alliance trust plc · alliance trust is one of the uk’s oldest and largest investment trusts....

This article was commissioned by Alliance Trust plc and is a marketing document. It should be considered non-independent research as defined in COBS 12.3.2R

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Alliance Trust is one of the UK’s oldest and largest

investment trusts. Launched in 1888, the trust has

total assets of more than £3.3bn, and has delivered a

growing dividend to shareholders every year over the

last 49 years.

Over the past couple of years, the board of Alliance

Trust has been looking at ways to improve the for-

tunes of the trust, and make it more relevant to inves-

tors of today (of all types). Whilst retaining its focus on

global equities and aiming to generate returns over

the medium to long term, the trust has announced

proposals for a material change to the way it will

achieve this - moving from a directly invested model

to a ‘multi-manager’ approach.

Multimanager funds use a number of ‘portfolio man-

agers’ among whom responsibility for management of

different parts of the trust’s assets is divided. Eight

equity managers, each specialists in their field, will be

selected under global investment management spe-

cialist Willis Towers Watson (WTW). Willis Towers

Watson’s core belief is that active management is the

key to long-term returns and that “genuinely skilled

active managers” do exist. The firm places great em-

phasis on research and due-diligence in order to iden-

tify such managers. Typically, WTW favours active

managers that run concentrated portfolios and a high

‘active share’ – meaning their portfolios are very dif-

ferent to the index they aim to beat. By sub-dividing a

given portfolio between differing active managers,

they hope that diversification will lead to smoother,

more consistent returns for investors. More important-

ly, they believe that this will lead to the portfolio

achieving the performance target more consistently.

Each of the managers chosen by WTW will run a fo-

cused global equity sub-portfolio with a high active

share. One of the managers will also run a more di-

versified emerging markets portfolio. With all portfoli-

os combined the trust’s overall risk profile is unlikely

to change, as each manager is expected to be lowly

correlated with the rest. The performance target for

the overall equity portfolio – to outperform the MSCI

Proposals have been tabled to move Alliance Trust from a directly invested model to a multi-

manager approach.

Eight managers, appointed by Willis Towers Watson (WTW), will each run portfolios of approx. 20 of each manager’s ‘best ideas’ selected across the globe and the board have doubled the per-

formance target to benchmark + 2%.

Willis Towers Watson are a major institutional investment consultant globally, with $2.3trn as-

sets under advice and a manager research team of some 115 people. They aim to identify the best managers globally.

The board have reiterated their commitment to a progressive dividend, but also demonstrated their determination to tackling the discount ‘materially’ through buy-backs, having bought back 5% of the company since the announcement.

Shareholders will be given the opportunity to vote in support of the proposed changes at a gen-

eral meeting in February.

Alliance Trust plc (ATST)

Summary


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All Country World Index – will be doubled from 1% to

2% net of costs, over rolling three year periods.

Currently the trust offers a net dividend yield of 2%,

well above the 1.5% weighted average for the AIC

Global sector in which it sits. The board has renewed

its commitment to a progressive dividend. The board

has also restated its commitment to undertake share

buybacks ‘in a more proactive manner than in the

past’, demonstrating its determination by so

far buying back more than 5% of the company since

the announcement.

The latest evolution at Alliance Trust means that it

now sits alongside Witan in offering a manager of

managers’ approach in the investment trust universe.

Alliance Trust, however, will have a far more focused

portfolio with around 200 stocks (as opposed to the

450+ held by Witan) and will be considerably cheaper

with an ongoing charge targeted to be 0.6% or less at

current scale, compared to Witan’s 0.72% (or 0.99%

including performance fees). Further, while Witan typi-

cally has exposure to the standard portfolios of man-

agers in which it invests – Alliance Trust’s underlying

portfolios will all be segregated accounts specifically

managed on the trust’s behalf and designed for them

as concentrated ‘best ideas’ portfolios.

Witan’s fortunes have turned around significantly

since they adopted the manager of managers’ ap-

proach, and Alliance Trust’s discount narrowed on the

announcement of the change in strategy, reflecting

the market’s positivity on the board’s initiative, and is

now comparable to Witan (5.5% discount). Sharehold-

ers will be given the opportunity to vote in support of

the proposed changes at a general meeting in Febru-

ary.

Portfolio

The proposed changes to the management of the

trust will result in a very different equity portfolio. This

new portfolio will reflect and comprise the concentrat-

ed ‘best ideas’ picks of a range of eight managers

who themselves have been selected by Willis Towers

Watson (WTW).

The process will be led by an investment committee

chaired by Craig Baker, WTW global chief investment

officer, and including Stuart Gray, a senior member of

the research team, and the two co-portfolio manag-

ers, David Shapiro and Mark Davis.

The portfolio will have geographic and sector weight-

ings that are similar to those of the MSCI All Country

World Index through time, as part of the objective of

returns being driven mostly by stock selection deci-

sions rather than macro or industry factors. This not-

withstanding, overall regional and sectoral asset allo-

cations will be actively managed by WTW by allocat-

ing and reweighting to different sub-portfolio manag-

ers.

We compared a provisional portfolio projection made

by WTW at the end of November 2016 to a factsheet

for Alliance Trust published at the same time, and as

the tables below show, the new portfolio will look dif-

ferent to the existing Alliance Trust portfolio, particu-

larly in terms of sectoral exposure – with a much low-

er weighting currently projected toward technology

and higher weightings projected toward financials and

consumer services in particular, the latter being the

provisional portfolio’s largest overweight.

On a geographic basis, there is likely to be less of a

change, the main difference being slightly lower expo-

sure to the US and UK.

On a stock name basis, the proposed changes will

represent a very different portfolio to that currently

owned by the trust. Initially a transition manager will

“The proposed changes to the

management of the trust will result

in a very different portfolio...


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be appointed to oversee an orderly sale of the exist-

ing portfolio, and to make the initial investments re-

quired by the contracted managers for each of the

sub portfolios. This process is unlikely to take more

than a month or two, and will incur an explicit one off

cost of around 0.3%, though there may be other inci-

Provisional portfolio proposed at end November 2016

Source: Willis Towers Watson, ICB, Factset, Managers

Actual portfolio as at end November 2016

Source: Factset/Alliance Trust


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k dental costs connected to the change. However, off-

setting this, we understand that WTW expect the trad-

ing costs of the portfolio in the ensuing months may

be lower, reducing the net cost impact of the portfolio

change.

The portfolio can also be viewed as a portfolio of dif-

ferent ‘funds’, and broken down by underlying fund

manager and their focus / style of management as

any multi-manager portfolio would. As the table be-

low shows, the eight initially selected managers offer

a mix of growth, value and quality styles.

Each manager will manage the trust’s assets via seg-

regated accounts, specifically designed for WTW as

concentrated ‘best ideas’ portfolios. The overall risk

profile of the portfolio, which will be monitored by

WTW, is expected to remain the same as it is current-

ly but the board anticipates that – despite the high

conviction approach each manager will adopt – stock

specific risk will be lower than it is currently given the

much higher number of holdings (200, compared with

60 at present). We understand that the correlation of

‘active returns’ between each manager will be “very

low” – and monitored closely as the portfolio matures.

Manager Portfolio focus Holdings Style

River & Mercantile Global 20 Value

Jupiter Asset Management Global with an income bias 20 Value

Lyrical Partners Global with a US bias 20 Value

Sustainable Growth Advisers Global 20 Growth

CGQ Partners Global + Emerging markets 70 Growth

Veritas Global 20 Growth

FPA Global 20 Quality

Black Creek IM Global 20 Quality

Manager breakdown

Each of the managers will run a single focused global

equity portfolio, but there will be different expectations

for some of them, tailored to suit the managers’ char-

acteristics. Jupiter’s Ben Whitmore, for example, is a

value investor who relies on fundamental analysis to

identify companies which are ‘cheap’ in absolute terms

and, because of his natural bias toward income pro-

ducing stocks, his portfolio is expected to be one of the

drivers of the trust’s underlying income. The only ex-

ceptions to the “20 best ideas on a global basis” model

will be GQG Partners, a Florida based asset manage-

ment business led by former Vontobel CIO Rajiv Jain,

who will run the Trust’s emerging markets exposure

via a 70 stock portfolio.

Going forward, WTW say the aim is for assets to be

split roughly equally between the eight managers, alt-

hough their differing risk levels and correlations with

the other managers will be taken into account to set

the exact weighting. Rebalancing will likely only take

place should any of the sub portfolios deviate signifi-

cantly from the WTW target model at any point in time.

They expect a ‘turnover’ of managers in the region of

one-in/one-out every twelve to eighteen months.

Alliance Trust Savings, the trust’s savings platform

subsidiary, will remain as an asset on the Trust’s

books with its own board, as now. The platform, which

has £12bn under administration, is now profitable and

growth in the number of customers (not in assets - it


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k charges a flat fee) will contribute higher revenues,

and now profits, which may over the longer term help

to bring down the trust’s ongoing charge. The plat-

form was valued at £54m (1.6% of NAV) at 31 De-

cember 2015 and a new valuation will be published

with the next report and accounts in March.

A small portion of the portfolio amounting to around

3% of total assets will not be allocated to the sub-

managers. This consists of a mineral rights holding

which will continue to be managed directly by miner-

als specialist H.P. Drought & Co in San Antonio, and

a private equity portfolio which is in wind-down mode,

with cash-flows to be managed by WTW.

Performance

On a NAV basis, Alliance Trust has underperformed

its benchmark and the average trust in the AIC Global

sector over one, five and ten years. Given the over-

haul which is taking place, any reference to past per-

formance is of limited use.

Source: Morningstar

Alliance Trust in its new form will target outperfor-

mance of the MSCI All Country World Index of at least

2% per annum over a rolling three-year period from

the equity portfolio (previously this was 1% over the

same benchmark). WTW runs an institutional fund

along similar lines as that proposed which was

launched in 2015 – the $600m Willis Towers Watson

Global Equity Focus Fund (GEFF) - which has outper-

formed its benchmark by 2.7% per annum (3.9% cu-

mulative) from inception on 17 August 2015 to the

latest data available 11 January 2017, net of all un-

derlying manager fees and fund expenses. The group

also runs an advisory portfolio for a large charitable

foundation client, upon which the thinking behind the

Global Equity Focus Fund is based – which has deliv-

ered more than 3% per annum outperformance over

benchmark over the last five years to 30 September

2016.

Each manager will largely ignore the benchmark in-

dex and consider risk primarily in absolute terms.

However, WTW will also manage risk at the combined

level, both in absolute terms and relative to the index,

through their choice of managers and the weightings

assigned to each. WTW will look to ensure that stock

selection is the key driver of returns as that is the real

skill-set of each of the managers chosen, and there-

fore country and industry weightings are unlikely to

deviate significantly from the index at most points in

time.

It should be noted that because of the above, the

portfolio will remain close to fully invested most of the

time (albeit the managers do have some freedom to

hold cash), and therefore limited emphasis will be

placed on short-term capital protection during periods

when the index is in negative territory.

Dividend

Successive boards have delivered rising dividends

(for 49 years now) to shareholders. The more immedi-

ate past has seen no change to this pattern, and as

the graph below shows, over the past ten years the

trust has meaningfully earned more than it has paid

out in dividends. This means that the revenue reserve

– money kept behind which can be used to support

the dividend during periods when underlying portfolio

income is lean – is in a healthy state.


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k The board has reaffirmed its ambition to maintain the

trust’s 49-year record of year-on-year dividend

growth. Clearly, over the long run, it will be up to

WTW and the underlying managers to deliver the in-

come to support this dividend. However, over the

short run we believe that the board will look to do its

utmost (using reserves should it need to) to protect

the many retail shareholder’s income levels by using

its bulging revenue reserves. In the past, the trust has

never had to use reserves to bolster the dividend.

Source: Alliance Trust

Gearing

Gearing – a feature of investment trusts which means

borrowing money to invest on behalf of investors,

which can accentuate returns as well as losses – has

been a feature of Alliance Trust for a number of

years, and over the past three has rarely dipped be-

low 10% (source: Morningstar). The company has a

nominal £100m of 15 year fixed rate borrowings, with

the rest a very flexible bank loan. Under the previous

setup, gearing was used tactically and tended to in-

crease when the managers saw opportunities on the

table, and decrease when they felt more bearish. The

facility allows the manager to borrow up to 15% with-

out consulting the board, and a further 15% with the

board’s permission, but the trust has rarely seen gear-

ing in excess of 18%. This facility remains in place

and will continue to be used in accordance with the

board’s macro view.

A new feature is the possibility that gearing may be

employed directly via allocation of funds to each of

the sub portfolios, or used to offset macro risk by in-

vesting in ETFs. Derivatives may also come into play

as a means to manage risk in the future, but there are

no plans for derivatives in the portfolio at this stage.

The underlying portfolios will not be allowed to gear

up themselves.

Management

WTW’s core belief is that high conviction active man-

agement is the key to long-term returns and that

“genuinely skilled active managers” do exist. Typical-

ly, therefore, WTW favours active managers that run

concentrated portfolios and have high active share,

and by sub-dividing a given portfolio between different

active managers with different investment styles, it

hopes this in-built diversification will lead to smoother,

more consistent returns for investors.

The firm places great emphasis on due diligence in

order to identify such managers. Craig Baker, the

global Chief Investment Officer at WTW will lead the

relationship and chair the investment committee that

will be responsible for the portfolio. He has 22 years

investment experience.

Others on the investment committee include David

Shapiro who will be lead portfolio manager for Alli-

ance Trust. Senior researcher Stuart Gray and co-

portfolio manager Mark Davis will also work in the

team. David Shapiro has 29 years’ investment experi-

ence. He is a senior portfolio manager and a former

head of the global equity research team at WTW. Pri-

or to this he was an equity fund manager for 17 years.

Mark has 18 years’ investment experience and has

significant prior research experience in various equity

mandates. Stuart Gray has 13 years’ investment ex-

perience. Stuart has been a member of the global


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k equity research team for 12 years and has headed

the emerging markets research team.

All of the individuals on the investment committee for

Alliance Trust are also involved on the Investment

Committee running the WTW Global Equity Focus

Fund. Between them the investment committee have

58 years’ service under their belts at WTW and we

are reassured by their deep roots at the business and

experience of working together, which mean an effec-

tive portfolio management team for Alliance Trust

should be in place from day one. Supporting this com-

mittee WTW has a 115-strong research team around

the world, including 50 who are focused on equity

research and 21 who look at long-only global man-

dates. Together, they run $87bn for 120 institutional

clients with multi-manager structures.

The research team undertakes nearly 1,000 meetings

with potential fund management partners in the equity

space every year and then, having created a shortlist,

scores a sub-set of these fund managers on a 1-3

scale, based on numerous meetings with each man-

ager as it approaches a conclusion. WTW will only

use those which pass its operational due diligence

tests and receive the highest rating ‘1’ – of which

there are around 40 in the world running global equity

mandates at any given time. All of the managers who

will run the underlying portfolios for Alliance Trust are

in this grouping and WTW has a ‘wait list’ of 3-4 alter-

native managers for each slot.

WTW have provided a brief run-down of the sub-

portfolio managers, which we reproduce here:

BLACK CREEK INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

(BLACK CREEK)

Toronto, Canada (www.bcim.ca)

Bill Kanko is founder and president of Black Creek,

with 35 years’ experience in the industry. Prior to

founding Black Creek in 2004, Bill was the lead man-

ager for the AIM Trimark Fund and Trimark Select

Growth Fund, which had outstanding performance

during his leadership from 1999 to 2004.

Bill is a long-term investor, looking for companies that

are growing, are leaders in their markets and gaining

market share. These companies tend to benefit from

huge barriers to entry and sustainable competitive

advantages. In Morningstar’s Canadian database, the

Black Creek Global Leaders Fund ranks in the top 2%

of funds in the global equity category over a five-year

period and the top 3% over a ten-year period.

FIRST PACIFIC ADVISORS, LLC (FPA)

Los Angeles, USA (www.fpafunds.com)

Pierre Py and Greg Herr, who have an average 20

years’ experience in the industry, have worked to-

gether at FPA since 2011. Pierre, managing director,

previously worked at Harris Associates, Salomon

Brothers, and Goldman Sachs.

Pierre and Greg typically employ a long-term value

investment approach, investing in companies that

they believe have sustainable business models, ex-

hibit financial strength, are run by operationally strong

managers and whose stocks trade at a significant

discount to the FPA team's estimate of intrinsic value.

For Alliance Trust the team will look to balance this

discount with the businesses’ ability to produce an

attractive and sustainable dividend yield. A number of

FPA's funds have been recognised for their perfor-

mance by organisations including Morningstar and

Lipper.

GQG PARTNERS, LLC (GQG)

Fort Lauderdale, USA (www.gqgpartners.com)

Rajiv Jain is the chairman and chief investment officer

of GQG and serves as the sole portfolio manager for

each of the firm’s strategies. With 20 years of emerg-

ing markets experience, Rajiv is among the longest

tenured investors in global and emerging markets

equities. He launched GQG in June 2016, having pre-

viously worked at Vontobel Asset Management for 22


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k years; as co-CEO (from July 2014) and chief invest-

ment officer and head of equities (from February

2002). He was named Morningstar International Fund

Manager of the Year in 2012.

Rajiv looks for high-quality and sustainable business-

es through a fundamental investment process utilising

both traditional and non-traditional sources of infor-

mation. deally, these quality businesses have endur-

ing underlying strengths, which manifest in a variety

of economic environments. The result has been port-

folios designed to provide capital protection in down

markets and attractive returns to long-term investors

over a full market cycle. GQG will manage a global

portfolio for the Trust with particular focus on emerg-

ing market companies.

JUPITER ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

(JUPITER)

London, UK (www.jupiteram.com)

Ben Whitmore, who has 20 years’ experience in asset

management, joined Jupiter in 2006 from Schroders.

Ben will be supported by Dermot Murphy, who has

worked at Jupiter since 2014.

Ben is well known as a long-standing practitioner of

contrarian value investing, investing in companies he

considers to be out-of-favour and under-valued. This

approach has proved successful with the Jupiter UK

Special Situations Fund being top quartile in its sector

over 1, 3, 5, and 10 years.

LYRICAL ASSET MANAGEMENT(LYRICAL)

New York, USA (www.lyricalam.com)

Andrew Wellington serves as the firm’s chief invest-

ment officer and managing partner, and has been

involved with active portfolio management for over

twenty years, with the last eight at Lyrical. He previ-

ously worked at Neuberger Berman where he be-

came the sole portfolio manager for the institutional

US mid-cap value product, more than tripling AUM.

Andrew will be supported by Caroline Ritter.

Value matters most to Lyrical and the team also main-

tains a strict discipline of investing in quality compa-

nies that they believe are relatively easy to analyse.

They believe the combination of value, quality, and

straightforward business model creates resiliency in

the portfolio and the greatest likelihood of long-term

absolute performance and outperformance. In April

2015 Lyrical received the Long Biased Equity Fund –

Long Term Performance award at the annual 2015

Investors Choice Awards.

RIVER AND MERCANTILE ASSET MANAGEMENT

(RIVER & MERCANTILE)

London, UK (www.riverandmercantile.com)

Hugh Sergeant is the chief investment officer of equi-

ties at River and Mercantile and was one of the

founding partners in 2006. He has over 30 years’ ex-

perience and was previously head of UK Equities at

Societe Generale Asset Management and prior to that

at UBS/Phillips & Drew and Gartmore.

The team invest in ‘recovery equities’, through an in-

vestment philosophy called PVT (Potential, Valuation

& Timing) and a process that helps them identify val-

ue at different stages of a company’s lifecycle and to

give signals from a timing perspective as to when that

value might be unlocked.

Hugh’s performance against his peer group has been

strong and his UK and ‘World Recovery’ portfolios are

both ranked in the top decile of returns within their IA

universe since inception.

SUSTAINABLE GROWTH ADVISERS (SGA)

Stamford, USA (www.sgadvisers.com)

George Fraise, Gordon Marchand and Rob

Rohn founded SGA in 2003 and average over 30

years’ investment experience each, having also

worked together before SGA. While the team shares

a common approach to evaluating businesses and

structuring portfolios, the personality attributes of the

three portfolio managers are complementary in im-


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k portant ways.

SGA focuses on building concentrated portfolios of

unique, high quality global growth businesses that

possess strong pricing power, offer recurring revenue

generation and benefit from attractive, long runways

of growth. SGA’s global growth equity portfolio had

achieved a top decile in the Morningstar World Stock

Category since inception, while their Global Mutual

Fund was featured by Morningstar as one of five

‘Under-the-Radar’ and ‘Up-and-Coming Funds’ on 15

November 2016.

VERITAS ASSET MANAGEMENT (VERITAS)

London, UK (www.veritas-asset.com)

Andrew Headley has over 20 years’ investment expe-

rience and is supported by co-portfolio manager

Charles Richardson. They have worked together for

almost 20 years including the last 13 years at Veritas,

since founding the business in 2003.

Veritas focuses on active equity management, utilis-

ing its proprietary ‘Real Return’ approach since incep-

tion of the firm. Veritas employs an absolute mind-set

when valuing companies and dispenses with any ref-

erence to indices when constructing the portfolio. Ver-

itas describe the firm's overall approach as investing

in a concentrated portfolio of good quality companies

at the right price. The Veritas Global Focus Fund car-

ries a Morningstar five-star gold rating.

Discount

As the graph shows, for a long time Alliance Trust has

traded at a relatively wide discount. However, Alliance

Trust’s discount narrowed significantly on the an-

nouncement of the change in strategy, and is now

comparable to Witan (5.5% discount).

A number of analysts have questioned the lack of a

tender offer which would allow activist investor Elliot

(which now owns 19% of the trust) a route out of the

trust. Given the trust’s current discount (around 5%)

one wonders if a tender offer is necessary. Elliot first

started buying shares in Alliance Trust in 2010, when

the discount was at more than 20%, and up until last

year the trust stood on a discount as high as 10%. A

special deal for Elliot that puts other investors at a

disadvantage would be unlikely to receive a warm

welcome from other shareholders. It would seem to

us that the board anticipate letting Elliot exit bit by bit

through the market and buybacks.

Source: Morningstar

Charges

Being amongst the larger savings vehicles for retail

investors in the UK, it is fair to expect that Alliance

Trust should also be amongst the cheapest. Histori-

cally this has been the case, with an OCF ranging

between 0.38% and 0.8% over the past ten years.

The board have announced that they will be targeting

total annual costs of 0.6% going forward at current

size, including the cost of executive functions such as

company secretarial and investor relations. This com-

pares favourably with Witan which had an OCF (ex-

performance fees) of 0.72% last year (or 0.99% in-

cluding performance fees). It also compares well with

the AIC Global investment trust peer group which has

a weighted average OCF of 0.68% (Source: Morn-

ingstar).

It is perhaps also worth bearing in mind that against

the backdrop of a proposed increase in costs the per-

formance target has been doubled.


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Important information

Alliance Trust plc is a client of Investment Trust Intelligence. Research produced by Investment Trust Intelligence

covering Alliance Trust plc should be considered a marketing communication, and is not independent research.

This report has been approved under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by Kepler Partners

LLP for communication to retail clients and private persons as defined by the Financial Services Authority. This is a

marketing document, and should be considered non-independent research as defined in COBS 12.3.2R. It has not

been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research.

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tions in or options on the securities detailed in this report, and may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securi-

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dicative only. The information in this report is believed to be correct, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be

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