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ALM MODELING ASSUMPTIONS: GETTING IT RIGHT MATTERS! Monday, June 17, 2013 3:30 PM – 4:45 PM Presented by: www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS Michael Guglielmo Managing Director Darling Consulting Group 260 Merrimac Street Newburyport, MA 01950 P: (978) 463-0400 E: [email protected]

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ALM MODELING ASSUMPTIONS:GETTING IT RIGHT MATTERS!

Monday, June 17, 2013 3:30 PM – 4:45 PM

Presented by:Michael GuglielmoManaging DirectorDarling Consulting Group260 Merrimac StreetNewburyport, MA 01950P: (978) 463-0400E: [email protected]

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS

Presented by:Michael GuglielmoManaging DirectorDarling Consulting Group260 Merrimac StreetNewburyport, MA 01950P: (978) 463-0400E: [email protected]

Session DescriptionWith continued uncertainty and elevated regulatory expectations,model-risk management has taken on a whole new level ofimportance and at the heart of it all is your ALM modelassumptions. Having defensible assumptions and knowing theimpact of being wrong is critical to ensuring your ALCO makingthe most informed decisions. This session will explore practicalmethods to develop, support, document and stress-test the mostcritical key assumptions that go into your ALM model (most notablyloan prepayments, core deposit pricing and deposit decay rates).

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 2 -

With continued uncertainty and elevated regulatory expectations,model-risk management has taken on a whole new level ofimportance and at the heart of it all is your ALM modelassumptions. Having defensible assumptions and knowing theimpact of being wrong is critical to ensuring your ALCO makingthe most informed decisions. This session will explore practicalmethods to develop, support, document and stress-test the mostcritical key assumptions that go into your ALM model (most notablyloan prepayments, core deposit pricing and deposit decay rates).

Key Take Aways

• This is NOT about regulatory compliance– Business challenges demand it!

• Effective assumption development will drive strategicthinking and decision-making

• Sensitivity / stress-testing is critical to process

• Consistency across risk measurement process isexpected

• Management and Board understanding is important– don’t ignore it!

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 3 -

• This is NOT about regulatory compliance– Business challenges demand it!

• Effective assumption development will drive strategicthinking and decision-making

• Sensitivity / stress-testing is critical to process

• Consistency across risk measurement process isexpected

• Management and Board understanding is important– don’t ignore it!

What we’ll discuss

• Importance of good assumptions• Key assumptions

– Descriptions– Impact– Sources– Verification methods

• Role of ALCO and the Board• Q&A

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 4 -

• Importance of good assumptions• Key assumptions

– Descriptions– Impact– Sources– Verification methods

• Role of ALCO and the Board• Q&A

An Effective ALM ModelingProcess Should…

• Assess the financial risk position– Short-term / long-term

• Provide understanding of key drivers and contributorsof potential risk– Events or circumstances– Impact of product / funding pricing and mix– optionality / customer behavior– Impact of key assumptions

• Facilitate strategic decision-making– Simulation of “what-if” strategies– Alternative business paths / stress-testing scenarios

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 5 -

• Assess the financial risk position– Short-term / long-term

• Provide understanding of key drivers and contributorsof potential risk– Events or circumstances– Impact of product / funding pricing and mix– optionality / customer behavior– Impact of key assumptions

• Facilitate strategic decision-making– Simulation of “what-if” strategies– Alternative business paths / stress-testing scenarios

Why Are Assumptions MoreCritical Than Ever?

• Increased balance sheet and businesscomplexity

• More risks

• Greater competitive pressure

• Less margin for error

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 6 -

• Increased balance sheet and businesscomplexity

• More risks

• Greater competitive pressure

• Less margin for error

…But Assumptions Impact More ThanJust Interest Rate Risk Management

• Financial disclosures

• Financial forecasting / budgeting

• Profitability measurement

• Liquidity risk management

• Capital and strategic planning

• Stress-testing

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 7 -

• Financial disclosures

• Financial forecasting / budgeting

• Profitability measurement

• Liquidity risk management

• Capital and strategic planning

• Stress-testing

Consequences of BeingWrong Are More Profound

• Financial– Ineffective ALCO– Lost revenue opportunities– Bad decisions / poor financial performance– Restatements– Credit downgrades

• Regulatory– Criticism– Corrective action (i.e. MOU, C&D)

• Legal– SOX compliance, etc.

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 8 -

• Financial– Ineffective ALCO– Lost revenue opportunities– Bad decisions / poor financial performance– Restatements– Credit downgrades

• Regulatory– Criticism– Corrective action (i.e. MOU, C&D)

• Legal– SOX compliance, etc.

ALM Software Providers AreTrying To Meet The ChangingNeeds…

• Increased capabilities / flexibility

• Integration with third party tools andanalytics

• Success varied

• Blessing and curse

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 9 -

• Increased capabilities / flexibility

• Integration with third party tools andanalytics

• Success varied

• Blessing and curse

…And So Are Some OutsourceSolutions

• Need to know what you have control over– Many providers restrict control/flexibility

• Vendor choice important– Choose carefully / ask questions

• Important: don’t abdicate your responsibility

• …and there are no “industry standards”

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 10 -

• Need to know what you have control over– Many providers restrict control/flexibility

• Vendor choice important– Choose carefully / ask questions

• Important: don’t abdicate your responsibility

• …and there are no “industry standards”

How Do We Know if We HaveThe Right Assumptions?

• Truth is…there is no such thing!!!

• Assumptions by their very nature will bewrong

• Important to a) recognize this and b)develop an ongoing development andreview process

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 11 -

• Truth is…there is no such thing!!!

• Assumptions by their very nature will bewrong

• Important to a) recognize this and b)develop an ongoing development andreview process

Elements of an Effective AssumptionsDevelopment and Support Process

• Ongoing historically-based studies andanalyses– Quantitative AND qualitative

• Establishment of sensitivity / stress-testingframework

• Self validation– Back-testing (actual vs. forecast)

• Independent review

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 12 -

• Ongoing historically-based studies andanalyses– Quantitative AND qualitative

• Establishment of sensitivity / stress-testingframework

• Self validation– Back-testing (actual vs. forecast)

• Independent review

Begin by UnderstandingWhere You Have Been

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 13 -

Establishing Sensitivity /Stress-Testing Framework

• Evaluate alternative assumption scenarios– Deposit pricing and sensitivity betas– Behavioral assumptions

• Deposit retention• Loan and investment prepayments

– Product pricing, growth / mix changes– Alternative rates / yield curves

• Compare results to base-case model– NII simulations– Economic valuations– Liquidity forecasts

• Perform with regularity

• Document and discuss results at ALCO

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 14 -

• Evaluate alternative assumption scenarios– Deposit pricing and sensitivity betas– Behavioral assumptions

• Deposit retention• Loan and investment prepayments

– Product pricing, growth / mix changes– Alternative rates / yield curves

• Compare results to base-case model– NII simulations– Economic valuations– Liquidity forecasts

• Perform with regularity

• Document and discuss results at ALCO

Why Is Stress TestingImportant?

• Identify key strengths and vulnerabilities of balancesheet– Identifies key assumptions that have greatest impact– Quantifies the relative impact of the assumptions

• Emphasizes that results not absolute

• Profound impact on strategy discussions and decisions

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 15 -

• Identify key strengths and vulnerabilities of balancesheet– Identifies key assumptions that have greatest impact– Quantifies the relative impact of the assumptions

• Emphasizes that results not absolute

• Profound impact on strategy discussions and decisions

A better informed ALCO will beA better informed ALCO will bemore confident and proactive!more confident and proactive!

“Self Validation”Back Testing (Defined)

• Means different things to different people– Practitioners– Examiners– Auditors– “Quants”

• Simple working definition:

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 16 -

• Means different things to different people– Practitioners– Examiners– Auditors– “Quants”

• Simple working definition:“Using historical data to“Using historical data tovalidate whether a modelvalidate whether a modelhas predictive validity”has predictive validity”

Back Testing Framework• Starts with historical data tracking

– Prepayment activity– Deposit retention– Offering rates, deposit rates, spreads– Balance sheet growth (changes)

• Use of historical activity to support internal discussions– Comparisons of actual activity versus previous assumptions used– Involvement of Lines of Business (LOB) managers– Formal documentation and approval process is ideal– Some organizations will simulate impact of newly proposed assumptions

• Enhanced back-testing activities– Re-processing previous models using actual inputs– Regression/correlation studies– Behavioral studies– Attribution analysis

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 17 -

• Starts with historical data tracking– Prepayment activity– Deposit retention– Offering rates, deposit rates, spreads– Balance sheet growth (changes)

• Use of historical activity to support internal discussions– Comparisons of actual activity versus previous assumptions used– Involvement of Lines of Business (LOB) managers– Formal documentation and approval process is ideal– Some organizations will simulate impact of newly proposed assumptions

• Enhanced back-testing activities– Re-processing previous models using actual inputs– Regression/correlation studies– Behavioral studies– Attribution analysis

Self Validation(Back testing)• Compare prior projections vs. actual

results (rolling 90-day look backworks well)

• Review major variances by portfolio /product (drill down as necessary)

• Reconcile within x% of NII

• Monitor historical trends in variances

QUARTERLY LOOKBACK SUMMARY

Actual Forecasted VarianceName Income Income $ % Volume Rate Mix

Assets 4,258 4,124 133 3.1% 114 (3) 22Investments 712 813 (101) -14.2% 42 (144) 1 Agency 374 350 24 6.4% 21 2 0 Corporate 26 27 (1) -2.3% (0) (1) 0 Muni 254 398 (143) -56.4% (21) (120) (3) Short Term 17 0 17 99.0% 14 3 (0) Stock 21 18 3 13.4% 0 3 0 Treasury 19 20 (1) -3.9% (0) (1) 0Loans 3,546 3,311 235 6.6% 72 141 21 Residential 1,926 1,739 187 9.7% 32 160 (5) Commercial RE 895 848 47 5.2% 34 (12) 25 C & I 315 320 (5) -1.7% 1 (7) 1 Agriculture 9 8 1 7.9% 0 0 (0) Installments 362 355 7 1.8% (4) 11 0 Other 40 41 (1) -3.1% 9 (11) 1

Liabilities 1,134 1,145 (10) -0.9% 12 (16) (6)Deposits 1,033 1,048 (15) -1.5% 10 (19) (6) Non-Maturity 326 333 (7) -2.1% 17 (18) (6) Time (CD) 706 714 (8) -1.2% (8) (1) 0Borrowings 102 97 5 4.9% 3 2 (0) FHLB 65 62 3 5.1% 0 3 0 Repo 35 32 3 7.7% 3 (0) (0) Short Term 2 3 (1) -67.2% (0) (1) 0

NII 3,123 2,980 143 4.6%

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 18 -

• Compare prior projections vs. actualresults (rolling 90-day look backworks well)

• Review major variances by portfolio /product (drill down as necessary)

• Reconcile within x% of NII

• Monitor historical trends in variances

QUARTERLY LOOKBACK SUMMARY

Actual Forecasted VarianceName Income Income $ % Volume Rate Mix

Assets 4,258 4,124 133 3.1% 114 (3) 22Investments 712 813 (101) -14.2% 42 (144) 1 Agency 374 350 24 6.4% 21 2 0 Corporate 26 27 (1) -2.3% (0) (1) 0 Muni 254 398 (143) -56.4% (21) (120) (3) Short Term 17 0 17 99.0% 14 3 (0) Stock 21 18 3 13.4% 0 3 0 Treasury 19 20 (1) -3.9% (0) (1) 0Loans 3,546 3,311 235 6.6% 72 141 21 Residential 1,926 1,739 187 9.7% 32 160 (5) Commercial RE 895 848 47 5.2% 34 (12) 25 C & I 315 320 (5) -1.7% 1 (7) 1 Agriculture 9 8 1 7.9% 0 0 (0) Installments 362 355 7 1.8% (4) 11 0 Other 40 41 (1) -3.1% 9 (11) 1

Liabilities 1,134 1,145 (10) -0.9% 12 (16) (6)Deposits 1,033 1,048 (15) -1.5% 10 (19) (6) Non-Maturity 326 333 (7) -2.1% 17 (18) (6) Time (CD) 706 714 (8) -1.2% (8) (1) 0Borrowings 102 97 5 4.9% 3 2 (0) FHLB 65 62 3 5.1% 0 3 0 Repo 35 32 3 7.7% 3 (0) (0) Short Term 2 3 (1) -67.2% (0) (1) 0

NII 3,123 2,980 143 4.6%

What Are the KeyAssumptions?

• Behavioral– Prepayment (investment and loans)– Deposit retention/decay and sensitivity

• Financial / Strategic– Investment portfolio structure, level and mix– New loan and deposit composition and pricing– Wholesale funding game plan

• Economic– Rate scenarios– Time horizon

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 19 -

• Behavioral– Prepayment (investment and loans)– Deposit retention/decay and sensitivity

• Financial / Strategic– Investment portfolio structure, level and mix– New loan and deposit composition and pricing– Wholesale funding game plan

• Economic– Rate scenarios– Time horizon

But There Are OtherImportant Assumptions Too…

• Data handling– Aggregation methodology– Problem / missing data management

• Other modeling methodologies– Optionality parameters (call/put logic)– Valuation techniques– Credit/default risk

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 20 -

• Data handling– Aggregation methodology– Problem / missing data management

• Other modeling methodologies– Optionality parameters (call/put logic)– Valuation techniques– Credit/default risk

The Three Most Critical(ALM) Assumptions:

1. Deposit sensitivity / lives

2. Prepayment / refinancing

3. Replacement / new volume

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 21 -

1. Deposit sensitivity / lives

2. Prepayment / refinancing

3. Replacement / new volume

Deposit Assumptions• Description

– Rate changes applied to deposits in various rate scenarios– Decay/retention rates used to project lives of non-maturity

deposits– Estimates of core (non-rate driven) balances

• Impact: moderate to severe– Have greatest impact on results– Most difficult to get “right”

• Assumption sources– Historical deposit studies– Review and discussion with business managers– Discussions and formal approval within ALCO

• Verification methods– Deposit studies– Back-testing– Independent review

Severity Rating

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 22 -

• Description– Rate changes applied to deposits in various rate scenarios– Decay/retention rates used to project lives of non-maturity

deposits– Estimates of core (non-rate driven) balances

• Impact: moderate to severe– Have greatest impact on results– Most difficult to get “right”

• Assumption sources– Historical deposit studies– Review and discussion with business managers– Discussions and formal approval within ALCO

• Verification methods– Deposit studies– Back-testing– Independent review

Impact of Decay and Pricingon Valuation Measures

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

-100 0 100 200 300

Change in Post-Shock Ratio (Basis points)

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

-100 0 100 200 300

Change in Post-Shock Ratio (Basis points)

Results with NoNon-Maturity Deposit Value Impact

Shorter Average Lives

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 23 -

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

-100 0 100 200 300

Change in Post-Shock Ratio (Basis points)

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

-100 0 100 200 300

Change in Post-Shock Ratio (Basis points)

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

-100 0 100 200 300

Change in Post-Shock Ratio (Basis points)

Longer Average Lives

Impact of Pricing Sensitivity andNon-Core Funding Volatility

Before After

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 24 -

Developing Deposit Assumptions• “Core deposit study”

– Internal or externally performed– Many different flavors– Higher cost <> more accurate results– Can provide meaningful information…but– Will not provide answers with any certainty

• Analyzing historical activity can tell you a lot– Balances, rates, # of accounts, open/closed activity– Provides perspective – can serve as reference point

• Should relate quantitative results with qualitative experience– No single right answer - range of possible outcomes– Too many influencing factors– Data can be misleading or skewed by events, product or technology

changes, etc.

• Periodically apply “optimistic” and “pessimistic” alternatives

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 25 -

• “Core deposit study”– Internal or externally performed– Many different flavors– Higher cost <> more accurate results– Can provide meaningful information…but– Will not provide answers with any certainty

• Analyzing historical activity can tell you a lot– Balances, rates, # of accounts, open/closed activity– Provides perspective – can serve as reference point

• Should relate quantitative results with qualitative experience– No single right answer - range of possible outcomes– Too many influencing factors– Data can be misleading or skewed by events, product or technology

changes, etc.

• Periodically apply “optimistic” and “pessimistic” alternatives

Prepayment Assumptions• Description

– Curtailment or early payoffs applied to loans and investments

• Impact: low to moderate– Can impact level of projected earnings/value– Risk profile can be altered as well

• Assumption sources– Historical prepayment tracking/studies– Vendor-supplied models (residential)– Secondary market sources (residential, some installment)– Review and discussion with business managers

• Verification Methods– Back-testing– Activity tracking– Third party sources– Independent review

Severity Rating

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 26 -

• Description– Curtailment or early payoffs applied to loans and investments

• Impact: low to moderate– Can impact level of projected earnings/value– Risk profile can be altered as well

• Assumption sources– Historical prepayment tracking/studies– Vendor-supplied models (residential)– Secondary market sources (residential, some installment)– Review and discussion with business managers

• Verification Methods– Back-testing– Activity tracking– Third party sources– Independent review

Impact of PrepaymentAssumptions

Alternative Prepayments (-200bp)

7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 62005 2006 2007

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

$70,000Monthly NET INTEREST INCOME ($000)

- 200BP Alt Prepay BASE - 200 BP$0

Year 1: $446,557 $613,041 $480,888

Year 2: $291,379 $562,148 $331,414

Year 1 Year 2

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 27 -

Alternative Prepayments (-200bp)

7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 62005 2006 2007

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

$70,000Monthly NET INTEREST INCOME ($000)

- 200BP Alt Prepay BASE - 200 BP$0

Year 1: $446,557 $613,041 $480,888

Year 2: $291,379 $562,148 $331,414

Year 1 Year 2

Replacement Assumptions• Description

– Rates and characteristics applied to cash flow replacement andgrowth

• Impact: low to moderate (occasionally severe)– Greatest impact is generally on level of projected earnings– Risk profile can be altered as well– Severity can depend upon type of scenarios (shocks vs. ramps)

• Assumption sources– Historical activity tracking– Review and discussion with business

managers

• Verification Method– Activity tracking– Back-testing (actual vs. forecast)– Independent review

Severity Rating

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 28 -

• Description– Rates and characteristics applied to cash flow replacement and

growth

• Impact: low to moderate (occasionally severe)– Greatest impact is generally on level of projected earnings– Risk profile can be altered as well– Severity can depend upon type of scenarios (shocks vs. ramps)

• Assumption sources– Historical activity tracking– Review and discussion with business

managers

• Verification Method– Activity tracking– Back-testing (actual vs. forecast)– Independent review

Impact of ReplacementAssumptions

Before After

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 29 -

Data Handling Issues• Description

– Assumptions made relative to handling data

• Impact: low to moderate

• Examples– Aggregation of dissimilar products

– Inaccurate contractual cashflow and repricing– Ineffective option handling (i.e. calls, puts, caps, floors)– Misapplied prepayment parameters

– Problem data resolution– Bad or missing data is “scrubbed” into the data prior to import

• Verification Methods– Independent review

Severity Rating

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 30 -

• Description– Assumptions made relative to handling data

• Impact: low to moderate

• Examples– Aggregation of dissimilar products

– Inaccurate contractual cashflow and repricing– Ineffective option handling (i.e. calls, puts, caps, floors)– Misapplied prepayment parameters

– Problem data resolution– Bad or missing data is “scrubbed” into the data prior to import

• Verification Methods– Independent review

The Role of ALCO andThe Board• ALCO/Senior Management

– Responsible for the development and support ofassumptions

– Create appropriate level of processes and controls– Discuss, modify, and approve assumptions regularly

• Board– Delegates oversight to ALCO

BUT– Needs to understand key assumptions and trends!

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 31 -

• ALCO/Senior Management– Responsible for the development and support of

assumptions– Create appropriate level of processes and controls– Discuss, modify, and approve assumptions regularly

• Board– Delegates oversight to ALCO

BUT– Needs to understand key assumptions and trends!

ALCO Best Practices forAssumption Management

• Document and explain key modeling assumptionsin ALCO package

• Discuss at each meeting• Solicit input from business lines• Periodically run alternatives

– Sensitivity / stress tests– Inform and educate

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 32 -

• Document and explain key modeling assumptionsin ALCO package

• Discuss at each meeting• Solicit input from business lines• Periodically run alternatives

– Sensitivity / stress tests– Inform and educate

Start simple!!!

So What Does ThisAll Mean?

• Institutions need to pay closer attention to theassumptions used in the ALM process

• Develop better means to substantiate, verify,test, and communicate

• Increase ALCO and Board awareness andinvolvement

• Make sensitivity and stress-testing afunctional priority

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 33 -

• Institutions need to pay closer attention to theassumptions used in the ALM process

• Develop better means to substantiate, verify,test, and communicate

• Increase ALCO and Board awareness andinvolvement

• Make sensitivity and stress-testing afunctional priority

Key Take Aways

• This is NOT about regulatory compliance– Business challenges demand it!

• Effective assumption development will drive strategicthinking and decision-making

• Sensitivity / stress-testing is critical to process

• Consistency across risk measurement process isexpected

• Management and Board understanding is important– don’t ignore it!

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 34 -

• This is NOT about regulatory compliance– Business challenges demand it!

• Effective assumption development will drive strategicthinking and decision-making

• Sensitivity / stress-testing is critical to process

• Consistency across risk measurement process isexpected

• Management and Board understanding is important– don’t ignore it!

ALM MODELING ASSUMPTIONS:GETTING IT RIGHT MATTERS!

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 35 -

With over 25 years of experience in asset/liabilitymanagement, Michael provides technical and strategicrisk management consulting to a diverse group offinancial institutions in the U.S. and abroad. Michael isalso a frequent author and top-rated speaker on avariety of balance sheet and financial risk managementtopics.

Prior to joining DCG, Michael managed the ALM andstrategic planning process for a regional bank in thenortheast.

He is a graduate of Fairfield University with a degree ineconomics.

Michael R. [email protected](978) 463-0400

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 36 -

With over 25 years of experience in asset/liabilitymanagement, Michael provides technical and strategicrisk management consulting to a diverse group offinancial institutions in the U.S. and abroad. Michael isalso a frequent author and top-rated speaker on avariety of balance sheet and financial risk managementtopics.

Prior to joining DCG, Michael managed the ALM andstrategic planning process for a regional bank in thenortheast.

He is a graduate of Fairfield University with a degree ineconomics.

About DCG• Independent balance sheet/risk management consultancy

• Serving the industry for three decades

• Substantive and highly dedicated staff (80+ employees)

• More than 500 clients served annually

• Highly regarded speakers, authors, and educators:– Numerous professional and industry associations– Resource for examiners

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 37 -

• Independent balance sheet/risk management consultancy

• Serving the industry for three decades

• Substantive and highly dedicated staff (80+ employees)

• More than 500 clients served annually

• Highly regarded speakers, authors, and educators:– Numerous professional and industry associations– Resource for examiners

• ALM model outsourcing and balance sheet advisory services

• Individual project-based services:– Model validation & process review– Liquidity review (including contingency planning)– Core deposit & loan prepayment studies– ALCO performance reviews– Capital planning / stress-testing

• Education– Workshops for management and board of directors– ALM model workshops– Annual balance sheet management conference– Examiner training

DCG’s Services

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 38 -

• ALM model outsourcing and balance sheet advisory services

• Individual project-based services:– Model validation & process review– Liquidity review (including contingency planning)– Core deposit & loan prepayment studies– ALCO performance reviews– Capital planning / stress-testing

• Education– Workshops for management and board of directors– ALM model workshops– Annual balance sheet management conference– Examiner training

• White Papers– ALM & ALCO– Liquidity Risk Management– ALM Modeling & Audits– ALCO Performance

• E-Mail Newsletters (Complimentary)– ALM Insights– DCG Bulletin

• DCG Website – DarlingConsulting.com

DCG Resources Available

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 39 -

• White Papers– ALM & ALCO– Liquidity Risk Management– ALM Modeling & Audits– ALCO Performance

• E-Mail Newsletters (Complimentary)– ALM Insights– DCG Bulletin

• DCG Website – DarlingConsulting.com

• DCG provides balance sheet management solutions for banks, thrifts andcredit unions across the United States. Our 80+ person professional teamoffers a unique and comprehensive approach to balance sheet managementthat incorporates specialized tools, educational programs, and unbiasedadvice for institutions between $20 million and $200 billion in assets. Workingin partnership with senior management and boards of directors, we producesignificant, quantifiable results for hundreds of financial institutions throughoutthe country.

• DCG’s menu of products and services include:– Timely and informative educational programs for executives and

professional associations– Customized and pro-active advisory and consulting services in the areas

of balance sheet management, investments and financial and strategicplanning

– Cost-effective outsourcing of the risk management and modeling process– Comprehensive model and assumption validation services in support of

regulatory model risk management (OCC 2011-12 / SR 11-7) compliance

About DCG

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 40 -

• DCG provides balance sheet management solutions for banks, thrifts andcredit unions across the United States. Our 80+ person professional teamoffers a unique and comprehensive approach to balance sheet managementthat incorporates specialized tools, educational programs, and unbiasedadvice for institutions between $20 million and $200 billion in assets. Workingin partnership with senior management and boards of directors, we producesignificant, quantifiable results for hundreds of financial institutions throughoutthe country.

• DCG’s menu of products and services include:– Timely and informative educational programs for executives and

professional associations– Customized and pro-active advisory and consulting services in the areas

of balance sheet management, investments and financial and strategicplanning

– Cost-effective outsourcing of the risk management and modeling process– Comprehensive model and assumption validation services in support of

regulatory model risk management (OCC 2011-12 / SR 11-7) compliance

• Find out more about balance sheet management by visiting our websiteDarlingConsulting.com

– DCG WEB SITE Articles on bank profit and risk management Gateway to additional banking industry information/research Register for the annual balance sheet management conference Upcoming educational events around the country

– ALM Insights & DCG Bulletin – DCG’s complimentary e-newsletters thataddress a variety of topical balance sheet and risk management issues

– To register: Visit us: DarlingConsulting.com E-mail us: [email protected] Call us: 978-463-0400

About DCG (continued)

www.fmsinc.org | 800-ASK-4FMS- 41 -

• Find out more about balance sheet management by visiting our websiteDarlingConsulting.com

– DCG WEB SITE Articles on bank profit and risk management Gateway to additional banking industry information/research Register for the annual balance sheet management conference Upcoming educational events around the country

– ALM Insights & DCG Bulletin – DCG’s complimentary e-newsletters thataddress a variety of topical balance sheet and risk management issues

– To register: Visit us: DarlingConsulting.com E-mail us: [email protected] Call us: 978-463-0400