" single cmo " management committee 22 september 2011
Post on 30-Dec-2015
21 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
group housing of pregnant sows as applicable from 1 January 2013
"Single CMO" Management Committee22 September 2011
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 2
Development of the EU Pig Carcasses price
115
135
155
175
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
€/1
00
kg
5 yr Avg (06-10) 2008 2009 2010 2011
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 3
Percentual change in Pig prices August 2011
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HUMT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU
Diff
eren
ce in
€ur
o in
%
-1 year
- 1 month
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 4
Development of the EU Piglet price
25
35
45
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
€/ p
iec
e
5 yr avg (06 - 10) 2008 2009 2010 2011
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 5
Change in Pig slaughter Jan - June 2011/2010Avg increase 1,8%
May slaughter shows bigger increase as expected.
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
be bg cz dk de ee ie gr es fr it cy lv lt lu hu mt nl at pl pt ro si sk fi se uk EU
in %
Jan = +1,3% Feb = +5,7% Mrz = -0,3% Apr = -2%5% May= +7,2% June= +0,4% BG & RO: Increase, or more offical and less non official slaughter?
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 6
Relation between monthly pig slaughterings and weekly pig carcass prices 2009 - 2011
1 100
1 300
1 500
1 700
1 900
2 100
2009 2010 2011
Sla
ug
hte
r in
100
0 T
105.00
115.00
125.00
135.00
145.00
155.00
165.00
175.00
Eu
ro/ 100kg
(expected) Slaughter EU 27 PriceSource: EU Commission DG AGRI
NB: Monthly Slaughter "official" slaughter only
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 7
May - June 2011 Pig Survey results.12 MSs Communicated data
2 MSs did not respect the legal obligations (19.9.2011)
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
BE DK DE IE ES FR IT HU NL ÖS PL RO SE UK
To
tal p
igs
in 1
000
hea
ds
2008 2009 2010 2011
Total - 0,5%Piglets + 0,9%Y. pigs -1.0%Mated Sows -4.8%of which:1st time mated -6.4%
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 8
Slaughter: Quarterly change compared to the same period in the previous year (GIP Data only)
last update: 19.9.2011 (19 MSs only)missing : DK, IT, CY, HU, MT, NL, AT, SE
-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
Ch
ang
e in
%
Q1 -4,5% -0,5% 1,8% 1,2%
Q2 -2,6% -1,0% 2,6% -1,6%
Q3 -3,8% 3,5% 1,8%
Q4 -1,5% 0,1% 2,6%
Ann -3,1% 0,5% 1,5%
2009 2010 2011 2012
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 9
Price of Basic Ingredients 2008 - 2011
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Juil Oct Jan 09 April Juil Oct Jan 10 April Juil Oct Jan-11 April Juil Oct Jan-12
Euro
/ to
nne
Soft Wheat (EU)
Barley (EU)
Maïs (EU)
Soja (CAF)
Hulls (EU)
Manioc (CAF)
C.G.F. (CAF)
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 10
Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2010 & 2011)
850
1 000
1 150
1 300
1 450
| July2010
| Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan2011
| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
01 Nearby
2011 08 Aug
2011 09 Sep
2011 11 Nov
2012 01 Jan
Delivery:
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 11
Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2010 & 2011)
80
110
140
170
200
| July2010
| Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan2011
| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
€uro
/ Ton
n
01 Nearby
2011 Nov
2012 Jan
2012 May
2012 Nov
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 12
Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2010 - 2011)
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
| July2010
| Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan2011
| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
€/To
nn
01 Nearby
2011 Aug
2011 Nov
2012 Jan
Delivery:
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 13
Comparisson between Compoundfeed for Pigs and a Cereal-Feedmix
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
Euro
/ 10
0kg (
pig
carc
ase
)
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
€uro
/ T (
cere
alm
ix &
Com
p. fe
ed)
margin pig/ comp. Feed (4.4 > 4.0)Pig carcaseAvg Margin 2006 - 2010 (43.83€/100kg)Cereal-mixCompound feed
NB: Feed & feed components: July - Aug. = forecast. Sept. - Dec. = Estimation Pig Carcase price: Aug. - Dec. = forecast
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 14
Weekly average Pigprices 2007 - 2010 in Euro/ 100kg carcase
EU, Brazil and the US
55,0
75,0
95,0
115,0
135,0
155,0
175,0
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
weeksEUUSBraz. avgCDN Quebec
EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meatUS = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)CDN= Quebeck index 100 (agr.gc.ca)
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 15
Pigprices in US and EU and forecastsEU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat
US Forecast: Chicago Mercantile Exchange
70
95
120
145
170
195
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12
€uro
/ 10
0kg
EU
US
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 16
Weekly exchange rate US dollar 2007 - 2011
1 €uro = ………US$
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
| 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 17
Trade in Pigmeat
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 18
46
13
5
59
72
0
71
93
7
51
64
1
63
80
0
55
91
8
56
07
7
54
49
9
72
27
6
22
61
2
21
73
0
32
36
8
43
17
9
59
83
8
51
66
2
43
40
1
21
23
9
88
1 0
11
94
3 4
05
1 0
83
23
0
1 2
38
13
8
1 5
56
96
1
1 5
45
90
7
1 3
31
80
8
1 5
26
56
3
1 5
09
30
2
1 7
80
56
8
1 9
38
45
5
2 0
89
36
3
1 9
10
90
8
2 5
69
08
7
2 3
84
53
6
2 6
85
31
9
1 7
59
76
9
0
250 000
500 000
750 000
1 000 000
1 250 000
1 500 000
1 750 000
2 000 000
2 250 000
2 500 000
2 750 000
3 000 000
3 250 000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Jul 11
To
nn
es
pro
du
ct
we
igh
t
IMPORTS EXPORTS
EU trade of PIG products
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 19
EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
OriginsOriginsCompared
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to J an-J ul 11
Switzerland 10 476 24% 12 377 21% 17 240 33% 17 481 40% 10 116 48% 4%
Chile 12 323 29% 17 142 29% 16 557 32% 8 874 20% 4 395 21% -19%
USA 9 065 21% 21 532 36% 6 416 12% 5 616 13% 842 4% -82%
Croatia 2 863 7% 3 965 7% 4 061 8% 5 250 12% 2 588 12% -10%
Canada 2 660 6% 53 0% 340 1% 414 1% 26 0% -93%
Serbia 1 217 3% 1 181 2% 387 1% 851 2% 1 441 7% +++
Other 4 576 11% 3 588 6% 6 661 13% 4 916 11% 1 831 9%
EXTRA EU 25/27 43 179 59 838 51 662 43 401 21 239
% change + 39% - 14% - 16% - 20.7%
2007 2008 2009 Jan-Jul 112010
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 20
EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (Tonnes prod. weight)
3 377 4 801842
11 0345 433
4 395
9 377
9 697
5 388
2 958
10 116
3 298
31 157
26 784
21 239
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
Jan-Jul 09 Jan-Jul 10 Jan-Jul 11
USA Chile Switzerland
Croatia Argentina Other destinations
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR)
8 208 12 2772 615
23 889 13 887
14 194
13 668
9 473
7 204
52 438
43 286
33 284
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
Jan-Jul 09 Jan-Jul 10 Jan-Jul 11
USA Chile SwitzerlandCroatia Argentina Other destinations
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 21
I mpor t s of sel ect ed PI G product s
0
1 500
3 000
4 500
6 000
|J an 06
2006 |J an 07
2007 |J an 08
2008 |J an 09
2009 |J an 10
2010 |J an 11
2011 |J an 12
i n Tonnes ( pr oduct wei ght )
FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 22
EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
DestinationsDestinationsCompared
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Jul 11
Russia 647 052 33.9% 769 044 29.9% 760 880 31.9% 809 149 30.1% 487 277 27.7% + 7%
Hong Kong 243 171 12.7% 462 299 18.0% 413 548 17.3% 421 948 15.7% 292 943 16.6% + 26%
Japan 232 951 12.2% 236 609 9.2% 186 134 7.8% 223 903 8.3% 131 644 7.5% - 0%
China 86 345 4.5% 147 951 5.8% 178 725 7.5% 212 020 7.9% 178 552 10.1% + 77%
Ukraine 2 757 0.1% 189 001 7.4% 147 030 6.2% 137 882 5.1% 48 591 2.8% - 28%
South Korea 137 421 7.2% 115 757 4.5% 95 163 4.0% 100 796 3.8% 125 912 7.2% + 113%
Philippines 34 243 1.8% 40 912 1.6% 26 572 1.1% 89 388 3.3% 59 866 3.4% + 13%
Croatia 56 151 2.9% 63 426 2.5% 70 697 3.0% 67 581 2.5% 37 037 2.1% + 8%
USA 66 472 3.5% 61 471 2.4% 55 495 2.3% 58 627 2.2% 35 302 2.0% + 3%
Belarus 10 509 0.5% 55 276 2.2% 28 369 1.2% 80 284 3.0% 55 793 3.2% + 91%
Australia 34 583 1.8% 45 621 1.8% 46 703 2.0% 50 310 1.9% 26 430 1.5% - 8%
Angola 48 637 2.5% 49 003 1.9% 45 424 1.9% 44 501 1.7% 32 904 1.9% + 43%
Other 310 615 16.3% 332 719 13.0% 329 795 13.8% 388 931 14.5% 247 518 14.1%EXTRA EU15-25-27 1 910 908 2 569 087 2 384 536 2 685 319 1 759 769
% change + 34% - 7% + 13% + 20.5%
2007 2008 2009 Jan-Jul 112010
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 23
EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)
398 452 454 414 487 277
215 793232 629
292 943
131 644439 454
481 423
543 441
115 165131 979
1 323 1141 460 639
1 759 769
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 000
1 800 000
2 000 000
Jan-Jul 09 Jan-Jul 10 Jan-Jul 11
Tonn
es (p
rodu
ct w
eigh
t)
Russia Hong Kong China
Japan South Korea Other destinations
EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)
517 731 614 867 736 350
214 474314 272
436 919
817 660853 989
1 030 867
402 805438 034
2 139 6592 320 028
2 963 936
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
Jan-Jul 09 Jan-Jul 10 Jan-Jul 11
1,00
0 E
UR
Russia Hong Kong China
Japan South Korea Other destinations
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 24
Exports of selected PIG products
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
|Jan06
2006 |Jan07
2007 |Jan08
2008 |Jan09
2009 |Jan10
2010 |Jan11
2011 |Jan12
in T
on
ne
s (
pro
du
ct
we
igh
t)
FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS
DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 25
Cumulated quantity of weekly requests
for Export licenses in the Pigmeat sector
for Gatt year 2011 - 2012
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
To
nn
es
Cumulative quantity available
cumulative attributions
top related