21 st annual international emme users conference 1 2007 emme users conference 12 october, 2007...

21st Annual International EMME Users Conference 1

2007 EMME Users Conference12 October, 2007

Modelling Needs of Peel Region in the Context of the Emerging Greater

Toronto and Hamilton Area

By: Murray McLeod, P. Eng.

Manager of Transportation Planning,

Peel Region, Ontario, Canada

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Purpose

•Transportation Challenges in Peel•Use of EMME Modelling to Measure

Transportation Performance •Use of 3D Graphics to Communicate

Value of Peel Transportation Solutions (a Work in Progress)

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Caledon

Mississauga

Brampton

Peel’s Strategic Location

Hamilton

Halton

Toronto

York

Durham

Peel

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Provincial Policy 2005 : Places to Grow (PTG), A Blueprint for Development

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PTG Forecasts Rapid Population Growth in Suburban 905 Areas

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Source: 1971-2006 Statistics Canada2011-2031 Places to Grow

Population ( in Millions)

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Population ( in Millions)

Peel

York

DurhamHalton

Hamilton

905 Area(Peel, York, Durham,

Halton, and Hamilton)

416 Area(Toronto)

1988

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GO Rail and Bus Service:

A Radial Network

Source: Peel Long Range Transportation Plan Report – September 2005

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Provincial MoveOntario 2020 Announcement, June 2007

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Peel’s Encouragement of Sustainable Transportation in the FutureDaily Trips(millions)

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Auto PassengerWalk & Cycle

Transit

Auto Driver

SustainableTravel Modes

70%

CurrentTrend

AggressiveTransit/TDM

30%

CurrentTrend

1.7 cars/household

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Peel (GTHA) Transit Challenges

•Full daily GO Rail service (e.g. Milton, Georgetown)

•New GO Rail service (Bolton) •New express trains (e.g.

Brampton)•Add circumferential services (GO

Bus and GO Rail)•Enhance local transit network

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Trip Generation

Work Other

Trip Distribution

Work Other

Modal Split

Trip Assignment

School

Apply Growth Factors

Peak Hour

Factors

Airport

ApplyGrowth Factors

Peel Uses a 4-Stage Transportation Forecasting Model (EMME)

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Model Application: Arterial Extension of Highway 427

Origin-Destination plot (Select-Link Analysis)

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Vehicle Kilometres of Travel (VKT) for Peel Arterial Roads

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2001 2011 2021 2031

Years

VK

T(i

n t

ho

usan

ds)

Uncongested Vehicle KM

Congested Vehicle KM

Total +47%

Total +17%

Total +7%

69%

67%

56%

42%

Source: Regional EMME/2 Model

+10%

+40%

+94%

Model Application: 2/3 of Peak Hour Travel on Peel Arterials will be Congested

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Peel (GTHA) Highway/Road Challenges

• Extend key freeways (410, 427)• Selective Widening (e.g. 401 west of

410) • New Freeways (e.g. GTA West Corridor)• Roads to support new development

and transit• Expansion to support inter-regional

travel

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Goods Movement in Peel (Major Freight Hub for Southern Ontario)

Peel Region

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Peel’s Industrial Economy: Freight Centres Around the Pearson Airport

46

10

Freight Centres in Peel Region Freight Centres in Peel Region

24

12

47

66

18

1517

13

2327

38

48

9

22

45

Legend

Service Facility

Yard

WarehouseIntermodalTerminalHighway Network

Note: Circle Size does not correspond to actual size of the facility

36

20

84

Legend Service Facility Yard Warehouse Intermodal Terminal Highway Network

Canadian Cities

US Cities

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Canada-US Trade is Dominated by Trucks on Hwy 401 and QEW (crossing Peel)

Canada-US Trade is Dominated by Trucks on Hwy 401 and QEW (crossing Peel)

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Ontario/Quebec Trade Corridor Announcement and MOU, July 2007

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Peel/GTHA Challenges for Goods Movement

• Peel/Private Sector Goods Movement Planning Partnership

• Strategic Goods Movement Plan for Peel

• Improvements to NAFTA Corridors• Improvements to Border Crossings• Pursue Multi-Modal Gateway

Solutions

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Transportation Performance as a Driver of Transportation Solutions

•Transportation issues in Peel•Assessing Peel/GTHA for

transportation performance •Use of 3D graphics to

communicate value of Peel transportation solutions (interested in your views)

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Transportation Performance Measurement Framework (Passengers & Goods)

Performance Measures

– Time/speed– Network connectivity

redundancy– Choice/mode– Reliability– Service Quality– Safety– Air emissions

Economic

Social/Quality of Life

Environment

Valuation

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Highway 401 AADT Growth (1982, 1987, 1989, 1992)

Oakville

Oshawa

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Speed/Flow Performance of Highway 401Westbound section from Avenue Road to Renforth Drive (1995)

MTO Compass System Data

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Tim

e T

rave

lled

(min

)

Distance Travelled (km)

AM Peak Congestion Doubles Travel Time on Highway 401

Westbound Collectors, Avenue Road to Renforth Drive (1995)

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Speed/Volume Performance of a Freeway Lane

Highway Capacity Manual, 1985

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Calgary Congestion Study

Woudsma, 2006

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Woudsma, 2006

Congestion in Calgary over time

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Woudsma, 2006

Morning Peak Congestion Influence Surface

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2001 Peel Population by Traffic Zone

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2001 Peel Population

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2001 GTA Population

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Projected 2031 GTA Employment (PTG)

Soberman Report, Nov 2006

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Employment Change 2001 to 2031

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Density of Transit Use in 2001 (TTS)

Soberman Report, Nov 2006

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GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time)

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GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time)

Existing GO Rail Service

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GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time)

Express GO Rail Service from Bramalea Station

Existing GO Rail Service Plus a New Bolton Station

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AM Peak Hour Freeflow Road Network Travel Time(to Highway 401 at Yonge St.)

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AM Peak Hour Congested Road Network Travel Time(to Highway 401 at Yonge St.)

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AM Peak Hour Travel Time(to Highway 401 at Yonge St.)

Free flow Road Network Congested Road Network

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Other 3D Mapping Applications

– Accessibility to Jobs– Impact of Flow Management of Highways– Impact of HOV Lanes– Impact of Other TDM Measures– Impact of Tolls

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Final Thoughts

• EMME is a tool to measure the impacts of future transportation improvements

• ARCGIS is a tool to visualize the impacts of future transportation improvements

• ARCGIS helps communicate the value of transportation improvements (for transportation decision-makers, the public, politicians and senior funding agencies)

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Special thanks to:

ESRI Canada: Alex Miller

Matt English

Susan Enyedy-Goldner

Questions??

Demonstration