ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS YMCAREPORT

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AND DATA ANALYTICS GROUPDIVISION OF THE RESEARCH EVALUATION AND DATA SCIENCE DIVISIONYMCA OF THE USA

November 17, 2017

© [2017] YMCA of the USA

CONTEXT

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In October 2017, Alleghany Highlands reached out to request information that would assist them in acquiring a $50,000 grant to allow them to continue their programs and services to a community in need. As a result of our initial discussion with Jennifer Unroe, it was decided that a more thorough analysis was needed to not only assist Alleghany with the grant request but to also provide them insights as to ways to improve overall operational performance

The following analysis is Phase I of a multi-phase approach.

OBJECTIVE

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There are two key objectives in this first phase of the project

1. The Alleghany Highlands YMCA is seeking to earn a government grant of $50,000. The information provided in this report is to help support their initiative to earn the grant.

2. In addition to initial questions on donor trends, this report hopes to serve as a starting point to a larger phase process to better understand how to adapt to a declining population.

SOURCES USED

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The following avenues were used in order to collect and report the data:

• Google Maps– for market landscape• ArcGIS mapping software – Current Member maps• Current Member Report – Alleghany Highlands YMCA

current member report • Esri Community Analyst mapping software – Current

Member Maps• EasiDemographics – Demographic 1,3,5,10,15 mile

analysis surrounding YMCA• Annual Report Data – 2005 – 2016 annual YMCA annual

report data

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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1. BACKGROUND

2. ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS

– Demographic information

– Like Providers

– Current members

– Market Penetration

3. DETAILED FINDINGS

– Membership

4. INSIGHTS

5. APPENDIX

BACKGROUND

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Since 2010, Census estimates show Covington, Virginia’s population declining by 7.4% to 5518. Alleghany County is estimated to have population loss of 4.0% since 2016, declining to 15,595.

It is heavily dependent on its largest employer, a Westrock paper packaging plant.

YMCA

Demographic Report

By Branch

1 Miles 3 Miles 5 Miles 10 Miles 15 Miles

Population (1/1/2017) - 2,249 5,584 19,682 24,886

Households (1/1/2017) - 954 2,487 8,493 10,773

Median Household Income -$ 42,150$ 43,480$ 46,658$ 48,081$

Median Age 0 44.4 44.8 44.8 45.2

Ethnicity

White Population, Alone - 90% 89% 90% 91%

Black Population, Alone - 7% 9% 8% 7%

Asian Population, Alone - 1% 0% 0% 0%

American Indian and Alaska Native Population, Alone- 0% 0% 0% 0%

Hispanic Population - 1% 1% 1% 1%

Other Race Population, Alone - 1% 0% 0% 0%

Age Groupings

0 to 5 Years - 6% 6% 6% 6%

6 to 11 Years - 8% 8% 7% 7%

12 to17 Years - 9% 9% 8% 8%

18 to 24 Years - 7% 7% 7% 7%

25 to 34 Years - 9% 9% 10% 9%

35 to 44 Years - 13% 13% 12% 13%

45 to 54 Years - 14% 15% 15% 16%

55 to 64 Years - 15% 15% 15% 15%

65 to 74 Years - 11% 11% 11% 11%

75 to 84 Years - 6% 6% 6% 6%

85 Years and Older - 3% 3% 3% 3%

Area Radius

Alleghany Highlands YMCA -

101 YMCA Way, Covington VA 24426

DEMOGRAPHICS

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With approximately 945 member units at the Alleghany Highlands YMCA, it appears that, today, there are good mix of core population groupings.

Key items to look at within this demographic chart:

1. Fairly average Median HH income

2. The Caucasian population appears to be the dominant presence within a 15 mile radius.

3. Age Groupings represent two critical highlights that indicate strong market potential today:

1. Strong youth population,

2. Strong population 35 –54 years of age –typically representing your family market

3. Strong senior population*No demographic information was available for under 3 miles

proximity to the YMCA

LIKE PROVIDERS

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Very few like providers in the area – YMCA has the only indoor pool in county, providing unique value to surrounding area

Health & Wellness Specialty Child Care

-Tank’s Gym 24/7 Fitness Center-Greenbrier Sports Performance Center-Doremus Gymnasium (University)-Kaizen Wellness-Fitness Your Way Rockbridge

TOTAL=5

-American Freestyle Martial Art-American Freestyle Karate-Halestone Dance Studio

TOTAL=3

-Yellow Brick Road Early Learning Center -Edgemenont Nursery School-Headstart/Tap-Tap

TOTAL = 3

ALLEGHANY CURRENT MEMBER UNIT PLOT

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*Inclusive of all member types provided by 10/2017 Alleghany Highlands Current Member Report

ALLEGHANY MEMBER UNIT CONCENTRATION

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*Drive time 0-10, 10-20, 20-30 min. Rings are 5, 10, 15 miles surrounding Alleghany Highlands YMCA

The closest YMCA, Rockbridge Area YMCA, under the YMCA of Virginia’s Blue Ridge association, is a 37 minute drive time away.

Potential collaboration with this Y may be a possible exploration

Alleghany Highlands YMCA

Rockbridge Area YMCA

37 minute drive

MEMBER UNIT DISTRIBUTION AND MARKET PENETRATION

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Y Location Travel Time Total Units % of Total Penetration Rate

Alleghany Highlands YMCA 30+ Minutes 79 8%

20-30 Minutes 80 8% 3.56%

10-20 Minutes 508 54% 11.33%

0-10 Minutes 280 30% 10.17%

Most members are coming from a 5-10 minute drive time. Strong market penetration within a 20 minute drive time.

Phase 2 would break apart by age groupings – What is the market penetration by age. Who are you currently serving?

ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS

TOPLINE INSIGHTS

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• Since 2007, Alleghany’s contributed income share has risen 14.4%

• 55% increase of donors since 2013, however still only making up 5% of total membership

• Annual Campaign revenue for Alleghany highlands decreased 66% since 2013

DETAILED FINDINGS

DONATION TRENDS

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Since 2007, Alleghany’s contributed income share has risen 14.4%

Alleghany Highlands built a better base of member donors with an increase of 55% since 2013. However, as of 2016, only 5% of members are donating to the Alleghany Y with only one reported funder contributing more than $5,000 dollars to the annual campaign

Annual Campaign revenue for Alleghany highlands decreased 66% since 2013, which may imply the monetary value of individual contributions has decreased or total donors have decreased

Individual and organizational data is necessary to provide a better look at who donors are and look for potential opportunities for more donor relations

*NOTE: All data reported above is relied upon self-reported data received through the annual reporting process.

INSIGHTS

Market: Overall, it looks as though Alleghany Highlands YMCA has a strong support from their current market with a market penetration of 22% within 20min drive.

Currently, Alleghany Highlands YMCA is relying more heavily on their donor base for operations (raised 14%). With the decline in the surrounding population and memberships, the Y faces the challenge of maintaining revenue to continue operations.

As proposed, a government grant to subsidize the current expenses should assist in the gaps, however, a more robust analysis of operational efficiency may offer a more permanent solution to adapt to the changing environment.

Next Steps• Look into other possible untapped age demographics to determine which

services the Y should be focusing on – relevancy is key• Donor base analysis – looking at donor trends within the community served

who are your major donors, individual contributions and map where the donors are coming from.

• Pricing analysis / financial aid overview to determine the right alignment to ensure growth of both member and program participation

INSIGHTS AND NEXT STEPS

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Data Requested:

• Donors – both individual and organization over past 5 years

• YMCA program offerings and participants over the past 5 years - Template

• Profit and Loss Statement by department over past 5 years

• Rates and new member sales over past 5 years – Template

• Monthly Promotional Calendar by Year

DATA REQUESTED

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CONTACT INFORMATION

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FOR QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS REPORT PLEASE CONTACT:

Mario TresconeSenior Director, Business Intelligence and Data AnalyticsYMCA OF THE USABusinessIntelligence@ymca.net

Christina ArdenData Reporting AnalystResearch, Evaluation and Data Sciences DepartmentYMCA OF THE USABusinessIntelligence@ymca.net

THANK YOU