alto industry pulse q4 2020
TRANSCRIPT
2
ALTO Industry Pulse Q4 2020
Top countries to complete the surveyALTO is a professional association where educational agencies, language schools,
universities, national and international associations and industry service providers join
together as a global community.
We provide a platform for leaders and decision makers in the industry to further
develop and grow their businesses through networking, professional development
and information exchange.
As a uniting body in a time of crisis, ALTO seeks to use its position to bring the
industry together and facilitate a meaningful conversation about aspects of our
business that impact both immediate issues and long-term viability of the industry as
a whole. We welcome new members to broaden the discussion.
The language and educational travel sector is going through major disruption due to
Covid-19. It is with a spirit of collaboration and free exchange of information that
ALTO conducted a research in July 2020 followed up by a series of Regional Panel
discussions around the world to discuss the impact of the pandemic and highlight key
issues that need to be addressed in order to establish new strategies, ways of working
together, and best practice for the future. The Future of Adult Language Travel: 2020
and Beyond is available on the ALTO webpage.
Facing or already deep into the second wave of Covid-19 depending which part of
the world you’re based in, we felt that it was important to re-assess the summer
projections and get a realistic picture about the financial sustainability of businesses
in the international education industry. Therefore, we created the ALTO Industry Pulse
Q4 2020 survey in October 2020 and once again invited all industry players –
extending the scope to associations and service providers – ALTO members and non-
members to help us create a useful tool for all stakeholders, helping them make
better informed business decisions.
We hope to continue the work quarterly, provided there’s enough interest and
engagement from our friends and colleagues in the industry!
237 organisations completed the survey, we would like to thank them again for
their support and hope they find the report useful.
Organisations, both agents and schools operating in more than one country form
the International category and sent in the highest number of responses.
We received agent survey responses from 21 countries and formed 5
regions from them, similarly to the summer report to keep the results
comparable.
The highest response rates came from the featured countries above. Other
countries participating were France, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, United Kingdom,
Australia, Chile, Germany, Hungary, Israel, Kyrgyzstan, United States
130 Agents ● 92 Schools ● 9 Associations ● 6 Service providers
14 important destination countries sent us survey responses. The ones
listed above were the most active and we analyse them in detail on the
following pages.
Other countries participating were France, Japan, New Zealand, Spain,
Taiwan, Thailand. Note that Australia is not represented in the schools
report due to lack of response.
26%
14%
14%9%
9%
8%
7%
7%
8%United Kingdom International
United States Germany
Malta South Africa
Canada Ireland
Other
Total
92
Schools
12%
12%
11%
11%
9%
8%
8%
7%
5%
5%
12% Brazil Russia
Argentina Spain
International Colombia
Italy Japan
Mexico Turkey
Other
Total
130
Agents
4
22%31%
47%
53%
62%
21%
31%
44%
52%
61%
22%
33%
51%
55%
64%
37%32% 41%
50%
59%
20%
33%
53%57%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Sep–Dec 2020 Jan-May 2021 Jun-Aug 2021 Sep–Dec 2021 Jan-May 2022
ALL Participants ALL Agents ALL Schools Associations Service providers
What percentage of student bookings/revenue compared to 2019 do you expect to receive in:
Unfortunately, we didn’t poll Associations and Service providers during the summer survey therefore we can’t compare their business
predictions compared to the 2019 business level. Still, it’s interesting to see how service providers start as the most pessimistic group
of the industry only hoping to achieve 20% of their 2019 business in Sep-Dec 2020 to the most optimistic figure of 70% for the period
of Jan-May 2022. Associations on the other hand start with the highest recovery prediction of 37% in Sep-Dec 2020 to the lowest 59%
of 2019 revenue in Jan-May 2022.
Agents and Schools follow similar recovery prediction curve, but Schools always estimate a few % higher student numbers for all
periods examined with the biggest difference recorded for Jun-Aug 2021 when agents only hope to achieve 44% of their 2019
bookings and Schools predicting 51%.
5What percentage of student bookings/revenue compared to 2019 do you expect to receive in – SCHOOLS
Schools’ global prediction in the summer survey (Q42020) was to reach 21% of their 2019 business in Sep-Dec 2020, and asked earlier in October
(Q42020) their estimation was almost the same at 22%. The most optimistic countries in the summer survey had to correct their projections in Q4 for the
same Sep-Dec 2020 period: Canada from 30% to 17% and the Malta from 22% to 13%. The only projection improvements happened in Germany and the
US where they estimated to recover 22%/14% of 2019 student numbers but are now more optimistic about Sep-Dec 2020 at 30%/38% respectively.
Going forward into 2021, schools have reduced their level of recovery projections, most sharply in Canada by 20% throughout the year. The US is the
only destination country where schools consistently project 1-7% higher student numbers compared to their summer estimates.
Note that the 4 comparable periods covered in both July and October surveys are between September 2020 – December 2021.
Q32020 data was collected in July 2020 and Q42020 data in October 2020
14% 12% 11%17%
10% 12% 10% 10%
18%21% 22%19%
23%17% 18%
30%
17% 16% 17% 14%
38%
18%
10%
22%
13%
22%
30%
37%33%
36%32%
35%32%
50%
30% 30%27%
34%
41%
35%30% 30%
20%
38% 40%
55%51%
60% 56%55% 56%
67%
47%52% 53%
45%50% 48%
39%
50%
33%
62%
53%
60%55%
68%
54%
65% 62%
80%
53%48% 50%
57% 58% 60%
47%
54%
40%
66%60%
64% 63%
75%
63%
53%
64% 61%55%
70%
Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020
ALL Schools UK International Canada Ireland USA South Africa Malta Germany
Jun-Aug 2020 Sep–Dec 2020 Jan-May 2021 Jun-Aug 2021 Sep–Dec 2021 Jan-May 2022
6What percentage of student bookings/revenue compared to 2019 do you expect to receive in - AGENTS
17%
25%
14% 17% 15% 18%
27%21%
33%
24% 23%17%
27%21% 23%
17%
27% 28%
46%
31%
51%
35%41%
24%
48%
28%
40%
26%
50%
38%
59%
44%
64%
52%
58%
37%
59%
39%
51%
39%
62%
47%
62%
52%
71%
61%57%
42%
61%
46%
53%
48%
65%
58%61%
70%
53%50%
57%63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020 Q32020 Q42020
ALL Agents LATAM Europe&Russia Turkey&MENA Asia International
Jun-Aug 2020 Sep–Dec 2020 Jan-May 2021 Jun-Aug 2021 Sep–Dec 2021 Jan-May 2022
Q32020 data was collected in July 2020 and Q42020 data in October 2020
Agents globally estimated earlier this summer to reach 27% of their 2019 student numbers in Sep-Dec 2020 which they have now reduced to 21%. Every
source region including International agents The most optimistic countries during the summer survey had to correct their projections in Q4 for the same
Sep-Dec 2020 period: Canada from 30% to 17% and the Malta from 22% to 13%. The most impressive projection improvement happened in the US
where they estimated to recover 14% of 2019 student numbers but are now more optimistic about Sep-Dec 2020 at 38%.
Going forward into 2021, schools have reduced their level of recovery projections, most sharply in Canada by 20% throughout the year. The US is the
only destination country where schools project 1-7% higher student numbers compared to their summer estimates.
Note that the 4 comparable periods covered in both July and October surveys are between September 2020 – December 2021.
7Do you have sufficient funds to sustain your business for the next 6 months if the revenue stream stays the same?
The industry average is 51% of organisations have
sufficient funds to sustain their businesses for the
next 6 months.
Way above this average, 78% of Associations and
67% of Service providers report to be secure about
their operations without any support.
Approximately half of both Agents and Schools are
either preparing to make drastic changes, need to
rely on government support schemes or both. Latter
option is most alarming in responding schools’ case
at 22%.
Please see School and Agent breakdown by country
or region in the next two slides. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Service providers
Associations
Schools
Agents
ALL participants
67%
78%
48%
52%
51%
17%
8%
15%
11%
17%
11%
23%
21%
21%
11%
22%
13%
16%
Yes we have the funds
No, we must get government support
No, but we are prepared to make some essential changes to our operations and that will help!
No, we must make essential changes to our operations AND also need government support
8Do you have sufficient funds to sustain your business for the next 6 months if the revenue stream stays the same?
All Schools and breakdown by country
Germany stands out with the 75% of responding
schools claiming to have sufficient funds to carry on
with their operations and Ireland, the USA and
International schools are also in better position than
the industry average of 48%.
Only 14% of South African and 38% of Maltese
schools would be able to support themselves
without intervention.
At this stage when government supports have either
run out or future schemes not yet confirmed, more
schools are ready to make essential changes in their
operations, the UK (33%) and South Africa (29%)
above the industry average of 23%.
The most alarming figure on the chart is 50% of
Canadian schools will need to make changes within
the organisations as well as relying on government
support. 43% of South African and 38% of Maltese
schools are in the same situation.
75%
38%
14%
54%
67%
33%
62%
42%
48%
13%
14%
17%
8%
8%
8%
25%
29%
15%
17%
23%
33%
23%
13%
38%
43%
31%
17%
50%
8%
17%
22%
Germany
Malta
South Africa
USA
Ireland
Canada
International
UK
ALL Schools
Yes, we have the funds
No, we must get government support
No, but we are prepared to make some essential changes to our operations and that will help!
No, we must make essential changes to our operations AND also need government support
9Do you have sufficient funds to sustain your business for the next 6 months if the revenue stream stays the same?
All agents and breakdown by regions
Asian agents have the strongest confidence about
maintaining their business without any support, 73%
have sufficient funds to operate with their current
revenue stream.
Industry average shows that 52% of all agents can
sustain their business, but the picture is worse in
Europe & Russia where only 41% would be able to
survive without drastic action or support.
More than half of Agents in Europe& Russia (59%)
and to a slightly lesser extend Turkey & MENA (56%)
will need to apply for support from their
governments or consider essential changes if their
revenue stream stays at the current level.
It’s a positive sign from Asia and Turkey& MENA
region that none of the participants reported their
situation to be bad enough to fall into the final
category of needing to make changes as well as
relying on government support.
73%
44%
41%
55%
52%
18%
22%
24%
8%
15%
9%
33%
17%
24%
21%
17%
12%
13%
Asia
Turkey&MENA
Europe&Russia
LATAM
ALL Agents
Yes, we have the funds
No, we must get government support
No, but we are prepared to make some essential changes to our operations and that will help!
No, we must make essential changes to our operations AND also need government support
10As a result of the effects of COVID-19 some organisations have stopped operating in the past few months.
Do you see further closures of agencies and schools in the near future within the industry?
All responding Associations and an average of 87%
of the industry predicts to see further closures of
agencies and schools as a result of the COVID-19
pandemic.
Looking at our industry from a slightly different
perspective, Service Providers are expecting to see
closures in the highest ratio of 17%.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Service providers
Associations
Schools
Agents
All participants
83%
100%
95%
81%
87%
17%
3%
11%
8%
2%
8%
5%
Most probably yes Not too many to follow I don't want to comment
ALTO Industry Pulse Q4 2020
Since the industry feels like an extended family to many of us, we included a couple of personal questions to the survey. It was sad to see that 5% of
participating organisations have lost students or colleagues due to the Covid-19 pandemic. We are very sorry for your loss. It highlights the fact that behind
the restrictions, the economic setback and many privileges of life we lost in the last 8 months, there are casualties and grieving families in the background.
Only 5% of all participants are hopeful to see a vaccine developed this year and the majority (46%) are expecting it to be available in the 1st half of 2021. Half of
respondents chose 2nd half of 2021 or 2022, which indicates that uncertainty is still the most prominent word around this worldwide pandemic.
Thank you again for your support and engagement!
Please feel free to share the ALTO Pulse report with industry friends and colleagues and look out for the next round of survey in Q1 2021 www.altonet.org/ALTO-Pulse
You are welcome to visit www.altonet.org to find out more about our projects and events, contact Reka Lenart Association Manager and follow us on social media
#ALTOcpd #ALTOgather