1 proposed revisions to deemed savings input assumptions for ptcs duct sealing and heat pump...
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Proposed Revisions to Deemed Savings Input Assumptions for PTCS Duct Sealing and Heat Pump Efficiency Upgrades and Duct Sealing,
Commissioning and Controls in Existing Homes
January 8, 2007
2
Issue
• Current deemed savings analysis assumes that existing single family and manufactured homes with heat pumps have the same average size as homes with any electric heating system
• Average home size assumptions– Pre-79 Single Family – 1600 sq.ft– Post79/Pre93 Single Family – 2200 sq.ft.– Post92 Single Family – 2300 sq.ft.– Existing Manufactured Home – 1020 sq.ft– New Manufactured Home – 1636 sq.ft..
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Average Size of Single Family Homes in Regional Heat Pump Savings Evaluation
Vintage FAF w/o CAC FAF w/ CAC Heat Pump All
Pre79 2,232 1,887 2,621 2,069
Post79/Pre93 2,276 1,710 2,406 2,278
Post92 2,333 1,963 2,376 2,271
All 2,263 1,883 2,477 2,146
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Average Pre79 Single Family Homes in Regional Heat Pump Evaluation Were Significantly Larger Than RTF
Assumes
2,6212,406 2,376
1600
2200 2300
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Pre79 Post79/Pre93 Post92
Vintage
Ho
use
Siz
e (
sq.ft
.)
Heat Pump RTF
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Average Size of Manufactured Homes in Regional Heat Pump Savings Evaluation
Vintage FAF w/o CAC FAF w/CACHeat Pump All
Pre79 1,662 NA 1,650 1,661
Post79/Pre93 1,706 1,716 1,881 1,728
Post92 1,758 1,887 NA 1,762
All 1,711 1,802 1,823 1,721
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Average Pre79 Manufactured Homes in Regional Heat Pump Evaluation Were Significantly Larger Than RTF
Assumes
1,650
1,8811800
1021
1636 1636
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Pre79 Post79/Pre93 Post92Vintage
Ho
me
Siz
e (
sq.ft
.)
Heat Pump RTF
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Do These Larger Homes Use Proportionately More Space Heating?
• Compared Regional Heat Pump Evaluation’s Estimated “Pre-Retrofit” Space Heating Use to RTF Assumptions– Problems
• Data for homes with pre-existing heat pump in Heating Zone 1/Cooling Zone 1 (sample primarily from Olympic Peninsula and OR Coast)
• Sample sizes are small or non-existent, especially for MH
– Issue: Should these homes usage be used to modify the RTF baseline (Pre-PTCS measure) space heating estimates
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Estimated Single Family Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit All Forced Air System Types
Heating Zone 1 Cooling Zone 1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
FAF Z1/Z1 FAF w/CAC Z1/Z1 HP Z1/Z1System Type
Pre
-Ret
rofit
SpH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/sq
.ft.
yr)
Pre79
Post79/Pre93
Post92
Were these heat pumps functioning?
9
Estimated Single Family Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit All Forced Air System Types
Heating Zone 1 Cooling Zone 2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
FAF Z1/Z2 FAF w/CAC Z1/Z2 HP Z1/Z2System Type
Pre
-Ret
rofit
SpH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/sq
.ft.
yr)
Pre79
Post79/Pre93
Post92
10
Estimated Single Family Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit All Forced Air System Types
Heating Zone 1 Cooling Zone 3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
FAF Z1/Z3 FAF w/CAC Z1/Z3 HP Z1/Z3System Type
Pre
-Ret
rofit
SpH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/sq
.ft.
yr)
Pre79
Post79/Pre93
Post92
Were these heat pumps functioning?
11
Estimated Single Family Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit Heat Pump Systems
Heating Zone 1 All Cooling Zones
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
HP Z1/Z1 HP Z1/Z2 HP Z1/Z3
Climate Zone
Pre
-Re
tro
fit S
pH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/s
q.ft
.yr)
Pre79 Post79/Pre93 Post92
Were these heat pumps functioning?
12
Estimated Single Family Heat Pump Home Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit –
Heating Zone 1 All Cooling Zones
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
HP Z1/Z1 HP Z1/Z2 HP Z1/Z3
Climate Zone
Pre
-Ret
rofit
SpH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/yr
)
Pre79
Post79/Pre93
Post92
Assuming Heat Pumps in Cooling Zone 1 Were Functioning Increases Single Family Baseline Consumptions Estimates –
Especially for More Recently Built Homes
House Vintage Pre79 - Excl CZ1
Pre79 - All
Post79/Pre93 - Excl CZ1
Post79/Pre93 - All
Post93 - Excl CZ1
Post93 - All
N 16 27 13 36 3 13
House Size 2,232 2,621 2,267 2,406 2,472 2,376
Space Heating Use (kWh)
10,460 11,589 7,014 10,619 6,240 12,279
Space Heating Use (kWh/sq.ft./yr)
4.7 4.4 3.1 4.4 2.5 5.2
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Estimated Manufactured Home Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit All Forced Air System Types
Heating Zone 1 Cooling Zone 1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
FAF Z1/Z1 FAF w/CAC Z1/Z1 HP Z1/Z1System Type
Pre
-Ret
rofit
SpH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/sq
.ft.
yr)
Pre79
Post79/Pre93
Post92
15
Estimated Manufactured Home Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit All Forced Air System Types
Heating Zone 1 Cooling Zone 2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
FAF Z1/Z2 FAF w/CAC Z1/Z2 HP Z1/Z2System Type
Pre
-Ret
rofit
SpH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/sq
.ft.
yr)
Pre79
Post79/Pre93
Post92
16
Estimated Manufactured Home Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit Heat Pump Systems
Heating Zone 1 All Cooling Zones
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
HP Z1/Z1 HP Z1/Z2 ALL HP
Climate Zone
Pre
-Ret
rofit
SpH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/sq
.ft.y
r)
Pre79
Post79/Pre93
17
Estimated Manufactured Home Heat Pump Home Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit – Heating Zone 1 All Cooling Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
HP Z1/Z1 HP Z1/Z2 All Zone 1
Climate Zone
Pre
-Ret
rofit
SpH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/yr
)
Pre79
Post79/Pre93
Post92
18
Single Family Heat Pump Zone 1 Space Heating Evaluation Estimates Compared to Current RTF Assumptions (kWh/sq.ft.)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
HP Z1/Z1 HP Z1/Z2 HP Z1/Z3 HP Zone 1 -All Cooling
Zones
HP Zone 1Cooling
Zones 2 & 3
RTF
Climate Zone
An
nu
al U
se (
kWh
/sq
.ft./y
r) Pre79 Post79/Pre93 Post93
19
Single Family Heat Pump Zone 1 Space Heating Evaluation Estimates Compared to Current RTF Assumptions (kWh/sq.ft.)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
HP Zone 1 - All CoolingZones
HP Zone 1 Cooling Zones 2 &3
RTF
Climate Zone
An
nu
al U
se (
kWh
/sq
.ft./y
r)
Pre79 Post79/Pre93 Post93
20
Estimated Single Family Heat Pump Zone 1 Space Heating Evaluation Estimates Compared to Current
RTF Assumptions
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Annual Use - w/Cool Zone1
Annual Use - w/o CoolZone 1
RTF - Zone 1
Climate Zone
Pre
-Re
tro
fit S
pH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/y
r)
Pre79
Post79/Pre93
Post93
21
Manufactured Home Heat Pump Zone 1 Space Heating Evaluation Estimates Compared to Current RTF Assumptions
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
All Zone 1 RTFClimate Zone
Pre
-Re
tro
fit S
pH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/s
q.ft
.yr) Pre79
Post79/Pre93Post92
Note: Post92 Construction use estimate from RCDP
22
Estimated Manufactured Home Heat Pump Zone 1 Space Heating Evaluation Estimates Compared to
Current RTF Assumptions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
All Zone 1 RTF
Climate Zone
Pre
-Re
tro
fit S
pH
t-N
AC
(kW
h/y
r) Pre79
Post79/Pre93
Post92
Note: Post92 Construction use estimate from RCDP
23
Recommendation – Single Family
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Pre79 Construction Post79/Pre93 Post93 Construction
Ann
ual S
pace
Hea
ting
Use
(kW
h)
Evaluation Estimate
Current RTF
Proposed RTF
24
Recommendation – Manufactured Homes
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Pre94 Post93 NonSGC SGC/Energy Star
Ann
ual S
pace
Hea
ting
Use
(kW
h)
Evaluation Estimate
Current RTF
Proposed RTF
Note: Estimated use of SGC/Energy Star heat pump homes derivedFrom RCDP analysis which found annual use of 2.6 – 3.2 kWh/sf/yr.
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Impact of Revised Base Case Space Heating Use Assumptions on PTCS Measure Cost-Effectiveness
• Some changes in status of any heat pump upgrade measures– Upgrades for all vintages of MH in all climates zones are now
cost-effective, including SGC/NEEM– Upgrades for all vintages and foundation types of SF homes
in all climates zones are now cost-effective, including half/full basements in Heating Zone 1
• PTCS Duct sealing, system commissioning & controls measure is now cost-effective for SGC/NEEM homes with existing or newly installed heat pumps in all climates zones
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