1 canada’s rural population is growing: a rural demography update to 2011 ray d. bollman...
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Canada’s rural population is growing:
A rural demography update to 2011
Ray D. BollmanRayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
613-297-5826
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
2
Canada’s rural population is growing:
A rural demography update to 2011
An update of:
Bollman, Ray D. and Heather A. Clemenson. (2008) “Structure and Change in Canada’s Rural Demography: An Update to 2006.” Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 7, No. 7 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 21-006-XIE). (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng)
Bollman, Ray D et Heather A. Clemenson. (2008) « Structure et évolution de la démographie rurale du Canada : Mise à jour jusqu'en 2006 » Bulletin d’analyse: Régions rurales et petites villes du Canada vol. 7, no 7(Ottawa: Statistique Canada, No 21-006-XIF au catalogue) (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=fra)
Bollman, Ray D. and Heather A. Clemenson (2008) Structure and Change in Canada’s Rural Demography: An Update to 2006 with Provincial Detail (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Agriculture and Rural Working Paper No. 90, Catalogue no. 21-601-MIE) (www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/downpub/listpub.cgi?catno=21-601-MIE).
Bollman, Ray D. Heather A. Clemenson. (2008) Structure et évolution de la démographie rurale du Canada : Mise à jour jusqu’en 2006 incluant les données détaillées par province (Ottawa: Statistique Canada, Documents de travail sur l’agriculture et le milieu rural No 90, No 21-601-MIF au catalogue). (www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/downpub/listpub_f.cgi?catno=21-601-MIF)
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
3
Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
4. Summary
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
4
Take home messages:
1. Rural Canada is growing not everywhere, but Rural Canada is growing The rural share of total population is declining because
Urban is growing faster; and due to
Successful rural development• At each census, some rural areas have grown and are re-
classified as urban.• Sometimes the re-classification is greater than the growth and
thus we sometimes see fewer rural people at the end of the period, compared to the number at the beginning of the period.
2. Rural Canada is:• growing near cities• growing less or declining away from cities• some remote areas are growing due to higher Aboriginal birth rates
and / or resource development.RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
5
Take home messages:
Rural Canada is growing
Recall the first ``Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin``:
Mendelson, Robert and Ray D. Bollman. (1998) “Rural and Small Town Population is Growing in the 1990s.” Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 1, No. 1 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 21-006-XIE) .(www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/english/bsolc?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1).
Mendelson, Robert and Ray D. Bollman. (1998) “Croissance démographique observée dans les régions rurales et les petites villes dans les années 90.” Bulletin d’analyse: Régions rurales et petites villes du Canada vol. 1, no 4 (Ottawa: Statistique Canada, No 21-006-XIF au catalogue) (www.statcan.gc.ca/francais/freepub/21-006-XIF/free_f.htm).
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
6
Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
4. Summary
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-58267
Census rural areas and population centres
Census rural areas have with fewer than 1,000 inhabitants and a population density below 400 people per square kilometre. The terminology for all other areas has changed starting with the 2011 census.
Statistics Canada has defined census urban areas using the same methodology based on population size and density since the 1971 Census. An census urban area was defined as having a population of at least 1,000 and a density of 400 or more people per square kilometre.
Starting with the 2011 Census, the term 'population centre' replaces the term ‘census urban area.' Population centres are classified into one of three population size groups:
• small population centres, with a population of between 1,000 and 29,999 • medium population centres, with a population of between 30,000 and 99,999 • large urban population centres, consisting of a population of 100,000 and over.
A population centre is defined as an area with a population of at least 1,000 and a density of 400 or more people per square kilometre. All areas outside population centres continue to be defined as census rural areas. Taken together, population centres and census rural areas cover all of Canada.
Users of the former census urban area concept will be able to continue with their longitudinal analysis using population centres.
For more information, please see the note titled From urban areas to population centres, available on the Statistics Canada website, which explains the new terminology and classification of population centres.
Canada’s rural population is growing
8
Within census rural areas, population densities and living conditions can vary greatly. Included in census rural areas are:. . . small towns, villages and other populated places with less than 1,000 population according to the current census;. . . rural fringes of census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations that may contain estate lots, as well as agricultural, undeveloped and non-developable lands ;. . . agricultural lands;. . . remote and wilderness areas.
Note that both population centres and census rural areas may exist within each of the “higher” geographical groups. Thus, population centres and census rural areas may be used as variables to cross-classify census data within any standard geographic areas such as census subdivisions, census divisions, census metropolitan areas, census agglomerations or census Metropolitan area and census agglomeration Influenced Zones (MIZ).
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-58268
Canada’s rural population is growing
9
Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
4. Summary
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
10
Larger urban centres (LUCs) are Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census Agglomerations (CAs):
Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a built-up core population of 50,000 or more with a total population of 100,000 or more (prior to 2006, the built-up core threshold was 100,000).Census Agglomerations (CAs) have a built-up core population of 10,000 or more with a total population of less than 100,000 (prior to 2006, a few CAs had a total population over 100,000 if they had less than 100,000 in the built-up core – due to the different definition of a CMA prior to 2006).Both CMAs and CAs include the total population of neighbouring census subdivisions (CSDs) (i.e., incorporated towns and municipalities) where more than 50% of the employed residents commute (i.e. a measure of social-economic integration) to the built-up core of a specific CMA or CA. More details of the delineation are available from Statistics Canada (2007). {Statistics Canada. (2007) 2006 Census Dictionary (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 92-566)} (http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/english/census06/reference/dictionary/index.cfm)}
Rural and small town (RST) areas refer to non-CMA/CA areas. RST areas are divided into five types of zones based on the degree of influence (i.e., commuting) to any LUC. These zones are Census Metropolitan and Census Agglomerated Influenced Zones (MIZs) (Statistics Canada, 2007). They are defined as follows:… Strong MIZ includes CSDs where at least 30% of the employed residents commute to any CMA or CA;... Moderate MIZ includes CSDs where 5% to less than 30% of the employed residents commute to any CMA or CA;… Weak MIZ includes CSDs where more than zero but less than 5% of the employed residents commute to any CMA or CA;… No MIZ includes CSDs where none of the employed residents commute to any CMA or CA (or the number of employed residents is less than 40); and… RST Territories refers to the non-CMA/CA parts of the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut (i.e. the areas outside the CAs of Whitehorse and Yellowknife).
{See du Plessis, Valerie, Roland Beshiri, Ray D. Bollman and Heather Clemenson. (2001) “Definitions of Rural.” Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 3, No. 3 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue. no. 21-006-XIE). (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng)}
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582610
Canada’s rural population is growing
11
Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
4. Summary
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
12
OECD Regional Typology is designed to classify Territorial Level 3 (TL3) geographic units according their degree of rurality. In each country, TL1 refers to the national level, TL2 refers to the province level (in Canada or, for example, the state level in Australia or the United States) and TL3 refers to a subprovincial geographic grid. In Canada, TL3 units are census divisions.
Predominantly urban regions are census divisions where less than 15% of the population lives in an OECD rural community.Intermediate regions are census divisions where between 15% and 50% of the population lives in an OECD rural community.Predominantly rural regions are census divisions where more than 50% of the population lives in an OECD rural community. Predominantly rural regions are further classified to recognize diversity among the rural regions.
Rural metro-adjacent regions: predominantly rural census divisions which are adjacent to metropolitan centres.Rural non-metro-adjacent regions: predominantly rural census divisions which are not adjacent to metropolitan centres.Rural northern regions: predominantly rural census divisions which are classified as “northern” when Beale Codes were assigned to Canadian census divisions. For details, see du Plessis et al. (2001). The 10 Beale Codes were designed for use in the USA. However, they did not include anything like Canada’s north so an eleventh code was added. This extra code includes census divisions that are found entirely, or a majority, above the following lines of parallel in each province: Newfoundland, 50th; Quebec and Ontario, 49th; Manitoba, 53rd; and Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia, 54th. As well, rural northern regions include all of the Yukon, Nunavut and Northwest Territories. A map is available as Map B3 in Appendix B of the working paper by du Plessis et al. (2001). http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/21-601-m/21-601-m2002061-eng.htm OECD rural communities: are census consolidated subdivisions (CCSs) with a population density less than 150 persons per km2.{See du Plessis, Valerie, Roland Beshiri, Ray D. Bollman and Heather Clemenson. (2001) “Definitions of Rural.” Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 3, No. 3 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue. no. 21-006-XIE). (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng)}
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582612
Canada’s rural population is growing
13
Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
4. Summary
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
14
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4.7
4.8
4.9
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The population, 15 years of age and over, residing in census rural areas increased 4.2% from
4.7 million in May, 2006 to 4.9 million in May, 2011, Canada
Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey. CANSIM Table 282-0118.
Population 15 years of age and over residing in census rural areas (million) (plotted as a 3-month moving average)
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
15
Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
4. Summary
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
16
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4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
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The population, 15 years of age and over, residing in rural and small town areas increased 4.4% from
4.63 million in May, 2006 to 4.84 million in May, 2011, Canada
Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey. CANSIM Table 282-0118.
Population 15 years of age and over residing in rural and small town areas (million) (plotted as a 3-month moving average)
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
17
Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
4. Summary
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
18
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total population
In 2010, the total population in predominantly rural regions was 9.5 million
Predominantlyurban regions
Intermediateregions
Predominantlyrural regions(subtotal)
Rural metro-adjacent regions
Rural non-metro-adjacent regions
Rural northernregions
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Up 2.1% from 2006
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
19
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1996to
1997
1997to
1998
1998to
1999
1999to
2000
2000to
2001
2001to
2002
2002to
2003
2003to
2004
2004to
2005
2005to
2006
2006to
2007
2007to
2008
2008to
2009
2009to
2010
Percent change intotal population
Canada's predominantly rural population grewin each year from 1996 to 2010
Predominantlyurban regions
Intermediateregions
Predominantlyrural regions
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
24
Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
4. Summary
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
25 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582625
Canada’s rural population is growing
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Population (millions)
Population centres (1,000 or more inhabitants)
Census rural areas (outside population centres)
Note: Census rural areas have fewer than 1,000 inhabitants and a population density below 400 people per square kilometre. Population centres have a population of 1,000 or more and a population density of 400 or more inhabitants per square kilomee tre.Data are tabulated in the boundaries applicable at the time of the given census.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1851 to 2011.
Rural minority in Canada after 1921
38 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582638
Canada’s rural population is growing
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1851to
1861
1861to
1871
1871to
1881
1881to
1891
1891to
1901
1901to
1911
1911to
1921
1921to
1931
1931to
1941
1941to
1951
1951to
1961
1961to
1971
1971to
1981
1981to
1991
1991to
2001
2001to
2011
10-year percent change in total population
The census rural population has grown in all but two decades since 1851, Canada
Census rural areas Population centres (1,000+ residents)
Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1951 - 2011.
39
The census rural population grew in the 1950s, 1970s, 1980s and 2001 to 2011
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1951 to1956
1956 to1961
1961 to1966
1966 to1971
1971 to1976
1976 to1981
1981 to1986
1986 to1991
1991 to1996
1996 to2001
2001 to2006
2006 to2011
Five-year percent change in total population
Census rural (outside population centres of 1,000 ormore inhabitants)
Population centres (1,000 or more inhabitants)
Note: Data are tabulated in the boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. Thus, the reported change is due to population growth or decline plus the net impact of the re-classification of population between population centres and census rural aeras.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1951 to 2011.
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582639
Canada’s rural population is growing
40 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582640
Canada’s rural population is growing
1951 to
1956
1956 to
1961
1961 to
1966
1966 to
1971
1971 to
1976
1976 to
1981
1981 to
1986
1986 to
1991
1991 to
1996
1996 to
2001
2001 to
2006
2006 to
2011
Newfoundland and Labrador 11 -2 0 -2 3 2 -0 13 -10 -9 -2 -2Prince Edward Island -7 3 -3 0 8 5 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -0Nova Scotia -1 14 -6 8 7 4 6 4 -2 -3 1 -2New Brunswick -0 7 -5 -10 18 6 5 5 -0 -4 -1 -0Quebec 2 -3 -7 -7 12 11 -0 7 -0 -8 5 3Ontario -3 8 -3 -1 14 1 3 12 -2 -3 4 -0Manitoba 1 -2 -5 -5 2 -4 0 3 3 0 4 2Saskatchewan -4 -6 -8 -11 -6 -1 -4 -6 -1 -4 -3 1Alberta -1 0 -7 -5 6 11 -4 5 8 3 4 4British Columbia 0 20 4 14 7 6 -1 7 4 -10 1 1Yukon 48 -0 -21 -5 19 -2 -0 38 7 -4 4 9Northwest Territories & Nunavut 11 -5 22 5 19 11 18 30 1 -9 1 -1Canada -0 3 -5 -2 9 5 1 7 -0 -4 3 1Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1951 to 2011.
5-year percent change in population in census rural areas
53
Nunavut and Prince Edward Island have more than 50% of their population living in census rural areas
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
British Columbia
Ontario
Alberta
Quebec
CANADA
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Yukon
Newfoundland and Labrador
Northwest Territories
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Nunavut
Prince Edward Island
Percent of total population living in census rural areas, 2011 (outside population centres of 1,000 or more inhabitants)Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 2011.
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582653
Canada’s rural population is growing
54 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582654
Canada’s rural population is growing
Year when census rural population
became a minority
Total population
in 2011
Population in census rural
areas in 2011
Percent of population residing in
census rural areas
in 2011
Provincial census rural population as a percent of
Canada's census rural population in
2011
Newfoundland and Labrador 1961 514,536 208,970 41 3.3Prince Edward Island still a majority 140,204 74,661 53 1.2Nova Scotia 1951 921,727 400,389 43 6.3New Brunswick 1966 to 1981 & 2006 751,171 356,692 47 5.6Quebec 1911 7,903,001 1,534,731 19 24.2Ontario 1911 12,851,821 1,806,036 14 28.5Manitoba 1951 1,208,268 333,554 28 5.3Saskatchewan 1971 1,033,381 343,398 33 5.4Alberta 1956 3,645,257 614,855 17 9.7British Columbia 1931 4,400,057 609,363 14 9.6Yukon 1971 33,897 13,335 39 0.2Northwest Territories 2006 41,462 16,901 41 0.3Nunavut still a majority 31,906 16,529 52 0.3Canada 1931 33,476,688 6,329,414 19 100.0Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1851 - 2011.
Distribution of census rural population by province, 2006
55
Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
4. Summary
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
56
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Population (millions)
In 2011, 6 million individuals were livingin rural and small town areas
Note: In 2006 and 2011, Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have 50,000 or more inhabitants in the built- core with a total population of 100,000 or more and Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core. Both CMAs and CAs include surrounding towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to thebuilt-up core. Rural and small town (RST) refers to the population outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and outside Census Agglomerations (CAs). The two data points for each year show the adjusted population count (due to reclassification) in order to make comparisons over time within constant boundaries.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1966 to 2011.
Census Agglomerations (CAs)
Rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas
Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs)
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582656
Canada’s rural population is growing
57 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582657
Canada’s rural population is growing
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Population (millions)
Rural and Small Town Population,Canada, 1966 to 2011
Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1966 to 2011.Rural and small town refers to the population outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and outside Census Agglomerations (CAs).
At each census, some rural areas have grown and then are re-classified as urban.
Thus, the starting point for the RST population for each inter-censal period is lower than the end point for the previous inter-censal period.
58
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
All LUCs CMAs CAs All RSTareas
Strong MIZ ModerateMIZ
Weak MIZ No MIZ RSTTerritories
CMAs grew more than CAs --rural areas with stronger metropolitan influence grew more
(except for the influence of Aboriginal population growth in the RST territories)
Note: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census.In 2006 and 2011. Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all
neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built -up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built -up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforce that commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; No metropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1991 to 2011.
Rural and small town (RST) areasLarger urban centres
Percent change in total population, 2006 to 2011
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582658
Canada’s rural population is growing
59
-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
101214161820222426
1966 to 1971 1971 to 1976 1976 to 1981 1981 to 1986 1986 to 1991 1991 to 1996 1996 to 2001 2001 to 2006 2006 to 2011
Percent change in population within constant boundaries1
Larger cities grew more than smaller cities and (except from 1976 to 1981)
smaller cities grew more than rural and small town areas, Canada
Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) Census Agglomerations (CAs) Rural and Small Town (RST) areas
1 Each 5-year change is tabulated within the boundaries applicable to the census at the end of the 5-year period.Note: In 2006 and 2011, CMAs have a total population of 100,000 or more (with a built-up core of 50,000 or more) and they include neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. CAs have an urban core of 10,000 or more persons plus neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. RST areas are outside the commuting zones of CMAs and CAs.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1971 to 2011.
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582659
Canada’s rural population is growing
62
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
All LUCs CMAs CAs All RSTareas
Strong MIZ ModerateMIZ
Weak MIZ No MIZ RSTTerritories
Percent of total population
In 2011, 18 percent of Canada's populationlived in rural and small town areas
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Note: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census.In 2006 and 2011. Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns and
municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built -up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforce that commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; No metropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1991 to 2011.
Larger urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areas
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582662
Canada’s rural population is growing
63
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Percent of Canada's population living in rural and small town areas
Share of population in rural and small town areas declined to 18% in 2011
Note: Rural and small town refers to the population outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census Agglomerations (CAs).Data are tabulated within the boundaries applicable at the time of the given census.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1971 to 2011.
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582663
Canada’s rural population is growing
64 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582664
Canada’s rural population is growing
0 20 40 60 80 100
Ontario
British Columbia
CANADA
Alberta
Quebec
Yukon
Manitoba
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Saskatchewan
Prince Edward Island
Newfoundland
Northwest Territories
Nunavut
Percent of total population residing in rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas
The share of Canada's population residing in RST areas declined from 36% in 1971 to 19% in 2011
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1971 to 2011.
91
Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
4. Summary
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
92
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Predominantlyurban regions
Intermediateregions
All predominantlyrural regions
Rural metro-adjacent regions
Rural non-metro-adjacent regions
Rural northernregions
Percent change of total population
Within predominantly rural regions, metro-adjacent regions have grown faster, Canada, 1996 to 2011
1996 to 2001 2001 to 2006 2006 to 2011
Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1981 to 2011. Predominantly rural regionsRayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-582692
Canada’s rural population is growing
103
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Predominantlyurban regions
Intermediateregions
All predominantlyrural regions
Rural metro-adjacent regions
Rural non-metro-adjacent regions
Rural northernregions
Total population (millions)
Growing population in predominantly rural regions,Canada
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
1996 2001 2006 2011
Note: Data are tabulated within constant 1996 boundaries.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1981 to 2011. Predominantly rural regions
Total (institutional plus non-institutional) population
Non-institutional population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826103
Canada’s rural population is growing
114
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Predominantlyurban regions
Intermediateregions
All predominantlyrural regions
Rural metro-adjacent regions
Rural non-metro-adjacent regions
Rural northernregions
Percent distribution of total population
In 2011, the share of population in predominantly rural regions was 29%, Canada
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
1996 2001 2006 2011
Note: Data are tabulated within constant 1996 boundaries.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1981 to 2011. Predominantly rural regions
Total (institutional plus non-institutional) population
Non-institutional population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826114
Canada’s rural population is growing
125
1996 2001 2006 2011Newfoundland and Labrador 54 53 51 49Prince Edward Island 100 100 100 100Nova Scotia 62 60 59 58New Brunswick 78 78 77 77Quebec 24 24 23 23Ontario 20 19 19 18Manitoba 44 44 45 45Saskatchewan 54 53 52 51Alberta 34 33 32 31British Columbia 42 41 40 39Yukon 100 100 100 100Northwest Territories 100 100 100 100Nunavut 100 100 100 100CANADA 31 30 30 29Source: Statistic Canada. Census of Population. 1996 to 2011.
Percent of population residing in predominantly rural regions
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826125
Canada’s rural population is growing
126
Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
4. Summary
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
127
Take home messages:
1. Rural Canada is growing not everywhere, but Rural Canada is growing The rural share of total population is declining because
Urban is growing faster; and due to
Successful rural development• At each census, some rural areas have grown and are re-
classified as urban.• Sometimes the re-classification is greater than the growth and
thus we sometimes see fewer rural people at the end of the period, compared to the number at the beginning of the period.
2. Rural Canada is:• growing near cities• growing less or declining away from cities• some remote areas are growing due to higher Aboriginal birth rates
and / or resource development.RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Canada’s rural population is growing
128
Canada’s rural population is growing:
A rural demography update to 2011
Ray D. BollmanRayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
613-297-5826
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net . . . 613-297-5826
Questions / Discussion
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