2011 shift of cybernetics...a brief history of cybernetics • created in the u.s. during and after...

THESHIFTOFCYBERNETICSFROMTHEUSTOEUROPE

Vitaliy Aretinskiy,MinChoandStuartUmplebyTheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity

Washington,DC20052

Abriefhistoryofcybernetics

• CreatedintheU.S.duringandafterWorldWarII

• ManykeyscientistswerefromEurope• Whentheydied,cyberneticsresearchshiftedbacktoEurope

• CyberneticsresearchhasdeclinedintheU.S.butisgrowinginEurope

Theimportanceofcybernetics

• Whereasphysicsisageneraltheoryofmatterandenergyrelationships,cyberneticsisageneraltheoryofinformation-processinganddecision-making

• Cyberneticscanbeviewedasthefoundationofthesocialsciencesinsomewhatthesamewaythatphysicsisthefoundationoftheengineeringdisciplines

WhycyberneticsprospersinEurope

• AmericansandEuropeanslookformeaningindifferentdirections

• Americansreason“down”tofindmeaninginexamplesandapplications

• Europeansreason“up”tofindmeaninginlargercategoriesorsocialcontext

• Hence,Europeansseegeneraltheoriesasimportantanduseful.Americanstendnotto

Testthehypothesis

• TotestthehypothesisthattherehasbeenashiftofcyberneticsresearchtoEurope,welookedattheleadauthorsofarticlesinthejournalCyberneticsandSystems from1988to2007infiveyearintervals

• Table1showsthenumberofarticlesfromeachcountry

• Table2groupsthecountriesintoregions

Table1.Numberofarticlespervolumeandpercountry (“CyberneticsandSystems” journal)

Table2. Countriesgroupedbyregion (“CyberneticsandSystems” journal)

Testingthehypothesis

• Table3showsthenumberofarticlesfromeachregionineachofthe5yearschosen

• Figure1showsagraphofthenumberofarticlesbyregion

• Table4showsthepercentageincreaseordecreaseforeachregionfrom1988to2007

Table3.Numberofarticlespervolumeandperregion(“CyberneticsandSystems” journal)

Figure1. Articlespervolumebyregionovertime (“CyberneticsandSystems” journal)

Table4.Activitychangesbetween1988and2007inabsolutevalueandpercentage(“CyberneticsandSystems” journal)

Resultsoftestofhypothesis

• InthejournalCyberneticsandSystemsNorthAmericawastheleadingcontributortocyberneticsresearchin1988

• Europewassecond,Asiathird,theMiddleEastfourthandLatinAmericafifth

• In2007EuropewasfirstandAsiasecond• N.AmericaandtheMiddleEastweretiedforthirdandLatinAmericawasfourth

Furthertestsofthehypothesis

TofurthertestthehypothesisthattherehasbeenashiftofcyberneticsresearchtoEurope,welookedatthenationalitiesoftheleadauthorsofarticlesintwoadditionaljournals:Kybernetesand SystemResearchandBehavioralScience

“Kybernetes”journal• Welookedatasecondjournal,Kybernetes,from1974to2010inthreeyearintervals

• Table5groupsthecountriesintoregions• Table6showsthenumberofarticlespervolumeandpercountry

• Table7showsthenumberofarticlespervolumeandperregion

• Figure2showsthenumberofarticlespervolumeandperregionovertime

• Table8showsthepercentageincreaseordecreaseforeachregionfrom1974to2010

Table5. Countriesgroupedbyregion

Table6.Numberofarticlespervolumeandpercountry(“Kybernetes”journal)

Table7.Numberofarticlespervolumeandperregion(“Kybernetes”journal)

Figure2.Articlespervolumebyregionovertime(“Kybernetes”journal)

Table8.Activitychangesbetween1974and2010inabsolutevalueandpercentage (“Kybernetes”journal)

“SystemsResearchandBehavioralScience”journal

• Wethenlookedatathirdjournal,SystemsResearchandBehavioralScience,from1998to2010inthreeyearintervals

• Table9showsthenumberofarticlespervolumeandpercountry

• Table10showsthenumberofarticlespervolumeandperregion

• Figure3showsthenumberofarticlespervolumeandperregionovertime

• Table11showsthepercentageincreaseordecreaseforeachregionfrom1998to2010

Table9.Numberofarticlespervolumeandpercountry(“SystemsResearchandBehavioralScience”journal)

Table10.Numberofarticlespervolumeandperregion(“SystemsResearchandBehavioralScience”journal)

Figure3.Articlespervolumebyregionovertime(“SystemsResearchandBehavioralScience”journal)

Table11.Activitychangesbetween1988and2010inabsolutevalueandpercentage(“SystemsResearchandBehavioralScience”journal)

Combinationofdatafrombothjournals

• Table12showsthenumberofarticlespervolumeandpercountryforbothjournals

• Table13showsthenumberofarticlespervolumeandperregion

• Figure4showsthenumberofarticlespervolumeandperregionovertime

• Table14showsthepercentageincreaseordecreaseforeachregionfrom1974to2010forbothjournals

Table12.Numberofarticlespervolumeandpercountry

Table13.Numberofarticlespervolumeandperregion

Figure4. Articlespervolumebyregionovertime

Table14.Activitychangesbetween1974and2010inabsolutevalueandpercentage

Resultsofthefurthertestofthehypothesis

• InthesetwoadditionaljournalsNorthAmericacontinuestofallbehindEuropeinproducingarticlesinthefieldofcybernetics

• AsiarisesstronglyinrecentyearsandappearslikelytoovertakeEurope

Implicationsoftheshiftofcyberneticsresearch

• Sincecyberneticsprovidesageneraltheoryofinformationprocessingandregulation,itcanhelptoguidethecreationofinformationsocieties

• Reflexivity,aconceptcentraltocybernetics,isusedinexplanationsofboomandbustcycles

• Cyberneticsprovidesatheoryofregulation,forexamplemanagementofabusinessfirmorregulationofbusinessbygovernmentorregulationofaninternationalfinancialsystem

Anincreasingneedforsystemsthinking

• Severalcurrenttrendsareremindingpeopleoftheneedforsystemsthinking– Climatechange– Thefinancialcrisis– Continuedpopulationgrowth– Resourcedepletion

• Cyberneticsandsystemstheoryprovidetheoriesforunderstandingmulti-disciplinaryproblems

Recommendationsforsciencepolicy

• Toaidincreatinganexpandedtheoryofcommunicationandadaptation,supportforcyberneticsresearchintheU.S.couldberesumed

• Educationalprogramstoteachcyberneticscouldbeestablishedatseveraluniversitiesinawaythatissustainableindiscipline-orienteduniversities

Contactinformation

StuartUmplebyandVitaliyAretinskiySchoolofBusinessTheGeorgeWashingtonUniversityWashington,DC20052umpleby@gwu.edu

PresentedattheAnnualWashingtonBusinessResearchForum

Washington,DCJanuary7-8,2011