transitioning toward retirement: observations and outlook · 2019-12-18 · transitioning toward...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Transitioning Toward Retirement:
Observations and Outlook
Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research Chair for the Economic Challenges of
Changing Demographics Retirement and Savings Institute, HEC Montréal
November 2018 with David Boisclair, François Laliberté-Auger,
Maxime Juckenack-Mellinger and Jeiel-Onel Mezil
![Page 2: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Agenda
The changing face of retirement in Quebec
Challenges to monitor: Is delayed retirement desirable? Health and the ability to work
What is the future for retirement?
![Page 3: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The Changing Face of Retirement in Quebec
![Page 4: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Many Paths to Retirement
Key points entailing changes to employment status:
� Start of SPP benefits (often before age 60)
� Eligibility for a QPP retirement pension
� Old Age Security (and GIS)
� Disability and other conditions prior to age 65
![Page 5: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Older Workers
Figure – Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0018-01
Employment Rate Evolution in Quebec (Men and Women)
Years
Empl
oym
ent
Rat
e
![Page 6: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Start of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Age
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 7: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
![Page 8: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 9: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Age
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 10: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 11: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Age
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 12: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 13: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 14: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Age
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 15: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 16: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 17: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 18: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 19: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 20: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 21: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
![Page 22: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
![Page 23: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
More than 60 years old
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Year
![Page 24: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Statistics Canada, LISA
Age
Pro
bab
ility
CPP 1990-1999 QPP 1990-1999
QPP/CPP Benefits
![Page 25: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Statistics Canada, LISA
Age
Pro
bab
ility
CPP 1990-1999 QPP 1990-1999 CPP 2000-2011 QPP 2000-2011
QPP/CPP Benefits
![Page 26: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Figure – Statistics Canada, LISA
Employment Termination
Employment Termination
Pro
bab
ility
CPP 1990-1999 QPP 1990-1999
Age
![Page 27: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Figure – Statistics Canada, LISA
Employment Termination
Employment Termination
Age
Pro
bab
ility
CPP 1990-1999 QPP 1990-1999 CPP 2000-2011 QPP 2000-2011
![Page 28: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Retirement Reasons
Figure – Statistics Canada, General Social Survey
Retirement Reasons for Retirees General Social Survey 1994-2007, Age 68+
Women Men
Health Mandatory Anticipated Technology Unemployment Health Mandatory Anticipated Technology Unemployment
![Page 29: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Retirement Reasons
� Increased number of disability pensions
� Increased prevalence of RRSP withdrawals to fund (early)
retirement
� Observed stable tendency to re-enter the workforce
![Page 30: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Reasons for Re-entering the Workforc Of those not working at the age of 59, only 13% re-enter the workforce (LISA, 1990-2011)
![Page 31: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Reasons for Re-entering the Workforc Of those not working at the age of 59, only 13% re-enter the
workforce (LISA, 1990-2011)
Figure – Statistics Canada, General Social Survey
Reasons to re-enter Workforce General Social Survey 1994-2007
Women Men
Financial Help Health Offers Dislike Financial Help Health Offers Dislike
![Page 32: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Challenges to Monitor
![Page 33: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Agenda
The changing face of retirement in Quebec
Challenges to monitor: Is delayed retirement desirable? Health and the ability to work
What is the future for retirement?
![Page 34: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Gains from Delayed Retirement
{ } −
GAINt (r ) = max PV(BENEFITa, r) PV(BENEFITt , r ) a>t
� Mortality (Statistics Canada projections)
� Federal benefits gains test (SimTax)
� Provincial and federal tax gains (SimTax)
![Page 35: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Without Tax Effect (Optimal Age)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
![Page 36: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
With Tax Effect (Optimal Age)
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
![Page 37: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
Without Tax Effect (Gains in Thousands)
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
![Page 38: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
With Tax Effect (Gains in Thousands)
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
![Page 39: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
Tax Effect
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
![Page 40: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
Without Age Credit
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
![Page 41: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Who Applies at Age 60? Regression of the probability of application at age 60 among those
aged 59 (LISA, 1984-2011)
Figure – Impact on probability of pension application at age 60
Ben
efit
Pro
bab
ility
Eff
ect
at 6
0
![Page 42: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Who Applies at Age 60? Regression of the probability of application at age 60 among those
aged 59 (LISA, 1984-2011)
Figure – Impact on probability of pension application at age 60
Ben
efit
Pro
bab
ility
Eff
ect
at 6
0
![Page 43: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Other Changes to Monitor
� Pension supplement
� Actuarial increase/decrease
� Employment termination no longer a concern
� Increased credit for experienced worker
� Plan improvement
![Page 44: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Agenda
The changing face of retirement in Quebec
Challenges to monitor: Is delayed retirement desirable? Health and the ability to work
What is the future for retirement?
![Page 45: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Longer Lifespans and the Ability to Work
� Longevity is on the rise
� Implications for health (e.g., chronic illness)
� What could the future hold for experienced Quebec
workers?
![Page 46: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Projected Changes in Workers’ Health
Figure – COMPAS projections for ages 60-69
Pre
vale
nce
Prevalence Projection, Age 60-69
Year
Cancer Diabetes Respiratory Cardiac Stroke Cognitive Disability
![Page 47: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Ability to Work
Work determinants (ESCC 2014) applied to COMPAS projections
![Page 48: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Ability to Work
Work determinants (ESCC 2014) applied to COMPAS projections
Figure – COMPAS projections of ability to work
Work Projection, Ages 60-69 (Fixed Education 2018) W
ork
Fra
ctio
n
Year
Work Fraction
![Page 49: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
What is the future for retirement?
![Page 50: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
The Future for Retirement
There are reasons for optimism, though the future is uncertain. Positive signs:
![Page 51: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
The Future for Retirement
There are reasons for optimism, though the future is uncertain. Positive signs:
� Employment rates of older workers should continue to rise
� Tax changes and favourable plans (tax credits, pension
supplement)
� Potentially lighter penalties (GIS/OAS)
![Page 52: Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook · 2019-12-18 · Transitioning Toward Retirement: Observations and Outlook Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050500/5f92dcac11b522734854c3c3/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
The Future for Retirement
There are reasons for optimism, though the future is uncertain. Positive signs:
� Employment rates of older workers should continue to rise
� Tax changes and favourable plans (tax credits, pension
supplement)
� Potentially lighter penalties(GIS/OAS)
Negative signs:
� Chronic illness among older workers
� A changing workplace (adjustment to technological change)
� Low level of financial literacy makes it difficult to access
increased incentives