alliance trust plc global economic outlook
DESCRIPTION
Alliance Trust PLC Global Economic Outlook. Dr. Shona Dobbie Chief Economist 1 May 2014. US – fiscal position. US federal government budget. US federal debt vs GDP. Outlays. Nominal GDP. $ trillion. $ trillion. Debt outstanding. Receipts. Source: Macrobond. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Alliance Trust PLCGlobal Economic Outlook
Dr. Shona DobbieChief Economist
1 May 2014
US – fiscal position
Source: Macrobond
US federal government budget US federal debt vs GDP
Outlays
Receipts
Nominal GDP
Debt outstanding
$ tr
illio
n
$ tr
illio
n
US – profits vs employee compensation
Source: Macrobond
Employeecompensation (LHS)
Corporateprofits (RHS)
US – quantitative easing
Source: Macrobond
Federal reserve assets
$ tr
illio
n
Emerging markets – currency moves vs US$
Source: Macrobond
Turkey
RussiaBrazil
Inde
x
Rebased end June 2013 = 100
Emerging markets – currency moves vs US$
Source: Macrobond
Turkey
Russia
Inde
x
Rebased end June 2013 = 100
Brazil
Ukraine
China – shadow banking
Source: Macrobond
Trust and Entrusted Loans
Equity Financing
Loans in Foreign Currencies
Loans in Local Currency
Corporate Bonds Net Financing
Bank’s Acceptance Bills
Yua
n tr
illio
n
China – economic structure and growth
Source: Macrobond
Breakdown of GDP World bank urban population rates
Jap
an
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Ger
man
y
Ch
ina
Fixed Investment
Household consumption
47.5
42.5
37.5
32.5
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Per
cent
Per
cent
Japan – ‘Abenomics’
Source: Macrobond
Monetary base Yen and stock market
Yen/Dollar(RHS)
TOPIX (LHS)
Inde
x Yen
Yen
, tril
lion
Europe – unit labour costs
Source: Macrobond
Jan 2000 = 100 End 2008 = 100
Ireland
Spain
Italy
Germany
Spain
Ireland
Italy
Germany
Europe – inflation rates
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Per
cen
t
Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Spain
Germany
France
Italy
Source: Macrobond
UK – labour market recovery
Source: Macrobond
UK unemployment rate UK employment
Self employed(RHS)
Total (LHS)
UK – house price growth
Source: Macrobond
UK – Halifax house price index Nationwide house prices
YoY growth
MoM growth
London
Scotland
US – food prices
Source: Macrobond
Food price inflation Monthly food price moves
Oranges
Eggs
Beef steaks Butter
Citrus fruits
Pork chops
Eggs
Butter
Important information
• Alliance Trust PLC is a self-managed investment company with investment trust status. It is one of the largest generalist UK investment trusts by market value on the London Stock Exchange.
• Alliance Trust Investments Limited and Alliance Trust Savings Limited are subsidiaries of Alliance Trust PLC.
• The Economic Research Centre is part of Alliance Trust and was formed to carry out economic and social analysis to deepen our understanding of economies, markets and socio-economic issues. The views, statements, opinions, information and data contained in this publication are those of the Alliance Trust Economic Research Centre, these views may change as subsequent conditions vary.
• Information used in this publication has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable but it has not been independently verified: no representation has been made to its accuracy or completeness, no reliance should be placed on it and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it.
• This publication should not be used or considered as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and is for information purposes only. This publication is not a financial promotion or recommendation to make any particular investment. Alliance Trust PLC, Alliance Trust investments Limited and Alliance Trust Savings Limited are not authorised to give financial advice.