2nd annual malthus lecture "feeding the world sustainably" by ismail serageldin
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Feeding the World Sustainably: Reflections, Issues, and Suggestions
Ismail Serageldin2nd Malthus Lecture
IFPRI – Washington, DC14 July 2011
Outline
• Challenging Malthus• On Hunger • On Hunger And Poverty• Food Security• The Gender Dimension• The Environmental Dimension• The Role Of science• The Power Of Policy• Transforming Global Agriculture• Envoi
Challenging Malthus
Challenging Malthus
• Malthus was wrong• He could never have
imagined a world with 6.7 billion people
• Human ingenuity was able to provide more food out of the same resources
• Hunger and famine persist for other reasons
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In USA Today: 20 % Of Children and 65% Of Adults Are Obese
The Abolitionists
William Wilberforced. 1833
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Abolishing Slavery
Abraham Lincoln Frederick Douglas
We Must Abolish Hunger!
We must become
The New Abolitionists!
So far, we could abolish hunger…But… Things can change…
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World Population, in Billions 1950-2050
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.
Malthus Strikes Back!
• Malthus was wrong up to now
• What about a world of 10 Billion, with richer diets and increasing animal proteins?
• What about our energy policies and climate change?
On Hunger
We take abundant food for granted
BUTAbout One Billion persons are chronically
malnourished!
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/es/Hunger_Portal/Hunger_Map_2010b.pdf
Sub-Saharan Africa Remains most vulnerable region
After prolonged drought, Again, Today, Famine
Stalks Millions in East Africa
(Source: The Economist July 9, 2011, p.35
Humanitarian Food Aid will continue to
be needed in hotspots and must
be provided for
Trends in world hunger, 2010
Global Hunger Index, 2010
Three equally weighted indicators constitute the GHI:
1. Undernourished as % of the population (reflecting the share of the population with insufficient dietary energy intake)
2. Underweight as % of Children < 5 years old (indicating the proportion of children suffering from low weight for their age)
3. Mortality rate of Children < 5 years old (partially reflecting the fatal synergy between inadequate dietary intake and unhealthy environments)
Global Hunger Index, 2010
• > 5.0 Low hunger
• 5.0 - 9.9 Moderate hunger
• 10.0 - 19.9 Serious
• 20.0 - 29.9 Alarming
• ≥ 30.0 Extremely
alarmingThe index ranks countries on a 100-point scale, with 0 being the best score (no hunger) and 100 being the worst, although neither of these extremes is reached in practice.
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GNP per Capita and Global Hunger Index, 2010
2010
GH
I
GNP per Capita, 2005-07
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Congo, Dem. Rep.
BurundiEritrea
EthiopiaChad
Sierra LeoneAngola
Djibouti
Cameroon
Congo, Rep.
NamibiaBotswana
GabonMauritius
South Africa
SwazilandGhana
MauritaniaLesotho UgandaCote d’Ivoire
SenegalBenin
Guinea
Malawi Gambia
MaliKenya
Nigeria
Tanzania
Togo
Guinea-Bissau
MozambiqueRwanda
Eritrea Zambia
Niger
Central African Rep.Madagascar
Comoros
Burkina Faso
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
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GNP per Capita, 2005-07
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Yemen
MoroccoSyrian Arab. Rep.
Jordan
Egypt
TunisiaAlgeria
Lebanon
Iran, Islamic Republic
TurkeyLibya Saudi Arabia
2010
GH
I
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
GNP per Capita and Global Hunger Index, 2010
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
Global Hunger Index, 2010
33
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Kevin Carter’s Pulitzer Prize winning photo 1994
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Kevin Carter(1960 - 1994)
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On Hunger And Poverty
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The Primary Cause Of Hunger Is Extreme Poverty
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Amartya Sen on Famines
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Norman Borlaug(1914 – 2009)
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Food whether you buy it or grow it yourself
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Observation: Many rural poor continue to pay for their food needs
Source: cited in http://www.ifad.org/rural/rpr2010/background/9.pdf
Sellers
Buyers
Self-Sufficient
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So we have to reduce the price f food, by increasing production
sustainably, reducing waste, and ensuring access
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What about the poor small-holder farmers who are major producers of food? They will become even
poorer…
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Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update)Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2002
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n o
f u
nm
ille
d r
ice
(mil
lio
n t
)
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
Ric
e p
rice
s (2
002
US
$/to
n)
Rice production
Riceprice
Raise productivity for small-holder farmers faster than the prices drop
Trends in world rice production and price adjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
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Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update)Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets
Rice production
Riceprice
Raise productivity of small-holder farmers faster than the price of food drops
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2002
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n o
f u
nm
ille
d r
ice
(mil
lio
n t
)
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
Ric
e p
rice
s (2
002
US
$/to
n)
World rice production and prices adjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
49/480
Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times,
access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality,
produced in a sustainable manner.
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An Enormous Gap Exists Between the Rich and the Poor…
51/48051
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53/480Rich and Poor in Sao Paulo
source: http://mindblog.dericbownds.net/2007/10/rich-and-poor.html
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It is not just the absence of income that defines poverty
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It is marginalization, deprivation and social exclusion
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Loss of dignity
57/480Social Exclusion
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Rural and Urban Poverty in Developing Countries
Source: IFPRI estimate from World Bank data.
Rural poor70.0%
Urban poor
30.0%
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The Ultra Poor require special help
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Much Economic Analysis Erases the Human Factor
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Thoughtful use of multiple indicators for analysis will lead
to richer and more nuanced policy and program design
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MPAT:Multidimensional Poverty Assessment Tool
(Developed by IFAD)
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MPAT
Organizational diagram of MPAT's components and subcomponents
MPAT
7 Farm Assets7.1 Land tenure7.2 Land quality7.3 Crop inputs7.4 Livestock/aquaculture
8 Non-Farm Assets8.1 Employment & skills8.2 Financial services
8.3 Fixed assets & remittances
2. Domestic Water Supply2.1 Quality2.2 Availability2.3 Access
1 Food & Nutrition 1.1Security Consumption1.2 Access stability1.3 Nutrition quality
6 Education6.1 Quality6.2 Availability6.3 Access
3. Health & Healthcare3.1 Health status3.2 Access & affordability3.3 Healthcare quality
4. Sanitation & Hygiene4.1Toilet facility4.2Waste management4.3 Hygiene practices
10 Gender & Social Equality 10.1 Access to education10.2 Access to healthcare
10.3 Social equality
9 Exposure & Resilience to Shocks
9.1 Exposure9.2 Coping ability
9.3 Recovery ability
5 Housing, Clothing & Energy5.1 Housing structure quality5.2 Clothing 5.3 Energy sources
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Urban poverty
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Reaching the Poorest
Garbage pickers in the Philippines
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Urban Poverty
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Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger
• Reduce the price of food
• Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor
• Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
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The Urban Poor mostly buy their food
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And food is a major part of their budget – Hence their wellbeing is very sensitive to the
price of food
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Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger
• Reduce the price of food
• Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor
• Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
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The poor lack the skills for the high Tech jobs the market offers, and are unlikely to get these skills quickly
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Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger
• Reduce the price of food
• Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor
• Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
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Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger
• Reduce the price of food
• Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor
• Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
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Urban Agriculture on roofs and
between buildings on vacant land
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On Hunger And Rural Poverty
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Reform Policies And Markets
• Remove urban bias– Roads– Education– Health– Etc.
• Improve access to markets• Reduce post harvest losses
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Challenges Facing Small Farms
• Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
• Low world market prices for agriculture.
• Climate change. • HIV/AIDS • Continuing population growth that is
making small farms smaller. • No political voice.
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Challenges Facing Small Farms
• Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
• Low world market prices for agriculture.
• Climate change. • HIV/AIDS • Continuing population growth that is
making small farms smaller. • No political voice.
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Challenges Facing Small Farms
• Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
• Low world market prices for agriculture.
• Climate change. • HIV/AIDS • Continuing population growth that is
making small farms smaller. • No political voice.
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Challenges Facing Small Farms
• Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
• Low world market prices for agriculture.
• Climate change. • HIV/AIDS • Continuing population growth that is
making small farms smaller. • No political voice.
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Challenges Facing Small Farms
• Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
• Low world market prices for agriculture.
• Climate change. • HIV/AIDS • Continuing population growth that is
making small farms smaller. • No political voice.
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Challenges Facing Small Farms
• Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
• Low world market prices for agriculture.
• Climate change. • HIV/AIDS • Continuing population growth that is
making small farms smaller. • No political voice.
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Challenges Facing Small Farms
• Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
• Low world market prices for agriculture.
• Climate change. • HIV/AIDS • Continuing population growth that is
making small farms smaller. • No political voice.
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Food Security
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Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times,
access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality,
produced in a sustainable manner.
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Food Security
• Not Just production, also access• Not Just output, also process• Not Just technology, also policy• Not Just global, also national• Not Just national, also household• Not Just rural, also urban• Not Just amount, also content
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Food Security
• Not Just production, also access• Not Just output, also process• Not Just technology, also policy• Not Just global, also national• Not Just national, also household• Not Just rural, also urban• Not Just amount, also content
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Food Security
• Not Just production, also access• Not Just output, also process• Not Just technology, also policy• Not Just global, also national• Not Just national, also household• Not Just rural, also urban• Not Just amount, also content
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Food Security
• Not Just production, also access• Not Just output, also process• Not Just technology, also policy• Not Just global, also national• Not Just national, also household• Not Just rural, also urban• Not Just amount, also content
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Food Security
• Not Just production, also access• Not Just output, also process• Not Just technology, also policy• Not Just global, also national• Not Just national, also household• Not Just rural, also urban• Not Just amount, also content
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Food Security
• Not Just production, also access• Not Just output, also process• Not Just technology, also policy• Not Just global, also national• Not Just national, also household• Not Just rural, also urban• Not Just amount, also content
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Food Security
• Not Just production, also access• Not Just output, also process• Not Just technology, also policy• Not Just global, also national• Not Just national, also household• Not Just rural, also urban• Not Just amount, also content
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Food Security
• Not Just production, also access• Not Just output, also process• Not Just technology, also policy• Not Just global, also national• Not Just national, also household• Not Just rural, also urban• Not Just amount, also content
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Understanding Food Security
Short Term Medium Term
Long Term
Local Access, Nutrition
National Policies Research Investment
Global Sustainable Production, Fair Trade
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Understanding Food Security
Short Term Medium Term
Long Term
Local Access, Nutrition
National Policies Research Investment
Global Sustainable Production, Fair Trade
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Global Food ProductionMust Grow by+40% by 2030
&+70% by 2050
Opening statement by IFAD President at the Jeddah Economic Forum 2010: “The Global Economy in 2020” http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2010/jeddah.htm
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Food Security and Production
• Production is a necessary but not sufficient condition for food security
• Focusing on the small-holder farmer in developing countries is key to environmental protection, poverty reduction and food security
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“We are all on this earth as guests of the green plants and those who tend them.”
-- M.S. Swaminathan
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The response is to produce differently, not less
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Seven Statements About Food Security
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• Increase production and productivity
• Better management
• Reduce losses, reduce waste
• Manage vulnerability (CC)
• BioFortification
• BioFuels
• International Trade
Food Security: Seven Statements
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• Increase production and productivity
• Better management
• Reduce losses, reduce waste
• Manage vulnerability (CC)
• BioFortification
• BioFuels
• International Trade
Food Security: Seven Statements
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How to reduce prices without harming the poor farmers who
produce food?
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Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update)Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets
Rice production
Riceprice
Raise productivity of small-holder farmers faster than the price of food drops
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2002
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n o
f u
nm
ille
d r
ice
(mil
lio
n t
)
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
Ric
e p
rice
s (2
002
US
$/to
n)
World rice production and prices adjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
123/480
• Increase production and productivity
• Better management
• Reduce losses, reduce waste
• Manage vulnerability (CC)
• BioFortification
• BioFuels
• International Trade
Food Security: Seven Statements
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SRI has increased output dramatically, with the same inputs
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• Increase production and productivity
• Better management
• Reduce losses, reduce waste
• Manage vulnerability (CC)
• BioFortification
• BioFuels
• International Trade
Food Security: Seven Statements
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In the poor countries, post-harvest losses reach up to 30% of the crops
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Reduce Post-Harvest Losses
128/480Storage and post-harvest losses
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In the rich countries: Up to 30% of cooked food is thrown out
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Up to 20% of purchased food is thrown out unused, in its wrapper
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X
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• Increase production and productivity
• Better management
• Reduce losses, reduce waste
• Manage vulnerability (CC)
• BioFortification
• BioFuels
• International Trade
Food Security: Seven Statements
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Homeless, nameless…
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Address Short-term Vulnerability
• Most farmers live precariously
• Downside is devastating
• Climate change is increasing vulnerability
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Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings
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Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings
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Extension Must bring Research To These Farmers
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• Increase production and productivity
• Better management
• Reduce losses, reduce waste
• Manage vulnerability (CC)
• BioFortification
• BioFuels
• International Trade
Food Security: Seven Statements
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Better Nutrition
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White and Golden Rice
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• Increase production and productivity
• Better management
• Reduce losses, reduce waste
• Manage vulnerability (CC)
• BioFortification
• BioFuels
• International Trade
Food Security: Seven Statements
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In addition to the first generation of biofuels (Ethanol from Corn)
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Ethanol from Corn contributes to 2008
food price spike
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It is wrong to burn the food of the
poor to drive the cars of the rich!
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We must move to second generation biofuels
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• Increase production and productivity
• Better management
• Reduce losses, reduce waste
• Manage vulnerability (CC)
• BioFortification
• BioFuels
• International Trade
Food Security: Seven Statements
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US Ag Subsidies 1994-2005
% of recipients
% of Pay-ments
Number of recipients
Payments Received
Payments per recipient
Top 1% 23% 31,294 $33.7 Billion $1.07 million
Top 4% 50% 125,176 $71.3 Billion $569,650
Top 10% 72% 312,940 $104 Billion $332,793
Top 20% 87% 625,880 $126 Billion $200,946
Lower 80% 13% 2,503,522 $18 Billion $7,211
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Cows Vs. People
• A typical cow in the European Union receives a government subsidy of $2.20 a day –
• more than what 2.5 billion of the world's poorest people live on every day.
• Twice what 1.2 billion of the world's poorest people live on every day.
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$2.20 / day $0.90 / day
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• Increase production and productivity
• Better management
• Reduce losses, reduce waste
• Manage vulnerability (CC)
• BioFortification
• BioFuels
• International Trade
Food Security: Seven Statements
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The Gender Dimension
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And We Must Never Forget the Gender Dimension…
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Women In Africa
• Produce80% of the food
• Receive 10% of the wages
• Own1% of the land
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Women Empowerment
• Essential to recognize the gender dimension of agriculture
• Empowering Women results in major improvements in infant mortality, school enrolments, child morbidity
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Women Empowerment
• Women have unequal opportunity in:– Education– Health care– Income– Credit– Employment– Assets– Decision-making
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The key vector to fight infant mortality and child malnutrition is
Maternal Health
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From the sixth month of pregnancy…
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…To the 18th month of life…
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The period when children are most vulnerable to hunger
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Malnurished mothers give birth to low birth weight babiesand
Malnourished children often suffer from growth retardation and weight loss
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Breast Milk has the Best Nutritional Value
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A Healthy Mother…
• Gives birth to a baby of normal weight.
• Breast feed her baby well.
• Will be able to find good food to wean her baby.
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The Environmental Dimension
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Climate ChangeThe Most serious Issue Facing Humanity
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Hurricane Bonnie
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Source: National Geographic, August, 2005
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Source: National Geographic, August, 2005
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Can this be just a “natural phenomenon”?
NO!
178/480GHG emissions are a key contributor
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Should we be concerned?
YES!
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182/480Source: The Economist – The World in 2007
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How serious is the problem?
VERY!
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The Nile:Reaches Cairo with 12 million Tons of salts
Reaches the sea with 34 million tons of salts
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Impact on Nile Delta
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But Also increased Floods, Droughts, Forest Fires and Desertification
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Climate Change and
Food Security:
Changes in Length of growing period 2000-2005
Thronton, et.al., cited in Greg Mock and Paul Steele, “Power to the poor: tapping the wealth of ecosystems”, in Environment, vol 48: 1; Jan/Feb 2006, p. 15
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We need urgent action on bothMitigation
&Adaptation
191/480
Mitigation: Reducing Emissions
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How will all that affect HUNGER?
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We observe…
• Floods in Pakistan
• Droughts in Russia
• Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA
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We observe…
• Floods in Pakistan
• Droughts in Russia
• Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA
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Droughts and Floods?
198/480
Yes, The Models predict that Both will co-exist
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We observe…
• Floods in Pakistan
• Droughts in Russia
• Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA
200/480
Hurricanes and floods
in USA
201/480
All these intemperate weather conditions lead to stresses on
food production
202/480
The Food on which we all depend
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Drought Devastates Agriculture
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That leads to More Hunger
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Above all, Science must be mobilized
206/480
The Role Of Science
207/480
From the Green Revolution to the Doubly Green Revolution
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AREA SAVEDIndia -- All Cereals,1960-1990
Total production: 1961: 87million tons -- 1990 :197 million tons
50
100
150
200
250
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Millions of Hectares
AREA USED
AREA SAVED
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Doubly green revolution
• More genetically diverse crops• Less chemical inputs (IPM and other
means)• Integrated soil, water and nutrient
management• Small holder farming system context,
environmentally and socio-economically
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Recognize The Gender Dimension
220/480
Promoting Alternatives to Slash and Burn
221/480
AlwaysPro-Poor
Pro-Women Pro-Environment
222/480
A Double Shift in the Research Paradigm:
-- Contextualization-- The new life sciences
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• Land
• Water
• Plants
• Animals
• The Role Of Aquatic Resources
The Role Of Science
224/480
• Land
• Water
• Plants
• Animals
• The Role Of Aquatic Resources
The Role Of Science
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Land Use Transitions
Source: J.A. Foley, et.al., Global Consequences of Land Use, in Science, 22 July 2005, v.309, pp.570-574
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• Land
• Water
• Plants
• Animals
• The Role Of Aquatic Resources
The Role Of Science
228/480
Water Is Also a Constraint
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One Calorie = One Liter
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More Crop Per Drop!
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• Land
• Water
• Plants
• Animals
• The Role Of Aquatic Resources
The Role Of Science
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Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
Yield (t/ha)
Ceiling
Current
239/480
Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
Raise the Yield Ceiling
Yield (t/ha)
Ceiling
Current
A
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Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
Raise the Yield Ceiling
Yield (t/ha)
Ceiling
Current
A
241/480
Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
Raise the Yield Ceiling
Close the Yield Gap
Yield (t/ha)
Ceiling
Current
A B
242/480
Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
Raise the Yield Ceiling
Close the Yield Gap
Yield (t/ha)
Ceiling
Current
A B
243/480
Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
Raise the Yield Ceiling
Close the Yield Gap
Sustain the Current Yield
Yield (t/ha)
Ceiling
Current
A B C
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Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
Raise the Yield Ceiling
Close the Yield Gap
Sustain the Current Yield
Yield (t/ha)
Ceiling
Current
A B C
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Let’s take them by turn
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Technologies for Increasing the Yield Potential
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Different Plant Types of Rice Conventional Improved NPT
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New Plant Type Rice
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Technologies for Closing the Yield Gap
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Biological cost of weeds, Diseases and Insects
CropPercent of Yield Potential
Weeds Disease Insects
Rice 10.6 9.0 27.3
Wheat 9.8 9.5 5.4
Maize 13.1 9.6 12.9
Millets & Sorghum
17.9 10.3 9.5
Barley 8.8 8.3 3.9
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Biological Control
252/480
IPM: Working With Nature
• Bio-control• Pheromone trap• Need-based chemicals• Host-plant resistance• Etc.
253/480
Reaction to Bacterial BlightResistant Susceptible
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Stem-Borer Larvae from Transgenic Rice (top) and Control (bottom)
255/480
4. Raise Agricultural Productivity
• Productivity must rise faster than price declines to generate surpluses for the small-holder farmers and reduce their poverty as their cheaper products help reduce the poverty in the cities
• Measure in terms of Total Factor Productivity (land, water, labor, energy and chemical inputs)
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• increasing the yield potential
• closing the yield gap, including pest
management
• Soil, water & nutrient management
• Labor & capital input management
• developing nutritious crops (more later)
Technologies Needed For:
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• Land
• Water
• Plants
• Animals
• The Role Of Aquatic Resources
The Role Of Science
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Increasing demand for feed
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A Huge Increase In Feed Requirements
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Not Just for Food
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Conversion Into Proteins(% of Feed that is converted to Protein)
Source: Time magazine, 18 July 2011, p. 29
Beef Pork Poultry Fish
25%
13%
5%
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Conversion Into Proteins(% of Feed that is converted to Protein)
Source: Time magazine, 18 July 2011, p. 29
Beef Pork Poultry Fish
25%
13%
5%
30%
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• Land
• Water
• Plants
• Animals
• The Role Of Aquatic Resources
The Role Of Science
266/480Source: William S. Alevizon, Pisces Guide to Caribbean Reef Ecology, Gulf Publishing Company (1994).
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Global Seafood consumption has increased dramatically, and natural fish stocks are heavily overfished
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Global Aquaculture Production:1950 = one million tons2008 = 47.3 million tons
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But Aquaculture is still only about 50% of consumption in 2011
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Our Reefs Today:The Challenge and the Response
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• Land
• Water
• Plants
• Animals
• The Role Of Aquatic Resources
The Role Of Science
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But
What about
Biotechnology
?
The Role Of Science
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Biotechnology
• Promise and perils• Partnerships for benign
applications• Public-private• CGIAR-NARS-AROs-NGOs
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Global Area of Biotech Crops.Million of Hectares (1996 to 2009)
1996 2009200820072006200520042003200220012000199919981997
200
180
140
120
80
60
40
20
0
100
160
14 million farmers in 25 countries planted 134 million hectares (330 million acres in 2009, a sustained increase of 7% or 9 million hectares (22 million acres) compared to 2008.
DevelopingIndustrials
Total HectaresTrait Hectares
Source: Clive James, 2009.
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Modern biotechnology
• Raises profound issues• Despite controversy, has enormous
promise• Can do things we cannot do by
conventional breeding – e.g. Vitamin A rice
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It is a tool, like any other.It should not be demonized nor
assumed to be a miracle.
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The Power Of Policy
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Policy Counts
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Sustainable development does not mean that people will live worse…
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Let’s look at income and health
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Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade
(Thousands)
Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
19871980
1970
19501961
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
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Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade
(Thousands)
Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
19871980
1970
19501961
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
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Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade
(Thousands)
Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
19871980
1970
19501961
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
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Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade
(Thousands)
Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
19871980
1970
19501961
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
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That is to say that well conceived, well targeted policies can be the equivalent of a general increase in average incomes by 8X with
laissez-faire
8X!!!
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Transforming Global Agriculture
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Agriculture Is A Complex FieldSummary for Decision Makers of the Global Report, IAASTD, 2009
Source: http://www.agassessment.org/docs/IAASTD_GLOBAL_SDM_JAN_2008.pdf
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Managing Agriculture is a complex task:Summary for Decision Makers of the Global Report, IAASTD, 2009
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Ten Commandments For Global Agriculture
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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1. Reform Policies And Markets
• Globally: Fair trade
• Locally: – Remove urban bias– Improve access to markets– reduce post harvest losses
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1. Reform Policies And Markets
• Globally: Fair trade
• Locally: – Remove urban bias (educ., health, etc.)– Improve access to markets– reduce post harvest losses
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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So, dealing with global poverty requires that we address rural poverty…AND
A special focus on small-holder farmers in developing countries in particular to address the problem of food security
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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3. Husband Natural Resources
• Agriculture is the major interface between people and nature
• Sustainable development is beneficial for all
• Resource degradation hits the poor worst
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The Most Important Environmental Action Is to Reduce the Need for
More Land Under Cultivation
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It will preserve habitats and biodiversity
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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4. Raise Agricultural Productivity
• Productivity must rise faster than price declines to generate surpluses for the small-holder farmers and reduce their poverty as their cheaper products help reduce the poverty in the cities
• Measure in terms of Total Factor Productivity (land, water, labor, energy and chemical inputs)
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Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update)Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets
Rice production
Riceprice
Raise productivity of small-holder farmers faster than the price of food drops
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2002
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n o
f u
nm
ille
d r
ice
(mil
lio
n t
)
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
Ric
e p
rice
s (2
002
US
$/to
n)
World rice production and prices adjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
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Future Challenges
To Produce More Food
Increasing
Population
Less Water
Less Land
Less Labor
Less Chemicals
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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5. Improve Nutritional Content
• Enormous health benefits
• Bio-fortification is just the beginning
• Edible vaccines?
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Without With
Sweet Potatoes with and Without Beta-Carotene
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Longer, More Productive Lives
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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6. Address Short-term Vulnerability
• Most farmers live precariously
• Downside is devastating
• Climate change is increasing vulnerability
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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7. Empower Women
• Essential to recognize the gender dimension of agriculture
• Empowering Women results in major improvements in infant mortality, school enrolments, child morbidity
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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8. Reach Out To The Ultra-Poor
• Market incentives do not work for the ultra-poor
• Trickle-down does not work
• Special Programs will be needed
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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9. Support Science
• We need more support for science in developing countries
• Not just technology
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332/480332
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The Divide in S&T Capacity
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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RhetoricDeclarationsPlansTargets
Action
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“We have the capacity to eliminate
hunger from the face of the earth in
our lifetime. We need only the
will.”
President John F. KennedyWorld Food Congress 1963
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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action
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Envoi
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All the Parts Are Essential:They Reinforce Each Other
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The Whole Is More Than the Sum of the Parts
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Diagnosis
• How to find the key pressure points in the system
• How to choose interventions that will have maximum impact on these
• Must focus on raising productivity in the complex ecosystem of the small holder farm
• Must bring science and other inputs to the farmers
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No policy or program will ever be sufficient alone
We need a range of interventions…
Many existing policies need to be adjusted and many new programs need to be developed.
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Several policies and programs need to be developed for:
• Agriculture• Environment• Social Issues• Political Issues• Participation• Gender• Urbanization• Poverty• Infrastructure• Economy
• Trade• Marketing• Public/Private
Interface• Finance and credit• Local, National,
Régional and International Issues
• And more …
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It can be Mastered and Solved
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Dare to dream!
Dare to be bold!
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The specter of Malthus still haunts the world…
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We can abolish Hunger
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Our groupThe New Abolitionists
Limited size, limited resources
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The Oppositioncynics, entrenched interests & the inertia of current injustice
Large size, unlimited resources
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But we will surprise the World!
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Thank You
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The images used in this presentation are strictly for the educational purpose of this lecture. Any use by anyone for
any other purpose should be after consulting the copyright owners of
these pictures
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