2012 wildfire season outlook

2012 Wildfire Season Outlook

“Recent” Wildfire HistoryWinter 2001-2002 – VERY DRY

followed by the Summer 2002 – Colorado

Hayman Fire Coal Seam FireMissionary Ridge FireBig FishNumerous other fires

2001-02 Versus 2011-12SNOTEL Annual Precip. % as of 5-

10-12 01-02

11-12Yampa & White River Basin: 67 % 69 %Upper Colorado River Basin: 61 % 66 %Gunnison River Basin: 60 % 73 %Dolores/San Miguel R. Basin: 53 % 81 % Missionary Ridge – Summer 2002

Gunnison River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May

10

Upper Colorado River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May

10

Yampa-White River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May

10

San Miguel River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May

10

Dolores River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May

10

San Juan River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May

10

SNOTEL Current S.W.E.

Precipitation % of Normal10/1/11 – 5/1/12

Based on all precipitation reporting sites

Soil Moisture % of Normal10/1/11 – 5/6/12

Historical ENSO Influence ?Winter 2001-2002 - NeutralWinter 2011-2012 - La Nina

2nd consecutive La Nina winter

Historical ENSO Influence ?Since 1900, there have been 11 back-to-back La Nina wintersIn western Colorado...

9 events - 2nd year drier than first

2 events - 2nd year wetter than first

(early 1950s & mid 1970s)Dr. Klaus Wolter, NOAA Research Scientist

Drought Assessment 5/8/12

Drought Assessment – 5/8/12

May 2012 Climate Outlook

Precipitation

Temperatures

Early Summer 2012

Precipitation

Temperatures

Late Summer-Early Fall 2012

Monsoon Season

Precipitation

Temperatures

Winter 2012-2013 ???

“…equal chances of Neutral or [weak] El Niño conditions…“

Climate Prediction Center 5-3-12

NWS Grand JunctionGeared Up for Active Fire WX

Season

wx.gov/gjt