amanda graning amy henry mike bettwy carol christenson dan miller dean melde peter parke edward...
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Amanda GraningAmy HenryMike BettwyCarol ChristensonDan MillerDean MeldePeter ParkeEdward FlenzGreg FrosigTom LonkaKevin DonofrioDeclan Cannon
WFO Duluth, Minnesota
Example of a Collaborative Office Project
Vision: "Keeping America SAFER by understanding and integrating societal impacts into NWS products and services; to enhance public awareness and readiness associated with weather, water, and climate."
Societal Applications For Enhanced Readiness
My office is full of deadbeats
Assessing the Threat of Winter Events
I have a few
ideas, but…
Couldn’t get off ground
No one was interested
…stuck in
their ways
How do I
get people
motivated?
Why was this successful??
Disclaimers• Not Perfect • Not a Human Behavior Expert• Personal Experiences
Assessing the Threat of Winter Events
Weather Forecasting Office Duluth, MN
There are situations where the physical science can be perfect, but its utility is greatly reduced where there is not adequate attention to the societal aspects
Motivation
An effort to create a historical reference for use in assessing the threat of snowfall cases that may or may not fall into the National Weather Service (NWS) defined criteria for winter weather advisories or warnings
Goal
Danger Degree Project
Develop a "checklist" of factors that are given values Weather and non-weather
Values are added to result in a Danger Degree (threat
level) for that event
Theory: Higher the score, greater the potential impact
Danger Degree Project
Specific Location Duluth, MN International Falls, MN
Event Criteria Snowfall of >2” Looked at Daily Climate Report
(LCDs)
Weather & Societal Factors METARs
Sum Each Section
The Checklist WFO Duluth, MN
The Checklist High Travel Periods
MEA Weekend Start Tribune,. Bob Von Sternberg“At Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, this long weekend [ MEA ] is as busy, or busier, than Thanksgiving”
HS State Tournament Data MN State High School League
2006 October 11-13thDLH
3
2
6
5
14
First >2 of winter
SN began 400 am
Mixed Phases
Gusts 30-35 kt for 24 hrs
Began: 36 F & Rain
SN ended for 4 hrs - then continued.
Snow Total = 3.5” 2.3” in 24 hr period.
Danger Degree Project
Disclaimers
Caution! Assigning Values to EventNot Intended to Categorize Storms (like Hurricanes)
A Tool for Addition Perspective
May miss “Big Picture”
Adapted to other Areas & Hazards
91%
60%
Danger Degree Project
Danger Degree Project
Warning Events
Danger Degree Project
Advisory Events
Danger Degree Project
No Headline
Danger Degree Project
What was the Impact?
Several Warnings with Danger Degree Values < 5 Low potential Impact
Events with Danger Degree > 14 with No Headline High Potential Impact
All Starts with an Idea
Keys to Engaging OthersEmailed the Staff
Keys to Engaging Others
Voluntary
Engaging Others
Clear Vision
Engaging Others
Flexible
Engaging Others
Trust
CommunicationFlexibleSeveral MeetingsClear ExpectationsUpdatesIntranet page
Project Leader
"There's nothing more demoralizing than a leader who can't clearly articulate why we're doing what we're doing.“ --James Kouzes and Barry Posner
Amanda GraningAmy HenryMike BettwyCarol ChristensonDan MillerDean MeldePeter ParkeEd FlenzGreg FrosigTom LonkaKevin DonofrioDeclan Cannon
Know Your People
