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1870õ1914 Classical gold standard period
April 1925 United Kingdom returns to gold standard
October 1929 United States stock market crashes
September 1931 United Kingdom abandons gold standard
July 1944 Bretton Woods conference
March 1947 International Monetary Fund comes into being
August 1971 United States suspends convertibility of dollar into gold
õ Bretton Woods system collapses
December 1971 Smithsonian Agreement
March 1972 European snake with 2.25% band of fluctuation allowed
March 1973 Managed float regime comes into being
April 1978 Jamaica Accords take effect
September 1985 Plaza accord
September 1992 United Kingdom and Italy abandon Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM)
August 1993 European Monetary System allows ?15% fluctuation in exchange rates
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed exchange-rate system
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1870c§15%�I[æ^7� �§ù�'~1913c,�70%§
320V20c�üg.�Ô�m¡EÏ��90%§��1939c�
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The earliest establishment of a gold standard was in the United Kingdom
in 1821. McKinnon(1993) summarized the Gold Standard as followsµ
1 Fix an official gold price or mint parity and convert freely between
domestic money and gold at that price.
2 Do not restrict the export or import of gold by private citizens, nor
impose any other exchange restrictions on current or capital account
transacting.
3 Back national banknotes and coinage with earmarked gold reserves,
and condition long-run growth in deposit money on availability of
general gold reserves.
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4 In short-run liquidity crisis from an international gold drain, have the
central bank lend freely to domestic banks at higher interest
rates(Bagehot’s Rule).
5 If Rule 1 is temporarily suspended, restore convertibility at traditional
mint parity as soon as practicable – if necessary by deflating the
domestic economy.
6 Allow the common price level (nominal anchor) to be endogenously
determined by the worldwide demand for, and supply of, gold.
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 7 / 38
2. ü«�½®Ç� 2.1 7� �
7� �µ©aÚÅÄ«m
y¢¥�7� ��)±eA«/ªµ
71� £gold specie standard¤Ú7^� £gold bullion
standard¤¶
7ÕE� �£bimetallic standard¤µ`:´�±~�duüÕ¦^
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äk�½�7d��À1��;�"
y¢¥��7@|´k¤��§Ïd¢S�®Ç´3Ò1²dû½
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point¤�mÅÄ"
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United States fixed the price of gold at $20.67 per
ounce from 1834 to 1933, and Britain fixed the price
at £3 17s 10.5p per ounce from 1816 to 1914.
Therefore, the exchange rate between dollars and
pounds – the “par exchange rate” – necessarily
equaled $4.867 per pound.
Wikiwand: The pound sterling was equal to 4.87
United States dollars, 5.25 Canadian dollars, 12.10
Dutch guilders, 26.28 French francs (or equivalent
currencies in the Latin Monetary Union), 20.43
German marks or 24.02 Austro-Hungarian krone.
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In 1861, at the beginning of the
Civil War, the U.S. government paid
its soldiers with paper currency that
was convertible into gold. However,
in 1862 the government ran short of
gold and switched to fiat currency,
which is not convertible.
Convertibility was gradually
eliminated in the twentieth century,
and the last vestiges of convertibility
were dropped in 1971.
Source: Acemoglu et al.(2016).
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�â> JÑ�Ôd-M1-6ÄÅ�£price-specie-flow mechanism¤§7
� �e��I[�ISÂ|�ÏLISÔd�ÞáÚ�7�ÑÑÑ\g
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TB < 0 ⇒ Gold(M) ↓⇒ P ↓⇒ e ↑, TB ↑
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1914*1918c1�g.�ÔÏm§�Iªª*Ü�1u1�Ô�
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1919*1929cm§éõI[ÅÚ¡E7� "�du=IIåP
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To rebuild the international monetary system, 44 Allied nations signed The
Bretton Woods Agreement in July, 1944. The rules included:
1 Fix a foreign par value for the domestic currency by using gold, or a
currency tied to gold, as the numeraire; otherwise demonetize gold in
all private transacting.
2 In the short run, keep the exchange rate within 10% of its par value,
but leave its long-run par value unilaterally adjustable if the IMF
concurs.
3 Free currency convertibility for current account payments; use capital
controls to dampen currency speculation.
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 16 / 38
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4 Use national monies symmetrically in foreign transacting, including
dealings with the IMF.
5 Buffer short-run payments imbalances by drawing on official exchange
reserves and IMF credits; sterilize the domestic monetary impact of
exchange-market interventions.
6 National macroeconomic autonomy: each member government to
pursue its own price level and employment objectives unconstrained
by a common nominal anchor or price rule.
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 17 / 38
2. ü«�½®Ç� 2.2 ÙXîÜ�NX
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�7§3{é;Úî³�I�þ�È�7�§m©¢1/h<d�0Ú
/(�d�0��7d�V;�"ù´ÙXîÜ�NX���=ò:"
1970c{I²L?\Pò§½|ÊHýÏ{�ò�@�§��®½|þ
#�Ó�{��È"1971c8�15FZ�toÚ\Ù{IòØ2�I
1ÑÈ�7!�£{�§l äý{�Ú�7�m�éX"ù�¯��
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=�k+n�2Ä®Ç�"gdISÀ1NX?\��Ä��#��"
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Ap¥JKµÙXîÜ�NX�S3"�
1960c§{I²LÆ[ÛËA#Ap¥JÑ/du{���7!�§ Ù¦I[
�À1�{�!�§{��,��ISØ%À1�/ §�´�I�uÐI
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�D§é{I5`Ò¬u)�Ïn´_�¶ {���ISÀ1Ø%�cJ´7
L�±{�1�½�jͧùq�¦{I7L´���Ïn´^�I"ùü�
�¦p�gñ§Ïd´���Ø"0ù�S3gñ¡�Ap¥JK(Triffin
Dilemma)"��Ì�I[À15¿�IS��Uå�À1NX7,¬�\/Ap
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2. ü«�½®Ç� 2.2 ÙXîÜ�NX
ÙXîÜ�NXµ�)��©z
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2. ü«�½®Ç� 2.2 ÙXîÜ�NX
ÙXîÜ�NX�7� ��'�
�,{IÌ��ÙXîÜ�NXÚ=IÌ��7� �Ñ´.5��½
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3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.1 Y~µvá�xÕ2I�1X2�I�K
xÕ2I�7Õ'd
ã¡5 µoøͧ5ã`7K¤6§¥&Ñ��§2015
Source: Eichengreen, B. 2008, Globalizing Capital: A History of
the International Monetary System (Second Edition), Princeton
University Press
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 22 / 38
3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.1 Y~µvá�xÕ2I�1X2�I�K
1X2�I�K
¥-ÆpkÉÓ§g��Ïû§F���§AXÛëV�çþ½Ù
§§-££{�ü"
�IU^71©uÛ�º7dFOÙ�S3ºÌ�öÛ<ºe¥I�±^
7º�$ã§[�ü"
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 23 / 38
3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.2 Y~µ20VÐ{Ié7� �ÀJ
Gold or Silver? It’s a Question.
Note: 1900 reelection poster celebrates McKinley
standing tall on the gold standard with support from
soldiers, sailors, businessmen, factory workers and
professionals, from Wikiwand.
Note: Bryan’s speech for Presidential campaign in
1896: “You shall not press down upon the brow of
labor this crown of thorns, you shall not crucify
mankind upon a cross of gold.”
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 24 / 38
3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.2 Y~µ20VÐ{Ié7� �ÀJ
Gold or Silver? It’s a Political Question.
Source: 1896 Electoral vote results, Wikiwand
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 25 / 38
3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.2 Y~µ20VÐ{Ié7� �ÀJ
Frieden(2015): Currency Politics
Like all policies, the choices available to currency policymakers involve
trade-offs. Currency policies have both benefits and costs, and create both
winners and losers. Those who make exchange rate policies must evaluate
the trade-offs, weigh the costs and benefits, and consider the winners and
losers of their actions.
Exchange rate policy requires a government to make a relatively simple
decision:
to fix the currency or allow it to float;
to try to keep the currency strong or weak
These simple decisions reflect extraordinarily complex structures, motives,
and pressures.
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 26 / 38
3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.2 Y~µ20VÐ{Ié7� �ÀJ
Policy Preference of the Interest Groups
Source: Frieden, J.A. 1994, “Exchange Rate Politics: Contemporary Lessons from American History”, Review of International
Political Economy, Vol.1(1), P81-103
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 27 / 38
3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.2 Y~µ20VÐ{Ié7� �ÀJ
Empirical Evidence
Source: Frieden, J.A. 1997, “Monetary Populism in Nineteenth-Century America: An Open Economy Interpretation”, Journal of
Economic History, Vol.57(2), P367-395
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 28 / 38
3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.3 Y~µ{�Û���=�º
;�À1µ{�vs.=�
Source: Eichengreen, B. and M. Flandreau, 2009, “The rise and fall of the dollar (or when did the dollar replace sterling as the
leading reserve currency?”, European Review of Economic History, Vol.13(03), P377-411
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 29 / 38
3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.3 Y~µ{�Û���=�º
;�À1µV Þ
Source: Eichengreen and Flandreau(2009).
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 30 / 38
3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.3 Y~µ{�Û���=�º
;�À1µÄu«��£�ÀJ
Source: Eichengreen and Flandreau(2009).
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 31 / 38
3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.3 Y~µ{�Û���=�º
ÅÖÀ1µ{�vs.=�
Note: Fig2. “Global foreign public debt (currency
breakdown in USD million; at current exchange rates)”
Note: Fig5. “Global foreign public debt(selected currency
shares as a % of total; at current exchange rates)”.
Source: Chitu, L., B. Eichengreen and A. Mehl, 2014, “When did the dollar overtake sterling as the leading international
currency? Evidence from the bond markets”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol.111, P225-245
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 32 / 38
3. ®Ç�ü��£²LÆ 3.3 Y~µ{�Û���=�º
Ì�ÅÖÀ1µÄu«��£�ÀJ
Source: Chitu et al.(2014), Fig4 “Global foreign public
debt in sterling – Main debtors. (as a % of total, at
current exchange rates; in 1929)”.
Source: Chitu et al.(2014), Fig3 “Global foreign public
debt in US dollar – Main debtors (as a % of total; at
current exchange rates; in 1929)”.
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 33 / 38
4. ISÀ1NXU�
BIS(2015)µyG
The international monetary and financial system, then and now
Source: “Chapter 5 The international monetary and financial system”, in 85th Annual Report, BIS.
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 34 / 38
4. ISÀ1NXU�
BIS(2015)µ{�«vs.î�«
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4. ISÀ1NXU�
BIS(2015)µ{�Ì��.
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 36 / 38
4. ISÀ1NXU�
Wikiwand: �À�Y
System Reserve Assets Leaders
Flexible exchange rates Dollar, Euro, Renminbi US, Eurozone, China
Special drawing rights standard SDR US, G-20, IMF
Gold standard Gold, Dollar US
Delhi Declaration Currency basket BRICS
�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1lù �½®Ç��2Ä®Ç� II 37 / 38
4. ISÀ1NXU�
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ÂwÀª]��±ã²#ª³µÀ1Ô�Aò�±SDR�Ä:�I
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3�!¥§James Rickards�ÇJ�'uISÀ1NX�5r��
A«�U5§�{�`²¦�*:"
XJ�5�ISÀ1NXC�±IMFÌ��/SDR� �0§\@�
é¥I5`´|�u6�´6�u|º
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uU�ISÀ1NX�g�6"
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