america’s electricity generation capacity

America’s ElectricityGeneration Capacity

2015 Update

NATURALGAS

NUCLEARHYDRO

OTHER

WIND

COAL

SOLAR

GENERATION CAPACITY 2020

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America’s ElectricityGeneration Capacity2015 Update

Prepared byPaul Zummo, Manager, Policy Research and AnalysisAmerican Public Power Association

Published April 2015

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Section 1Current Generation Capacity ....................................... 1

Section 2Future Generating Capacity: Fuel Mix .......................... 6

Section 3Future Generating Capacity: Development Stages ....... 9

Section 4Future Generating Capacity: Regional Mix ................. 14

Section 5Future Generating Capacity: Ownership Type ............ 19

Section 6Generating Capacity: Retirements and Cancellations .................................. 21

Section 7Conclusion ................................................................ 30

Appendix 1Regions ..................................................................... 31

Appendix 2Regional Fuel Mix ...................................................... 32

Executive Summary

The American Public Power Association presents the ninth annual report on current and imminent electricity generation capacity in America by types of fuel, location, and ownership type.

Currently, America has just over 1.1 million megawatts of generation capacity.

The largest fuel source is natural gas, accounting for nearly 42 percent of all generation capacity. Coal, with a share of nearly 28 percent of capacity, is the second largest generation source. Nuclear, hydro, and wind together account for 23 percent of capacity. Solar currently constitutes less than one percent of all capacity.

This report analyzes prospective generation capacity in four categories — under construction, permitted, application pending, and proposed.

Nearly 372,000 MW of new generation capacity is under development in the United States — 92,000 MW under construction or permitted, and just under 280,000 MW proposed or pending application.

Natural gas will continue to be the top fuel source in the near and distant future, followed by wind. A growing amount of generating capacity is expected to be fueled by solar. In fact, solar constitutes just over 10 percent of all capacity for plants under construction and that have permits to start building.

While the Southeast has the most generation currently, with 25 percent of the nation’s total capacity, the Western region is slated to add the most generation, projecting more than 144,000 MW new capacity.

This report also provides information on retirements and planned retirements, cancellations, and capacity that has been added over the past eight years.

The report approximates what the U.S. capacity mix will look like by the end of 2020. Natural gas will continue to be the leading resource.

While the overall capacity mix in the United States will change, it will do so at a gradual pace. Coal and other traditional forms of electric generation are being displaced by wind, solar, and other forms of renewable generation. Environmental regulations as well as the speed at which certain resources can be developed might spur more significant changes. However, the overall fuel mix five years from now will not be dramatically different from the current mix.

Source: Data analyzed for this report was taken from the Ventyx Velocity Suite database, accessed January 2015.

Natural Gas41.88%

Coal27.81%

Other 6.33%

Nuclear9.21%

Hydro8.42%

Wind 5.44%

Solar 0.91%

2015 Generation Capacity

2020 Potential Generation Capacity

Natural Gas43.04%

Coal24.27%

Nuclear9.35%

Hydro8.15%

Other 6.08%

Solar 1.66%

Wind 7.45%

America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 1

Section 1Current Generation Capacity

TABLE 1.1 shows the sources from which electricity is currently generated in America. Current nameplate capacity includes capacity labeled as standby, but not mothballed or out of service.

TABLE 1.1

2015 Current Electricity Generation Capacity, by Fuel Type

Primary Fuel Type Current Nameplate Capacity (MW) ShareNatural Gas .................................... 489,327.93 ...............41.88%Coal ............................................... 324,908.24 ...............27.81%Nuclear .......................................... 107,548.64 .................9.21%Hydro ............................................... 98,381.72 .................8.42%Wind ................................................ 63,588.62 .................5.44%Distillate Fuel Oil ............................... 25,030.22 .................2.14%Residual Fuel Oil ............................... 18,401.80 .................1.58%Solar ................................................ 10,595.40 .................0.91%Wood ................................................. 4,988.27 .................0.43%Wood Waste Liquids ............................ 4,790.95 .................0.41%Geothermal ........................................ 3,869.45 .................0.33%Petroleum Coke ................................. 2,774.20 .................0.24%Waste ................................................ 2,697.75 .................0.23%Landfill Gas ........................................ 2,561.60 .................0.22%Kerosene ............................................ 2,185.70 .................0.19%Other Gas ........................................... 2,042.80 .................0.17%Waste Heat ......................................... 1,131.11 .................0.10%Blast Furnace Gas .................................. 929.60 .................0.08%Jet Fuel Oil ............................................ 537.94 .................0.05%Purchased Steam ................................... 419.40 .................0.04%Agricultural Byproduct ............................ 392.50 .................0.03%Other .................................................... 383.24 .................0.03%Biomass Gas ......................................... 354.51 .................0.03%Biomass Solid ........................................ 220.86 .................0.02%Biomass Liquid ...................................... 126.69 .................0.01%Oil Other ................................................ 119.91 .................0.01%Biomass Other ........................................... 5.96 .................0.00%Multi-fuel................................................... 4.00 .................0.00%Propane .................................................... 1.63 .................0.00%

Total 1,168,320.63 100.00%

Natural Gas41.88%

Coal27.81%

Other 6.33%

Nuclear9.21%

Hydro8.42%

Wind 5.44%

Solar 0.91%


TABLE 1.2 shows how America’s current generation capacity is distributed through the various regions defined by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

TABLE 1.2

2015 Current Electricity Generation Capacity, by Region

Region* Nameplate Capacity (MW) ShareSERC ............................................. 300,748.59 .................25.7%RFC................................................ 248,602.41 .................21.3%WECC ............................................ 224,848.06 .................19.2%ERCOT ........................................... 101,404.30 ...................8.7%NPCC ............................................... 82,326.60 ...................7.0%SPP.................................................. 72,112.04 ...................6.2%MRO ................................................ 66,759.84 ...................5.7%FRCC ............................................... 65,696.33 ...................5.6%HCC ................................................... 2,923.05 ...................0.3%ASCC ................................................. 2,899.41 ...................0.2%

Total 1,168,320.63 100.0%

* Regions Defined by NERC

ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating Council (not shown on map)

FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating CouncilHCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council (not shown on map)NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council MRO: Midwest Reliability OrganizationRFC: Reliability First Corporation SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability CouncilSPP: Southwest Power PoolTRE: Texas Reliability Entity WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating Council


As seen in TABLE 1.3, over 177,000 MW of current generation capacity was added between 2008 and 2014. Nearly three-quarters of this new capacity is fueled by natural gas or wind, with another 12 percent coming from coal.

TABLE 1.3

Generation Capacity Additions, 2008 – 2014

Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share Capacity (MW) Natural Gas ...................................... 74,874.56 ..................42.2%Wind ................................................ 56,641.15 ..................31.9%Coal ................................................. 20,557.70 ..................11.6%Solar ................................................ 11,087.53 ....................6.2%Hydro ................................................. 5,962.82 ....................3.4%Wood ................................................. 1,420.47 ....................0.8%Landfill Gas ........................................ 1,136.34 ....................0.6%Petroleum Coke .................................. 1,048.20 ....................0.6%Other Gas ........................................... 1,020.10 ....................0.6%Geothermal ............................................ 787.29 ....................0.4%Distillate Fuel Oil .................................... 753.22 ....................0.4%Waste Heat ............................................ 501.29 ....................0.3%Wood Waste Liquid ................................ 478.30 ....................0.3%Kerosene ............................................... 440.00 ....................0.2%Blast Furnace Gas .................................. 171.00 ....................0.1%Biomass Gas ......................................... 165.67 ....................0.1%Biomass Solid ........................................ 124.98 ....................0.1%Biomass Liquid ...................................... 124.09 ....................0.1%Residual Fuel Oil ...................................... 42.00 ....................0.0%Waste ................................................... 36.10 ....................0.0%Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 23.02 ....................0.0%Other .................................................... 10.70 ....................0.0%Biomass Other ......................................... 10.56 ....................0.0%Other Oil .................................................... 9.20 ....................0.0%Jet Fuel .................................................... 5.20 ....................0.0%Propane .................................................... 1.63 ....................0.0%Purchased Steam ....................................... 1.00 ....................0.0%

Total 177,434.11

Natural Gas42.2%

Coal11.6%

Other 4.7%

Hydro3.4%

Wind 31.9%

Solar 6.2%


TABLE 1.4 shows that in 2014 alone, over 17,000 MW of generation began operating, with natural gas, wind, and solar accounting for 83 percent of the new capacity.

TABLE 1.4

Generation Capacity Additions, 2014

Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share Capacity (MW) Natural Gas ........................................ 6,651.87 ..................38.2%Wind .................................................. 4,932.94 ..................28.4%Solar .................................................. 2,865.74 ..................16.5%Hydro ................................................. 1,397.00 ....................8.0%Other Gas .............................................. 839.80 ....................4.8%Coal ...................................................... 266.20 ....................1.5%Wood .................................................... 111.50 ....................0.6%Landfill Gas ............................................. 92.61 ....................0.5%Geothermal .............................................. 84.50 ....................0.5%Wood Waste Liquids ................................. 80.60 ....................0.5%Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 48.05 ....................0.3%Biomass Gas ........................................... 10.15 ....................0.1%Other ...................................................... 6.50 ....................0.0%Waste Heat ................................................ 5.00 ....................0.0%Biomass Other ........................................... 2.80 ....................0.0%Biomass Solid ............................................ 1.30 ....................0.0%Purchased Steam ....................................... 1.00 ....................0.0%

Total 17,397.57 100.0%

Natural Gas38.2%

Coal1.5%

Other 7.4%

Hydro8%

Wind 28.4%

Solar 16.5%


FIGURE 1.1 shows capacity additions between 2008 and 2014, with the fuel mix installed. With the exception of 2012, natural gas has been the leading fuel source added each year, and often by a fairly wide margin. Of note is the growth in solar capacity added —from 80 MW in 2008 to 2,866 MW in 2014.

FIGURE 1.1

New Generation Installed, 2008-2014

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MW

Cap

acity

New Generation Installed, 2008-2014

Other

Hydro

Solar

Coal

Wind

Natural Gas


TABLE 2.1

Plants Under Construction, Fuel Type

Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) ShareNatural Gas ...................................... 18,741.69 ..................43.0%Wind ................................................ 14,685.70 ..................33.7%Nuclear .............................................. 5,737.90 ..................13.2%Solar .................................................. 2,847.65 ....................6.5%Hydro .................................................... 428.68 ....................1.0%Coal ...................................................... 320.00 ....................0.7%Waste ................................................... 278.20 ....................0.6%Other ................................................. 105.00 ....................0.2%Wood ...................................................... 88.56 ....................0.2%Biomass Solid .......................................... 77.50 ....................0.2%Wood Waste Liquids ................................. 62.00 ....................0.1%Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 37.50 ....................0.1%Waste Heat .............................................. 37.23 ....................0.1%Landfill Gas ............................................. 33.30 ....................0.1%Geothermal .............................................. 30.18 ....................0.1%Other Gas ................................................ 17.00 ....................0.0%Refuse .................................................... 15.79 ....................0.0%Biomass Gas ............................................. 5.60 ....................0.0%Biomass Other ........................................... 1.60 ....................0.0%

Total 43,551.06 100.0%

Section 2Future Generating Capacity: Fuel Mix

Tables 2.1 – 2.4 show the fuel makeup of America’s future generation capacity.

TABLE 2.1 shows the sources for the 43,551 MW of generation capacity under construction. Natural gas and wind account for over three-quarters of the capac-ity under construction. Three major nuclear operations in the Southeast account for all nuclear capacity under construction.

Natural Gas43%

Coal0.7%

Other 1.9%

Hydro1%

Wind 33.7%

Solar 6.5%

Nuclear13.2%


TABLE 2.2 shows the fuel makeup for plants that have received permits to construct 48,551 MW of capacity overall but that have not yet started construction. Natural gas is the leading resource choice for permitted plants, accounting for over half of the new capacity. Wind is second and accounts for nearly a quarter of potential capacity.

TABLE 2.2

Permitted Plants, Fuel Type

Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) ShareNatural Gas ...................................... 25,024.50 ..................51.5%Wind ................................................ 11,901.28 ..................24.5%Solar .................................................. 6,517.65 ..................13.4%Coal ................................................... 2,855.00 ....................5.9%Geothermal ............................................ 740.90 ....................1.5%Other .................................................... 587.00 ....................1.2%Hydro .................................................... 477.74 ....................1.0%Wood .................................................... 298.90 ....................0.6%Biomass Gas ........................................... 50.00 ....................0.1%Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 49.90 ....................0.1%Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 26.00 ....................0.1%Waste ..................................................... 12.00 ....................0.0%Landfill Gas ............................................. 10.31 ....................0.0%

Total 48,551.18 100.0%

TABLE 2.3

Pending Application Plants, Fuel Type

Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) ShareNatural Gas ...................................... 32,246.37 ..................40.5%Solar ................................................ 15,269.13 ..................19.2%Nuclear ............................................ 12,516.00 ..................15.7%Wind ................................................ 11,067.91 ..................13.9%Hydro ................................................. 5,923.00 ....................7.4%Coal ................................................... 1,417.00 ....................1.8%Geothermal ............................................ 408.00 ....................0.5%Waste Heat ............................................ 361.00 ....................0.5%Wood .................................................... 194.30 ....................0.2%Waste ..................................................... 69.80 ....................0.1%Liquefied Natural Gas ............................... 50.63 ....................0.1%Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 50.00 ....................0.1%Landfill Gas ............................................. 33.33 ....................0.0%Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 11.00 ....................0.0%Biomass Solid ............................................ 5.00 ....................0.0%

Total 79,622.47 100.0%

TABLE 2.3 shows the fuel mix for the 79,622 MW of capacity awaiting approval of applications. Natural gas is the leading resource choice, accounting for over 40 percent of the capacity. Solar is second, accounting for 19 percent of the capacity.


TABLE 2.4

Proposed Plants, Fuel Type

Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) ShareWind ................................................ 65,986.98 ..................32.9%Natural Gas ...................................... 44,194.86 ..................22.1%Hydro ............................................... 33,919.32 ..................16.9%Solar ................................................ 30,292.19 ..................15.1%Nuclear ............................................ 15,955.00 ....................8.0%Coal ................................................... 4,545.00 ....................2.3%Geothermal ......................................... 1,834.70 ....................0.9%Wood ................................................. 1,019.48 ....................0.5%Residual Fuel Oil .................................... 632.40 ....................0.3%Blast Furnace Gas .................................. 600.00 ....................0.3%Other .................................................... 338.59 ....................0.2%Waste ................................................... 282.80 ....................0.1%Landfill Gas ........................................... 163.14 ....................0.1%Biomass Solid ........................................ 128.63 ....................0.1%Waste Heat ............................................ 120.00 ....................0.1%Biomass Gas ........................................... 63.92 ....................0.0%Jet Fuel ................................................... 60.00 ....................0.0%Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 53.95 ....................0.0%Biomass Other ......................................... 53.60 ....................0.0%Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 19.44 ....................0.0%Biomass Liquid .......................................... 9.00 ....................0.0%

Total 200,272.98 100.0%

TABLE 2.4 shows the resource mix for the 200,273 MW of capacity still in the planning stages. This is the earliest and most uncertain stage of development, and includes units that are least likely to be built. Wind power accounts for approximately one-third of planned capacity with natural gas, hydro, and solar accounting for the bulk of the remaining capacity.

Natural Gas22.1%

Coal2.3%

Other 2.7%

Nuclear8%

Hydro16.9%

Wind 32.9%

Solar 15.1%


FIGURE 3.1 tracks the major fuel sources in each stage of development. Natural gas is the dominant fuel choice in the first three stages — under construction, permitted, and pending application. Wind becomes dominant in the proposed capacity stage. Figure 1 also shows that the resource mix is more balanced in the earlier stages of development.

Section 3Future Generating Capacity: Development Stages

FIGURE 3.1

Share of Fuel Type: Stage of Development, 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Under Construc5on Permi9ed Pending Applica5on Proposed

Percen

t Sha

re

Share of Fuel Type: Stage of Development, 2015

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Wind

Hydro

Solar

Other


FIGURES 3.2 – 3.5 demonstrate how the fuel mix outlook has changed from 2007 to 2015.

FIGURE 3.2

Share of Fuel Type: Plants Under Construction, 2007-2015

FIGURE 3.2 shows the capacity under construction. The most notable development is the steep decline in coal under construction — from over 40 percent in 2009 to just above 1 percent in 2014. Wind capacity under construction has increased from 12 percent in 2007 to over 34 percent in 2015. Natural gas has been by far the most popular resource in the under construction category from 2007 to 2015.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Perc

ent S

hare

Figure 3.2Share of Fuel Type: Plants Under Construction,

2007-2015Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Wind

Hydro

Solar

Other


FIGURE 3.3

Share of Fuel Type: Permitted Plants, 2007-2015

FIGURES 3.3 – 3.4 track fuel types in the permitted and pending application categories, which show some major fluctuations in the first few years and then become relatively steady. Coal has declined precipitously — from 50 percent to 6 percent in the permitted category, and from 48 percent to 2 percent in the application pending category.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Perc

ent S

hare

Figure 3.3Share of Fuel Type: Permitted Plants, 2007-2015

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Wind

Hydro

Solar

Other


FIGURE 3.4

Share of Fuel Type: Application Pending, 2007-2015

As seen in FIGURE 3.4, the fuel mix in the application pending category varies most widely, with different fuels like wind, solar, and nuclear emerging in recent years.


FIGURE 3.5

Share of Fuel Type: Proposed Plants, 2007-2015

FIGURE 3.5 shows the steep decline in coal for proposed plants, paralleled by the growth in wind, solar, and natural gas.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Perc

ent S

hare

Figure 3.5Share of Fuel Type: Proposed Plants, 2007-2015

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Wind

Hydro

Solar

Other


TABLE 4.1 shows that four regions account for roughly three-quarters of the capacity under construction.

TABLE 4.1

Plants Under Construction, by Region

Region* Capacity (MW) ShareSERC ................................................. 9,046.83 ..................20.8%RFC.................................................... 8,049.93 ..................18.5%WECC ................................................ 7,786.19 ..................17.9%ERCOT ............................................... 7,236.29 ..................16.6%SPP.................................................... 4,348.25 ..................10.0%MRO .................................................. 3,748.10 ....................8.6%FRCC ................................................. 2,591.03 ....................5.9%ASCC .................................................... 333.50 ....................0.8%NPCC .................................................... 329.80 ....................0.8%HCC ........................................................ 81.14 ....................0.2%

Total 43,551.06 100.0%

Section 4Future Generating Capacity: Regional Mix

TABLES 4.1 – 4.4 show where the new plants are being built or planned for construction by North American Electric Reliability Corporation regions. (See Appendix 1 for definition of regions and included states and Appendix 2 for the fuel mix for each region.)



FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating CouncilHCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council

(not shown on map)NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council MRO: Midwest Reliability OrganizationRFC: Reliability First Corporation SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability

CouncilSPP: Southwest Power PoolTRE: Texas Reliability Entity WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating

Council


TABLE 4.2 shows that the Western Electricity Coordinat-ing Council region has over 30 percent of the permitted capacity.

TABLE 4.2

Permitted Plants, by Region

Region* Capacity (MW) ShareWECC .............................................. 17,142.83 ..................35.3%ERCOT ............................................. 12,027.60 ..................24.8%RFC.................................................... 4,974.50 ..................10.2%SERC ................................................. 4,429.67 ....................9.1%NPCC ................................................. 4,368.97 ....................9.0%MRO .................................................. 2,549.40 ....................5.3%SPP.................................................... 2,093.80 ....................4.3%FRCC .................................................... 593.00 ....................1.2%ASCC .................................................... 339.70 ....................0.7%HCC ........................................................ 31.72 ....................0.1%

Total 48,551.19 100.0%






Council


TABLES 4.3 and 4.4 show plants in the pending application and proposed categories, in both of which WECC has far more potential capacity than any other region.

TABLE 4.3

Pending Application Plants, by Region

Region* Capacity (MW) ShareWECC .............................................. 34,329.53 ..................43.1%ERCOT ............................................. 17,377.22 ..................21.8%RFC.................................................. 12,415.60 ..................15.6%SERC ................................................. 6,856.88 ....................8.6%NPCC ................................................. 4,002.67 ....................5.0%FRCC ................................................. 3,060.00 ....................3.8%MRO .................................................. 1,052.04 ....................1.3%SPP....................................................... 261.80 ....................0.3%HCC ...................................................... 197.93 ....................0.2%ASCC ...................................................... 68.80 ....................0.1%

Total 79,622.47 100.0%

TABLE 4.4

Proposed Plants, by Region

Region* Capacity (MW) ShareWECC .............................................. 85,699.61 ..................42.8%RFC.................................................. 29,539.95 ..................14.7%SERC ............................................... 24,666.25 ..................12.3%MRO ................................................ 15,977.90 ....................8.0%ERCOT ............................................. 14,445.20 ....................7.2%SPP.................................................. 11,611.20 ....................5.8%NPCC ................................................. 8,893.43 ....................4.4%FRCC ................................................. 5,238.92 ....................2.6%ASCC ................................................. 3,505.04 ....................1.8%HCC ...................................................... 695.48 ....................0.3%

Total 200,272.98 100.0%






Council


TABLES 4.5 and 4.6 show the fuels of choice for proposed capacity by development stage.

As seen in TABLE 4.5, for plants most certain to be built — those already under construction or permitted — natural gas and wind account for over 76 percent of the capacity, with solar contributing another 10 percent.

Nearly half of the capacity under construction and permitted is in WECC and Electric Reliability Council of Texas regions, with another 28.7 percent in Reliability First Corporation and Southeastern Electric Reliability Council regions. Natural gas is the primary resource in the ERCOT and RFC regions as well as in the Florida Reliability Coordinating Council and Northeast Power Coordinating Council regions. In each of these four regions, natural gas accounts for at least two-thirds of future capacity.

There is a general increase in planned solar capacity. Just under 88 percent of solar capacity in the permitted and under construction stages is located in the WECC region. Four regions account for nearly 85 percent of new wind capacity — ERCOT and WECC as well as the Midwest Reliability Organization and Southwest Power Pool regions.

TABLE 4.5

Plants Under Construction and Permitted, by Fuel Type

Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) ShareNatural Gas ...................................... 43,766.19 ..................47.5%Wind ................................................ 26,586.98 ..................28.9%Solar .................................................. 9,365.29 ..................10.2%Nuclear .............................................. 5,737.90 ....................6.2%Coal ................................................... 3,175.00 ....................3.4%Hydro .................................................... 906.42 ....................1.0%Geothermal ............................................ 771.08 ....................0.8%Other .................................................... 692.00 ....................0.8%Wood .................................................... 387.46 ....................0.4%Waste ................................................... 290.20 ....................0.3%Biomass Solid .......................................... 77.50 ....................0.1%Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 63.50 ....................0.1%Wood Waste Liquids ................................. 62.00 ....................0.1%Biomass Gas ........................................... 55.60 ....................0.1%Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 49.90 ....................0.1%Landfill Gas ............................................. 43.61 ....................0.0%Waste Heat .............................................. 37.23 ....................0.0%Other Gas ................................................ 17.00 ....................0.0%Refuse .................................................... 15.79 ....................0.0%Biomass Other ........................................... 1.60 ....................0.0%

Total 92,102.24 100.0%

Natural Gas47.5%

Coal3.4%

Other 2.8%

Hydro1%

Wind 28.9%

Solar 10.2%

Nuclear6.2%


As seen in TABLE 4.6, for plants in the more distant future — those that are proposed or pending application — the fuel mix tends more toward wind and other renewable resources, compared to plants that are scheduled to come online in the near future. There is almost as much natural gas capacity as wind in these stages.

TABLE 4.6

Proposed and Application Pending Plants, by Fuel Type

Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) ShareWind ................................................ 77,054.89 ..................27.5%Natural Gas ...................................... 76,441.23 ..................27.3%Solar ................................................ 45,561.32 ..................16.3%Hydro ............................................... 39,842.31 ..................14.2%Nuclear ............................................ 28,471.00 ..................10.2%Coal ................................................... 5,962.00 ....................2.1%Geothermal ......................................... 2,242.70 ....................0.8%Wood ................................................. 1,213.78 ....................0.4%Residual Fuel Oil .................................... 632.40 ....................0.2%Blast Furnace Gas .................................. 600.00 ....................0.2%Waste Heat ............................................ 481.00 ....................0.2%Waste ................................................... 352.60 ....................0.1%Other .................................................... 338.59 ....................0.1%Landfill Gas ........................................... 196.47 ....................0.1%Biomass Solid ........................................ 133.63 ....................0.0%Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 64.95 ....................0.0%Biomass Gas ........................................... 63.92 ....................0.0%Agricultural Byproduct .............................. 63.14 ....................0.0%Jet Fuel ................................................... 60.00 ....................0.0%Biomass Other ......................................... 53.60 ....................0.0%Liquefied Natural Gas ............................... 50.63 ....................0.0%Biomass Liquid .......................................... 9.00 ....................0.0%

Total 279,889.15 100.0%

Wind is slated to account for twenty percent or more of new capacity in all but the Alaska and Florida regions and is the leading resource in four regions. Nearly 83 percent of the proposed or application pending solar capacity is locat-ed in WECC, a region that accounts for much of the future renewable capacity, and for nearly half of all capacity in the proposed and application pending stages. Other forms of renewable energy, particularly wood, waste, and waste heat, are more dispersed through the various regions.

Natural Gas27.3%

Coal2.1%

Other 2.4%

Hydro14.2%

Wind 27.5%

Solar 16.3%

Nuclear10.2%


Section 5Future Generating Capacity: Ownership Type

Analysis of future generation capacity by ownership is summarized in Tables 5.1 – 5.4.

TABLE 5.1 shows that for plants under construction, most of the capacity is owned by non-utility generators, while regulated utilities collectively account for over 40 percent of the capacity.

TABLE 5.1

Plants Under Construction, by Ownership

Utility Type Capacity (MW) ShareInvestor Owned ................................. 11,052.99 ..................25.4%Public Power ...................................... 4,597.56 ..................10.6%Federal ............................................... 1,290.40 ....................3.0%Co-op .................................................... 979.18 ....................2.2%Regulated Total .............................. 17,920.13 ..................41.1%Non-utility Generators ....................... 25,630.93 ..................58.9%

Total 43,551.06 100.0%

TABLE 5.2

Permitted Plants, by Ownership

Ownership Capacity (MW) ShareInvestor Owned .................................. 2,172.67 ...................4.5%Co-op ................................................. 1,915.00 ...................3.9%Public Power ...................................... 1,179.60 ...................2.4%Federal .................................................... 15.00 ...................0.0%Regulated Total ................................ 5,282.27 ..................10.9%Non-utility Generators ....................... 43,268.92 ..................89.1%

Total 48,551.19 100.0%

Public Power10.6%

Co-op 2.2%

Federal 3%

Non-utilityGenerators

58.9%

InvestorOwned25.4%

Public Power2.4%

Co-op 3.9%


89.1%

InvestorOwned4.5%


TABLE 5.3

Pending Application Plants, by Ownership

Ownership Capacity (MW) ShareInvestor Owned ................................... 9,368.13 .................14.1%Co-op ................................................. 2,148.47 ...................3.2%Public Power ...................................... 1,571.59 ...................2.4%Federal .................................................... 11.00 ...................0.0%Regulated Total .............................. 13,099.20 .................16.5%Non-utility Generators ....................... 66,523.28 .................83.5%

Total 79,622.47 100.0%

Of note in TABLE 5.4 is that for proposed plants, generation owned by public power has the largest share of capacity among utilities.

TABLES 5.2 – 5.4 show that non-utility generators account for significant capacity in the earlier stages of development.

TABLE 5.4

Proposed Plants, by Ownership

Ownership Capacity (MW) SharePublic Power .................................... 12,375.95 ...................6.2%Investor Owned ................................. 10,897.47 ...................5.4%Federal ............................................... 4,940.50 ...................2.5%Co-op ................................................. 2,869.67 ...................1.4%Regulated Total .............................. 31,083.59 .................15.5%Non-utility Generators ..................... 169,189.40 .................84.5%

Total 200,272.98 100.0%

Public Power6.2%

Co-op 1.4% Federal 2.5%


84.5%

Investor Owned5.4%

Public Power2.4%

Co-op 3.2%


83.5%

InvestorOwned14.1%


Section 6Generating Capacity: Retirements and Cancellations

TABLES 6.1 and 6.2 show generation capacity retire-ments by fuel type between 2008 and 2014, when just over 66,000 MW of capacity was retired. Over 77 per-cent of this retired capacity was natural gas or coal, and 14 percent was oil. More than 84 percent of the retired natural gas capacity used steam turbines.

TABLE 6.1

Retired Plants by Fuel Type, 2008-2014

Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) ShareCoal ................................................. 27,717.50 ..................41.6%Natural Gas ...................................... 23,487.80 ..................35.2%Residual Fuel Oil ................................. 6,308.10 ....................9.5%Nuclear .............................................. 3,781.47 ....................5.7%Distillate Fuel Oil ................................. 3,022.79 ....................4.5%Hydro .................................................... 938.25 ....................1.4%Petroleum Coke ..................................... 323.50 ....................0.5%Wood Waste Liquid ................................ 187.30 ....................0.3%Blast Furnace Gas .................................. 171.20 ....................0.3%Wood .................................................. 166.80 ....................0.3%Landfill Gas ........................................... 150.20 ....................0.2%Wind ..................................................... 133.60 ....................0.2%Other .................................................... 67.00 ....................0.1%Waste ..................................................... 44.70 ....................0.1%Geothermal .............................................. 40.20 ....................0.1%Other Gas ................................................ 37.50 ....................0.1%Purchased Steam ..................................... 37.00 ....................0.1%Jet Fuel ................................................... 17.40 ....................0.0%Biomass Liquid ........................................ 15.80 ....................0.0%Biomass Gas ............................................. 7.00 ....................0.0%Solar ......................................................... 3.50 ....................0.0%Other Oil .................................................... 3.00 ....................0.0%

Total 66,661.61 100.0%

Natural Gas35.2%

Coal41.6%

Nuclear5.7%

Hydro1.4%

Wind 0.2% Other

15.9%


TABLE 6.2

Retired Plants by Fuel Type, 2014

Primary Fuel Capacity (MW) ShareCoal ................................................... 4,509.60 .................61.4%Natural Gas ........................................ 1,534.30 .................20.9%Residual Fuel Oil .................................... 490.50 ...................6.7%Distillate Fuel Oil .................................... 254.95 ...................3.5%Hydro .................................................... 212.50 ...................2.9%Petroleum Coke ..................................... 184.00 ...................2.5%Wood Waste Liquids ................................. 88.70 ...................1.2%Wind ....................................................... 63.60 ...................0.9%Landfill Gas ............................................. 10.60 ...................0.1%Jet Fuel ..................................................... 1.20 ...................0.0%

Total 7,349.95 100.0%

More than 7,000 MW of capacity was retired in 2014 alone, of which coal accounted for over 60 percent.

Over 54,000 MW of current operating capacity is scheduled to retire by 2020, two-thirds of which is coal. Almost all planned natural gas retirements are powered by steam or gas combustion turbines.

TABLE 6.3 reflects planned retirements that have been publicly announced.

TABLE 6.3

Planned Retirements to 2020, by Fuel Type

Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) % Planned Retirement CapacityCoal ................................................. 35,419.20 .................65.1%Natural Gas ...................................... 13,987.30 .................25.7%Residual Fuel Oil ................................. 1,465.20 ...................2.7%Distillate Fuel Oil ................................. 1,240.70 ...................2.3%Hydro ................................................. 1,018.00 ...................1.9%Nuclear ................................................. 550.00 ...................1.0%Kerosene ............................................... 418.50 ...................0.8%Wind ..................................................... 279.35 ...................0.5%Landfill Gas ............................................. 22.30 ...................0.0%Biomass Gas ............................................. 3.50 ...................0.0%

Total 54,404.05 100.0%

s

Natural Gas25.7%

Coal65.1%

Other 5.8%Hydro

1.9%

Wind 0.5%

Nuclear1%


TABLE 6.4

Plant Cancellations, 2014 Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share Capacity (MW)Wind ................................................ 28,226.05 ..................54.0%Solar ................................................ 15,749.02 ..................30.1%Natural Gas ........................................ 3,404.77 ....................6.5%Hydro ................................................. 2,820.42 ....................5.4%Geothermal ............................................ 902.00 ....................1.7%Coal ...................................................... 478.50 ....................0.9%Waste ................................................... 262.80 ....................0.5%Wood .................................................... 242.60 ....................0.5%Landfill Gas ............................................. 81.44 ....................0.2%Biomass Gas ........................................... 49.00 ....................0.1%Other Gas ................................................ 10.00 ....................0.0%Biomass Solid ............................................ 8.60 ....................0.0%Distillate Fuel Oil ........................................ 2.98 ....................0.0%

Total 52,238.16 100.0%

More than 52,000 MW of planned capacity additions was canceled in 2014, nearly triple the amount of capacity added to the grid. Wind and solar constituted 84 percent of this canceled capacity.


TABLE 6.5

Plant Cancellations, 2008-2014

Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share Capacity (MW) Wind 124,583.27 33.0%Coal ................................................. 55,838.50 ..................14.8%Natural Gas ...................................... 54,026.96 ..................14.3%Hydro ............................................... 53,542.85 ..................14.2%Solar ................................................ 50,870.05 ..................13.5%Nuclear ............................................ 23,130.00 ....................6.1%Petroleum Coke .................................. 5,060.20 ....................1.3%Wood ................................................. 3,540.03 ....................0.9%Geothermal ......................................... 1,700.00 ....................0.4%Other Gas ........................................... 1,646.00 ....................0.4%Biomass Gas ...................................... 1,198.05 ....................0.3%Waste ................................................... 716.30 ....................0.2%Other .................................................. 681.20 ....................0.2%Biomass Gas ......................................... 469.60 ....................0.1%Landfill Gas ........................................... 327.52 ....................0.1%Agricultural Byproduct ............................ 280.32 ....................0.1%Waste Heat ............................................ 125.80 ....................0.0%Biomass Gas ........................................... 96.04 ....................0.0%Kerosene ................................................. 49.20 ....................0.0%Biomass Other ......................................... 30.00 ....................0.0%Distillate Fuel Oil ...................................... 21.98 ....................0.0%Wood Waste Liquids ................................... 3.80 ....................0.0%

Total 377,937.66 100.0%

Since 2008, nearly 378,000 MW of planned capacity additions were ultimately canceled, more than double the amount that was actually added. Wind represents one-third of this canceled capacity. Nearly equal shares of coal, natural gas, hydro, and solar were also canceled during this time.

Natural Gas14.3%Solar

13.5%

Coal14.8%

Other 4.1%

Hydro14.2%

Wind 33%

Nuclear6.1%


FIGURE 6.1 shows additions, cancellations, and retirements from 2008 to 2014. Natural gas is the only resource for which additions outnumber cancellations. For all other resources, far more capacity was cancelled than was added.

FIGURE 6.1

Additions, Cancellations, and Retirements, 2008-2014


continued on next page

Impending environmental regulations have made coal capacity especially vulnerable to retirements, with nearly 37 gigawatts of existing capacity likely to retire by 2020.1 Some states have much more coal capacity at risk than others. Table 6.6 shows current coal capacity and planned retirements and additions in each state.

In several states with large amounts of planned retirements, there is not a corresponding amount of capacity currently under construction or permitted. Conversely, several states have much more capacity under development than facing retirement.

TABLE 6.6 compares coal to planned natural gas, wind, and total capacity additions. While natural gas additions will equal or exceed coal retirements in many states, added wind capacity will make up for coal retirements in other states.

TABLE 6.6

Coal Retirements and Additions

State Total Current Coal Anounced Planned Planned Planned Total Planned Capacity Capacity Coal Coal Natural Gas Wind Capacity (MW) (MW) Retirements Additions Additions Additions Additions (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)

Alabama 34,408.63 11,797.20 2,594.20 62.00Alaska 2,899.41 113.50 32.50 300.00 17.60 673.20Arizona 31,554.59 6,690.80 1,092.00 1,050.00 51.00 2,010.30Arkansas 16,789.69 5,287.00 1.80California 80,610.12 238.70 115.50 4,460.20 911.10 10,933.99Colorado 16,884.84 5,705.10 365.20 665.60 298.70 1,114.30Connecticut 9,821.67 400.00 24.80 27.26Delaware 3,255.94 442.40 309.20 309.20District of Columbia 10.80 0.00Florida 68,510.13 11,361.70 1,252.70 3,264.20 3,184.03Georgia 42,111.66 13,444.20 2,441.90 850.00 760.00 4,105.76Hawaii 3,027.45 203.00 112.86Idaho 4,987.74 18.90 6.20 520.00 5.49 227.70 817.19Illinois 51,822.09 17,355.80 1,218.40 571.00 1,202.40 1,820.66Indiana 30,858.83 20,688.80 2,522.80 644.00 280.00 937.00Iowa 17,263.00 7,168.41 689.80 870.00 1,557.05 2,482.05Kansas 15,607.03 5,384.80 49.00 895.00 246.20 1,884.10 3,026.30Kentucky 25,028.54 17,822.70 3,057.50 690.00 968.80Louisiana 29,400.63 3,764.30 46.00 629.40 629.40Maine 4,843.89 0.00 277.40 282.40Maryland 13,676.60 5,139.20 1,328.40 866.00 190.00 1,219.00Massachusetts 14,788.18 1,160.30 1,154.60 1,394.00 468.60 1,958.36Michigan 33,485.33 12,339.90 2,429.70 143.90 134.40 279.34Minnesota 17,933.74 5,353.90 785.50 1,274.50 1,274.50


1 This total includes 35,419 MW of announced coal retirements plus an additional 1,500 MW of coal capacity that Ventyx estimates is likely to retire based on certain criteria. This does not include unannounced retirements and other coal capacity vulnerable to retirement if more stringent regulations are put in place.

Mississippi 17,926.38 2,887.50 Missouri 23,643.37 12,878.00 365.10 27.60 31.51Montana 6,530.70 2,676.60 240.00 255.00Nebraska 9,378.85 4,274.00 73.50 303.90 303.90Nevada 12,578.38 1,445.80 294.80 200.10 1,915.20New Hampshire 4,896.07 559.20 50.00 8.55 8.55New Jersey 20,457.76 2,003.00 2,105.00 2,171.80New Mexico 8,811.89 3,741.20 924.00 815.00 904.07New York 44,068.69 2,170.70 204.50 2,128.00 107.80 2,300.85North Carolina 33,165.35 10,957.10 40.00 475.00 80.00 1,035.18North Dakota 7,139.81 4,363.40 90.00 1,538.50 1,628.50Ohio 34,971.12 19,498.50 3,154.80 2,754.00 1,054.29 3,811.69Oklahoma 25,322.14 5,844.00 1,013.00 103.00, 1,713.55 1,816.55Oregon 14,602.97 601.00 601.00 662.00 1,258.50 2,227.07Pennsylvania 47,058.53 15,628.40 1,342.00 2,823.00 2,924.10Rhode Island 2,074.35 0.00 45.00 45.23South Carolina 24,579.45 6,277.70 366.00 750.00 3,019.00South Dakota 4,242.20 456.00 402.05 402.05Tennessee 23,923.65 9,210.70 2,511.20 1,303.50Texas 122,043.07 25,354.80 558.00 240.00 13,924.70 6,084.40 21,186.09Utah 8,940.77 5,218.89 296.10 5.90 140.00 545.90Vermont 1,435.65 0.00 30.00 76.12Virginia 28,268.67 5,890.20 593.00 1,358.00 1,391.70Washington 31,500.66 1,459.80 729.90 267.00 417.00West Virginia 17,213.39 15,019.93 1,802.70 52.50 110.50Wisconsin 19,369.78 8,410.10 802.40 102.50 102.50Wyoming 8,889.02 6,755.80 7.00 670 3,269.00 3,939.00

Total 1,172,613.18 325,462.93 36,910.90 3,175.00 44,075.39 26,511.98 92,102.24

TABLE 6.6

Coal Retirements and Additions (continued from page 26)

State Total Current Coal Anounced Planned Planned Planned Total Planned Capacity Capacity Coal Coal Natural Gas Wind Capacity (MW) (MW) Retirements Additions Additions Additions Additions (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)


TABLE 6.7

Net Potential Generation Capacity by 2020

TABLE 6.7 combines current operating capacity with planned capacity additions and retirements to demonstrate the shift in electricity generation in America by 2020. This table only includes plants permitted and under construction because proposed capacity is uncertain. Planned retirements and additions can and most likely will change.

The table shows the continued prominence of natural gas-fired generation. Solar capacity does not require as much lead time to be developed as other fuels, so this table likely undercounts the amount of solar and wind capacity that will be online in the future.

Primary Fuel Type Existing Percent Planned Existing Plus Planned Net Potential Percent Potential Nameplate Capacity Added Planned Retirements Cacpacity in Increase Percent Capacity in in 2015 Capacity Added by 2020 2020 (MW) in Capacity Capacity 2015 (MW) (MW) Capacity (MW) by 2020 in 2020

Natural Gas 489,327.93 41.88% 43,766.19 533,094.12 13,987.30 519,106.82 6.1% 43.04%Coal 324,908.24 27.81% 3,175.00 328,083.24 35,419.20 292,664.04 -9.9% 24.27%Nuclear 107,548.64 9.21% 5,737.90 113,286.54 550.00 112,736.54 4.8% 9.35%Hydro 98,381.72 8.42% 906.42 99,288.14 1,018.00 98,270.14 -0.1% 8.15% Wind 63,588.62 5.44% 26,586.98 90,175.60 279.35 89,896.25 41.4% 7.45%Distillate Fuel Oil 25,030.22 2.14% 63.50 25,093.72 1,240.70 23,853.02 -4.7% 1.98%Oil 18,401.80 1.58% 18,401.80 1,465.20 16,936.60 -8.0% 1.40%Solar 10,595.40 0.91% 9,365.29 19,960.70 19,960.70 88.4% 1.66%Wood 4,988.27 0.43% 387.46 5,375.72 5,375.72 7.8% 0.45%Wood Waste Liquids 4,790.95 0.41% 62.00 4,852.95 4,852.95 1.3% 0.40%Geothermal 3,869.45 0.33% 771.08 4,640.53 4,640.53 19.9% 0.38%Petroleum Coke 2,774.20 0.24% 2,774.20 2,774.20 0.0% 0.23%Waste 2,697.75 0.23% 290.20 2,987.95 2,987.95 10.8% 0.25%Landfill Gas 2,561.60 0.22% 43.61 2,605.21 22.30 2,582.91 0.8% 0.21%Kerosene 2,185.70 0.19% 2,185.70 418.50 1,767.20 -19.1% 0.15%Other Gas 2,042.80 0.17% 17.00 2,059.80 2,059.80 0.8% 0.17%Waste Heat 1,131.11 0.10% 37.23 1,168.34 1,168.34 3.3% 0.10%Blast Furnace Gas 929.60 0.08% 929.60 929.60 0.0% 0.08%Jet Fuel Oil 537.94 0.05% 537.94 537.94 0.0% 0.04%Purchased Steam 419.40 0.04% 419.40 419.40 0.0% 0.03%Agricultural Byproduct 392.50 0.03% 49.90 442.40 442.40 12.7% 0.04%Other 383.24 0.03% 707.79 1,091.03 1,091.03 184.7% 0.09%Biomass Gas 354.51 0.03% 55.60 410.11 3.50 406.61 14.7% 0.03%Biomass Solid 220.86 0.02% 77.50 298.36 298.36 35.1% 0.02%

continued on page 29


Biomass Liquid 126.69 0.01% 126.69 126.69 0.0% 0.01%Oil Other 119.91 0.01% 119.91 119.91 0.0% 0.01%Biomass Other 5.96 0.00% 1.60 7.56 7.56 26.8% 0.00%MultiFuel 4.00 0.00% 4.00 4.00 0.0% 0.00%Propane 1.63 0.00% 1.63 1.63 0.0% 0.00%

Total 1,168,320.63 100.00% 92,102.24 1,260,422.87 54,404.05 1,206,018.82 3.2% 100.00%

TABLE 6.7

Net Potential Generation Capacity by 2020 (continued from page 28)

Primary Fuel Type Existing Percent Planned Existing Plus Planned Net Potential Percent Potential Nameplate Capacity Added Planned Retirements Cacpacity in Increase Percent Capacity in in 2015 Capacity Added by 2020 2020 (MW) in Capacity Capacity 2015 (MW) (MW) Capacity (MW) by 2020 in 2020

Natural Gas43.04%

Coal24.27%

Nuclear9.35%

Hydro8.15%

Other 6.08%

Solar 1.66%

Wind 7.45%

2020 Potential Generation Capacity


The rate of new capacity additions has slowed over the past couple of years, but the trends in new capacity development have remained consistent. Natural gas continues to be the leading resource for current and future capacity, while wind and solar are making greater inroads into the nation’s overall electricity generation capacity.

The data on cancellations and additions illustrates that while the overall capacity mix in the United States will change, it will do so at a gradual pace. Coal and other traditional forms of electric generation are being dis-placed by wind, solar, and other forms of renewable generation. Environmental regulations as well as the speed at which certain resources can be developed might spur more significant changes. However, the overall fuel mix five years hence will not be dramatically different from the current mix.

Section 7Conclusion


Appendix 1Regions

This report uses regions defined by the North American Electric Reliability Council:

ASCC - Alaska Systems Coordinating Council (not shown on map)FRCC – Florida Reliability Coordinating CouncilHCC – Hawaii Coordinating Council (not shown on map)NPCC - Northeast Power Coordinating Council MRO – Midwest Reliability OrganizationRFC – Reliability First Corporation SERC - Southeastern Electric Reliability CouncilSPP – Southwest Power PoolTRE – Texas Reliability Entity* WECC - Western Electricity Coordinating Council

* The Independent System Operator that operates the electric grid for nearly all of the state of Texas is the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and is the name used for this region in the report. The Texas Reliability Entity (TRE) monitors and enforces compliance with reliability standards for NERC.


ASCC Hydro 351.20 52.2% 38.7% Natural Gas 300.00 44.6% 0.7% Wind 17.60 2.6% 0.1% Distillate Fuel Oil 4.40 0.7% 6.9% Total 673.20 ERCOT Natural Gas 13,059.70 67.8% 29.8% Wind 5,334.20 27.7% 20.1% Other 332.00 1.7% 48.0% Coal 240.00 1.2% 7.6% Solar 219.20 1.1% 2.3% Wood 63.00 0.3% 16.3% Refuse 15.79 0.1% Total 19,263.89 FRCC Natural Gas 2,955.00 92.8% 6.8% Waste 95.00 3.0% 32.7% Solar 76.50 2.4% 0.8% Waste Heat 35.03 1.1% 94.1% Biomass Solid 18.50 0.6% 23.9% Biomass Gas 4.00 0.1% 7.2% Total 3,184.03 HCC Solar 50.59 44.8% 0.5% Biomass Solid 28.00 24.8% 36.1% Hydro 14.72 13.0% 1.6% Waste 12.00 10.6% 4.1% Wood 7.56 6.7% 1.9% Total 112.86 MRO Wind 5,282.50 83.9% 19.9% Natural Gas 960.00 15.2% 2.2% Hydro 55.00 0.9% 6.1% Total 6,297.50

Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region

Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity

Appendix 2Regional Fuel Mix



NPCC Natural Gas 3,522.00 75.0% 8.0% Wind 962.15 20.5% 3.6% Solar 99.63 2.1% 1.1% Wood 72.00 1.5% 18.6% Hydro 21.99 0.5% 2.4% Waste 21.00 0.4% 7.2% Total 4,698.77

RFC Natural Gas 10,216.10 78.4% 23.3% Wind 2,192.09 16.8% 8.2% Hydro 250.90 1.9% 27.7% Waste 157.00 1.2% 54.1% Solar 113.84 0.9% 1.2% Other 90.00 0.7% 13.0% Biomass Solid 3.00 0.0% 3.9% Distillate Fuel Oil 1.50 0.0% 2.4% Total 13,024.43 SERC Nuclear 5,737.90 42.6% 100.0% Natural Gas 5,139.00 38.1% 11.7% Coal 850.00 6.3% 26.8% Wind 697.50 5.2% 2.6% Solar 598.18 4.4% 6.4% Wood 149.00 1.1% 38.5% Hydro 119.12 0.9% 13.1% Wood Waste Liquid 62.00 0.5% 100.0% Biomass Gas 50.00 0.4% 89.9% Landfill Gas 39.01 0.3% 89.5% Biomass Solid 28.00 0.2% 36.1% Waste 5.20 0.0% 1.8% Biomass Other 1.60 0.0% 100.0% Total 13,476.51

Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 32)




Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 33)


SPP Wind 4,862.85 75.5% 18.3% Coal 895.00 13.9% 28.2% Natural Gas 413.20 6.4% 0.9% Other 270.00 4.2% 39.0% Solar 1.00 0.0% 0.0% Total 6,442.05 WECC Solar 8,206.36 32.9% 87.6% Wind 7,238.10 29.0% 27.2% Natural Gas 7,201.19 28.9% 16.5% Coal 1,190.00 4.8% 37.5% Geothermal 771.08 3.1% 100.0% Wood 95.90 0.4% 24.8% Hydro 93.50 0.4% 10.3% Distillate Fuel Oil 57.60 0.2% 90.7% Agricultural Byproduct 49.90 0.2% 100.0% Other Gas 17.00 0.1% 100.0% Landfill Gas 4.60 0.0% 10.5% Waste Heat 2.20 0.0% 5.9% Biomass Gas 1.60 0.0% 2.9% Total 24,929.02


Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region


ASCC Hydro 3,239.24 90.6% 8.1% Coal 120.00 3.4% 2.0% Geothermal 110.00 3.1% 4.9% Jet Fuel 60.00 1.7% 100.0% Wind 41.60 1.2% 0.1% Distillate Fuel Oil 3.00 0.1% 4.6% Total 3,573.84 ERCOT Natural Gas 16,788.97 52.8% 22.0% Wind 9,652.45 30.3% 12.5% Nuclear 2,716.00 8.5% 9.5% Coal 1,500.00 4.7% 25.2% Solar 890.00 2.8% 2.0% Waste Heat 266.00 0.8% 55.3% Biomass Liquid 9.00 0.0% 100.0% Total 31,822.42 FRCC Natural Gas 3,493.77 42.1% 4.6% Nuclear 3,000.00 36.1% 10.5% Solar 1,292.85 15.6% 2.8% Wood 459.60 5.5% 37.9% Waste 13.00 0.2% 3.7% Hydro 26.30 0.3% 0.1% Landfill Gas 9.00 0.1% 4.6% Other 4.40 0.1% 1.3% Total 8,298.92 HCC Wind 565.00 63.2% 0.7% Geothermal 100.00 11.2% 4.5% Solar 72.00 8.1% 0.2% Liquified Natural Gas 50.63 5.7% 100.0% Agricultural Byproduct 50.00 5.6% 79.2% Landfill Gas 15.00 1.7% 7.6% Hydro 12.50 1.4% 0.0% Distillate Fuel Oil 10.00 1.1% 15.4% Waste 7.30 0.8% 2.1% Biomass Solid 6.00 0.7% 4.5% Wood 4.98 0.6% 0.4% Total 893.41



Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 35)


MRO Wind 12,826.00 75.3% 16.6% Natural Gas 3,325.52 19.5% 4.4% Coal 375.00 2.2% 6.3% Solar 361.75 2.1% 0.8% Hydro 67.37 0.4% 0.2% Wood 40.00 0.2% 3.3% Biomass Solid 30.00 0.2% 22.5% Biomass Gas 2.70 0.0% 4.2% Landfill Gas 1.60 0.0% 0.8% Total 17,029.94 NPCC Natural Gas 6,338.85 49.2% 8.3% Wind 5,011.77 38.9% 6.5% Residual Fuel Oil 632.40 4.9% 100.0% Hydro 416.86 3.2% 1.0% Solar 384.52 3.0% 0.8% Wood 97.90 0.8% 8.1% Other 4.80 0.0% 1.4% Landfill Gas 4.80 0.0% 2.4% Waste 3.20 0.0% 0.9% Biomass Gas 1.00 0.0% 1.6% Total 12,896.10 RFC Natural Gas 22,021.79 52.5% 28.8% Wind 9,101.40 21.7% 11.8% Nuclear 4,750.00 11.3% 16.7% Hydro 3,823.76 9.1% 9.6% Coal 1,266.00 3.0% 21.2% Solar 478.30 1.1% 1.0% Waste Heat 160.00 0.4% 33.3% Waste 100.50 0.2% 28.5% Blast Furnace Gas 100.00 0.2% 16.7% Wood 82.50 0.2% 6.8% Landfill Gas 34.00 0.1% 17.3% Biomass Gas 14.00 0.0% 21.9% Biomass Other 8.00 0.0% 14.9% Biomass Solid 6.40 0.0% 4.8% Distillate Fuel Oil 5.90 0.0% 9.1% Other 3.00 0.0% 0.9% Total 41,955.55



SERC Wind 8,870.35 28.1% 11.5% Natural Gas 7,154.20 22.7% 9.4% Nuclear 5,065.00 16.1% 17.8% Hydro 4,666.03 14.8% 11.7% Solar 4,358.06 13.8% 9.6% Blast Furnace Gas 500.00 1.6% 83.3% Wood 467.00 1.5% 38.5% Waste 210.40 0.7% 59.7% Waste Heat 65.00 0.2% 13.5% Biomass Solid 61.43 0.2% 46.0% Distillate Fuel Oil 46.05 0.1% 70.9% Biomass Other 45.60 0.1% 85.1% Landfill Gas 12.10 0.0% 6.2% Other 8.80 0.0% 2.6% Biomass Gas 3.12 0.0% 4.9% Total 31,533.14 SPP Wind 7,138.52 60.1% 9.3% Nuclear 2,700.00 22.7% 9.5% Natural Gas 1,176.76 9.9% 1.5% Hydro 794.92 6.7% 2.0% Solar 62.80 0.5% 0.1% Total 11,873.00 WECC Solar 37,661.03 31.4% 82.7% Hydro 26,795.33 22.3% 67.3% Wind 23,847.80 19.9% 30.9% Natural Gas 16,141.38 13.4% 21.1% Nuclear 10,240.00 8.5% 36.0% Geothermal 2,032.70 1.7% 90.6% Coal 2,701.00 2.3% 45.3% Other 317.59 0.3% 93.8% Landfill Gas 119.97 0.1% 61.1% Wood 61.80 0.1% 5.1% Biomass Gas 43.10 0.0% 67.4% Biomass Solid 29.80 0.0% 22.3% Agricultural Byproduct 19.44 0.0% 30.8% Waste 18.20 0.0% 5.2% Total 120,029.14 .

Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 36)


america’s electricity generation capacity

Data & Analytics