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The Mekong basin development planning process
Ton Lennaerts
CTA Basin Development Plan Programme
The Mekong basin development planning process
Ton Lennaerts
CTA Basin Development Plan Programme
JRP training 8 June 2012
The BDP ProgrammeThe BDP Programme
A participatory, multi-sector and integrated planning A participatory, multi-sector and integrated planning process that is led by the MRC Member Countries process that is led by the MRC Member Countries and implemented at the regional, national and sub-and implemented at the regional, national and sub-
basin levels basin levels
The BDP Story The BDP Story The BDP Story The BDP Story
Provides an overview of basin development planning since the Second World War
Many planning reports were produced but little water infrastructure got built in the Mekong basin compared to other river basins
In industrialized countries, the best projects were completed before societal values shifted and major emphasis was placed on achieving environmental objectives
As a result, there are strong pressures today on the Mekong countries to adopt a different development path to growth than industrial countries have taken
This is a path largely untrodden and a challenge for the BDP Programme
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Start of a new era of Mekong Cooperation:
Cooperate in all fields…but not limited to…hydropower, irrigation, fisheries…
Development of full potential of sustainable benefits for all Member Countries.....through formulation of a Basin Development Plan
Prevent harmful effects on the environment and the ecology
Enabled by water utilization procedures and monitoring systems e.g. Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement of significant projects
The 1995 Mekong AgreementThe 1995 Mekong Agreement
The Agreement is about cooperation on balancing basin development and protection. The BDP is a primary The BDP is a primary instrument for this cooperationinstrument for this cooperation
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Mekong development: meeting the Mekong development: meeting the needs, keeping the balanceneeds, keeping the balance
‘Complex hydrology’ and limited investments in water management and infrastructure often correlates with widespread poverty around the world
Unique biodiversity and large fisheries on which millions of people in Mekong Basin depend
Much of the Mekong Basin remains among the poorest regions - malnutrition poses great challenges
Increasing demand for water resources Increasing demand for water resources development to reduce poverty and development to reduce poverty and support an increasing populationsupport an increasing population
Storage
Development plans of LMB countries Development plans of LMB countries Development plans of LMB countries Development plans of LMB countries
UMDDF
20Y w/o MD20Y w/o LMD20Y w/o TMD20Y w/o CMD
20-Year Plan Scenario
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Definite Future
Scenario
Drivers of the LMB countries’ Drivers of the LMB countries’ deveIopment plansdeveIopment plans
Drivers of the LMB countries’ Drivers of the LMB countries’ deveIopment plansdeveIopment plans
• China Created upstream storage Investments in LMB (energy, agriculture, other)
• Lao PDR GDP growth through hydro-electricity exports (example: Panama)
example) (mitigation of climate change)
• Cambodia Generation and transmission of cheaper electricity Expansion and intensification of agriculture
• Viet Nam Developed most of its hydropower and irrigated agriculture Management of saline intrusion and flood damage
BDP1 (2001-2006) set up the processBDP1 (2001-2006) set up the processBDP1 (2001-2006) set up the processBDP1 (2001-2006) set up the process
Started 6 years (!) after the signing of the 1995 Agreement It developed a participatory process, tools, strategic directions,
and lists of non controversial projects
BDP2 (2007-2011) delivered BDP2 (2007-2011) delivered the planthe plan
BDP2 (2007-2011) delivered BDP2 (2007-2011) delivered the planthe plan
Had to move beyond process: by 2007 water resources development was accelerating
Conducted a basin-wide cumulative Conducted a basin-wide cumulative impact assessment of the basin impact assessment of the basin countries’ national planscountries’ national plans, with and without consideration of climate change impacts (reported in 14 volumes)
Some characteristics of the process and examples of results are presented on the next slides
The assessment of basin-wide The assessment of basin-wide development scenariosdevelopment scenarios
Balancing development and protectionBalancing development and protection
Responsible Growth
Agreeing on an acceptable balanceAgreeing on an acceptable balanceAgreeing on an acceptable balanceAgreeing on an acceptable balance
Using a basin-wide integrated assessment framework:
Basin-wide development scenarios assessed the cumulative environmental, social and economic impacts of national development plans and alternative perspectives
SEA of mainstream hydropower dams analyzed opportunities and risks
The MRC facilitated dialogue and negotiations on costs and benefits, and builds consensus on an acceptable balance between water resources development and protection
Three-year process; all stakeholders involved through meetings, surveys, workshops, conferences, forums, etc.
Scenarios consideredScenarios considered
13Foreseeable Future and Longer Term Future Scenarios were assessed with and without consideration of climate change impacts
Main features of Main features of considered scenariosconsidered scenarios
Main features of Main features of considered scenariosconsidered scenarios
Scenarios are defined by the level of land and water resources development in the Mekong Basin, including irrigation, hydropower, domestic and industrial water supply and significant flood management measures
Level of developments is derived from national plans, sector reviews and trends
Input data are reviewed and verified with the member countries
BLUMDDF20Y w/o MD20Y w/o LMD20Y w/o TMD20Y w/o CMD20Y with all MDLTDVHD
14
Assessment Assessment criteriacriteria
Comprise 12 specific development objectives within economic, environmental and social spheres
A total of 42 assessment indicators have been identified and assessed within the framework
In addition, equity is evaluated
Scope of assessment is NOT to endorse specific projects 15
Assessment approachAssessment approachAssessment approachAssessment approach Based on the concept of IWRM that holds the
promise of reconciling goals of economic efficiency, social equity, and environmental sustainability
Used transparent data sets, proven models and impact analytical tools and a multi-disciplinary expert team
Stakeholder participation has been carried out along the whole process at sub-area, national and regional levels
The scenarios were assessed on hydrological changes and results fed into the assessment of the transboundary economic, social and environmental impacts
The results were discussed at national level and broader stakeholder
Scenarios that are beneficial to all LMB countries and sustainable from a basin perspective, were considered as preferred scenarios
Scoping and formulation
Collection of input data
Modelling of hydrological changes
Assessment of transboundary
environmental, social and economic impacts
Evaluation and discussion of
preferred scenarios
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17Hydrological changes and physical impacts caused by interventions were assessed for Hydrological changes and physical impacts caused by interventions were assessed for their environmental and economic impacts and thence their social impacts their environmental and economic impacts and thence their social impacts
Scenario design and assumptions
Key output data for indicator assessment
Intermediate analyses
Physical impacts
Physical impacts
Energy production
hydropower
Navigation incremental boat traffic
Flood damages incremental values
Agricultural production
incremental values
Land use changes
induced by hydrological change and flood control
Sediment and geomorphology
changes induced by
hydrological change
Agricultural productivity incremental yields
Bank erosion incremental areas
Environmental changes
in wetlands, deep pools and habitats induced by
hydrological change
Pollutants & WQ indicative changes
Hydrological assessment of
scenariosinduced by interventions
and climate change
TemporalSpatialSalinity
Ecosytems and biodiversity
indicative changes
Fisheries production
incremental areas
Economic impacts
NPV etc
Employment impacts
Jobs created/lost
Social impacts Health food & income
scurity
National plans
Development proposals
Climate change
Development scenarios
Baseline
Definite futureForeseeable future
Long-termetc
Main assumptions
Prices, consumption, demography etc
Overview of assessment methodology and processes
Legend
Irrigated areas
incremental values
Impacts on fish migration
induced by barriers and flow changes
Each of the linkages will be taken into
account in the assessment
process
Each of the linkages will be taken into
account in the assessment
process
Integrated approachIntegrated approach
The tools The tools The tools The tools
Knowledge Base
Planning and monitoring data such as:
•hydrological records
•physical data •socio-economic and environmental data •scenario description data•simulation model input data•simulation model results
MRC Decision Support Framework (DSF)
DSF User Interface and Tools
Basin Simulation Modelling Package
SWATSWAT
IQQMIQQM
ISISISIS
Impact Analysis Tools
Reporting Tools
Precipitation
Infiltration
Evaporation and transpiration
Run off to streams
Return flowsLosses to deep groundwater
Drainage
System storage
Hydropower
Water supply
Irrigation
SWAT
IQQM
Isis18
The Tools (2)The Tools (2)The Tools (2)The Tools (2)
GIS for spatial integration and quantitative assessment
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Flooded area
Wetlands
Chiang Sean
Chiang Khan
Vientiane
Mukdahan
Pakse
Prek Kdam
Tan ChauChau Doc
Luang Prabang
Kampong Luong
20
Nakhon Phanom
StrungtengKratie
Flow changes in the Mekong mainstreamFlow changes in the Mekong mainstream
Changes in river bed and bank erosionChanges in river bed and bank erosionChanges in river bed and bank erosionChanges in river bed and bank erosion
Chiang Saen
Nong Khai Pakse
Strungteng
Delta
Cause:Reduction of sediment entering to Mekong mainstream
Alluvial
Alluvial
Bedrock
Bedrock
No major change in bedrock reaches Sandbars from Nong Kai to Pakse are readily
erodible and river bed may begin to fall within next 20 years
Some sediment loss may occur immediately downstream of Kratie and changes in Delta will be visible in the long term, including coastal erosion21
Changes in water qualityChanges in water quality
In the longer term total agro-chemical use more or less triples compared to the present use.
Water quality in the mainstream will deteriorate, but due to the increase in dry season flows and the river’s high self purifying capacity water quality will remain within standards
Locally, mainly in the Delta downstream of Phnom Penh, problems may emerge
N Loss per catchment (ton/y)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Present
20YP
LTD
VHD
Herbicide use (ton/y)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Lao Thailand Cambodia Vietnam
Present
20 Year Plan
LTD
VHD
Reduction of valuable wetlandsReduction of valuable wetlandsReduction of valuable wetlandsReduction of valuable wetlands
2323
Inundated forests Inundated grasslands
Incremental values are compared with Baseline scenario Unit:ha
Marshes/seasonal wetlands
Loss of valuable wetland due to reduced flooding particularly in Definite Future Scenario
The reduced area significant in Cambodia (mainly around Tonle Sap Lake ) followed by Lao and Thailand
Climate change will reverse the reduction of flooded areas and wetlands
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Station BL(2000)
DF(2015)
20Y(2030)
LTD(2060)
Lao PDR 17,035 ↓-4,867 ↓-5,860 ↓-5,570(29%) (34%) (33%)
Thailand 61,696 ↓-9,317 ↓-11,184 ↓-10,683(15%) (18%) (17%)
Cambodia 1,287,749 ↓-20,979 ↓-31,112 ↓-38,515(1.6%) (2.4%) (3.0%)
Viet Nam 100,614 ↓-42 ↓-144 ↓-648(0.0%) (0.1%) (0.6%)
Impact on environment hotspotsImpact on environment hotspotsImpact on environment hotspotsImpact on environment hotspots 32 environmental hotspots identified:
Ramsar sites, biosphere reserves, protected areas, Important Bird Areas (IBA’s)
Major causes are
Definite Future Change in flow and flood patterns
Foreseeable Future and Long term Change in sedimentation, nutrient and
water quality Change in wetland habitats (deep pools,
sandbars and rapids) and productivity Blockage of migration route Climate change
High impact by proposed developments in the 20-Year Plan Scenario with all 11 LMB mainstream dams 24
25
20-Year Plan Scenario with 11 mainstream dams
20-Year Plan Scenario without mainstream dams
Low
Medium
High
Low
Medium
High
25
26
Deep pool
Pak Beng
Luang Prabang
Xayaburi
Pak Lai
Sanakram
Pak Chom
Ban Kum
Strungteng
Sambor
Donsahong
Fish migration
routeThe scenario assessments estimate the loss of capture fisheries productivity
SEA of mainstream dams identifies mitigation and enhancement measures
Fish Expert Group discusses possible technologies and mitigation measures
Impacts on fishImpacts on fish
Impact on capture fisheries yieldImpact on capture fisheries yield
Capture fisheries yield is estimated based on habitats: river-floodplain, rain-fed and permanent water including reservoirs
Yield will either increase or decrease in rain-fed areas which depend on management practice while in reservoirs, yield will increase
Reduction will mainly happen in river-floodplain habitat due to many factors i.e. barriers, flow changes, habitat loss
Major losses in capture fisheries yield caused by the proposed two mainstream dams in Cambodia
These losses are particularly severe in Cambodia and Viet Nam Delta
Thailand
Cambodia
Viet Nam Delta
Lao PDRViet Nam Highland
27
28
Social assessment: exposed vulnerable Social assessment: exposed vulnerable resource users (‘000 livelihoods at riskresource users (‘000 livelihoods at risk)
Net economic benefitsNet economic benefits The net economic benefits in the
various 20-Year Plan Scenarios are large and mainly derived from the development of hydropower
But there would be also significant benefits in irrigated agriculture, reservoir and rice filed fisheries and some in navigation
Main negative impacts are in loss of capture fisheries, wetland area production, biodiversity forest and recession rice
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0
5
10
15
20
DF 20Y 20Y w /oMD
20Y w /oLMD
20Y w /oTMD
NPV
US$
billio
n
Lao PDR
Thailand
Cambodia
Vietnam
Lao PDR would gain most, mainly from hydropower production, but others would also benefit both as producers and consumers of electricity
Cambodia would benefit less than other countries, due to adverse impacts on capture fisheries
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Defi
nit
e
Fu
ture
20-
Yea
r P
lan
w/o
MD
20-
Yea
r P
lan
w/o
LM
D
20-
Yea
r P
lan
w/o
TM D
20-
Yea
r P
lan
w/o
CM
D
20-
Yea
r P
lan
wit
h a
ll 1
1 M
D
20-
Yea
r P
lan
+
Clim
ate
Ch
an
ge
Lo
ng
Term
Deve
lop
men
t
Lo
ng
Term
Deve
lop
men
t
+ C
lim
ate
Ch
an
ge
Very
Hig
h
Deve
lop
men
t
Hydropower 11,491 17,603 25,002 28,706 30,333 32,823 32,823 37,865 37,865 38,787
Irrigated Agriculture 0 1,659 1,659 1,659 1,659 1,659 1,659 4,268 4,268 16,129
Reservoir Fisheries 91 107 132 202 169 215 215 420 420 473
Aquaculture 1,129 1,261 1,261 1,261 1,261 1,261 1,261 1,892 1,892 2,522
Capture Fisheries Losses
-946 -732 -952 -1,914 -1,218 -1,936 -1,936 -1,818 -1,818 -1,801
Wetland Area Reduction
-228 -176 -178 -225 -178 -225 101 -260 36 -310
Eco-hotspots/Biodiversity
-85 -220 -240 -330 -305 -330 -415 -435 -525 -700
Forests -153 -183 -228 -349 -254 -372 -372 -731 -731 -822
Recession Rice -144 -173 -175 -178 -176 -178 278 -226 185 -274
Flood Mitigation 461 360 360 360 360 377 -273 408 -296 432
Saline Area Reduction 20 25 23 21 23 27 -2 22 -2 16
Riverbank Erosion 0 n n n n n n n n n
Navigation 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64
Total LMB 11,700 19,596 26,729 29,277 31,739 33,386 33,404 41,469 41,359 54,516
Lao PDR 6,595 11,688 17,636 18,927 22,632 22,588 22,604 26,401 26,501 29,608
Thailand 1,095 2,750 3,913 3,970 4,223 4,410 4,445 5,011 5,097 6,351
Cambodia 693 1,446 1,351 2,237 1,143 2,237 2,628 5,302 5,470 13,134
Vietnam 3,317 3,711 3,828 4,142 3,741 4,151 3,727 4,755 4,292 5,423
Total LMB 11,700 19,596 26,729 29,277 31,739 33,386 33,404 41,469 41,359 54,516
Comparison of economic NPV by sector and country Comparison of economic NPV by sector and country (in ‘000 US$)(in ‘000 US$)
Some conclusionsSome conclusionsSome conclusionsSome conclusions
There is considerable scope for further basin development that can improve water, energy, and food security in the region
The natural dry season flow regime can be protected through the MRC Procedure on the Maintenance of the Flows on the Mainstream (PMFM) and and continue to meet the important and essential environmental and social needs
BLUMDDF20Y w/o MD
20Y w/o LMD
20Y w/o TMD
20Y w/o CMD
20Y with all MD
31
Transboundary benefits Transboundary benefits and costsand costs
Transboundary benefits Transboundary benefits and costsand costs
The assessment demonstrated the considerable interplay (nexus) between water, energy, food, environmental and climate security
With coordinated national planning, benefits can be created for all countries.
A few examples are given in the next slides
Example 1: Synergy between hydropower and irrigation development plans (20-year plan secnario)
33
Risk is small during the next 20 years that the redistributed water from the wet to the dry season by hydropower development is not sufficient to source the irrigation developments that are being planned
Transboundary benefit sharing in these two sectors amounts to $7,000 million
The natural dry season The natural dry season flow regime can be flow regime can be protected protected
Key assumptions
UMB dams in place by 2015 100% LMB dams found viable 100% Proportion of Thai irrigation from diversions/lift 95%
UMB dams in place by 2020 100% UMB dam performance 100% Proportion of Lao irrigation dependent upon dams 35%
Water balance at Tang Chau for average monthly flow in March, MCMCompared to baseline, shows incremental flow augmentation from UMB and LMB dams against incremental abstractions for irrigation and water supply
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
LMB dams
China dams
Viet Nam irrig.
Cambodia irrig.
Lao irrigation
Thai irrigation
Water supply
2060 set at Very High Development
2060
2010
2030
2030
Example 2: Trade-off beween hydropower Example 2: Trade-off beween hydropower development plans and capture fisheriesdevelopment plans and capture fisheries
Yield will either increase or decrease in rain-fed areas which depend on management practice while in reservoirs, yield will increase
Reduction will mainly happen in river-floodplain habitat due to many factors i.e. barriers, flow changes, habitat loss
The lower of the proposed eleven mainstream dams have the largest impact on LMB’s capture fisheries.
Regional capture fisheries net cost due to hydropower development amounts to $1,700 million in the 20-year plan scenario
ThailandCambodia
Viet Nam Delta
Lao PDRViet Nam Highland
34
Example 3: Synergy between climate Example 3: Synergy between climate change and environmental valueschange and environmental values
35
In the 20-year and long-term scenarios, climate change reverses the reduction of flooding caused by ongoing and planned development
Climate change would benefit environmental values (by $240 million), increase recession rice production (by $450 million) but all of this will be offset by increased flood damages (by $650 million)
Basin Development Strategy (adopted Basin Development Strategy (adopted January 2012)January 2012)
Basin Development Strategy (adopted Basin Development Strategy (adopted January 2012)January 2012)
37
Based on the assessment results of the basin-wide scenarios and the SEA of the proposed LMB mainstream dams, and the associated stakeholder consultations
For the first time since the 1995 Mekong Agreement, the countries have arrived at: An understanding of each other’s water-related plans
discussed the likely transboundary impacts of their plans
Developed a shared understanding of the water-related development opportunities and risks
Negotiated the Basin Development Strategy
The Strategy describes The Strategy describes
The Strategy describes The Strategy describes
• Development opportunitiesDevelopment opportunities to improve water, food and energy security
• 15 Strategic Priorities15 Strategic Priorities
For Basin Development For Basin Management
To: Address knowledge gaps and move identified
development opportunities to implementation Broaden and strengthen the basin planning
framework
• A Roadmap for implementation A Roadmap for implementation 38
• How the MRC member countries will share, utlize, manage and conserve How the MRC member countries will share, utlize, manage and conserve the watre and related resources of the Mekong to achieve the goals of the watre and related resources of the Mekong to achieve the goals of the 1995 Mekong Agreementthe 1995 Mekong Agreement
Wide stakeholder engagement Wide stakeholder engagement throughout the basin planning processthroughout the basin planning processWide stakeholder engagement Wide stakeholder engagement throughout the basin planning processthroughout the basin planning process
Implementation of the Strategy is underway at Implementation of the Strategy is underway at the regional and national level and will: the regional and national level and will:
Implementation of the Strategy is underway at Implementation of the Strategy is underway at the regional and national level and will: the regional and national level and will:
• Reduce knowledge gaps (fisheries, sediments, ecosystems)
• Address the adverse impacts of ongoing development
• Develop a Mekong multi-sector mechanism for transboundary cost and benefit sharing
• Develop environmental and socio-economic baselines
• Bring regional and national planning ‘closer together’
• Broaden the current basin-wide scenarios to assess how regional benefits can be increased and regional costs reduced
• Strengthen regional cooperation on basin planning and the implementation of the MRC Procedures
42
The future of BDPThe future of BDP
The BDP will act as the instrument for impact analysis and consultation
Much of future basin development can and should be undertaken at the national level
The BDP will explore ways to achieve transboundary benefits and mitigate transboundary costs, through the adaptation and modification of national investments.
There are almost certainly transboundary opportunities, where two or more LMB countries could develop joint projects that provide substantive benefits that can be shared.
The only mandated instrument for identifying and promoting such opportunities is the BDP
Unilateral Action
Joint Action
Coordination
Collaboration
Cooperation Continuum
•Communication & notification
•Information sharing
•Regional assessments
•Adapt national plans Adapt national plans to mitigate regional to mitigate regional costscosts
•Adapt national plans Adapt national plans to capture regional to capture regional gainsgains
•Identify, negotiate & Identify, negotiate & implement national implement national investments that investments that capture cooperative capture cooperative gainsgains
•Joint institutions
•Joint project assessment & design
•Joint investment
•Joint ownership of assets
Dispute Integration
The basin planning process is bringing transboundary The basin planning process is bringing transboundary cooperation and national process to the next higher cooperation and national process to the next higher levellevel
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