2.1. andrew curry

Learning from the UK’s Intelligent Infrastructure ScenariosAndrew Curry, The Futures Company

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Foresight’s Intelligent Infrastructure Futures

• Foresight: takes a long-term view of long-term issues where science and technology can be influential

• Intelligent Infrastructure Systems project was sponsored by the Department of Transport, which still uses the scenarios as part of its long-term thinking

• The project combined drivers analysis, scenarios development, systems work, and socio-technical studies, as well as ‘state of science’ reviews from leading academics - social scientists as well as technologists

• The output is in the public domain and can be freely downloaded: http://www.foresight.gov.uk/OurWork/CompletedProjects/IIS/KeyInfo/Index.asp

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Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure

Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure

High Impact Transport

Low impact Transport

Good Intentions

Urban Colonies

Perpetual Motion

Tribal Trading

Summarising the scenarios

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Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure

Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure

High Impact Transport

Low impact Transport

Perpetual Motion

Technology applied

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Designing out demandAccepting of Intelligent

Infrastructure

Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure

High Impact Transport

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Urban Colonies

‘At a gross density of 50 dph, 5,000 dwellings can be within a 10 minute walk of public services, schools and viable public transport.’MJP Architects, ‘Sustainable Suburbia’

Low impact Transport

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The impact of resource limits

Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure

High Impact Transport

Low impact Transport

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Tribal Trading

Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure

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Reduction through rationing Accepting of Intelligent

Infrastructure

Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure

High Impact Transport

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Economic Insecurity

Good Intentions

Low impact Transport

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Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure

Resistant to IntelligentInfrastructure

High Impact Transport

Low impact Transport

Economic Insecurity

Good Intentions Perpetual Motion

Tribal Trading Urban Colonies

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Reflecting on the scenarios

• The only reliable way to reduce personal transport demand is to focus on access not mobility – this takes a generation– but it is happening

• Technology can help - but it needs to be applied to reducing demand for private personal transport– otherwise it reduces equity

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Reflecting on the scenarios

• So far reducing personal transport use has only happened generally as a result of fuel price increases– but this is a risky way to manage transport outcomes

• Decisive changes in transport behaviour are likely to come quickly only through rationing or pricing – but car users resent it

– so this is a tough political challenge

– there need to be clear benefits associated with the change

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“How do you want your kids to live? Do you want to walk or drive to get bread? That's the basis of thinking about cities.”

http://www.resurgence.org/magazine/article518-CITIES-OF-JOY.html

Enrique Penalosa

© 2010 The Futures Company

Andrew Curry

andrew.curry@thefuturescompany.com

+44 (0) 20 7955 1839

Thank you

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Annex : scenario highlights

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