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4.

ALTERNATIVE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PATHWAYS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

OUTPUT E4

3.

Project: South Africa’s Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways

Client: Department of Environmental Affairs

5.

Authors: Yvonne Lewis, Brett Cohen, Alexandra Logan, Brent Cloete

The Green House

Ubunye House

70 Rosmead Avenue

Kenilworth

7708

t: + 27 (0) 21 671 2161

f: + 27 (0) 86 638 3692

e: [email protected]

Project: 17035

9 March 2018

Disclaimer

The professional advice of The Green House contained in this report is prepared for the exclusive use of the

addressee and for the purposes specified in the report. The report is supplied in good faith and reflects the

knowledge, expertise and experience of the consultants involved. The report must not be published, quoted or

disseminated to any other party without appropriately referencing The Green House as authors of the work. The

Green House accepts no responsibility for any loss occasioned by any person acting or refraining from action as

a result of reliance on the report, other than the addressee.

In conducting the analysis in the report The Green House has endeavoured to use the best information availabl e

at the date of publication, including information supplied by the client. The Green House’s approach is to devel op

analyses from first principles, on the basis of logic and available knowledge. Unless stated otherwise, The Green

House does not warrant the accuracy of any forecast or prediction in the report. Although The Green House

exercises reasonable care when making forecasts and predictions, factors such as future market behaviour are

uncertain and cannot be forecast or predicted reliably.

ALTERNATIVE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PATHWAYS FOR SOUTH AFRICA | II

ABBREVIATIONS

AFOLU Agriculture, forestry and other land use

BNETR Benchmark national emissions trajectory range

CCGT Combine cycle gas turbine

CCS Carbon, capture and storage

CCU Carbon, capture and utilisation

CNG Compressed natural gas

CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalents

CTL Coal-to-liquid

EV Electric vehicle

FCEV Fuel cell electric vehicle

GDP Gross domestic product

GHG Greenhouse gas

GTL Gas-to-liquid

HEV Hybrid electric vehicle

ICE Internal combustion engines

ICT Information and communications technology

IRP Integrated resource plan

Mt Megatonne

PHEV Plug-in electric vehicle

PPD Peak, plateau and decline

PV Photo voltaic

RD&I Research, development and innovation

TWG Technical working group

WAM With additional measures

WEM With existing measures

WOM Without measures

ALTERNATIVE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PATHWAYS FOR SOUTH AFRICA | III

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The GHG Pathways Project aims to conduct an analysis of projected national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

pathways for South Africa to 2050. To achieve this overall aim, two distinct sets of deliverables are identified:

1. A set of projections assuming a largely unchanged economic structure:

a. A ‘Without Measures’ (WOM) projection of emissions from 2000 to 2050 assuming that

no climate change mitigation actions have taken place since 2000.

b. A ‘With Existing Measures’ (WEM) projection, which incorporates the impacts of climate

change mitigation policies and measures implemented to 2015.

c. A ‘With Additional Measures’ (WAM) projection, which assumes that existing, pipeline

and potential future climate change mitigation policies and measures are implemented .

2. A set of alternative GHG emission pathways, where some of the characteristics of the current South

African economy and emissions landscape may change. These alternative emission pathways include

the mitigation measures considered in the WAM projection, but also include further low carbon activities

that relate to additional technological, behavioural and societal changes. The three pathways developed

are:

a. Pathway 1: Clean coal in a manufacturing and local beneficiation economy

b. Pathway 2: Rapid decarbonisation in a manufacturing and local beneficiation

economy

c. Pathway 3: Reduced demand in a services economy

This report presents the final alternative GHG emission pathways developed under the second component of the

study. It is noted that the pathways developed here describe a range of possible futures and serve to demonstrate

the capabilities of the user-friendly tools developed to support this work.

Approach to developing the pathways

Previous phases of this project have involved developing a user-friendly GHG emissions projection model (the

Pathways Model), which draws on the latest data and literature regarding South Africa’s GHG emissions profile,

existing policies and strategies related to mitigation, as well as measures available to mitigate emissions. A

technical working group (TWG) assisted in model development by ensuring that the best available data was used

and that the assumptions regarding mitigation potential were appropriate for the South African context. The

Pathways Model was developed in the Analytica modelling framework and has been purpose-built. The basis of the

Pathways Model is the Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA), but with some significant revisions and improvements.

These include:

Coverage of emissions: The Pathways model covers all sectors of the economy and emission sources

as it is aligned with the National GHG inventory.

Up-to-date baseline data for 2000 to 2015 and detailed projections to 2050.

Review of mitigation measures.

Sub-sector specific growth rates

Consistent economic growth projections across projections and pathways.

Internal consistency of the projections and pathways.

A simple electricity sector module, which applies a least cost optimisation to determine the electricity

generation capacity to meet the unique electricity demand for each Projection and Pathway.

ALTERNATIVE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PATHWAYS FOR SOUTH AFRICA | IV

To develop the pathways using the model, the following approach was taken:

1. Identify a comprehensive list of low carbon activities across sectors.

2. Unpack the linkages between the identified activities and other sectors and activities.

3. Identify different combinations of mutually compatible activities that can be considered for pathways.

4. Quantify the GHG emission reductions from these combinations.

5. Develop three example pathways to demonstrate the extent to which combinations of additional

activities contribute to moving South Africa towards a lower carbon future.

Overview of the pathways

The tables below summarise the three pathways developed, in terms of their key features as well as the low carbon

activities included under each pathway.

TABLE 1: OVERVIEW OF THE KEY FEATURES OF THE PATHWAYS

PATHWAY 1

CLEAN COAL

PATHWAY 2

RAPID DECARB

PATHWAY 3

REDUCED DEMAND

Drivers for mitigation Achieved through introduction of clean coal technologies, namely carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and/or

carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) from 2030

A rapid transition to a low er carbon energy supply

Increased gas availability

Reduced demand through economic restructuring and

behavioural change

Economic structure Signif icant grow th in

beneficiation and dow nstream

manufacturing

Signif icant grow th in beneficiation and dow nstream

manufacturing

A strongly services-based economy and an expanded

agricultural sector supported

by rural development activities

Electricity Increased demand due to manufacturing grow th

No early decommissioning

New build is utility-scale

renew ables

Energy storage technologies not introduced

Increased demand due to manufacturing grow th, accelerated EV uptake

Early decommissioning

Decentralised and utility scale renew ables w ith energy

storage technologies

Reduced demand across most sectors,

Some early decommissioning

Decentralised renew ables with energy storage technologies

Transport Focus on modal shift and improved fuel eff iciency

Accelerated EV uptake, biofuels and gas

Focus on reduced demand for passenger kilometres,

moderate EV uptake

CTL Continued operation w ith CCS Early closure Early closure

Buildings and Cities High-tech energy eff icient

buildings Some high-tech interventions

Slow er urbanisation, eff icient

buildings

Agriculture and land

Some eff iciencies No additional mitigation

Uptake of a plant-rich diet

Transformation of the agriculture sector

ALTERNATIVE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PATHWAYS FOR SOUTH AFRICA | V

TABLE 2: LIST OF LOW CARBON ACTIVITIES INCLUDED IN EACH OF THE PATHWAYS

ENERGY LANSCAPE 1 2 3 TRANSPORT 1 2 3

☐ Decentralised generation w ith storage

☐ Increased shift to gas

☐ Increased utility-scale renewables with

storage

☐ Early decommissioning - some pow er

stations

☐ Early decommissioning - all pow er stations

☐ Decommissioning of CTL

☐ Biomass energy

☐ Energy from Waste

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

☐ Rapid modal shift

☐ Electric vehicles – moderate penetration

☐ Electric vehicles – high penetration w ith

CNG

☐ Work from home

☐ Telepresence

☐ Car sharing

☐ Increased biofuels

☐ Improved fuel eff iciency

☐ Smaller vehicles

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

BUILDINGS AND CITIES ☐ Optimised logistics ✓ ✓

☐ Urban densif ication ✓ ✓ ☐ High speed passenger rail ✓ ✓ ✓

☐ City planning – nodal development ✓ ✓ MATERIALS AND WASTE

☐ Non-motorised transport

☐ Intelligent buildings

☐ Green roofs

☐ Retrofitting

☐ Smart glass

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

☐ Reduced food w aste

☐ Increased recycling

☐ Alternative cement

☐ Alternative building materials

☐ Composting

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

AGRICULTURE AND LAND COMING ATTRACTIONS

☐ Plant-rich diet

☐ Nutrient management

☐ Managed grazing

✓

✓

✓

✓

☐ CCS/CCU – industry

☐ CCS/CCU – pow er generation

☐ Autonomous vehicles

✓

✓

✓

☐ Improve agricultural value chain eff iciencies ✓ ✓ DEMOGRAPHICS

☐ Slow ing urbanisation

☐ Curbing population grow th

✓

✓

✓

✓

Overall results

FIGURE 1: COMPARISON OF THE PATHWAYS TO THE WEM AND WAM PROJECTIONS AND PPD

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Em

iss

ion

s (

MtC

O2e

)

PPD trajectory upper limits PPD trajectory lower limits

WEM WAM

1 - Clean coal 2 - Rapid decarbonisation

3 - Reduced demand

ALTERNATIVE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PATHWAYS FOR SOUTH AFRICA | VI

Figure 2 shows the implications of the pathways on emissions compared to the WEM and WAM projections as well

as the upper and lower trajectory of the peak-plateau-decline trajectory or PPD. The “Clean Coal” pathway deviates

the least from the WAM, with the shape of the trajectory mostly following the WAM and reflecting the impact of CCS

on the overall emissions trajectory from 2030. “Rapid decarbonisation” allows the emissions profile to deviate

sooner from the WAM (from about 2020) largely as a result of early decommissioning of power stations and CTL

and the building of renewables to meet the increased electricity demand from electric vehicles . The “Reduced

Demand” emissions profile reflects initial early decommissioning as well as the transition to less emissions intensive

economy. In this pathway, behavioural activities also played a significant role, particularly the transition to a plant-

rich diet and measures to reduce passenger kilometres.

Under all pathways, the electricity sector is no longer a key contributor to emissions growth showing a steady

decline throughout the period. This is primarily a function of the model, which for new generation capacity

consistently selects renewables over other conventional technologies (and nuclear) due to the relatively lower costs.

The emissions profile of the electricity sector is therefore only a function of the utilisation of existing coal -fired power

stations (including Medupi and Kusile), their rate of retirement and the ability to implement clean coal technologies

(specifically CCS). Where demand is reduced, renewables penetration could be higher, but is constrained by the

excess availability of existing coal-based generation. Further decreases in emissions in this pathway could be

achieved through earlier decommissioning of these power stations. The decline in emissions from the electricity

sector is off-set by growth in other sectors, primarily the industrial and manufacturing sectors for the “Clean coal”

and “Rapid decarbonisation” pathways, but also as a result of increased population growth and increased energy

use from households, buildings and the agricultural sector.

The socio-economic implications of the pathways have been explored qualitatively, with all pathways associated

with socio-economic impacts, which would need to be managed. This is because all the pathways reflect fairly

significant structural changes to the economy over the period. These changes will have to be undertaken in

conjunction with other economic and social policies to support the transition to a lower carbon economy and

ameliorate negative impacts.

Closure

The pathways together with the Pathways model, serve to increase the understanding of low carbon development

in the South African context and the individual and combined contribution of low carbon activities and mitigation

measures in achieving this. Although the socio-economic implications for each of the pathways are highlighted in

the report, further work is required to quantify the socio-economic impact of these (and other) pathways and to align

with work on Developing Models and Pathways for a Low-carbon Economy and Climate-resilient Society under

development by the DPME (National Planning Commission).

ALTERNATIVE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PATHWAYS FOR SOUTH AFRICA | VII

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................................................................................................II

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..........................................................................................................................................................III

Approach to developing the pathways ...............................................................................................................................iii

Overview of the pathways .................................................................................................................................................... iv

Overall results ......................................................................................................................................................................... v

Closure .................................................................................................................................................................................... vi

1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................................................ 1

2 METHODOLOGY............................................................................................................................................................... 2

2.1 Overall approach......................................................................................................................................................... 2

2.2 Approach to developing alternative emission pathways ...................................................................................... 3

3 ALTERNATIVE EMISSION PATHWAYS - NARRATIVES ........................................................................................ 7

3.1 Pathway 1: Clean coal in a manufacturing and local beneficiation economy ................................................... 7

3.2 Pathway 2: Rapid decarbonisation in a manufacturing and local beneficiation economy .............................. 8

3.3 Pathway 3: Reduced demand in a services economy........................................................................................ 10

4 IMPLICATIONS OF THE PATHWAYS ........................................................................................................................ 11

4.1 Overall ........................................................................................................................................................................ 11

4.2 The electricity sector ................................................................................................................................................ 12

4.3 Transport .................................................................................................................................................................... 15

4.4 Implications for other sectors .................................................................................................................................. 15

5 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS .......................................................................................................................... 16

5.1 Pathway 1: Clean coal in a manufacturing and local beneficiation economy ................................................. 17

5.2 Pathway 2: Rapid decarbonisation coupled with a manufacturing and local beneficiation economy ......... 18

5.3 Pathway 3: Reduced demand in a services economy........................................................................................ 19

6 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................................................................... 21

A LOW CARBON ACTIVITIES......................................................................................................................................... 23

B LOW CARBON ACTIVITY CLUSTERS...................................................................................................................... 44

ALTERNATIVE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PATHWAYS FOR SOUTH AFRICA | 1

1 INTRODUCTION

The GHG Pathways Project aims to conduct an analysis of projected national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission

pathways for South Africa to 2050, ranging from those under which no mitigation action is taken, to those in which

mitigation action is taken in an economy with a structure largely similar to that of today, to those under which there

is greater transformation of the economy. To achieve this overall aim, two distinct sets of deliverables are identified:

3. A set of projections assuming a largely unchanged economic structure: This component of the

work assumes that the structure of the economy, and hence the different emissions sources as reflected

in the draft 2012 GHG inventory, remain relatively unchanged. There are few major changes to the

economic structure – apart from contraction of certain sectors that occur or have occurred since 2000 as

a result of natural attrition or are already forecast to happen (e.g. decommissioning of plants). Emissions

into the future are based on assumptions about gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth,

current production technologies and future production and greenhouse gas mitigation technology

evolution, sectoral development plans, specific investment programs, available resources and reserves,

etc. Three projections are developed:

a. A ‘Without Measures’ (WOM) projection of emissions from 2000 to 2050

assuming that no climate change mitigation actions have taken place since 2000.

b. A ‘With Existing Measures’ (WEM) projection, which incorporates the impacts of

climate change mitigation policies and measures implemented to 2015.

c. A ‘With Additional Measures’ (WAM) projection, which assumes that existing,

pipeline and potential future climate change mitigation policies and measures are

implemented.

4. A set of alternative GHG emission pathways: The second component of the s tudy explores a set of

alternative emission pathways, where some of the characteristics of the current South African economy

and emissions landscape may change in the future and the implications for emissions are explored in

greater detail. These alternative emission pathways include the mitigation measures considered in the

WAM projection where these are still relevant, but also include further low carbon activities . Besides

quantifying the alternative emission pathways, any positive and negative implications of the different

pathways (in terms of other environmental or socio-economic impacts) are qualitatively explored.

This report presents the final alternative GHG emission pathways developed under the second component of the

study. It is noted that the pathways developed here describe a range of possible futures and serve to demonstrate

the capabilities of the user-friendly tools developed to support this work. The pathways and tools are useful in

understanding low carbon development in the South African context and the relative contribution of low carbon

activities and mitigation measures in achieving this. This provides a sound basis for decision-making that is needed

to inform policy development on greenhouse gas mitigation. However, further work is required to quantify the socio-

economic impact of these (and other) pathways and to align with work on Developing Models and Pathways for a

Low-carbon Economy and Climate-resilient Society that is under development by the Department of Planning,

Monitoring and Evaluation (National Planning Commission). The Planning Commission work will include the

following:

Visioning a different economic futures for the SA economy and society, and its implications, especially

for poverty and inequality;

Exploring and understanding risks and vulnerabilities (economic, social and environmental);


Drawing on research related to socio-economic indicators (e.g. jobs) and consider how these would

change under different economic futures, so as to better answer questions about socio -economic

development (e.g. looking at development co-benefits e.g. jobs, income redistribution, GDP, health,

gender equity);

Drawing on international examples as a benchmarking exercise; and

Develop South Africa’s 2050 vision based on a sustainable development pathway.

This report begins by describing the overall approach to emissions modelling as well as the approach followed in

developing the pathways in Section 2. The narratives describing the three alternative emission pathways are then

presented (Section 3), followed by the modelling results, which show the implications of the pathways on emissions

(Section 4). Thereafter the socio-economic implications of the pathways are described qualitatively and conclusions

drawn in Sections 5 and 6 respectively.

To provide clarity in reading this document, the following terminology is defined:

PROJECTIONS: WOM, WEM and WAM

PATHWAYS: Alternative emission pathways

PATHWAYS MODEL: The Analytica model that is used for modelling both the projections and

pathways, using different input assumptions

2 METHODOLOGY

2.1 Overall approach

Previous phases of this project have involved developing a user-friendly GHG emission projection model, which

draws on the latest data and literature regard ing South Africa’s GHG emission profile, existing policies and

strategies related to mitigation, as well as measures available to mitigate emissions. These activities included

stakeholder engagement through a technical working group (TWG), who ensured that the best available data was

used and that the assumptions regarding mitigation potential were appropriate for the South African context.

The GHG emission projection model (the Pathways Model) was developed in the Analytica modelling framework,

developed by Lumina Decision Systems (www.lumina.com). Analytica is a powerful modelling platform that is more

visual, transparent and flexible than a spreadsheet and is less susceptible to making simple errors. The model has

been purpose-built with the outputs of the model being GHG emission pathways. The model layout follows the IPCC

emission source categories, with emission projections developed for each category. The level of disaggregation

possible in terms of IPCC emission categories has been informed by data availability and aligns with the level of

disaggregation in the GHG inventory, with the exception of industrial energy use, where a higher level of

disaggregation is possible for some subsectors.

The basis of the Pathways Model is the Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA), but with some significant revisions and

improvements. These include:

The Pathways model covers all sectors of the economy and emission sources as it is aligned with the

National GHG inventory

Up-to-date baseline data for 2000 to 2015 and detailed projections to 2050.

http://www.lumina.com/


Review of mitigation measures included in the MPA to reflect updated thinking and experience

Sub-sector specific growth rates don’t automatically track GDP growth, but rather consider other

determining factors (e.g. step changes in production as new facilities brought online; end -of-life of

existing facilities; depleted resources and/or increased difficulty in extracting remaining resources;

Infrastructure constraints (e.g. railway line capacity to ports); Demand from other sectors).

Ensuring internal consistency of the projections and pathways. For example,

o Decreased electricity consumption due to energy efficiency measures decreases electricity

demand – impacts on future capacity installed

o Decreased coal usage required for electricity generation – impacts on coal mining output

o Decreased liquid fuel demand from transport – impacts new refinery capacity required

Balancing economic growth in the Services and/or Manufacturing sector ensures that overall economic

growth projections are consistent across the Projections and Pathways.

Electricity sector module, which applies a least cost optimisation to determine the electricity generation

capacity to meet the unique electricity demand for each Projection and Pathway. This was necessary so

that the model could show the impact of mitigation measures that increase electricity use (e.g. electric

vehicles, CCS) and decrease electricity use (e.g. energy efficiency, decentralised PV) on overall

emissions. The electricity sector module is simple, with the main shortcoming being the lack of time-of-

use data, which has partly been addressed by including assumptions to account for peaking, load profiles

etc. The resulting build plans have been sent to Eskom to test whether or not they meet system adequacy

requirements. Adjustments made based on feedback may im pact on the build plans projected, but

shouldn’t affect the emission profile from the electricity sector, which is the primary output of the model.

2.2 Approach to developing alternative emission pathways

The following approach was proposed for developing the alternative emission pathways:

1. Identify a comprehensive list of activities across sectors that could contribute to a lower carbon future.

These are not limited to technologies, but also include changes to the economic structure and

behavioural/societal changes.

2. Unpack the linkages between the identified activities and other sectors and activities.

3. Identify different combinations of mutually compatible activities that can be considered for pathways.

4. Quantify the GHG emission reductions from these combinations and provide an analysis of which

combinations make the greatest contribution to achieving a lower carbon future.

5. Develop three example pathways to demonstrate the extent to which combinations of additional

activities contribute to moving South Africa towards a lower carbon future.

The list of low carbon activities (Step 1) was presented in a report circulated to the TWG. The report also began to

unpack some of the linkages between these activities and other sectors and activities (Step 2) and provided a f irst

pass at the assumptions used in their modelling (Step 4). At the TWG meeting held on the 1 st of December 2017,

there was a slight deviation from the proposed methodology as it was considered to be more effective and

conceptually achievable to develop pathways and then reflect on the compatible activities, as opposed to starting

with combinations of activities and building up a pathway. The TWG were first asked to identify any further low

carbon activities that they thought were missing and/or comment on the existing list of activities. Thereafter they

were asked to develop three alternative emission pathways using as many of the low carbon activities that “fitted”

with their initial starting point/idea for the pathway. The starting points for the pathways developed by each group

are summarised below:


TABLE 3: SUMMARY OF STARTING POINTS FOR PATHWAYS DEVELOPED DURING TWG MEETING ON

1ST DECEMBER 2017

Pathway 1 Pathway 2 Pathway 3

Group 1 Decarbonisation of energy supply (high renew ables) together with

energy demand management and CCS

Addressing production and consumption, requires behaviour

change

Addressing poverty and inequality

Group 2 Strong manufacturing w ith local beneficiation

Sustainable land management Services growth

Group 3 Economic transformation to a

low er carbon economy. Manufacturing as starting point

Transport focus, with rail as the

anchor

Energy landscape / Renew able

energy focus. Anchored in low er carbon economy

The pathways developed during the TWG meeting were analysed by the project steering committee and project

team to highlight common themes and groups of activities towards developing the three pathways presented in

Section 3. The most significant departure point from the pathways developed during the TWG meeting that deserves

pointing out, is that while the groups expressed a desire to frame a pathway with job creati on and addressing

poverty and inequality at its core, the Pathways model is not structured for developing such a pathway as it doesn’t

quantify socio-economic impacts associated with low carbon activities and mitigation measures. This approach

could therefore not be undertaken. Rather, the pathways presented here have mitigation (achieved in various ways)

at their core. This is not to say that consideration of socio-economic concerns is not critical in future planning, but

rather that they cannot be the driver for pathway development using the currently available set of tools.

The three pathways that emerged attempted to explore the widest range of possible futures, with each having a

different focus in terms of how further mitigation is achieved, namely: through clean coal technologies, through rapid

decarbonisation of the electricity supply and reduced demand. Each of these pathways was then paired with a

future alternative assumed economic structure1, noting that for the WOM, WEM and WAM projections the economic

structure remains largely unchanged over the time period from 2015 to 2050. The alternative economic structures

considered were an economy characterised by increased mining and beneficiation of mined minerals together with

increased manufacturing, and an economy dominated by the services sector. In the latter, a services economy was

considered consistent with mitigation achieved primarily through reduced demand, whereas the economy

associated with increased beneficiation and manufacturing was paired with both the “Clean Coal” pathway as well

as the “Rapid Decarbonisation” pathway.

The next step was to add low carbon activities to each pathway that contributed to a consistent and coherent

narrative for each alternative emission pathway. The final set o f low carbon activities included in developing the

pathways is shown in Table 4, with the contribution to further emission reductions relative to the WAM projection

shown alongside each activity. Activities are grouped according to thematic area , which are each assigned a

different colour as per the table. These low carbon activities are described in more detail in Appendix A, where they

are ranked from highest to lowest in terms of their contribution to emission reductions. Additional technical

information is available in Output C12. It is noted that the emission reductions for each of the individual activities

shown in Table 4 and Appendix A are not additive, as some of the activities impact on the emission reduction

potential of others, resulting in the combined effect potentially being lower than the sum of the individual impacts.

1 It should be noted that the ov erall economic growth rate under each pathway is kept constant, with only the relative contribution from key sectors changed

to reflect a changing economic structure. 2 Output C1 is in the process of being updated, but is av ailable on request from the project team.


TABLE 4: LOW CARBON ACTIVITIES INCLUDED IN THE PATHWAYS AND THEIR RELATIVE IMPACT ON

EMISSION REDUCTIONS

ENERGY LANSCAPE Impact* TRANSPORT Impact*




storage


stations



☐ Biomass energy


++

+++

n.d

++

++++

++++

+

++

☐ Rapid modal shift



CNG

☐ Work from home

☐ Telepresence

☐ Car sharing




++

++

+++

++

+

+

+++

++

+

BUILDINGS AND CITIES ☐ Optimised logistics +

☐ Urban densif ication ++ ☐ High speed passenger rail +

☐ City planning – nodal development ++ MATERIALS AND WASTE


☐ Intelligent buildings

☐ Green roofs

☐ Retrofitting

☐ Smart glass

+

+

+

+

+


☐ Increased recycling



☐ Composting

++

++

++

+

++


☐ Plant-rich diet


☐ Managed grazing

+++

+

+++




+++

+++

++

☐ Improve agricultural value chain eff iciencies + DEMOGRAPHICS


☐ Curbing population grow th

++

+++

* ++++ = cumulative emission reduction > 500 MtCO2e betw een 2015 and 2050

+++ = cumulative emission reduction > 100 MtCO2e betw een 2015 and 2050 but less than 500 MtCO2e

++ = cumulative emission reduction > 10 MtCO2e betw een 2015 and 2050, but less than 100 MtCO2e

+ = cumulative emission reduction > 1 MtCO2e betw een 2015 and 2050, but less than 10 MtCO2e

n.d. = not determined (due to the least cost optimisation approach, it is not possible to “force in” additional renew ables to estimate the stand-alone impact of this activity).

The low carbon activities presented in Table 4 have subsequently been grouped into combinations of activities of

“clusters” (Step 3) and their contribution quantified. These clusters of activities are presented in Table 5, along with

a brief description and rationale, and quantified in Appendix B.


TABLE 5: CLUSTERS OF LOW CARBON ACTIVITIES

Cluster Description and rationale Impact*

SUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLE +++

Reduced food w aste

Plant-rich diet

Composting

Increased recycling

This cluster considers behavioural changes related to food and

managing w aste, predominantly at a household level. This cluster is included in the Demand Reduction pathw ay. Increased recycling is included in the other pathw ays as it is consistent w ith increased eff iciency in a manufacturing economy.

AGRICULTURAL EFFICIENCIES +++

Nutrient management

Managed grazing

Improve agricultural value chain eff iciencies

This cluster considers additional eff iciencies that can be actioned in the agricultural sector over and above the mitigation measures

considered in the WAM. The “reduced demand” pathw ay is associated w ith a stimulated agriculture sector and so this cluster is included under that pathw ay. How ever, the activities are not necessarily exclusive to this pathw ay and some activities have also

been included under “clean coal” as they relate to eff iciency.

BUILDINGS cluster ++

Intelligent buildings

Green roofs

Retrofitting

Smart glass

Alternative cement

Alternative building materials

These activities relate to the operation of commercial buildings as w ell as alternative materials for use in construction. Given the strong services based sector in the “reduced demand” pathw ay (and the

associated increase in commercial building space required. This cluster is selected under that pathw ay. However, the building efficiency activities are also included under “clean coal” as CCS is only applied later in the period and improving eff iciency across all

sectors is important in this pathw ay.

CITIES cluster ++

Densif ication

City planning – nodal development

Non-motorised transport

The w alkability of a city (and thus ability to use non-motorised forms of transport) is linked to the design of the city and, in particular densif ication. Although urbanisation is decreased under the “reduced demand” pathw ay, nodal development and behavioural

changes mean this cluster is consistent with this pathw ay. While densif ication and city planning are undertaken in the other pathw ays, the focus on technological interventions over behaviour

change suggest that non-motorised transport is not taken up to the same extent as in the “reduced demand” pathw ay.

TRANSPORT - Technological +++

Electric vehicles – high penetration

Autonomous vehicles

Improved fuel eff iciency

This cluster considers technological transport-related activities.

Electric vehicles appear in all the pathw ays to varying degrees and improved fuel eff iciency is consistent with those pathways where the transition to EVs is not so rapid. Autonomous vehicles, because they require a w illingness to adopt them, are only considered in the

“reduced demand” pathw ay, which is also associated with reduced ow nership of vehicles.

TRANSPORT - Behavioural ++

Work from home

Telepresence

Car sharing

This cluster is associated w ith behaviour change and is therefore

implemented in the “reduced demand” pathw ay.

+

TRANSPORT – Public and Freight ++

Optimised logistics

Rapid modal shift – passenger

Rapid modal shift - freight

High speed passenger rail

These activities all have to do w ith either public transport or freight. The rapid modal shift is considered across pathways as is the

inclusion of high-speed passenger rail (but for different reasons). Optimised logistics is considered necessary under “reduced demand” due to the requirement to use more locally sourced goods and services.

* ++++ = cumulative emission reduction > 500 MtCO2e betw een 2015 and 2050

+++ = cumulative emission reduction > 100 MtCO2e betw een 2015 and 2050 but less than 500 MtCO2e




3 ALTERNATIVE EMISSION PATHWAYS - NARRATIVES

The three pathways developed are as follows:

Pathway 1: Clean coal in a manufacturing and local beneficiation economy

Pathway 2: Rapid decarbonisation in a manufacturing and local beneficiation economy

Pathway 3: Reduced demand in a services economy

The pathways are described briefly below and the implications of these pathways explored further in the sections

that follow.

3.1 Pathway 1: Clean coal in a manufacturing and local

beneficiation economy

The table below highlights the low carbon activities selected for this pa thway.

TABLE 6: LOW CARBON ACTIVITIES INCLUDED IN THE CLEAN COAL PATHWAY





storage


stations



☐ Biomass energy

Energy from Waste

++

+++

n.d

++

++++

++++

+

++

Rapid modal shift



CNG

☐ Work from home

☐ Telepresence

Car sharing




++

++

+++

++

+

+

+++

++

+

BUILDINGS AND CITIES ☐ Optimised logistics +

Urban densif ication ++ High speed passenger rail +

City planning – nodal development ++ MATERIALS AND WASTE



Green roofs

Retrofitting

Smart glass

+

+

+

+

+


Increased recycling



☐ Composting

++

++

++

+

++


☐ Plant-rich diet


Managed grazing

+++

+

+++

CCS/CCU – industry

CCS/CCU – pow er generation


+++

+++

++

Improve agricultural value chain eff iciencies + DEMOGRAPHICS


Curbing population grow th

++

+++

* ++++ = cumulative emission reduction > 1,000 MtCO2e betw een 2015 and 2050

+++ = cumulative emission reduction > 100 MtCO2e betw een 2015 and 2050 but less than 1,000 MtCO2e





In this pathway, South Africa continues to make use of its abundant coal res ources while still seeking to reduce its

greenhouse gas emissions through introduction of clean coal technologies. This includes the large-scale

introduction of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and/or carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) from 2030.

Specifically, CCS retrofitted onto Medupi and Kusile power stations and CTL facilities as well as CCS/CCU at large

industrial installations such as refineries, iron and steel facilities, cement and lime. CCS/CCU is the primary driver

of emission reductions in this pathway.

The structure of the economy retains some of its current form, although there is significant growth in beneficiation

and downstream manufacturing. Some of this growth occurs in new green industries, including renewable energy

and electric vehicle manufacture. Electricity demand is increased compared to WAM due to electricity inputs

required for CCS as well as the growth in the manufacturing sector. All coal -fired power stations remain until the

end of their planned service life (50 years) and all new build is in the form of utility-scale renewables including wind,

solar PV (these are the least cost options) and energy from waste in combination with gas CCGT introduced to

offset the intermittency of renewables. Energy storage technologies are not introduced in this pathway.

In the transport sector, there is a small selection of low carbon activities that reduce demand and/or emissions,

including rapid modal shift, car sharing, high-speed passenger rail, urban densification and nodal developments,

and improved fuel efficiency of ICE vehicles . However, due to the ability of CTL and refineries to continue to operate

with reduced emissions, there is not a strong driver for increasing the uptake of electric vehicles.

Other low carbon activities that are included under this pathway are curbing population growth, increasing recycling,

managed grazing, intelligent buildings, green roofs, smart glass and building retrofits as well as improved

efficiencies along the agricultural value chain.

3.2 Pathway 2: Rapid decarbonisation in a manufacturing and local


Table 7 highlights the low carbon activities selected for this pathway.


TABLE 7: LOW CARBON ACTIVITIES INCLUDED IN THE RAPID DECARBONISATION PATHWAY


Decentralised generation w ith storage

Increased shift to gas

Increased utility-scale renew ables with

storage


stations

Early decommissioning - all pow er stations

Decommissioning of CTL

☐ Biomass energy


++

+++

n.d

++

++++

++++

+

++

Rapid modal shift


Electric vehicles – high penetration w ith CNG

☐ Work from home

☐ Telepresence

☐ Car sharing

Increased biofuels



++

++

+++

++

+

+

+++

++

+

BUILDINGS AND CITIES Optimised logistics +

Urban densif ication ++ High speed passenger rail +

☐ City planning – nodal development ++ MATERIALS AND WASTE



☐ Green roofs

☐ Retrofitting

☐ Smart glass

+

+

+

+

+


Increased recycling



☐ Composting

++

++

++

+

++


☐ Plant-rich diet


☐ Managed grazing

+++

+

+++




+++

+++

++

☐ Improve agricultural value chain eff iciencies + DEMOGRAPHICS



++

+++






A rapid transition to a lower carbon energy supply is undertaken to support an economy built on local beneficiation

and manufacturing. As with the “Clean Coal” pathway, the economic structure focuses on realising value from

natural mineral resources, with increased beneficiation contributing to growth in downstream manufacturing. The

coal mining sector will shrink, however, due to the early closure of power stations and the CTL facility.

The electricity sector is at the core of this transition: existing coal-fired power stations are decommissioned early.

From 2020, power stations are decommissioned four years earlier than seen in the WAM. Electricity is provided by

grid-connected solar PV and wind, supported by the adoption of utility scale electricity storage and gas. The uptake

of off-grid solar PV in both the residential and commercial sectors also grows as storage options become more

affordable and widely available. Although increased uptake of wave power, offshore wind and solar CSP could also

play a role in the transition, these aren’t seen to become cost competitive with solar PV and wind before 2050.

The rapid decarbonisation of the energy sector extends into the transport sector, through the accelerated uptake of

electric, hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles and those running on biofuels and gas. The resulting reduction in

demand for liquid fuels, coupled with the decarbonisation drive, leads to the early closure of CTL liquid fuel

production facilities and some associated downstream activities by 2040, together with the coal fired power s tations

at these facilities. Converting CTL to GTL under this pathway may be a possibility depending on the availability of

gas. This would avoid the knock-on implications in the chemicals sector as a result of CTL closure. The public


transport system is improved which results in an increased modal shift away from private vehicles, and the freight

rail system is improved to drive the modal shift of freight from road to rail. Other activities in the transport sector

include a high-speed rail line between Johannesburg and Durban and optimised road freight logistics. Transport

energy demand is further reduced through urban densification and increased adoption of non-motorised transport.

Energy and emissions associated with buildings are reduced through the construction of intelligent buildings. An

increase in materials recycling is seen. In addition, population growth is slowed somewhat compared to the WAM.

3.3 Pathway 3: Reduced demand in a services economy

The low carbon activities selected for this pathway are shown in Table 8.

TABLE 8: LOW CARBON ACTIVITIES INCLUDED IN THE REDUCED DEMAND PATHWAY


Decentralised generation w ith storage


Increased utility-scale renew ables with

storage

Early decommissioning - some pow er stations


Decommissioning of CTL

Biomass energy

Energy from Waste

++

+++

n.d

++

++++

++++

+

++

Rapid modal shift

Electric vehicles – moderate penetration


CNG

Work from home

Telepresence

Car sharing

Increased biofuels


Smaller vehicles

++

++

+++

++

+

+

+++

++

+

BUILDINGS AND CITIES Optimised logistics +

☐ Urban densif ication ++ High speed passenger rail +

City planning – nodal development ++ MATERIALS AND WASTE



Green roofs

Retrofitting

Smart glass

+

+

+

+

+

Reduced food w aste

Increased recycling

Alternative cement


Composting

++

++

++

+

++


Plant-rich diet

Nutrient management

Managed grazing

+++

+

+++



Autonomous vehicles

+++

+++

++

Improve agricultural value chain eff iciencies + DEMOGRAPHICS

Slow ing urbanisation


++

+++





n.d. = not determined (due to the least cost optimisation approach, it is not possible to “force in” additional renew ables to

estimate the stand-alone impact of this activity).

Reduced demand is driven primarily by a restructuring of the economy away from heavy industry and manufacturing

towards a strongly services-based economy and an expanded agricultural sector supported by rural development

activities. Behavioural change is another key driver in this pathway. With significantly reduced electricity demand,

little new power station capacity is required and there is some early decommissioning of existing older power

stations as Medupi and Kusile come online. There is an increased uptake of decentralised generation in the

commercial, residential and agricultural sectors.


The services economy and improvements in communications infrastructure allows for a reduction in transport

passenger kilometres through employee travel demand practices including working from home, increased adoption

of telepresence (i.e. conducting business meetings remotely thus resulting in reduced airline travel), adoption of

non-motorised transport, car sharing and improved driving practices. Rural development has the effect of slowing

the rate of urbanisation, further reducing passenger kilometres. A rapid modal shift in both the passenger and freight

sectors is also seen. There is a shift towards purchasing of smaller vehicles, although given the lower demand for

transport services; growth in electric and hybrid vehicle adoption is slower than in the “Rapid Decarbonisation”

pathway. As with the other pathways, a high-speed rail line is built between Johannesburg and Durban.

The requirement for freight transport is reduced through a shift in the economy towards the services sector (as

discussed below), as well as through optimisation of the freight system through actions including optimised logistics

(e.g. inland ports and reverse freight flows) and introduction of intelligent transport systems. Finally for the transport

sector, reduced demand for liquid fuels, coupled with a higher penetration of biofuels into the supply mix, result in

existing CTL facilities (and their downstream and power generating infrastructure) being closed early.

While urbanisation is slower, with people living closer to where they work, buildings are transformed to contribute

to the reduction in the energy intensity of the economy. An accelerated retrofit of existing buildings to improve their

energy efficiency is undertaken, with new buildings being built as intelligent buildings using smart glass and covered

by green roofs. Alternative building products are also used.

The agriculture sector is transformed as people transition to a plant-rich diet (thus requiring lower production of

meat). Within the sector improved nutrient management and managed grazing is undertaken, and an increased

uptake of energy-related mitigation actions in the agriculture and forestry sectors is seen. Related low carbon

activities include a reduction in food waste, increased composting and increased recycling. Population growth is

curbed as for the other pathways.

4 IMPLICATIONS OF THE PATHWAYS

4.1 Overall

Figure 2 shows the implications of the pathways on emissions compared to the WEM and WAM projections as well

as the upper and lower trajectory of the Benchmark National Emissions Trajectory Range – also referred to as the

peak-plateau-decline trajectory or PPD. Overall annual emissions are reduced to approximately 360, 340 and 220

Mt CO2e for the “Clean coal”, “Rapid decarbonisation” and “Reduced demand” pathways in 2050, compared to 720

and 390 Mt CO2e in the WEM and WAM projection respectively. The resulting emissions per capita, emissions

intensity and overall emissions are summarised in Table 9.


FIGURE 2: COMPARISON OF THE PATHWAYS TO THE WEM AND WAM PROJECTIONS AND BNETR

TABLE 9: OVERALL ESTIMATED IMPLICATIONS OF THE PATHWAYS ON EMISSIONS

WEM WAM PATHWAY 1

CLEAN COAL

PATHWAY 2

RAPID DECARB

PATHWAY 3

REDUCED DEMAND

Emissions per capita in 2050*

(tCO2e per person) 11 5.9 6.1 5.7 3.7

Emissions intensity in 2050** (tCO2e/Million 2012 R GDP)

91 49 46 43 28

Total cumulative emissions 2015 – 2050 (GtCO2e)

21 15 15 14 13

* Emissions per capita in 2015 is calculated as 9.2 tCO2e per person

** Emissions intensity in 2015 is calculated as 180 tCO2e / Million 2012 R GDP

4.2 The electricity sector

At present, Eskom is subjecting the modelled electricity build plans for the pathways to a system adequacy3

assessment, which may influence the results.

3The sy stem adequacy assessment is a study that models the entire electric power system on an hourly basis throughout the simulation horizon and measures

w hether the electric pow er system has enough generation capacity to meet demand as required by various adequacy criteria. The electric power system is deemed to be adequate if it meets all the generation adequacy metrics at the same time and for all the y ears under consideration. If the electric power system can be dispatched such that the resultant balance betw een electric supply and demand leads to specific thresholds being met, then the sy stem is deemed adequate, and therefore can meet demand within acceptable levels of reliability. The adequacy metrics can be found in the Mid Term System Adequacy

Outlook Methodology and Approach available on Eskom’s website: http://w ww.eskom.co.za/Whatweredoing/SupplyStatus/Documents/MTSAO_Oct2017Report.pdf

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Em

iss

ion

s (

MtC

O2e

)

PPD trajectory upper limits PPD trajectory lower limits

WEM WAM

1 - Clean coal 2 - Rapid decarbonisation

3 - Reduced demand

http://www.eskom.co.za/Whatweredoing/SupplyStatus/Documents/MTSAO_Oct2017Report.pdf


The way the electricity sector develops under each pathway is determined by a combination of input assumptions,

including those that affect demand (e.g. assumed economic structure , uptake of electric vehicles, decentralised

generation) and those that impact supply (e.g. early decommissioning of power stations, increased use of gas,

availability of storage etc.). The optimisation module, costs and optimisation criteria remain consistent between

pathways, with the exception of the gas complement required. This differs across the pathways and is dependent

on the amount of peaking capacity required.

Electricity demand under the pathways and relative to the WEM and WAM projections is shown in Figure 3. Of the

pathways, “Rapid Decarbonisation” has the greatest electricity demand, which is attributed to the increased demand

from manufacturing and the accelerated uptake of electric vehicles. “Clean coal” also has a higher electricity

demand than the WAM, again due to increased demand from manufacturing with electric vehicle uptake the same

as the WAM projection. The “Reduced demand” pathway has the lowes t electricity demand, which can be attributed

to the relatively lower electricity intensity of the services economy vs. a manufacturing economy. This pathway also

has a higher uptake of electric vehicles relative to the WAM, but lower than the “Rapid Decarbonisation” pathway.

In the “Rapid Decarbonisation” and “Reduced Demand” pathways, some of this electricity demand is met by

decentralised generation supported by storage. This off-sets demand for grid electricity.

FIGURE 3: OVERALL ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR WAM AND THE PATHWAYS

The implications for the electricity sector are unpacked in Table 10.

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

De

ma

nd

(G

Wh

)

WEM WAM 1 - Clean coal 2 - Rapid decarbonisation 3 - Reduced demand


TABLE 10: ELECTRICITY SECTOR IMPLICATIONS OF THE PATHWAYS

WEM WAM PATHWAY 1

CLEAN COAL

PATHWAY 2

RAPID DECARB

PATHWAY 3

REDUCED DEMAND

Energy Storage No No No Yes Yes

Decentralised generation No No No Yes Yes

% Total renew ables (grid + decentralised) generation in 2050

28% 68% 68% 86% 76%

Grid Mix (MW basis) in 2050

Renew ables

Gas

Coal

Diesel

Nuclear

39%

13%

42%

7%

0%

78%

10%

6%

6%

0%

82%

6%

6%

6%

0%

73%

15%

7%

6%

0%

65%

19%

11%

6%

0%

Annual captured emissions from electricity generation in 2050 (MtCO2e)

0 0 16 0 0

Grid electricity emissions factor in 2050* (tCO2e/MWh)

0.55 0.11 0.06 0.12 0.19

* The grid emissions factor in 2015 is 0.92 tCO2e/MWh

The implications of the pathways on electricity emissions are shown in Figure 4. Here, the “Reduced demand”

pathway is lower than the WAM to 2030. This is attributed to the early decommissioning of some power stations

under this pathway due to reduced demand. The electricity emissions associated with the “Rapid Decarbonisation”

pathway demonstrate the impact of early decommissioning of all older coal-fired power stations. The “Clean coal”

pathway electricity emissions track WAM until CCS is introduced on Medupi and Kusile post 2030.

FIGURE 4: EMISSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH GRID-BASED ELECTRCITY SUPPLY

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Em

issi

on

s (M

tCO

2e

)

1 A 1 a i Electricity production WEM

1 A 1 a i Electricity production WAM

1 A 1 a i Electricity production 1 - Clean coal

1 A 1 a i Electricity production 2 - Rapid decarbonisation

1 A 1 a i Electricity production 3 - Reduced demand


4.3 Transport

Emissions from transport are mostly impacted by the extent of uptake of electric vehicles in the different pathways

and to a lesser extent by activities that reduce travel demand through behavioural, planning and other technological

interventions including use of non-motorised transport, car sharing, densification, biofuels etc. It is reiterated that

the WAM already contains an uptake of electric vehicles, which is unchanged in the “Clean Coal” pathway, but

further accelerated to different degrees in the “Rapid Decarbonisation” and “Reduced Demand” pathways. The

“Rapid Decarbonisation” pathway also includes an increased uptake of CNG vehicles. The relative impact of each

of the transport related activities are detailed in Appendix A, with three transport-related clusters of activities

presented in Appendix B.

The key implications for the transport sector are shown in Table 11.

TABLE 11: IMPLICATIONS OF THE PATHWAYS ON THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

WEM WAM PATHWAY 1

CLEAN COAL

PATHWAY 2

RAPID DECARB

PATHWAY 3

REDUCED DEMAND

Biofuels (low / high penetration) n/a Low Low High High

% reduction in fuel emissions per vehicle km in 2050 relative to 2015.

0% 59% 60% 78% 61%

Share of private vehicle km in

2050

ICE

HEV

PHEV

EV

CNG

FCEV

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

15%

25%

19%

37%

1%

3%

15%

25%

19%

37%

1%

3%

1%

14%

20%

58%

1%

6%

2%

26%

28%

40%

1%

3%

Passenger.km per person per year in 2050

6.500 6,400 6,000 5,200 4,200

4.4 Implications for other sectors

The implications of the pathways on other sectors are summarised through the indicators listed in Table 12. The

following observations are made:

INDUSTRY: The fuel emissions from industry as well as industrial electricity demand are both highest in

the “Clean Coal” pathway, followed by the “Rapid Decarbonisation” pathway. This reflects the transition

to an economy focused on the energy intensive mining, beneficiation and manufacturing sectors in both

of these pathways. Fuel emissions are lower in the “Rapid Decarbonisation” pathway due to a shift to

lower carbon fuels (namely, gas), with grid electricity demand offset by decentralised generation.

Industrial fuel emissions and electricity demand are lowest in the “Reduced Demand” pathway, due to

the strong focus on services together with reduced demand.

HOUSEHOLDS: Fuel emissions from households are highest under the “Rapid Decarbonisation”

pathway, which is attributed to the shift to gas, which replaces conventional solid fuels including biomass.

Electricity demand is lower in all pathways relative to the WAM, which is attributed to the lower population

growth considered in the pathways as well as the various low carbon activities included under the

different pathways.


COMMERCE: In the commercial sector, the “Reduced Demand” pathway has the highest fuel emissions,

which reflects the growth in this sector. Of the pathways, commercial electricity use is highest under the

“Rapid Decarbonisation” pathway, which reflects the lack of low carbon activities implemented in this

sector. However, 10% of this demand is met by decentralised PV in this pathway.

AFOLU emissions reflect, the degree to which low carbon activities are included under each pathway.

Although the “Reduced Demand” pathway has the highest growth rate for the agricultural sector, the

emissions remain the lowest, which is attributed to the shift to a plant-rich diet.

WASTE: Waste emissions for the “Reduced Demand” pathway are lowest, which is due to the high rate

of waste diversion in this pathway as well as the slower rate of urbanisation (rates of waste generation

are higher in urban populations than in rural populations).

TABLE 12: IMPLICATIONS OF THE PATHWAYS ON REMAINING SECTORS

WEM WAM PATHWAY 1

CLEAN COAL

PATHWAY 2

RAPID DECARB

PATHWAY 3

REDUCED DEMAND

Fuel emissions from industry in

2050 (MtCO2e) 150 120 160 120 42

Electricity demand from industry in 2050 (TWh)

190 160 220 190 70

Captured emissions from industry in 2050 (MtCO2e)

0 0 22 0 0

Fuel emissions from households in 2050 (MtCO2e)

2.9 3.9 3.6 5.0 3.3

Electricity demand from households in 2050 (TWh)

55 49 44 39 38

% of total household electricity

demand met by decentralised PV (%)

0% 0% 0% 16% 14%

Fuel emissions from commercial sector in 2050 (MtCO2e)

12 10 9 9 11

Electricity demand from commercial sector in 2050 (TWh)

97 66 45 55 56

% of total commercial electricity demand met by decentralised PV

(%)

0% 0% 0% 10% 11%

AFOLU emissions in 2050 (MtCO2e)

45 42 34 42 28

Waste emissions in 2050 (MtCO2e)

78 48 36 39 27

Waste diverted from landfill (%) 0% 15% 37% 32% 41%

Economic split in 2050 (% contribution to GDP)

Mining and Quarrying

Manufacturing

Services

Agriculture and Forestry

Other industries

2.6%

11.7%

77.5%

2.1%

6.0%

2.4%

11.7%

77.8%

2.1%

6.0%

2.5%

23.4%

66.1%

2.1%

6.0%

2.4%

23.5%

66.1%

2.1%

6.0%

2.1%

5.9%

83.0%

4.0%

5.0%

5 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

The socio-economic implications of the pathways have been explored qualitatively in the sections that follow. All

the pathways are associated with socio-economic impacts as they all reflect different, but fairly significant structural


changes to the economy over the period. These changes would need to be managed and will have to be undertaken

in conjunction with other economic and social policies to support the transition to a lower carbon economy and

ameliorate negative impacts.

5.1 Pathway 1: Clean coal in a manufacturing and local


Overview: Economic growth is built around mineral beneficiation, heavy industry and manufacturing. This energy-

intensive development path is enabled by a large existing fleet of coal -fired power stations supplemented by

additional renewable energy and complemented by gas baseload and peaking. Mitigation is achieved through the

implementation of clean coal technologies, namely CCS/CCU.

Exports & competitive advantage: Export growth is primarily driven by minerals (coal, gold, platinum, etc.), the

production of intermediate inputs (e.g. iron and steel), and increased manufactured output as a result of the

increased beneficiation drive (including products from green industries like electric vehicles and components used

in grid-scale renewables). Over time, however, it may be that demand for the two main export streams starts to

diverge based on whether the global economy decarbonises or not. Agricultural exports may also increase due to

more competitive local value chains increasing cost competitiveness. It should be noted, however, that overall this

pathway has the highest emissions of the three pathways (which could increase the cost of exports if carbon border

tax adjustments are implemented widely internationally and a relatively high local carbon price is put in plac e to

address this), and also has the highest electricity generation costs of the three pathways due to the retrofitting of

CCS on Medupi and Kusile. CCS may also increase the production costs of refineries and industries like iron and

steel and cement, depending on the low carbon production techniques that become standard in these industries or

whether CCU is possible. Keeping production costs competitive is a significant challenge under this Pathway, and

increased international support to reduce the cost of mitigation on the economy may be required for it to materialise.

Employment: The focus on capital intensive heavy industry; manufacturing and mining indicates that strong

employment growth under this pathway is unlikely, particularly when it is considered that increased mechanisation

will be required to continue the extraction of many of South Africa’s mineral resources. Green industries may support

job creation via employment-intensive activities like building retrofits and recycling (particularly in log istics).

Agricultural employment is likely to increase due to increased demand for agricultural products (linked to more

competitive value chains) and sustainable practices like managed grazing. Urban densification and nodal

development may stimulate demand in the services industry – but overall the size of the relatively employment

intensive services sector will shrink under this pathway. The retention of the relatively employment-intensive coal

mining industry, however, prevents transition costs and/or job losses, as, probably, does the retention of CTL

beyond 2040 (where employment in the downstream chemicals industry may be more important than CTL itself). A

substantial amount of new renewable capacity is added under this Pathway, which in combination wi th construction

of gas infrastructure could have a significant positive impact on employment. The new capacity, however, is largely

grid-scale – as opposed to the more labour-intensive embedded generation that is preferred under “Rapid

Decarbonisation”.

Income inequality & poverty: The focus on capital intensive and relatively technologically advanced

manufacturing indicates that employment growth will probably remain strongest for semi and highly skilled

individuals. This is likely to increase inequality and have limited impact on poverty reduction, unless significant

public sector revenues are generated via carbon pricing for redistribution. Increased employment in the agriculture


sector would address inequality and poverty, but its impact is expected to be relatively small as the contribution of

the agriculture and forestry sector to the economy shrinks slightly under this pathway.

Externalities: Emphasis on mining and heavy industry, and coal mining and transportation demand linked to

electricity generation and CTL, coupled with more extensive use of liquid fuels (albeit with more efficient vehicles),

means that air pollution, water usage and solid waste production, and negative externalities linked to road transport

will continue to be an issue.

5.2 Pathway 2: Rapid decarbonisation coupled with a

manufacturing and local beneficiation economy

Overview: The “Rapid Decarbonisation” pathway is an energy-intensive development pathway, and similarly to the

“Clean Coal” pathway, economic growth is built around mineral beneficiation, heavy industry and manufacturing.

With an accelerated uptake of electric vehicles, grid electricity demand is the highest under this pathway. However,

there is substantial investment in renewable energy earlier in the period compared to the “Clean Coal” pathway,

and coal-fired power stations are retired earlier. In this pathway, storage at utility scale and decentralised storage

is implemented to partially deal with renewable intermittency. To offset this increased energy demand, rapid

decarbonisation of the electricity grid is undertaken and there is also a substantial shift to lower carbon fuel use in

industry and manufacturing. This pathway has the highest demand for gas, which stimulates investment in supply

(assumed to be imported gas) and distribution infrastructure, which makes large volumes of reasonably priced gas

available to industrial users.

Exports & competitive advantage: Export growth is primarily driven by minerals (coal, gold, platinum, etc.), the

production of intermediate inputs (e.g. iron and steel), and increased manufactured output as a result of

beneficiation drive as in the “Clean Coal” pathway. Manufactured output from green industries is again expected to

form part of increased manufactured exports , and there is a particular opportunity for growth in electric vehicle

manufacture, renewables (both grid-scale and decentralised) and in storage solutions. Production of smaller scale,

off-grid renewable solutions coupled with storage is also likely to be well -suited for sale into the African market.

Stronger local demand for pure electric vehicles could support local manufacturer competitiveness, and a shift from

road to rail coupled with optimised freight logistics (for freight remaining on road) will improve competitiveness by

reducing logistics costs. Over time, however, it may be that demand for the two main export streams, being primary

resources and higher value manufactured output (which includes output from green industries), start to diverge

based on whether the global economy decarbonises or not, However, the lower carbon intensity of the economy

means that this is less of an issue than under the “Clean Coal” pathway. Agricultural exports are expected to fall

under this pathway due to local demand for biofuels. There is also likely to be increased imports of chemicals or

chemical inputs as a result of the closure of CTL in 2040 and reduction in refining capacity linked to lower liquid fuel

demand. Although quite similar initially, the emissions intensity of the Sou th African economy is more than 15%

less under the “Rapid Decarbonisation” pathway compared to the “Clean Coal” pathway by the end of the period.

This means international and local mitigation policy is likely to place less of a dampener on the competitiven ess of

local producers. The biggest advantage to local manufacturing under this pathway, however, may be most

affordable electricity generation under any of the three pathways. Generation costs decline steadily in real terms

across the period, and by the end of the period are almost half of what they are in 2016. This is due to renewables

with storage becoming a very cost effective supply alternative compared to coal fired power, coupled with the earlier

decommissioning of power stations. Increased competitiveness due to the factors listed above may also support

the development of less capital-intensive manufacturing in South Africa (not linked to beneficiation), which may

diversify manufacturing exports.


Employment: A focus on capital intensive heavy industry and mining is likely to constrain employment creation,

particularly when it is considered that increased mechanisation will be required to continue the extraction of many

of South Africa’s mineral resources. Coal mining is significantly lower under this pathway compared to the “Clean

Coal” pathway, and this will lead to employment losses in mining and in transport (coupled with the early retirement

of coal-fired power stations). Employment will also be lost in CTL after 2040 and probably across the chemicals

value-chain (unless feedstock can be imported at competitive prices). Green industries will, however, support job

creation, particularly employment-intensive activities like building retrofits, recycling (particularly in logistics) and

the production of equipment for embedded generation with storage. Employment in agriculture is likely to increase

due to increased demand for biofuels. Increased public transport could support employment creation but the overall

impact is not clear since employment may fall in the taxi industry due to a migration to more efficient forms of public

transport, and urban densification and nodal development may stimulate increased employment to provide local

services – but overall the size of the relatively employment intensive services sector will shrink under this pathway.

Should less capital-intensive manufacturing increase, as the discussion in the previous paragraph suggests, that

could lead to significant employment creation.

Income inequality & poverty: The focus on capital intensive and relatively technologically advanced

manufacturing linked to beneficiation does not bode well for addressing inequality and poverty, as most of the

benefits will go to semi and highly skilled labour. The prospect of less capital-intensive manufacturing in the future,

however, is encouraging. If it is able to absorb significant amounts of low skilled labour, that could make a

meaningful contribution to addressing inequality and poverty. Increased em ployment in the agriculture sector would

also address inequality and poverty, but its impact is expected to be relatively small as the contribution of the

agriculture and forestry sector to the economy shrinks slightly under this pathway.

Externalities: The emphasis on mining and heavy industry points toward air pollution and water usage being a

problem, but this is counteracted by the early retirement of all coal -fired power stations, the closure of CTL and a

reduction in coal mining. The shift from road to rail, coupled with the lowest demand for liquid fuels, under any of

the pathways also further reduces air pollution, and points towards the negative externalities linked to road transport

of coal and other minerals being less of a concern than under the “Clean Coal” pathway.

5.3 Pathway 3: Reduced demand in a services economy

Overview: The “Reduced Demand” pathway is very different to the first two pathways, and is driven primarily by a

significant acceleration of the current trend away from heavy industry and manufacturing towards a strongly

services-based economy. The importance of the agricultural sector also increases substantially, supported by rural

development activities. This accelerated structural change, coupled with behaviour change, culminates in

significantly reduced electricity demand, with little new electricity generation capacity being built. Grid connected

capacity is supplemented by decentralised generation in the commercial, residential and agricultural sectors. There

is some early decommissioning of existing coal power stations as Kusile comes online.

Exports & competitive advantage: There is a significant reduction in the exports of minerals and intermediate

inputs (e.g. iron and steel) compared to the other two pathways. Manufactured output from green industries can

contribute to exports, but reduced domestic demand for both electric vehicles and grid -scale renewables

components will make it difficult to achieve economies of scale. There may still be opportunities in producing smaller

scale renewable solutions coupled with storage for export into the African market, as manufacturing capacity grows

to meet the local demand for such products. Agricultural exports could increase due to improved efficiencies across

local value chains increasing cost competitiveness, with rural development activities increasing the scale of the


industry, but it is not clear whether this would materialise in the presence of increased local biofuels demand. There

is also likely to be limited capacity for forestry expansion, although a decline in activities like paper and pulp

production locally could free up lumber products for export. An increase in imports of certain meat products could

be seen (but this this will be contained by the move to a plant-rich diet by most South Africans). A shift from road

to rail coupled with optimised freight logistics will improve competitiveness by reducing logistics costs. A significant

reduction in the industrial demand for chemicals means it is unclear whether there will be incre ased imports of

chemicals or chemical inputs as a result of the closure of CTL in 2040 and reduction in refining capacity linked to

lower liquid fuel demand. The bulk of export earnings will have to come from trade in services via endeavours like

business process outsourcing, medical service outsourcing, financial services and engineering and consulting. The

average cost of generating grid electricity is not particularly cheap under this pathway compared to the “Rapid

Decarbonisation” pathway, and although the carbon intensity of the economy is the lowest of the three pathways,

the grid emission factor is the highest. This is a result of decreased demand and the retention of coal -fired power

stations (with only some retiring early). The prevalence of decentralised generation in the agriculture and

commercial sectors should enable exporters to use low-carbon and low-cost electricity as a competitive advantage,

as should the ability to utilise cheaper labour outside of metropolitan areas (although the benefit o f this may be

eroded by the skill requirements of export services).

Employment: The decline of mining, manufacturing and beneficiation sectors will lead to job losses, and will have

knock-on effects on employment in transport and at export facilities. Employment will also fall in the automotive

industry, liquid fuels sector, the electricity sector, the GTL/CTL sector and across the chemicals value -chain. Green

industries will, however, support job creation, particularly employment-intensive activities like building retrofits,

recycling (particularly in logistics) and the installation of embedded generation with storage. Employment in

agriculture is likely to increase due to increased demand for biofuels, the impact of rural development activities on

demand, and sustainable practices like managed grazing. Increased public transport will also support employment

creation, and growth in the services sector will lead to a significant increase in employment. Specialised services

like cross-border engineering and consulting may be away of retaining some of the highly skilled workers made

redundant in the mining and beneficiation sectors. The development of the transport and ICT infrastructure required

to stimulate economic activity in rural areas and slow urbanisation will also create short-term employment

opportunities which may assist with reducing transition costs.

Income inequality & poverty: A move away from capital intensive manufacturing and beneficiation activities, which

require largely semi-skilled and skilled workers, is likely to reduce inequality, but mining is still a large employer of

low skilled employees.4 A decline in mining employment is therefore expected to have a negative impact on

inequality and poverty. Given the prevalence of low skilled employment in the agriculture sector, increased

employment in this sector is likely to have a positive impact on inequality and poverty. Transport and ICT

infrastructure projects are likely to have a positive impact on inequality in the short term. The services sector

straddles a wide range of activities and thus provides opportunities for employees with all skill levels. Considering

the decline in South Africa’s major export industries assumed under this pathway, it is inevitable that the focus will

have to be on employment creation with the traded services sector. This sub-section of the services sector is likely

to be skewed towards semi-skilled and skilled employment. Thus, while a move from the kind of capital -intensive

manufacturing and beneficiation activities that is prevalent in South Africa to the services sector is likely to reduce

inequality, it is not clear how significant this impact would be for this pathway.

4 Giv en South Africa’s recent track record in creating low skilled employment, measures to support low-skilled job creation may be required.


Slowing down urbanisation rates, and providing more people with the opportunity to be productive from more remote

locations, is expected to reduce the productivity gap between those in cities (as a result of agglomeration effects)

and those in more rural areas – which in turn should at least partially equalise income levels between urban and

rural dwellers. While this could reduce income inequality, it is probably the highly skilled that would benefit most

from this effect as they are more likely to have jobs that can be done remotely. But the concentration of more highly

skilled and well remunerated individuals in less urban areas is likely to increase the demand for goods and services

in these locations, which may then end up benefiting low skilled and semi -skilled individuals. Thus, while it is

plausible that the drastic structural change to the economy envisaged under the “Reduced Demand” pathway could

have a positive impact on inequality and poverty, it is difficult to speculate on the quantum of the impact.

Externalities: The decline of mining (including coal) and heavy industry, the early retirement of some coal power

stations, and the closure of CTL is likely to lessen water usage and various forms of pollution. The decline in mineral

and intermediate input exports, coupled with a shift from road to rail, will reduce the negative externalities linked to

road transport and will also have a positive impact on air quality. Liquid fuel demand is lowest under the “Reduced

Demand” pathway, which suggests that air pollution impacts are also lowest under this pathway.

6 CONCLUSIONS

The pathways development and analysis presented in this report has demonstrated a number of alternative ways

in which South Africa’s GHG emissions profile could evolve to 2050. The pathways have been deve loped with the

recognition that mitigation action to meet South Africa’s stated ambitions (currently expressed in the PPD) may

need to go further than what is likely to be achieved with existing measures (WEM) and even under the WAM (with

additional measures) projection. Further opportunities to reduce emissions exist when structural changes to the

economy are considered (rather than a (sometimes unrealistic) continuation of the status quo) and the range of low

carbon activities available is extended to include behavioural and societal changes. The three pathways thus

explore the implications of these opportunities together with an increase in the level of ambition for some of the

mitigation measures included in the WAM beyond what might be considered feasib le currently.

To describe the pathways, three different narratives were constructed – recognising that these narratives serve as

examples of plausible futures and associated emission pathways (of which there are many) . The three narratives

were selected to give some perspectives on quite different futures and are not intended to be compared to each

other necessarily. Two of these focus on optimisation of the benefit from our mineral resources and leverage off

existing industrial structures to drive a manufacturing based and beneficiation focused economy. The third narrative

continues to see a predominantly services based economy, paired with growth in the agricultural sector together

with a strong focus on demand reduction in all sectors . The three narratives are modelled as pathways through the

adoption of various combinations of activities, with those that have the biggest impacts on emission reductions

including early closure of CTL production and decommissioning of power stations, introduction of clean c oal

technologies, accelerated roll-out of electric vehicles and a transition to a plant based diet.

What the results show is that the resulting pathways are not wildly divergent until about 2040, and until that year

demonstrate a declining trend, which is in line with the current policy position in South Africa – that of achieving a

PPD trajectory. Post 2040 some divergence between the pathways is seen: in the case of a “clean coal” and “rapid

decarbonisation” pathways, emissions begin to rise again, which is explained by growth in manufacturing, growth

in emissions from AFOLU and from waste due to the increasing population. The primary contributor to this growth

in emissions is, however, the growth in the manufacturing sector. This may suggest that if the economy is strongly

focused on manufacturing that attention needs to be given to energy efficiency and alternative and low carbon


energy sources. Decoupling emissions growth from economic growth in this sector, which by its nature is energy

intensive, may be challenging. Thus, the type of manufacturing is an important consideration.

It is interesting to note that under all pathways, the electricity sector is no longer a key contributor to emissions

growth showing a steady decline throughout the period. This is primarily a function of the model, which for new

generation capacity consistently selects renewables over other conventional technologies (and nuclear) due to the

relatively lower costs. The emissions profile of the electricity sector is therefore only a function of the utilisation of

existing coal-fired power stations (including Medupi and Kusile), their rate of retirement and the ability to implement

clean coal technologies (specifically CCS). Interestingly, where demand is reduced, renewables pen etration could

be higher, but is constrained by the excess availability of existing coal -based generation. Further decreases in

emissions in this pathway could be achieved through earlier decommissioning of these power stations.

The pathways together with the Pathways model, serve to increase the understanding of low carbon development

in the South African context and the individual and combined contribution of low carbon activities and mitigation

measures in achieving this. This provides a sound basis for decision-making that is needed to inform policy

development on greenhouse gas mitigation. Although the socio-economic implications for each of the pathways

were highlighted in this report, further work is required to quantify the socio-economic impact of these (and other)

pathways. A socio-economic assessment would provide an understanding of which specific activities or

combinations of activities have the greatest positive benefits that need to be capitalised upon, and which activities

potentially have significant negative impacts on the economy that need to be avoided or mitigated? Alignment with

work on Developing Models and Pathways for a Low-carbon Economy and Climate-resilient Society under

development by the DPME (National Planning Commission) is a further consideration.


A LOW CARBON ACTIVITIES In this section the low carbon activities that contribute to the pathways are summarised. The figure below provides a key for interpreting the low carbon activity “dashboards”.

Note that the emission reductions associated with each activity are not additive, and may be reduced when considered in combi nation with other activities.

FIGURE 5: OVERVIEW OF THE LOW CARBON ACTIVITY DASHBOARDS

Low carbon activity title

Tick boxes indicate which pathway the activity is assumed

to feature in

A brief description of the activity along with key

assumptions can be found here. A more detailed technical

description of the activity can be found in Output C1.

The linkages to other sectors are briefly described here.

The positive and negative socio-economic implications of

each of the activities are noted here. This also extends to

positive and negative environmental and technical issues

associated with the activities.

This gauge shows the magnitude of the cumulative emission

reductions between 2015 and 2050 in large numbers at the top

of the gauge. The gauge shows the magnitude graphically,

with “red” values being below 165 MtCO2e; “amber” values

being between 165 and 330 MtCO2e; and “green” values being

greater than 330 MtCO2e.

This graph breaks down the cumulative emission saving into

5-year blocks to give an indication of the when the savings

occur. Note that some periods may have negative

“reductions”, which shows that “reductions” in one area are

offset by emission increases in other sectors of the economy.


DECOMMISSIONING OF CTL

Clean Coal ☐ Rapid Decarbonisation Reduced Demand

DESCRIPTION LINKAGES SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

This activity is defined as the early decommissioning of

CTL plants in South Africa. Decommissioning is

assumed to occur in 2040.

This activity impacts liquid fuel

supply, the chemicals sector and

coal mining.

Positive:

Improvement in local air quality

Gas supply and engineering skills become available for alternative uses

Negative:

Loss of plant, mining and value chain jobs

Implications for local communities and businesses

Engineering skills may be lost via emigration

Local energy security reduced due to increase dependence on

imported crude

Increased dependence on imported chemicals

Negative impact on balance of payments

CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS REDUCTION (2015 – 2050) EMISSION REDUCTIONS OVER 5-YEAR PERIODS

571 Mt

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 0 0 0 0 53 263 256

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


EARLY DECOMMISSIONING – all coal-fired power stations

Clean Coal ☐ Rapid Decarbonisation Reduced Demand ☐


This activity relates to the early closure of older

operational coal-fired power stations in South Africa. If

included, power stations are closed four years earlier

than the closure date used in the IRP 2016.

The electricity sector is impacted by this activity as well

as the coal mining sector.

Positive:

Improvement in local air and water quality

Reduction in water demand

Reduction in externalities linked to road transport of

coal

Negative:

Loss of power plant, mining and supply chains jobs


Increased electricity price if new investment is

required in other forms of generation

Risk of stranded assets if newer power stations are

retired before the end of their expected useful life.



531 Mt

CCS/CCU - industry

Clean Coal Rapid Decarbonisation ☐ Reduced Demand ☐


Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is the installation of

technologies that capture CO2 from fuel combustion or

industrial processes, and stores it underground or

under the ocean floor, preventing the CO2 from being

released into the atmosphere. Carbon, capture and use

(CCU) is where capture CO2 is utilised as a

replacement for petrochemical feedstocks in the

synthesis of chemicals and fuels, in the cultivation of

algae, mineral carbonation and cement curing and

desalination.

This activity is often associated with increased electricity

and fuel use, impacting the electricity sector, petroleum

refining, other energy and coal mining sector.

Positive:

Ongoing realisation of value from coal, avoiding

negative impacts of closing existing infrastructure

Potential for job creation and revenue generation

when CCU is used to produce new product

Investment in new infrastructure

Negative:

Very high RD&I and roll-out costs

Lack of certainty of long-term stability of CCS

Uncertainty whether CCS can be used at scale in

South Africa

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 0 65 143 82 151 55 36

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


In the pathways model emissions reductions are

assumed from chemicals, iron and steel, cement and

lime processes using these technologies.


389 Mt

CCS/CCU – power generation Clean Coal Rapid Decarbonisation ☐ Reduced Demand ☐


Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is the installation of

technologies that capture CO2 from fuel combustion or

industrial processes, and stores it underground or

under the ocean floor, preventing the CO2 from being

released into the atmosphere. Carbon, capture and use

(CCU) is where capture CO2 is utilised as a

replacement for petrochemical feedstocks in the

synthesis of chemicals and fuels, in the cultivation of

algae, mineral carbonation and cement curing and

desalination.

This activity is often associated with increased fuel use,

impacting the coal mining sector.

Positive:

Ongoing realisation of value from coal, avoiding

negative impacts of closing existing infrastructure

Potential for job creation and revenue generation

when CCU is used to produce new products


Negative:

Very high RD&I and roll-out costs

Lack of certainty of long-term stability of CCS

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total -2 3 36 81 89 91 92

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


In the pathways model CCS/CCU is applied to Medupi

and Kusile from 2030. Uncertainty whether CCS can be used at scale in

South Africa

Increased water use and water intensity


327 Mt

ELECTRIC VEHICLES – High Penetration with CNG



This activity includes the accelerated uptake of all types

of electric vehicles: battery electric vehicles (EV), plug-

in hybrid vehicles (PHEV), hybrid electric vehicles

(HEV) and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEV) as well as

CNG vehicles to replace conventional internal

combustion engine (ICE) vehicles (both petrol and

diesel).

The uptake of electric vehicles impacts on electricity

demand and liquid fuel demand.

Positive:

Reduced exposure to volatile oil prices

Reduced oil imports

Improved air quality

Opportunities for local manufacture of EVs and

batteries

Requires investment in supporting infrastructure

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 0 0 16 78 78 78 78

0

20

40

60

80

100

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


Sales of passenger ICE vehicles stop by 2040 in this

scenario.

Negative:

Higher capital costs for vehicles, but lower

operational and maintenance costs

Job losses if EVs are largely imported


244 Mt

PLANT-RICH DIET

Clean Coal ☐ Rapid Decarbonisation ☐ Reduced Demand


A plant rich diet is a demand-side activity to reduce

emissions from the AFOLU sector through a shift from a

meat-centred Western diet. A plant rich diet is defined

as a dietary choice to reduce meat consumption,

especially red meat, in favour of plant-based food.

There are knock-on implications for the AFOLU and

electricity sector. Lower livestock populations will affect

the generation of electricity by anaerobic digesters

through a decrease in available manure. Electricity

generation from anaerobic digestion is accounted for in

the electricity sector.

Positive:

Increased productivity on agricultural land

Reduction of negative impacts of cattle farming

Potential long-term health benefits from reduced

exposure to growth hormones and other

supplements used in animal farming

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 1 15 29 43 58 55 43

0

20

40

60

80

100

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


It is assumed that 50% of the population will adopt a

plant-rich diet by 2050, with chicken remaining the

dominant meat consumed

Negative:

Job losses in the meat sector, potentially offset by

employment gains in producing non-meat based

food supplied


195 Mt

MANAGED GRAZING

Clean Coal Rapid Decarbonisation ☐ Reduced Demand


Managed grazing is an agricultural practice that

sequesters carbon in grassland soils by adjusting

stocking rates, intensity of grazing and utilising other

techniques such as rotational grazing, improved

continuous grazing, adaptive multi-paddock grazing

shifts

This activity does not have implications for any sector.

Positive:

Reduced in erosion

Reduced pressure on land, including on land not

previously used for pasture

Job creation in managed grazing

Increase resilience to drought

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 10 18 26 32 36 37 36

0

10

20

30

40

50

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


By 2050 15% of grassland will be under managed grazing. A sequestration of 0.63 tonnes of carbon per hectare is assumed.

Negative:

Increased cost of agriculture, although this may be

outweighed by benefits in terms of productivity and

resilience of land


143 Mt

CURBING POPULATION GROWTH

Clean Coal Rapid Decarbonisation Reduced Demand


Reduced population growth is defined as the increased

adoption and accessibility of reproductive healthcare

and family planning for woman and a reduction of

migration into South Africa.

It is assumed that the population grows at 0.23% per

annum, aligning the European Union growth rates.

Population is linked to the transport, waste, residential

and AFOLU sector. Consequently, a decrease in

national population will result in a decrease in fuel and

electricity consumption and emissions in these sectors.

Positive:

Reduced demand for infrastructure and natural

capital resources could divert funding to human

capital investment

Reduced unemployment rate and higher wages

could address extreme inequality n South Africa

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 4 10 16 21 26 31 36

0

10

20

30

40

50

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


Negative:

Aging population could put pressure on social

welfare system

Declining population growth can reduce economic

growth rates. However, with high unemployment

this may not be the case in South Africa

CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS REDUCTION (2015 – 2050) EMISSION REDUCTIONS OVER 5-YEAR PERIDOS

138 Mt

INCREASED BIOFUELS

Clean Coal ☐ Rapid Decarbonisation Reduced Demand


Biofuels is defined as fuels produced from biomass

feedstock, particularly agriculture products such as

sugar cane, sorghum and maize, replacing

conventional liquid fuels.

The increased uptake of biofuels will have

implications for the petroleum refining and other

energy industries sector as a result of

decreased fuel demand.

Positive:

Job creation through biomass production, collection and

transportation, as well as construction and operation facilities

Rural development

Diversification of energy carriers for transport

Reduced oil imports and exposure to volatile oil prices

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 4 13 19 22 24 27 28

0

10

20

30

40

50

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


In the pathways, it is assumed that the penetration of

biofuels in the road and aviation sector is increased.

Negative:

Negative impact on food and feed production if biomass is

grown in preference to food/feed crops

Impacts of replacing natural habitats or rotational cropping

with monocultures on biodiversity and ability to generate

income


122 Mt

INCREASED SHIFT TO GAS



Increased shift to gas can be defined as shift towards a

gas-intensive energy mix, where gas largely displaces

coal, electricity and other fuels as an energy source

across sectors.

A shift towards gas away from coal has

implications for the coal mining sector,

due to a decreased demand for coal-fired

power and coal in direct applications.

Positive:

Diversification of the country’s energy mix,


Job creation in the expansion of gas infrastructure

Lower carbon alternative to coal/liquid fuels industry

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 3 8 13 18 21 26 33

0

10

20

30

40

50

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


There is a fuel switch to gas in the residential sector,

transport sector and manufacturing sector.

Reduced risk of contamination due to accidental spills compared

to liquid fuels

Negative:

Methane leakage may undo the mitigation benefits

Negative environmental impacts if gas obtained from fracking

Contributes to air pollution (NOx), but less so than other fossil

fuels


112 Mt

EARLY DECOMMISSIONING – some coal-fired power stations



This activity relates to the early closure of some older

operational coal-fired power stations in South Africa. If

included, power stations are closed four years earlier

than the closure date used in the IRP 2016.

The electricity sector is impacted by this activity as well

as the coal mining sector.

Positive:

Improvement in local air and water quality

Reduction in water demand

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 0 0 7 10 18 31 44

0

10

20

30

40

50

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


Reduction in externalities linked to road transport of

coal

Negative:

Loss of power plant, mining and supply chains jobs


Increased electricity price if new investment is

required in other forms of generation

Risk of stranded assets if newer power stations are

retired before the end of their expected useful life.


82 Mt

WORK FROM HOME



Working from home replaces the need to travel to and

from work, particularly during peak congestion hours.

The adoption of this activity has implications for the

electricity sector, a consequence of increased electricity

Positive:

Increased productivity and employee wellness

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 0 60 21 0 0 0 0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)0 Mt > 500 Mt


Increasingly efficient and advanced ICT, coupled with

the roll out of fibre optic, will support the adoption of this

activity.

It is assumed that 20% of the applicable work force will

work from home by 2050.

demand in the residential sector and decreased

electricity demand in the commercial sector. In addition,

a decreased demand for liquid fuels will have

implications for the other energy and petroleum refining

sector.

Lower congestion and results in other benefits of

reducing cars on the road

Negative:

Some studies have indicated a negative impact on

company culture, which may impact productivity

and retention rates

Increased domestic consumption of electricity


82 Mt

REDUCED FOOD WASTE



Reduced food waste relates to minimizing food loss and

wastage from along all stages of the value chain

The adoption of this activity has implications for the

waste sector. Since waste is diverted from landfill, landfill

gas emissions are assumed to decrease. As a result the

Positive:

Reduced waste going to landfill

Increased food security

Reduced input requirements for food value chains

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 12 16 17 12 10 8 6

0

5

10

15

20

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


To account for reduced food waste; in the pathways

there is a 50% reduction in food waste in South Africa

by 2050 in comparison to the projections.

impact of other waste mitigation measures, such as

composting and electricity generation, will decrease. Significant water savings in agriculture

Improved working conditions and increased income

for individuals working in waste separation due to

reduced waste contamination

Negative:

Middle-class guilt about wasting food


79 Mt

IMPROVED FUEL EFFICIENCY

Clean Coal Rapid Decarbonisation ☐ Reduced Demand


This activity is defined as increased fuel efficiency in

ICE vehicles through improved driver behaviour and

technological improvements in vehicles, reducing the

demand for liquid fuels.

This activity will have implications for liquid fuels

demand, reflected in the petroleum refining and other

energy sector.

Positive:

Improved local air quality and associated health

benefits

Lower consumption of fuels resulting increased

energy security and imports spend

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 0 2 4 9 14 21 29

0

10

20

30

40

50

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


In the pathways, fuel efficiency improves by 2% per

annum. Fuel cost savings can lead to higher savings rate or

increased expenditure on other goods and services

which may be more labour intense

Negative:

Job losses in the liquid fuels industry

Potential for stranded assets in liquid fuels

industry, particularly distribution.


59 Mt

SLOWING URBANISATION



Urbanisation is defined as the shift from rural areas to

urban areas. Urban sprawl, inefficient public transport

and higher standards of living can all contribute to the

high energy consumption of urban areas. This activity

seeks to slow the rate of urbanisation by providing

This activity has linkages to waste sector, resulting in a

decrease in waste emissions.

Positive:

Support opportunities for growth in rural economies

Can help slow the widening income disparities

between rural and urban populations

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 1 4 8 11 13 12 10

0

5

10

15

20

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


sustainable rural livelihoods, which are less energy

intensive

In the pathways, it is assumed that 70% of the

population will live in urban areas by 2050 as opposed

to 77% in the projections.

Allows better planning in urban environments due to

reduced population pressures

Negative:

Optimised design in high density urban centres can

offer efficiencies in delivery of goods and services

High-density living reduces many environmental

impacts

Urbanisation can support economic growth


58 Mt

INCREASED RECYCLING

Clean Coal Rapid Decarbonisation Reduced Demand


Increased recycling can defined as the increased

recovery of recyclable paper material, plastic, metal and

The diversion of waste to landfill will have implications

for the electricity sector. Due to less waste available for

energy from waste and electricity generation from landfill

Positive:

Job creation

Increased revenue generation for recyclers

Reduced waste to landfill

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 0 1 4 7 10 14 23

0

10

20

30

40

50

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)0 Mt > 500 Mt


glass from municipal solid waste, diverting waste that is

typically disposed of in municipal landfills.

In the pathways, the recycling rate of paper and other

materials increases to 75% (from 50% in the WAM) and

38% respectively.

gas, electricity generation from these sources will

decrease. Reduced dependence on inputs for primary

production, including fossil fuels or CTL/GTL for

plastic production

Negative:

Negative environmental impacts like the use of

energy and chemicals in the recycling process


55 Mt

ELECTRIC VEHICLES – Moderate penetration



This activity includes the accelerated uptake of all types

of electric vehicles: battery electric vehicles (EV), plug-

in hybrid vehicles (PHEV), hybrid electric vehicles

(HEV) and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEV) to replace

The uptake of electric vehicles impacts on electricity

demand and liquid fuel demand.

Positive:

Reduced exposure to volatile oil prices

Reduced oil imports

Improved air quality

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 0 1 3 5 9 15 21

0

10

20

30

40

50

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles

(both petrol and diesel). Opportunities for local manufacture of EVs and

batteries

Requires investment in supporting infrastructure

Negative:

Higher capital costs for vehicles, but lower

operational and maintenance costs

Job losses if EVs are largely imported


52 Mt

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 0 2 9 9 10 11 11

0

5

10

15

20

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


ADDITIONAL LOW CARBON ACTIVITIES

Low carbon activities with cumulative emission reductions (2015 to 2050) less than 50 MtCO2eq are summarised in the table below.

TABLE 13: ADDITIONAL LOW CARBON ACTIVITIES

Low carbon activity Pathway Description Cumulative emission reduction

(2015 – 2050)

[MtCO2eq]

ALTERNATIVE CEMENT Reduced Demand Alternative cement is defined as increased clinker substitution w ith alternative materials including w aste products, f ly ash and artif icial gypsum among others.

45

NON-MOTORISED TRANSPORT - w ith densification

Rapid Decarbonisation Non-motorised transport can be defined as cities and urban areas that are designed to encourage w alking and bicycling, replacing motorised road vehicle use.

34

ENERGY FROM WASTE Clean Coal

Reduced Demand

Energy from w aste is defined as the use of w aste material for electricity generation through the incineration, gasif ication, pyrolysis or anaerobic digestion

29

URBAN DENSIFICATION Clean Coal

Rapid Decarbonisation

Urban densif ication is defined as the increased number of residential units and mixed use space per square kilometre in an urban area

24

CITY PLANNING – nodal development

Clean Coal

Reduced Demand

Nodal economic development is defined as city planning at concentrates jobs and services in a number of specif ic economic nodes across a city

24

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Reduced Demand Autonomous vehicles are vehicles that drive w ithout the need for human intervention. 23

RAPID MODAL SHIFT Clean Coal


Reduced Demand

This activity can be defined as the increased use of public transport for passenger transportation and the increased use of freight rail, replacing road freight

20

COMPOSTING Reduced Demand This activity converts the organic fraction of the waste stream into compost. 18

DECENTRALISED GENERATION – w ith energy storage


Reduced Demand

Decentralisation generation is captured as “rooftop solar”, which includes decentralised solar photovoltaic systems on residential and commercial buildings as w ell as decentralised generation in the manufacturing and agricultural sector.

17

BIOMASS ENERGY Reduced Demand Biomass energy is defined as the use of dedicated biomass feedstock for electricity generation, placing replacing conventional coal and gas-fired power stations.

9

HIGH-SPEED PASSENGER RAIL Clean Coal


Reduced Demand

High-speed passenger rail is defined as the use of high-speed rail to travel betw een main city centres, replacing travel by air and road.

8

RETROFITTING Clean Coal

Reduced Demand

Retrofitting is defined as the renovation of existing buildings to incorporate high eff iciency heating and cooling systems, improved insulation and upgraded management systems.

8

CAR SHARING Clean Coal

Reduced Demand

Car sharing is defined as the increase in car sharing through increased occupancy of private vehicles, replacing commuting in single or low occupancy vehicles

7


Low carbon activity Pathway Description Cumulative emission reduction

(2015 – 2050) [MtCO2eq]

NON-MOTORISED TRANSPORT Reduced Demand Non-motorised transport can be defined as cities and urban areas that are designed to encourage w alking and bicycling, replacing motorised road vehicle use.

6

NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT Reduced Demand Nutrient management is defined as reducing synthetic fertilizer use to reduce N2O emissions associated w ith the AFOLU sector.

4

SMALLER VEHICLES Reduced Demand Smaller vehicles can be defined as a shift in vehicle class from vehicles w ith a large engine to a vehicle w ith a smaller engine and greater fuel eff iciency

4

TELEPRESENCE Reduced Demand Telepresence can be defined as the replacement of travel for w ork with telepresence technologies, reducing the need for air travel and travel in ICE vehicles.

4

IMPROVE EFFICIENCIES ALONG

THE AGRICULTURAL VALUE CHAIN

Clean Coal

Reduced Demand

This activity is defined as improved energy eff iciency of activities that occur along the

agricultural value chain. This includes production, post-harvest handling, processing, cooling and packing, storage and transport

3

OPTIMISED LOGISTICS Rapid Decarbonisation

Reduced Demand

Optimised logistics can be defined as the reduction in freight tonne kilometres through improved driver behaviour, intelligent transport, inter-modality and eff icient f leet management.

3

SMART GLASS Clean Coal

Reduced Demand

Smart glass is glass that controls the amount of light and heat allow ed to pass into a building in response to changes in the outside environment

2

GREEN ROOFS Clean Coal

Reduced Demand

Green roofs are defined as building roofs that use an insulating layer of vegetation to reflect or absorb light w ith to reduce space heating and cooling energy demand

2

ALTERNATIVE BUILDING

MATERIALS

Reduced Demand This activity is defined as the increase use of alternative building materials, moving aw ay

from traditional Portland cement.

1

INTELLIGENT BUILDINGS Clean Coal


Reduced Demand

Intelligent buildings can be defined as residential or commercial buildings f itted w ith

automation and control systems that regulate temperature, lighting and appliances.

1


B LOW CARBON ACTIVITY CLUSTERS In this section clusters of low carbon activities are summarised. The figure below provides a key for interpreting the cluster “dashboards”. Note that the emission reductions

associated with each cluster are not additive, and may be reduced when considered in combination with other activities and cl usters.

FIGURE 6: OVERVIEW OF CLUSTER DASHBOARD

Cluster title

A brief description of cluster as well as the low carbon

activities that are included in the cluster. A more detailed

description of each low carbon activity is found in Appendix

A.

The linkages to other sectors and implications are briefly

described here.

This gauge shows the magnitude of the cumulative

emission reductions between 2015 and 2050 in large

numbers at the top of the gauge. The gauge shows the

magnitude graphically, with “red” values being below

165 MtCO2e; “amber” values being between 165 and

330 MtCO2e; and “green” values being greater than 330

MtCO2e. This graph breaks down the cumulative emission saving into

5-year blocks to give an indication of the when the savings

occur. Note that some periods may have negative

“reductions”, which shows that “reductions” in one area are

offset by emission increases in other sectors of the economy.


SUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLE

DESCRIPTION LINKAGES

This cluster focuses on activities that encourage

sustainability livelihoods and lifestyle. It includes:

Reduced food waste

Plant-rich diet

Increased recycling

Composting

Reduced food w aste, increased recycling and composting divert w aste from landfill. As a result, less w aste is available for

electricity generating measures such as landfill gas electricity generation, energy from w aste and anaerobic digestion of w aste. This has implications for the electricity sector. A plant-rich diet also has implications for the electricity sector. This activity reduces the number of livestock required. Consequently, the amount of manure available for anaerobic digestion in the AFOLU w ill decrease. In general, emissions from w aste and livestock will decrease in the Waste and AFOLU sector as a result of this

cluster.


345 Mt

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 11 22 36 49 63 75 90

0

20

40

60

80

100

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


TRANSPORT – technological


This cluster focuses on technological low carbon

activities in the transport sector. This includes:

Accelerated penetration of EV, PHEV, HEV and

FCEV

Autonomous vehicles

Improved fuel efficiency

This cluster will have implications for liquid fuels demand and electricity demand, affecting the petroleum refinery

and other energy sectors and the electricity sector respectively. The accelerated penetration of all types of EV will

lead to a decrease in liquid fuels demand and an increase in electricity demand. A substantial increase in electricity

demand may cause changes to the electricity build plan. Improved fuel efficiency is applied to ICE vehicles, thus will

result in a decrease in liquid fuels demand as ICE vehicles become more efficient. Autonomous vehicles apply to

both ICE and EV and are associated with improved efficiencies. As a result, the demand for liquid fuels and electricity

will decrease as autonomous vehicles are adopted.


309 Mt

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 2 18 36 53 70 70 61

0

20

40

60

80

100

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


AGRICULTURAL EFFICIENCIES


This cluster focuses on agricultural interventions

including:

Nutrient management

Managed grazing

Increased efficiencies along the agricultural value

chain

Within the cluster, nutrient management and managed grazing only impact emissions within the AFOLU sector and

do not have energy use implications. Improved efficiencies along the agricultural value chain, reduces demand for

electricity and fuel, mainly coal and diesel. This has implications for the electricity sector, petroleum refinery sector

and coal mining sector.


149 Mt

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 11 22 36 49 63 75 90

0

20

40

60

80

100

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


TRANSPORT – behavioural


This cluster focuses on behavioural changes within the

transport sector. The cluster includes the following low

carbon activities:

Car sharing

Work from home

Telepresence

This cluster will have implications for liquid fuels demand. All three low carbon activities result in a decrease in

passenger kilometres (most in the road transport sector, but also in the aviation and railways sector). Consequently,

the demand for liquid fuels will decrease. This has implications for the petroleum refinery sector and other energy

sector.


94 Mt

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 12 18 19 15 12 10 8

0

5

10

15

20

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


BUILDINGS CLUSTER


This cluster focuses on low carbon activities that are

implemented in residential and commercial buildings.

These include:

Green roofs

Smart glass

Retrofitting

Alternative cement



Within the cluster the adoption of green roofs, retrofitting and smart glass will reduce the demand for electricity and

other fuels, particularly coal, paraffin and biomass within the commercial and residential sector. Intelligent buildings

will reduce the demand for electricity in these sectors. Alternative cement and alternative building materials reduce

fuel (mainly coal) and electricity demand in the cement sector and reduce process emissions emitted. The main

sectors affected by this cluster are the electricity sector and the coal mining sector.


60 Mt

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 3 5 8 8 9 12 14

0

5

10

15

20

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


CITIES CLUSTER


This cluster focuses on low carbon activities in cities

related to city planning and development. This includes:

Urban densification/City planning


This cluster will have implications for liquid fuels demand. Urban densification and city planning reduce passenger

kilometres as residential areas, jobs and services are concreted into dense cities or nodes. Non-motorised transport,

such as walking and bicycling, are supported by urban densification and replace passenger kilometres in private

vehicles. Consequently, the demand for liquid fuels in the transport sector will decrease, impacting petroleum refining


34 Mt

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 1 4 5 6 7 6 6

0

5

10

15

20

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)0 Mt > 500 Mt


TRANSPORT – public transport and freight


This cluster includes public transport and freight-related

transport activities. This includes:

High-speed passenger rail

Modal shift: road freight to rail freight

Modal shift: private transport to public transport

Optimised logistics

This cluster will have implications for the petroleum and other energy sector as the demand for liquid fuels will

decrease over time. Conversely, electricity demand will increase as a result of the uptake of high -speed passenger

rail and the shift to freight rail and Metrorail. The increase in electricity demand will have implications for the electricity

sector, affecting the resulting build plan.


31 Mt

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 0 2 6 6 7 6 4

0

5

10

15

20

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


COMBINATION CLUSTERS

ALL TRANSPORT


This cluster includes all transport –related low carbon

activities. This includes low carbon activities under

Transport – public transport and freight, Transport –

behavioural and Transport – technological as well as

the adoption of biofuels in the transport sector and

smaller vehicles.

The adoption of low carbon transport activities will result in a decline in liquid fuels demand, as a result of decrease

passenger kilometres, improved fuel efficiency, modal shifts and the uptake alternative vehicles (such as EV). The

accelerate penetration of EV and a modal shift to freight and passenger rail will lead to an increase in electricity

demand, with implications in the electricity sector. However, the adoption of low carbon activities that reduce

passenger kilometres, coupled with the adoption of EV vehicles, will lead to a smaller increase in electricity demand.


465 Mt

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 17 43 66 79 92 88 78

0

20

40

60

80

100

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt


ALL BEHAVIOURAL CHANGES


This cluster includes focuses on low carbon activities

adopted as a result of a change in behaviour. Activities

that fall under the clusters Transport – behavioural

change and Sustainability lifestyle are included.

As mentioned previously, the Transport – behavioural change cluster will result in a decrease in liquid fuels demand.

The Sustainable Lifestyle cluster has implications for emissions in the AFOLU and waste sector as well as the

electricity sector as less waste is available for electricity generation.


439 Mt

2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050

Total 23 40 55 64 75 86 98

0

20

40

60

80

100

Em

iss

ion

s r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

0 Mt > 500 Mt