american wind energy association presentation by: randall swisher, executive director american wind...

American Wind Energy Association

Presentation by: Randall Swisher, Executive Director


Wind Market Overview COG Renewable Energy SeminarJune 22, 2005



• The National Trade Association representing the Wind Industry in the U.S.– Over 700 Business Members, including:

• Turbine Manufacturers• Component Suppliers • Project Developers• Electric Utilities• Lawyers, Consultants, Investors, etc.


Benefits of Renewables• Economic

Development• Energy Cost Stability• Resource Diversity &

Conservation• Environmental


Renewable Technologies Aren’t All the Same

•Applications are Different•Economics are Different•Market Barriers are Different


Turbines: Different Sizes and ApplicationsSmall (10 kW)• Homes (Grid-connected)• Farms• Remote Applications

(e.g. battery changing, water pumping, telecom sites)

Intermediate

(10-500 kW)• Village Power• Hybrid Systems• Distributed Power

Large (500 kW – 5 MW)

• Central Station Wind Farms

• Distributed Power• Offshore Wind


Different Types of Wind Power: Large

Single LargeTurbine Wind Farm Danish Offshore Wind Farm

Utility Power Plants

Vermont Wind Farm

American Wind Energy AssociationDifferent Types of Wind Power: Small

Water Pumper Customer-Owned Small Generator

Small Turbines Serve Individual Customers

American Wind Energy AssociationDifferent Types of Wind PowerIndividual Large Turbines for Municipal Needs

Spirit Lake Schools, Iowa Traverse City, Mich. Utility


Wind Power Isn’t Perfect• Wind Power output varies over time• Wind Power can only meet part of your

load• Wind Power is location-dependent• Wind Power is transmission-dependent • Wind Power has environmental impacts

. . . But Wind Power has a Great Future!

American Wind Energy AssociationWind Is Growing Worldwide

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Rest of World

Europe

United States

Source: AWEA’s Global Market Report

1. Germany: 16,629 MW

2. Spain: 8,263 MW

3. United States: 6,740 MW

4. Denmark: 3,117 MW

5. India: 3,000 MW

Global Wind Capacity More Than Tripled in Last Five Years

Global Cumulative Total Over 47,300 MW by end of 2004


Wind Has Hit Sustained Takeoff in the U.S.

• 2005 will be a record year – about 2,500 MW• 6,740 MW now installed• Market fundamentals are strong

– Wind’s Competitive Posture Strong and Improving• No Longer “Alternative Energy”

– Growing Interest Within Financial Community– U.S. Should be World’s Largest Wind Market Over Next

Decade

• Consistent policy is key current constraint


U.S. Annual Capacity Additions

172

366442

21616759

13417374

5 6 41 42 10 11

233

661

53

410 389

2500

1696 1687

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Years

MW

MW Installed

Inconsistent Policy Yields an “Up and Down” Market


Driving Forces Behind Wind’s Growth in

U.S.• Wind’s Steadily

Improving Economics• State Policy• Gas Price Volatility• Utility Experience and

Perspective• Environmental Issues


• 19 state standards• Technology, vintage,

credit trading, sunset, location eligibility requirements differ

WI: 2.2% by 2011

IA: 2% by 1999

MN: 19% by 2015

NV: 15% by 2013

TX: 2.7% by 2009

PA: 8% by 2020

NJ: 6.5% by 2012

CT: 10% by 2010

MA: 4% by 2009

ME: 30% by 2000

NM: 10% by 2011

AZ: 1.1% by 2007, 60% solar

Renewable Energy Standards

CA: 20% by 2017

NY: 25% by 2013

MD: 7.5% by 2014

RI: 16% by 2019

HI: 20% by 2020

CO: 10% by 2015

MT: 15% by 2015


Wind Insures Against Fuel Price Risk

• Platts “conservatively estimates that generating electricity from renewable sources can ultimately save consumers more than $5/MWh by eliminating fuel price risk”*

*4/8/03 announcement re “Power Price Stability: What’s it Worth?”

Great River Energy


Different Ways to Buy Renewable Energy

• Rate Based as Part of Utility Portfolio• Green Pricing

– No competition, monopoly utility offers customers choice of supporting wind power construction.

• Green Marketing– In competitive market, customers empowered to

choose service providers that contract to purchase renewables

• Green Tags– Environmental attributes divorced from energy


Wind Energy is the Star of the Green Market!

• Environmental Benefit• Cost-Competitive• Popular• Visual Appeal• Hydro and Gas

Resources Complementary

Represents 93.8%* of Green Power in the U.S.

*Source: NREL, Sept. 2004


Benefits of Wind: Environmental

• Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions 30,000 MW of wind energy in U.S. = 100 MMT/year cut in CO2 emissions

• Reduced Air Pollution 30,000 MW of wind energy in U.S. = 250,000 tons/year cut in NOx emissions

• Reduced Water Pollution U.S. wind capacity at 30,000 MW = reduced mercury emissions and

healthier water for all Americans


What is Wind’s Market Potential?

• At least 20,000 MW total installed by 2010 in U.S.

• 6% of electricity supply by 2020

= 100,000 MW of wind power installed by 2020

= a $150 billion market!


What are the Barriers to a $150 Billion U.S. Wind Market?

• Inconsistent Policy• Transmission

constraints• Electric Industry

Operational Rules• Siting


Wind Development in the Mid-Atlantic

• Siting often challenging• Projects often smaller• Wind speeds lower than

Great Plains• Green Market Important


Mid-Atlantic Wind Issues:Regional Collaboration is Essential

• A Working Green Market in PJM Region– Implement a certificates-based energy tracking system – Green Power Standard Offer Service

• Coherent Regional Policy– Regional RPS – Regional CO2 cap & trade

• Clean Air credits/allowances for renewables• Transmission expansion and rules• Thanks for leadership


Contact AWEA

[email protected] write toAmerican Wind Energy Association1101 14th Street NW, 12th FloorWashington, DC 20005

american wind energy association presentation by: randall swisher, executive director american wind...

Documents

wind industry

time wind power

load wind power

locationdependent wind

mw global wind capacity

worlds largest wind

different slide

market slide