2040 rtp climate adaptation workshop (9.17.2012)

Chattanooga-Hamilton County/N. GA Transportation Planning Organization

2040 Regional Transportation Plan

Climate Change & Transportation Resiliency

September 17, 2012

AGENDA & WORKSHOP GOALSModule 1: Welcome and Introductions

Why put Adaptation in the RTP?

• Transportation projects in the RTP will need to withstand climate stressors

• The transportation network produced by the RTP will need to provide redundancy of routes for extreme weather events

• Overlap with other sections of RTP– Maintenance/State of Good Repair– Safety/Security

• Adaptation strategies contribute to Goals and Objectives of the 2040 RTP

Within CommunityCommunity to Region

Region to Region

Goal: BUILD AND MAINTAIN SAFE AND HEALTHY COMMUNITIES

Objectives:• Support walkable and bicycle-friendly

communities that promote safe, non-motorized connections to community

resources• Provide incentives for complete streets

project design • Encourage investments anchored in integrated transportation and land use planning, that support desired community character•Improve safety through improved operations, preventative maintenance, and ADA compliance• Prioritize investments in

areas where local land use and development regulations support healthy, safe communities• Prioritize investment that

improves multimodal access to existing or planned transit hubs or that fills gaps in existing multimodal system•Encourage connected street network

Goal: CONNECT COMMUNITIES TO OPPORTUNITIES IN THE REGION BY PROVIDING MULTIMODAL TRAVEL OPTIONS TO ACTIVITY AND ECONOMIC CENTERS

Objectives:• Preserve, maintain and improve existing infrastructure before adding new capacity• Provide incentives for complete streets project design• Encourage corridor improvements anchored in integrated transportation and land use planning, that support desired community character• Improve mobility and support economic development by providing expanded set of travel options, with emphasis on public transit• Improve travel time reliability through improved system operations• Incentive corridor protection plans

Goal: GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY THROUGH STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN CRITICAL REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Objectives:• Preserve, maintain and improve existing infrastructure before adding new capacity• Support continued economic growth of the region by improving intermodal connections that reduce delay for both people and goods• Reduce delay on critical regional thoroughfares with minimal impact to community, historic and environmental resources• Improve the efficiency and reliability of freight, cargo and goods movement by reducing delay on corridors critical to freight movement• Improve travel time reliability through improved system operations

GAAL

KY

Note: Draft goals and objectives recently endorsed by TCC with small modifications. To be presented to TPO Board on Oct. 16

2040 RTP Draft Goals and Objectives

Agenda

1. Introduction2. Extreme Weather3. Climate Futures4. Transportation Resiliency5. Critical Infrastructure• Lunch6. Vulnerability Assessment7. Adaptation Strategies8. Next RTP Cycle9. Wrap Up

THE PAST AND PRESENT: WEATHER IN THE CHATTANOOGA REGION

Module 2: Extreme Weather

Extreme Events in the Southeast

• Heavy Rainfall and Floods• Extreme Heat and Cold• Droughts• Winter Storms• Thunderstorms and Tornadoes

• A Note: Climate vs. Weather

Source: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment

SE Regional Climate Observations

• Climate variability has increased across much of the region– more exceptionally wet and dry summers compared to the middle

part of the 20th century• Increases in extreme precipitation, along with urbanization,

has increased runoff, increasing risk of flash and river flooding• Since 1970s, temperatures have steadily increased, especially

during the summer season – 2001-2010 is the warmest decade on record– Upward trend in extreme events over past 3 decades

Source: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment

SE Precipitation Variability

Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) Historic Climate Trends, NCDC data

SE Extreme Precipitation Trends

• Frequency of extreme precipitation increasing in the SE

1-day 20% chance5-day 20% chance

Source: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment

Chattanooga Extreme Precip

• 4 extreme events since 1977 within NOAA-estimated 50 year average recurrence interval (the 50-year 24 hr event)

• 2011 rainfall event exceeds top range for 1000-year eventData: GHCN Daily Lovell AP; Recurrence intervals: NOAA Atlas 14, Volume 2, Version 3

Depicts 10-year rainfall events or greater only

SE Temperature Variability

* Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) Historic Climate Trends, NCDC data

Chattanooga Extreme Temp

19281931

19341937

19401943

19461949

19521955

19581961

19641967

19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

# Days >= 95F Moving average (# Days >= 95F) Avg. Days >=95F

Days

>=

95 F

Data: GHCN Daily Lovell AP

$ Billion Weather Disasters, 1980-2005

• Since 1980, the SE US has experienced more billion dollar ‐weather disasters than any other region in the country

Disaster Declarations by Decade

• Declarations on the rise in TN and GASource: Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP)

Chattanooga Disaster Declarations• Hamilton County, TN,

regionally unique in susceptibility to flooding

• All counties vulnerable to severe storm events

Source: FEMA

Declared Disasters, 2000-2012*

Year Incidents Season

2003 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING Spring

2004 SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING Fall

2011 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING Spring

2011 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING Spring

*Hamilton County. Source: FEMA.

Flood of 2003 (1/3)

• Heaviest rains in McMinn County (12+ in) from May 5-8• In Chattanooga:

– Peak 24 hour rain fall in 2-year recurrence range– Peak 4 day rainfall in 50-year recurrence range

• Record flooding on the South Chickamauga Creek• Near (modern) record flooding on the Tennessee River

Source: National Weather Service, Morristown , TN

Flood of 2003 (2/3)

Flood of 2003 (3/3)

• Widespread road closures, damage, and evacuations• Damage in Chattanooga region was estimated at $17 millionPhoto credit: National Weather Service, Morristown , TN

2004 Flooding Events (Ivan)

• South Chickamauga Creek reached 25.1 feet, 7.1 feet above flood stage, causing evacuations, road closures, airport floodingSource: Hamilton County Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan, 2012. Photo Credit: The Chattanoogan.com

2011 Flooding Events

• Feb 28 - March 1: Declared disaster• April 25 - 28: Declared disaster• September: Record rainfall

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CHATTANOOGA REGIONJOANNE LOGAN, UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE

Module 4a: Climate Change Background

“Greenhouse” Effect

“Greenhouse” Effect

Mercury

2010 CO2 Concentration: 390

CO2 Concentration

400

320

340

360

380

300

180

200

220

240

260

280

Temp. in F°

800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0

Age (years BP)

CO2 (

ppm

v)

After 35 more years at the current rate of increase

Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

10 Hottest Years on Record, USA

2012 Statement of AMS (1/3)

• American Meteorological Society• Based on the peer-reviewed scientific literature• Warming of the climate system now is unequivocal,

according to many different kinds of evidence• The effects of this warming are especially evident in the

planet’s polar regions • Most of the world’s glaciers are in retreat• Globally averaged sea level has risen by about 17 cm (7

inches) in the 20th century, with the rise accelerating since the early 1990s

Greenland Seasonal Ice Melt

2012 Statement of AMS (2/3)

• Very heavy precipitation events have increased over the last 50 years throughout the U.S.

• Freezing levels are rising in elevation, with rain occurring more frequently instead of snow at mid-elevations of western mountains

• Spring maximum snowpack is decreasing, snowmelt occurs earlier, and the spring runoff that supplies over two-thirds of western U.S. streamflow is reduced.

• Earlier springs, longer frost-free periods, longer growing seasons, and shifts in natural habitats and in migratory patterns of birds and insects

2012 Statement of AMS (3/3)

• Climate is always changing• Many of the observed changes are beyond what can

be explained by the natural variability of the climate • Dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the

past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide

Emission Scenarios to 2025

Emission Scenarios to 2100

General Circulation Models (GCMs)•GCMs represent physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface•3-D grids over the globe, 250-600km, 10-20 vertical layers, up to 30 ocean layers•May be statistically downscaled to consider regional scale impacts

Source and image credit: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Source: Shepherd and Mote, U of Georgia

July Avg. Temps (2010-60, A1B)

Change in Heat Stress Days

Change in Heavy Precip Events

Source: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment

POTENTIAL FUTURE EXTREMES IN THE CHATTANOOGA REGION

Module 4b: Climate Change Background

DAYTON 2SE CLEVELAND FLTR PLT CHATTANOOGA AP DALTON BRIDGEPORT 5 NW0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Projected Number of Days 95 F or above

BLB1_2040A1B_2040A2_2040B1_2070A1B_2070A2_2070

Num

ber o

f Day

s/Yr

Extreme Temperatures (>95°)

Extreme Temperature (>100°)

DAYTON 2SE CLEVELAND FLTR PLT CHATTANOOGA AP DALTON BRIDGEPORT 5 NW0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Projected Number of Days 100 F or above

BLB1_2040A1B_2040A2_2040B1_2070A1B_2070A2_2070

Num

ber o

f Day

s/Yr

41

Days Above 95F

35 - 40

Less than 15

15 - 20

20 - 25

25 - 30

30 - 35

40 - 45

45 - 50

Extreme Precipitation (50-year)

•Only minor change of absolute amounts (e.g., only about 3% maximum increase for Chattanooga AP)•Return periods of today’s 50-year event likely to shrink (on average every 42-45 years)

43

Less than 5.50

5.51 - 6.00

6.01 - 6.50

6.51 - 7.00

7.01 - 7.50

7.51 - 8.00

8.01 - 8.50

Above 8.50

24hr (daily) Rainfall Total (in)

Extreme Precipitation (100-year)

•Only minor change of absolute amounts (e.g., only about 3.3% maximum increase for Chattanooga AP)•Return periods of today’s 100-year event likely to shrink (on average every 82-87 years)•Conservative case: Using a full range of GCMs adds ¼ inch/24-hours in 2070 (recurrence interval of 66 years for today’s event)•By 2100, the high range adds > ½ inch/24-hours, recurrence interval is 52.5 yrs

45

Less than 5.50

5.51 - 6.00

6.01 - 6.50

6.51 - 7.00

7.01 - 7.50

7.51 - 8.00

8.01 - 8.50

Above 8.50

24hr (daily) Rainfall Total (in)

TRANSPORTATION RESILIENCYModule 4: Assessing What is At Risk and How to Adapt

Discussion Areas

• Survey of climate impacts on various transportation assets by mode – what are the consequences? – Framework for understanding categories of impact– Documented impacts from the literature

• Determining timeframes, risks and consequences– Lifespan of assets– Climate hazard protection windows

• Introducing adaptation

Impacts from Extreme Weather

48Source: Travis Long / The News & Observer via AP; Steve Taylor Sheriffs Dept

• Roadways

Impacts from Extreme Weather

• Bridges

Source: WSDOT; Police Lieutenant Mickey Garner, in Nashville

Categories of Impact

50

NO IMPACT •No impact, either infrastructure was able to withstand impact, or climate stressor did not affect the asset

DISRUPT•Temporary closure of facility

DETERIOR-ATION •Over time, a facility is affected by more frequent occurrences of

extreme events and asset begins to deteriorate

DAMAGE•The facility was unable to withstand impact, and is damaged

Impacts from Extreme Weather

51Source: Nashville MTA; US Volpe Center

• Transit

Impacts from Extreme Weather

52Source: George Hornal, TDOT

• Marine Facilities, Freight and Intermodal

Impacts from Extreme Weather

53Source: George Hornal, TDOT ; NYCAviation.com

• Airports

Exercise: Climate Impacts

• What impacts from extreme weather and potential future climate do you face?– A heavy rainfall event can result in flooding (sometimes from culverts

and bridges being blocked with debris), erosion, rock falls, and scour around bridgeheads and footings. If you were experiencing severe flood conditions, what would your biggest concerns be?

– During heat waves, deterioration could impact certain infrastructure components (asphalt on highways, concrete bridge joints). If you were experiencing an excessive number of high heat days, what would your biggest concerns be?

Impacts from Temperature (1/2)

55Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research Council (2008).

Climate Effect Impacts on Infrastructure and Operations

Increases in very hot days and heat waves (higher high temperatures, increased duration of heat waves)

•Asphalt degradation and pavement rutting, resulting in possible short-term loss of public access or increased congestion of sections of road and highway during repair and replacement•Increased thermal expansion of bridge joints and paved surfaces, causing possible degradation•Concerns regarding pavement integrity, traffic-related rutting and migration of liquid asphalt, blow outs from concrete paving•Maintenance and construction costs for roads and bridges; stress on bridge integrity due to temperature expansion of concrete joints, steel, asphalt, protective cladding, coats, and sealants•Limits on periods of construction activity, and more nighttime work•Vehicle failures from overheating and tire degradation

Impacts from Temperature (2/2)

56Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research Council (2008).

Climate Effect Impacts on Infrastructure and Operations

Decreases in very cold days

Later onset of seasonal freeze and earlier onset of seasonal thaw

•Regional changes in snow and ice removal costs, environmental impacts from salt and chemical use•Fewer cold-related restrictions for maintenance workers

•Heaving/potholes (due to freeze-thaw)•Fatigue cracking (cold temperature)•Changes in seasonal weight restrictions•Changes in seasonal fuel requirements•Improved mobility and safety associated with a reduction in winter weather•Longer construction season in colder areas

Impacts from Precipitation (1/2)

57Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research Council (2008).

Climate Effect

Impacts on Infrastructure and Operations

Increases in intense precipitation events

•Areas in which flooding is already common will face more frequent and severe problems•Increases in weather-related delays and traffic disruptions•Increased flooding of evacuation routes•Increases in flooding of roadways and tunnels, culvert failures•Increases in road washout, landslides, and mudslides that damage roadways•Drainage systems likely to be overloaded more frequently and severely, causing backups and street flooding•If soil moisture levels become too high, structural integrity of roads, bridges, and tunnels (especially where they are already under stress) could be compromised•Standing water may have adverse effects on road base•Increased peak streamflow could affect scour rates and influence the size requirement for bridges and culverts•Driver accidents increased/driver safety compromised

Impacts from Precipitation (2/2)

58Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research Council (2008).

Climate Effect

Impacts on Infrastructure and Operations

Changes in seasonal precipitation and stream flow patterns

•Benefits for safety and reduced interruptions if frozen precipitation shifts to rainfall•Corrosion (from increased surface salts due to less precipitation)•Increased risk of floods, landslides, gradual failures and damage to roads if precipitation changes from snow to rain in winter and spring thaws; more erosion•Vegetation failure (due to drought)•Increased maintenance and replacement costs of road infrastructure•Short-term loss of public access or increased congestion to sections of road and highway from road closures and disruptions•Changes in access to floodplains during construction season and mobilization periods•Changes in wetland location and the associated natural protective services that wetlands offer to infrastructure

Why Consider Adaptation?

• Planning for the future can benefit the present • Proactive planning is more effective and less costly

than responding reactively to climate change impacts as they happen

• Thinking strategically can reduce future risks• Thinking strategically can increase future benefits

60

0ft 1ft 2ft

3ft 4ft

Existing levees

Terraced leveesTerraced brackish levee

Enhance existing wetlands, realign levees

Lead Time Effective

Realign functionsRealign functions

Threshold

5ft

Decision

Source: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/1904/500/

Planning and Adaptation

Approach to Risk and Adaptation

61

• Thresholds vs. frequencies• What is the expected lifespan of the asset?• What climate hazards may impact the asset, and in

what timeframe?• Which adaptation strategies are potentially

applicable?

Est. Average Lifespan of Asset

Mode Infrastructure Lifetime (years)Surface Transportation Pavement 10-20

Bridges 50-100

Culverts 30-45

Tunnels 50-100

Railroad Tracks Up to 50

Marine Locks and dams 50

Docks and port terminals 40-50

Aviation Runway pavements 10

Terminals 40-50

Pipelines Pipelines 100

62Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research Council (2008).

Timing for Strategies

63Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research Council (2008).

• Planning– Up to 25 years

• Design, Engineering and Project Development– Can be >10 years design– Able to leverage funding and flexibility for expected changes

• Maintenance– Approx 1-10 years decisions– Limited funding and flexibility

• Operations– Day-to-day decisions– Come up with Plan B

Adaptation Investment Choices

64

Planning•RTP Development•Strategic Abandonment/Redundancy•Emergency Evaluation Planning•Hazard Mitigation Planning

Design•Standards and Specifications•Engineering for Resiliency•Advanced Materials•Protecting and Hardening

Operations•Traffic Operations•ITS•Maintenance•Emergency Response

Example adaptation strategies

• For example…– Flood barriers– Emergency detours– Drainage maintenance

Source: Dan Henry, Chattanooga Times Free Press; Associated Press; FHWA

Interactive Exercise: Adaptation

• Earlier, we listed out the types of impacts from increased precipitation and temperature.

• Now, we will brainstorm adaptation strategies for the various stressors into categories of planning, design and operations.

• We will summarize this information for you to use in Module 7.

THE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION NETWORK: CRITICALITY

Module 5: Criticality Assessment

The regional transportation system

A mature, multi-modal system• Roadways• Freight rail• Airport• Intermodal freight facilities• Marine facilities

Mode TotalHighways (Miles) Interstate 50.2US Highway 126.4State Highway 242.4Other 4030.1Railroads (Miles) Class I 171.3Other 50.2Intermodal Facilities 16Airports/heliports CHA/Lovell 1Other airports 5Heliports 3Marine (terminals/docks) 31

Elements: Roadways

Elements: Rail

Elements: Multimodal

Role of Transportation System

• Brainstorm: What is the role of the transportation system in:– Your communities?– Your region?– Beyond …?

Transportation “Values”

• What attributes do you value in your transportation system (what do you want it to provide)?

Criticality: Jobs and Pop. Density

Criticality: Public Services

Criticality: Volumes

Criticality: Planned Projects

Critical Assets

• Which assets are critical to fulfilling transportation roles and values in:– Your communities?– Your region?– Beyond…?

Criticality: Your turn!

Roads & Bridges

Rail

Air

Maritime

Intermodal

THE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION NETWORK: VULNERABILITY

Module 6: Vulnerability Assessment

Results from Criticality

• Map of critical places generated over lunch

• Feedback from small groups

Roads & Bridges

Rail

Air

Maritime

Intermodal

Votes Received>=3 <3

What makes an asset vulnerable?

• Stressors– Extreme precipitation (flash floods, river floods)– Extreme temperatures– Hurricanes/tropical storms, tornadoes, other high winds,

blizzards, wildfires, etc.

What makes an asset vulnerable?

• Impacts– Is the asset exposed to the stressor, will it be in the future?

• Some stressors are map-able (e.g. flooding)• Others are less spatially explicit (e.g. temperature)

– What impacts could occur, what are the likely consequences?• Damage?• Disruption?• Deterioration?• No Impact?

– How frequently could impacts occur, with what probability?• How might these frequencies change in the future?

Vulnerability: Priorities for Action?EXAMPLE Today 2040 and beyond*

# Asset Stressor Impacts Cons Freq Cons Freq

1 Bridge Extreme precip

Scour Damage 25 yr+ ++ +++

Overtop Approach

Disrupt 10 yr+ ++ ++

Extreme Temp

Expansion Disrupt 3x yr +++

•Future consequences and frequencies may grow worse (or get better) due to changes in condition, climate, or external factors (e.g. change in volumes)

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND THE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN

Module 7: Developing Adaptation Strategies for the CHCRPA RTP

NOTE: Due to time constraints, adaptation was combined with the vulnerability module. This set of slides was not delivered during the workshop.

Reminder: Why Adaptation?

• Planning for the future can benefit the present • Proactive planning is more effective and less costly

than responding reactively to climate change impacts as they happen

• Thinking strategically can reduce future risks• Thinking strategically can increase future benefits

Interactive Exercise: Strategies

• Now we will develop adaptation strategies for the examples we generated in the previous module.

• Note: remember you can refer to your “cheat sheet.”

Interactive Exercise: Strategies

• Process for selecting adaptation strategies– What is the expected lifespan of the asset?– Which climate hazards may impact the asset, and

in what timeframe?– Which adaptation strategies are potentially

applicable?• Implementation feasibility• Effectiveness

Strategy FrameworkEXAMPLE Today 2040 and beyond*

# Asset Stressor Impacts Cons Freq Cons Freq

1 Bridge Extreme precip

Scour Damage 25 yr+ ++ +++

Overtop Approach

Disrupt 10 yr+ ++ ++

Extreme Temp

Expansion Disrupt 3x yr +++

Which adaptation strategies are potentially applicable?• Implementation feasibility• Effectiveness

PREPARING FOR THE NEXT PLANNING CYCLE

Module 8: Monitoring, Evaluation, Feedback

NOTE: Due to time constraints, this set of slides was not delivered during the workshop.

How to put into RTP? (1/3)

• Flag projects in 2040 RTP that are identified as being potentially vulnerable– Work with project sponsors to incorporate adaptation

strategies into project design, if necessary– Define new transportation projects that enhance

transportation resiliency

How to put into RTP? (2/3)

• Incorporate into performance measures– New measure: Does project provide network

redundancy for a critical/vulnerable transportation asset?

– Adjustment factor for scoring of other measures• Example: Project addresses existing bridge deficiency (extra

points if asset is critical/vulnerable)

How to put into RTP? (3/3)

• Related planning processes that address more detailed adaptation strategies– Design for resiliency as part of TIP project selection

procedures?

How to continue with next RTP?

• Update criticality/vulnerability assessment as new data/better models become available– US Army Corps hydrological model (HEC-RTS) with slider

bar to see how floodplains change for potential rainfall events

– Travel demand model updated each cycle• Incorporate new projects/adaptation strategies as

they are developed• Refine integration into RTP performance

measures/TIP selection criteria

THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION!Module 9: Closing and Wrap Up