ama social media pres100109
DESCRIPTION
Mike Hess' presentation to the AMA. Mentioned in Gary Stein's ClickZ columnTRANSCRIPT
Social Media and Research
Mike Hess
Executive Vice-President
Research, Marketing Science, and Consumer Insights
Carat
Outline
• Current Climate: Economic and Media• Social Networks• Recent Advances• Navigating the Landscape (BOE)• Maintaining Neutrality in Planning:
Tools/Cases
Source: CNN Opinion Research Poll, August 2009
Economy is Still #1 Issue for US Consumers• Economy leads as biggest concern, but significant drop compared
to prior 3 months• Health Care and Federal Budget Deficit show a steady increase
Spending Less, Staying at Home More• Media Consumption: Points to At-Home
• Avg 2+ person HH: +26 minutes TV per week; 4 hrs 43 minutes per day
• Homes are not downgrading from cable / satellite to broadcast.
Source: Nielsen
• Average daily hours continue to increase, even during recessions
HH Historical Trend: Watching TV
However, Stock Market Shows Signs of Recovery
• The S&P 500 closed at a new interim high 52.7% above the March 9th low, which is 34.0% below the peak in October 2007
Sources: dshort.com (9/09/09)
As of Sept 9, 2009
• Media touchpoints are growing exponentially.
• Media planners need to leverage the data and options to make more effective business decisions
Increasing Complexity in Media Touchpoints
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 720 780
287
321
280
379
370
439
170
158
199
166
117
47
43
24
28
20
14
3
10
8
6
8
11
9
220
171
183
167
178
108
8
22
30
31
28
23
7
11
21
35
By age group
Screen media Other major media
Those 65+ spent much less time with audio, and much more time with newspapers
Those under 25 spent very little time on landline phones
1st screen Audio2nd screen Newspapers3rd screen Magazines4th screen Landline phone
Average Daily Minutes, Core Sample, N=752 observed days, Spring and Fall 2008All participants, including non-users of various media, including concurrent media exposure
.
Television is Still the 800 lb. Gorilla
Avg. 353min (48%) Avg.143min (20%) Avg. 20min (3%) Avg: 8min (1%) Radio Avg. 84min (11%) Avg.14min (2%) Avg. 6min (1%) Avg: 25min (3%)Other Audio 80min (11%)
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
65+ Live TV421min
Web19
Software 16
DVD or VCR11
Email11
Playback via DVR
7
GPS Navigation
4
Environmental/Other video
4
Mobile Talk
3
In-Cinema movie
2
IM0.3
Console games
0.3
Computer Video
0.2
Mobile Text0.06
Mobile Other0.05
Mobile Web
0
Mobile Video
0
55-64 Live TV346min
Web 42
Email38
Software 36
DVD or VCR14
Mobile Talk12
Playback via DVR
9
Environmental/Other video
4
GPS Navigation
4
In-Cinema movie
3
Mobile Web1.3
Computer Video
1.2
Console games
1.2
Mobile Text0.4
Mobile Other
0.2
IM0
Mobile Video
0
45-54 Live TV336min
Software 52
Email51
Web 46
DVD or VCR21
Playback via DVR
19
Mobile Talk18
IM15
Environmental/Other video
5
Console games
3
GPS Navigation
3
Computer Video
2
Mobile Text1.3
Mobile Web0.7
In-Cinema movie
0.6
Mobile Other
0.5
Mobile Video0.13
35-44 Live TV230min
Web 74
Software 62
Email47
DVD or VCR27
Mobile Talk25
Playback via DVR
17
IM15
Console games
5
In-Cinema movie
3
Computer Video
3
Environmental/Other video
3
Mobile Text
2
Mobile Other
0.6
Mobile Web0.6
GPS Navigation
0.3
Mobile Video0.06
25-34 Live TV256min
Web 56
Software 51
Email45
DVD or VCR35
Mobile Talk19
Playback via DVR
16
Console games
14
Environmental/Other video
5
Computer Video
4
IM3
Mobile Web
2
Mobile Text
2
In-Cinema movie
2
GPS Navigation
1.2
Mobile Other
0.6
Mobile Video0.02
18-24 Live TV210min
Web67
Software62
DVD or VCR34
Mobile Talk29
Console games
26
Email20
Playback via DVR
17
IM15
Mobile Text12
Environmental/Other video
9
Computer Video
6
In-Cinema movie
1.2
Mobile Other
1.1
Mobile Web0.8
Mobile Video
0.1
GPS Navigation
0
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
65+ Live TV421min
Web19
Software 16
DVD or VCR11
Email11
Playback via DVR
7
GPS Navigation
4
Environmental/Other video
4
Mobile Talk
3
In-Cinema movie
2
IM0.3
Console games
0.3
Computer Video
0.2
Mobile Text0.06
Mobile Other0.05
Mobile Web
0
Mobile Video
0
55-64 Live TV346min
Web 42
Email38
Software 36
DVD or VCR14
Mobile Talk12
Playback via DVR
9
Environmental/Other video
4
GPS Navigation
4
In-Cinema movie
3
Mobile Web1.3
Computer Video
1.2
Console games
1.2
Mobile Text0.4
Mobile Other
0.2
IM0
Mobile Video
0
45-54 Live TV336min
Software 52
Email51
Web 46
DVD or VCR21
Playback via DVR
19
Mobile Talk18
IM15
Environmental/Other video
5
Console games
3
GPS Navigation
3
Computer Video
2
Mobile Text1.3
Mobile Web0.7
In-Cinema movie
0.6
Mobile Other
0.5
Mobile Video0.13
35-44 Live TV230min
Web 74
Software 62
Email47
DVD or VCR27
Mobile Talk25
Playback via DVR
17
IM15
Console games
5
In-Cinema movie
3
Computer Video
3
Environmental/Other video
3
Mobile Text
2
Mobile Other
0.6
Mobile Web0.6
GPS Navigation
0.3
Mobile Video0.06
25-34 Live TV256min
Web 56
Software 51
Email45
DVD or VCR35
Mobile Talk19
Playback via DVR
16
Console games
14
Environmental/Other video
5
Computer Video
4
IM3
Mobile Web
2
Mobile Text
2
In-Cinema movie
2
GPS Navigation
1.2
Mobile Other
0.6
Mobile Video0.02
18-24 Live TV210min
Web67
Software62
DVD or VCR34
Mobile Talk29
Console games
26
Email20
Playback via DVR
17
IM15
Mobile Text12
Environmental/Other video
9
Computer Video
6
In-Cinema movie
1.2
Mobile Other
1.1
Mobile Web0.8
Mobile Video
0.1
GPS Navigation
0
Number of Touchpoints Used Driven by Age
Using a 10 minute average as a cut off
Those 18-24 are exposed to twice as many screen media 10+ mins as those 65+ (10 vs. 5); greater media diversity
The Council for Research Excellence@The Nielsen Company
How Social Networks Have Changed the Media Landscape
Evolution / EffectFindings from NeverEndingFriending Study
BROADCASTERS MYCASTERS
The Players: TV Networks, Online
Distribution Hubs, Movie Studios, Your next store
neighbor
The Other Media: TV (sending and receiving)
The Big Change: The Internet is not a
competitor, or a complementary outlet for
niche content; distribution is king, content does not
necessarily live on a site
The Players: MySpace, Facebook, Gawker, “News Site X,” Your next store
neighbor
The Other Media: Mobile (sending and receiving)
The Big Change: Social networking as a toolkit has gone mainstream (see Obama). Consumers are
building and Internet ecosystem around themselves
Online Landscape has Evolved
Social Networking is Growing.. (nearly ¾ of online users participate).
Source: Nielsen NetView age2+, * Home only
72% 70%
85%
68%
57%
75%75%
75%
52%
72% 72%
Social Networking: Viable Part of Media Mix• Agency planned spending is shifting gears
“2010 Media Planning Intelligence Study; ”Center of Media Research/Insight Express September 2009
Ad Spending Expected to Increase
• In 2011 ad spending on US social networking sites will increase to $1.4 billion
Source: eMarketer, June 2009
The Social Network PlatformSelf-Expression Discovery Interaction
Personal Profile, Video, Blogs, Music, Photos
Skin, Badges, Widgets, Wallpapers, Ringtones, Contests, Viral Video, New Features
Profiles, Groups, Forums Channels, Events, Jobs, Wikis
Custom Communities, Video, Entertainment Content, Events, Cause Marketing
IM, Bulletins, Comments, Blogs, Events, Friending
Contests, Quizzes, Viral Content, Friending, Polls, Widgets, Twitter
Source: Never Ending Friending April 2007Base: SN 14-20 (n=2605)
17%Check out social networking sites
17% Talk on your cell phone
14% Watch TV
10% Surf Web generally
9% Play video game
8% IM
7% Listen to MP3 player
1% Listen to radio
147 Million US users
visited a social networking site*
71 Million (83%)Age 12-34
Social Networking is Preferred Free-time Activity
Source: Never Ending Friending April 2007 Base: SN 14-20 (n=2605)
Source: ComScore Media Metrix, age2+, June 2009
Constant EngagementWhen they’re regularly on social network sites…
15% First thing in the morning16% Before school/work18% Lunch25% At school/work31% After school/work68% Evening30% Late night (10pm-4am)
Q: When are you regularly on your favorite social networking site? Base = SN users 14-40; n=2,605 Q: How much do you agree with each of these statements? Top 2 box (Completely Agree, Agree) Top 2 box agreement (3-pt scale) Base = SN users 14-40; n=2,605
Prime Time
Extending into their offline lives73% Never bored when using it66% So many things to do56% Add fun to going out48% Having more fun in life general47% More plugged into music scene46% More on top of trends, what’s new45% Makes my life more exciting40% Discovered brands/products really likeSource: Never Ending Friending April 2007
Base: SN 14-20 (n=2605)
Social “Networking” Can Crowd Out Traditional Behavior
Weekly hours spent…
Q: During the past week, approximately how many hours did you spend doing the following activities?Base = SN users 14-40; n=2,605 non-users 14-34; n=431
• Social media has migrated from the young to mainstream• Facebook hits 300 million users
September 09, about the size of the US population
• Their fastest growing segment are people age 35+
• Social Networks seek ways to turn profitable• Facebook turns a profit in 3Q 09, earlier
than expected
What’s Changed in the Past Few Years
Source: Universal McCann, "Power to the People: Social Media Tracker Wave 4," July 30, 2009Source: Adage, CNN (9.16.09)
Social Networks Provide the Basis for “Earned Media”
Most talk is on diet/weight management websites(April 25 – June 25 09)
6
6
7
7
10
11
12
13
14
22
0 5 10 15 20 25
.babytalkzone.com
community.babycenter.com
anabolicminds.com/forum
answers.yahoo.com
goodeats.dyns.net
chowhound.chow.com
trekbbs.com
cheftalk.com/forums
Forum.bodybuilding.com
lowcarbfriends.com
Low Carb Friends… a community where of people from around the world come to discuss all issues related to how to lose body fat and keep it off.
Bodybuilding forum…forum dedicated to bodybuilding, supplements, muscle building, nutrition, bodybuilding training, workouts, fat loss, and total fitness.
Cheftalk.com…Food and Cooking discussion for the professional and the at home cook.
Trek BBS… is the number 1 place to chat about Star Trek and theupcoming movie, with like-minded fans.
Chowhound.chow.com…devoted to the pleasure of food and drink.Features information about meals and gear and delivers it in audio, and video.
Goodeats.dyns.net…has a lot to offer in educating the masses about cooking, history and science.
Anabolicminds… is dedicated to the discussion of bodybuilding,supplements, nutrition, fat loss, weight loss and overall fitness.
Yahoo! Answers… is a new way to find and share information. You can ask questions on any topic, get answers from real people, and share insights.
Babytalkzone… friendly community support forum for those who are pregnant, trying to conceive, or adopting.
BabyCenter community…Groups for Moms and dads to share the experience of pregnancy and parenthood with photos, answers, and blogs on the largest parenting site.
• And Provide New Opportunities for Research: Substitute for Focus Groups?
Navigating the Complex Media Landscape
Bought Owned Earned
bought earnedowned
ATLANTA BOSTON CHICAGO DALLAS LOS ANGELES NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO
earnedbought owned
Time Spent Exponentially
Increases
Time spent with BOE media is proportional to consumer interest (or concern)
videoprintaudiosearch
experientialoutdoorin-store
POSpackagingwebsites
applicationsservices
blogsfan pages
WoMsocial chatter
pressorganic search
viral
Bought
EarnedOwned
Plan
Active presence Talking to consumers Hooking attention Right time, place, mindset Opening conversations
Engaging Experiences Talking with consumers Accessible and useful content assets Enabling participation Creating conversations
Being talked about by consumers Listening to conversations Feeding conversations
BOE Reflects Consumer Centricity and Media Fluidity • Roles played allow for understanding rapid change and acting promptly
Allocating the Media Budget in the New Environment: Still Focus on the Consumer
28
Creating Classic Segments with Digital Implications
Segment 1: “Healthy & Financially Fit”(more digitally savvy) Size of opportunity: 938,000 Hispanics
Segment 2:“Sedentary Indulgers”Size of opportunity: 1,662,000 Hispanics (more into TV/audio)
• Using segmentation techniques, identified two Hispanic segments that are mutually exclusive:
Ingredients Include Quali-Quant Inputs
Qualitative inputQualitative input
Quantitative inputQuantitative input
Weight of variablesWeight of variables
AnalysisAnalysis
OutputOutput
• Bridging technology with “human” expertise…
Judgments Made at Granular Levels
• Human Factors research has shown that the average person can handle only five to nine decision factors at a time.
• This is where tools such as Allocator come into play
Allocating the Media Touchpoints
Plumbing/Interiors Company
Start with Clear Objectives• Increase sales by 6% in the US
• Increase awareness by 10 points (from 58% to 68%)
• Link the brand to water conservation
Drive intent & conversion
Be BOLD
Associate & build meaning
Deliver the BOLD message in areas where we standout
Focus activity where consumers are looking for INSPIRATION & GUIDANCE
Develop programs that add value to the consumer & society
Plumbing/Interiors Company
Utilize Learning from Optimized Media Mix
Consideration – 17.5/20
Awareness – 16/20 Brand – 15/20
Consumer – 15/20
Media Metrics – 13/20Step 1: Objective settingIdentify & weight media channels by consumer receptivity metrics
CY09 Recommended allocation
• TV 52%
• Print 37%
• Trade 9%
• Social Media 3%
Step 2: Activity modelingMedia investment based on brand strategy
Home Improvement Store
Applying Media Neutral Tool with New Client….
2010 Recommended allocation
Video 2 screens 18%
Inserts/ROP 19%
Spot Radio 9%
Net Radio 14%
Cable TV 7%
Search 7%
Digital 6%
Spot TV 9%
Magazine 10%
Step 2: Activity modelingMedia investment based on brand strategy
AwarenessRelative Weight: 6/20
Step 1: Objective settingIdentify & weight media channels by consumer receptivity metrics
LoyaltyRelative Weight: 14/20
TrafficRelative Weight: 18/20
Current PlanUnconstrained Allocation
Allocator's recommendation
Spot Radio 8% 9%Net Radio 8% 14%Magazine 2% 10%Inserts/ROP 25% 19%Spot TV 4% 9%Net TV (+Synd) & Broadband 32% 18%Search 2% 7%Cable TV 11% 7%Digital 3% 6%
Home Improvement Store
…. Lead to a Very Different Recommended Mix
• With touchpoints and complexity exploding, tools required to address
• Current environment especially conducive to SN growth• To organize the complexity, we’ve found that
Bought/Owned/Earned (BOE) is a useful nomenclature• Scraping conversations beneficial way to monitor/evaluate
Earned portion and provide feedback loop for Bought/ Owned• Allocation needs to be based on plan objectives• Many media combinations have never been run, or only
rarely….new era of Testing required to fully evaluate
Summary