to the need for new approaches.Manufacturing comes from the French word for made byhand. This etymological origin is no longer appropriate todescribe the state of todays modern manufacturingtechnologies, however. Casting, forming, molding, andmachining are complex processes that involve tooling,machinery, computers, and robots. Similar to a child cuttinga folded piece of paper to create a snow ake, thesetechnologies are subtractive techniques, in which objectsare created through the subtraction of material from aworkpiece. Final products are limited by the capabilities ofthe tools used in the manufacturing processes.

By contrast, AM is a group of emerging technologies thatcreate objects from the bottom-up by adding material one

cross-sectional layer at a time. 1 Revisiting the childhoodanalogy, this is conceptually similar to creating an objectusing building blocks or Legos . The generalized steps ofAM technologies are shown in Figure 1.

1 3D Printing is actually a subset of Additive Manufacturing. ASTM International de nes Additive Manufacturing as the process of joining materials to makeobjects from 3 D model data, usually layer upon layer, as opposed to subtractive manufacturing methodologies. [Standard Terminology for AdditiveManufacturing Technologies, ASTM F2792-10, June 2010.]


3/16

ATLANTIC COUNCIL 3

The AM process begins with a 3D model of the object,usually created by computer-aided design (CAD) softwareor a scan of an existing artifact. Specialized software slicesthis model into cross-sectional layers, creating a computerle that is sent to the AM machine. The AM machine then

creates the object by forming each layer via the selectiveplacement (or forming) of material. Think of an inkjet printerthat goes back over and over the page, adding layers ofmaterial on top of each other until the original works are3D objects.

There are several AM processes that are differentiated bythe manner in which they create each layer. One techniqueknown as Fused Filament Fabricationsee Figure 2involves extruding thermoplastic or wax material throughheated nozzles to create a parts cross sections. 2 Filamentfeedstock is guided by a roller into a lique er that is heated

to a temperature above the laments melting point. Thematerial is then able to ow freely through the nozzle. Whenthe material reaches the substrate, it cools and hardens.Once the layer is complete, the build platform is loweredone layer-thickness by the Z-stage and deposition of thenext layer begins. A secondary sacri cial material may alsobe deposited (and later removed) in order to support theconstruction of overhanging geometries.

Other AM technologies use different techniques for creatingeach layer. These range from jetting a binder into a

polymeric powder (3D Printing), using a UV (ultraviolet)laser to harden a photosensitive polymer(Stereolithography), to using a laser to selectively melt metalor polymeric powder (Laser Sintering).Moreover, recentdevelopments in the synthesis of end-use products allowfor increasing numbers of materials to be used

simultaneously. Think of an inkjet printer with six colorcartridges printing simultaneouslybut with differentmaterials such as various metals, plastics, and ceramics ineach cartridge.

AM offers distinct advantages. First, as a result of the

additive approach, AM processes are capable of buildingcomplex geometries that cannot be fabricated by any othermeans; thus, AM offers the utmost geometrical freedom inengineering design. Consequently, new opportunities existfor design in industries as diverse as automotive,aerospace, and bio-engineering. Second, it is possible withAM to create functional parts without the need for assembly,saving both production time and cost. Finally, AM offersreduced waste; minimal use of harmful chemicals, such as

Figure 1. Generalized Additive Manufacturing Process.

AM

Process

2 S. S. Crump, Apparatus and Method for Creating Three-Dimensional Objects, USA Patent, 1989.

Figure 2. Fused Filament Fabrication.


4/16

4 ATLANTIC COUNCIL

etching and cleaning solutions; and the possibility to userecycled materials.

Thus, with recent developments in the synthesis of end-useproducts from multiple materials (including metals, plastics,ceramics, etc.) and its inherent environmentally-friendlynature, AM has emerged as a transformative technology in

innovation-based manufacturing.

II. Status Quo of Additive Manufacturing

Initially, AM was referred to as rapid prototyping, and wasprimarily used to quickly fabricate conceptual models ofnew products for form and t evaluation. 3 An architect coulddesign a new building on a computer and print out a 3Dmodel to show a client or further re ne the design. Anautomotive engineer could design and print a prototypefront facia to a vehicle. As material properties and processrepeatability improved, AM technologies use has evolvedfrom solely creating prototypes, to creating parts forfunctional testing, to creating tooling for injection moldingand sand casting, and nally, to directly producing end-useparts. In 2009, Wohlers reported that 16% of AM processuse was for direct part production, 21% for functionalmodels, and 23% for tooling and metal casting patterns. 4

Industrial success stories of using AM for partproduction include:

Automobile components: While AM is not yetsuitable for mass production, it is increasingly usedto create components for high-end, specializedautomobiles. For example, engine parts forFormula 1 race cars have been fabricated usingdirect metal laser sintering.

Aircraft components: Low-volume production foundin the aerospace industry makes it another marketprimed for disruption from AM. While the partsresulting from direct metal AM processes are stillnot quite at critical components grade, there exist

many instances of AM parts being used in aircraft.One example is an environmental control systemduct on the F-18. The complexity offered by AMenabled the redesign of the assembly, andreduced the number of parts involved from sixteento just one. Whereas the traditionally manufacturedassembly must have its design tailored to t thecapabilities of the machine tools used to producethe part, the AM part is built precisely to ful llits function.

Custom orthodontics: Align Technology, Inc. usesAM to create clear, custom braces for hundreds ofthousands of patients across the globe.Speci cally, stereolithography is used to fabricatemolds from 3D scan data of each patients dentalimpressions. FDA-approved polymer is then castinto the molds to create the braces.

Custom hearing aids: Siemens and Phonak applylaser sintering to quickly fabricate custom hearingaids. Based on 3D scans of impressions of the earcanal, the resulting hearing aid ts perfectly in thepatients ear and is almost hidden from view.

III. The Future of Additive Manufacturing

Recent reports and developments suggest that AMdevelopment is gaining momentum and could be reachinga take-off point within the next decade. Hints of the future in

a recent Economist, cover story, Print me a Stradivarius,captured imaginations throughout the policy world. 5 A 2010Ganter report 6 identi ed 3D Printing as transformationaltechnology in the Technology Trigger phase of the HypeCycle 7 (i.e. , only 5-10 years from mass adoption). Whilethose involved in AM research might argue that it instead isemerging from a Trough of Disillusionment towards aSlope of Enlightenment, two recent signi cant advanceshave ignited broad interest in AM:

3 Conceptually, AM has existed since the time of raised relief maps, in which 3D terrain is approximated by stacking 2D layers. AM technology rst emergedin 1977, when Swainson suggested a method of creating 3D objects directly by using two electromagnetic radiation beams and a sensitive polymer thatsolidi es in the presence of the beam. This method is considered to be the ancestor of modern stereolithography. Over the past four decades, AMtechniques have further evolved. Researchers in the domains of mechanical engineering and materials science have focused on improving old and creatingnew techniques, as well as developing novel materials.

4 Terry Wohlers, Wohlers Report 2009 , ISBN 0-9754429-5-3.

5 Print me a Stradivarius, The Economist , February 10, 2011.

6 Jackie Fenn, Emerging Technology Hype Cycle 2010: Whats Hot and Whats Not, http://w ww.gartner.com/it/content/1395600/1395613/august_4_whats_hot_hype_2010_jfenn.pdf , accessed July 2011.

7 Jackie Fenn, Mastering the Hype Cycle: How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time, Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge, MA, 200 8.


5/16

ATLANTIC COUNCIL 5

Direct Metal AM: Signi cant improvements in thedirect additive manufacture of metal componentshave been made in the past ve years. Engineersare now able to fabricate fully-functionalcomponents from titanium and various steel alloysfeaturing material properties that are equivalent totheir traditionally manufactured counterparts. Asthese technologies continue to improve, we willwitness greater industrial adoption of AM for thecreation of end use artifacts.

Desktop-scale 3D Printers: As direct metal AM isbreaking longstanding technology acceptancebarrier related to materials, the recent emergenceof desktop-scale 3D printers is eliminating costbarriers. 8 Thanks to expiring intellectual propertyand the open-source (and crowd-source) nature ofthese projects, AM technology can now be

purchased for around $1,000. Because of this lowprice point, interest in 3D Printing has skyrocketedas more and more hobbyists are able to interactwith a technology that, in the past, was relegated tolarge design and manufacturing rms. This hasdemocratized manufacturing, thus resembling theearly stages of the Apple I s impact onpersonal computing.

Thus, the 3D printing revolution is occurring at both the highend and the low end, and converging toward the middle.One end of the technology spectrum involves expensivehigh-powered energy sources and complex scanningalgorithms. The other end is focused on reducing thecomplexity and cost of a well-established AM process tobring the technology to the masses. Major advances willcontinue to be made in both directions in the next veyears. Direct metal processes will continue to advance asprocess control and our understanding of fundamentalmetallurgy improves. These cutting-edge technologies willgain broader acceptance and use in industrial applicationsas the necessary design and manufacturing standardsemerge. On the other hand, the quality and complexity ofparts created by the desktop-machines will continue toimprove while the cost declines. These systems will alsosee broader dissemination in the next 5 years rst throughschool classrooms and then into homes. While these two

technical paths will continue to develop separatelywithseemingly opposing end goalswe can expect to see aconvergence, in the form of a small-scale direct metal 3Dprinter, in the next few decades.

IV. The Additive Manufacturing Advantage

Additive manufacturing offers a number of bene ts overtraditional manufacturing techniques ( e.g. , injectionmolding, casting, stamping, machining):

Increased part complexity: An immediatelyapparent bene t is the ability to create complexshapes that cannot be produced by any othermeans. For example, curving internal coolingchannels can be integrated into components.Fundamentally, AM processes allow designers toselectively place material only where it is needed.Taking inspiration from nature ( e.g. , coral, wood,bone), designers can now create cellular materialsstrong and stiff structures that are also lightweight(e.g. , Figure 3).

Digital design and manufacturing: All AMprocesses create physical parts directly from astandardized digital le (.STL), which is arepresentation of a three-dimensional solid model.These computer-controlled processes require a lowlevel of operator expertise and reduce the amountof human interaction needed to create an object. In

fact, the processes of ten operate unmonitored. Thisallows for overnight builds and dramaticallydecreases the time to produce productsthusreducing the time between design iterations.Furthermore, creating the part directly from thecomputer model ensures that the created partprecisely represents the designers intent and thusreduces inaccuracies found in traditionalmanufacturing processes.

Complexity is free: In metal casting and injectionmolding, a new product requires a new mold inwhich to cast the part. In machining, several toolchanges are needed to create the nished product.However, AM is a single tool processno matterthe desired geometry, there is no need to change

8 MakerBot CEO and Founder Bre Pettis recently appeared on the Colbert Report demonstrating the Thing-O-Matic.http://www.colbertnation.com/full-episodes/wed-june-8-2011-bre-pettis . See the MakerBot printing Colberts head: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5aeJNpmW5s , accessed July 2011.


6/16

6 ATLANTIC COUNCIL

any aspect of the process. This, in effect, makesshape complexity freethere is no additional costor lead time between making an object complex orsimple. As such, AM processes are excellent for

creating customized, complex geometries.Returning to the custom orthodontics application:the AM process is capable of building dozens ofunique molds in a single batch run, printing manysets of teeth molds at the same time. This type ofcustomization cannot be economically offered byany traditional manufacturing process.

Instant production on a global scale: Therepresentation of physical artifacts with a digital leenables rapid global distribution of products, thus

potentially transforming product distribution muchin the same way the MP3 did for music. The digitalle can be sent to any printer anywhere that canmanufacture any product within the designparameters of the le i.e. , which can print thesize, resolution, and materials called for in the le.

Waste reduction: AM processes are inherentlygreen. Since material is added layer by layer, onlythe material needed for the part is used inproduction. There is virtually zero waste. This lies in

stark contrast to traditional subtractivemanufacturing processes, such as machining,where the desired part is carved out of a stockbilletoften resulting in much of the nal productleaving behind wasted material chips (that are oftencoated in oily cutting uid).

V. Additive Manufacturing Limitations

While AM technologies offer critical advantages overtraditional manufacturing processes, there are inherentlimitations in the processes that keep them from being apanacea for every manufacturing problem. In their currentembodiments, AM processes are limited for massproduction purposes. On average, AM processes arecapable of creating a 1.5 inch cube in about an hour. Aninjection molding machine, on the other hand, is capable ofmaking several similar parts in under a minute. While AM

Is AM more or less green than traditional manufacturing?

+ Reduces material waste and scrap

+ Limits the amount of energy used+ More ef cient use of raw materials

+ Minimal harmful ( e.g. , etching) chemicals needed

+ Environmentally friendly product designs possible

+ Changes to design streamlined+ Carbon footprint of a given product reduced (via reduced waste and need for global shipping)

- But can it use recyclable materials?

- What about environment, health and safety (EHS) issues, especially with nanomaterials?

5 mm

Figure 3. Examples of cellular materials produced by Additive Manufacturing (VT=Virginia Tech).


7/16


8/16

8 ATLANTIC COUNCIL

applications in areas such as sensing, separations,plasmonics, catalysis, nanoelectronics, therapeutics, andbiological imaging and diagnostics.

Ivanova, et al. , recently performed a literature review of AMcombined with nanomaterials. 12 Table 1 provides asummary of those ndings. There are many opportunities in

the marriage of AM and nanotechnology, but alsosigni cant technical and scienti c challenges. The additionof metal nanoparticles generally decreases sinteringtemperatures, improves part density, and decreasesshrinkage and distortion of printed parts. Metalnanoparticles embedded into polymer materials can alsoprovide improved electrical conductivity in fabricatedobjects. Incorporation of carbon nanotubes in printingmedia offers a potential route to improving mechanicalproperties of the nal parts and to increasing electrical andthermal conductivities. The addition of carbon nanotubes in

bio-scaffolds can yield excellent enhancement of cellproliferation. Adding semiconductor and ceramicnanoparticles to printing media can lead to improvementsin mechanical properties of the nal parts. Ceramicnanoparticles can be effectively used for bone tissueengineering. Table 2 details the challenges in theapplication of nanomaterials to AM. Each of the AMmethods described has its own inherent limitations whennanoparticles are applied with the respective printing

media. In short, while the convergence of Nanotechnologywith AM holds promise, much research remains.

Similarly, the convergence of AM with bioengineeringtechnologies could further escalate AMs promise. In thepast decade, signi cant advances have been made inusing AM to print tissue scaffoldsbiocompatible

materials that, when implanted into the body and integratedwith biological cells, assist in the regeneration of tissue. Thegeometric freedom offered by AM allows for the creation ofscaffolds that are optimized to encourage cellular growth,while maintaining strength. In addition, recent advanceshave been made in direct printing of human tissue. Thesebio-printers could eventually permit the routine printing ofreplacement organs for transplant. 13

At the Wake Forest School of Medicine, researchers aredeveloping organ and tissue printing systems.Researchers at the Wake Forest Institute for RegenerativeMedicine have developed a way to use modi ed ink-jettechnology to build heart, bone and blood vessel tissues inthe lab. By using ink-jet technology, we are able to arrangemultiple cell types and other tissue components intopre-determined locations with high precision. Various celltypes are placed in the wells of a sterilized ink cartridgeand a printer is programmed to arrange the cells in apre-determined order. 14 As this technology advances,

12 O. Ivanova, C. Williams, T. Campbell (2011), Additive Manufacturing with NanotechnologyState of the Ar t, Challenges, and Promises, Progress inMaterials Science , invitation to submit ar ticle, in writing.

13 Printing Body Parts: Making a Bit of Me, The Economist , February 18, 2010.

14 Using Ink-Jet Technology to Print Organs and Tissue, http://www.wakehealth.edu/Research/WFIRM/Our-Story/Inside-the-Lab/Bioprinting.htm ,accessed July 2011.

Table 1. Summary of published literature of AM with nanomaterials.


9/16

ATLANTIC COUNCIL 9

doctors may reach the point that a patient could have theirown cells harvested and then a full replacement organdirectly printed in the lab. Organ rejection would thus beobviated, since the patients own cells would be used. Suchprocedures would revolutionize organ transplantationprocedures.

VII. Additive Manufacturing as a

Disruptive Technology

Although AM processes have been available on the marketfor over three decades, we are only now starting to see theirmore widespread adoption cf. , Figure 4. Spurred, in part,by the reduction of cost and the development of directmetal technologies, we are able to visualize a disruption inthe manner in which products are designed andmanufactured. With the ability to ef ciently manufacturecustom goods, it is possible that local manufacturing couldstart making a return to the United States cf., Figure 5.Thus, AM could dramatically reduce costs (both monetaryand environmental) related to production, packaging,distribution, and overseas transportation. AM technologyalso enables the design, and ef cient manufacture, ofpersonalized products, and could drive the transition frommass production to mass customization, in which each itemproduced is customized for the user at little or no additionalproduction cost.

Ultimately, AM has the potential to be as disruptive as the

personal computer and the internet. The digitization ofphysical artifacts allows for global sharing and distributionof designed solutions. It enables crowd-sourced design(and individual fabrication) of physical hardware. It lowersthe barriers to manufacturing, and allows everyone tobecome an entrepreneur.

Of course, with such disruption comes a need for newpolicy related to intellectual property and part piracy,perhaps through the development of new digital rightsmanagement solutions. In addition, there are legalquestions to answerif everyone is a designer, who is heldresponsible when their designed part fails? An excellent

exposition of the nuances possible within IP law relative toAM can be found in a recent report by Weinberg. 15 Trademarks, copyrights, liability, and patents may all comeinto play.

Table 2. Challenges in the use of nanomaterials in AM processes.

Products

Services

Figure 4. Estimated revenues (in millions of US dollars) forAdditive Manufacturing products and services worldwidehttp://wohlersassociates.com/growth2010.htm , accessedJuly 2011.

15 M. Weinberg, (November 2010), It will be awesome if they dont screw it up: 3D printing, intellectual property, and the ght over the next great disruptivetechnology, Public Knowledge, http://ww w.publicknowledge.org/les/docs/3DPrintingPaperPublicKnowledge.pdf , accessed August 2010.


10/16

10 ATLANTIC COUNCIL

VIII. Uncertain Pace of Change Over the

Next 20 Years

The pace of development and implementation of AM is, ofcourse, uncertain and likely to vary widely for different typesof manufactured products. Many consumer products maybe cheaper to mass produce by traditional methods andshipped to points of consumption for a long time.Nevertheless, there will likely be tipping points in variouselds of production at which it becomes necessary for

manufacturers of a given type of product to change to thenew process or lose their competitive edge and riskextinction. This will likely be an uneven process and couldtake many years longer in some areas than in others. Forexample, at what point could a product as complex as aniPhone or a jet engine be printed in a single process?

While no one has a proven estimate at this point, theprospect for such a revolution in manufacturing can be

foreseen. It seems likely that for such products, the shift willbe in spurts as cer tain parts are increasingly printed andthen assembled in a traditional fashion but with far fewerindividual parts to assemble; thus, the costs of productioncould fall signi cantly and supply chains could besimpli ed and shortened. There will also be the bene t ofneeding to print far fewer of a particular product because itis being manufactured closer to the consumer andon-demandbene ts which may more than compensatefor the cost-savings of mass production at one plant andglobal distribution from that production platform. Printing afew thousand iPhones on demand (and with instant updatesor different versions for each phone) at a local facility thatcan manufacture many other products may be far morecost effective than manufacturing ten million identicaliPhones in China and shipping them to 180 countriesaround the world.

IX. A Global Revolution in

Manufacturing Processes?

Additive Manufacturing could transform the manufacturingprocess in many critical ways, some of which are likely tohappen sooner than others and all of which will likely applyto different end products at different paces. But overall, AMwill bring production closer to the consumer and thusproduction at any given point will likely be required insmaller numbers. Moreover, AM will allow for printing ondemand without the need to build-up inventories ofproducts. Think e-books compared with paper books,

The convergence of the Internet, digitized music

and media players has had dramatic consequencesfor music copyright. 3D printing technology may

have similar implications for artistic copyright,

design right, trade marks and patents, but in a

rather more diverse legal framework.

[Bradshaw, et al. , (2010), The intellectual propertyimplications of low-cost 3D printing, scriptEd,7(1), 5-31.]

Figure 5. Additive Manufacturing could alter our manufacturing landscape.

Overseas TraditionalManufacturing andGlobal Distribution

v s .

Local AdditiveManufacturing andLocal Distribution

Potential Advantages: Production closer to the

consumer Printing on demand

without build-up ofinventories

Shipping of designsinstead of products

New industry for designsfor printing

New industry forproductions of AMsystems and cartridges


11/16

ATLANTIC COUNCIL 11

which have to be printed, shipped, stored, and returned(and often shredded) if unsold.

Not only will maintaining large inventories be unnecessary,but maintaining stockpiles of spare partsor shipping themurgentlywill no longer be necessary in many cases. Theability to print spare parts could have signi cant

implications for businesses, the military, and consumers.The military especially needs to maintain large inventoriesof spare parts on ships, foreign bases, and the battle front.Costs could be reduced by deploying printers andmaterials to make a wide range of spare parts, rather thankeeping all the possible spares at or near where they mightbe needed. The Defense Advanced Research ProjectsAgency (DARPA) is working on printing technologies,especially for spare parts. 16 Consumers could also have 3Dprinters at home to manufacture spare parts for householditemsfor which software designs could be downloaded

from the manufacturer.

Manufacturing could be pulled away from manufacturingplatforms like China and back to the countries where theproducts are consumed, from the home to other larger butlocal facilities. A given manufacturing facility would becapable of printing a range of products with minimalretooling. A primary limitation would be the size of theprinter necessary to print the itemyet there arecompanies working on printing small residential buildingsand Airbus is developing AM to print entire wings ofairplanes. Another limitation is the capability of the printer touse particular materials and resolutions required forthe product.

The rise of AM will likely lead to the re-invention of many oldproducts, as well as to extraordinary new innovations. SinceAM processes can print virtually anything that can bedesigned on a computerthus eliminating the limitationsposed by machine tools, stamping and moldingengineers and designers will no longer be limited in theirdesigns because of previous manufacturing technologies.This could lead to better products that competitors will not

be able to match without also adopting the new design andmanufacturing process.

AM is likely to provide a boost to innovation and couldprovide a major new impetus to bring manufacturing back

to the United States. Printing allows an engineer or designerto print her or his ideas immediately to assess the viabilityof the product and incorporate design changes. Instantincorporation of design changes and product improvementfor each printing would allow for the constant updating ofproducts or tailoring of each produced item to meet theneeds and speci cations of the user. This direct relationshipbetween the designer and the producta relationship thathas been strained by the past 200 years of industrialproduction methodswill be similar to the relationshipbetween software engineers and their products. As a result,interest in engineering and industrial design could bespurred again, as has happened in the eld of computerscience and software engineering over the last half century.

X. Advances in Environmental Protection

AM may inadvertently also help achieve some of the most

urgent environmental and resource goals facing theinternational community. The transportation andmanufacturing carbon footprint of many products could bereduced as designs, rather than products, are shippedaround the world. These designs will be digitally transferredto individuals or companies who will then print the productnearer to where it is purchased and used. Moreover, thecarbon footprint of the nal product would be furtherreduced by scaling back or eliminating complex supplychains of parts produced by dozens if not hundreds ofsuppliers scattered around the globe. In addition,

depending on the complexity of the product build, numberof components, and materials involved for a given product,the total energy required for production of nal product mayalso be reduced.

By signi cantly reducing waste in the manufacturingprocess, AM also could enhance global resourceproductivitythat is, getting more product out of thesame quantity of a given resource. This could ease thegrowing gap between supply and demand fornon-renewable resources ( e.g. , Rare Earth Metals). Sincethe printing process has almost zero waste compared withsubtractive manufacturing and other current processes,the same amount of steel, cement, plastic, and other rawmaterials will lead to more nal products, thus conservingprecious resources. Moreover, AM could enhance the

16 DARPAs disruptive manufacturing technologies program is described at http://www.darpa.mil/Our_Work/DSO/Programs/Disruptive_ Manufacturing_Technologies_(DMT).aspx , accessed July 2011. DARPA has been supporting the overall development of additive manufacturingprocesses.


12/16

12 ATLANTIC COUNCIL

ability to use recycled materials such as plastics andmetals, especially for lower end products.

Another source of waste that could be sharply reduced oreliminated is excess or unsold production, as well as thecost of storage of inventory and spare parts. This coulddiminish the direct monetary cost of maintaining inventory

of new products and spare parts. AM could also reduce theuse of toxic chemicals used in manufacturing processes.This will reduce the dif culty and expense of disposal ofthese chemicals, as well as reduce the overall need fortheir production.

XI. Possible Fundamental Shift in the

Global Economy

The widespread use of AM could profoundly affect theglobal economy. Production and distribution of materialproducts could begin to be de-globalized withmanufacturing of many goods closer to the consumer andon-demand. This localization of production could potentiallyreduce global economic imbalances as export countriessurpluses are reduced and importing countries reliance onimports shrink with a new form of import substitutiontaking hold.

AM will create new industries and professions. Productionof printers of all kinds and sophistication is likely to be anew industry with a growing customer base from individualhome printers to creation of manufacturing centers, printers

in local stores, and government agencies.17

The shift inglobal manufacturing to AM processes could potentiallyinvolve trillions of dollars in business over the comingdecades, including the value of products produced, thevalue of printers and supplies, and the value of professionalservices, including product engineering and designandlawyer fees earned in intellectual property (IP) protectionand dispute settlements. Protection of AM IP will likely be achallenge as designs for products potentially can be widelydisseminated and identical products produced bycompatible printersreplicating the problem with software

piracy. Moreover, product design for printing could be anew industry following the pattern of development of thesoftware industry over the last several decades asenthusiastic young engineers and entrepreneurs look tochange the worldand make their fortunesby seizing

the potential of this new industry. Finally, production anddistribution of printer cartridges of all sizes with a widevariety of materials will also likely be a growing industryand perhaps a major source of pro ts as it has been in the2D printing world for Hewlett-Packard and otherprinter makers.

The developing world could be a major bene ciary of AMproductionbut also a loser in manufacturing jobs forexport industries. Since AM allows products to be designedand printed that are more appropriate for local consumptionwith local materials, including recycled materials, thedeveloping world could reduce reliance on expensiveimports as well as make its own, more appropriate productsand reap the pro ts from this production. But there wouldalso likely be a signi cant shift in work force requirements,especially a signi cant reduction in manufacturing andassociated jobs.

Aging societies, especially in the developed world, mightbene t from AM since it would reduce the need for laborand for imported products as production. This couldsubstantially increase overall productivity of these societies,which would otherwise fall as the ratio of employed toretired shifted toward fewer workers to support more elderly.Some of the health bene ts from AM might also lower thecost of health care for the elderly, which, along withpensions, is expected to be a major drag on economicgrowth in coming decades.

XII. Disruptive Impact on Geopolitics

Trends in the global economy have been critical toperceptions of geopolitics. The shift of wealth and powerfrom West to East over the last decade has been especially

L o c a l i z at i o n o f ec o n o m i e s through AM could: Reduce global economic imbalances Use local materials that are more appropriate for local

consumption, including recycled materials Force relative decline in powerhouse production nations

such as China, Japan and Germany that have built theirprosperity and political power on export-led growth

Innovat ion -based Manufactu r ing through AM could: Shift work-force requirements, with likely reduction in

traditional manufacturing jobs Change economic power centers toward leaders in design

and production of AM systems and in design of products tobe printed

Fuel a renaissance in innovation, design, IP exports, andmanufacturing in the U.S., Europe and OECD countries

Drive developing countries more rapidly toward becomingdeveloped and less dependent on others

17 3D printing will be a $5.2 billion market by 2020.http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2011/06/02/ t_tt_3d_printer_systems.cnnmoney/?source=cnn_bin&hpt=hp_bn3 , accessed July 2011.


13/16

ATLANTIC COUNCIL 13

pronounced and is expected to continue for the inde nitefuture and to subsequently shape the geopolitics of the 21stCentury. 18 Other trends besides power shifts are also likelyto pose great challenges in the coming decades, especiallygrowing scarcities of water, energy, and non-renewablematerials in the face of a growing world population,increasing urbanization, and an expanding global middleclass making increasing demands onresource consumption.

AM could affect the trajectory of all these trends. Countrieslike China, Japan and Germany that have built theirprosperity and political power on export-led growth,especially of consumer products, could experience arelative decline as more production is shifted to consumercountries and demand for imports falls. It is also possiblethat companies in one country with superior product designwould export the design to their own printing facilities in the

target country, thus maintaining pro ts but reducing themovement of physical goods among countries. Theexporting countries would presumably also take advantageof AM to produce for their own people, and countries withlarge domestic markets such as China, India, Indonesiaand Brazil, may successfully transition to an AM economywithout reduction in prosperity, despite the loss of exportmarkets and disruptive change in manufacturing processes.

There could be a shift in economic power and prosperitytoward leaders in the design and production of printers andin design of products to be printed. The United States inparticular could experience a renaissance in innovation,

design, IP exports, and manufacturing if it becomes theleader in both production of AM printers and the designsthat are most desirable and marketable. Europe and othercountries in the Organization for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD) also could be early benefactorsfrom this manufacturing revolution. Developing countriescould more rapidly improve their economic conditions andreduce dependence on producers of manufacturedproducts such as China.

The trend toward increasing competition for resources andeven a zero-sum global economy could be slowed orreversed. In addition, international efforts to addressenvironmental challenges, especially climate change, couldreceive a boost as the cost to take ameliorative or mitigatingactions could be reduced.

The impact of AM on manufacturing, the environment, theglobal economy and geopolitics is likely to occur graduallyover several decades. This has been the case with theInternet and personal computers. As noted, the impact ofAM could go beyond transforming the manufacturingprocess and rebalancing the global economy, especially ifit contributed to changing the trajectories of some of themost worrisome trends in environmental degradation,resource scarcity and climate change. Perhaps this couldbe the most important geopolitical impact of additivemanufacturing.

XIII. Conclusions

AM is on track to move beyond a mere emergingtechnology into a truly transformative technology. The abilityto locally print almost any designable object would havestrong repercussions across our society. It is thus crucialthat technologists and policy makers begin a signi cantdialogue in anticipation of these challenges to our currentglobal economic status quo . While the future is cer tainlyhard to predict, prescience and advanced planning arenecessary in preparation for the disruptive technology ofAdditive Manufacturing.

Acknowledgements

Dr. Olga S. Ivanova gratefully acknowledges ICTAS for herfunding as an ICTAS postdoctoral associate.

AM could have signi cant implications in securityand terrorism:

Weapons manufacturing could become easierguns, bullets, bombs, etc., could become cheaperand more easily accessible

Weapons could be much more easily disguised(e.g. , improvised explosive devices-IEDs-that look

identical to non-weapons)

Terrorists could lose their dependency upondeveloped countries for their supplies

Implications will exist for counterfeiting/ anticounterfeiting

18 Ian Morris (2011) Why the West Rules - For Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future , Farrar, Straus and Giroux.


14/16

14 ATLANTIC COUNCIL

Authors

Dr. Thomas A. Campbell is Associate Director for Outreach and Research Associate Professor withthe Institute for Critical Technology and Applied Science (ICTAS, http://www.ictas.vt.edu ) at VirginiaTech. His research specialization is nanocomposites (synthesis, characterization and applications).Tom joined Virginia Tech from ADA Technologies, Inc., where he was Senior Research Scientist andNanotechnology Program Manager. Prior to ADA, he was with Saint-Gobain, Inc. as a Research

Scientist, and an Alexander von Humboldt Research Fellow at the University of Freiburg (Germany).Tom holds a Ph.D. and M.S. in Aerospace Engineering Sciences from the University of Colorado atBoulder (Boulder, Colorado) and a B.E. with Honors in Mechanical Engineering from VanderbiltUniversity (Nashville, Tennessee).

Dr. Christopher B. Williams is Assistant Professor with a joint appointment with the Department ofMechanical Engineering and the Department of Engineering Education at Virginia Tech. He is theDirector of the Design, Research, and Education for Additive Manufacturing Systems (DREAMS, http://www.dreams.me.vt.edu ) Laboratory and the co-director of Virginia Techs Center forInnovation-based Manufacturing ( http://www.cibm.ise.vt.edu/ ). He was recently named therecipient of the 2010 Emerald Engineering Outstanding Doctoral Research Award in the area of

Additive Manufacturing. Chris holds a Ph.D. and M.S. in Mechanical Engineering from the GeorgiaInstitute of Technology (Atlanta, Georgia) and a B.S. with High Honors in Mechanical Engineeringfrom the University of Florida (Gainesville, Florida).

Dr. Olga S. Ivanova is a Postdoctoral Associate with the Institute for Critical Technology and AppliedScience (ICTAS) at Virginia Tech. Her research is focused upon synthesis and applications ofnanocomposites via Additive Manufacturing systems. She is a member of the American ChemicalSociety (ACS) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). Her Ph.D.research was on electrochemical stability of metal nanostructures. She holds a Ph.D. and M.S. inAnalytical Chemistry from the University of Louisville (Louisville, Kentucky) and a M.S. in PhysicalChemistry from the Perm State University (Perm, Russia).

Dr. Banning Garrett is the Director of the Asia Program at the Atlantic Council(http://www.acus.org ), a position he has held since March 2009 and held previously from January2003 through January 2007. He also is director of the Atlantic Councils Strategic Foresight Projectand cooperation with the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in production of the NICs unclassi ed,quadrennial long-term global trends assessments. Before joining the Council in January 2003,Banning was a consultant for 22 years to the Department of Defense and other US Governmentagencies. Previously, was a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies andan Adjunct Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. Garrett has writtenextensively on a wide range of issues, including long-term global trends, US-China relations andcooperation on climate change, energy, and other strategic issues; US strategy toward China;

Chinese views of the strategic environment; globalization and its strategic impact; US defense policyand Asian security; and arms control. Garrett holds a Ph.D. from Brandeis University (Waltham,Massachusetts) and a B.A. from Stanford University (Palo Alto, California).


15/16

ATLANTIC COUNCIL 15

The Atlantic Councils Board of Directors

CHAIRMAN*Chuck Hagel

CHAIRMAN,

INTERNATIONAL ADVISORY BOARDBrent Scowcroft

PRESIDENT AND CEO

*Frederick Kempe VICE CHAIRS

*Richard Edelman*Brian C. McK. Henderson*Richard L. Lawson*Virginia A. Mulberger*W. DeVier PiersonTREASURERS

*Ronald M. Freeman*John D. Macomber

SECRETARY *Walter B. Slocombe

DIRECTORS

*Robert J. AbernethyOdeh AburdeneTimothy D. AdamsCarol C. AdelmanHerbert M. Allison, Jr.Michael A. Almond*Michael AnsariRichard L. Armitage Adrienne Arsht*David D. AufhauserZiad BabaRalph BahnaDonald K. BandlerLisa B. Barry*Thomas L. BlairSusan M. BlausteinJulia Chang BlochDan W. BurnsR. Nicholas Burns

*Richard R. BurtMichael CalveyDaniel W. ChristmanWesley K. ClarkJohn CraddockTom Craren*Ralph D. Crosby, Jr.Thomas M. CulliganGregory R. Dahlberg

Brian D. Dailey*Paula DobrianskyMarkus DohleLacey Neuhaus DornConrado DornierPatrick J. DurkinEric S. EdelmanThomas J. EdelmanThomas J. Egan, Jr.Stuart E. EizenstatDan-ke EnstedtJulie FinleyLawrence P. Fisher, IIBarbara Hackman Franklin*Chas W. FreemanJacques S. Gansler

*Robert GelbardRichard L. Gelfond*Edmund P. Giambastiani, Jr.*Sherri W. GoodmanJohn A. Gordon*C. Boyden Gray*Stephen J. HadleyMikael HagstrmIan HagueHarry HardingRita E. Hauser Annette HeuserMarten H.A. van Heuven*Mary L. HowellBenjamin HubermanLinda Hudson*Robert E. HunterRobert L. HutchingsWolfgang IschingerRobert Jeffrey*A. Elizabeth Jones*James L. Jones, Jr.George A. JoulwanStephen R. KappesFrancis J. KellyL. Kevin KellyZalmay KhalilzadRobert M. KimmittJames V. Kimsey*Roger KirkHenry A. KissingerFranklin D. KramerPhilip LaderMuslim Lakhani

David LevyHenrik Liljegren*Jan M. LodalGeorge LundIzzat MajeedWendy W. MakinsWilliam E. MayerBarry R. McCaffreyEric D.K. MelbyRich MerskiFranklin C. Miller*Judith A. Miller Alexander V. MirtchevObie Moore*George E. MooseGeorgette Mosbacher

Sean OKeefeHilda Ochoa-BrillembourgPhilip A. Odeen Ahmet Oren Ana PalacioTorkel L. Patterson*Thomas R. Pickering*Andrew Prozes Arnold L. PunaroKirk A. RadkeJoseph W. RalstonNorman W. RayTeresa M. ResselJoseph E. Robert, Jr.Jeffrey A. RosenCharles O. RossottiStanley RothMichael L. RyanMarjorie M. ScardinoWilliam O. SchmiederJohn P. SchmitzJill A. SchukerKiron K. Skinner Anne-Marie Slaughter Alan SpenceJohn M. Spratt, Jr.Richard J.A. SteelePhilip Stephenson*Paula SternJohn StudzinskiWilliam H. Taft, IVJohn S. TannerPeter J. TanousPaul Twomey

Henry G. Ulrich, IIIEnzo ViscusiCharles F. WaldJay WalkerMichael WalshMark R. WarnerJ. Robinson WestJohn C. WhiteheadDavid A. WilsonMaciej WituckiR. James WoolseyDov S. Zakheim Anthony C. Zinni

HONORARY DIRECTORSDavid C. AchesonMadeleine K. AlbrightJames A. Baker, IIIHarold BrownFrank C. Carlucci, III*William J. PerryColin L. PowellCondoleezza RiceEdward L. RownyJames R. SchlesingerGeorge P. ShultzJohn WarnerWilliam H. Webster

LIFETIME DIRECTORS

Lucy Wilson BensonDaniel J. Callahan, IIIHenry E. CattoKenneth W. DamStanley EbnerCarlton W. Fulford, Jr.Geraldine S. KunstadterJames P. McCarthy*Jack N. MerrittSteven MullerStanley R. ResorWilliam Y. SmithHelmut SonnenfeldtRonald P. VerdicchioCarl E. VuonoTogo D. West, Jr.

*Members of the Executive CommitteeList as of September 2, 2011


16/16

16 ATLANTIC COUNCIL

1101 15 TH S TREET , NW, W ASHINGTON , DC 20005 (202) 463-7226

WW W .ACUS .OR G

The Atlantic Council of the United States is a non-partisan organization

that promotes constructive US and European leadership and engagement in

international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic community in

meeting todays global challenges.

alice chow_3d printing change the world_april 2012

Documents